Category: MLB

  • You won’t see a better pitch: The most dominant changeups

    By Mark Simon

    In addition to tracking defense in great detail, Sports Info Solutions tracks many things related to pitching and hitting. Our pitching database is complete back to 2004 and allows us to look at the effectiveness of pitches both on a seasonal and by-game basis.

    With that in mind, we thought we’d take a statistical look at the pitchers with the best pitches by pitch type. We’re using a combination of things as our guide, most notably the FanGraphs Pitch Values leaderboards (whose aim is to show which pitches saved the most runs).

    ESPN’s Baseball Tonight used to have a segment called Baseball Tonight called “That’s Nasty!” These are the pitches that were the most worthy of showing.

    We’re starting with the changeup to … change things up a bit (plenty of time to look at best fastballs and such). We’ll give you a tidbit to explain why the pitcher is on the list and then share the pitcher’s best (or most memorable game) with the pitch in terms of outs recorded without allowing a hit, walk, or hit by pitch.

    Cole Hamels

    The stat: Hamels is the standard-setter here. He has the highest Pitch Value with his changeup of any pitcher over the 16-season span from 2004 to 2019.

    One game to remember:  July 30, 2007 (Phillies vs Cubs)

    Hamels line: 8 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 8 K, 2 BB

    The changeup:  37 of 47 for strikes, 12 misses on 29 swings; Cubs 0-for-15, 6 K against it

    Hamels set a precedent for excellence early in his career, as this start came from his second season. The stories from that day were of how Hamels’ second start at Wrigley Field went better than his last appearance there, prior to which he sliced his left index finger with a knife (and then allowed nine runs in two innings). All Hamels’ fingers were working well in this game, as his changeup baffled the Cubs in a 4-1 win.

    There were even better days ahead for Hamels at Wrigley Field. He’d go on to pitch a no-hitter there in 2015.

    Johan Santana

    The stat: Santana has four of the top eight seasons in changeup Pitch Value in the five-year period from 2004 to 2008.

    One game to remember: September 27, 2008 (Mets vs Marlins)

    Santana’s line: 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 9 K, 3 BB

    The changeup:  28 of 42 for strikes, 12 misses on 22 swings, 8 K – Marlins 0-for-13 against it

    Throughout his career, Johan Santana was considered to have one of the best changeups in MLB, one that led him to two Cy Young Awards with the Twins and a no-hitter with the Mets.

    This may have been his best day with that pitch. With the Mets in the midst of a second consecutive late-season collapse, Santana shut out the Marlins on the next-to-last day of the season. Yes, the Mets lost the next day and missed the playoffs, but this game is well-remembered for Santana’s amazing effort.

    What made it particularly impressive? It was later revealed that he made this start with a torn meniscus in his knee.

    Tim Lincecum

    The stat: Lincecum held hitters to a .119 batting average against his changeup in 2009. That’s the lowest batting average against the pitch by any of the more than 200 pitchers who recorded at least 150 outs with it in a season (think of those as your changeup “superusers”)

    One game to remember: April 28, 2010 (Giants vs Phillies)

    Lincecum’s line: 8 1/3 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 11 K, 1 BB

    The changeup:  31 of 40 for strikes, 14 misses on 30 swings, 9 K – Phillies 0-for-15 against it

     For a few years, Tim Lincecum’s starts were appointment viewing and his changeup (called a splitter by some and often confused with his slider) was a big reason why. Lincecum could make dominant lineups look meek, like he did against the Phillies for almost all of this game.

    In 2009, the pitch saved Lincecum 33.7 runs, per FanGraphs’ Pitch Value stats. That’s the most for any pitcher’s changeup in this 16-season span.

    Lincecum once told the San Francisco Chronicle of his changeup “If guys are going to continue to take swings like that and continue to be fooled, I guess I’ll keep throwing it.”

    The Phillies would score three runs in the ninth inning to tie and then win in extra innings, but Lincecum and the Giants got them back by beating them in the NLCS on the way to a World Series title.

    James Shields

    The stat: Shields’ changeup had the second-highest Pitch Value with his changeup from 2007 to 2013

    One game to remember: June 24, 2011 (Rays vs Astros)

    Shields’ line: 9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 9 K, 1 BB

    The changeup:  28 of 33 for strikes, Astros 0-for-17, 5 K against it

    In his prime, James Shields was a workhorse capable of throwing 250 innings a season and going deep into games because of a great pitch mix. The changeup was his money pitch and in this game it overwhelmed an Astros team that finished 56-106.

    This wasn’t so much a swing-and-miss pitch for Shields as it was one that induced ill-timed swings. The pitch netted him 18 of the 27 outs, though only five that were by strikeout.

    “There’s no superlative that I can give you that is adequate,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told reporters.

    Said then-Rays third baseman Evan Longoria: “It shouldn’t be that easy.”

     Félix Hernández

    The stat: From 2009 to 2014, Félix Hernández had the second-highest Pitch Value for a changeup in MLB. In that span, he won a Cy Young Award, twice led the AL in ERA and led the league in Hits per Nine Innings three times.

    One game to remember: June 8, 2014 (Mariners vs Rays)

    Hernandez’s line: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 15 K, 1 BB

    The changeup: 22 of 36 for strikes, 13 misses on 20 swings, Rays 0-for-12, 10 K against it

    Yes, the opponent was the Rays, but this wasn’t Felix Hernandez’s perfect game. It was perfect for his changeup, which helped him to 15 strikeouts. It’s amazing what a difference three miles-per-hour can make. Hernandez allowed four hits (and a walk) and netted only six outs with a fastball that averaged 91 MPH. The changeup averaged 88 and was untouchable.

    “The man was outstanding,” said Rays manager Joe Maddon. “That changeup was a fastball until the last moment, then it became a changeup. I think he was better than when he threw the perfect game”

    Danny Salazar

    The stat: Salazar had the highest Pitch Value for a changeup of any pitcher from 2015 to 2017. Opponents hit .142, .143, and .157 against it in those three seasons.

    One game to remember: May 10, 2015 (Indians vs Twins)

    Salazar’s line: 7 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 11 K, 0 BB

    The changeup: 31 of 40 for strikes – Twins 0-for-17, 9 K against it

    There was a time not long ago when Danny Salazar was considered one of the top young pitchers in baseball and his changeup was considered one of the best pitches in the game.

    “My changeup is weird,” Salazar told me in 2016. “It feels like a string and then it drops or goes inside or outside. By throwing every pitch as if it’s the last pitch I throw, it’s helping me. I’m aggressive. It’s hard to hit. When I would just try to throw it for a strike at a low velocity, they’d do damage to it. My arm angle is the same for every pitch. It makes it tougher for the hitter to guess what I’m throwing.”

    This was one of his best days, a dominant game against the Twins in which their hitters flailed repeatedly against the pitch. After a leadoff home run by Brian Dozier, Salazar retired 21 straight hitters and struck out six in a row in one stretch. This was the fifth start in a five-start stretch in which Salazar overcame the control bugaboo that had plagued him earlier in his career. To that point in the season, he had 48 strikeouts and 5 walks.

    Luis Castillo

    The stat: Castillo’s prolific changeup recorded 161 strikeouts in 2019, more than double the pitcher with the next-highest total (Stephen Strasburg 76).

    One game to remember: August 5, 2019 (Reds vs Angels)

    Castillo’s line: 7 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 13 K, 1 BB (highlights here)

    The changeup: 33 of 51 for strikes, 18 misses on 28 swings, 11 K, 1 BB – Angels 0-for-14 against it

    It was at its very best in this game, almost completely unhittable. Sure Mike Trout tagged him for a home run in the sixth inning. But the rest of the Angels lineup had almost no chance. His 11 strikeouts with the changeup match the most by a pitcher in a game in the last 16 seasons (Johan Santana and Alex Cobb also had 11)

    “He’s a joy to catch,” Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart said afterwards. “There  were a few times I didn’t even put down a sign. He knew what he wanted to throw, and he threw it.”

  • A closer look at the 2 best defensive seasons we’ve tracked

    By Mark Simon

    Who represents the ultimate in defensive excellence?

    That’s going to be a theme of some of the things we share this week, as we peek under the hood of Defensive Runs Saved in an attempt to better educate you on how the stat works.

    To do that, let’s start with this question: Who has had the best season in that statistic?

    The answers shouldn’t surprise you if you watch baseball highlights regularly.

    NameSeason/TeamDefensive Runs Saved
    Andrelton Simmons2017 Angels40
    Kevin Kiermaier2015 Rays38
    Matt Chapman2019 Athletics34
    Gerardo Parra2013 Diamondbacks33
    8 tied with 30

    We’ll go in-depth on the top two.

     Andrelton Simmons, 2017 (40 Defensive Runs Saved)

    Simmons has been amazing since his MLB debut in 2012, winning six straight Fielding Bible Awards from 2013 to 2018. If you’re curious for when Simmons was at his very best, the answer is 2017 when he finished with 40 Defensive Runs Saved (up from 32 in the previous version of the system).

    Nearly all of Simmons’ value that season was attributable to incredible range. Let’s illustrate:

    Here’s a look at how Simmons fared on every ball hit in which he had a >0 chance of making a play. When Simmons had a ball hit right at him, he was similar to most other shortstops in baseball. Most of those plays get made by anyone. But where Simmons distinguished himself in that he could scamper in either direction to get a lot more balls in the hole and up the middle than other shortstops could get.

     Plays MadeOpportunitiesSuccess RatePlays Made Above Expected
    Hit To His Left15322668%26
    Hit Straight On11612394%3
    Hit To His Right13821066%17

    The 26 plays above average on balls hit to his left (most often those hit up the middle) are the most in either direction for any shortstop since we started tracking this in 2013.

    Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was as good in 2016, making 25 plays above expectations on balls hit to his left, but he was only 3 plays above average on all other balls. In 2017, Simmons was 20 plays above expectations on balls hit straight on and to his right.

    To further make the point about Simmons’ excellence:

    Simmons made 55 plays on balls with historical out rates greater than 0, but less than 50%.

    The average shortstop would have made 40.

    Simmons made 27 plays on balls with out rates less than 30%.

    The average shortstop would have made 15.

    Simmons made 11 plays on balls with out rates less than 15%.

    The average shortstop would have made 6.

    Remember that these are plays in which hits are erased and outs are recorded. Make them in bulk as Simmons did and you wind up with astronomical Runs Saved totals.

    If you want to see what the best Defensive Runs Saved season looks like highlight-wise, check out this YouTube compilation of Simmons’ 2017.

    Kevin Kiermaier, 2015 (38 Defensive Runs Saved)

    Kiermaier’s 38 Runs Saved in 2015 are the most by an outfielder not just since 2013, but also since we first began tracking the stat in 2003. This is the season in which Kiermaier was at his healthiest. He played in 148 games in center, which is his highest total by more than 20 games.

    Kiermaier led all outfielders with 24 jumping catches that season. No other outfielder had more than 13. He used his elite closing speed to record 103 sprinting catches. No other outfielder had more than 79.

    As a result, he was able to pursue deep balls with a fervor unmatched by anyone else that season, which more than made up for a below-average plays saved rating on the shallowest fly balls. In other words, saving would-be doubles, triples and (twice) home runs was much more beneficial than letting a few extra singles fall in.

    Looking at this from a perspective similar to that used for Simmons, and looking specifically at balls hit to the deepest parts of the ballpark:

    Kiermaier made 147 plays on deep balls with a greater than zero chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 128.

    Kiermaier made 17 plays on deep balls with less than a 50% chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 7.

    Kiermaier made 9 plays on deep balls with less than 30% chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 2.

    We should point out that Kiermaier’s Runs Saved was also aided greatly by his throwing arm. He had nine assists without the help of a cutoff man, the most among center fielders. He also allowed 48% of runners to advance on hits, below the 54% average at the position. That combined to net him 7 Runs Saved because of the cumulative impact of his work.

    If you want to see Kiermaier’s highlight reel from that season, click here.

    In the end, what did it for Kiermaier and Simmons was that they were on the field a lot and when they were on the field, they were at their best.

    Over time, that adds up to greatness.

    Some of you may remember that Kiermaier had 42 Defensive Runs Saved in 2015 in the earlier version of the stat. The total dropped because of a new centering technique implemented by the PART system to ensure the sum of all DRS at a position in a season adds to zero (or close to it).

  • What to Expect Now That Shifts are Included in Defensive Runs Saved

    By Alex Vigderman

    You might have heard that we have a new Defensive Runs Saved as of this offseason. The nice thing is that even with 2020 baseball lagging behind a bit, these changes were implemented all the way back to 2013. What sort of fun can we have with that data?

    Well, one of the big-ticket changes that we made was to add shift plays back into player evaluation. Since the start of the shifting boom in 2012, we eliminated from evaluation any plays with a shift on. However, as shifts started representing roughly half of all balls in play as recently as this season, that became an untenable strategy. So now Defensive Runs Saved includes virtually all plays.

    How Much of an Impact Does Including Shift Plays Have?

    If shifts represent roughly half of balls in play, you shouldn’t be surprised that they have quite a bit of sway in our understanding of player value. Here’s how much that amount has changed over the years, using the proportion of total runs saved or cost (i.e. the absolute value of runs saved) that comes from shifts. This includes the Range and Throwing parts of the new PART System, because we don’t split performance on air balls in this way and positioning isn’t assigned to the player.

    Percent of Total Runs Saved or Cost on Shift Plays by Season, 2013-19 Infielders

    SeasonPercent of Total Runs Saved or Cost
    201311%
    201419%
    201525%
    201631%
    201730%
    201835%
    201943%

    At a player level, shift plays can be worth double-digit runs over the course of a season, although that’s only the very end of the spectrum. Who was affected the most?

    Most Runs Saved on Shift Plays, 2019 Infielders

    PlayerPosRuns Saved
    Kolten Wong2B14
    Paul DeJongSS12
    Kike Hernandez2B11
    Nolan Arenado3B11
    Javier BaezSS10

    Most Runs Cost on Shift Plays, 2019 Infielders

    PlayerPosRuns Saved
    Jurickson Profar2B-12
    Colin Moran3B-8
    Richie Martin Jr.SS-7
    Jorge PolancoSS-7
    Asdrubal Cabrera2B-7
    Gleyber Torres2B-7
    Rio Ruiz3B-7

     

    How Does Shift Performance Relate to Performance in a Standard Alignment?

    One thing you might notice from the leaders and trailers above is that the leaderboard tended to include players we already thought were strong defenders and the trailerboard tended not to. This all makes sense, because good players tend to be good regardless of the situation.

    Interestingly, in the aggregate our assumption seems to be misguided. Comparing the performance of players in shifts to their performance in standard alignments, the correlation is essentially non-existent.

    Correlation between Performance in Shifts and Standard Alignments, 2013-19 (using new PART System)

    DRS ComponentCorrelation between Shift and Standard
    Positioning0.03
    AirN/A (not calculated in shifts)
    Range0.13
    Throwing0.09

    Stats are all on a per-opportunity basis, and small samples are down-weighted when calculating the correlations

    This certainly is an odd finding, and the reason for it isn’t clear just yet. It’s possible that when players are re-positioned for a shift the distribution of their out rates transforms enough that while their actual skill isn’t changed, the way that their skill is reflected in their plus-minus-based statistics does, ahem, shift.

    There is just enough of a small positive correlation that over a full season of opportunities better players will tend to have positive Runs Saved in shifts and worse players will tend to have negative Runs Saved in shifts, but that’s about as much of a relationship that there is. This bears more investigation, but we wanted to at least report the finding and see where things go from there.

  • How will injured players be impacted by the layoff?

    By John Verros

    As we all know, the start of the 2020 MLB season has been indefinitely delayed. This is obviously best for everyone in terms of preventing the spread of the coronavirus, but what effect will this delay have on the players’ health outlook upon returning to play?

    It’s possible that this postponement will interrupt the typical two to three-month cycle of gradually ramping up workloads. Most players are assuredly staying in playing shape, but it is yet to be determined just how influential this break will be on the number of injuries we see within the first couple months of play. The last delay in the start of an MLB season was in 1995 – long before Sports Info Solutions started tracking injury data. It will be interesting to see the final impact once we are able to compare this season to the previous few.

    For some players this is a disruption in their normal cycle of work, but for several players this delay is a blessing in disguise. Below are six players who were either in need of an extra one to two months in order to get back to full health, or were questionable to make opening day.

    Miles Mikolas – Mikolas was shut down in late February with a right forearm flexor strain and had been expected to open the 2020 season on the injured list. This injury can be acute or it can develop over time through overuse. During his rehabilitation, Mikolas has undergone two PRP injections in order promote healing of the affected forearm flexor.

    While he was unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, the potential addition of a couple months could be just what was needed for Mikolas. Playing before an injury has healed can create a bigger problem, such as a ligament injury. The forearm flexors are known to protect the ligaments of the elbow. In a study done by Hodgins et al. (2017) 19.4% of MLB players required UCL reconstruction within 365 days of sustaining a forearm injury. Let’s hope this added time off will allow Miles to get the proper treatment he needs to get his arm correct.

    Mike Clevenger – Mike Clevinger underwent surgery on Feb. 14th to repair a partial tear of the medial meniscus in his left knee. He has made it a goal to return on the earlier end of his six- to eight-week timeframe.

    From the sounds of it, Clevinger underwent a partial meniscectomy. This surgery entails the removal of frayed or slightly torn pieces of the medial meniscus. This has a better outlook when compared to a meniscus repair, which involves suturing the torn pieces of the meniscus together. Rehab following meniscus repair surgery is more extensive than rehab after a partial meniscectomy because you have to allow the torn meniscus to heal. As a right-handed pitcher, this is Clevinger’s plant leg.

    This knee absorbs a large amount of force/stress every time he plants during a pitch. Even with a conservative approach we should see Clevinger available no later than the middle of May. I do not expect this injury to have a negative impact on his season.

    Aaron Judge – On March 6, Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his first right rib. Judge originally complained of soreness in his right shoulder/pectoral and now we know the cause was due to this rib fracture. The ribs are an uncommon site for a stress fracture, but through repetitive or intensified loading, they can possibly occur. Rib stress fractures typically appear as a weakened area in the bone due to the previously stated repetitive loading through the ribs causing the formation of microscopic cracks. That could explain why it took quite some time for the Yankees to pinpoint the cause of Judge’s pain.

    The majority of baseball players with this injury take several months of conservative rehab to heal fully. However, some players end up having symptoms similar to thoracic outlet syndrome (numbness and tingling down the affected arm). While TOS is not the norm in this situation, the result would be the removal of the first rib. It’s difficult to say at this point what Aaron Judge’s outlook for the 2020 season will be, but this additional time is certainly going to benefit his health.

    Giancarlo Stanton – Giancarlo Stanton was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right calf on February 25. This injury typically takes 3-4 weeks to fully heal and is notorious for having a moderate risk of re-injury. Due to the delay of the season, the Yankees have been able to ensure the health of Stanton’s calf by taking his rehab process slowly.

    Stanton progressed from anti-gravity treadmill work (less strenuous than traditional treadmill) to throwing and on-field drills. Stanton appeared in only 18 regular-season games for the Yankees in 2019 due to multiple injuries, including a left biceps strain, left shoulder strain, left calf strain, partial quad tear, and a right knee PCL sprain. Let’s hope that Stanton is not only ready for the new start to the season, but is also able to stay healthy throughout the 2020 season.

    Nick Senzel – Senzel underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder back in September of 2019. He suffered the injury while crashing into the center field wall on August 31. Before the halt in play due to the virus, Senzel was already participating fully in Cactus League action as a designated hitter.

    However, he was not able to gain clearance to play in the field and that’s most likely in order to avoid having to make any long throws from the outfield. He’s been throwing from the outfield in drills, but it’s smart to bring him along gradually. This labrum injury will require constant maintenance from Senzel and the Reds training staff. Opening Day originally felt like he was putting his shoulder through unnecessary risk so this break could really pay off for the young outfielder.

    Justin Verlander – Due to this indefinite break, Justin Verlander and his team decided to take care of what sounds like a sports hernia. Though not confirmed yet, this issue has seemingly been an annoyance to him quite recently. I question whether he would have undergone this procedure on his groin if they were in the midst of a full regular season.

    There’s a six-week timeline associated with this “right groin surgery” which has led me to the belief of a sports hernia. Although a sports hernia may lead to a traditional, abdominal hernia, it is a different injury. A sports hernia is a strain or tear of any soft tissue in the lower abdomen/groin area. Particularly vulnerable are the tendons that attach the oblique muscles and thigh muscles (groin) to the pubic bone.

    I’m curious if his latissimus dorsi strain from early March was associated with this injury at all. His pitching mechanics possibly were altered due to his groin irritation. This is unlikely to impact Verlander during whatever is left of the 2020 season.

     

  • Fielding Bible Excerpt: Matt Chapman vs. Nolan Arenado

    The following is an excerpt from our new book, The Fielding Bible-Volume V, which is available for purchase now at ACTA Sports and Amazon.

    By Mark Simon

    The Fielding Bible—Volume IV included an essay analyzing who was the better third baseman: 2014 Gold Glove winner Kyle Seager or 2014 Fielding Bible Award winner Josh Donaldson.

    In the spirit of that essay, and using a similar methodology, we decided to look at another debate at the hot corner: Who is the better third baseman—Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado?

    This is a topic that has come up a few times in articles we’ve written. The support for Arenado is loud and proud, largely from Rockies fans, and understandably so, given that he’s won seven Gold Gloves in seven seasons in the major leagues. The support for Chapman is passionate but seems smaller in size, perhaps because he’s only played two-and-a-half seasons and is on a small-market team on the West Coast.

    Chapman has the overall edge in Defensive Runs Saved by a considerable margin whether we measure using 2019, the last two seasons, or the last three seasons, but that doesn’t necessarily satisfy those who like Arenado. So let’s look at this through the lens of different defensive components to show where the differences lie.

    We’ll use two years of data for our evaluation to account for Chapman’s two full seasons in the majors and to give both players a more sizable sample size than just 2019.

    Who has the better arm?

    Thanks to our new PART system, we have a few ways to measure this.

    Strictly going by Throwing Runs Saved, Chapman has an 18-8 edge. This makes sense intuitively if you’ve watched Chapman at all. He’s great at making throws from along the third base line right to the target at first base. Arenado has a good arm, but he doesn’t have the power behind his throws that Chapman does.

    In terms of accuracy, Arenado does come out a smidge ahead. Our Good Throw Rate stat looks at throws to first base and how often those throws resulted in an error, misplay, or good play by the first baseman to prevent an error.

    Arenado had 502 good throws, six throwing errors, two throwing misplays and 15 throws resulting in a good play by the first baseman. His Good Throw rating is 95.6% (502 good throws out of 525 opportunities).

    Chapman had 524 good throws, seven throwing errors, no throwing misplays and 24 throws resulting in a good play by the first baseman. His Good Throw rating is 94.4% (524 good throws out of 555 opportunities).

    Who covers more ground?

    To the eye, it may look like Chapman and Arenado are comparable in terms of their range. But the numbers indicate they are not.

    Chapman has a 38-17 Range Runs Saved edge over the last two seasons.

    Why is that?

    Let’s look at how each of them does on balls hit to their left, right, and straight on:

    Nolan Arenado by Direction, 2018-19
    Direction Plays Made Opps Plays Above Avg
    Left 279 495 27
    Straight On 279 314 7
    Right 113 181 -2

     

     Matt Chapman by Direction, 2018-19
    Direction Plays Made Opps Plays Above Avg
    Left 274 443 35
    Straight On 253 269 18
    Right 115 156 17

    Arenado supporters will likely point to Arenado’s signature—the barehand play. Indeed, Arenado had a 20-4 edge in barehand plays over Chapman last season (the only other third baseman with more than 10 in 2019 was Kris Bryant with 11) and a 38-11 advantage the last two seasons. But remember that those plays are taking away singles. Chapman’s specialty is defending would-be doubles, as noted by the success on balls hit to his right.

    Scout’s eye

    Throughout the season, SIS Video Scouts scrutinize every ball in play and assign a primary responsibility to one fielder on each ball. Then, they assign a 1-5 rating of the difficulty of each play, from a 1 representing a routine play that every fielder is expected to make to a 5 representing a play that the fielder had zero chance at making.

    The Scouts Defensive Rating awards credit or penalty for making plays relative to how frequently players at a position convert plays of similar difficulty. Those are then summed and debited for all plays on which the fielder was responsible to get the rating.

    Using the Scouts Defensive Rating system, Chapman had a 56.0 to 43.3 advantage in Plays Saved over Arenado over the last two seasons. The next-closest to them is Anthony Rendon, 20.9.

    Chapman’s advantage was basically negligible in plays with a 1 or 2 grade. He separated himself by converting 65-of-87 Grade 3 plays (74%) and 42-of-122 Grade 4 plays (34%), both of which were the highest conversion rates among third basemen.

    Arenado converted 58-of-89 Grade 3 (65%) and 45-of-146 Grade 4 (31%) plays. Not too shabby. But not quite Chapman.

    One other thing that our scouts do is chart Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors. Good Fielding Plays are largely Web Gem-like defensive plays but also include things like keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a baserunner from taking an extra base. Misplays & Errors include all plays scored errors, along with things like failing to turn a double play because of a mishandled ball.

    Arenado leads Chapman in Good Fielding Plays over the last two seasons, 92-83, but also has more Misplays & Errors, 61-54. They essentially have the same ratio of Good Plays to Misplays & Errors, 1.5-to-1.

    Overall

    There are many good arguments to be made in Chapman’s favor in this discussion. In fact, you could make the case that the difference between the two is not close.

    The best argument for Arenado is the longevity one—let’s see Chapman do this for seven straight years. The fun of this will be watching whether Chapman can sustain playing at this incredible level given how injuries, wear-and-tear, and age could impact him down the road.

  • Q&A: Hall-of-Famer Ozzie Smith on Defensive Excellence

    Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith is arguably the greatest defensive shortstop of all-time. Known as ‘The Wizard’ for his ability to make impossible plays, Smith played 19 seasons with the Padres and Cardinals, winning a record 13 Gold Gloves, and a World Series with the Cardinals in 1982. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2002. He talked to Mark Simon last November.

    This essay is excerpted from The Fielding Bible-Volume V, available now from ACTASports.com and Amazon.com

    Simon: “What does the idea of defensive excellence mean to someone like you?”

    Smith: “Defensive excellence, as it is with everything, is trying to be as consistent as you can possibly be. When people talk to me about playing shortstop, the thing that comes to mind is great plays. But I think great plays are the result of keeping yourself in a position to make the routine play.

    So much of what I did, or any shortstop for that matter, was instinctive. It’s an instinctive position. A shortstop or middle infielder is somebody who should be able to cover ground and don’t have to play to a scouting report. The scouting report is still very important, but you still have to be able to make plays if a ball is in a certain area. For me, it’s freelancing and improvisation. It’s all those things melded into one that hopefully make you into a consistent player. Making the routine play every day. Great plays will take care of themselves.”

    Simon: “With that in mind, when you go into a series with a team like the 1985 Mets, what was the defensive preparation like for you and the manager, Whitey Herzog?”

    Smith: “I don’t think there’s any way to do it. You can have the best scouting report in the world. I can remember in 1982, the first game of the World Series against the Brewers. We went strictly by the scouting report. It seemed like we were out of position on every play. After that first game, we realized we just needed to do what it is we do. Everything is played off straight-up. We may shade one way or the other. There were very few guys that were strictly pull hitters. Guys like Dave Kingman, you could shade him a little bit more to pull than Tony Gwynn, who sprayed the ball all over. We still have to figure a way to get anybody out. That comes from being able to be improvisational, making plays that are not right in your vicinity.”

    Simon: “What do you think of the things that have come into play in the last 10 years with defensive positioning?”

    Smith: “Everything has its place as long as you don’t overcook it. The bottom line for me is being consistent in the things you do. As a team, it’s never going to change. If you want to be a good team, you need to be strong up the middle. You have to have a good center fielder, hopefully a good pitcher, catcher, shortstop, second baseman. If those things are solid, it gives you a good foundation to work from. But if you’re weak at those positions, and at being able to make that routine play every day, you’re going to struggle as a team.”

    Simon: “If you were going to tell someone watching the game what they should be looking for from a shortstop, what should they be looking for?”

    Smith: “It’s movement. A good shortstop, good infielder is gonna have good lateral movement left and right. Someone who always seems to be in the vicinity of where the ball is. A lot of that has to do with a pitcher pitching to his scouting report. If a pitcher can’t pitch to a scouting report and throws balls to where they’re not supposed to be thrown. I had a lot of fun with my pitchers because I’d tell them I was out there to catch their mistakes.

    That in reality is what it’s all about, to cover the mistakes your pitcher may make on any given day. I prided myself on being able to make and complete a play without being in the scouted position.”

    Simon: “The advanced defensive metrics surprise us sometimes and tell us something we didn’t know. In 2019, they liked Paul DeJong a lot and I was curious for your take on him as a shortstop.”

    Smith: “You know why? Because Paul DeJong was very consistent at making the routine play. That’s what a team depends on—when you go to the mound for a meeting, saying ‘Get a ground ball to this guy.’ That’s the guy you want to be. Paul DeJong is one of those players who’s not flashy, like Brandon Crawford of the Giants, but very consistent at what he does.

    I’ve had the chance to spend some time with Paul. He’s a bright, eager-to-learn young man who is just getting better and more consistent each year. That’s what we talked about.”

    Simon: “Do you feel the same about Kolten Wong?”

    Smith: “Kolten came into his own this year, won his first Gold Glove. I think you’ll see Paul do that as well. His consistency is something that can’t be ignored.”

    Simon: “Who do you see that reminds you of you?”

    Smith: “The position has changed so much from a defensive standpoint. From a prototypical shortstop standpoint, myself and Omar Vizquel probably paralleled each other more than anybody else because we were able to cover a lot of ground and not be dependent on positioning to make a play. I always looked at that as very, very important, to be able to cover mistakes, a bad hop or whatever. The ones who are able to do that are the ones who get a look at making the Hall of Fame.”

    Simon: “You played with a lot of players who young players would do well to emulate on defense. Can I get your take on a few, starting with Keith Hernandez?”

    Smith: “Best first baseman I ever played with. He made it easy for middle infielders because you didn’t have to be perfect with your throws. He had the improvisational ability at first base to know when to come off, when to stay on the bag. To me, a Hall of Famer.”

    Hernandez won 11 Gold Gloves, most of any first baseman

    Simon: “Willie McGee?”

    Smith: “Again, a guy who could cover mistakes. He covered a lot of ground in the outfield. Someone who was very consistent. You knew what you would get every day. That makes teams great.”

    McGee won three Gold Gloves in center field

    Simon: “Tony Pena?”

    Smith: “Great arm. A good defensive player. Fun to watch. One of those guys who came up at a time when catchers had the ability to throw a lot of runners out.”

    Pena won four Gold Gloves

    Simon: “Terry Pendleton?”

    Smith: “I’d rate him right there with Mike Schmidt at covering ground. He was one of the best at going back on the ball with his back to the infield. Surprising when you look at his size, you don’t see someone with great range or a great throwing arm. But he was very, very consistent.”

    Pendleton won three Gold Gloves

    Simon: “Is there someone from your era who doesn’t get his due defensively?”

    Smith: “I had a chance to play with Ken Oberkfell, who was also a great third baseman. They make the shortstop’s job a lot easier. It allows the shortstop to play more up the middle. It was easy playing over there because you knew that the ground to your right was covered. It allowed everybody else to move an extra step to their strength. When I look at the best teams I played with. The 1982 team and 1985 team were teams that moved in unison. If I moved a step, you moved a step. Ground was covered.

    That’s not taken into consideration, but when you look back, we operated as a unit. If I moved on the field, I had to let my second baseman, third baseman, first baseman know I moved. It makes everybody else’s job easier.”

    Simon: “When I was little, I watched The Baseball Bunch and I remember Ozzie Smith teaching me that ‘Wall Ball’ (throwing a ball against a wall and catching it) was a great way to practice. What tips would you give to a player who moved beyond ‘Wall Ball’ regarding learning the intricacies of shortstop?”

    Smith: “There’s no substitute for blood, sweat, and tears. As blessed as I was from a defensive standpoint with my hand-eye coordination, one of the favorite parts of my day was going out and taking ground balls. It put me in a certain place of peace. It was a release for me to do that. If there was a bad spot on the field, then it was important for me to know so I could anticipate a ball taking a hop in a certain place.

    Even when I played on AstroTurf, people say it’s easier because you got a true bounce. But you had to play around seams in the turf. In some places we played, the seams could be right in front of you. So you had to anticipate what the ball is going to do in a certain spot. That’s one of the reasons I took ground balls every day. One thing I try to tell kids today is that in life, you only get out what you put in. If you don’t put anything in, you shouldn’t be getting anything in return.”

     

     

  • Why Paul DeJong Belongs Among MLBs Elite Shortstops

    The following is an article that appears in The Fielding BibleVolume V. You can purchase the book at ACTASports, Amazon, or wherever books are sold.

    By Mark Simon

    Paul DeJong of the Cardinals tied for the MLB lead among shortstops with 26 Defensive Runs Saved last season.

    That is a stat that should surprise you. Javier Baez dazzles regularly on highlight reels. Nick Ahmed has won two straight NL Gold Gloves. Trevor Story is one of a few heralded as the game’s standouts.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved—Shortstops (2019)
    Player DRS
    Paul DeJong 26
    Javier Baez 26
    Nick Ahmed 17
    Trevor Story 14

    DeJong on the other hand is rather ordinary. He finished 10th among shortstops in our Scouts Defensive Rating system, which essentially serves as a proxy for the eye test. He ranked last among shortstops in Good Fielding Plays per 1,000 innings (in other words, he didn’t have a lot of Web Gems). There is nothing in watching DeJong that would make you think he was the DRS leader at shortstop in 2019.

    But what DeJong did was play and he played well. He started 156 games at shortstop. He led all shortstops in putouts, was one shy of the lead in assists, and turned 29 more double plays than anyone else at the position (the widest gap between the leader and No. 2 since 1982).

    DeJong was a product of both opportunity and of being good. In particular, DeJong rated highly on balls hit to his left (in other words, usually up the middle). He had a knack for the play in which he quickly shuffled left and fielded the ball behind second base, occasionally diving, but usually just having good anticipatory instincts and a quick first step.

    Those balls didn’t get past Cardinals infielders. They converted 62% of groundballs hit past the mound and within 10 feet to the left or right of second base into outs, the second-highest rate in the majors.

    DeJong converted 173 of 265 balls hit to his left in which he had a greater than 0% chance of making a play, a 65% out rate. Baez had a 67% rate. However, there are two things to keep in mind.

    1) The expected out rate on DeJong’s balls was 57%. The expected out rate for Baez was 65%. In other words, the balls up the middle against DeJong had a higher degree of difficulty.

    2) DeJong had 72 more opportunities on those balls, thus giving him more opportunities to be above average at making plays.

    And DeJong’s 65% out rate on balls hit to his left was much better than Story (60%) and Ahmed (53%).

    Plays Made Above Expectations
    Player To His Right Straight On To His Left
    DeJong 11 2 22
    Baez 12 6 8
    Story 5 3 7
    Ahmed 18 5 -3

    DeJong did this without sacrificing balls hit either to his right or those hit within his immediate vicinity. DeJong was 13 plays above average on those balls, which was better than Story. It wasn’t as good as Baez or Ahmed, but the gap between them wasn’t as large as the gap between the DeJong and everyone else on balls hit up the middle.

    Want to look at this another way? Here’s a look at how often the top shortstops get an out on balls with a 25 to 75% out probability. This encompasses a wide swath of types of plays: from the challenging, but not impossible, to the routine, but not easy.

     Individual Out Rate on Batted Balls – With Out Probability Between 25% and 75%
    Player Actual

    Out Rate

    Expected

    Out Rate

    DeJong 66% 51%
    Baez 66% 53%
    Story 62% 52%
    Ahmed 56% 50%

    DeJong excelled because he fulfilled the bottom line. He got outs when he was supposed to get outs and got outs when he wasn’t supposed to get outs. The damage done on balls hit near him was minimal, more so than anyone at the position, similar to his teammate, two-time Fielding Bible Award-winning second baseman Kolten Wong.

    Did this make DeJong one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball in 2019? That’s a question without a right answer. It’s a matter of opinion. There is a good case to be made for many. But if we stick to the facts, we can tell you that DeJong (and Baez) saved more runs than any other shortstop in the majors last season. It may be surprising, but it’s what the data shows.

  • Notable Updates to Defensive Runs Saved

    By Brian Reiff

    Prior to the 2020 MLB season, Sports Info Solutions (SIS) announced major upgrades to its flagship defensive metric, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). These upgrades centered around the incorporation of infielder starting positions in the calculations and the improvements that were consequently able to be made.

    Knowing where infielders started on the play allows us to separate out their Positioning from their other contributions on a play, namely their Range and their Throwing. Therefore, the new system is called the PART System, which stands for Positioning, Air balls, Range and Throwing.

    The PART System has replaced the Range and Positioning System (formerly known as the Plus/Minus System) as the primary component of DRS for infielders for all seasons since 2013. (Outfielders will continue to be evaluated using the Range and Positioning System.) This article focuses specifically on this new component, although further explanations and descriptions for the others can be found in the original DRS Glossary entry on FanGraphs or at FieldingBible.com.

    The PART System

    At its core, the PART System’s goal is to split a fielder’s contributions into its individual components. This differs from its predecessor, which calculated and reported a fielder’s positioning, range and throwing contributions as a single number.

    One of the primary reasons for the development of this new system was the massive increase in shift usage in recent years, since DRS had not included shift plays in its analysis of players before this update. In 2010, less than 2% of all balls in play featured a shift being employed by the fielding team, per SIS charting. In 2019, that number was over 40%.

    In 2012, SIS realized that this increase in shifts was skewing individual player numbers—the example cited was Brett Lawrie, a third baseman who was often stationed in short right field when the team shifted its fielders. Because of this, he was making plays in “zones” that no other third baseman could and receiving tremendous amounts of credit as a result. At the time, the solution was to eliminate these shift plays from consideration when evaluating a fielder’s contributions, and instead calculate Shift Runs Saved at the team level. In an era where shifting was still a rarity, this decision made sense, but now that teams are shifting on nearly half of all balls in play (and showing no signs of slowing down), a different approach has become necessary to continue accurately and completely evaluating players.

    This new approach is the PART System. Rather than exclude plays where fielders are lined up dramatically differently from a traditional alignment, the PART System is able to handle these plays by incorporating the fielder’s starting position into the calculation of his Runs Saved on the play. Thus, what was becoming a large gap in individual player defensive evaluation has effectively been filled, all the while opening the door for greater and more in-depth analysis.

    Positioning and Shifts

    The PART System utilizes the starting positioning data collected by SIS to separate a fielder’s positioning from everything else they do on the play.

    The primary benefit of this is that players can be credited for what they can actually control. Positioning has been effectively removed from a player’s DRS total on the premise that teams now control where a player is standing more than the player does. Whatever credit the fielder may receive or lose on a play is based on where they were standing when the ball was hit, rather than simply assuming they were standing in a traditional starting location.

    Positioning, while removed from players’ DRS totals, is still aggregated and accounted for on the team level. Each team is now credited with a certain number of Infield Positioning Runs Saved, which is composed of the team’s positioning on both shifted and unshifted plays.

    Speaking of shifts—until this update, SIS had not included plays where the defense was shifted in its evaluation of individual fielders. This was because, in shifts, fielders could be positioned in vastly different locations than they would be in a standard alignment and therefore receive large amounts of undue credit for making plays that no other player at the position even had a chance of making.

    Fortunately, this is no longer a concern with the introduction of the PART System. No plays are excluded from the calculation, and, because the players’ positioning is used to determine the amount of credit they receive, “The Lawrie Problem” is a non-issue. If the ball is hit at or near the fielder, they will receive a lower amount of credit than if it is hit far away, regardless of where they were standing at the time of the pitch.

    Despite the inclusion of plays classified as shifts in player evaluation, SIS continues to estimate the number of runs each team is saving using the shift. In fact, the new calculation more accurately measures how many runs were saved by shifts independent of the quality of fielders who were in the field at the time. The new Shift Runs Saved, which is a subset of Infield Positioning Runs Saved, only takes into account the team’s positioning on shifts, as opposed to the previous version of Shift Runs Saved that could not make a distinction between the team’s positioning and the fielders’ out-converting abilities.

    Air-Range-Throwing Breakdown

    So far, Positioning is the only component of PART that has been discussed. The other components—Air, Range and Throwing—are what actually comprise each player’s ART Runs Saved total, the component that is replacing the former Range & Positioning Runs Saved in the new version of DRS.

    Range is perhaps the most intuitive of the three, although there is still some clarification needed. In this system, range represents a fielder’s ability to reach a batted ball in an efficient and timely manner. If a fielder reaches a ball that no one else would’ve, they will receive positive range credit. However, if they fail to reach a ball, or take longer than expected to reach it, they will receive negative range credit. It’s also worth specifying that, because of the way SIS data is collected, range is only concerned about when or if the fielder touches the ball, not whether they field it cleanly.

    Everything that happens after the fielder touches the ball is considered part of the Throwing sub-component, which, obviously, means that the name is vastly oversimplified.

    This means that on a given play, a fielder might receive Throwing credit despite not throwing the ball at all, a typical example being a fielder who steps on a base for a putout. It also means that, when a throw actually is made, this sub-component measures the fielder’s ability to field the ball cleanly, plant their feet (or not) and fire a ball quickly and accurately to whomever is receiving the ball. Ideally, each of those would be measured individually sometime in the future.

    Last, and probably least, is Air. As of this writing, SIS only collects infielder starting positioning data on all groundballs and short line drives (GSL). Therefore, the PRT sub-component splits only apply on those types of balls in play, which, in fairness, make up approximately 80% of all balls fielded by infielders. On the other ~20% of non-bunt balls in play fielded by infielders—composed essentially of bloops and popups—any credit or debit a fielder earns on a play will apply toward their Air Runs Saved. Because SIS does not record infielder starting positioning on these plays, non-GSL plays in which the defense is shifted will continue to be excluded from a player’s DRS total.

    When combined, a player’s Air, Range and Throwing runs saved will comprise their ART Runs Saved.

    Each sub-component is reported separately over at FieldingBible.com to allow for the comparison of individual skills and attributes of various players.

    Directional Ability

    Another upgrade comes in the form of evaluating a player’s ability by direction. Because a player’s starting positioning was not known in the previous system, this could only be done in terms of where a fielder was traditionally positioned. For example, a third baseman could be judged on plays down the line, in the hole, or straight on, but on a ball considered “straight on”, there’s no guarantee that it was actually hit at them. If the fielder was positioned close to the line, the ball would have been to their left; if they were positioned in the hole, it would have been to their right. While the breakdown was useful, especially in understanding how fielders were positioned, it did not accurately reflect a player’s ability to field balls in particular directions.

    That is no longer the case thanks to the starting positioning data. Knowing where the ball traveled in relation to where the fielder started the play allows for evaluation of a fielder based on what direction they had to move to field the ball.

    For each of the three directional groups, a fielder is compared against others at their position in terms of both Plays Above Average and Runs Above Average (or Runs Saved). Again, these numbers are reported at FieldingBible.com for those who wish to view them.

    Evaluation of Multiple Fielders on a Play

    Knowing where each fielder started on a play allows for an additional benefit: the evaluation of multiple fielders on a play. Under the Range and Positioning System, and by most if not all other public defensive metrics, if a team successfully records an out on a play, the fielder who recorded the assist or putout is given credit and every other player on the field receives nothing. Usually, this is a fair thing to do. Most plays will only feature one relevant fielder who should be credited or debited. But what about the cases where that’s not appropriate?

    Consider a ball that is hit in the third base-shortstop hole, directly between the two fielders. The third baseman, who was positioned shallower than the shortstop, goes for the ball, but it gets by him. Behind him, the shortstop fields the ball and throws it to first for the out.

    In any other defensive system, the shortstop would get credit for making the play, and that would be that. But why should that be it? We know the third baseman had a chance of making the out himself—in fact, we know exactly how likely he was to make the out. If there was an inferior shortstop behind him, the ball might have made it to the outfield, or the shortstop might not have gotten the throw to first base in time. The third baseman’s credit on the play is determined by something completely out of his control—the quality of his teammate.

    The PART System offers a solution to this. By knowing where each player started on the field, it can assess multiple fielders on the same play under the assumption that fielders who are positioned shallower (closer to home plate) are able to act on the ball before fielders who are positioned deeper (further away from home plate). In this example, not only would the shortstop be given credit, but the third baseman would also be debited for having failed to make the play himself.

    Right now, this assessment of multiple fielders is only utilized on plays where the defense is shifted, although that may be changed in the future. This was done to keep players’ unshifted DRS as similar as possible to how it was being reported previously (at least methodologically—obviously, excluding positioning from DRS is still a major change). On plays where the defense is not shifted, fielders are less likely to be standing close to each other anyway, so it’s unlikely that a play would occur where two or more fielders both have a non-insignificant chance of making an out and therefore unlikely to matter as much. That said, this is an area that SIS expects to research heavily in the coming months as more upgrades are made to the PART System, especially as it pertains to fielders deferring to their teammates on balls either of them could field.

    How the Numbers are Changing

    Understanding how the PART System differs in its evaluation of players from the Range & Positioning System is difficult. To show how two systems relate, let’s use Javier Baez as an example.

    Using the Range & Positioning System, Baez saved 15 runs in 2019, good for third among shortstops. Using the PART System, he saved 26 runs, tied for first among shortstops. So where did those 11 runs come from?

    To keep things as simple as possible, instead of looking at total DRS—which includes things like Double Play Runs Saved and Good Fielding Play Runs Saved, for example—just Baez’s Range & Positioning Runs Saved and PART Runs Saved will be looked at. In 2019, Baez saved 8 and 19 runs, respectively, by those components of DRS. The 11-run difference is still there. That’s important to note—this singular component of DRS is the only component that’s changing. All the other components are staying the same.

    But anyway, the 11-run difference: On plays where the Cubs didn’t use a shift in 2019, the Cubs’ positioning of Baez cost the team one run. That’s part of the difference—PART Runs Saved doesn’t count that against him, unlike the Range & Positioning System. Secondly, Baez saved 10 runs with his range and throwing on plays where the Cubs were shifted. Again, those plays weren’t included in his Range & Positioning Runs Saved total, but they are included in his PART Runs Saved total.

    Now to add the numbers back together. Baez is given back the one run his positioning cost the Cubs, since the PART System does not credit or debit fielders for their positioning. Starting from his eight Range & Positioning Runs Saved, that brings him to nine. Then, adding the 10 runs he saved when the Cubs were shifted brings him to 19 runs saved, the exact number that the PART Runs Saved System awarded him.

    To summarize:

    Range & Positioning Runs Saved – Non-Shift Positioning Runs Saved + Shift ART Runs Saved = PART Runs Saved

    Now, I’ll admit I cherry-picked this example and this will not work out as nicely as it did for Baez for every fielder. Because there were other small improvements and bug fixes made as part of this upgrade, this math won’t add up exactly for everyone. But it’s close. Using the above equation for every infielder (excluding pitchers and catchers) who played in 2019, the average of the absolute values of the differences between the left-hand and right-hand sides of the equations was 0.58 runs. So, if you’re confused about how a player’s PART value was determined, using that equation will get you almost entirely the way there.

    Here are the players who changed the most between the two systems in 2019:

    Player Pos Pre-2020 DRS Non-Shift Pos RS Shift ART RS PART DRS Change
    Matt Chapman 3B 18 -10 9 34 16
    Paul DeJong SS 14 0 12 26 12
    Javier Baez SS 15 -1 10 26 11
    Miguel Rojas SS 12 3 -6 2 -10
    Nolan Arenado 3B 8 1 11 18 10

     

    Context

    The scale for evaluating players’ DRS hasn’t changed much with the update. The same tiers that had been used with DRS still applies to the new totals. As a reminder, those tiers are:

    Defensive Ability DRS
    Gold Glove Caliber +15
    Great +10
    Above Average +5
    Average  0
    Below Average -5
    Poor -10
    Awful -15

    Methodology

    While it may seem much more complex, in reality, the PART System is not that much more complex than the Range & Positioning System. Both rely on the Plus/Minus technique, where credit is given or taken away based on how difficult of a play it was for the fielder. For example, imagine a batted ball with a given velocity and spray angle. Past balls in play with similar characteristics were turned into an out 60% of the time. If the fielder ends up making the play, they would receive 0.4 plays worth of credit (1.0-0.6); if they don’t make the play, they would be debited 0.6 plays (0.0-0.6). In this way, fielders get credited more for making more difficult plays and credited less for making easy plays. An average fielder would then save a net of zero plays for the season.

    The difference with the PART System is that it uses the Plus/Minus technique for three different components: Positioning, Range and Throwing (as noted above, Air Runs Saved is an independent calculation). To do this, three different Out Rates must be calculated:

    A – The chance that the play will be made given only information about the batted ball (trajectory, location, and velocity) and the batter (speed)

    B – The chance that the play will be made given information about the batted ball (trajectory, location, and velocity), the batter (speed), and the initial positioning of the fielders relative to the ball in play

    C – The chance that the play will be made at the point that the fielder obtains the ball given the distance he has to throw and how long he has to complete the play before the batter/runner reaches safely

    Combined with this is a variable (here referred to as D) that is set to either 1 if the fielder made the play, or 0 if they did not. With those Out Rates in hand, determining how much credit to assign to each component is simple subtraction:

    Positioning= A – B

    Range = C – B

    Throwing = D – C

    An example may help to make things clearer. Take a groundball hit up the middle over the pitcher’s mound, just barely on the third base side of the field. The majority of shortstops wouldn’t make this play given where they would usually be standing, so Out Rate A is low, say 0.2.

    However, the shortstop in this instance was positioned well, and so they only have to move a few feet to field the ball. Given that it’s a relatively easy play when the fielder’s position was known, Out Rate B is reasonably high—let’s say 0.7. In other words, 70 percent of shortstops make this play when they’re standing where this one was in relation to where the ball was heading.

    This shortstop has particularly good instincts (we’ll call them Ambrelton Timmons) and they get to the ball quicker than an average shortstop would. Because of the extra time afforded to the shortstop to get the ball to first base, their expected out rate makes another jump—Out Rate C is then 0.9. And, predictably, the shortstop makes the out, so D is 1.0.

    On this play, here’s how the shortstop’s credit would break down:

    Positioning= 0.7 – 0.2 = 0.5

    Range = 0.9 – 0.7 = 0.2

    Throwing = 1.0 – 0.9 = 0.1

    Of course, those components are all still in the units of plays saved, and they still have to be converted to runs. But that right there is the essence of how the PART System works. Instead of receiving 0.8 plays’ worth of credit (1.0 – 0.2), the shortstop here would only receive 0.3 plays’ worth of credit (1.0 – 0.7), split between range and throwing. Of course, it’s actually slightly more complicated than that.

    One adjustment that needs to be made is for poorly positioned fielders on plays where the team was well positioned. The most common example of this is a play in which the team in the field is employing a shift—the second baseman moves over to short right field, and the shortstop moves over to the right-hand side of second base. On a ball hit to the shortstop, the second baseman would initially be determined to have been positioned poorly. While a traditionally positioned second baseman may have been able to make the play, the one in this example had no chance because of their positioning in shallow right field. However, the ball was hit straight to the shortstop, so the team was still positioned well.

    To account for this, adjustments are made such that no fielder can receive negative positioning credit when their team is positioned well, and no fielder can receive positive positioning credit when their team is positioned poorly.

    The other primary adjustment, at least on shift plays, arises from the fact that multiple fielders are assessed on each play. When a ball is fielded by a shallower fielder, the deeper fielder’s range obviously should not be penalized, as it was impossible to know if he would have made the play or not. So, on shift plays, any fielder who was positioned deeper than the one who first touched the ball will not receive any range credit or debit.

    Furthermore, the fielder that first touched the ball on these plays will “steal” the out rates from those behind them. This is done to prevent players from being over-credited when they make a play that would have otherwise been easy for the fielder behind them. For example, on a routine grounder to the shortstop, the third baseman decides to instead cut the ball off and make the play himself.

    The third baseman may have had a low chance of converting the out, but they would not receive credit as if it were a difficult play because it was not, at least for the team. Whatever the shortstop’s expectation of making the play was would be added to the third baseman’s, and the third baseman’s range credit would then be determined based off that new expected out rate. If the third baseman’s initial out rate was 0.05 and the shortstop’s was 0.90, the third baseman would be debited 0.95 plays’ worth of credit.

    Conclusion

    The PART System has replaced the Range & Positioning System in DRS going back to 2013, the first year for which SIS collected the infield starting position data. Going forward, SIS will continue to make improvements to the PART System and DRS as a whole as it continues to strive toward its goal of being at the forefront of defensive analytics.

    Most Important Takeaways
    Positioning is no longer factored into a player’s Defensive Runs Saved total

    This system allows for the evaluation of all infield plays, not just ones involving an unshifted defense

    Transition from evaluating: “How often did a player make that play?” to “How often did a player make that play given where they were positioned?” with the PART System

    The result is a more accurate overall depiction of defensive performance

     

    This article is adapted from The Fielding Bible – Volume V. For more information on this stat, check out FieldingBible.com

  • New podcast: Biomechanics and Analytics in College Baseball with Wake Forest’s Tom Walter

    LISTEN HERE

    On this edition of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) welcomes baseball back. Hooray!

    He’s then joined by Wake Forest (@WakeBaseball) baseball coach Tom Walter (@WaltWFU), who explains how the school’s state-of-the-art pitching lab came to be (2:18), how information gets translated from the language of a PhD to the language of baseball (5:44), the difference between performance science and analytics now versus when Coach Walter first began coaching (8:31), how the school applies the lab to studying hitters too (10:52), how his program uses shifting and how their shifts adjust based on count (12:06), future developments in performance science (15:03), expectations for this season (16:36), and what the team does in the local community (17:36).

  • Fielding Bible Volume V preview: The Twins defense

    By Mark Simon

    Marwin Gonzalez may have finished ninth in the 2019 Fielding Bible Multi-Position Award voting, but it would be hard to find a player more versatile than he is. Gonzalez started at least 10 games at each corner infield spot and each corner outfield spot. He did much more good than harm at those positions, saving five runs at left field and third base, and one run in right field. He did cost the team two runs at first base, so he wasn’t perfect, but his success at the other three spots made up for any deficiencies.

    The Twins needed the help, particularly at third and left, where Miguel Sano’s defense cost the team seven runs and Eddie Rosario’s cost them six runs. Though the Twins won the AL Central, their defense was not their strong suit – except in a few cases, like Gonzalez delivering as advertised.

    The Twins won’t need Gonzalez to play third in 2020 with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Donaldson matched a career-high with 15 Runs Saved there with the Braves last season. That total ranked third in the majors behind Matt Chapman (34) and Nolan Arenado (18).

     Buxton Among Best When Healthy

    The strongest suit of the Twins defense is center fielder Byron Buxton, who saved 10 runs in an injury-shortened season. Buxton probably wouldn’t have challenged Lorenzo Cain for the Fielding Bible Award had he stayed healthy, but he definitely would have given Kevin Kiermaier a run for his money for the AL Gold Glove.

    Buxton was as good as it gets on balls hit to the deepest part of center field, catching 96-of-111 in which he had a greater than zero chance to make a play. That was nine plays above his expected total. On a per 100 plays basis, he was better than Cain, for whom catches on deep balls was the most valuable part of his game.

    Mitch Garver A Much-Improved Catcher

    Mitch Garver wasn’t expected to be the better defensive catcher between him and Jason Castro, but it turned out that way in 2019. Garver made a 18-run improvement from 2018, saving one run, though that doesn’t tell the full story. Where Garver’s improvement came was in pitch framing, where he went from costing the Twins eight runs to saving them a run. He and Tucker Barnhart of the Reds were two catchers who greatly benefited from individual instruction (Barnhart’s improvements are noted in the Reds essay).

    Garver’s improvements were documented in the Minnesota media and were attributed to Garver’s working with catching coach Tanner Swanson.

    To illustrate the difference Swanson made, consider pitches that BIS plotted that were low, but were over the plate and within one inch of the knees. In 2018, Garver and his pitchers got the call 10% of the time (14-of-141). In 2019, that improved to 31% (39-of-125).

    The numbers indicate that Garver still has some work to do, particularly when it comes to blocking pitches and stopping stolen bases. He cost the Twins seven runs in those areas in 2018 and five in 2019.

    Max Kepler Gets The Job Done

    Max Kepler may not win any Fielding Bible Awards in right field but if you’re looking for consistency from an outfielder, he should be in every discussion. Kepler has saved eight, five, 13, and eight runs in the outfield the last four seasons. He plays right field well and has filled in as the center fielder when Buxton got hurt, saving three runs in 2018 and four in 2019.

    What’s interesting to watch about Kepler in right field is that he gets it done without a lot of splash. He had only one sliding or diving catch in 2019. Kepler’s means of making a play there comes down to his route running. By Statcast’s numbers, he matched Mike Trout and Andrew Benintendi in having the most efficiently run routes within three seconds of bat-ball contact.