Name: Jamie Arnold

College: Florida State University

Bio: L/L 6-1, 192 lbs.

DOB: 03/21/2004

Written by Brandon Tew

Analysis:

Jamie Arnold combines a funky cross-body delivery with unique release traits to create both horizontal and vertical approach angles that accentuate his shapes. Arnold possesses a plus sweeper, which he ends up zoning more than his fastballs, making him heavily dependent on the sweepy breaker in high-leverage situations. 

A team will work on helping Arnold develop better fastball control and command to pair with his outlier release traits, enabling him to effectively pitch to both right-handed and left-handed batters in the zone.

College Career:

The Tampa, Florida native pitched at Florida State University for three seasons, posting solid numbers in his freshman year and then achieving excellent results in his last two seasons. 

As one of the best pitchers in the ACC and also in the nation, Arnold put up high strikeout numbers with decent walk rates. He headlined the front of the Seminoles’ rotation on a title-contending team in 2024 and 2025.

Pitching Mechanics:

Out of the windup, Arnold starts with his glove just below chest height, around his stomach. He then smoothly moves the glove up to his face as he begins his rock backward.  

With good tempo and rhythm, Arnold will drop the glove below his belt as he steps to the right and slides from the middle to the end of the third base side of the rubber. Arnold, with this up-down-up movement to his glove, finishes with the glove beside his ear. 

His arm swing is long and fluid in the back as he brings both his throwing and glove arm down to knee height as he enters the footstrike phase of his delivery. His arm then flips up into a nice position as his foot hits the ground. He gets into extremely deep positions, and you can see the stretch and flexibility throughout his body, especially the scap retraction of his shoulder at foot plant, as his arm naturally floats into this position. 

This allows Arnold to unwind and uncoil energy throughout his body with a whippy yet low-effort delivery. The deep positions and extension also create outlier release characteristics for his pitches, as he throws from a slingshot sidearm slot with a low release height.

Arsenal

 4s: 92-96 mph avg, Specs: 12” IVB, 14” Arm-side

Arnold’s four-seam fastball is an odd runner shape that Arnold can throw with an almost rise ball perception at times from his low sidearm slot, with one of the flattest Vertical approach (VAA) angles not only in college but in all of baseball. Arnold can get the ball to carry up to the top shelf.

He targets down more often than not, and he doesn’t zone the pitch particularly well, with his natural miss being up and arm-side. His control and command of the pitch fluctuate at points in a given start due to a lot of moving parts in his delivery. Even if he targets away from a left-handed hitter, he still runs the ball back across the plate with big misses.

The most damage he gives up is on four-seamers in the middle of the zone and clear misses in locations where the ball doesn’t carry as much. 

The performance of the four-seam has backed up this season, especially from a whiff standpoint against left-handed hitters.  Still, there are some interesting aspects to not only his flat approach angle but also the runner aspect of this pitch from his slot. He doesn’t need a big vertical four-seam to get good results at the top of the zone. However, pushing locations more up while still keeping them competitive will be a massive key to success.

Command of the pitch will need to improve for Arnold to effectively attack hitters with a more balanced approach and a more strategic use of his fastball, even if he doesn’t increase its usage. Having better control and command will help the sweeper play even more effectively.

Sinker: 92-95 mph Specs: 6” IVB, 18” Arm-side

Arnold also throws a sinker that he trusts even more than the four-seam, and his natural feel for the pitch is higher. He has a greater willingness to throw the sinker to hitters on both sides of the plate, particularly to righties. Against lefties, he’s more glove-side with his catcher locations. 

He also zones the sinker more than his four-seam fastball and will be aggressive with his locations before using the four-seam fastball upstairs to try and put away batters.

Both fastballs return good results in terms of ground balls, and the shapes cause hitters to beat the ball into the dirt. Continued ground ball success will be huge, and improved command will help Arnold get to a plus sinker and four-seam in pro ball.

Sweeper: 83-87 mph Specs: -1” IVB, 12” Sweep

The sweeper is a dominant plus pitch and is possibly the best breaking ball in the entire draft class. The angles Arnold creates, especially against left-handed hitters, make the pitch a frightening offering for hitters.

The tunnel he creates with his fastball-slider combo is nasty, and when he can dot glove-side fastballs away from a left-handed hitter, he can just embarrass hitters with the sweeper working out of that same tunnel. He targets down and away from lefties as much as he can.

There are certain at-bats in games where you can just get out the broom because Arnold’s sweeper is about to make the hitter walk back to the dugout. His feel for the pitch is also impressive, as he zones the big shape at a very good rate. He will lean on the pitch in high-leverage situations. With the bases loaded and a full count; he will bend in a sweeper.

Arnold also threw the pitch a lot versus opposite-handed hitters, and he can still bury the pitch backfoot against right-handed hitters and create swing-and-miss as well as ground balls. He can manipulate the tilt of the pitch depending on if he wants to zone the pitch or throw it for more chase to either handedness.

Changeup: 84-87 mph  Specs: -5” IVB 7” Arm-side

Arnold throws a kick change now with wacky movement as he creates significant drops and decent arm-side movement. With the use of a middle finger spike, Arnold “kicks” the axis of the pitch down while killing the spin of the pitch, having it dive like a pseudo-splitter toward the dirt. 

He threw a straight changeup in 2024, which was firmer at 88-89 mph. The pitch looked like a change of pace pitch rather than having a good movement profile to create a swing and miss.

The real crux of the new kick change is whether he can zone it enough to be competitive with the pitch in pro ball or at least have the pitch start more in the zone and fall out of the zone, rather than spiking the pitch in front of the plate or having it spin high and arm side.

The kick change is an odd shape, so it could work if he’s able to enhance his feel of the pitch, and it’s good to note he still hasn’t thrown it that much yet. His sweeper is so good that if he can find an above-average offspeed in the kick change, it should help him against opposite-handed batters. He won’t have to rely on his sweeper against opposite-handed batters as much.

Cutter: 86-88 mph  Specs: 5” IVB 0” Horizontal

Arnold threw an occasional cutter or short slider in 2025, something he was trying to add to his arsenal to play off the big sweeper shape and protect his four-seam, acting as a bridge pitch in the diagonal line on a pitch plot. 

He uses the pitch to get more vert and throw it up and in on the hands of right-handed batters to keep them from diving over the plate on his fastball and changeup. 

Arnold probably reworks this short slider and his kick change into more usable offerings, but if he can ultimately command the inner part of the plate against right-handed hitters with his fastball, he might not need as much of a retooling. But to expect that massive leap in command of the four-seam is hard to rely on.

Hiroya Miyagi, one of the best pitchers in Japan, has similar characteristics and a cross-fire delivery with less loud stuff. He has mastered the glove-side fastball by understanding the differences in direction toward the plate when throwing both arm-side and glove-side fastballs. This is something that probably requires patience in pro ball, to truly start dialing in glove-side fastballs and cutters to opposite-handed hitters.

Projection:

Arnold has a solid foundation as a rotation piece if he can zone his fastballs more effectively and play off his dirty sweeper. He has a floor as a nasty reliever but teams will dream on his funky release traits and shapes to try to mold a higher-upside mid-rotation starter. 

Or they’ll explore the possibility of pushing more towards a high No. 2 in a rotation if the command is dialed in and he can attack hitters in the zone with his fastball and sweeper while getting chases out of those same tunnels created.

Aesthetics Comp: Chris Sale (Delivery & Outlier release traits)