By Mark Simon

With the regular season complete, let’s take a look at the MLB leaders in Defensive Runs Saved for 2019.

Indians catcher Roberto Pérez headlines the list. His 29 Runs Saved were the most of any player. Pérez ranked first in Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (staff handling), and second in both Strike Zone Runs Saved (pitch framing) and Good Fielding Play Runs Saved (pitch blocking).

Not surprisingly, the Athletics had the leader at both the corner infield spots. First baseman Matt Olson (14 Runs Saved) and third baseman Matt Chapman (18) each led at his position for the second straight season. In fact, all four infield spots featured repeat leaders. Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong (14) topped out there. Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed (19), who shared leader honors with Andrelton Simmons last season, was a solo leader this time around.

The outfield is a bit crowded. Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers tied for the lead in right field with each saving 19 runs. Judge’s total would likely have been higher were he not limited to 92 games there due to injuries. Bellinger might have finished with more had the Dodgers not moved him to first base and center field.

Nationals rookie Victor Robles saved 22 runs in center field, edging past Lorenzo Cain of the Brewers (20). Left field netted a three-way tie. Michael Brantley of the Astros, Mike Tauchman of the Yankees and David Peralta of the Diamondbacks each saved 10 runs.

Robles’ 24 Runs Saved (22 in center field, 2 in right field), were the most of any outfielder, two more than Bellinger (who saved 3 runs in center field) and Hunter Renfroe of the Padres (13 Runs Saved in right field, 7 in center field, 2 in left field).

Braves pitcher Max Fried rounds out the team as the leader there. Fried saved six runs. Among those he edged out were teammates Dallas Keuchel and Mike Soroka, who each had five.

The Dodgers finished as the leading team with 135 Runs Saved, aided by an MLB-best 47 Runs Saved from shifts. They finished with a positive Runs Saved total at every position except third base.

2019 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders

Position	Name	DRS
C	Roberto Pérez	29
1B	Matt Olson	14
2B	Kolten Wong	14
SS	Nick Ahmed	19
3B	Matt Chapman	18
LF (tie)	David Peralta	10
LF (tie)	Michael Brantley	10
LF (tie)	Mike Tauchman	10
CF	Victor Robles	22
RF (tie)	Aaron Judge	19
RF (tie)	Cody Bellinger	19
OF (Overall)	Victor Robles	24
P	Max Fried	6
Team	Dodgers	135

—

We also close out the season by choosing the top defender for September. That honor goes to to versatile Phillies rookie outfielder Adam Haseley.

Haseley saved 11 runs with his defense in September, the most of any player. He saved four runs apiece in center field and left field and also saved three runs in right field. His 13 Runs Saved this season were the most of any player who made his MLB debut in 2019 and were tied with Alex Verdugo of the Dodgers for second among rookies, trailing only Victor Robles (24).

Haseley’s signature play of the month was a home run robbery against Freddy Galvis of the Reds on Sept. 4. It was one of seven Good Fielding Plays by Haseley as tracked by Sports Info Solutions Video Scouts. That was the most of any outfielder.

Haseley was part of a Phillies outfield that showed huge improvement from 2018 to 2019. It went from costing the team 52 runs with its defense to saving 28 runs. The team’s Runs Saved total improved by 197 (from -146 to 51), the biggest year-to-year turnaround since Runs Saved began being tracked in 2003.

Defensive Players of the Month

Month	Player	Team, Pos
March/April	Lorenzo Cain	Brewers CF
May	Cody Bellinger	Dodgers OF-1B
June	Austin Hedges	Padres C
July	Hunter Renfroe	Padres OF
August	Javier Báez	Cubs SS
September	Adam Haseley	Phillies OF

For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.

By Mark Simon

Which player has had the best season in baseball this year?

That’s a very tough question to answer right now. Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers and Mike Trout of the Angels are basically neck-and-neck in Sports Info Solutions’ measuring stick, the Total Runs leaderboard.

Total Runs is the sum of a player’s Runs Created (using Bill James’ formula), Defensive Runs Saved, and Baserunning Runs, along with a positional adjustment. The positional adjustment rewards a player for his playing time at a tougher position (for example, it’s harder to be an average shortstop than an average first baseman). For pitchers, Pitching Runs Created are included to account for how much a pitcher has limited opponent scoring.

Trout has 122 Runs Created, one run better than Christian Yelich and six better than Bellinger. Trout’s edge over Bellinger stems from his big advantage in reaching base (.436 on-base percentage to .409). He also has a six-point edge in slugging percentage (.651 to .645).

Trout is also eight Baserunning Runs better than Bellinger. He’s credited with six to Bellinger’s negative-two. Trout ranks first in Bill James’ Baserunning Gain stat (+25), which measures how often a runner takes an extra base on hits, wild pitches, and the like, while avoiding outs on the bases.

Bellinger is hurt by below-average stolen base efficiency. He’s stolen 11-of-16 after stealing 14-of-15 a year ago. He’s also dinged for going second-to-home on a single only six times in 17 opportunities (a 35% rate — the MLB average is about 60%). Trout has scored 12 times from second on 16 singles (75%).

Summing batting and baserunning gives Trout 128 runs and Bellinger 114 runs.

Where Bellinger makes up the ground is on defense. His 23 Defensive Runs Saved are tied for most in the majors. Bellinger has taken to right field well in his first full-time season there. He has an MLB-best 19 Runs Saved there, with a combination of outstanding catches and assists (this one and this one are among the best). He also has three Runs Saved in 26 games at first base.

Trout has saved two runs with his defense, down from eight in 2018. He’s been hindered by 15 Defensive Misplays & Errors as charted by our video scouts. That’s up from seven in 2018.

Now Bellinger has the advantage, 137 to 130, with only the positional adjustment left to be made.

Trout narrows the gap there. His adjustment is worth 20 runs. Bellinger’s is worth 15 runs.

That gives Bellinger 152 Total Runs and Trout 150 Total Runs. Wow, it’s close.

Here’s the current leaderboard. If you want to keep up to date with this race, follow along at Bill James Online by clicking here.

Total Runs Leaderboard
Player	Team	Total Runs
Cody Bellinger	Dodgers	152
Mike Trout	Angels	150
Trevor Story	Rockies	143
Ketel Marte	Diamondbacks	143
Ronald Acuna Jr.	Braves	138
Christian Yelich	Brewers	136
Justin Verlander	Astros	129
Marcus Semien	Athletics	129
Mookie Betts	Red Sox	129
Alex Bregman	Astros	129

By Mark Simon

Max Scherzer is returning to the Washington Nationals
rotation on Thursday after missing nearly a month with a rhomboid muscle
strain. This is just in time both for the Nationals’ playoff push and for
Scherzer to try to regain his status as the top pitcher in Bill James’ World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings.

Scherzer, who had a 1.17 ERA in 10 starts prior to his injury, was the No. 1 starter in the rankings to begin the year. He had a small lead entering Wednesday, but Justin Verlander passed him with a great start in a loss to the Tigers.

Here is the current top 10.

Bill James World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings
Rank	Name	Team	Current Score
1	Justin Verlander	Astros	550.3
2	Max Scherzer	Nationals	547.4
3	Jacob deGrom	Mets	522.6
4	Gerrit Cole	Astros	516.9
5	Chris Sale	Red Sox	504.3
6	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	497.0
7	Zack Greinke	Astros	490.9
8	Aaron Nola	Phillies	487.5
9	Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	486.1
10	Patrick Corbin	Nationals	486.0

The rankings use a system devised by Bill James in which the primary
component is a pitcher’s Game Score in each game he starts. Daily updates to the rankings and a comprehensive explanation of the methodology can be found
here.

Verlander has survived 33 home runs against him to post a 2.77 ERA. He has 14 starts with a Game Score of 70 or higher. No one else has more than 10. He’s one of three Astros pitchers in the top 10. The Nationals also have three pitchers in the top 10.

Several pitchers have made big jumps to get into the top
20 (first number indicates ranking entering March 20):

Charlie Morton	(from 34 to 12)
Lance Lynn	(66 to 13)
Hyun-Jin Ryu	(79 to 17)
Sonny Gray	(65 to 16)
Luis Castillo	(52 to 18)
Walker Buehler	(49 to 15)

Charlie Morton’s ascent has come with a new team, as he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays this offseason. He’s used a dominant curveball to lead the AL with a 2.70 FIP and ranks second in the league with a 2.85 ERA.

Lance Lynn is also a free agent signing that paid off for the Rangers. He has a 2.84 ERA in his last 18 starts. Hyun-Jin Ryu has a major-league-leading 1.64 ERA. He’s the healthiest he’s been in a long time, has shown a dominant chanegeup, and will likely make his most starts in a season since he had 30 in 2013.

Sonny Gray had a rough time with the Yankees, but a trade to the Reds has done him good. His ERA is down nearly two full runs from 2018 to 2.92. His teammate, Luis Castillo, has also had a big drop in ERA thanks to one of the best changeups in baseball. Walker Buehler’s ERA is up from 2018, but he’s had two great starts to boost his score, a 16-strikeout complete game against the Rockies and a 15-strikeout complete game against the Padres.

The pitcher who has slipped the furthest out of the top 10 is Corey Kluber, who dropped from No. 5 to 30 after missing most of the season with a fractured forearm. He was getting close to returning from injury, but had a recent setback. Kluber and Chris Sale (currently No. 5) may continue to drop due to their injury-related inactivity.

For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.

 

By Mark Simon

The role of the starting pitcher in 2019 is a little different than it was 20, 10, or even five years ago. Pitchers are rarely asked to go long into games as deep bullpens allow managers to pursue the most favorable matchups at the end of games.

But the role of starting pitcher is still important. Aces are still a notable part of the game. But who are the best of the best?

The Bill James World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings attempt to answer that question. The rankings are based on the Game Score metric and a pitcher’s sustained excellence over a lengthy body of work. You can read more about the methodology here and here.

There is a tight race for the No. 1 spot with Nationals ace Max Scherzer trying to hold off former teammate Justin Verlander of the Astros. Scherzer has slipped with a couple of bad starts. His average Game Score is 57 this season. It was 66 in each of the previous two seasons. Verlander’s average Game Score is 63 thanks to a run of four straight starts in which he allowed one run.

Jacob deGrom, Chris Sale, and Trevor Bauer round out the top five, with Gerrit Cole just behind Bauer in the No. 6 spot. Zack Greinke may find his way into the top five soon. He’s currently No. 7, supported by a recent streak of three straight starts allowing one run or fewer.

Moving Up

The intrigue in this list is in pitchers who have made big jumps early in the season. These may be your future aces. The most notable of those is Reds starter Luis Castillo, who ended the 2018 regular season ranked No. 53, but now ranks 28th. Castillo has a 1.97 ERA in his first eight starts, including two starts with a Game Score of 75 or higher.

Castillo’s success has come because his changeup has been elite. His 52 percent miss rate (79 misses on 151 swings) is the highest of any starting pitcher who has thrown at least 100 changeups this season. Opponents are 8-for-79 (.101 batting average) in at-bats ending with a Castillo changeup.

Another big mover is Tigers starter Matthew Boyd, who ranked 58th at the end of the 2018 season but has jumped to 33rd. Six of his eight starts have had a Game Score of 60 or higher. He’s also the AL leader with a 2.30 FIP.

Boyd has two pitches that rate elite so far in 2019 – his fastball (.198 opponents’ batting average) and his slider (.176). That he can throw both for strikes has allowed him to maintain a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 6-to-1.

One last big mover is Rangers starter Mike Minor who has gone from 102nd at the end of the 2018 regular season to 53rd. Another good start on Thursday night might vault Minor into the top 50. Minor has had three highly-impressive starts this season – a three-hit shutout of the Angels, a 13-strikeout game against the Mariners, and eight scoreless innings versus the Blue Jays.

Minor is one out away from averaging seven innings in his first seven starts. His winning combination has been fastball-changeup. Opponents are hitting .185 against the former and .140 versus the latter.

It’s pitchers like Minor who show that having someone who can go deep into games is a major benefit.

Player	Team	Current Score
1. Max Scherzer	Nationals	525.9
2. Justin Verlander	Astros	525.2
3. Chris Sale	Red Sox	513.0
4. Jacob deGrom	Mets	512.0
5. Trevor Bauer	Indians	481.7
6. Gerrit Cole	Astros	480.3
7. Zack Greinke	Diamondbacks	478.1
8. Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	476.4
9. Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	472.7
10. Corey Kluber	Indians	471.5

The Bill James World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher rankings are updated daily here

By Mark Simon

Who were the overachievers and underachievers of the 2018 MLB season?

It’s a question to consider for those evaluating their teams and conducting their fantasy drafts. Though there are no guarantees that the numbers will even out and that the player will return to his expected norms, understanding who overachieved and underachieved provides context to a player’s past performance.

Our defense-independent batting statistics (DIBS) can give expected results on every ball in play for a hitter by comparing the ball’s trajectory, direction and velocity to other similar batted balls and assigning value based on those results. We can then compare those to his actual offensive numbers to determine if a player underachieved or overachieved.

In other words, these numbers can tell us if a player may have hit into hard luck, played in an unfriendly ballpark, or been the victim of some good defense. Or perhaps he hit into good luck, got a few ballpark-friendly hits, or took advantage of some poor defense.

Here’s a look back at several players from 2018, along with their projections for 2019.

Overachievers

Before the start of last season, Mookie Betts made the underachiever list. He was coming off a 2017 in which he hit .264/.344/.459 when the batted-ball profile was that of a .297 batting average and .886 OPS hitter. It was noted then “There’s not much reason for concern, and at 25 he should be an MVP-caliber player.”

Much that went against Betts in 2017 turned in his favor in 2018. He won AL MVP honors in 2018, though the data indicated his numbers were better than what they likely should have been.

Betts hit 32 home runs, six above expectations, and 47 doubles, nine above expectations. His 1.078 OPS was 133 points higher than expected, though even if it had just met expectations (.945), he still would have had a great season. The 133 points were the most above expectations for any player with at least 250 plate appearances in 2018.

Betts was joined by J.D. Martinez and Steve Pearce in having the biggest positive differential between expected OPS and actual OPS. Martinez’s OPS was boosted by hitting 43 home runs, 10 more than the data indicated he was expected to hit.

Betts’ 2019 projection: .303 BA, .923 OPS, 29 HR in 614 AB

Martinez’s 2019 projection: .294 BA, .929 OPS, 36 HR in 555 AB

Pearce’s 2019 projection: .262 BA, .806 OPS, 14 HR in 313 AB

The player with the highest OPS above expectations who wasn’t on the Red Sox was Carlos Gonzalez, who hit .276 with a .796 OPS last season. Gonzalez’s batting average and OPS were 41 and 105 points above his expected performance respectively. Gonzalez was likely helped by Coors Field, where he hit .315 with a .941 OPS compared to .241 and .663 on the road. He’ll move to less-friendly Progressive Field as a member of the Indians in 2019.

Gonzalez 2019 projection: .271 BA, .814 OPS, 24 HR in 542 AB

Giancarlo Stanton is the one other player whose 2018 OPS was at least 100 points above expectation. Yankee Stadium likely helped a bit here as Stanton’s 38 home runs were seven more than the batted-ball data suggested he would hit. He had never been more than three home runs above expectations in a season while with the Marlins.

Stanton 2019 projection: .260 BA, .887 OPS, 42 HR in 574 AB

Underachievers

Angels shortstop Zack Cozart hit .219 with a .658 OPS while dealing with injuries in 2018, not what the team had in mind when it signed him to a three-year deal last offseason. Cozart’s numbers were a bit out of whack given where he hit the ball and how hard he hit the ball.

His expected batting average and OPS were .287 and .819 respectively. The 161-point differential between his OPS and expected OPS was the biggest negative differential between those stats in MLB.

Cozart’s 2019 projection: .259 BA, .744 OPS, 13 HR in 421 AB

Dodgers center fielder A.J. Pollock is another player whose numbers should have looked a little better. His .800 OPS in 2018 was 106 points below what was expected from his batted balls. Pollock, who finished his tenure with the Diamondbacks in 2018, may have been hurt by Chase Field’s humidor, as the ballpark was not the hitter-friendly place for right-handed batters that it had been in the past. It will be interesting to see how Pollock performs with his new team, the Dodgers, in 2019. His projected OPS (noted below) is right in line with his 2018 OPS.

Pollock’s 2019 projection: .266 BA, .804 OPS, 19 HR in 466 AB

One of the top prospects last season was Marlins center fielder Lewis Brinson, who hit a disappointing .199 with a .577 OPS in just over 400 plate appearances. Brinson should have been something closer to an average player in 2018 as his batted balls merited more home runs (15 expected, 11 hit) and a higher BABIP (.322 expected, .257 overall).

Brinson’s expected batting average and OPS for 2018 were .242 and .697. He got off to a hot start this spring and it will be worth watching to note if there is any carryover into his 2019 season.

Brinson’s 2019 projection: .219 BA, .644 OPS, 13 HR in 398 AB

A reminder that you can purchase the updated 2019 Bill James Player Projections at this link