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  • On Derek Carr and Creating a Quarterback Ranking System

    On Derek Carr and Creating a Quarterback Ranking System

    Right before the NFL season began, we put out a tweet with a link to our “World’s No. 1 QB Rankings.”

    Patrick Mahomes was No. 1. Josh Allen was No. 2.

    And Derek Carr was No. 3.

    This looks smarter now, thanks to Carr’s unusually great start.  We’re not here to take a victory lap though.

    At the time we sent the tweet, the Twitterverse didn’t like it, and understandably so. We heard from a bunch of members of the “Delete Your Account” club.

    One of the issues with the tweet is that it didn’t offer anything in the way of context or explanation as to what the “World’s No. 1 QB Rankings” was other than to say it was “Based on 3-year statistical evaluation of all aspects of QB performance.”

    Another is that it didn’t offer any explanation as to why Carr ranked so high and how he could rate above Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott, among others.

    So let’s address both those things here.

    What is the World’s No. 1 QB Rankings?

     A bunch of years ago, Bill James created something called The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher Rankings. Bill wanted a way to rank starting pitchers and thought it would be the kind of thing that would catch on with the statistical populace and the general fan population.

    He calculated rankings with a multi-year system that utilized Game Score, a stat he devised to evaluate individual pitching performances, as its chief stat. The rankings ran on his website and The Bill James Handbook each year.

    A few years ago, our content lead, Mark Simon, asked the R&D team if it could build something similar for World’s No. 1 QB. Our now director of football analytics, Alex Vigderman, obliged.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period.

    The key to our calculation is Points Above Average (PAA), the statistical underpinning of Total Points, which is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking on the World’s No. 1 QB list. Prolonged inactivity due to injury or benching results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

    What’s up with Derek Carr ranking No. 3 overall?

    Imagine making a Top 10 quarterbacks list in which the following three factors were the most important:

    • Performance (most recent = most important)
    • Track record (same)
    • Playing time

    Most lists probably would have included the following eight names:

    Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, and Jared Goff

    Track record rules out C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy. Injuries take out Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Kirk Cousins. You could make a case for Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence, but we’ll leave them off for now.

    Carr belongs in that Top 10 list too.

    He ranked 9th in Total Points in 2021, 11th in 2022 (when he missed two games), and 7th in 2023. He shows up to work every week and puts in solid, albeit unspectacular efforts.

    If we’d had Carr 10th, you wouldn’t have batted an eye. It wouldn’t be an outlandish statement.

    If we’d had him 8th, you would have said eh, ok, and moved on.

    If we’d had him 6th, you would have given us the raised eyebrow.

    But 3rd … geez.

    So let’s recollect about a prominent chunk of the 2023 season.

    Through Week 6, Carr ranked 9th in the World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings. Carr was … just there. Every week. Respectable, not superstarish. The Saints were a non-factor.

    We mentioned how Points Above Average was the key stat within the calculation.

    Here are the Points Above Average Rankings and Totals from Week 7 on

    1. Josh Allen 66
    2. Patrick Mahomes 60
    3. Jordan Love 50
    4. Derek Carr 41
    5. Lamar Jackson 38
    6. Matthew Stafford 25
    7. Justin Herbert 22
    8. Jalen Hurts 22
    9. Justin Fields 21
    10. Joe Burrow 21
    11. Dak Prescott 21
    12. Jared Goff 18

    Carr wasn’t just better than most quarterbacks in the final 12 weeks of the season. He was a lot better. A lot better than Stafford, Herbert, Hurts, Prescott, and Goff.

    What exactly does Carr do to merit this? One thing that’s important – his on-target percentage was a lot higher than his expected on-target percentage (based on factors such as length of pass and pressure).

    That’s wordy, so let’s simplify. Did you see the two on-the-money long throws he made on Sunday? He put those throws in just the right spot.

    He’s good at that.

    The other aspect of this is that the timing of his ‘bad’ was the best possible time per the stats. Half of his interceptions and sacks were on 3rd and 4th down with at least 6 yards to go. So the penalty for these wasn’t steep. On early downs, Carr did his job (heck, he ranked 2nd in passing EPA on early downs for the season).

    This was all there for everyone to see. But some things you just don’t notice. That’s what these stats are for.

    The thing you might notice on that PAA list is that Carr and Jackson were nearly equal. And entering Week 7, Jackson was 6th, three spots ahead of Carr in the World’s No.1 QB Rankings.

    Why was a 3-PAA edge enough for Carr to jump Jackson?

    This goes to how the World’s No. 1 QB system functions. The most recent body of work is most important.

    Obviously Jackson went on to win the MVP last year, so he had some good games on his ledger. In the five games leading up to Week 7, he had three PAA marks that were higher than any of Carr’s from that same time period,

    In the two playoff games at the end of his year, though, Jackson totaled 0.8 PAA and -0.7 PAA.

    That didn’t sit well with World’s No. 1 QB. For better or worse, the system does not consider strength of opponent nor that you are playing playoff games. So Jackson dropped. Is that fair? Maybe. Maybe not.

    That gets to a larger point. It’s very difficult to build a QB ranking system, especially one that is going to consider everything and please everyone. In fact, if there was such a system, it wouldn’t be worth making, because it wouldn’t tell you anything you didn’t already know.

    No one at SIS agrees entirely and blindly with what our metrics say. You can rate No. 3 in a statistical system  and not be the No. 3 quarterback by one’s opinion.

    But we feel strongly that our process is thorough and well-thought-out, and that there are important phenomena being captured that we wouldn’t otherwise note.

    It’s clear to us that Derek Carr is more consistently productive than most anyone gives him credit for, and not just because an offensive scheme is propping him up. And with a hot start to 2024, a scheme improvement might have unlocked a new level of appreciation for his ability.

  • Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Photo: Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    In Week 16, I hit with a Breece Hall, Cleveland Browns, Jake Browning combo. Last week was a rough one for the parlay, but you can’t win them all. We hit with Dak Prescott’s passing yardage total but missed on Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yardage totals. Williams finished 8 yards shy. Gibbs would have eclipsed his total if not for a penalty that negated a 35-yard run.

    Regardless, we’re 1-for-2 so far, so we’re off to a good start. Here are the 3 options that our models like this week as we hope our 3rd try is a charm.

    Underdog – Josh Allen Alternate Passing Yards, 275+ @ +185

    Our model projects Allen to throw for 271.2 yards on 37.4 attempts in Miami on Sunday night, both of which are the 2nd highest estimates this week. On the year, Allen’s 122.8 Passing Points Earned ranks 2nd in the NFL.

    Allen completed 84% of his passes while throwing for 320 yards against the Dolphins in Week 4. Miami will be without one of its top pass rushers this time around, as Bradley Chubb was lost last week to a season-ending knee injury. Chubb has the 20th-most Points Saved on pass rushes (23.5) of any defender league wide.

    Finding an underdog that gives me confidence this week was like finding a needle in a haystack. I would have preferred a different George Pickens yardage prop here (more on him below) with an even-money Josh Allen total below, but no other Pickens lines are currently available on DraftKings. 

    Even – George Pickens Receiving Yards, Over 50.5 @ -115

    Pickens has compiled 326 yards in the last 2 games as the favorite target with Mason Rudolph at the helm, reeling in 4-of-5 deep balls (passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield) aimed his way. 

    Our projection model has Pickens estimated to accrue 83 yards against the Ravens, good enough for the 2nd highest estimated total in the league, only 1.4 behind CeeDee Lamb. The 32.5 yard gap between his line and projection is also the largest such gap available on DraftKings for Week 18 (we specifically looked for an over here).

    And a heads-up that DraftKings published yardage props for Pickens after our article came out. An 80-yard prop is at +340 as of noon ET on Friday.

    Speaking of Rudolph, over the last 2 weeks he’s totaled the 3rd-most EPA. His projection of 286.2 yards is also our model’s highest estimated total for the week.

    With the Steelers only recently finding offensive success and fighting for their playoff lives, I expect them to rely heavily on the tools that have worked for them as of late.

    Heavy Favorite – Falcons @ Saints Alternate Total, Under 49.5 @ -302

    These teams combined for 39 points in a 25-14 Falcons victory in New Orleans. Our model indicates the price at Under 49.5 points should be -595, a gap that I expect to close significantly between now and kickoff on Sunday. 

    My main reasoning for this pick is that these are the teams with the 2 best pass coverage units in the NFL in terms of Total Points Per Play (as noted in our weekly look at matchups and mismatches). A high-scoring shootout is not likely.

    The current O/U for this matchup on DraftKings is set at 42, and I’ve teased this up to 49.5 to be my confidence pick this week. 

    Total Parlay Odds: 6.09-to-1

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:42 AM 1/4/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

     

  • Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Vikings No. 1 and the Eagles No. 2 because they were most confident in the Vikings being under their 8.5 win projection  and the Eagles being over their 10.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Vikings 8.5 (Under) 9. Panthers 7.5 (Over)
    2. Eagles 10.5 (Over) 10. 49ers 11.5 (Over)
    3. Giants 8.5 (Under) 11. Saints 9.5 (Over)
    4. Lions 9.5 (Over) 12. Rams 6.5 (Under)
    5. Bears 7.5 (Under) 13. Cardinals 4.5 (Under)
    6. Buccaneers 6.5 (Under) 14. Commanders 6.5 (Either*)
    7. Packers 7.5 (Under) 15. Cowboys 9.5 (Over**)
    8. Falcons 8.5 (Over) 16. Seahawks 8.5 (Avoid***)

    * Panel was split on which to take though model projected “Under”

    ** Computer model projected “Over” but all panelists disagreed

    *** Model projected “Under” but panelists agreed this is a tough team to project 

    Vikings – Under 8.5 wins (Model = 6 wins)  

    James: It’s pretty chalky considering what everyone thought of the Vikings at the end of last year and their line reflects the thought that their record last year was somewhat of a fluke. They were 19th in offensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive EPA per play and 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games.

    Alex: Their floor is high. Six wins might be on the lower end of their range of outcomes but we’d say that to repeat what they did last year would be within their range of outcomes, but at the very high end.

    Eagles – Over 10.5 (Model = 14.5)

    Bryce: Our model has them with a win total of 14.5, which is probably a little high but this is a really talented team. Ten and a half seems super low with all the talent on their roster. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL, especially if Jalen Hurts continues on his upward trajectory.

    Alex: The 10.5 is a reflection of a team that shows up and looks like a world beater for one season, so I buy the skepticism (of it only being 10.5). There’s a lot of theoretical uncertainty but the organization is pretty stable. It’s hard to think of ways they don’t get there with their roster.

    Giants – Under 8.5 (Model = 8)

    Alex: Our model has them just under 8 wins. It’s the same story as the Vikings. The Giants were all about running it back. Mostly, this is just a bet against Daniel Jones. He didn’t have the kind of improvement this past year that Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen had. We’re not talking about that level jump that some people might think of. They weren’t lucky the way the Vikings were lucky, but they’re due for the same level regression. 

    Lions – Over 9.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt: The model has them for 13 wins, which I’m trying to wrap my head around, but the over under set at 9.5 and I like the over.

    Bryce: I think that’s a very risky proposition. This isn’t a situation like the 49ers, where basically every spot on the roster is better than positional average, except quarterback. Jared Goff is probably a little bit better than a Brock Purdy, but we’ve done this song and dance before.

    Alex: I think Bryce is arguing that Jared Goff has within his range of outcomes to be good enough to lead a double-digit win team. But it might not be something that he would choose as his expectation.

    Bryce: Yeah, I also think within that range of outcomes, he could be a complete dumpster fire.

    Bears – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Matt: Their line is 7.5. That seems unbelievably high to me. Our model has them at 5.5. That sounds more accurate. Another easy pick.

    Alex: You’re out on Justin Fields, huh?

    Matt: I didn’t say that. I’m out on his team. I’m not out on him.

    James: Did this team do anything in the offseason to get better? Yeah, they got a DJ Moore, but I don’t know defensively. This team still isn’t great. I think it’s asking a lot for a four-win bump from what they were last year. 

    Buccaneers – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex: The division is not awesome, but I’m a little higher on the other teams in the NFC South. I think there’s a pretty high probability that the Bucs are the worst team in that division, and there’s enough range of outcomes for the other teams in the NFC South where a couple of them are actually kind of good that I think that’ll contribute a little bit. But it’s mostly just, like, the quarterback situation drops off a cliff and everybody else is just kind of a year older.

    Packers – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Bryce: Rodgers is obviously gone, but he’s so far gone. As great as he was, he was so far gone last year and we have no idea what Jordan Love is.

    The defense is weird because they have some really talented players at some really key positions, like Jaire Alexander and Rashawn Gary, but there’s a lot of holes in that defense in general. (They were) an eight-win team last year with Rodgers, and things don’t be seem to be getting better there.

    James: I think this is a team where you can absolutely look alt win totals. If you think that the drop off is a lot, then you can take an under 4.5, under 5.5 at a better number. If you think Love can take off, then bet higher than 9 wins. I think the extreme outcomes for this team are the better value.

    Falcons – Over 8.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: You have no idea what Desmond Ritter is. Defensively, though, this team’s putting some things together…. I kind of like the upside with this team, the division’s in flux, like the whole NFC is. Theme of the day.

    Matt: My concern is the defense. I think the defense is trash. I have concerns about their strength being at safety. I don’t really know how you build a defense that way. I think that they have weaknesses at corner, in pass rush, and in run defense. So it’s hard to say that I find them to be very strong in defense in any meaningful regard.

    Panthers – Over 7.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: I like the coaching staff that the Panthers brought in with Frank Reich and Josh McCown, and Ejiro Evero is a really good get…. I think bringing him in with having guys like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn coming back from injury, this Panthers defense – last year 20th in EPA per play on defense – it’s not great, but I think they’re certainly upside there with the new scheme that Evero brings in.

    Now obviously it’s not one of those rookie quarterback situations where you frankly just don’t know. But I think there’s a lot of good things in place that the Panthers could potentially get over this win total, especially with that division that they’re in.

    Alex: I wish I liked their offense better. I think trading out DJ Moore for Adam Thielen is not inspiring a lot of confidence.

    Bryce: I absolutely hate it. I’m not a believer in Bryce Young at all.

    49ers – Over 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Bryce: I don’t like betting on bad and or inconsistent quarterbacks, and the 49ers, I think, don’t even have their quarterback situation figured out this year, but that team is so talented. The defense is really, really good. Their offensive skill positions are really good.

    They won 13 games last year, Brock Purdy starting in five of them. I’m not sure how much the quarterback situation even matters at this point. With Kyle Shanahan, plus the division is not very good. I’ll take it over 11.5, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

    Saints – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Alex: Again, the NFC South has a lot of uncertainty…. I feel probably the best about them in the division.

    This is another team where I don’t expect them to win 12 games, but I think that they have decent quarterback play and pretty good skill position players.

    I’m responsible for Total Points, and Total Points loves Derek Carr. Ipso facto, I love Derek Carr. Also, “love” is a very strong word.

    Rams – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Matt: Aaron Donald represents one of the only bright spots remaining on their defense. I look at the Sonar Depth Chart that we have for them at The 33rd Team, and it’s really trash all around. The offensive line was garbage last year. I think the offensive line promises to be garbage again.

    They tried to trade Stafford because he’s a shell of himself and is no longer a healthy, functioning NFL quarterback. So, for a lot of reasons I want the under on the Rams.

    Bryce: I’m going to get you a shirt that says, “I am not scared of Aaron Donald.”

    Cardinals – Under 4.5 (Model = 4)

    Matt: Number one, pull up their depth chart. It is really, really ugly looking at a lot of positions. But even more so than that, I’m worried about this franchise.

    I think this franchise has already reached rock bottom and they’re in the phase over the next year where they can’t even begin to climb out of rock bottom. I think that the sort of malice that’s gone on in this franchise is on that level.

    Unlike the way that I like the over on the Texans wins because they don’t have to tank, I think this team is organizationally tanking this year. 

    Commanders – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Alex (under): The Commanders have a couple of guys on both sides of the ball. And their quarterback situation is not great. And the Commanders are in that same category as the Panthers. It’s just that they have less upside, in my opinion.

    I tend to lean towards whatever the quarterback situation is and kind of trust that. And so that’s why I’m on the low end for the Commanders.

    Bryce: I would feel a bit worse about taking the Commanders under if I had any confidence that they would name Jacoby Brissett the starter, because I think Brissett is actually somewhat capable, whereas I think Sam Howell will be a dumpster fire.

    James (over): I want to call out all of you Sam Howell haters, because I like the Commanders over this year. That defense last year was still 5th in EPA per play. And if they can do something with Taylor Heinicke the last three years and have a minimum 7 wins from each season, I like this team.

    I like the weapons that they have. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, both a solid 1-2 punch at receiver.

    Brian Robinson came into his own at the end of last year, as well. It’s a new day in Washington. It’s a new day, and I think they break through the 6.5 wins this year.

     Cowboys – Over 9.5 (Model = 8)

    Bryce: I am an outspoken believer in Dak Prescott. I think they have strengths elsewhere on the roster. I really like CeeDee Lamb. The offensive line is not as dominant as they were during the first couple of years of Dak’s career, but they’re still pretty good. I think they have some difference-makers on defense.

    Matt: I had a really hard time with them because that over/under was set at 9.5. And the model came out at just eight wins for them. So this was one of those situations where I was kind of a ‘stay away.’

    James: When our model was run, this win total was definitely the one that I disagreed with the most. I was really surprised that it came out that low on the Cowboys. 

    Seahawks – No bet at 8.5 (Model = 7)

    James: I’d kind of lean towards their over, mostly because of the fact that the NFC is garbage, and in terms of a staple, this is probably as close as it gets to a fringe, playoff, wildcard level team.

    In the NFC West, we’re pretty low on the Rams and the Cardinals. The 49ers have some question marks at quarterback. For the Seahawks, if somehow Geno Smith can turn into a Top 10 quarterback again, then they certainly have the weapons there. I think I can see ‘Hawks going over this win total.

    Matt: Playing the Rams a couple of times, playing the Cardinals a couple of times, if Geno can be as good as he was last year, certainly you would think that they hit it.

  • Prop Recommendations: Cowboys vs Saints

    Prop Recommendations: Cowboys vs Saints

    by STEVE SCHWARZ

    Here are three props that are statistically favorable tonight based on the analysis done by SISBets.com.

    In the interests of full disclosure, our picks are 11-16 this season but we believe over the long haul that our numbers provide accurate and worthwhile insights.

     

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    1) Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 receiving yards, -120.

    Elliott has been a large part of the Cowboys passing game of late, with six catches in each of the last two games. He cracked the 20-yard receiving mark in both games and in five of the last six contests. Based on SIS data, we expect Elliott to get 4.5 targets and catch 3.2 of them for 27.4 yards almost 50% more yards than needed to cover the over number.

     

    2) Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 receiving yards, -110.

    Starter Adam Trautman remains on the IR, which means Juwan Johnson should continue to get a majority of the tight end snaps. Johnson’s production has been inconsistent, but he’s averaging 12 yards per reception so likely only needs one catch to cover the 10.5-yard number.

    New starting quarterback Taysom Hill can hardly be worse than what we saw from Trevor Siemian on Thanksgiving Day. In fact, Hill produced three games last season where he threw for more than 230 yards in four starts. The change under center should help Johnson and we are projecting 2.9 targets, 1.9 receptions and 22.1 yards, more than double what is needed for the over.

     

    3) CeeDee Lamb, under 4.5 receptions, +120.

    It’s always a question mark when your receiver is likely to go head-to-head against Marshon Lattimore. Although he hasn’t been as good in 2021 as past seasons, Lattimore is still a tough customer for a receiver to take advantage of, particularly in front of a national television audience. SIS analysis sets Lamb’s totals with 5.7 targets and 3.7 receptions for 47.2 yards.

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, footbal, and basketballl data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Dallas at New Orleans

    Dak Prescott

    Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -230, under +170

    Over 0.5 INTs -105, under -130

    Over 24.5 completions -110, under -125

     

    Taysom Hill

    Over 209.5 yards -115, under -115

     

     

    TD Scorers

    Dallas –

    Ezekiel Elliott, -125

    CeeDee Lamb, +120

    Michael Gallup, +175

    Cedrick Wilson, +225

    Tony Pollard, +165

    Dalton Schultz, +180

    Amari Cooper, +180

    Dak Prescott, +450

     

    New Orleans –

    Alvin Kamara, +100

    Mark Ingram, +110

    Taysom Hill, +160

    Marquez Callaway, +220

    Tre’Quan Smith, +250

    Deonte Harris, +250

    Nick Vannett, +400

    Tony Jones, Jr., +650

    Ty Montgomery, +650

    Kenny Stills, +850

     

    Rushing Yards

    Dallas –

    Dak Prescott, over 8.5 yards -115, under -115

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tony Pollard, over 43.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    New Orleans –

    Taysom Hill, over 32.5 yards, -115, under -115

     

    Receptions

    Dallas –

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 2.5 receptions -170, under +125

    CeeDee Lamb, over 4.5 receptions -160, under +120

    Dalton Schultz, over 3.5 receptions -170, under +125

    Michael Gallup, over 3.5 receptions -140, under +105

    Tony Pollard, over 2.5 receptions +105, under -140

     

    Receiving Yards

    Dallas –

    Dalton Schultz, over 42.5 yards -115, under -115

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 yards -120, under -110

    Michael Gallup, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tony Pollard, over 16.5 yards -115, under -115

    Amari Cooper, over 47.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    New Orleans –

    Deonte Harris, over 33.5 yards -115, under -115

    Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 yards -110, under -120

    Marquez Callaway, over 30.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tre’Quan Smith, over 39.5 yards -115, under -115

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 8

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New York Giants @ Detroit Lions – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Giants travel to Detroit this week in a game that Daniel Jones needs to turn things around. Ball security must be a point of emphasis, as Jones cannot afford to keep turning the ball over at his current rate if the Giants want to be competitive for the rest of the season. Of course he is a rookie making rookie mistakes, but he must start sensing pressure in the pocket better and placing more emphasis on ball security when his internal quarterback clock ticks down

    Daniel Jones vs. Pressure

    AttemptsComp%Yds / AttTDs / INTsPassing Points Earned (Rank)
    7153.50%6.10 / 35 (20th)

     

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills – 10/7 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After they escaped with a victory against the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Dolphins, the Bills look to play to their competition yet again with the Eagles coming up. If the Bills want to have success this week, the focus should be for the offensive line to give Josh Allen time to pick apart the Eagles secondary. If the Bills offensive line can hold up against the Eagles front, Allen should be comfortable enough to start making the intermediate to deep throws that got him drafted so high in the 2018 NFL Draft

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Operations Associate:

    The biggest mismatch in this game will be John Brown vs. anybody the Eagles put out there to cover him. Expect a monster week against an Eagles secondary that has more holes in it than an afghan blanket.

    John Brown vs. Eagles Secondary (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    John Brown2713.815
    WR’s vs. Eagles8011.835

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    In spite of the possibility that Drew Brees starts in Week 8, it’s the health of other starters–Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith on offense, and Eli Apple on defense–that is the biggest question for the Saints as they host the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The loss of Cook could be big, as the Cardinals have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the entire league.

    Saints TE Depth vs. Cardinals Defense

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    Josh Hill167.64
    TE’s vs. Cardinals6310.125

     

    Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots – 10/27 4:25 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Once again the Patriots are coming off a dominating defensive performance, in which they forced five turnovers by Sam Darnold. Going into this week’s matchup against the Browns, look for safety Devin McCourty to continue his success. McCourty leads the NFL in interceptions (5) and has also been utilized in a variety of roles. Aside from his normal deep safety position, McCourty saw many snaps against the Jets where he lined up in the box, as well as a handful in the slot. The versatile McCourty, along with the rest of the stellar Patriots defense, will look to help keep the Patriots undefeated on Sunday.

    Devin McCourty’s Performance (2019)

    TargetsYds / TgtINT’sPass Defense Points Saved (Rank)
    122.5525 (1st)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs – 10/27 8:20 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    As the Packers head on the road for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs, look for much needed secondary help to be found in rookie safety, Darnell Savage Jr. Savage, who has missed the past couple games with an ankle injury, is back to full participation in practice. The Packers defense has allowed too many big plays in the passing game recently against the Lions and Raiders. Now that they are facing perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL, Savage should make a huge difference with his cross-field speed.

    Packers’ Safeties in Coverage (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtINTs + Pass DefensedPass Defense Points Saved
    Darnell Savage Jr.5037
    All Other Safeties1210.631

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 7

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Cyril Zackary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Raiders sit squarely in the AFC playoff picture at 3-2, but have a daunting test coming off a bye as they travel to Lambeau Field. Derek Carr ranks fifth among all quarterbacks with a Catchable Throw% of 81%, but his average throw depth sits at a lowly 5.6 yards. Jon Gruden is scheming to get the ball out of his hands quickly to put them in manageable down and distance situations. Stringing together long, methodical drives will be the recipe to knock off Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the road.

    Derek Carr vs Aaron Rodgers

    PlayerAvg Throw DepthCatchable Throw%

    Passing

    Total Points Earned

    Derek Carr5.681%31
    Aaron Rodgers7.475%45

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the probable returns of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram this week against Arizona, expect Daniel Jones to get back on track. Although Jones has faced stronger defenses the past three weeks, he’s also been without arguably the best weapon in the league in Barkley. The return of Barkley should elevate Jones’ game and make throws that haven’t been so easy the past three weeks much more manageable. The porous Arizona defense should help Jones return to his week 3 form as well.

    Daniel Jones Passing Performance by Week

    WeekCatchable Throw%Yds/AttIQRPassing Total Points Earned
    381%9.3112.87.2
    484%7.3680.7
    584%4.898.45.7
    671%5.243-8.1

     

    Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Coming up against the Dolphins this week, look for the Bills to finally find their groove on the offensive side of the ball. Meshing the Bills top 5 defense with a consistent offense should be the goal. And this could be the week the Bills finally find their offensive identity with the return of RB Devin Singletary and the recent emergence of WR Duke Williams who caught all of his targets in his first NFL game.

    How the Bills Top QB/RB/WR Trio Has Performed in 2019

    PlayerTotal Points EarnedPosition Rank
    QB Josh Allen034th
    RB Frank Gore1825th
    WR John Brown1116th

     

    New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears – 10/20 4:25 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Saints have held the football 33 minutes or more in each of the past three weeks, which has coincided with (relatively) dominant defensive efforts. As strong as the Bears’ defense has been, they are allowing a completion percentage of 70%, which is ranks 28th in the league. Look for Sean Payton to continue to emphasize a run-heavy and easy-completions-offense once again to maintain ball control in what figures to be another low-scoring matchup.

    Saints Top Targets (w/ Alvin Kamara out) on Short Passes (7 or Fewer Yards Downfield) Since Week 2

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiver RatingReceiving Total Points Earned
    Michael Thomas376.7121.48.6
    Jared Cook134.2110.6-0.7

     

    New England Patriots @ New York Jets – 10/21 8:15 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout on the Patriots:

    The storyline going into the Patriots Monday Night game against the Jets is who Tom Brady will throw the ball to. New England’s top three receivers, including Julian Edelman, are all less than 100%. Number four receiver Jakobi Meyers and punt returner Gunner Olszewski were forced into big roles at receiver for the majority of last week’s game. Look for the reliable James White to have a big game along with Edelman. The Patriots offense has been bailed out of games because of how well the defense has been playing. Brady will look to right the ship on offense by throwing the ball to his most reliable and trusted targets.

    Brady’s Most Reliable Weapons

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiving Total Points Earned
    Julian Edelman558.211.4
    James White395.77.4

    Zac Stempler, SIS Football Video Scout on the Jets:

    Sam Darnold is back and the Jets have erased that zero in the win column. The main thing to watch is if this offense can continue its momentum against, quite possibly, the stingiest defense in the league. Many thought Adam Gase’s offense would be built around quick passes.  However, with the return of Darnold, the offense was able to stretch the field with WR’s Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Look for this to continue in a tough battle against the undefeated Patriots. A valiant effort against their rival would go a long way for the confidence of the team moving forward.

    Sam Darnold vs. All Other Jets QB’s on Throws 15+ Yards Downfield

    PlayerAttCatchable Throw%Yds/AttPassing Total Points Earned
    Sam Darnold1457%17.13.7
    Other Jets QB’s1136%7.5-7.7

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 4

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Throughout the early portion of the season the Patriots have done their fair share of mixing and matching up front in the trenches. The Bills pass rush will need to continue their success this week against a team that has very few deficiencies, if any at all. Specifically key in on Marshall Newhouse’s performance this week, as he now he finds himself starting at LT for the Patriots. If the Bills want to have success this week look for them to exploit Newhouse with the pass rushing skills of Shaq Lawson, Jerry Hughes, and Lorenzo Alexander.

    Bills Top Pass Rushers (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%
    Jerry Hughes8313.3%
    Lorenzo Alexander4710.6%
    Shaq Lawson3810.5%

     

    Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Britton Mann, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The most important task for the Panthers offense this weekend is to establish the run game. Christian McCaffrey had a team high 153 rushing yards last weekend which helped open up the passing game for Allen. So far this year the Texans have given up an average of 108 rushing yards per game, which lands them as the 15th best run defense this year. With the Panthers starting their backup quarterback, they’ll need to lean on McCaffrey and his explosive running style in order to beat the Texans on Sunday.

    Christian McCaffrey vs. the Texans Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tackle%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Christian McCaffrey (Week 3)246.417%2.4
    RBs vs. Texans Defense485.225%4.9

     

    Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Sales Pinckney, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Early on, Matt Ryan ranks among the top 5 QB’s in Completions, Completion Percentage, Yards, and Passing TD’s. He also ranks first in interceptions out of all QBs. Several potential scoring drives have ended due to an interception, which has often led to points on the other end. This has served as a hindrance to the early season efforts of Julio Jones, who has caught 4 TD passes through the first three weeks. Avoiding turnovers will be key this week as the Falcons take on the Titans, who rank second in turnover margin, and third in interceptions, after three weeks.

    Matt Ryan’s Red Zone Performance by Year

     AttemptsINT%Points Earned (Passing Plays)
    2016961.0%17.3
    2017752.7%2.5
    2018771.3%8.3
    20191414.3%-2.9

     

    Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Cyril Zachary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Gareon Conley needs to get back on track for the Raiders to find a semblance of defensive success. Conley looked great last season, giving up 21 catches on 42 targets, while surrendering a league-low 59% deserved catch rate among defenders targeted over 20 times. This year, he’s given up 11 catches on 13 targets and is allowing the second-most yards per target of any corner that has seen at least 10 targets . With limited pass rushers and an injury-riddled linebacker unit, the Raiders will continue giving up points in bunches if Conley doesn’t find his 2018 form.

    Gareon Conley’s Performance 2018 vs. 2019

     TargetsDeserved Catch%Yds/TargetPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    20174256%9.59
    20181385%14.3-10.4

     

    Washington Redskins @ New York Giants – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Even though Saquon Barkley is gone for the foreseeable future, do not expect the playbook to shrink this week. Expect the opposite, actually. Daniel Jones’ debut should have created a lot of confidence for Pat Shurmur to really air it out in Barkley’s absence, especially against a typically stout Redskins front seven. Additionally, Josh Norman and the rest of the Redskins secondary has generally struggled to cover receivers so far this season, so depending on game flow, expect Shurmur to cut Jones loose this week.

    Daniel Jones (Week 3) vs Redskins Top 2 Cornerbacks (Weeks 1-3)

     AttCatchable%IQRPoints Earned (Passing Plays)
    Daniel Jones3681%112.87.4
         
     TargetsDeserved Catch%QBR AgainstPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    Josh Norman1987%119.9-4.5
    Quinton Dunbar11100%89.90.7

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints – 9/29 8:20 ET

    Cole Ratliff, SIS Operations Associate:

    As the Cowboys face a tough test vs the Saints this week, the key will be the defense stopping Alvin Kamara.  A key to help stop Kamara will be gap control across the line of scrimmage to prevent cutback lanes so Kamara has no opening to run through.

    Alvin Kamara vs. the Cowboys Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tkl%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Alvin Kamara425.031%4.5
    RB’s vs. Cowboys Defense (Weeks 1-3)415.017%1.7

    The Cowboys offense has been an equal balance through three games in both the run and pass game, including both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard each rushing for over 100 yards vs Miami.  A key to the Cowboys offensive success has been Dak Prescott and his improvement in getting the ball out of his hands quickly and distributing the ball to his playmakers.

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Playing a team with a mobile quarterback for the third time in four weeks means Marcus Davenport gets to show one more time how athletic and versatile he is. He’ll again be the key to keeping the quarterback (this time Dak Prescott) from making plays outside the pocket. And with the Cowboys being a heavy play action team he will have to be smart with when he aggressively pursues the quarterback and when he chooses to maintain his gap against the run.

    Marcus Davenport (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%Points Saved (Passing Plays)Points Saved (Rushing Plays)
    Marcus Davenport6512%2.51.4

     

  • SIS NFL Preview: Week 3 Teams to Watch

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS Datahub Pro.

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Bills:

    The Bills have already faced two franchises that are going through some rough rebuilds, and for a third week in a row, the same will ring true against the Bengals. Offensively the Bills will look to establish continuity in the backfield and in the trenches. It will be interesting to see how many snaps rookie RB Devin Singletary will get a week after injuring his hamstring and getting his first career touchdown. As for the offensive line, the Bengals have shown an efficient pass rush led by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Will the almost entirely revamped offensive line continue to execute sufficiently this week?

    Sales Pinckney, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Browns:

    In order for the Browns to win this week, they will need to control the flow of the game and keep the Rams’ dangerous offense off the field. Third-down efficiency will be key as the Browns look to extend drives, an area that Cleveland has struggled with through the first two weeks. The running game will also be key in the effort to control the clock, so look for a more balanced attack from the Browns offense. RB Nick Chubb is averaging 3.9 yards per rush through two weeks, but 5.5 yards when those rushes come off-tackle.

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Operations Associate, on the Eagles:

    Since his return from ACL and LCL surgery (Week 3 last season versus the Colts), the Carson Wentz-led Eagles are one of the worst in the NFL in first quarter offense. With Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert all unlikely to play, expect this trend to continue against an underrated Lions defense.

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Giants:

    Rookie QB Daniel Jones gets the Week 3 start, much sooner than most anticipated. Due to the lack of viable pass-catchers around him, expect to see a similar game script to the preseason; quick, one read throws and now, a healthy dose of Saquon Barkley. Jones exceeded expectations in the preseason, specifically through his accuracy and poise, which he’ll look to carry into this week.

    Bruce Shroeder, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Packers:

    After another strong showing from the Packers defense, we are starting to see a complete team around Aaron Rodgers. With that said, as fast as the Packers offense started last week, they have played only two consistent quarters this season. The Packers currently are ranked as the 27th best offense on 3rd downs, which can’t continue if their sights are set on postseason play. If the Packers defense continues to impress and Matt LaFleur and his quarterback find themselves on more of the same page schematically, this hot start should continue against a struggling Broncos team.

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Patriots:

    While the Patriots offense has been great so far this season, especially after the addition of WR Antonio Brown, the story so far this year has been the Patriots defense. Most will be drawn to bigger names such as Stephon Gilmore or Dont’a Hightower, but it’s the depth of the Patriots defensively that has led to their success. DT Adam Butler (2 sacks), rookie DE Chase Winovich (1.5 sacks), DE John Simon (1 sack), and rejuvenated LB Jamie Collins (0.5 sack, 2 INT, 1 TD) all had huge games against Miami and are just a few of the players that rotate through the lineup.

    Britton Mann, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Panthers:

    Newton’s performance hasn’t been stellar and definitely needs to improve if the Panthers want to contend for a playoff spot. His 56% completion percentage ranks him No. 30 out of the 32 eligible quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts this season. Injuries have played a part in his underwhelming performance so far this year, as he’s struggled to stay healthy, and may be replaced by Kyle Allen due to a foot injury. In order for this team to contend, they’ll need Newton to get healthy and elevate his game.

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Saints:

    All eyes will be on Teddy Bridgewater on Sunday in Seattle, as he replaces Drew Brees for the next few weeks. When he took over for the injured Brees on Sunday, he looked erratic and slow to process at times. But his receivers did him no favors, dropping a handful of passes. Look for Sean Payton to come up with some interesting wrinkles to complement Bridgewater’s strengths, including more deep shots.

  • SIS NFL preview: Saints at Rams

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS Datahub Pro. 

    New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams – 9/15 4:25 ET

    Justin Stine, SIS Operations Associate, on the Rams:

    The Rams offense put up 30 points in Week 1 despite Todd Gurley carrying the ball only 14 times and Jared Goff completing just 23 of his 39 pass attempts. Gurley had only three more carries than backup Malcolm Brown, so it will be interesting to see how the Rams use their star RB this week.

    The offense played a majority of its snaps in 11 personnel (76%) against the Panthers, and the Saints defense was vulnerable against passing plays out of 11 last season, ranking 30th in the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed. On the defensive side of the ball, Aaron Donald had an uncharacteristically quiet Week 1, registering just one tackle despite playing 55 of the 66 defensive snaps. The Rams will need him to be much more noticeable this week against Drew Brees. The team is relatively healthy as well, although three impact defensive players are listed on the early injury report in Eric Weddle (concussion), Clay Matthews (back) and Michael Brockers (shoulder). All three are expected to play this week, but losing any one of these players would be a blow against a potent Saints offense.

    Rams Expected Points Added (EPA) Per Play from 11 Personnel (2018 – 2019)

    Play TypeEPA Per PlayRank
    Designed Pass0.166th
    Designed Run0.151st

     

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout, on the Saints:

    To get to 2-0 for the first time since 2013, New Orleans needs to maintain a clean pocket against Aaron Donald and the Rams. The entire offensive line was outstanding against Houston, holding future Hall of Famer JJ Watt to a no-tackle, no-sack game, as Drew Brees was rarely pressured, and running lanes were aplenty.

    The defensive line however needs to up its game after allowing 7.8 yards per carry on the ground against the Texans. Getting starting defensive tackle David Onyemata back from a one-game suspension should help. And the improved depth ought to aid the Saints’ third down defense which gave up 53 percent of its’ attempts versus Houston. Lastly, the Saints produced a couple big plays on Monday night out of the Pistol formation (4 plays for 52 yards and a touchdown). We’ll see if they increase their usage of that formation.

    Pressure % vs Saints  Last Two Games (NFL Average = 35%)

    GameDropbacksPressure% Allowed
    2019 NFC Championship vs. Rams4326%
    2019 Week 1 vs. Texans4219%

     

  • Preview: NFC Championship – Rams vs. Saints

    By John Shirley

    Let’s take a brief look at some statistical notes and story lines ahead of the NFC Championship game between the Rams and Saints

    Lots of Motion and Play-Action, but not much Shotgun

    • The Rams’ offense ranks first in the use of jet motion, using it on 17 percent of their plays. The Saints also use jet motion quite a bit, using it on 6.5 percent of plays, which ranks fifth highest.
    • When the Rams are on offense get ready to see a lot of play-action. They use play-action on 32 percent of their dropbacks, which is the highest usage in the league. The Saints’ offense is on the other end of the spectrum as they only use play-action on 19 percent of their dropbacks, which ranks 26th.
    • While there will be a lot of play-action and motion in this game, there probably won’t be much use of shotgun. The Rams use shotgun the least of any team in the league at only 38 percent. The Saints, who use shotgun on only 49 percent, are also one of just four teams that use shotgun under 50 percent of the time.

    The Saints use of Michael Thomas

    • During the regular season Saints receiver Michael Thomas was responsible for 29 percent of his team’s targets. This was the second highest target share in the league next to DeAndre Hopkins’ 33 percent target share.
    • In the first meeting between the Saints and Rams, Thomas’ target share was an incredibly high 42 percent.
    • The Rams will need to contain Thomas this time around. It will help that they will have corner Aqib Talib this time.

    The Rams Running Game vs the Saints Defense:

    • The Rams running game has been impressive this year ranking third in yards per carry at 4.9 yards. They also ranked first in positive percentage (the percentage of running plays with a positive EPA) at 51 percent. This success continued into the playoffs last week as both CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley ran for over 100 yards.
    • The Rams will have a tough matchup this week when they face a Saints run defense. The Saints defense ranked second by only allowing 3.6 yards per carry. They only allowed 1.9 yards after contact per carry, which also ranked second best in the league.

    The Offensive Lines vs the Defensive Lines:

    • The Rams offensive line ranks fifth (6 percent) in blown block percentage, while the Saints offensive line ranks sixth (6.4 Percent). The Rams defense ranks fourth (11.3 percent) in forced blown block percentage, while the Saints defense ranks 11th (9.5 percent).
    • The Saints offense ranks second in percentage of pass plays with a pressure (hit, hurry, knockdown, or sack) allowed at 27 percent. The Rams offense ranks seventh, allowing a pressure on 30 percent of pass plays.
    • The Rams defense ranks second in pressure percentage, getting pressure on 40 percent of opponents pass plays. The Saints defense ranks sixth, getting pressure on 36 percent of opponents’ pass plays