Tag: Cincinnati Reds

  • Are The Reds A Good Defensive Team?

    Are The Reds A Good Defensive Team?

    Photo: Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

    Part of a series of articles previewing the defensive performance of all 30 MLB teams by asking the question … are they good?

    To see the full series, click here.

    2024 Defensive Runs Saved Rank: 28th

    Team Strengths

    Matt McLain replaces defensively-challenged Jonathan India at second base, which should be an upgrade. In a small sample (37 games), McLain had 0 Runs Saved at second base, but in a little bit larger sample, he had 4 Runs Saved at shortstop.

    Despite -8 Runs Saved last season, Austin Hays’ defense in left field could be a strength now that he’s past a calf injury and kidney infection. From 2020 to 2023, Hays had 19 Runs Saved in the equivalent of about two full seasons in left field.

    Jose Trevino was added this offseason to improve the Reds backup catcher spot. His 45 Runs Saved over the last 4 seasons lead all catchers and he’s an excellent pitch framer. He should come into any game with a small lead entering the 8th or 9th inning given how much better he is defensively than anyone else the Reds have.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Catchers

    Last 4 Seasons

    Player Runs Saved
    Jose Trevino 45
    Alejandro Kirk 36
    Austin Hedges 36
    Patrick Bailey 33
    Gabriel Moreno 32
    Cal Raleigh 32

     Team Weaknesses

    The Reds need Tyler Stephenson’s bat, as his 2024 OPS as a catcher was more than  250 points higher than his backup, Luke Maile. But Stephenson could stand to improve behind the plate, where his -19 Runs Saved over the last two seasons ranked 3rd-worst among catchers. 

    Jeimer Candelario is penciled in at third base, where for his career he’s at -25 Runs Saved. Center field is another position where the numbers don’t look good. T.J. Friedl has -10 Runs Saved in the equivalent of about 1 1/2 seasons for his career.

    Other Things To Know

    We didn’t list Elly De La Cruz as a strength or a weakness. For those unfamiliar, De La Cruz is among the players on whom Defensive Runs Saved and MLB’s Fielding Run Value (an offshoot of Outs Above Average) differ most strongly.

    De La Cruz totaled -2 Runs Saved last season, as the stat recognized his excellence on plays in the 56 hole, but penalized him significantly for failing to make as many plays as expected on balls hit up the middle. He also didn’t rate well at turning double plays.

    At the moment, he’s a high-risk, high-reward defensive player who will make both great plays and frustrating mistakes. He has the skills to be quite good. Maybe this year his Runs Saved will show that.

    Are The Reds A Good Defensive Team?

    No, because the positives don’t offset the negatives and because they have one good starting defender at the four up-the-middle positions.

  • The Running Reds Are Even Better in 2024

    The Running Reds Are Even Better in 2024

    Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

    The Reds took great advantage of changes to MLB’s basestealing rules last season. They finished with 190 stolen bases, 24 more than the next-closest team.

    However, the Reds ranked only 14th in our Net Bases Gained baserunning stat, which measures the combination of stolen bases, success rate, and other baserunning elements, such as advancing an extra base on hits and doing other positive things on the bases.

    One reason why the Reds did not rank well in Net Bases Gained was that they ranked 25th in bases advanced on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, sacrifice flies, and defensive indifference.

    But in 2024, the Reds have ramped up their baserunning game. They enter Friday with an MLB-best 45 stolen bases in 24 games (Elly De La Cruz has an MLB-leading 15). But they also rank 3rd in the majors with 36 bases advanced on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc.

    They’ve gone from middle of the pack in that all-encompassing Net Bases Gained to No. 1.

    It’s easy to point to De La Cruz’s stolen base total or the 6 other players with at least 4 stolen bases as important. But there are 2 Reds who haven’t stolen a base this season who have also contributed to the team’s baserunning success.

    Catcher Tyler Stephenson, a decidedly negative baserunner last season, has already recorded 7 of those baserunning advances in 21 games. He tallied 10 in 142 games in all of 2023.

    Additionally, Stephenson has batted with a man on first and no outs or one out 17 times and not hit into a double play. He grounded into 16 double plays last season. As a team, the Reds have grounded into only 9 double plays, 2nd-fewest in MLB.

    Another player not known as a burner on the bases, designated hitter Nick Martini already has 5 bases advanced via wild pitch, passed ball, etc. He didn’t have any in the last 2 seasons he played in the majors (2021 and 2023).

    Shout-out to some of the other teams off to strong baserunning starts:

    The Orioles rank 2nd in Net Bases Gained with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg tied for 8th individually. They are a combined 9-for-9 basestealing this season. The Orioles are 20-for-21 in that department. The Royals rank 3rd with basestealing being the primary reason why. Kansas City ranks 2nd with 27 steals in 31 attempts.

    The Diamondbacks and Twins, who rank 4th and 5th in Net Bases Gained, respectively, have been better baserunning teams than basestealing teams. Arizona is the one team with more advances on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc than the Reds. It has 48. Corbin Carroll is tied for 3rd in Net Bases Gained so far in 2024. He was the runaway leader in 2023.

    The Twins are a weird case. They rank 5th in Net Bases Gained despite having an MLB-low 5 stolen bases this season. When they’ve had baserunners, they’ve done a good job of taking bases and avoiding outs. But getting baserunners to begin with is the bigger issue. The team has the 4th-lowest on-base percentage in MLB this season.

    Net Baserunning Gain Leaders

  • Stat of the Week: 2024’s NL Defensive Stories

    Stat of the Week: 2024’s NL Defensive Stories

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2024 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. Here’s our look at the National League teams after we did our tour through the American League last week.

    Braves – The Braves were generally average or better through much of their defensive lineup last season. The big exception was shortstop, where Orlando Arcia and Vaughn Grissom didn’t do well. Arcia had -6 Runs Saved last season due to poor range numbers. He is back for another go and looking to return to the form he showed in 2018 when he totaled 8 Runs Saved.

    Brewers – The Brewers ranked 2nd in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved last season but they’ve got some unknowns on this year’s roster with Jackson Chourio in right field and Joey Ortiz at third base. Last year’s Brewers rookies played very well (Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins) and the defensive success of this year’s team may hinge on their young players again.

    CardinalsNolan Arenado went from overwhelmingly awesome to decidedly average at third base overnight (from 20 Runs Saved in 2022 to 0 in 2023). So the big question this season is whether he can return to the standard-setting level of excellence of years past.

    Cubs – The Cubs have the best double play combination in baseball with shortstop Dansby Swanson and second baseman Nico Hoerner. Given that they also have two-time Gold Glove winner Ian Happ in left field, Mike Tauchman and Cody Bellinger in center field, with Bellinger likely also at first base, the Cubs could be pretty good defensively. They finished tied for 8th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and could better that.

    Diamondbacks – It’s reasonable to suggest that the Diamondbacks are the NL’s best defensive team. They finished 4th in Defensive Runs Saved last year and have very good defenders at catcher (Gabriel Moreno), first base (Christian Walker), and center field (Alek Thomas). Shortstop and third base may determine whether that suggestion becomes reality. Runs Saved has not viewed Geraldo Perdomo or Eugenio Suárez favorably, so those are the positions to watch entering 2024.

    Dodgers – The Dodgers have been a Top 10 team in Defensive Runs Saved in each of the last 8 seasons. They always seem to make the right moves and in 2024 they’re making a bold one by making Mookie Betts their everyday shortstop. Betts, who won the Fielding Bible Award last year for multi-position play, handled second base very well last season. The Dodgers do have some flexibility here. They could move Betts back to second and play one of the game’s best defensive shortstops, Miguel Rojas, if things don’t work out.

    Giants – In theory, the Giants should be a lot better defensively than they were last season. Their 3 weakest defensive positions by Runs Saved were shortstop, third base, and center field. They signed 2 standout infield defenders in Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed and signed Jung Hoo Lee, who led all KBO center fielders in Runs Saved last season. Those could be a boon to pitchers like Blake Snell and Logan Webb.

    Marlins – What can infield coach Jody Reed do for Tim Anderson? The new Marlins shortstop has totaled -22 Runs Saved the last 2 seasons, which ranks 2nd-worst at the position. Reed will do his best to maximize what Anderson can do. The Marlins ranked as one of the best-positioned infields in MLB last season.

    Mets – One year after signing Brandon Nimmo to a long-term contract, they’ve moved him from center field to left field and attempted to turn a defensive weakness into a strength by signing Harrison Bader as their new primary center fielder. Bader has twice totaled at least 15 Runs Saved in a season in center field. His 5 Runs Saved there the last 2 years are 16 more than Nimmo in that span.

    Nationals – The Nationals have finished 29th and 28th in Runs Saved the last 2 seasons and need a few things to happen in order to improve on that in 2024. One would be to see some improvement from catcher Keibert Ruiz. The Nationals ranked last in MLB in Runs Saved from their catchers. It would also behoove them to find playing time for minor league Gold Glove winner Trey Lipscomb, who can play any of the infield positions (read our interview with him here).

    Padres – Two things: One is whether Fernando Tatis Jr. can replicate his 2023 season, when he blew away everyone else at the position with 29 Runs Saved. Two, the position switch of Xander Bogaerts to second base so as to put their best infield defender, Ha-Seong Kim, at shortstop. Bogaerts has managed a positive Runs Saved total once in the last 10 years. Second base may be a better fit for him but time will tell.

    Phillies – Johan Rojas didn’t have a particularly good spring training with his bat but he’s arguably too valuable to even consider sitting. He’s by far the Phillies’ best defensive player. Rojas ranked 4th in Runs Saved among center fielders despite ranking 37th among them in innings played.

    Pirates – The Pirates ranked 28th in Defensive Runs Saved from their center fielders last season, but that could change significantly if Michael A. Taylor hits enough to stay in the lineup there. Taylor leads all center fielders in Runs Saved over the last 3 seasons.

    Reds – The Reds ranked 27th in Defensive Runs Saved last season. They’re running out most of the same players this season, save for Jeimer Candelario at third base, which could be a small improvement in Defensive Runs Saved. But they may be a bottom-10 team again.

    Rockies – The most watchable thing the Rockies have right now is their defense. They have Fielding Bible Award-caliber players at second base (Brendan Rodgers), shortstop (Ezequiel Tovar), third base (Ryan McMahon), and center field (Brenton Doyle), and a left fielder with a terrific arm (Nolan Jones). This will probably be the team with the biggest difference between the quality of its defense and its win-loss record.

  • Stat of the Week: NL Team Defensive Previews

    Stat of the Week: NL Team Defensive Previews

    BY MARK SIMON

    Continuing what we started last week with the AL, we’ve got a stat-driven defensive theme or story to watch for each NL team. Play ball!

    Braves – We’re curious to see what Michael Harris II’s defensive ceiling is. Harris has already won a Minor League Gold Glove and at times showed the potential to be the best defensive center fielder in MLB. His 8 Runs Saved tied for 4th-most. We wouldn’t be surprised if he led MLB in 2023.

    Brewers – Said manager Craig Counsell of rookie second baseman Brice Turang: “He showed us this camp that he is going to win games playing defense.” Counsell knows of what he speaks. His 30 Runs Saved at second base in 2005 are tied for the most by anyone at the position.

    Cardinals – The most intriguing thing to watch will be how Willson Contreras steps into the shoes of Yadier Molina as the team’s new catcher. Contreras’ throwing and blocking stats are typically top-notch but he’s historically a below-average pitch framer.

    Cubs – The Cubs seemed to prioritize defense in their offseason maneuvers. The team has the potential to be great up-the-middle, as new acquisitions Tucker Barnhart, Dansby Swanson, and Cody Bellinger all come with solid defensive pedigrees and Nico Hoerner’s move from shortstop to second base should be seamless.

    Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks will start perhaps the fastest outfield in the game with Corbin Carroll in left field, Alek Thomas in center, and Jake McCarthy in right (all three rank Top-50 in 90-foot speed). If the Diamondbacks are going to contend for a playoff spot, they’re going to need these three to turn a lot of potential extra-base hits into outs.

    Dodgers 53% of ground balls and short line drives versus the Dodgers last season were hit against full infield shifts (those with three defenders on the pull side), the highest rate in MLB. In fact, the Dodgers led the majors in how often they full shifted in each of the last four seasons. They’ll have an adjustment to make to baseball’s new rules.

    Giants – For much of last season, the Giants defense was hard to watch. The team finished last in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved. But if they can play some combo of Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Bryce Johnson in the outfield, their outfield defense should be much improved from the -47 Runs Saved that it combined for last season.

    Marlins Can Jazz Chisholm make the transition from middle infield to center field without it being too costly defensively? We love Chisholm the athlete, but we’re a little skeptical based on past history of others trying to make the move (which we wrote about).

    Mets – As good as the Mets were last season, they had a defensive weakness. They ranked 26th in turning groundballs and bunts into outs. Francisco Lindor has said he doesn’t like shifts. He had -11 Runs Saved in them last season. He’ll get a chance to play straight-up a lot more in 2023.

    Nationals – The Nationals set a 20-year MLB low for Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop last season (-34). But they looked a lot better once they put C.J. Abrams there and moved Luis Garcia to second base. They’ll get a chance to grow together for a full season in 2023.

    Padres – Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to find a spot somewhere and for now that looks like it will be right field. We know from Tatis’ history at shortstop that he has great arm strength but has a hard time throwing accurately. The Padres and their fans will find out how Tatis acclimates to his new spot together.

    Phillies – Only three teams finished worse in Defensive Runs Saved by their shortstops than the Phillies did last season. They signed Trea Turner for $300 million for his bat and his speed, but watch how his glove should help too. The last two seasons, he’s played exactly average defense at shortstop, which would be a considerable step up for the Phillies.

    Pirates – Oneil Cruz can get outs that other shortstops can’t get because of his arm strength (per Statcast, his throws average nearly 94 MPH – no other shortstop exceeds 90). He just needs to limit his mistakes. On a per-inning basis, he made a lot (4.3 Defensive Misplays & Errors per 100 innings, the 6th-highest rate at the position).

    Reds – With Aristides Aquino now playing in Japan, the Reds are lacking for interesting defensive players, as the ones to watch are in the minors (top prospects Elly De La Cruz and Cam Collier). For now, the attempted bounceback of second baseman Jonathan India (-14 Runs Saved last season) serves as one notable story.

    Rockies – Top prospect Ezequiel Tovar will be the starting shortstop. The position was a problematic one for the Rockies last season (-12 Runs Saved), but the future looks bright. Tovar played close to average shortstop in the minors per our data and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen gives Tovar a 60 future fielding grade on the 20-80 scouting scale.

  • An Oral History of Scott Rolen’s Defensive Excellence

    An Oral History of Scott Rolen’s Defensive Excellence

    As a hitter, Hall of Fame inductee Scott Rolen’s numbers are outstanding, but perhaps not distinct, comparable as they are to those posted by very good third basemen like Ken Boyer, Ron Cey, and David Wright. None of them is in or appears on his way to the Hall.

    What Rolen had that the others didn’t was defensive excellence, represented by eight Gold Glove Awards. Had Defensive Runs Saved been tracked for the first seven seasons of his career (DRS debuted in 2003, meaning Rolen played only 10 seasons with the metric in place), he’d likely be neck-and-neck for category leadership with Adrián Beltré (whose defense was DRS-measured across 16 of 21 active seasons).

    Both Runs Saved and its predecessor on Baseball-Reference, Total Zone Runs, elevate Rolen’s credentials. Rolen ranks tied for 17th in the offensive component of Wins Above Replacement for third basemen; his Defensive WAR ranks 6th. And it’s his defense in tandem with his offense (and his highly-praised baserunning) that made him a Hall of Famer.

    To better understand how Rolen played defense—dating all the way back to its beginnings—I reached out to those who experienced it first-hand and from close range to ask one overarching question:

    What was it like to watch Rolen save runs?

    (Teammate seasons with Rolen are listed in parentheses).

    Rolen’s defensive origin story began in Jasper, Indiana, a town of about 10,000 people. It’s where Rolen grew up and where he and his friends played baseball (and variations thereof) every day. Rolen and one friend kept track of the games in a notebook. He was the Dodgers of Steve Garvey and Pedro Guerrero. His friend Cory was the Cardinals of Jack Clark and Ozzie Smith.

    Cory Luebbehusen (Little League and Jasper High teammate, 1985-1992): “We always took a tennis racket and hit tennis balls over electric wires. We would hit pop flies to each other, whoever caught the most won. If I was down one or he was down one, we made it pretty darn hard for [the other person] to catch it. He was good at that game. Everything he touched, he was pretty good at.”

     At age 10, Rolen was playing with the 11- and 12-year olds. He pitched and Luebbehusen caught, and then they’d switch and Rolen would also play shortstop, which honed his arm.

    Andy Noblitt (Jasper High, 1991-1993): “We had a track meet where we had to throw a softball and he had the ability to throw it from our high school softball field all the way to the Little League field, which is probably 150, 160 yards, as a seventh-grader.”

    A growth spurt was a few years away. High school teammate Noblitt watched Scott rise from 5-9, 155 pounds as a sophomore to 6-3, 190 as a junior and transition from shortstop to third base.

    Noblitt: “I remember him making diving plays in the 5/6 hole that no one else would make. A lot of the guys would call him ‘Web’ because it felt like he had a Spider-Man web on him that could catch anything.”

    Luebbehusen: “You had coaches that would hit ground balls on a high school gym floor as hard as you could. That ball got on you quick. So if you weren’t ready to play defense, you were gonna take one in the chops.”

    Noblitt: “We were 32-2 and a majority of our team played a college sport, but he was just so much more skilled than our college-bound players.”

    Rolen was drafted in the second round by the Phillies, 46th overall in 1993. His first minor league roommate was another third baseman, Bryan Wiegandt, an undrafted infielder out of Bellarmine University (Kentucky) who was four years older than Rolen. Wiegandt says he was Rolen’s Crash Davis, the grizzled veteran who taught the kid how to pay rent and do laundry. They roomed together in the low minors and Rolen then roomed with Bryan’s older brother (another Scott) when he reached Triple-A.

    Bryan Wiegandt (Minor League IF, 1993-1994): “There were times we didn’t even need a shortstop. He was like a gazelle. One-hundred percent. Just smooth every step of the way. He ran first to third or second to home as quick as anybody. That carried over to his defense. If the batter hits one down the line, I’m thinking double off the bat and the next thing I know, the ball’s in my chest and I’m turning a double play. Or if the ball’s to his left, all of a sudden he’s playing shortstop and he’s flipping the ball to me within 1.2 seconds off the bat. He’s playing third and he’s on top of me, like, ‘Here’s the ball, are you going to throw it to first?’”

    Bronson Heflin and Scott Rolen got called up to the major leagues together and then both debuted on the same day, August 1, 1996. Rolen’s career spanned 17 seasons and more than 2,000 games, with his performance in his first full season earning him 1997 National League Rookie of the Year honors. Heflin allowed seven runs in three games in a seven-day period and was sent back to the minors; he pitched four more years in the minors but never another major league game.

    Bronson Heflin (Phillies org. P, 1994-1996): “The biggest play he ever made when I was pitching that I can remember was against the Braves’ Triple-A team. There was a swinging bunt, and I was crossed up. I was trying to get untangled to get back to pick the ball up and all I remember was this monster coming out of nowhere, throwing it while still running towards the catcher and throwing the guy out at first base.

    “It was just one of those plays where I was just like, ‘Wow, did that really happen?’”

    Todd Zeile was Scott Rolen’s first major league first baseman and an experienced third baseman in his own right. The 1996 Phillies were the third of Zeile’s 11 MLB teams. He had a lot of teammates, but few compared to Rolen defensively.

    Todd Zeile (Phillies 1B, 1996): “There’s a timing mechanism that good third basemen have [so] that they know how much time they have to deliver the ball to get the runner by a step. Scott, for as athletic as he was at third base, had that built-in clock. I had really struggled with that and made a lot of unforced errors. He would dive and sprawl and roll and come up and throw it from weird angles but he always seemed to have that clock that would give him just enough time to get his balance, make accurate throws, and not make unforced errors.”

    Mike Lieberthal (Phillies C, 1996-2002): “He was also amazing on the fly ball hit over his head, going down the left field line. He was very light on his feet for his size.”

    Desi Relaford (Phillies SS, 1996-2000): “He did this slide thing where he could slide on his knee or ass, a slide-scoop, know what I’m saying? Backhand. And he would either throw it from his knees or he’d pop up if he had time and show off the cannon. I saw that one a lot.”

    Zeile: “He was very good at throwing on the run, especially moving away from first base. He had arm strength when he needed it.”

    The impressions Rolen made early were echoed by impressions he’d continue to make as his career unfolded.

    David Eckstein (Cardinals SS, 2006-2007, Blue Jays, 2008): “The first movement to the ball was catlike. You know how you see a cat that’s sitting there, they see something and they explode to it?”

    Nelson Figueroa (Phillies P, 2001): “The thing about Rolen is he was so big but so agile. His reads were instantaneous, and he could cover so much ground. He had the range of a shortstop with the stopping power of a brick wall.”

    Paul Janish (Reds SS, 2009-2011): “You’re talking about a 6-4 or 6-5 guy that was probably pushing 240, like a really big individual, and he just made it look easy.”

    Jim Edmonds (Cardinals CF, 2002-2007): “Scott was like this solid wall of defense.”

    Lieberthal, twice a National League All-Star as a Phillie, said one of the first things he noticed about Rolen was that Rolen’s legs looked like they were three times the size of his average-sized legs. He was impressed by Rolen’s ability to get to balls so easily despite that size. So Lieberthal let Rolen know about one type of play that Scott could have to himself.

    Lieberthal: “I hated popups. So I would tell him, especially in [windy] San Francisco, and any place that had a large area behind home plate, ‘Scotty, you can have all the popups. I’m not dealing with it.’”

    Relaford: “When you have someone on your team who was as good as he was and being able to watch him every day, not only does he make your team better, but you can learn from that, and implement. Whether it’s the tenacity or getting good jumps. You can’t teach me 6-5, 230 pounds, but just being able to take it all in and see what he brings to the park from a mindset standpoint.”

    “He played the game like it was supposed to be played. He played hard. He ran hard. He threw hard.”

    Rolen moved to St. Louis when he was traded to the perennial contender Cardinals in 2002. It proved to be the definitive step in his career. In 2004 he had an MVP-caliber season, totaling 34 home runs, a 1.007 OPS, and 30 Defensive Runs Saved, the latter the most by a third baseman in the 20-year history of the stat, all en route to hitting the deciding home run against Astros pitcher Roger Clemens in Game 7 of the NLCS.

    Jeff Suppan was the winning pitcher in that Game 7. Suppan didn’t throw hard and relied on trickery and outsmarting hitters. Like Figueroa in Philadelphia, he relied on his third baseman.

    Jeff Suppan (Cardinals P, 2004-2006): “When I throw a changeup to a right-handed hitter, I’m trying to get him to hook it. But if he keeps it fair, it’s going to be a rocket. Or if I pitch inside to open up pitches away, if they make contact, they’re rockets to third base. So any time I pitched inside, I let him know. His backhand ability was off the charts. And I can’t remember, unless a ball was right down the line or way in the hole, a ball ever getting by him.”

    Figueroa: “When I was in hitters’ counts I used offspeed pitches a lot to take advantage of their aggressiveness. And if it was hit to my right on the ground, I knew it was an out. As sure as the hands were, his arm was just as reliable. He made the ordinary plays look ordinary, but the extraordinary plays look routine.”

    Suppan’s earned run average with the Cardinals was 3.95, markedly better than his 4.70 career ERA. Rolen and the Cardinals infield was integral to that.

    Still, even an eight-time Gold Glover isn’t impervious to imperfection. In Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, a Rolen throwing error set up an inning in which the Mets loaded the bases with one out in a tie game. Suppan escaped and the Cardinals won the pennant on Yadier Molina’s home run in the 9th inning.

    Suppan: “He thanked me after the game. He didn’t have to thank me. He had picked me up so many times.”

    Another player Rolen often picked up was shortstop David Eckstein, MVP of the 2006 World Series, in which Rolen batted .421 and claimed his only world championship.

    Eckstein: “When I signed with the Cardinals in 2006, Tony La Russa said to me that we don’t need you to play phenomenal defense. You just have to be able to get the ball hit to you, because you have a guy that’s going to be playing to your right that will make every play, and he’ll make you look like a better shortstop because of his range to his left. As everyone knows, my range on the backhand was subpar at best, but that’s what Scotty did. It took the pressure off of worrying about the balls that were difficult for me.”

    Janish: “He was a very talented individual, but he was just really good at doing the same thing over and over again.”

    Eckstein: “I always say he ‘ate’ the ball. And all of a sudden the ball was in his massive hands and he worked the ball through to first base. He had that first step where he was in front of you before you even knew it.”

    Abraham Núñez (Cardinals 2B/SS/3B, 2005): “It was amazing to see his preparation, his dedication. He showed up early to the field and every ground ball mattered. Every day, he took a round of live batting practice at third base, reading balls off the bat. He was gifted by his preparation in every aspect. It was something I never saw before from a superstar like that.”

    Edmonds: “He was just so far above as far as positioning and being ready and thinking everything through… knowing that so-and-so is going to throw a forkball in a situation or a slider, and that he needs to adjust his feet or move into a different spot. There were very few people you would hear talk about that stuff. He was one of them.”

    Edmonds won eight Gold Gloves, the same number Rolen did. So he knows defensive excellence quite well.

    Edmonds: “If you watched him take ground balls at 3 o’clock in the afternoon, he’d take ground balls in the same rhythm. He would get it into his glove, he would take a little jog step and then he would throw it. His rhythm was so perfect.”

    When Rolen was with the Cardinals, sometimes first baseman Eduardo Perez was warned of something Rolen liked to do to maintain the rhythm Edmonds cites.

    Eduardo Perez (Cardinals 1B/OF, 2002-2003): “I remember Tino Martinez telling me, ‘On a ground ball to third, don’t take your eye off the ball.’ I said, ‘What do you mean?’ Tino played far from first base. So did I. Rolen would sometimes throw the ball to first base without the first baseman being anywhere near there. So every time there was a ground ball to third, it was a sprint to get to first. I’m like, ‘Are you kidding me?’ And [Rolen] is cracking up.”

    Eckstein: “That was Scotty. He’s like, ‘I’m not changing who I am. I’m gonna field the ball and throw it straight to the base.’ The accuracy of the arm was very impressive.”

    Perez: “His throws looked like a true four-seamer from third to first. It continued to have carry and gravity wouldn’t defy his throws.”

    Edmonds, now a Cardinals broadcaster, said what separated Rolen from other third basemen was how relaxed he was and how in tune he was with his pitchers.

    Edmonds: “It’s weird when you watch the really good player, how uncanny it was to watch their calmness. That was the best thing about Scott. He never looked like there were any nerves.”

    If Rolen was instrumental in bringing down his own pitcher’s ERA, it would figure his defense would take a toll on more than a few opponents’ offensive stats.

    Moises Alou, whose career spanned 1990 to 2008, recorded more than 2,100 hits and a .303 career batting average. But he hit more balls that Rolen turned into outs than any other hitter (50, per the Elias Sports Bureau).

    Moises Alou: “He got me out on a lot of hard shots. I could’ve hit .305 instead of .303 [Alou laughs]. I was a dead pull hitter. Some balls that I hit could have been hits if it was another third baseman.”

    An elite hitter might find himself frustrated by Rolen, but if you were on the field in another role, such as umpire, you couldn’t help but be impressed.

    Dale Scott (MLB Umpire, 1986-2017) “If I was working second and didn’t have a decision to make, you could just watch the talent and the athleticism and sometimes the amazement of how he was able to get to the baseball and also get off a throw that was true, right to where he wanted it to go.”

    In January of 2008, Rolen, who’d missed significant time due to injuries two of his three previous seasons in St. Louis, was traded to Toronto, for whom he played a year-and-a-half. Travis Snider was a 20- and 21-year-old rookie on those Blue Jays teams, playing the corner outfield spots. Before Snider made his MLB debut, Rolen, who was hitting one spot in front of him, told him, “You only get one debut. So no matter whether you go 3-for-3 or strike out three times, enjoy every minute of it because you only get one.” Snider appreciated all the advice he got.

    Travis Snider (Blue Jays OF, 2008-2009): “I remember I made an error in left field one time. I was being pretty aggressive because we preached taking aggressive angles to make plays. Scott came over and said, ‘Hey, as long as you make mistakes aggressively, you’ll never have a problem with me.’ From hearing that, I was able to play with a little more freedom. It was great to hear it from a guy like Scott Rolen.”

    Snider surely enjoyed the clear view he had of third base from left field.

    Snider: “One of the unsung beauties of playing the outfield is getting to watch really good infielders make plays in front of you. Scott’s body had hit the ground probably thousands of times before I got a chance to play with him and you would never know it by the way he played, getting in the dirt, getting after it.”

    The Reds traded for Rolen in the middle of the 2009 season and he played the next three-and-a-half years for them before retiring. When Rolen was healthy, his defensive stats continued to reflect his reputation within the game. Janish, who regularly stood to Rolen’s left from 2009 to 2011, doesn’t want to use the term vanilla, but…

    Janish: “It was very much like [being] in a good position to field, like it wasn’t flashy. Could he make the barehanded play? Sure. But did he do it when he didn’t have to? No. He didn’t dress up a whole lot of it, He made as many plays easy as you could, if that makes sense. He didn’t make plays harder than they had to be.

    “He was more concerned with getting the guy out, which, that’s kind of who he is, right? It’s about the result, not about what it looks like.”

    To completely appreciate what Rolen brought to third base, you have to talk about the position with somebody who not only played it, but was compelled by circumstances to do so as Rolen’s teammate and replacement.

    Entering 2005, new Cardinals utility infielder Abraham Núñez had played 445 games in the field; only eight of them were at the hot corner. Núñez expected to fill in at the other infield spots, because after all, Rolen played every day. But then Rolen injured his shoulder in a collision in May, and Núñez filled in for five weeks. Rolen came back and played third base for a month, only to opt for season-ending shoulder surgery in July.

    The position became Núñez’s for the rest of the season. Fortunately for the career backup, he had once asked Rolen for some tips on playing third base… just in case he was ever needed there.

    Núñez: “At shortstop, it took me a little longer to get set up on defense because I had more time. So I asked him how you set up at third base. He says to me, ‘You don’t have time to make a big move. You’ve gotta be short and compact with a quick first step. I don’t want to be flatfooted. I want to be more on the balls of my feet when the ball is crossing the plate. I’m in sync with the pitcher so I can be on time for every ball.’

    “It made sense. It was hard for me. But it was easy for him.”

    Flash forward a couple of months to Núñez playing every day and holding the position down reasonably well and Rolen doing his rehab exercises to try to get back to health.

    Núñez: “I remember this like it happened today. He said, ‘Dude, you’re doing an outstanding job. I wanted to tell you face-to-face how good of a job you’re doing.’ That meant a lot coming from him. That’s a big memory.”

    Núñez has since worked in the Royals minor league system. He has used video of Rolen’s pre-pitch setup for instructional purposes, an indicator—along with the comments from his teammates—that Rolen’s Hall of Fame defensive legacy will be long-lasting.

  • Stat of the Week: August’s Defensive Player of the Month

    Stat of the Week: August’s Defensive Player of the Month

     

    This is not a misprint. Reds outfielder Aristides Aquino has 19 Defensive Runs Saved in 389 innings this season.

    Aquino tied for the MLB lead with 9 Runs Saved in August and won our voting for MLB Defensive Player of the Month for August.

    What differentiates Aquino, and helps him record so many Runs Saved in such a short period of time, is his throwing arm. People keep testing it. He has 10 outfield assists this season, all without the help of a cutoff man. Five of them have been on plays at the plate, including one against the Giants on May 28 that ended a one-run win.

    Aquino had 5 assists in August, including this one, which prompted an “oh wow!” from Phillies broadcaster John Kruk. Kruk had good reason for his exclamation. Statcast clocked the throw at 99 MPH.

    Aquino’s 8 Outfield Arm Runs Saved (a stat that considers both throw-outs and baserunners held) are the most in MLB this season.

    Aquino didn’t have any particularly dazzling catches this month, but the value of those he did make adds up. Among his better ones were this one against the Brewers and this one against the Phillies, which of course had an assist tacked on to it.

    Aquino’s 19 Runs Saved are tied for the most of any player at any position this season. He’s tied with Taylor Walls of the Rays, who has played more than 900 innings this season, and Tommy Edman of the Cardinals, who has played more than 1,000.

    Among those Aquino beat out for Player of the Month were shortstops Walls and Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Yankees, and catchers Adley Rutschman of the Orioles and Cal Raleigh of the Mariners.

    Walls led all shortstops with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (we wrote about him in another recent article). Kiner-Falefa totaled 7 Runs Saved in his best month of the season (albeit one that ended with an error that drew the ire of Yankees fans on Wednesday night).

    Rutschman led catchers with 7 Runs Saved in August. He’s tied for third in our pitch-framing metric (Strike Zone Runs Saved), fourth in catcher block rate (preventing wild pitches and passed balls) and his 12 Runs Saved this season trail only Jose Trevino’s 15 among catchers. This is made all the more impressive given that Rutschman didn’t make his MLB debut until May 21.

    Raleigh, in his second year, had 6 Runs Saved in August and has matched Rutschman’s 12 Runs Saved this season. He’s second in Strike Zone Runs Saved and tied for third in Stolen Bases Runs Saved.

  • What has happened when 4-man outfields were used this season?

    By NICHOLAS BEHRENDT

    Stats through April 29

    Sports Info Solutions began tracking the four-man outfield shift in 2018, but the result was only 37 balls in play against it for the season. It gained some attention in Spring Training this year, and Andrew Kyne wrote about candidates for the unusual defensive approach. Now the 2019 MLB season is more than a month old, so let’s look at the status of the four-an outfield so far.

    Batters have already put a ball in play against a four-man outfield 34 times this season despite it being used by only three teams, down from five last year. The Minnesota Twins, who led MLB with 27 four-man outfield uses in 2018, have yet to show it against a ball in play this season. The Cincinnati Reds, on the other hand, have gone from using it zero times in 2018 to leading the majors with 22 usages versus balls in play this season.

    What’s most interesting between these two teams is the difference in their overall shift tendencies. The Twins were among the league leaders in defensive shifts used in 2018 with 1,723, presumably making them more willing to experiment with different alignments. Three of the top four teams to use the four-man outfield last year ranked first, third, and fourth in total defensive shifts.

    The Reds, however, don’t follow this pattern. They ranked 18th in defensive shifts with 1075 in 2018. This year, they are on pace to increase shift usage by only about nine percent and rank 19th among teams. It doesn’t appear that this more aggressive approach from the Reds has influenced a major increase in overall shift usage.

    The Tampa Bay Rays (11) and San Francisco Giants (1) are the other teams to deploy the four-man outfield this season. The Rays are the only team to use the shift in both 2018 and 2019, showing it twice last season. Like the Reds, an increase in four-man outfield usage has not correlated with a more aggressive overall shift increase for the Rays. They are on pace for about 300 fewer defensive shifts after leading MLB in 2018.

    The four-man outfield has become more common in the first month of the 2019 season, but how is it fairing against batters? It’s difficult to assess something that is still used so infrequently and by so few teams, but let’s look at the numbers anyway. Last year, batters posted a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of just .189, well below the league average of .296. This season, batters have had much greater success, posting a BABIP of .441, well above the league average of .293.

    Of course, there are many factors that determine the result of a ball in play. Perhaps the best way to assess the four-man outfield shift is to watch every ball in play against it. Luckily, that’s easy to do when it’s only happened 34 times. Here are some of the balls in play that I found to be most notably affected, all against the Reds:

    Yasmani Grandal, April 1

    Max Muncy, April 16

    Freddie Freeman, April 24

    Matt Carpenter, April 26

    The four-man outfield allows the defense to cover more open space in the outfield. With an extra player, the defense can position itself closer to both the left field and right field line without sacrificing open space in the middle of the field. That doesn’t just increase the chance of turning fly balls and line drives into outs, but also holding runners to fewer bases on any ball hit into the outfield. The Reds have taken advantage.

    Yasmani Grandal, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Carpenter have all placed line drives down the right field line against the Reds this season. All three resulted in a single for the batter. The well positioned right fielder (second baseman against Freeman) was able to cut the ball off and keep the batter out of scoring position. A win for the defense.

    The result isn’t always so favorable. When a team uses the four-man outfield it must decide where to leave a gap in the infield. This isn’t always a problem as the batter is usually a heavy pull hitter and would attract a full Ted Williams shift (three infielders to the pull side of second base) in a typical situation.

    This is true of Max Muncy of the Dodgers. He has pulled over 90 percent of ground balls and short line drives to the right of second base this season and has seen 149 full Ted shifts on balls in play since the beginning of 2018, including seven by the Reds.

    However, when the Reds elected to play four outfielders against him on April 16 with a runner on base, they were forced to keep their third baseman within a reasonable distance of third base and only two infielders on the pull side. A ground ball up the middle went for a single where the shortstop likely would have been playing with a full Ted Williams shift. A win for the offense.

    Any team that elects to use defensive shifts of any kind is going to see both positive and negative consequences. But with a more unusual shift like the four-man outfield, there are new consequences that teams must consider before positioning its players.

    It will be interesting to see if the Reds keep up this pace for the remainder of the season, and if any other teams will begin to experiment with the four-man outfield. As I mentioned earlier, the Twins haven’t deployed the shift after leading MLB last season. However, players they used it on last season have had only 15 at-bats against them this season, so maybe they just haven’t found it necessary yet.

    With nearly five months remaining in the 2019 MLB season, we’ll just have to wait and see.