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Category: John Dewan’s Stat of the Week

  • Stat of the Week: Who was August’s top defensive player?

    In a crowded group of highly-talented center fielders, it has been tough for Adam Engel to stand out from the rest. But in August he did. He’s our selection as the MLB Defensive Player of the Month.

    Engel finished the month with eight Defensive Runs Saved, the most by any outfielder. Half of that total was accumulated from three amazing home run robberies in a seven-day span. Engel snagged one from Greg Bird on Aug. 6, Kyle Higashioka the next day and Yonder Alonso on Aug. 12. He’s the first player in the 15 seasons for which we’ve tracked home run robberies to have three in a week’s span. His three home run robberies are the most of anyone in the majors this season.

    Engel has saved six runs this season after costing his team a run in center field in his rookie season, 2017. One change to his defensive game is that he’s playing deeper this year. Engel was usually the shallowest playing outfielder or close to it in the various AL ballparks last season, but he’s moved back eight to 12 feet in most parks. That may have given him a better chance at those would-be home runs.

    Engel is not typically a leaper – he has only four jumping catches all season (by contrast, Billy Hamilton has 16), but he is a sprinter. His 57 sprinting catches trail only Ender Inciarte’s 72 for most in MLB by a center fielder.

    Engel has also made improvements in his arm rating. Last season, he allowed 54 percent of runners to advance an extra-base on hits, and recorded only one unaided outfield assist (without a cutoff man). The advance rate against him is similar this season, but he has three unaided assists.

    The runner-up for the August award was Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, a defensive standard-setter, whose 89 DRS are the most in the majors from 2015 to 2017. For Engel to beat Kiermaier out, you know he really earned the award.

  • Stat of the Week: Shifting is at an all-time high

    Stat of the Week: Shifting is at an all-time high

    Something monumental happened in baseball this past weekend—and it wasn’t the Orioles being given a nationally televised game.

    By the end of play on Sunday, teams had shifted on balls in play 28,249 times, surpassing the previous record of 28,130 set in 2016. They are now on pace to shift just under 35,000 times this season, which would represent a 31 percent increase over last season’s total.

    Shifts had been increasing steadily since 2009, when Sports Info Solutions first started tracking them, until declining slightly in 2017. But they now appear to be on the rise again. It’s not just one or two teams carrying the pack, either—25 of the 30 teams have increased their shift usage this season.

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    The Phillies have made numerous headlines this year for their proclivity toward shifting under new manager Gabe Kapler. This shows itself in the data, with no other team on pace to increase their shift usage more than the Phillies. If they continue shifting at their current rate, they will shift nearly 800 more times on balls in play in 2018 than they did in 2017.

    Three AL Central teams follow right behind the Phillies in the Royals, Twins and Tigers, all on pace to increase their shift totals by more than 600. Whether those increases are related or not is hard to say, although all three teams still trail the White Sox, who shifted 1,490 times on balls in play last season and could potentially become the first team to reach the 2,000-shift mark this season.

    While teams are shifting more than ever, there are still improvements that can be made. SIS’s BIS-D software provides a recommendation for every player in MLB as to whether that player is a shift candidate or not, and about one-third of shifts this season have been against players for whom the software recommends playing a standard defense. There have also been about 18,000 balls in play where the defense did not shift when the system suggested one.

    How has the shift impacted the performance of those who get shifted? On the whole, the shift lowered shift candidates’ batting average on grounders and short line drives (BAGSL) by 23 points, while it had the opposite effect against all other batters, raising their BAGSL by 4 points.

    Weighted* Batting Average on Groundballs and Short Line Drives, 2017-18 

    BIS-D Recommendation No Shift Shift Difference
    Shift Candidate .271 .248 Helps by 23 points
    Non Shift Candidate .275 .279 Hurts by 4 points

    *The averages are weighted such that players with extreme shift tendencies (high or low) are not over-represented, thus separating the effect of the shift from batter quality. 

    With shifts comprising a larger percentage of balls in play than ever before, it’s never been more important to make sure that the correct batters are being shifted.

  • Stat of the Week: NL Total Runs/MVP Race is Tight

    The National League MVP race is shaping up to be incredibly tight with a little more than a month left in the regular season, and it parallels the race for the lead in the Total Runs stat.

    Total Runs combines Runs Created (offense), Baserunning Runs and Defensive Runs Saved, along with a positional adjustment (but not a park adjustment) to account for a player’s total value.

    The candidates in the top spots among the playoff contenders are Cardinals third baseman Matt Carpenter, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story and third baseman Nolan Arenado, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman and Cubs second baseman Javier Baez. Each has his strong points.

    Most Total Runs – NL Players
    Team
    Matt Carpenter Cardinals 115
    Trevor Story Rockies 115
    Freddie Freeman Braves 113
    Nolan Arenado Rockies 112
    Javier Baez Cubs 111
    Jacob deGrom Mets 110

    Carpenter went through a massive struggle early this season, with his batting average standing at .140 through games of May 15 (he had notable issues with defensive shifts). But since then, he’s arguably been as good as any player in baseball. He’s hitting .323/.430/.700 with 30 home runs in his last 82 games.

    Carpenter does it on the defensive end as well. Though he’s cost the Cardinals three runs at second base, he’s saved them a combined 10 at the corner infield spots. His seven Defensive Runs Saved at third base are the most he’s had in his career. Carpenter’s value is accentuated by his having 38 more total runs than the Cardinal with the second-most, Marcell Ozuna.

    Story has had an offensive bounceback, reestablishing himself as one of the top-hitting shortstops in baseball. Since June 26, he’s hitting .335/.373/.601. He’s created 83 runs, which surpasses his 2017 Runs Created total by 15 runs. He’s also saved four runs at shortstop, continuing his solid defensive reputation.

    Arenado’s Defensive Runs Saved total is surprisingly low (he’s saved three runs after averaging 21 the last five seasons). But his contributions with the bat remain as stellar as they’ve ever been. If Arenado has a strong defensive finish to the season, he could finish in the top three in Total Runs for the third straight season.

    Freeman is bidding to win his first batting title. He’s been a great hitter and has also been terrific in the field with seven Defensive Runs Saved, which ranks tied for third among first basemen. Though Freeman’s slugging percentage is down from 2017, it still looks impressive relative to offensive numbers throughout baseball. Freeman is one of two Braves with at least 100 Total Runs. Ozzie Albies is the other.

    Baez is highly touted by Cubs fans and he’s in the thick of the race. Many feel he’s been worth more than the six runs he’s saved the team at second base and shortstop. Since June 26, he’s hitting .333/.354/.644 with 38 RBI in 44 games. Similar to Carpenter, Baez has a sizable edge on his next-closest teammate, Willson Contreras, who has 84 Total Runs.

    Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom is one run behind Baez in the Total Runs race. He’s not a serious MVP contender, but is noted here for the amazing season he’s having in spite of a low wins total. He and Max Scherzer are nearly even in the race for most Total Runs among pitchers, just ahead of Red Sox ace Chris Sale.

    The gap between the top performers is small enough that it looks like whoever closes the season the best will come out on top in the Total Runs race and perhaps win the MVP as well.

  • Stat of the Week: The Diamondbacks’ Amazing Defense

    BY MARK SIMON

    Though we shone a spotlight on the Milwaukee Brewers’ defense last week, we neglected to mention a team that was just a notch behind them.

    That team has since surpassed the Brewers statistically and currently has no equals on the defensive front—the Arizona Diamondbacks.

    The Diamondbacks have 108 Defensive Runs Saved this season. If that total holds, it will be the most since Sports Info Solutions began compiling the stat in 2003. The mark of 107 was set by the Cubs when they won the World Series in 2016.

    What makes them great?

    The Diamondbacks do so well defensively because they are good just about everywhere and great in more areas than any other team.

    Arizona’s fielders have saved at least three runs at every defensive position except one, third base, where they’ve cost themselves one run. The Diamondbacks have saved at least 10 runs at five positions: pitcher, catcher, shortstop, center field and right field. They are MLB’s leader in Defensive Runs Saved at pitcher, catcher and right field.

    What’s impressive is the group effort that is responsible for the lead at those three spots. The Diamondbacks have three starting pitchers who rate near the top in pitcher defense: Patrick Corbin (5 DRS), Zack Greinke (4) and Zack Godley (4). Corbin’s numbers come from his ability handling the area around the mound (especially on the third base side). Greinke and Godley have also played a role in limiting the running game, with five stolen bases allowed in only 13 attempts against them.

    Their three catchers—Jeff Mathis, John Ryan Murphy and Alex Avila—split playing time almost evenly. Mathis, one of the top pitch blockers and pitch framers in the game, is tied for the lead among all catchers with nine Defensive Runs Saved, with Murphy and Avila saving four each and also contributing largely in pitch framing.

    In right field, the combination of Jon Jay and Chris Owings has paired to save 11 runs (both got time there waiting for Steven Souza Jr. to return from injury). Owings has proven to be quite versatile, saving five runs in both center and right field.

    The team’s individual leader in Defensive Runs Saved is shortstop Nick Ahmed with 14. Ahmed has flirted with the lead among shortstops in that stat, and is currently tied with Addison Russell for the NL’s top spot, two runs behind overall leader Andrelton Simmons.

    Ahmed stands out because of outstanding arm strength and accuracy. His 98.4 percent good throw rating is the best among shortstops this season.

    Veteran outfielder Jarrod Dyson ranks second on the team with 10 Defensive Runs Saved, eight of which came in center field, where he filled in for A.J. Pollock during Pollock’s stint on the disabled list. Dyson’s laurels include a pair of home run-robbing catches.

    The shift

    Under second-year manager Torey Lovullo, the Diamondbacks have more than doubled their shift usage this season. They now rank 11th in MLB in shift usage. The payoff has been great. The Diamondbacks lead the majors with 28 Shift Runs Saved.

    They’ve held opposing batters to a .182 batting average on groundballs and short line drives when using a full shift (three players on the pull side) and a .199 batting average on those batted balls when using a partial shift (two defenders deviating significantly from normal positioning). Those are 36 points and 79 points below MLB average respectively, with the latter representing an MLB best.

    In other words, the Diamondbacks have done a good job at moving Ahmed and second baseman Ketel Marte around in partial-shift scenarios to cut off hitting lanes, playing them close to second base, but not on the pull side.

    Between good work in shifts, good work in the outfield, good work on the mound and good work behind the plate, the Diamondbacks seem to have solidified a position as a complete defensive team, in addition to being the best.

  • Stat of the Week: Who’s moving up and down the Starting Pitcher rankings?

    By Mark Simon

    From May 2013 through the end of the 2016 season, Clayton Kershaw almost always reigned supreme in The Bill James World’s Best Starting Pitcher Rankings, a measure based on the Game Score metric and a pitcher’s sustained excellence over a lengthy body of work.

    But Kershaw’s recent injury history has caused him to drop in the rankings to No. 5 now, with the possibility that he slips even further if he remains on the sidelines.

    The race for the No. 1 spot has become a tight battle between former teammates Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who currently occupy the top two positions. Scherzer has been outstanding the last six seasons, but he may never have been better than in the first 13 starts of 2018, in which he’s averaged 13.7 strikeouts per 9 and allowed six home runs in 87 2/3 innings pitched.

    Verlander has a 1.24 ERA in 87 1/3 innings pitched this season, following up on a five-start run with the Astros in which he posted a 1.06 ERA en route to winning the World Series last season.

    Verlander and Scherzer have been so good that they’ve dropped Indians ace Corey Kluber, who ended the 2017 season ranked No. 1, to No. 3 in the rankings, even though Kluber has a 1.96 ERA and is averaging seven innings per start this season.

    On the Rise

    Among those who have moved up the rankings is Gerrit Cole of the Astros, who climbed into the top 10 after a strong start to the season. He started 2018 ranked No. 38. The Astros have two pitchers (Verlander and Cole) in the top 10, as do the Nationals (Scherzer and Strasburg).

    James Paxton of the Mariners was No. 45 at the start of May, then had a 16-strikeout game and no-hitter in back-to-back starts. That, along with his continued strong performance, has vaulted him to No. 23.

    Aaron Nola of the Phillies allowed a combined three hits in 13 2/3 innings pitched in two outings at the end of May, is now No. 25 after ranking No. 62 prior to Opening Day.

    On the decline

    As some climb the ladder, others slip. The No. 8, 9 and 10 pitchers entering the season fell out of the top 10, though Carlos Carrasco (preseason No. 8) hangs in at No. 11 and Jake Arrieta dropped from No. 9 to No. 14. Madison Bumgarner was No. 10 entering the season, but now ranks No. 58 after an injury sidelined him the first two months.

    Among those to drop the most based on performance was Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija, who averaged a 40 Game Score in seven starts (a 50 Game Score is average) after a successful season debut. He’s fallen from No. 25 entering the season to No. 52.

    Red Sox pitcher Drew Pomeranz has plunged 25 spots from No. 35 to No. 60 (he has an 8.82 ERA in his last four starts). And formerly dominant Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman is now on the disabled list with a shoulder injury after recording a 7.71 ERA in seven starts. He fell from No. 30 at season’s start to his current No. 65.

    World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings

    1. Max Scherzer
    2. Justin Verlander
    3. Corey Kluber
    4. Chris Sale
    5. Clayton Kershaw
    6. Stephen Strasburg
    7. Jacob deGrom
    8. Zack Greinke
    9. Luis Severino
    10. Gerrit Cole

    The most updated rankings and an explanation of the methodology can be found at Bill James Online.