The Mets signed Joe Panik today. That’s not a signing that would be thought of as much of a big deal. However …
Panik is hitting .235 with three home runs and a .627 OPS this season.
However, he misses on only 10% of his swings (the third-lowest rate in MLB). Also, his expected numbers indicate that he was underachieving with the Giants.
Based on batted ball type, location and velocity, Panik’s expected numbers by our metrics are a .281 batting average with eight home runs and a .774 OPS.
Note that our inputs are different from Statcast’s, which aren’t as bullish on him, but still indicate a 36-point difference in expected and actual slugging percentage and a 23-point difference between expected and actual wOBA.
Panik grades out as an average defender by Defensive Runs Saved this season.
However, average is an upgrade for the Mets, given Robinson Cano’s struggles both at the plate and in the field for much of the season. Panik also has 18 Good Fielding Plays, based on review from our Video Scouts. That’s tied for fourth by a second basemen this season. He also ranked in the top-third among second basemen in most Good Fielding Plays per 100 Innings and fewest Defensive Misplays & Errors per 100 innings this season.
Panik contributed -0.4 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference version) to the Giants this season.
However, things tended to go better when he played than when he didn’t. The Giants are 46-39 when he started this season. They’re 11-20 when he didn’t.
Several years ago, Bill James established a formula to determine the hottest teams in baseball (subscription required to view), with the idea being that every team starts the season at room temperature (72 degrees) and then tracks upward or downward with the result of each game.
He also devised a formula for hitters using a similar scale but based on each plate appearance. Positive results produce an increase in temperature. Negative results produce a decline.
The hottest team in baseball at the moment is the Mets, and that’s largely a product of their winning 13 of 14 games against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, and Marlins. The schedule gets much tougher for the Mets beginning Friday when they start a three-game series with the NL Wild Card-leading Nationals.
The Mets also have two of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil rank second and third behind only Giovanny Urshela of the Yankees. Conforto is hitting .338 with eight home runs and 17 RBI in his last 21 games. He reached 100 career home runs in a win over the Marlins on Wednesday.
McNeil has been a hot hitter all season. He went 0-for-3 on Opening Day but since then his batting average has been at least .327 at the end of every day this season. McNeil excels because he hits the ball all over the field. He’s one of the best in baseball at finding holes in an opposing defense, as evidenced by his .397 batting average when hitting a ground ball or short line drive against a defensive shift.
The AL’s hottest team at the moment is the Astros, who have won 16 of 19 games, with their four most recent wins coming from Aaron Sanchez (the combined no-hitter), Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Gerrit Cole.
The Astros are a complete team. They rank in the top three in the American League in all three slash line stats. They have two hitters currently in the top 10 on the hottest hitters list in Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. Bregman is 11-for-23 with eight runs scored and seven RBIs during the Astros’ current six-game winning streak. Gurriel was the AL Player of the Month in July. He has 45 RBIs in his last 31 games, including eight in a win over the Rockies on Wednesday.
Their starting rotation includes three of the game’s top pitchers in Verlander, Greinke, and Cole. Their bullpen is strong with Will Harrisand Ryan Pressly setting up Roberto Osuna. And their defense leads the American League in Defensive Runs Saved.
The way the Astros are playing, it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re at or near the top of the hottest teams list throughout the rest of the season. But whether or not they finish the year there will depend if they can maintain that all the way through October.
Yesterday, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted a question to his followers: Would an All-New York team, made up of players from the Mets and Yankees, win the World Series?
I tend to think yes, and pretty easily to boot. But would the New York Mankees (Yets? Metsees?) be best of the crosstown teams? Let’s find out by making three teams, one for each of the three cities with two teams, and comparing. Let’s start with the offenses:
STARTING LINEUPS
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
C
Gary Sanchez (NYY)
Will Smith (LAD)
Willson Contreras (CHC)
1B
Pete Alonso (NYM)
Cody Bellinger (LAD)
Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
2B
Gleyber Torres (NYY)
Max Muncy (LAD)
Yoan Moncada (CWS)
3B
Gio Urshela (NYY)
Justin Turner (LAD)
Kris Bryant (CHC)
SS
Amed Rosario (NYM)
Corey Seager (LAD)
Javier Baez (CHC)
LF
Jeff McNeil (NYM)
Alex Verdugo (LAD)
Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
CF
Aaron Hicks (NYY)
Mike Trout (LAA)
Jason Heyward (CHC)
RF
Michael Conforto (NYM)
Kole Calhoun (LAA)
Nicholas Castellanos (CHC)
DH
Aaron Judge (NYY)
Shohei Ohtani (LAA)
Jose Abreu (CWS)
We’re aware that we’re cheating by putting Moncada at second base, where he hasn’t played all season. But he played there last year, so it works in that regard.Here’s where each offense ranks in some macro-level stats this year:
ADDENDUM: We’d also add DJ LeMahieu, David Fletcher and Tim Anderson as utility players if we had such a spot; Fletcher and LeMahieu have been excellent while playing multiple positions, and Anderson has been very good but not quite as good as Baez.
Hard-Hit Rate
Note that our hard-hit rate, unlike others’, uses all balls in play and strikeouts as the denominator, not just balls in play.
Los Angeles (35%)
New York (31%)
Chicago (29%)
Defensive Runs Saved
This only includes DRS at the player’s position listed, not their total. Most notably, this removes all of Bellinger’s DRS as a right fielder.
Los Angeles (28)
Chicago (-15)
New York (-24)
The LA team didn’t have any eye-popping numbers, but they did have a positive Runs Saved from every single player, led by Verdugo’s +6 in left field. They would also get a spike if we added in the Dodgers and Angels combined work in shifts (the Dodgers lead the majors in Shift Runs Saved)
The Chicago team was brought down by Heyward (-6) and Castellanos (-6), and Moncada (who was -5 in 2018). New York’s only positive contributor is McNeil (+1) with Rosario (-14) and Torres (-5) its biggest detractors. Neither New York team has performed well in defensive shifts this season.
Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)
Only offensive WAR is considered for the DHs
Los Angeles (27.7)
New York (19.6)
Chicago (18.4)
Unsurprisingly, having Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger on your team certainly helps your overall production. In fact, 1B and CF are the only two positions where the LA team leads in WAR. New York has a stronghold in LF (4.5 WAR to LA’s 3.2) and Chicago dominates up the middle on the infield (a combined 8.1 WAR to LA’s 5.2 and NY’s 3.6).
So it’s a clean sweep for Los Angeles on the hitting side–let’s see if other teams can make up ground with pitching.
New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
SP1
Jacob deGrom (NYM)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Lucas Giolito (CWS)
SP2
Noah Syndergaard (NYM)
Walker Buehler (LAD)
Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
SP3
Marcus Stroman (NYM)
Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD)
Cole Hamels (CHC)
SP4
Domingo German (NYY)
Kenta Maeda (LAD)
Yu Darvish (CHC)
SP5
Zack Wheeler (NYM)
Rich Hill (LAD)
Jon Lester (CHC)
RP1
Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Kenley Jansen (LAD)
Alex Colome (CWS)
RP2
Adam Ottavino (NYY)
Hansel Robles (LAA)
Aaron Bummer (CWS)
RP3
Zack Britton (NYY)
Ty Buttrey (LAA)
Brandon Kintzler (CHC)
Different group of players, same exercise: let’s compare some stats:
Hard-Hit Rate Allowed
New York (24%)
Chicago (25%)
Los Angeles (28%)
It was really hard to cobble together a rotation for Los Angeles made up entirely of Dodgers–the Angels really have no starting pitchers of note. That lack of depth really hurt the LA team, namely with the inclusion of Buttrey, whose hard-hit rate is 34%. Surprisingly, Maeda leads the LA pitchers with a 21% hard-hit rate allowed, and Kershaw brings up the rear of the rotation with a 31% rate.
Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)
New York (18.7)
Chicago (18.5)
Los Angeles (14.5)
0.2 WAR is well within the margin of error for Wins Above Replacement, so you really can’t go wrong when deciding between New York or Chicago for which pitching staff has been best this year. The lack of depth for Los Angeles hurts it once again, with the last two starting pitcher spots combining for just 2.2 WAR, compared to 2.5 for Chicago and 3.9 for New York.
And now, the three hybrid groups ordered by who has the most total Wins Above Replacement:
Los Angeles (42.2)
New York (38.3)
Chicago (36.9)
This is pretty close! Keep in mind we haven’t added in bench players yet — we’ve focused on who the primary players would be — so perhaps New York or Chicago could make up a little ground there (as one reader pointed out, D.J. LeMahieu fits best as a New York utility man). I don’t think you could go wrong with picking any of the three teams. But for me personally, it’s hard to go against the team that has Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, who could very well end up as the MVPs of their respective leagues. But that’s just who I’d pick right now.
Looking ahead, I’d be very tempted to pick the New York team, whose position players are all young, and whose pitching staff is loaded with potential. Contrasted with the Chicago team (which has a fairly aged pitching staff) and the Los Angeles team (whose pitching staff is rife with injury concerns even for its younger players), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the New York collection of players end up being the best a few years down the line.
For more MLB content, take a look at some of our other MLB blog posts and for more information about Sports Info Solutions, visit our website.
A lot has been made of “The Coors Effect.” Some liken it to a hangover, though any Coors drinker will tell you that requires a lot of Coors to get you in such a state of disrepair. The phrase has usually been deployed to describe a dramatic road and home effect on Rockies’ hitters, but I’d like to focus on a different subject matter as it relates to how Colorado players perform differently in their constantly shifting environs.
Outfield defense, in particular range and positioning, has been subject to vastly differing levels of performance by Rockies outfielders depending on if they are in Denver or not.
The charts below show how many plays the Rockies outfielders were above or below an average defense on balls hit to different parts of the outfield. The higher the number, the better the team is. The lower the number, they worse the outfield was at catching balls.
Rockies Plays Made Above/Below Average
All stats below are entering Tuesday
Coors 2016-2018
Shallow
Deep
Total
Plus-Minus
3-Year Plus-Minus Total
-35
2
-34
Road 2016-2018
3-Year Plus-Minus Total
17
-11
8
Coors 2019
Shallow
Deep
Total
Plus-Minus
Home Pace
-21
-7
-49
Road 2019
Road Pace
-5
10
15
As you can see, the Rockies as a team struggled with shallow hit fly balls and line drives into the cavernous confines of Coors from 2016 to 2018. However, they mostly corralled the deeper hit balls in Denver, which makes sense conventionally– singles turn into doubles and doubles turn into triples.
The downside is that playing the outfielders so deep ceded so many plays in front of the Rockies’ outfield that there ended up being 34 fewer plays made than the league average.
On the road, it was a different story; the Rockies outfielders ended up preventing a significant amount of plays in front of them while ceding some plays on deep flies.
They had above average range and positioning on the road and were a whopping 40 plays better away from Coors from 2016-2018. Going into 2019, the Rockies seemingly made an effort to get better at reaching shallow balls into the outfield at Coors and deep balls on the road.
That’s reflective in the 2019 tables above, but as you can see they ceded so many more plays on the opposite ends of the spectrum–deep flies at Coors and shallow flies and liners on the road–that they’ve been worse overall at preventing runs with their outfield range and positioning.
There are additional reasons that the Rockies’ range and positioning has declined at Coors in 2019 apart from decisions about where to position their outfielders. The choice to make Ian Desmond the everyday center fielder has been much maligned by about every advanced metric available to evaluate defensive performance.
Desmond ranks toward the bottom of the list in outfielder jump and outs above average among qualifying outfielders on Baseball Savant, and he is dead last in Defensive Runs Saved (-19 Runs Saved) to date in 2019.
On the box and whisker plots below, the whiskers represent the overall range of the plays made or not made, and the line in the box is the average (mean) run value for a player on balls hit to him.
You can see that Desmond has essentially failed to make any play on shallow balls at Coors, and as a result, he loses about a run defensively on every five balls hit in front of him.
Conversely, younger and more fleet-of-foot outfielders David Dahl (who recently went on the IL with a sprained ankle) and Raimel Tapia have more or less held their own in making plays on deep and shallow balls at Coors. Neither are perfect fits; Dahl has a -10 DRS and Tapia has a -8 DRS on the year.
This speaks to a larger point about Coors; it’s an extraordinarily hard place to prevent runs, both on the mound and in the field. Over the 17 years Baseball Info Solutions has been keeping track of DRS, Rockies’ outfielders have been 371 runs below league average. That encompasses everything we calculate — range, throwing, and making good defensive plays while avoiding mistakes.
That’s the worst, and it’s not even close; the White Sox outfielders are 29th with 191 runs below league average, which is a 180-run difference. By Range and Positioning, the Rockies do move up two spots to a tie for 27th.
It’s always going to be an uphill battle to save runs in the outfield for Colorado at home, but it’s also imperative that they make the best decisions possible with so many runs at stake. While Dahl and Tapia aren’t going to be topping the DRS leaderboards, they could be better options to track down balls at a premium position than Desmond. The Rockies tried a different look in the outfield on their last road trip, moving Desmond to left and Dahl to center (Dahl subsequently got hurt and others have played center since then). It may be worth making that a permanent change.
In the course of writing our articles in this space and at The Athletic, we’ve heard from more Javier Báez fans than those supporting any other player. People love both how he plays defense and how well he plays defense.
So with the Chicago Cubs playing the Oakland Athletics, we thought we’d pose a question: which player is more valuable to his team on defense right now, Báez or Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman?
Defensive Runs Saved
By Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, Chapman has a 14-to-9 advantage. Chapman, who has the most Runs Saved for a third baseman, provides a value that Báez can’t. Chapman is the best in baseball at out conversion on balls hit down the third base line. Those balls are largely would-be doubles.
When Báez takes away a hit, it’s usually going to be a single, because he’s got an outfielder behind him who can get to the ball quickly.
Let’s add in individual value for shift defense, which isn’t factored in our basic Defensive Runs Saved, but can be computed using our internal data.
Of the Cubs’ Runs Saved in shifts, seven have come on plays Báez made. That bumps him to 16. But making the same calculation gives Chapman five runs.
The advantage narrows to 19-16, still in favor of Chapman.
Good Fielding Plays
Our Video Scouts chart every play of ever game, categorizing some plays as “Good Fielding Plays” and “Defensive Misplays & Errors.”
Good Fielding Plays are Web Gems – the diving, sliding or jumping catch that you’ll see in highlights, but also things like keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a baserunner from gaining an extra base, or preventing a single from being a double. There are approximately 30 categories from which to choose.
Defensive Misplays & Errors are errors, plus plays in which a fielder’s actions had a negative consequence. These include your basic bobbles and drops, but also cover other ground. Official scorers may not give an error if a fielder fails to convert on an attempted double play, since one can’t be assumed but Video Scouts can award a Misplay for an errant throw or a drop after the catch by the relay man. There are approximately 60 categories of these kinds of plays.
Chapman is having a phenomenal year when it comes to making the great plays and avoiding mistakes. He has 35 Good Fielding Plays and 14 Misplays & Errors.
Chapman’s 35 are the most in MLB by a non-first baseman (first basemen tend to record more than other positions because of scooped throws). That’s a big improvement over last season, when he finished with 41 Good Plays and 35 Misplays & Errors.
Báez has 21 Good Fielding Plays and 28 Misplays & Errors. He’s two shy of the most Good Plays at shortstop. He garners attention because his Good Plays are so good, like the one-of-a-kind tags he’s made that get shown repeatedly on TV and go viral on social media.
In Sum
It’s difficult to compare across positions. But we can tell you that Chapman is the top defensive third baseman in baseball by the numbers. Báez has won our Fielding Bible Award for multi-positional excellence three years running. He’ll be in for a tough fight at shortstop this season Nick Ahmed of the Diamondbacks has 20 Runs Saved plus he’s accounted for 16 of his team’s Runs Saved in shifts).
Perhaps this article should have been one comparing Ahmed and Chapman’s value too. We’ll save that for another time.
In the meantime, ponder where a very, very good shortstop rates compared to the top third baseman, and vote in our poll. We’re curious how people weigh the numbers in their consideration.
Polling our audience:
Which player is more valuable on defense?
Vote in our poll for your choice among the @Athletics 3B and the @Cubs SS
This week’s episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast highlights defensive excellence in the Bay Area.
Senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) points out how well Chad Pinder has played recently, with help from Oakland Athletics coach Ryan Christenson (1:04).
Then, Mark talks to San Francisco Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar (@KPILLAR4). They discuss the challenges of making sliding, diving, and jumping catches including dealing with injuries (3:00), how Pillar learned to play that way (5:13), what being the leader in those kinds of catches says about a player (10:00), learning a ballpark (11:02), how much he uses scouting information (13:24), and what advice he would give to kids who want to play defense like him (15:19).
Mark is then joined by research associate Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne) and intern Jon Becker (@jonbecker_). They review Pillar’s comments (18:29), discuss a pitcher who changed approach upon joining a new team (20:56), answer a listener question about the Mount Rushmore of stats (22:45), preview Andrew’s presentation at Saberseminar (24:07) and challenge listeners to figure out the Ridiculous Stats of the Day (25:21).
The San Diego Padres have known that Hunter Renfroe could hit for power since he made his big league debut in 2016. But after being known primarily as a home run hitter in the early part of his career, Renfroe is now known for something else: his defense.
Renfroe is the Sports Info Solutions Defensive Player of the Month for July. He edged out Oakland Athletics utility man Chad Pinder in a very close vote among SIS staff.
Renfroe is the second consecutive Padres player to win Defensive Player of the Month this season. Padres catcher Austin Hedges took the honor for June. Brewers outfielder Lorenzo Cain (March/April) and Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger (May) are the other winners this season.
Renfroe led all players with 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for the month. He saved eight runs in right field, four in left field and one in center field. No other player finished the month in double figures in Runs Saved.
As documented recently on the Sports Info Solutions blog, Renfroe has made significant defensive improvements this season. He’s saved 17 runs overall and recently overtook Bellinger for the lead for most DRS as an outfielder this season. Renfroe has been excellent at both catching balls and deterring baserunner advancement. His five Outfield Arm Runs Saved are one shy of Bellinger for the MLB lead.
“I want to win a Gold Glove more than I want to win a Silver Slugger,” Renfroe told The Athletic about a month ago. He’ll make an interesting candidate for our Fielding Bible Awards. His nine DRS in right field rank fourth behind Bellinger. His seven DRS in left field are one off the MLB lead. He could be a candidate for the Fielding Bible Award for best multi-position player.
So could Pinder, especially given how he played in July. He saved at least one run as a left fielder (3), right fielder (1), second baseman (1), and third baseman (1). Sports Info Solutions Video Scouts credited him with eight Good Fielding Plays, one shy of the most by a non-first baseman (first basemen tend to have the most due to scooped throws). He did this while committing only one Misplay or Error.
Pinder’s presence makes the Athletics a highly formidable defensive team along with first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman.
Left field is where Pinder fares best. He’s saved six runs in just over 200 innings there this season. But his ability to make plays at other spots adds considerably to his value.
For more on defensive excellence, check out the upcoming episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast (available Monday). San Francisco Giants center fielder Kevin Pillar talks about the challenges of making the diving, sliding, and jumping catch.
The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, and as is usually the case, it was pitching that dominated the headlines. Trevor Bauer went to the Cincinnati Reds, Shane Greene to the Atlanta Braves, and Zack Greinke to the Houston Astros. While there weren’t names quite as big or seasons quite as good acquired on the offensive side of things, there were still a small handful of meaningful position players acquired. Let’s take a look at some of them.
OF/DHFranmil Reyes, traded from San Diego Padres to Cleveland Indians
Reyes has been one of the most under-the-radar hitters in baseball this year, with a 34% hard-hit rate that puts him in the top 50 among the nearly 200 batters with 300-plus at-bats. His 27 home runs this year gives him 43 for his career in under 600 at-bats, though interestingly enough he’s hit only 18 doubles and driven in 77 runs. The righty swinger actually does most of his damage against same-sided pitching, with a 36% hard-hit rate against such pitchers (25% against southpaws) and 24 of his 27 round-trippers.
A big factor in the Padres’ willingness to trade Reyes was likely his poor defense, which our Sam Weber wrote about yesterday. He’ll probably spend most of his time in Cleveland as the designated hitter.
RF Nicholas Castellanos, traded from Detroit Tigers to Chicago Cubs
Despite this being the most homer-happy season in MLB history, Castellanos hasn’t quite gotten the memo, hitting just 11 home runs after clubbing 23 last year. He has hit 37 doubles, to lead MLB, only 9 off of his career-high with one-third of the season still to be played. The Cubs’ biggest offensive woes have come against lefties, and Castellanos will definitely help there. He’s hitting .347 this year when holding the platoon advantage, with four of his home runs and a 43% hard-hit rate. That hard-hit rate puts him just outside the top 10 of the 200+ hitters with at least 50 at-bats against lefties.
One thing that ought to worry the Cubs, though, is Castellanos’ defense; he’s improved, but has still been well below average, with a -6 DRS after -19 last year. The acquisition will also give Jason Heyward more time in center and less in right; Heyward’s fifth amongst right fielders with 9 DRS, but has cost the Cubs six runs when playing up the middle.
RF Yasiel Puig, traded from Reds to Indians
It’s been a weird season for Puig, who slashed just .218/.268/.391 through the end of May but was excellent in the next two months, batting .290/.340/.568. His hard-contact rate has improved a lot as well; it’s been 33% over the last two months after having a hard-hit ball in less than a quarter of his at-bats prior. Similarly to new teammate Reyes, he’s a bit of a reverse-splits hitter: his batting average is 14 points higher against lefties but his hard-hit rate is almost two percentage points higher against righties, against whom he’s hit 17 of his 22 home runs.
Puig, unlike the other two names above, is an above-average fielder, with 3 DRS in right field this year and four outfield assists, with runners taking the extra base on less than 50% of opportunities. Puig has 16 Good Fielding Plays, one shy of the MLB lead at the position. He does sometimes try to do too much — he has 13 Defensive Misplays & Errors — but that doesn’t offset his positives.
INF/OF Eric Sogard, traded from Toronto Blue Jays to Tampa Bay Rays
The most out-of-nowhere impact trade candidate on the market, Sogard parlayed a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays into an excellent .300/.363/.477 slashline, hitting 10 home runs in 330 plate appearances after slugging just 11 in over 1,700 career plate appearances prior. He hasn’t hit the ball particularly hard, with a hard-hit rate of just over 30%, but that still represents a career high. He’s also been excellent at using the whole field, pulling just 37% of batted balls and hitting 63% up the middle or to the left side.
The bespectacled Sogard has started games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field this year. He’s cost his teams four runs at second base, and has been +1 at the other positions.
The San Diego Padres have certainly been an interesting team to watch this season. Building around a young core that includes the likes of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Chris Paddack, Padres fans will have an entertaining and competent product on the field for years to come.
However, two outfielders the Padres had coming into the season began to outperform their expectations on the backs of their stellar power numbers – Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes. As the trade deadline approached, both names were floated around as potential pieces on the move. With Reyes now on his way to Cleveland, it became evident San Diego saw greater long-term potential in Renfroe, but with similar offensive production, why was this the case?
Renfroe and Reyes are similar hitters, Renfroe is currently sixth in the league in home runs with 29, and Reyes sits right behind him ranked No. 11 at 27. With a .563 slugging percentage, Renfroe currently ranks No. 14 in the league. Reyes is no slouch either, slugging at a .535 clip. Renfroe and Reyes each rank in the top 10 percent in isolated power at .324 and .280, respectively. Both are outpacing their past slugging numbers.
They both hit the ball pretty hard. Both rate well in metrics like average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage. Consistent solid contact and hitting for power made these guys strong offensive contributors for the Padres, with almost identical contributors based on wRC+ and wOBA.
Player
Avg. Exit Velocity
BIS Hard-Hit Rate
wRC+
wOBA
Hunter Renfroe
90.6
34%
116
.346
Franmil Reyes
92.3
34%
117
.348
Taking a bit of a closer look, however, we start to see where Renfroe separates himself. One element is the kinds of pitches he’s chosen to swing at that’s made him a better hitter. He’s made major strides hitting the pitches he’s supposed to hit. Here are his numbers from last year and this year for pitches in the middle third of the plate height-wise, where Renfroe is significantly more successful (in other words, pitches that are neither high nor low)
Year
BA
SLG
Swing Rate
2018
.256
.608
51%
2019
.323
.828
63%
Renfroe has also added to his value by turning himself into a very good defender this season. He ranks tied for second among leftfielders with 7 Defensive Runs Saved and is also tied for third among rightfielders with 11 DRS.
His defensive improvements come from a combination of everything – turning more balls into outs and his improved ability to throw runners out. He’s had more plays like this full-extension diving catch against Alex Verdugo (we call these “Good Fielding Plays) and this throw to nail Stephen Vogt of the Giants at second base..
Here’s some of his DRS numbers in left field from the past two years. He’s seen more playing time there than in right recently.
Year
Throws
GFP/DME
Total
2018
0
-1
2
2019
3
1
7
Like Renfroe has done, I think the next step in Reyes’ game is going to be better pitch selection and improved defense. The past two seasons, he’s tallied -1 and -10 DRS, certainly not trending in the right direction. We’ve also seen him take a bit of a step back in terms of swinging at and chasing offspeed pitches – pitches you don’t necessarily want to swing at on a consistent basis.
2018:
Pitch Type
Swing Pct
Chase Rate
Curveball
43%
28%
Slider
48%
33%
Changeup
47%
34%
2019:
Pitch Type
Swing Pct
Chase Rate
Curveball
53%
39%
Slider
55%
38%
Changeup
50%
37%
This may be a reason why San Diego decided to part ways with Reyes instead of Renfroe at the deadline. With similar power numbers, Renfroe’s defense and plate discipline set him apart and is possibly why he’s still in a Padres uniform today.
There are 18 players with at least 10 Defensive Runs Saved this season. Of those 18, the one who has played the fewest innings is Yankees rightfielder Aaron Judge, who has saved 10 runs in 375 innings (45 games).
Judge has the same number of Runs Saved at that position as three-time Fielding Bible Award winner Mookie Betts in fewer than half as many innings played. So how did Judge amass so many Runs Saved so quickly?
Half of Judge’s runs have come from Range & Positioning and Judge has earned his value there. Prior to getting hurt, his best plays were a diving catch on Niko Goodrum (on which our system gave him an 8% chance of recording an out) and a home run robbery against Jose Abreu.
His most valuable catch since returning is one in the gap to take a hit away from Daniel Murphy of the Rockies. Remember that some of the value in Judge’s DRS comes from being in the right spot at the right time, but he’s made enough solid plays for there to be a fair amount of merit in what he’s done in catching fly balls.
Judge has two DRS for plays related to this throwing arm, which isn’t unusual considering that he had two in 2017 and an MLB-leading eight in 2018. Judge has four unaided assists, which ranks third at the position. Those are of considerable value.
Erasing those runners also counts in Judge having allowed 15-of-36 runners to advance on hits he’s fielded, an above-average rate which gives him a little DRS boost (average advance rate is 50%). The last three seasons, Judge has the lowest baserunner advancement rate, 40 percent.
Judge is helped somewhat by playing in Yankee Stadium, in that it gives him opportunities that others might not get elsewhere. But if you’re wondering about his arm strength, just ask one of his victims, Max Stassi.
Judge’s assists and the home run robbery get additionally counted in his Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved. He gets an initial bump for making the play itself and then add-on value related to the run value in what he did.
SIS Video Scouts watch every game, categorizing Good Fielding Plays & Defensive Misplays and Errors. Good Plays include Web Gems as well as things like cutting the ball off in the gap to prevent a runner from advancing. Misplays and Errors include drops, muffs and bobbles, but also things like slipping and falling.
In all, Judge’s Nine Good Fielding Plays offset his Five Misplays & Errors considerably (hence why he recorded three Runs Saved). The best thing Judge has done is minimize his mistakes. Five Misplays & Errors in 375 innings is a good ratio. It comes out to 1.3 per 100 innings, which ranks sixth-best among the 30 players who have played right field the most (he’s essentially tied for fourth).
In sum, the evidence is there in favor of Judge’s performance in right field this season. It will be interesting to see come Fielding Bible and Gold Glove Awards time how he fares in the balloting, weighing his excellence against his time missed. In other words, how will the jury weigh in?
Most Defensive Runs Saved – RF
Innings
Cody Bellinger
15
747
Aaron Judge
10
375
Mookie Betts
10
785
Jason Heyward
8
522
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