Over the 10 days leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
Not many players had a better 2019 then Nick Gonzales, who took home numerous awards across regular and summer league play. He’s a 2019 All- American, NCAA batting champ (hitting .432), and the Cape Cod League MVP. After his top-notch summer against baseball’s top prospects, he started 2020 with a blistering effort over 58 at-bats; he had 12 HR, and was batting .448 before season was cut short. There were questions about the level of competition Gonzales was facing at New Mexico State, but he put almost all those questions to rest after his MVP performance in the premier wood bat Cape Cod League.
Gonzales looks super-comfortable at the plate standing with an open stance shoulder-width apart and a slight bat waggle in his setup. The relaxed nature of his setup allows him to stay calm and fire his hands at the baseball later than other guys would. That means he lets the ball travel deeper in the zone and can stay back on breaking pitches longer. After the slight bat waggle, the lumber gets into an optimal position to square up the baseball. This allows Gonzales to end up with his energy heading toward the pitcher and in rhythm. Gonzales has great balance and is willing to work the count. An advanced hitter with a plan in every at-bat.
Almost every swing he takes is short and compact as he rarely overswings to try and produce power.
The raw power Gonzales has is greater than his in-game pop right now although he is progressing nicely and has the potential to reach average to slightly above-average power for his position. The New Mexico State product’s willingness to drive the ball gap-to-gap allows him to display some opposite-field power, which is a great sign that he can continue to add a power component to his bat. The way Gonzales takes pitches and always seems in rhythm again displays an advanced understanding at the plate that will help him early on his pro career.
Gonzales is an average defender, smooth and fluid at second base. He will make all the routine plays and works well to get around the baseball and keeps himself in control. However, when he gets to the ball, he is sure handed. He turns a quick pivot at second on double-plays and while his arm is below average the quickness with which he gets the ball out allows him to still make plays.
Summation
The best potential hit tool in the 2020 Draft, while all other tools are projected to be average. A top of the lineup guy, who will get on base at an incredible clip. The question lies in what can be developed of his other tools.
Projection
Everyday second baseman, who can be an elite leadoff guy.
Ceiling: Dustin Pedroia Floor: Tony Graffanino Draft Expectation: Top 10 Pick
Over the 10 days leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
Emerson Hancock spent all three seasons in Athens as a part of the rotation, after not signing with the Diamondbacks when they selected him the 38th round of the 2017 Draft out of high school. In his career at Georgia he made 33 appearances (all starts) where he accumulated 192 innings with 3.47 ERA and a record of 16-7, with 206 strikeouts and 55 walks (9.7 K per 9, 2.6 BB per 9). Hancock was the frontline guy most of his time at Georgia but had a couple poor starts during 2020 season. Due to the shortened season he made no SEC starts in his junior year of college.
He is a tall lanky starter, athletic body, and perfect frame for MLB. Hancock primarily delivers using a high leg kick and ¾ delivery; while featuring four above-average offerings (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup). His fastball sits in mid-90’s, topping out at 97, but does a real good job featuring all four options, and is willing to go to any pitch in strikeout situations. He’s greatly confident in his fastball, and his slider comes out hard sits mid-to- low 80s his best secondary pitch. He features his curveball a lot more in his third time through the order, while his changeup sits mid 80s with good arm-side run. He has great control which is displayed by 34-to-3 K-to-BB in his junior year. Hancock locates pitches to target, with great command.
His curveball is just average, with no big drop. But it is a capable pitch and he uses it well as a fourth option. It is a pitch to monitor as he continues his development through minor league baseball. Hancock features plus attributes in almost every other category. Hancock has a great pedigree, body, and athleticism, though there are some concerns regarding a lat injury in 2019 and his overall consistency. But I think he has a chance to be a potential Opening Day starter of the future for whatever team selects him.
Summation
All-Star caliber pitching prospect with three plus pitches and plus control. He has a fourth-pitch curveball when he needs it to face an order multiple times. He’s an elite SEC pitcher with a great body mixed with good athleticism, and is arguably the top pitcher in the draft .
Projection
All- Star potential starter with three plus pitches including a mid-90s fastball. High strikeout potential mixed with plus command and control.
On this episode, Mark Simon (@markasimonsays) is joined by Dirk Lammers (@ddlammers), author of Baseball’s No-Hit Wonders and an expert on the history of no-hitters for a conversation on all the different factors that go into throwing one. Dirk explains the origins of his research, how much research he’s done, and his favorite (2:18). They then discuss the most prominent defensive plays in no-hitters, what made Gregor Blanco’s perfect game-saving catch so special, what percentage of no-hitters feature a good or great defensive play, and why Kevin Kouzmanoff should be remembered for his defensive work (7:21). They also get into the role of umpires and catchers (14:36) and look at patterns in pitchers that throw no-hitters (18:47). Lastly they discuss the most likely current pitchers to throw a no-hitter (20:01). Thanks for listening and stay safe!
Friday marks the 10th anniversary of Roy Halladay’s perfect game for the Phillies against the Marlins. It was the first of two no-hitters that he would pitch that season, the other coming in the NLDS against the Reds. These were the signature starts of Halladay’s Hall of Fame career.
Some of the recent news on Halladay and his tragic death in a plane crash has been rather unpleasant. We’re not here to focus on that. We wanted to relive the perfect game, which you can watch at this link. We’ll enhance it with some of the data we collected that night.
Prelude
Halladay had gotten beaten up by the Red Sox in his last start, allowing seven runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched. But even with that, Halladay had been great through his first 10 starts of the season, pitching to a 2.22 ERA.
Nonetheless, it was noted during the broadcast that he had been working on some issues (later revealed by pitching coach Rich Dubee to be related to the first step in his delivery).
After all, the best pitchers tend to be perfectionists.
The cutter
Halladay threw 19 pitches, 11 for strikes in the first inning, the inning in which he looked least comfortable on an 85-degree Miami night (we might surmise he was still getting acclimated to his mechanical adjustments). He didn’t know it at the time, but he’d only get one run to work with, so he had to be on his game.
The Marlins started a good lineup that day. No. 3 hitter Hanley Ramirez was hitting over .300, as was No. 6 hitter Cody Ross. Ramirez (4-for-8) and Dan Uggla (4-for-7) each had prior success against Halladay in small samples.
Halladay’s changeup didn’t look great. He threw four in the first inning and got only one strike. His fastball was a little off too – only three strikes on seven pitches.
One pitch was perfect: His cutter. Five pitches, five strikes.
This pitch, whose grip was taught to him by its master, Mariano Rivera, was the biggest key to the perfect game.
He threw 27-of-34 cutters for strikes (79%). He netted only one missed swing, but 11 of the 18 takes against it were called strikes (more on that in a moment). The pitch got him 11 outs (the most of any of his pitch types that night), including five punch-outs, and yielded no baserunners.
The Man in Blue
After the game, Halladay credited catcher Carlos Ruiz for being integral to the result, saying he put his trust in every sign Ruiz flashed. But the path to a perfect game doesn’t just require a pitcher and catcher to be in sync. The pitcher also needs to be in sync with the home plate umpire, knowing what the man in blue will call and what he won’t.
This was Halladay’s lucky day.
You know how sometimes we’ll say of someone “That person just gets me.”
If you look at the numbers, it’s fair to say that Roy Halladay got Mike DiMuro. For his career, Halladay had a 2.17 ERA and four complete games in seven starts with DiMuro behind the plate.
The last three were a three-hit shutout of the Red Sox in 2009, the perfect game against the Marlins, and a 14-strikeout 8 2/3 inning gem against the Padres in 2011.
Halladay got 26 called strikes in this game and consistently worked the edges of the zone.
They were perfect pitches because the hitter’s instincts made them think ‘ball’ when the pitch was repeatedly called a strike. Credit Halladay for making the most of this aspect of the game. His location was just about perfect. He did this with Carlos Ruiz catching. Though Phillies pitchers raved about Ruiz’s ability to call a game, pitch framing was never a strength of his. In fact, from 2010 to 2011, Ruiz ranked tied for third-worst in our framing metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved.
The tone was set with the game’s first batter, Chris Coghlan. Halladay dotted the outside corner for a strike with his first pitch, then threw one to nearly the same spot on a 3-2 count. Ruiz made it look like it caught a little more plate than it did. DiMuro rung Coghlan up for the first of Halladay’s 11 strikeouts.
“I’m not a guy who really argues calls,” Coghlan said (Miami Herald). “I thought it was close – a ball – but obviously it was a strike to the umpire and that’s all that matters.”
The pitch had a 90% strike probability based on its horizontal and vertical location, the count, and how far the catcher had to move his target horizontally to catch the ball.
Coghlan had a better case on the 2-2 pitch he took for strike three and the 3-2 pitch that Hanley Ramirez took for strike three in the seventh inning. They were thrown to nearly the same spot and had the same strike probability, 22%.
Were they strikes? Well, they had a lot of tail on them. It’s a tough call for any umpire. Most umpires are reluctant to call strike three. DiMuro did it six times in this game. Makes sense given that by our tracking, he called extra strikes at the seventh-highest rate of any umpire in the major leagues in 2010 (2.4 per 150 pitches).
And as Coghlan says, it only matters how the umpire saw it.
Challenging Himself
Halladay danced a fine line in this game, even with a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate. He ran a three-ball count to seven batters. They saw a combined 11 pitches in which they needed one ball for a walk.
MLB pitchers retired 43% of hitters in plate appearances ending with a three-ball count.
Halladay retired 100%, 7-of-7, three with the fastball, three with the cutter, and one with the curve.
Batter
Count
Result
1st- Chris Coghlan
3-2
Strikeout Looking
1st- Hanley Ramirez
3-2
Ground out to second base
2nd- Jorge Cantu
3-2
Strikeout Swinging
5th- Dan Uggla
3-2
Flyout to center field
6th- Cameron Maybin
3-1
Ground out to shortstop
7th- Gaby Sanchez
3-2
Lineout to left field
7th- Hanley Ramirez
3-2
Strikeout Looking
Help in the Field
The Phillies were without both shortstop Jimmy Rollins and third baseman Placido Polanco, who were both out with injuries. They started Wilson Valdez at shortstop and Juan Castro at third base.
Valdez made one nice play, on a ground ball hit on a 3-1 pitch by speedy Cameron Maybin in the sixth inning. The out probability on the ball hit in the 5-6 hole was 73%. It was a tough play but one made well more often than not.
Castro’s presence was more prominent because he turned in the game’s best defensive play. In the eighth inning, Jorge Cantu hit a rocket in the shortstop-third base hole that had a 41% out probability. Castro made the play on one hop. If he didn’t field it, the ball would have been a base hit. But Castro made the play and threw Cantu out.
“He hit it pretty good,” Castro told reporters afterwards. “I was thinking to myself, ‘Every little ball that’s hit here, I have to dive for it. I was fortunate to get some glove and catch the ball.”
Of the 16 balls hit by the Marlins, these were the only two with less than a 90% out probability.
Castro also handled the final out of the game, going two steps to his left to field Ronny Paulino’s ground ball, and threw Paulino out easily.
Defense at third base was not Castro’s forte. He only played eleven games at third base that season and finished with -11 Defensive Runs Saved there for his career. Valdez was a better fit for his position. He saved 10 runs in his time as a part-time shortstop.
But what matters is that in this game, they were perfect.
Remembered Forever
Halladay would go on to win the NL Cy Young that season, leading the league in wins (21), innings pitched (250 2/3), complete games (9), and shutouts (4). It was one of a run of six straight seasons in which he made at least 30 starts every year and pitched to a 2.86 ERA.
At his Hall of Fame induction in 2019, Halladay’s wife, Brandy, gave a touching speech. We’ll let her words close this piece out.
“I think that Roy would want everyone to know that people are not perfect. We are all imperfect and flawed in one way or another. We all struggle, but with hard work, humility and dedication, imperfect people still can have perfect moments. Roy was blessed in his life and career to have some perfect moments. But I believe that they were only possible because of the man he strived to be, the teammate that he was, and the people he was so blessed to be on the field with.”
On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Yonhap News reporter Jeeho Yoo (@Jeeho_1). Jeeho is based in Seoul, South Korea and covers the KBO on a daily basis.
He explains fan reaction to the return of baseball (2:27) and what it’s like to cover baseball in the age of Coronavirus (4:46). He also gives his impressions of the season so far, why Preston Tucker is off to a good start, and which American and Korean pitchers have fared well (6:42). That leads to a discussion of how we should translate stats from KBO to MLB (9:02), how Korean teams use analytics (10:49), and how the hitting approach of a Korean batter differs from MLB counterparts (12:51).
Jeeho also points out how much defensive tracking goes on in the KBO and who the top defensive players are (14:40), and how shifting hasn’t necessarily caught on quite as much (16:18). He also explains what he’s seen in terms of an early increase in injuries (20:20). Lastly, he shares a few fun facts and stats he has compiled (23:17), explains why he doesn’t want to jinx no-hitters by mentioning them on Twitter (25:22), and gives some things for viewers to keep an eye on for the rest of the season (26:16).
Stay safe. Stay well. Don’t forget to rate, review, and subscribe. Thanks for listening!
It would be super cool if we could use modern technology to look back at dominant pitching performances. We could further dissect Sandy Koufax’s perfect game in 1965 or something more recent, like Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout game in 1998.
But the kind of pitching and defensive data that we had available then pales to what we have now. Within our company in particular, we can tell you how often batted balls are turned into outs and how effective a pitcher’s pitches are dating to 2004 for just about any moment in any game.
And we can use a stat like Game Score, which measures starting pitcher effectiveness on a scale that usually ranges from 0 to 100 to pick the game we want to look at. For those unfamiliar, Game Score increases with each out and strikeout recorded and each inning completed, and decreases with walks, hits, and runs allowed.
The best-pitched game of the 21st century falls within our game-tracking window – Max Scherzer’s 17-strikeout, no-walk no-hitter for the Nationals against the Mets on October 3, 2015. That is one of the rare games that exceeded a 100 Game Score, coming in at 104.
Extenuating Circumstances
In reviewing the game, it’s important to note some of the extenuating circumstances, for one the weather, which Baseball-Reference lists at 54 degrees with 28 mile-per-hour winds blowing in from center field. A family member was at this game and texted during it that it was “sooooo cold.”
Those sorts of conditions don’t present themselves often. This is the only one with that wind condition and direction in the last eight years. It’s one of three such games this century (one of which was on a night in Texas with temperatures in the 90s).
Another thing to consider was that this was the second game of a doubleheader on the final Saturday of the season. The Mets had small stakes to play for–they were competing with the Dodgers for home-field advantage in their LDS matchup, but the lineup they put out didn’t show a sense of urgency in that regard.
Yoenis Céspedes, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and David Wright were not in the starting lineup, though all but Wright would appear in the game.
The No. 2 hitter, Ruben Tejada, and cleanup batter, Michael Cuddyer, had OPS’ around .700. The No. 6 through 8 hitters, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Kevin Plawecki, and Dilson Herrera, all were below .700. The Mets were willing to put this lineup out against a pitcher who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start against the Reds.
But ridiculous dominance is still ridiculous dominance, regardless of weather or opposing lineup.
No Time At All
I did something rudimentary just out of curiosity, timing how long each inning lasted. If you have a short-attention span, Scherzer’s pitching performance is perfect for you. The nine Mets’ half-innings lasted a combined 37 minutes and 7 seconds from first pitch to last out. That’s a little over four minutes per half-inning.
Scherzer worked quickly throughout. He completed two half-innings in just under three minutes, with lengths not much longer than the two-minute commercial breaks between innings. Scherzer opened the game by striking out Curtis Granderson in 46 seconds. He ended it by getting Granderson to pop out in a five-pitch at-bat lasting one minute, 22 seconds.
No inning went longer than the sixth (which took 6 minutes, 6 seconds), and that one would have been shorter had Nationals first baseman Clint Robinson been able to scoop third baseman Yunel Escobar’s throw. The error for Escobar on Kevin Plawecki’s ground ball resulted in the Mets’ only baserunner of the game.
1st inning
4 minutes, 16 seconds
2nd inning
2 minutes, 26 seconds
3rd inning
4 minutes, 17 seconds
4th inning
3 minutes, 10 seconds
5th inning
2 minutes, 38 seconds
6th inning
6 minutes, 6 seconds
7th inning
4 minutes, 6 seconds
8th inning
4 minutes, 24 seconds
9th inning
5 minutes, 44 seconds
Dominance
Scherzer began the game with a 92 mph fastball, but the pitch popped repeatedly after that. His fastball averaged about 94 mph in the opening inning, but nearly 96 in the ninth.
For the game, the Mets swung at 40 Scherzer fastballs and missed 19. The 48% miss rate was the second-highest of his career (minimum 30 swings against it), trailing only a 2013 start against the Mets (19-of-39). With two strikes, Mets hitters swung 18 times at his fastball and missed on 12. From the looks of it on the game broadcast, most of those swings were very late.
Scherzer also had the best version of his slider, which completely threw off the Mets’ hitters’ timing. He threw 18 of 23 for strikes, resulting in eight outs, including seven against right-handed hitters. It was his primary out pitch against righties (he got the other five outs against them with fastballs).
A little help
Scherzer went to three balls on only two batters. He got Michael Conforto to ground out on a 3-1 pitch in the first inning and he struck out Kevin Plawecki on a 3-2 pitch in the third. Conforto was ahead 3-0, but Scherzer got a generous strike call from home plate umpire Tony Randazzo on an inside pitch with a 33% strike probability.
Plawecki’s at-bat was an odd one. On 2-2, he took a pitch that appeared to nick the outside corner. Plawecki started to walk back to the dugout. Scherzer began his usual stomp around the mound.
By our calculations, the pitch had an 83% strike probability, but Randazzo called it a ball. This was the only pitch with a greater than 50% strike probability that Randazzo called a ball the entire game.
Then on 3-2, Plawecki took a pitch that was further off the plate, one with a 25% strike probability, but Randazzo rang up strike three. That was one of five instances in which Randazzo called a pitch a strike that had less than a 50% strike probability.
It was bad enough for the Mets that Scherzer was at the top of his game on a cold, windy night with a depleted lineup against him. The home plate umpire wasn’t doing them many favors.
Easy peasy
The Mets put 11 balls into play against Scherzer, most of them meekly.
Their hitters reached base once, as previously mentioned when Escobar’s throw to first was not scooped by Robinson, allowing Plawecki to reach.
Escobar got the error, which resulted in a -.85 plays saved demerit on his register. In other words, a ground ball hit at that speed by a right-handed batter in Plawecki’s speed group (slow) where Escobar fielded it is turned into an out by the third baseman 85% of the time. This turned out to be one of the other 15%.
We should also point out that scooping throws was not Robinson’s forte. He had 9 scooped throws and 5 mishandled scoops for the season, an effectiveness rate of 64%. That ranked third-lowest in the majors (minimum 10 scoop opportunities).
Simply put: You can make a reasonable case that Scherzer should have pitched a perfect game.
We say that because on the 10 balls in play on which the Nationals recorded outs, there weren’t any tough plays from a statistical perspective.
Result
Probability Play Made
1st– Conforto groundout to 2B
93%
2nd– Cuddyer flyout to LF
77%
2nd– Johnson groundout to 1B
93%
3rd– Harvey groundout to 1B
100%
4th– Granderson lineout to 2B
83%
4th– Conforto flyout to LF
97%
5th– Cuddyer groundout to 2B
97%
6th– Herrera popout to 2B
100%
6th– Murphy groundout to 2B
70%
9th– Granderson popout to 3B
100%
The closest the Mets came to a hit was when Murphy hit a ground ball to the left of Dan Uggla. Uggla corralled it and, with the option of retiring Murphy at first or getting a force play at second, got the force out at second place. That play had a 70% chance of being made given the aforementioned parameters. And it was.
Scherzer struck out the next nine hitters after that. He wasn’t taking any more chances with his defense, save for Granderson’s game-ending weak popup, which had a 100% out probability.
Respect
Scherzer’s 17 strikeouts matched the most in a no-hitter (Nolan Ryan also had 17 in one of his 7 no-nos). The 104 Game Score is actually the second-best in a start of 9 innings or fewer, trailing only Wood’s 20-strikeout 105.
The opposition paid its respects to Scherzer’s performance. Mets manager Terry Collins said it succinctly: “He was great. We were bad.”
Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen called it “one of the greatest pitching performance in major league history.”
On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by softball star A.J. Andrews (@aj_andrews_) to talk about what goes into being an outstanding defensive outfielder. A.J. was the first softball player to be awarded a Rawlings Gold Glove, and she breaks down three catches: the first being one along the right field line in which she explained proper diving technique and how to evaluate the angles you take (2:58), the second being the first time she could remember making a great play as a kid (10:24), and the third in which she crashed into the outfield wall (13:11).
A.J. also discusses pre-pitch anticipation (15:38), how defensive positioning in softball is similar to defensive positioning in baseball (17:39), and the mentality needed to be a great defensive outfielder (22:24).
Thank you for listening. Stay healthy and stay safe!
One of the interesting articles in The Fielding Bible – Volume V – is about the defensive aging curve and the idea that a young player usually reaches his defensive peak very early in his career.
But even with that said, there are still players who perform at high levels when they’re considered to be old. I wanted to see who those were within the 17-season history of Defensive Runs Saved.
Let’s see what we’ve got.
Note: All references to age refer to the player’s age on June 30 of that season.
The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 40 or older is …
Omar Vizquel was a defensive wizard who aged well. He had 16 Runs Saved with the Giants as a 40-year-old in 2007. There aren’t many 40-year-olds in the majors these days that could rival Vizquel. Heck, there aren’t that many 40-year-olds in the majors any more. No one has had that many Runs Saved at age 39 or 38 either.
Ichiro Suzuki came the closest to matching Vizquel. Even at the end of his career, Ichiro could still make a strong impact in the outfield. He had 14 Runs Saved with the Yankees in 2013.
The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 37 or older is …
One of the most impressive things about Adrián Beltré’s Hall-of-Fame caliber career was how his numbers went against the aging curve. Beltré’s was someone who got better as a hitter he entered his 30s. Beltre was an excellent defender throughout his career. He had 17 Runs Saved in 2016 with the Rangers at age 37. He also hit .300 with 32 home runs that season.
The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 36 or older is …
Someone whose name I didn’t expect to see here. Rey Sánchez had 18 Runs Saved in 91 games as a shortstop with the Rays at age 36 in 2004. That put him just ahead of Beltré and former Mets second baseman José Valentín, who had 17 Runs Saved for the division titlists in 2006.
Age 36 is the last age at which there is a considerable sample of players who saved at least 10 runs in a season. Among the 36-year-olds to do that are Mark Grudzielanek (15 with the 2006 Royals), outfielders Marlon Byrd (12 with the 2014 Phillies) and Torii Hunter (12 with the 2012 Angels), and Hall-of-Famers Chipper Jones (10 with the 2008 Braves) and Larry Walker (10 with the 2003 Rockies).
The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 35 or older is …
Grudzielanek shows up here again, but not alone. He had 23 Runs Saved as a second baseman for the 2005 Cardinals, the same number that Craig Counsell had for the 2006 Diamondbacks.
More recently, former Diamondbacks catcher Jeff Mathis has 20 Runs Saved as a 35-year-old in 2018. He deserves considerable credit not only for doing this as a catcher, but for doing it in only 63 games behind the plate.
The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 34 or older is …
This is the last one we’ll do because Counsell puts everyone to shame with his 2005 season in which he saved 30 runs for the Diamondbacks.
What’s amazing about Counsell’s age 34-35 run was that he did it at two positions. His 30 Runs Saved in this year remains the standard-setter for second basemen (matched by Chase Utley of the Phillies in 2008). The next season, he moved to shortstop and recorded 20 of his 23 Runs Saved in 88 games there.
This reminded me of a quote I’ve shared a few times on this blog from former Padres manager Andy Green, who said he learned how to play defense by watching Counsell. Keep in mind that prior to 2013, Defensive Runs Saved combines Range & Positioning for infielders (post-2013 positioning is not factored into the Runs Saved total). Counsell was someone who knew where to go.
“I saw him instinctively moving around the diamond,” Green said a few years ago. “Every time a ball was hit, he was right where the ball was hit.
Counsell was one of those players who found ways to adjust. It’s not easy, but it’s possible and it’s something to watch as your favorite defenders get older.
One of the game’s top defensive stars, Washington Nationals center fielder Victor Robles, turns 23 today.
Robles led all center fielders with 23 Defensive Runs Saved last season, edging out Lorenzo Cain of the Brewers, though Cain won the Fielding Bible Award for defensive excellence at the position.
If I was going to rate the best defensive center fielders in baseball, I think I’d slot Robles at No. 4. Cain and Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays would be interchangeable at 1-2 depending on if you prefer Cain’s statistical advantage the last two seasons or Kiermaier’s longstanding outstanding reputation.
Byron Buxton of the Twins has a Fielding Bible Award and a Platinum Glove to his credit, so he’s got the No. 3 spot. Buxton’s hold on this is tenuous given that injury issues and poor performance have kept him from regularly playing for a full season.
One difference between Robles and the other three is how much value Robles’ extracted from his arm last season. His 12 unaided assists (those without a cutoff man) and 9 Outfield Arm Runs Saved led the majors last season.
By contrast, Buxton saved 3 runs with his arm, Kiermaier saved 2, and Cain cost his team 3. It will be interesting to see if teams challenge Robles’ arm now that it is more of a known commodity. Kiermaier lamented on our recent podcast interview with him that he doesn’t get challenged as much as he used to because his arm has a good reputation. Robles may merit the same badge of honor.
Robles also differs from Cain, Kiermaier, and Buxton in that a good amount of his value in catching fly balls and line drives came on balls hit to the shallowest part of the outfield rather than on the would-be doubles and triples hit near or on the warning track.
Here’s how many plays made that each was above or below average as a center fielder on balls hit to the shallow, medium and deep parts of the outfield (Robles played a little right field too, but that isn’t factored in).
Shallow
Medium
Deep
Victor Robles
+10
+3
+1
Lorenzo Cain
+4
+2
+12
Kevin Kiermaier
-4
+6
+7
Byron Buxton
-1
0
+9
It probably wouldn’t surprise you to know that Robles played the shallowest of the four in their respective home ballparks, starting 312 feet from home plate per Statcast. Compare that to Kiermaier, who on average starts 322 feet from home plate in Tropicana Field, whose dimensions to center are nearly identical to Nationals Park. This puts Kiermaier in a better position to catch deep balls, but Robles likely has a better chance at the shallower ones.
That’s not to say that Robles can’t go back and catch a ball when needed.
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Though Robles and Kiermaier differ in their defensive positioning, Robles does share the commonality with Kiermaier of having to work on his hitting. Robles had an OPS+ of 88 last year and that was with 25 hit by pitches, which increased his risk of injury.
Robles’ glove will keep him entrenched in the Nationals lineup. Though he may not currently be the best defensive center fielder in the game, he’s close, and he’s someone to watch and enjoy if and when the 2020 season resumes.
The baseball people in our Research & Development department often joke of how Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman is our favorite son because of the way he plays and the outstanding defensive numbers that he puts up.
Had our group existed in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, our poster child would likely have been Hall-of-Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson of the Baltimore Orioles, who turns 83 today. Robinson and Cardinals shortstop Ozzie Smith are arguably the top two defensive infielders in major league history.
Robinson debuted at age 18 in 1955 and became an everyday player in 1958, with no way of knowing he’d play 23 seasons with Baltimore. His defensive play was immediately noticeable. In an article in the Baltimore Evening Sun in November 1957, it was noted that his nickname in the Texas League was “The Octopus” because of his ability to reach any ball. This would later morph into “The Human Vacuum Cleaner.”
One of his minor league managers, Joe Schultz, said
“Robinson makes at least one big-league play in every game, and he makes some plays that a lot of major-league third basemen never make in their lifetime. He’d be a big help to a ball club even if he hit .220.”
Ah yes, Robinson’s hitting is a concern in any article you read from the early part of his career. It took a couple of years for Robinson’s bat to develop. In 1960, the 23-year-old Robinson hit .294 with 14 home runs. Combine that with defense that lived up to Schultz’s billing and you had a player who finished a close third in the MVP voting behind two far more prodigious hitters, Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle of the Yankees.
One Maryland sportswriter said that had the Orioles won the pennant, Robinson would have won the MVP. Robinson did win the AL MVP in 1964 and placed in the top three in 1965 and 1966.
“He could be one of the best third basemen who ever lived,” said Tigers manager Jimmy Dykes in September of 1960.
1960 also marked the first of 16 straight years in which Robinson won a Gold Glove Award. The only player to win more Gold Gloves is a pitcher, Greg Maddux, with 18. Robinson’s 16 are the most by a third baseman, six more than Mike Schmidt, who ranks second with 10.
The last Gold Glove came in 1975 and during that season, the famous Los Angeles Times sportswriter Jim Murray wrote
“Robinson shops around for gloves with hits in them the way sluggers do for bats. Whenever a teammate makes a spectacular catch, Brooks hounds him with offers to trade, buy, borrow, or steal. In Baltimore, they say Brooks doesn’t go after balls. His glove does. He always keeps a backup glove, which he breaks in on infield practice.”
Orioles manager Earl Weaver told Murray:
“Brooks is the only guy I know who has a farm system for gloves. He’s got gloves that are a year away. He retires the old ones when they can’t go to their left for balls hit in the hole any more.”
Peak Robinson was on display in the 1970 World Series against the Reds with plays like this one against Lee May (a future teammate) in Game 1.
“He should wear a Superman cloak,” said longtime baseball writer Charles (Chub) Feeney.
Our defensive metrics date back to 2003, but the stats that use historical data to evaluate Robinson reward him for his play. Robinson led AL third basemen in Total Zone Runs eight times and ranked second in seven other seasons. He’s the career leader in this stat among third basemen by a considerable margin (it is calculated from 1953 forward).
In terms of playing style, perhaps you saw the cover of The Fielding Bible Volume Vand were wowed by Chapman’s ability to keep a low base when getting ready for a pitch to be delivered. Robinson didn’t play that way.
Wrote Mike Klein of the Chicago Daily Herald in 1973:
“It’s a cardinal rule of baseball that any successful infielder crouch low, keep his head down and glove close to the ground. “Play the ball; don’t let the ball play you.
“But Robinson, and this attests to his great quickness (different from speed, which he lacks) plays higher than most brothers of the Hot Corner Fraternity. His crouch is less pronounced. Playing down at shell city means attack and charge the ball. Which he does to perfection.
There’s even a worked-up set of Brooks Robinson footsteps for making sure he pivots off the left foot when fielding bunts. What makes his golden magnetic glovework so intriguing however is that Robinson going backwards and to either side will make a better play than most third basemen playing it by all the rules. It is distinctly Robinson.
“Nobody else does it quite the same.”
So on his 83rd birthday, we offer a tip of the cap to Brooks Robinson, a one of a kind defensive player who any generation of baseball fans can appreciate.
