Sports Info Solutions

Log In

Category: Football

  • How the Super Bowl QBs Handle the Pocket Differently

    How the Super Bowl QBs Handle the Pocket Differently

    This matchup of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts could serve to highlight the value of special talent at quarterback, if you were inclined to make grand proclamations based on one game.

    Mahomes brings unbelievable throwing ability from all kinds of platforms, while Hurts brings physicality and athleticism. Both can extend plays with their legs (health permitting), but they make very different decisions when they do that.

    Setting a Baseline

    First off: these guys were the top two MVP candidates this year, so let’s give them credit for what they were able to do overall.

    Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts Ranks in 2022

    Mahomes Hurts
    Independent QB Rating 1st 2nd
    Passing Total Points 1st 5th
    Total Points 1st 4th

    (Suffice it to say, my position is that Mahomes deserves the MVP this year).

    Mahomes is the better passer, but he should also get credit even when compared to Hurts for his rushing contributions. He was 5th in the NFL in Total Points from scrambles, barely edging out Hurts in both volume and efficiency.

    This isn’t a discussion about who the better player is overall, because I’d argue there isn’t a discussion to be had. But these guys present an interesting case study in contrasting skills and styles that each got them to the mountaintop. And when we’re looking at players’ splits, it’s important to keep in mind what baseline we’re working from.

     

    What Happens When Plays Get Long

    At SIS we track how long it takes for a pass play to develop into whatever it’s going to develop into (i.e. a pass, scramble, or sack). That allows us to empirically confirm the statement I made earlier about both Mahomes and Hurts being able to extend plays.

    They’re each among the top 10 highest in Snap-to-Throw +/-, which takes each passer’s times and compares them to the average for similar dropbacks. A high number means they take more time to get the ball out than you’d expect on average. (Hurts’ distribution is a little skewed because there are so many RPOs in the Eagles offense. He has a lot of quick throws that are counterbalanced by very long plays.)

    Getting the ball out quickly is a desirable thing in general, because it means you’re more likely to be staying within the play design and less likely to end up on your back. And the good news for both of these guys is that they’re 1-2 in the NFL in Total Points per play when either the pass, sack, or scramble occurs before the average time of a throw for that drop type.

    When the play extends beyond what we’d expect—typically three seconds or more—these two have different results. Hurts was seven points per 60 plays worse than Mahomes when he held onto the ball. (And while the expectation I’m using is based on when the throw should come out, I am including all dropbacks in the evaluation of what happens on those plays.)

    Total Points per 60 Plays by Dropback Time, 2022

    Faster than Expected Slower than Expected
    Mahomes 17 (2nd) 17 (2nd)
    Hurts 18 (1st) 10 (12th)

    We can look at this a little differently by breaking out the kinds of plays that result from a play taking longer than a couple seconds. Here is a breakdown of how often each of several different results come out of a Mahomes or Hurts dropback, assessed every tenth of a second. Think of it as, “After X seconds into a play, how likely is Y outcome?”

    Stacked area chart showing Patrick Mahomes' rates of five different outcomes (Clean Pass, Pressured Pass, Throwaway, Sack, Scramble) as the play progresses from 1 to 4 seconds. At all time points he is likely to make a competitive throw, and he is rarely sacked.

    So what can we learn from this?

    First off, Mahomes is getting off a competitive throw (i.e. not thrown away) just under three-quarters of the time even on plays that extend beyond four seconds. That’s pretty impressive, especially considering he ranked second in the NFL in Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) under pressure.

    But it’s also important that he’s avoiding sacks. Remember, this plot is saying how often a given result occurs after that point in the play. So when the Sack band thins out after three seconds, that means he’s taking most of his sacks relatively early (likely because of blown blocks) and is avoiding them late in the play.

    Let’s take a look at Jalen Hurts for comparison.

    Stacked area chart showing Jalen Hurts' rates of five different outcomes (Clean Pass, Pressured Pass, Throwaway, Sack, Scramble) as the play progresses from 1 to 4 seconds. After 3.5 seconds he's roughly equally likely to produce any of the five outcomes.

    The right side of this plot looks a lot different than that of Mahomes. As discussed above, both Hurts and Mahomes are pretty consistent scramblers, although Hurts seems to duck and run a little earlier. But when the play extends towards four seconds, Hurts is taking a sack or throwing the ball away half the time, which is way more often than Mahomes. And once the play gets to four seconds or more, all five of these outcomes are similarly likely.

    The “good news” is that Hurts isn’t making throws under pressure nearly as often, which we know to be a bad proposition in general. And this year, Hurts was in the middle of the pack in terms of IQR under pressure, so he’d like to avoid those plays if possible. The trouble is that those sacks can be killers.

     

    How Does Mahomes’ Injury Affect This?

    Two weeks of rest should do wonders for Mahomes’ injured ankle, but if we assume he’s still a bit hampered, it stands to reason that we might expect a different look from him and the Chiefs if he’s not expected to be as effective in escaping the pass rush.

    Oddly, Mahomes has had fewer short drops, RPOs, and screens (57%) than he did in the regular season (64%), so they’re not trying to get the ball out quicker. He has been sacked just as often as well.

    He is throwing a bit less from off-platform (32%) compared to the regular season (39%), possibly a result of trying to avoid putting pressure on the ankle. Not that it matters—he has completed 20 of 23 passes for 213 yards and 3 touchdowns without his feet planted in the last two weeks. So we probably needn’t worry.

  • Who’s Up, Who’s Down Heading Into Conference Championships?

    Who’s Up, Who’s Down Heading Into Conference Championships?

    Ever since the Giants won a couple of Super Bowls earlier this century, there has been a team every few years that “gets hot at the right time” and rolls to a ring.

    While there isn’t much that can be done analytically to assess when a team will start or stop being hot, as passive observers it can be useful to know which teams are closer to their apex and which are closer to their nadir, especially when we often cite full-season stats.

    We kind of already have a sense for where teams are in that sense, though. The Chiefs are hanging on by a Patrick Mahomes ankle, the Bengals are banged up but riding high off a road win, the Eagles have gotten healthy but haven’t had to stand up to a test in quite a while, and the 49ers are doing as well as you could with a third-string quarterback.

    So, I thought I’d take a look at it from a player perspective. Which players are at their best right now? And who is at their worst?

    We can use Total Points, which captures most things a player does on the field, to evaluate how players have done in January and how that compares to the rest of the year. Because playing time can vary between months, I’ll use monthly Points Above Average, which is the underpinning of Total Points that sets average performance at zero. A player who barely plays is likely to stick close to average, while a player with a lot of playing time has the opportunity to make a bigger impact (for better or worse).

    Here are some of the players for each of the remaining four teams who have had either their best or worst month in January. They need to have played for at least 4 months to qualify.

    Eagles

    Trending upward

    A comfortable win against the Giants in the Divisional Round meant that Kenneth Gainwell got some run, totaling 112 yards on 12 carries. He achieved seven first downs on those runs. Prior to this game, Gainwell had eight first downs on 25 carries since Week 10. He was a much tougher tackle than usual, with 4 broken or missed tackles on those 12 runs. He eluded 9 tackles per 100 carries during the season.

    Kicker Jake Elliott got some good reps in thanks to a productive offense last week (5-for-5 on extra points and a made FG), and he showed himself to be far and away the most productive NFC East kicker in the playoffs this year. He is also 3-for-3 on field goals of 50+ yards in January.

    Trending down

    The players of concern for the Eagles are to some extent obvious. Both quarterback Jalen Hurts and right tackle Lane Johnson have been ailing, so a combination of missed time and less-outstanding performance puts them in this spot. Hurts didn’t need to push it once they got up big against New York, and he really hasn’t put on a show through the air since the Titans game in Week 13. Johnson looked banged up but played a full complement of snaps in the Divisional Round, and the Eagles called runs to his gap more than in any other game this year.

    49ers

    Trending upward

    The Niners are in the best spot as a team by this method of evaluation, with 10 players having their best month and 6 having their worst.

    He didn’t have a strong showing in the win against Dallas, but Christian McCaffrey was dealing prior to that bump in the road. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry in his three prior January games, with nearly a third of his rushes going for a first down.

    Safety Tashaun Gipson nabbed three of his five interceptions (and had his hands on what might have been another) in the last two weeks of the regular season. He’s generally playing deep safety, so if you’re hearing his name it’s most likely very good or very bad. In the last month it’s been more the former.

    Trending downward

    Other players in the San Francisco secondary have not been as fortunate with their recent playmaking. Breakout safety Talanoa Hufanga—for whom I have a particular affinity because he was all over the leaderboards of the SIS Football Rookie Handbook when he came out of USC—has been all over the field making plays, but less so of late. 

    Talanoa Hufanga Stats, 2022

    September-December

    (15 games)

    		 January (4 games)
    Interceptions 4 0
    Tackles for Loss 5 0
    Pressures 10 (2 sacks) 2 (0 sacks)

    Cornerback Charvarius Ward has handled being the team’s top corner well, yielding a team high in targets with pretty good results on those targets. In the last month he has allowed more successful plays, particularly against the Seahawks in the Wild Card round when he was targeted eight times for a total of 98 yards and a touchdown. A matchup with DK Metcalf was a problem in that game, and a matchup with another Ole Miss product in A.J. Brown awaits.

    Chiefs

    Trending upward

    The Kansas City skill position group has had different contributors every few weeks (behind Travis Kelce), and at this point in the year Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney are top dogs.

    Pacheco has taken the lion’s share of the carries this year, with an explosive run against the Jaguars providing a highlight in the most recent contest. This month he’s produced more first downs and been stuffed less than a third of the rate he was prior, which is a level of consistent productivity that is all this offense needs.

    Over the last three games Toney is second on the team in basically every measure of total productivity you can think of. He’s been very efficient, with a league-leading Yards per Route Run and an EPA per target that ranks in the top 10.

    Trending downward

    I’m sure it doesn’t shock you that Patrick Mahomes shows up here, based on his injury. But even before that, he had posted three of his five below-average games by Points Above Average this season since Week 14. If we assume he’ll be throwing from a stable platform more often than usual this game, it’s worth noting that in January he ranks outside the top 10 in Independent Quarterback Rating with his feet planted. He was second by that measure in the first 16 weeks of the season.

    One player who might be doing more scrambling than Mahomes is linebacker Nick Bolton, who has been targeted in coverage more than any non-cornerback in January. He has allowed a 100% Deserved Catch Rate in that span, which measures the catch rate a player allows on catchable throws and treats dropped passes as though they were completions. 

    Bengals

    Trending upward

    Cincinnati’s secondary has done better than expected in the absence of the injured Chidobe Awuzie, with most recent contributions to that effort coming from cornerbacks Cam Taylor-Britt and Mike Hilton. Each is among the 10 best defenders in terms of EPA per Target in January (minimum 10 targets), with Hilton manning the slot and Taylor-Britt on the outside. A large part of their value has come from allowing completions on just 1-of-8 targets between them on third and fourth down.

    Trending downward

    Another injury-related entry on this list comes in the form of Tee Higgins, who suffered a hip injury in Week 18 and has had below-average games since. He was always the 1b to Ja’Marr Chase’s 1a, but in the last two games Chase has him nearly doubled in targets and more than doubled in yards.

    Linebacker Logan Wilson has felt success slip through his fingers of late. He’s allowing ballcarriers to elude his tackle attempts more than twice as often in January as he had through December, and multiple passes that he could have intercepted have fallen for incompletions.

  • 5 Observations About Brock Purdy

    5 Observations About Brock Purdy

    I love a good underdog story as much as anything in sports, so I’m fully into the idea of a player who was picked last in the most recent NFL Draft being one win away from being a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl.

    That got me to looking up stats about Brock Purdy and the 49ers matchup with the Eagles on Sunday. Here are five things I found.

    1) Brock Purdy has been really good

    Purdy made his first appearance in this eight-game run in Week 13 against the Dolphins. Since then (and including postseason), he’s No. 2 in Passing Points Earned Per Play, trailing only Jared Goff of the Lions. He remains No. 2 if we look at Points Above Average Per Play on all plays (not just passes).

    He’s been worthy of the recognition.

    2)Intermediate throws

    What’s been the key to Purdy’s success?

    One important number is how he’s fared on intermediate passes, those thrown 10-to-19 yards downfield.

    He’s 33-of-46 for 648 yards on those passes since Week 13. The 72% completion percentage on those throws is the best in the NFL in that span. He went 5-of-6 for 95 yards on them against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round. Three of those throws helped set up short field goals for Robbie Gould. The other turned into a 30-yard completion to George Kittle that set up Christian McCaffrey’s go-ahead touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

    3)An Eagles edge

    A look at our Trenches tool on The 33rd Team’s website shows a distinct advantage for the Eagles pass rush against the 49ers pass blockers.

    Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in Pass Rush Points Saved on a per-play basis this season. Their opponents have had the highest blown block rate on pass attempts of any team in the league.

    The 49ers offensive line ranks 26th in Pass Block Points Earned Per Play. In other words, this is a highly unfavorable matchup for them.

    For his part, Purdy ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned Per Play when under pressure since Week 13 among the 30 quarterbacks with the most attempts.

    4)Berry, Berry Good

    Purdy is also going to have to deal with the best-playing cornerback he’s seen in his run of success in James Bradberry.

    Bradberry ranked tied for 4th in Total Points among defensive backs this season (though some might argue he’s not even the best corner on his team).

    Opponents completed 26-of-73 passes against Bradberry this season. The 36% completion percentage against was the lowest in the NFL.

    Daniel Jones didn’t have any luck. He was 0-for-2 with an interception when throwing at Bradberry.

    5) Watch what happens from in close

    Against the Cardinals and Seahawks in Week 18 and the Wild Card Round, the 49ers made it work at a high level of effectiveness once they got inside the red zone.

    Purdy was 8-of-11 for 4 touchdowns in the red zone and 4-of-5 from the 10 or closer. He did this through short passes. All four of the touchdowns came on goal-to-go from the 7-yard line or closer.

    Purdy was 4-of-8 on passes from the 10 or closer from Weeks 13 to 17 and 1-of-2 for 2 yards against the Cowboys.

    The Eagles are tough to pass against inside the 10. Their defense ranks 5th in positive percentage allowed on passes (25%) but last in positive percentage allowed on runs (57%) (for those unfamiliar, positive percentage is the percentage of positive plays allowed that the opposing offense accrues).

  • Stat of the Week: NFL’s Top Quarterbacks

    Stat of the Week: NFL’s Top Quarterbacks

    We’ll take a break from baseball for a week* to touch on one angle from the end of the NFL’s regular season – Who were the NFL’s best quarterbacks?

    We can use our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points to answer that question.

    Here’s the leaderboard for quarterbacks for Total Points this season.

    Total Points is our answer to the question: “How many points on the scoreboard was this player worth, based on his play-to-play contributions?”

    It takes nearly everything that our Video Scouts measure about a play and uses it to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare them more easily. You can learn more about it here.

    Player Team Total Points
    Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 195
    Josh Allen Bills 140
    Justin Herbert Chargers 131
    Jalen Hurts Eagles 128
    Jared Goff Lions 121
    Trevor Lawrence Jaguars 120
    Joe Burrow Bengals 116
    Kirk Cousins Vikings 104
    Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins 100
    Daniel Jones Giants 100

    What Aaron Judge was to MLB this season, Patrick Mahomes was to the NFL. Mahomes had a Superman level season. He was the runaway leader in Total Points. He led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and touchdown passes (41) by wide margins.

    The separation between Mahomes and 2nd-place finisher Josh Allen this season was 55 points, three points more than the difference between Allen and Geno Smith, who ranked 11th.

    Mahomes’ 11.5 Total Points per game is the best for any quarterback since SIS began tracking the stat in 2016.

    If Mahomes was Judge, Allen was Shohei Ohtani. He was a dual threat, finishing 9th in Passing Total Points and 3rd among all players in Rushing Total Points, two of the components in the overall Total Points stat.

    Here are the leaders in Total Points among quarterbacks and where they ranked in the stat overall.

    Name Rushing Total Points Overall Rank
    Justin Fields 60.5 1st
    Josh Allen 40.1 3rd
    Jalen Hurts 21.9 8th
    Daniel Jones 19.4 11th
    Lamar Jackson 16.8 13th

    Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert led all quarterbacks in Total Points in 2021. He was good enough to finish 3rd in Total Points in 2022 despite a 53-point drop from last year’s total. Part of the key to his value this season was simply how many plays he was involved in. His 699 pass attempts ranked second in the NFL.

    Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, and Trevor Lawrence each took big steps forward in 2022 and finished the season ranked No. 4, 5, and 6 in Total Points, respectively.

    Name Passing Total Points
    Patrick Mahomes 180.2
    Justin Herbert 137.6
    Trevor Lawrence 123.5
    Jared Goff 121.3
    Jalen Hurts 105.9

    Hurts, like Allen was a dual threat. He ranked 5th in Passing Total Points and 3rd among QBs (9th overall) in Rushing Total Points. Goff led all quarterbacks in Passing Total Points from Week 10 through the end of the season. Lawrence joined both of them in the Top 5 in Passing Total Points for the season.

    Joe Burrow, who finished 7th in Total Points, picked up where he left off from last year’s postseason. Notably, his sack percentage dropped from 9% to 6%.

    Kirk Cousins, who ranked 8th, finished three spots better than he did in 2021 and five spots better than 2020. The Vikings played an abundance of close games this year. Cousins accrued the 4th-most Passing Points Earned when the score was within eight points.

    We wish the best of health for Tua Tagovailoa, who was the NFL’s best deep passer in 2022. He finished tied with Daniel Jones for 9th. Tagovailoa led the NFL in Passing Points Earned on passes at least 20 yards downfield, completing an NFL best 53% of them. 

    Jones ranked 26th among quarterbacks in Total Points in 11 games in 2021 but thrived under new head coach Brian Daboll in 2022. Jones was another dual threat, throwing for 15 touchdowns against five interceptions (the lowest interception percentage in the league) and rushing for 708 yards and seven touchdowns. 

    Of the top 10 quarterbacks in Total Points only Goff didn’t make the postseason – and the Lions were still alive going into the final week. The other nine will get to continue trying to maintain the excellent level of play that carried them through 2022.

    * If you wish to read some baseball content, check out our piece on the Cubs making a major defensive upgrade with the signing of Cody Bellinger.

  • Sports Info Solutions 2022 NFL All-Rookie Teams

    Sports Info Solutions 2022 NFL All-Rookie Teams

    Sports Info Solutions, a leader in the football analytics space, is pleased to announce its 3rd annual NFL All-Rookie Teams. 

    The teams were selected using a combination of advanced stats and voting among members of our football operations staff, with emphasis placed upon SIS’ player value stat, Total Points. 

    With a loaded edge and secondary class this year, we’ve made sure to honor many of whom have performed extremely well this season.

    The Lions and Seahawks led the way with the most selections this season with four apiece (the Seahawks had three first-teamers, the Lions had two). There were also numerous teams who had three players featured.

    Here are the 2022 Sports Info Solutions All-Rookie Teams and award winners.

    (clicking hyperlinks takes you to their page at The SIS 2022 NFL Draft Website)

    Rookies of the Year

    Tyler Linderbaum of the Ravens wins our Offensive Rookie of the Year after an incredible season. Linderbaum accounted for 43 Total Points this season, helping the wounded Ravens make it into the NFL Playoffs.

    Last season, we had a serious discussion about Creed Humphrey for this award, but we couldn’t justify crowning him over Ja’Marr Chase or Mac Jones. However, this year, the discussion was had and this time the center won out. 

    There were a lot of ways Defensive Rookie of the Year could have gone. Ultimately, we went with the shutdown corner in Sauce Gardner of the Jets. Sauce locked up nearly every weapon opposing offenses threw at him this year on his way to a whopping 64 Total Points, most among rookies.

    Our Special Teams Rookie of the Year goes to a returner. That returner is Patriots CB Marcus Jones. While Jones did contribute well on defense, he was a difference maker as a return man.

    1st-Team Offense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Quarterback Brock Purdy 49ers 47
    Running Back Tyler Allgeier Falcons 40
    Running Back Kenneth Walker III Seahawks 8
    Wide Receiver Garrett Wilson Jets 28
    Wide Receiver Chris Olave Saints 23
    Tight End Chigoziem Okonkwo Titans 17
    Tackle Abraham Lucas Seahawks 30
    Tackle Tyler Smith Cowboys 27
    Guard Zion Johnson Chargers 35
    Guard Cordell Volson Bengals 26
    Center Tyler Linderbaum Ravens 43

    Quarterback: Brock Purdy, 49ers

    What a story Brock Purdy has been this season. Drafted with the very last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Mr. Irrelevant made a huge impact for the San Francisco offense down the stretch. 

    Stuck behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garrappolo on the depth chart to start the season, Purdy has performed admirably since being called upon. He became the first 49ers QB to win his first three career starts, en route to a 5-0 record after being named the starter. Purdy has the highest IQR (114.2), is tied for the most TD passes (13), and has the 4th-most Passing Total Points (47) among QBs with at least 70 attempts since Week 13.

    Running Back: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons

    After being listed an inactive in Week 1, Allgeier went on to play significant snaps in every game the rest of the season, starting 7 of 16 games. Allgeier, a 5th-round pick out of BYU was 1 of 2 rookies to break the 1,000-yard mark on the ground in 2022. His 1,035 yards broke the Falcons rookie rushing record that has stood since 1979. Among RBs with at least 100 carries, Allgeier ranked 7th in 1st Down rate (25.2%), 3rd in Points Above Replacement (36.5), and had the 7th-best stuff rate (13.8%).

    Running Back: Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks

    Kenneth Walker III was used sparingly in the first five weeks to open the season, but once Rashaad Penny went down in Week 5, the Seahawks turned to their rookie. From Week 6 on, Walker’s 905 rushing yards and 8 rushing TD both ranked 5th-best in the NFL. Additionally, his 21.5% Broken+Missed Tackle rate ranked 3rd. Along with Allgeier, he was the only other rookie rusher to go over 1,000 rushing yards on the season, rushing for 1,051.

    Wide Receiver: Garrett Wilson, Jets

    As the second WR drafted in 2022, Wilson had big expectations coming into The Big Apple, and he didn’t disappoint. His 1,103 receiving yards led all rookies. He and Olave were the only rookies to top the 1,000-yard receiving mark. Even with subpar QB play, Wilson helped elevate a Jets team that narrowly missed the playoffs. He finished the season with a 91% On-Target Catch rate, 7.4 Yards per target, and a Bust rate of just 10.7%. Wilson really excelled with the ball in his hands, as his 22.9% Broken+Missed Tackle rate ranked 8th among all WRs with at least 50 targets.

    Wide Receiver: Chris Olave, Saints

    For a team that desperately needed receiving help coming into 2022, Olave was a perfect fit. Without Michael Thomas for most of the season, Olave stepped in as a new 1,000-yard receiver for the New Orleans offense. While a threat all over the field, he was utilized as a deep threat often, as his 1,793 intended air yards was the 4th-most among WRs in the entire NFL, and he had a 14.6 ADoT. With that said, his 119 targets pales in comparison to the three guys above him, as their lowest target number was 170.

    Tight End: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans

    A 4th-round TE, Okonkwo stepped up as a huge receiving threat for the Titans in 2022. Among TEs with at least 25 targets on the season, Okonkwo’s 2.9 yards per route run were a half yard higher than second-place Travis Kelce’s 2.4, albeit with just 46 targets. He also led TEs with 14.1 yards per reception, ranked 2nd with 9.8 yards per target, and 5th in receiver rating (122.6). As a blocker, he was called for only a single blown block, with none coming on 139 run blocking snaps.

    Tackle: Abraham Lucas, Seahawks

    Lucas started all 16 games he played in, missing only Week 17 due to an injury. In total, he was on the field for 96% of the offensive snaps. His 30 Total Points led all rookie OTs, and his 22 blown blocks were fewest. Additionally, his 4.7 Points Above Average as a pass blocker were 7th-best among OTs with at least 500 snaps played.

    Tackle: Tyler Smith, Cowboys

    The tough, nasty tackle out of Tulsa, Smith played 99% of the snaps for the Cowboys offense, starting in all 17 games. His 27 Total Points trailed just Lucas among rookie OTs. Those 27 Total Points were 6th-most in the entire league among LTs. While his 2.9% overall blown block rate ranked in the middle of the pack among LTs, his 1% blown block rate on run plays tied-6th best.

    Guard: Zion Johnson, Chargers

    Johnson played nearly every snap for the Chargers in 2022, starting in all 17 games at guard. His 35 Total Points led the way for rookie OGs, and ranked 12th among all OGs. His 23 blown blocks and 2% blown block rate all stood out from the rest of the rookies at his position.

    Guard: Cordell Volson, Bengals

    A 4th-round pick out of North Dakota State, Volson started every game and played every snap at guard for the Bengals this season. His 26 Total Points were 3rd among rookie guards. He finished with a 2.6% blown block rate, but only a 1.2% blown block rate on run plays, which tied him for 9th-best among guards with at least 500 snaps played.

    Center: Tyler Linderbaum, Bengals

    Our pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the center out of Iowa dominated in his first year at the NFL level, starting all 17 games for the Ravens. 

    Linderbaum’s 43 Total Points not only led all rookie offensive linemen, but it also ranked 3rd among all NFL centers. His Total Points (23) and Points Above Average (6.6) on run plays trailed just Jason Kelce. His 1.3% overall blown block rate and 1.1% blown block rate on run plays also stand out in the Top 10.

    1st-Team Defense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Interior Defensive Lineman Perrion Winfrey Browns 9
    Defensive Lineman Aidan Hutchinson Lions 29
    Edge Travon Walker Jaguars 27
    Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux Giants 24
    Linebacker Quay Walker Packers 41
    Linebacker Devin Lloyd Jaguars 34
    Cornerback Sauce Gardner Jets 64
    Cornerback Tariq Woolen Seahawks 47
    Defensive Back Kader Kohou Dolphins 62
    Safety Kerby Joseph Lions 46
    Safety Jalen Pitre Texans 44

    Interior Defensive Lineman: Perrion Winfrey, Browns

    A 4th-round pick by the Browns, Winfrey still played in 13 games and played over 40% of the defensive snaps in 2022. His 9 Total Points led all rookies that were true DTs. He racked up 22 tackles, 0.5 sacks, and 7 pressures during the season. He finished with a positive Points Above Replacement, and his 39% positive play rate tied 10th-best among DTs with at least 5 pressures.

    Defensive Lineman: Aidan Hutchinson, Lions

    The No. 2 overall pick by the Lions, Hutchinson continually improved in all facets of his game throughout the season. Hutchinson is the first player to finish a season with 9.5 sacks, 3 INT, and 2 fumble recoveries since 1990, is the only rookie to ever do it, and is one of only two DL to ever do it. His 53 pressures led all rookie defenders, and ranked 19th among all DE/LBs. If he continues to refine his skills, he could be the home run Detroit was looking for in a pass rusher.

    Edge: Travon Walker, Jaguars

    Walker, the No. 1 overall pick, had a solid season and helped lead Jacksonville back into the playoffs. Walker played over 75% of Jacksonville’s defensive snaps and started 14 of his 15 games played in 2022. His 27 Total Points were 2nd among all rookie edge defenders. He finished with 33 pressures and an 8.6% Pressure rate. Walker is known  for his athleticism, he showed some coverage ability as well. Walker also had an interception, 3 Total Points in coverage and had a positive Points Above Average.

    Edge: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants

    Thibodeaux worked himself into a solid rookie season as the No. 5 pick after some speculation he could be in the top 2. He started all 14 games he played in and saw action on nearly 80% of New York’s defensive snaps. Thibodeaux finished the season with 24 Total Points and 42 pressures. He also garnered 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and sported an 11.5% Pressure rate.

    Linebacker: Quay Walker, Packers

    Walker was a difference maker in the middle of the Packers defense who started 16 of his 17 games played. His 41 Total Points led all rookie front-seven defenders. Additionally, Walker’s Broken+Missed Tackle rate of just 7.6% ranked in the top 20 among LBs with at least 40 solo tackles. In coverage, Walker’s 19 Total Points and 5.3 Points Above Average ranked top 10 among LBs. Aside from the two ejections, including the costly one late in the Week 18 finale, Walker has shown he can be the guy Green Bay needs at the linebacker position for years to come.

    Linebacker: Devin Lloyd, Jaguars

    Coupled with No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker in the 1st round, Lloyd himself had a strong year for the Jacksonville defense, and a big reason why the Jaguars are back in the playoffs. He finished with over 100 tackles, added 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries. 21 of Lloyd’s 34 Total Points came in coverage, which ranked 4th among all LBs. Additionally, his Points Above Average (5.5) and Points Above Replacement (7.2) in coverage both ranked in the top 10.

    Cornerback: Sauce Gardner, Jets

    Sauce was everything as advertised coming out of college to the NFL. The No. 4 overall pick’s 64 Total Points led all rookies in 2022. Additionally, his 45 Total Points in coverage was 5th-best among all NFL CBs. Despite Gardner’s reputation as a lockdown corner, QBs still tested him as a rookie, sending 70 targets his way (tied-14th). However, he gave up a completion rate of just 44.3%, a deserved catch rate of just 63.6%, and a Passer Rating against of just 47.3, all ranking in the top 13 among CBs with at least 10 targets faced. Additionally, he added 17 passes defensed, which led all CBs.

    Cornerback: Tariq Woolen, Seahawks

    The long-limbed 5th-round pick out of UTSA, Woolen let NFL QBs know early and often what a difference maker he is at CB, picking off a pass in four straight games early in the season. His 6 interceptions tied for the league lead among all defensive backs. In addition, he added 11 pass defenses which tied for 7th-most among NFL CBs. His Passer Rating against (43.9) and Deserved catch rate (64%) both ranked top 11 among CBs with at least 10 targets.

    Defensive Back: Kader Kohou, Dolphins

    One of the best stories in the league this season is undrafted free agent Kader Kohou out of Division II Texas A&M-Commerce. His 62 Total Points trailed just Sauce Gardner for most among all rookies. Kohou played sparingly for the most part in the first five weeks of the season, but saw nearly every defensive snap for the Dolphins from Week 8 on. He saw the most targets among anyone in football in 2022 with 82, giving up a reception on less than half of them. Looking at just Week 8 on, Kohou’s 42 Total Points and 28.3 Points Above Average in coverage led all CBs.

    Safety: Kerby Joseph, Lions

    Joseph didn’t see any defensive snaps until Week 4, a week after starter Tracy Walker went down with a season-ending injury. From Week 4 on, Joseph’s 28 Total Points in coverage ranked 5th among all safeties and his 11.5 Points Above Average ranked 9th. Additionally, he finished the season with 4 interceptions and 4 pass defenses. After picking off Aaron Rodgers in the Week 18 finale, Joseph became the first player to ever have 3 interceptions against Rodgers in one season. He would’ve had 4 (2 on Sunday night) if not for a penalty.

    Safety: Jalen Pitre, Texans

    If you talk about a player who makes plays all over the field, that discussion has to include Pitre. Along with his 44 Total Points, Pitre finished the year with 146 tackles, 9 TFL, 5 INT, and 5 passes defensed. His 24 Total Points against the run ranked 4th among all safeties. Additionally, his 8.1 Points Above Average ranked 8th, but is hit hard by a 18.9% Broken+Missed Tackle rate, something he’ll need to clean up moving forward.

    1st-Team Specialists
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Kicker Cameron Dicker Chargers 13
    Punter Ryan Stonehouse Titans 29
    Returner Marcus Jones Patriots N/A

     

    Kicker: Cameron Dicker, Chargers

    After going undrafted, Dicker was waived by two teams during training camp before finally signing in Philadelphia in October. He went 2-of-2 in one game for the Eagles, but was reverted to the practice squad and released a couple weeks later. After signing with the Chargers and being elevated to kick in Week 9, he never looked back. Overall, he converted on 21-of-22 field goal attempts and made all 24 of his extra points. From Week 9 on, his 19 made field goals tied for 2nd in the NFL.

    Punter: Ryan Stonehouse, Titans

    Another undrafted specialist in the 2022 NFL Draft, Stonehouse brought his huge leg with him from Colorado State to Tennessee. After winning the job in camp, Stonehouse managed to set an NFL record for highest gross punt average with 53.1 yards per punt, breaking Sammy Baugh’s record of 51.4 which was set in 1940. Additionally, Stonehouse’s net average (45.1) ranked 4th and his number of punts inside the 20 (30) and 10 (11) both ranked 7th.

    Returner: Marcus Jones, Patriots

    As our inaugural selection at returner, Marcus Jones helped make a difference for the Patriots in 2022. His 364 PR yards led the NFL, which included an epic touchdown return to beat the Jets in the final seconds of their Week 11 matchup. As a kick returner, he secured 645 KR yards, good for 5th-most in the league. He also helped out in other ways, intercepting two passes on defense and even scoring a touchdown on offense.

    —

    In all, five offensive 1st Teamers and seven defensive 1st Teamers received a 6.7 final grade or higher from us, as seen on our NFL Draft site, suggesting those players will at least be high-end three-down starters beginning their second season. We’ll see if they begin 2023 the way they played this season to warrant those final grades, but we like their chances.

    Below, you can find our All-Rookie 2nd Teams which include big names like Breece Hall, Drake London, Christian Watson, and Jaquan Brisker.

    2nd-Team Offense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Quarterback Kenny Pickett Steelers 37
    Running Back Dameon Pierce Texans 11
    Running Back Breece Hall Jets 14
    Wide Receiver Drake London Falcons 24
    Wide Receiver Christian Watson Packers 12
    Tight End Greg Dulcich Broncos 10
    Tackle Charles Cross Seahawks 25
    Tackle Jamaree Salyer Chargers 25
    Guard Dylan Parham Raiders 23
    Guard Cole Strange Patriots 19
    Center Luke Fortner Jaguars 40

     

    2nd-Team Defense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Interior Defensive Lineman Logan Hall Buccaneers 8
    Defensive Lineman George Karlaftis Chiefs 20
    Edge Drake Jackson 49ers 18
    Edge James Houston Lions 7
    Linebacker Christian Harris Texans 23
    Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez Lions 18
    Cornerback Trent McDuffie Chiefs 44
    Cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. Browns 37
    Defensive Back Jack Jones Patriots 27
    Safety Jaquan Brisker Bears 32
    Safety Rodney Thomas II Colts 27

     

    2nd-Team Specialists
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Kicker Cade York Browns 7
    Punter Jake Camarda Buccaneers 12
    Returner Dallis Flowers Colts N/A

    We want to highlight some of the close calls and honorable mentions who didn’t quite make the cut. 

    Some guys who just missed out include Jaylen Warren (RB), George Pickens (WR), Jahan Dotson (WR), Daniel Bellinger (TE), Ed Ingram (OG), and Jordan Davis (IDL). Ingram actually had the 2nd-most Total Points among rookie OGs, but his 37 blown blocks were 3rd-most among all NFL OGs.

    One somewhat surprising inclusion is James Houston from Detroit. He only had 7 Total Points on the season, but it’s hard to argue with 8 sacks in 7 games. Luke Fortner also gets a shoutout. His 40 Total Points would usually be an easy 1st-Team selection, but a rough draw with Tyler Linderbaum in the draft class has him pushed to 2nd Team.

    As mentioned earlier, each year we change some of the positions to account for the depth at certain areas specific to this draft class. This year, with the lack of depth on the defensive interior, we tweaked the defensive line to highlight the plethora of edge talent from this class. Additionally, with the secondary as packed as it was, it made sense to add in a 5th DB position instead of the normal hybrid position.

    You can check out last year’s article here to see how the positional structure changed. Again, the entire idea of these teams is to highlight the best players across the league, and we feel we did that.

    With all but just seven teams represented among these selections, this once again signifies that plenty of talent is being dispersed throughout the league. In our three years making these selections, every team has had at least one player featured.

    Go check out the SIS NFL Draft site to see what we said about these players coming into their NFL careers, and stay tuned to see what we’ll have to say about the next generation of NFL stars as they head into the 2023 NFL Draft.

  • What Will Happen When Georgia Has The Ball

    What Will Happen When Georgia Has The Ball

    Returning former walk-on and junior college transfer Stetson Bennett, Georgia’s offense performed even better this year than last, going from .13 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play to .18 and from 6th to 4th among FBS teams. In comparison, TCU’s defense ranks 39th, an apparent mismatch on paper. But given the Horned Frog’s strengths and improvements, the Bulldogs may face trouble.

    TCU runs the 3-3-5, almost always featuring a head-up nose on the center. At linebacker, Dee Winters aligns to the wide side of the field, Johnny Hodges the short, and Jamoi Hodge the middle. Safety Bud Clark aligns according to the receivers, Mark Perry away from the receivers, and Millard Bradford in the middle. Jim Thorpe award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton complete the secondary, locking down the corners.

    While also their largest unit, the secondary ranks as the Horned Frogs best as well, at 11th in Total Points per play. The linebackers place lower at 42nd, and the defensive line even lower at 116th. In spite of the weakness up front, TCU rarely sends four or more to rush the passer, doing so only 45% of the time, the least in the FBS. Instead, the Horned Frogs normally sit in a three-high shell, from which they play Cover 3 on 34% of passes and Cover 1 on 35%.

    Given their small, nickel personnel and relative lack of experience, with only four multi-year starters, the Horned Frogs look ill-suited to stop the Bulldogs smashmouth offense. TCU has  faced 12 personnel on only 20% of its defensive downs, but Georgia runs it on 59% of its downs. Its package also features two of the best tight ends in the country.

    Brock Bowers and Dwayne Washington average .06 and .05 Total Points per play, both top-10 among tight ends with 400 or more snaps, and prove nearly impossible for linebackers to cover or safeties to shed. Bowers has even run the ball on a few occasions, toting the rock on jet sweeps, ends around and reverses. Despite their design for small, shifty, and fast receivers, these runs have netted the 6 ‘4, 230-pound Bowers 94 yards and 6.6 Total Points on 7 attempts. 

    What TCU can handle

    But surprisingly enough, TCU defends against two tight ends rather effectively, allowing -0.19 EPA per play against this package. To match run-heavy personnel on the field, the Horned Frogs compensate for their lack of size by quickly adjusting their alignment to the formation at hand. 

    Given heavy packages, TCU can either go base, one-high and drop two safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, or drop Bradford into the box. Putting the two overhang safeties down low lets them force runs inside to the linebackers much more quickly, and moving Bradford’s positioning gives the Horned Frogs an extra body to stop the run. These adjustments also leave TCU’s coverage mostly intact, as it can rotate safeties to their proper spots depending on whether it calls zone or man.

    Normally teams struggle when forced to adjust their base defense, but TCU has thrived in this situation. As a whole, switching defenses has actually improved the unit, not weakened it.

    Transitioning from Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5 match quarters to Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 three-high base, the Horned Frogs have lowered their points allowed per game by 8.5, risen 85 spots in EPA per play and 78 spots in Total Points per play from last season. TCU continues to improve too, having increased its EPA per play ranking from 73rd to 28th and its Total Points per play ranking from 49th to 28th between their first and last seven games.

    The Bulldogs have a lot of weapons

    Were Georgia limited to 12 personnel and keeping the ball on the ground, TCU’s defense would pose severe problems for the Bulldog offense. But fortunately for the Bulldogs, they have more weapons at their disposal and other ways to attack the defense. 

    Georgia has a reputation for smashmouth football, and given its personnel choices and EPA per run ranking (17th) it is deserved. But it earns more EPA per play out of 11 personnel than 12, and rank higher in EPA per pass (2nd) than they do per run. With Adonai Mitchell returning from injury and joining Ladd McConkey, the two tight ends, and Kenny McIntosh, the passing game should do even better.

    Even more important for this matchup, these strengths of Georgia’s offense align with relative weaknesses of TCU’s defense. Even with five defensive backs on the field, the Horned Frogs allow .12 more EPA per play against 11 personnel than 12. Though TCU does defend the pass better than the run, Georgia’s EPA per play margin between the pass and run more than doubles that of the Horned Frog defense. To add to the Horned Frogs’ difficulties, certain sets and formations give the defense even more trouble.  

    Against formations with different personnel to each side, for convenience called “unbalanced” formations and consisting of sets like trips, TCU allows only -.13 EPA per play. Facing balanced formations on the other hand, such as twins or a wideout and tight end to each side, the Horned Frogs give up .11 EPA per play. 

    Exposing a potential weakness: Twins

    At face value, this split seems rather strange, but judging from the Horned Frogs normal alignment, the issues become clear. TCU can align at least five in the box against unbalanced sets, align enough defensive backs over the receivers and fill the alleys if the offense runs outside. But against balanced sets, particularly twins, TCU must either keep only four in the box to stop the run, or match a safety, and one who will likely not have help, with a slot receiver. 

    Unfortunately for TCU, Georgia produces .34 EPA per play from twins. Even worse for the Horned Frogs, the Bulldogs’ most basic play stresses the seams in their defense. Out of the twins set, Georgia likes to run the inside zone, but with a pre-snap RPO for the receivers running the bubble screen, quick screen, or hitch. Depending on the look of the defense, Bennett can either carry out the zone-read against a shorthanded, misaligned, or blitzing box or throw the screen against an understaffed secondary.

    The empty set exacerbates the issues in pass defense that TCU faces versus twins. The Horned Frog defense must either forfeit space to the receivers, risk a receiver burning an isolated defensive back for a big gain, or both. In the Peach Bowl, Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh took advantage of the space against Ohio State to score a 25-yard touchdown off a tunnel screen. In the Fiesta Bowl, Michigan’s Ronnie Bell beat TCU’s backside safety for a 44-yard gain off a corner post.

    Georgia will likely come out in 12 personnel and attempt to pound TCU into submission. The Horned Frogs could cave, but they have the scheme and the guts to stay in this game and force the Bulldogs to look for other answers. Georgia may find them, given enough time to test the right personnel, formations, and plays. But the TCU defense will not make it easy.

  • What Will Happen When TCU Has The Ball

    What Will Happen When TCU Has The Ball

    TCU’s offense has completely changed course from just a season ago, jumping from 65th to 5th in points per game and 36th to 15th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.  Georgia’s defense, on the other hand, has continued its dominance from last season, ranking 5th in points allowed per game and 10th in EPA per play. Despite their different histories and styles, both will play Monday for all the marbles. For the week leading up to it, both will project how the other will play and prepare for what they anticipate.

    How TCU Aligns

    Like most offenses Georgia has faced this season, TCU bases out of 11 personnel, running on 46% of its offensive plays. 10 personnel ranks second amongst TCU’s most frequently used packages at 29%. From both these packages the Horned Frogs go Twins and Trips, occasionally detaching the tight end in 11. 

    As the only other package used more than 15% of the time, 12 personnel allows the Horned Frogs to put two tight ends to one side and twin receivers to the other.

    For defenses whose fronts and secondaries align according to the same principles, they likely will have too few defenders over the tight ends or receivers, depending on which position they emphasize covering. Defenses that align the front according to the interior and secondary according to the receivers, also known as detaching the secondary, can better manage this. But not without costs. They still may struggle with defensive backs facing tight ends in the running game.

    Approach

    From these packages the Horned Frogs run the ball 52% of the time. TCU bases out of Inside Zone, but changes it up with Power and Outside Zone. Off these runs Max Duggan provides another threat, as he can keep the ball off the Zone Read, run the Power, or take the Draw. Emari Demercado may take the bulk of the carries depending on Kendre Miller’s condition, a tribute to TCU’s depth at running back but Miller’s absence would be a  blow nonetheless. 

    When passing, Duggan takes a 3-step drop 47% of the time, 0/1 steps 32% of the time, with hardly any screens or rollouts. Snag, Shock, Switch, Stick, and Cross all play major roles in TCU’s passing repertoire, usually with Quentin Johnston as Duggan’s primary target.

    Kirby Smart, the second Saban disciple Sonny Dykes will face this season,  runs a similar 3-4 scheme to Alabama. The nickel package, however, plays the most, with Javon Bullard on the field 63% of the time.

    The Bulldogs will go four down quite often, with linebacker Robert Beal Jr. putting his hand in the dirt. Georgia primarily aligns its safeties in a two-high shell pre-snap, from which it rotates to Cover 3 on 48% of passing plays. When showing a one-high shell, the Bulldogs still run Cover 3, but can also mix it up with Cover 1, which they run on 37% of their plays. The Bulldogs also prefer Cover 1 when blitzing, which they do on 26% of passes.

    Throughout the defense, none of the units exhibit glaring weaknesses. All three starting linebackers rank in the top 36% in Total Points per play among FBS linebackers with at least 300 snaps, including Smael Mondon Jr. at 13th. All starting defensive backs ranked in the top third of their position in Total Points per play, despite the primary players being two sophomores and two freshmen. But between starting three upperclassmen, featuring potential NFL draft first pick Jalen Carter, and ranking 12th among all FBS defensive lines in Total Points per play20, Georgia’s front three leads the defense.

    Defending the spread rushing attack

    Georgia’s strongest unit will need to come to play against TCU’s spread rushing attack. The Horned Frogs exposed the Michigan defense when its defensive line, the Wolverines strongest unit as well, failed to control the line of scrimmage. But blaming the unit’s performance for the defense’s woes fails to account for other issues.

    Throughout the entire game Michigan played with two standup ends, a difficult position from which to defend the run. Other times its center, Alan Ali, would face no tackle aligned on him, allowing him to either get an easier double team or to block the linebacker without hindrance. Both of these alignment issues left open space for TCU’s best and most popular run, inside zone. Off the zone cutback, TCU gained 140 yards on 11 attempts, good for 9.1 Expected Points Added.

    Georgia will likely put Robert Beal Jr. in a three-point stance throughout the night, as it looks to prevent such easy yards for the run game. To vary the front, the Bulldogs may also put the three down linemen in a bear front to take away the A and B gaps.

    In addition to poor alignment, unnecessary risks doomed the Wolverines. Blitzing five, six, and even seven did not get the anticipated pressure, and instead left the secondary short-handed and exposed. 

    With what they perceive as the talent advantage, the Bulldogs will not go abroad in search of monsters to slay. Instead, they will likely stay in the two-high shell until TCU either runs through their defensive line or dots the field with short passes. 

    Choices

    TCU may have room to do just this. Without playing the safety closer to the line of scrimmage, Georgia will either have an alley exposed or apex a linebacker to fill the space. Which they prefer to do will depend on the situation and each team’s respective performance. Early in the game the Bulldogs may keep a linebacker, most likely Smael Mondon Jr., closer to or in the box. As the game progresses that linebacker may align closer to the receivers.

    Against the expected alignments and coverages, TCU has options. If Georgia keeps its two-high shell, TCU could align in trips and either run or pass to that open space. TCU tried this a few times against Michigan, with mixed results. Outside zone, Stick, and Snag appear the most likely candidates for this role in TCU’s playbook.

    The Horned Frogs can also create similar opportunities by motioning its receivers across the formation. Georgia’s defensive backs often follow players in motion, and depending on whether this happens TCU can decide whether to attack to the numbers advantage toward or away from motion.

    Ohio State did this incredibly well in their first drive against Georgia. In four plays, the Buckeyes utilized formations and motions that not only revealed flaws in the defense, but gave the Buckeyes insight into how the Bulldogs would align and cover the rest of the game. Not to mention, they also drove 71 yards and scored.

    Counter approach

    Even more basic than formations and plays, the Horned Frogs may change their personnel. Kirby Smart has built the Bulldogs to defend the SEC’s 11 personnel offense. Only four of their opponents this season used 10 personnel more than 7% of the time, compared to TCU’s 29%. By going 10 personnel, the Horned Frogs can put pressure on the linebacker and safety alignment, leaving either too few in the box or the open space in the alley.

    Georgia’s defense expects to have the better talent in this game. But TCU’s offense has road graders as well, and given a great gameplan by Sonny Dykes and Garrett Riley, the Bulldogs may have to stray from their base to keep a lid on the Horned Frogs. With the close margin between the talents and schemes of each team, the TCU offense and Georgia defense will need to plan, execute, and perform to their greatest potential in order to take home the crown.

  • The Return of the Schembechler Approach

    The Return of the Schembechler Approach

    Since his 2015 arrival in Ann Arbor, Jim Harbaugh has resurrected the Michigan program in Bo Schembechler’s image. From donning the glasses to emphasizing “The Team, The Team, The Team”, Harbaugh introduced the visuals. With consecutive Big Ten championships and College Football Playoff appearances, the wins have followed.

    Harbaugh has even continued the offensive tradition he himself ran as quarterback under Schembechler back in 1986. With 36 years and several offensive revolutions between the two teams, the tactics have definitely changed. But while the methods differ, the philosophy remains the same. The Wolverines, both old and new, jab defenses continuously with the run behind their superior offensive lines, patiently waiting to knock them out with the play action pass.

    Between the different styles, rules, and innovations of each era, comparing offenses from one period in time to another rarely provides any useful information. But even with these issues, the 2022 Wolverines look statistically similar to those from 1986. The 1986 Wolverines ran 69% of the time, compared to the 63% that the 2022 Wolverines do. When ranking each among their respective peers, the 1986 team ranked 21st in rushing attempts FBS teams, while the 2022 team ranked 9th.

    In the backfield, players from both teams share several similarities. Both quarterbacks,  Harbaugh in 1986 and J.J. McCarthy in 2022, have nearly identical lines in most major metrics.

    Harbaugh: 65% comp pct, 2,729 pass yards, 151.7 passer rating

    McCarthy: 65% com pct, 2,376 pass yards, 155.4 passer rating

    At running back, Jaime Morris ran 209 times for 1,086 yards in 1986, good for 5.2 yards per carry. Blake Corum and his injury replacement Donovan Edwards have done even better this season, with Corum averaging 5.9 yards per carry on 247 attempts, and Edwards gaining 7.5 yards per carry on 117 attempts.

    But the offensive line makes this production possible. John Vitale, later voted a member of the 1988 College Football All-America team, led the 1986 team at center. Jumbo Elliot, a future Pro-Bowler,” started at tackle for Schembechler.

    For the 2022 Wolverines, Outland Trophy Winner Olusegun Oluwatimi centers the line, which as a unit has won the Joe Moore Award in consecutive seasons. The line as a whole ranks 3rd in Total Points (PE per play) and 8th in Expected Points Added per play (EPA/A) this season. Among all FBS linemen who have played over 500 snaps, no Michigan starter ranks lower than the 78th percentile in PE per play.

    Despite similar tools and a shared philosophy, the teams differ in their offensive packaging. Schembechler’s offenses operated under center, almost always with two running backs, and often three. Harbaugh’s offenses work from the gun usually with only 1 running back, instead adjusting the number of tight ends and receivers in the formation according to the situation.

    With many runners in the backfield, the Wolverines of old had a variety of ways to run the ball. To attack quickly inside, Michigan ran dive or iso. To hit off tackle, the Wolverines called power. To stretch the defense outside, the quick pitch and stretch came into play. To get all backs involved, Schembechler would break out the Wishbone and run the veer. 

    Modern Michigan stresses the same points in the defense, but in different ways. Inside zone makes up the plurality of all Michigan runs at over 44%, while Duo ranks as its best base run. The Wolverines rank 2nd in Duo usage among all FBS teams, and among high-usage offenses average the 2nd-highest PE per play.

    While the modern run game differs greatly from that of the past, power remains a popular run at all levels. The Wolverines have run it 61 times this season and rank 8th in PE per play when using it. Paired with counter, the Wolverines have two time-tested ways to run the ball in the C gap.

    To get the ball to the perimeter, the Wolverines typically call either the sweep on the ground or screen in the air. Their most effective method, however, comes from the option. Schembechler used the option with veer to get the quarterback involved in the run game and to attack multiple parts of the defense at once. Harbaugh pairs the option with inside runs, usually zone, for a similar goal, as he gets an inside threat with the running back and an outside threat with the quarterback on the same play. Ranking 1st in PE per play when the quarterback keeps the ball on the option, Harbaugh’s Michigan can run effectively to the outside while also threatening the interior of the defense.

    As with their respective runs, Schembechler’s and Harbaugh’s play action passes differ in design and execution. But in purpose, the principles remain the same, and sometimes can make plays from 36 years apart look eerily alike. To attack the middle of the field, both offenses contain a concept with a cross and a post. In the clips below, Schembechler’s receivers run the routes on opposite sides of the formation, while Harbaugh’s align on the same side. Each team, however, called the play with the same idea in mind.

    To attack deep to the outside, each offense used a play sending a wideout down the seam only for a player from the backfield to wheel into the secondary.

    As with the runs, each offense’s play action passes reflect its respective era in terms of tactics, but represent Michigan’s philosophy with regard to its intentions.

    Football’s offenses and defenses constantly grow and change over time. While instilling the fighting spirit and methods of his mentor and predecessor Bo Schembechler, Jim Harbaugh has found a way to mesh this philosophy with modern offensive theory. By implementing the traditional smashmouth style with current strategy and tactics, the Wolverines have replicated, and could exceed, the program’s past successes.

  • Snub Season: Who Should Have Made The Pro Bowl

    Snub Season: Who Should Have Made The Pro Bowl

    It’s the most wonderful time of the year – the time where we all gather round to complain about our favorite players missing the Pro Bowl. The NFL’s annual all-star event has lost some of its luster in recent years, but this otherwise-frivolous institution is still used as a benchmark for contract incentives. It’s just a popularity contest to fans, but making or missing the Pro Bowl has real, financial implications for the players. And because it’s a popularity contest, a lot of deserving players miss the cut.

    NFC

    Fred Warner was rightfully selected to the Pro Bowl, but his cohort Dre Greenlaw probably should have made it too. Greenlaw is the only NFC linebacker to rank in the top 10 in both run defense Total Points and pass coverage Total Points, with Greenlaw ranking 8th and 1st in those respective categories. He’s also averaging 8.5 tackles/game with an average tackle depth of just 1.2 yards, which is 2nd-best in the NFC (minimum 30 tackles). Greenlaw was a fifth-round pick in 2019 and has performed really well in a contract year, so making the Pro Bowl could have helped him a ton in contract negotiations this offseason.

    One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Just a few months after being released by the Giants, new Eagles cornerback James Bradberry leads the NFL in coverage Total Points (49), is 3rd in coverage Total Points/snap (0.09), and ranks 2nd among qualifying corners (200+ cover snaps) in yards/cover snap (0.4). He’s done all this while seeing a high volume of targets across from teammate Darius Slay, who did make the Pro Bowl. 

    Bradberry has been thrown at 62 times and has allowed the lowest completion percentage in the NFL at 34%. Ideally, the goal is to suppress targets, but corner play is volatile and very few players achieve that consistently. Bradberry deserved a Pro Bowl nod this year, and it was surprising he didn’t get it considering just how good the Eagles have been.

    Honorable mention: PHI DT Javon Hargrave ranks 2nd in pressure rate (10.4%) and 3rd in Total Points/pass rush among NFC DTs, but it’s hard to bump any of Aaron Donald, Jonathan Allen, and Dexter Lawrence, especially when all three are better run defenders.

    AFC

    The 6-8 Jaguars don’t get a lot of fanfare, and second-year corner Tyson Campbell predictably did not get a Pro Bowl bid over some of the household names on winning teams. However, he’s had a really good sophomore campaign and, quite frankly, deserved the Pro Bowl slot over Dolphins corner Xavien Howard, who is having an uncharacteristically bad year and ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed. Campbell, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass coverage Total Points and has the 6th-best positive play rate (33%) among corners who have been targeted at least 10 times. Unfortunately, emergent players on losing teams have a tough time making the Pro Bowl.

    In another instance of a household name making it over a less-established, albeit more deserving player, T.J. Watt, who has played just seven games this year due to injury, made the Pro Bowl as an outside linebacker over the Dolphins’ Jaelan Phillips. Miami’s second-year edge ranks 4th in the AFC in both pressure rate (17.4%) and pass rush Total Points Saved (21) among players with 100+ pass rushes. His 57 pressures rank 9th in the NFL this season, but a low sack rate (2%) and a middling sack total (7) bely just how good he’s been.

    Honorable mention: CIN WR Tee Higgins has had a really good year. He ranks 4th in the NFL in Total Points/route run among wide receivers with 50+ targets, behind Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill, but it’s hard to argue he’s better than those guys, and the fourth AFC WR is his teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, who draws more attention from opposing defenses.

    This year’s Pro Bowl voting seems to have been a bit better than previous seasons. As always, there were some selections that were based on name-brand recognition more than anything, but the snubs seemed few and far between. As disappointing as that is for a Scrooge like me who loves to complain, it is nice to see that a lot of emerging young stars got their due. Players like Quinnen Williams and Talanoa Hufanga should soon become household names in their own right, and maybe some of this year’s snubs aren’t too far behind.

  • The 2022 NCAA All-SIS Teams

    The 2022 NCAA All-SIS Teams

    With the end of the college football regular season, it’s time to release our All-SIS teams. In addition to a voting process in our Operations staff, we used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together two teams of All-SIS selections for 2022, plus a few honorable mentions.

    You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

    These picks are meant to honor this season’s best-of-the-best in the sport.

    First Team Offense

    Position Name School
    QB Caleb Williams USC
    RB Bijan Robinson Texas
    RB Blake Corum Michigan
    WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Ohio State
    WR Jalin Hyatt Tennessee
    TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame
    OT Darnell Wright Tennessee
    OT Joe Alt Notre Dame
    OG Isaac Cochran Air Force
    OG Hadley Panzer Kansas State
    OC Olusegun Oluwatimi Michigan

    QB – Caleb Williams, USC

    The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner and Oklahoma transfer led USC into the Pac-12 Championship Game and nearly into the College Football Playoff. His 204 Total Points ranks 2nd among all quarterbacks. Of all quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts, his interception rate ranks 4th, impressive for a QB with 511 pass attempts, 9th-most. Additionally, his 129.4 IQR ranked 2nd only to Grayson McCall. However, Williams attempted over 150 more passes than McCall. Of the 102 passers pressured on at least 50 attempts, his 137.5 IQR under pressure blew out the rest of the competition.

    RB – Bijan Robinson, Texas

    The third-year player from Texas lived up to the preseason hype surrounding his 2022 campaign. He finished the regular season 5th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,578), 2nd in yards after contact (1,002), and 2nd in forced broken and missed tackles (50 & 35). He led all FBS running backs in Total Points this season (76) by a wide margin, contributing in both the running and passing game. Robinson’s running has put Texas in a great position to eclipse the 8-win mark for the 1st time since 2018, and he is expected to be a top NFL draft pick as well.

    RB – Blake Corum, Michigan

    In his first year as a full-time starter, Corum ran wild for Michigan’s offense. Corum was a part of a ground attack that led the country among all non-service academy teams in rushing yards. Additionally, he is a big reason why the Wolverines find themselves in the College Football Playoff. Both his total rushing yards and yards after contact rank 8th in the country. Additionally, his 96 1st Downs rank as 2nd-most among FBS backs.

    WR – Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

    A human highlight reel waiting to happen every Saturday, Marvin Harrison Jr. dominated Big Ten defensive backs. He has the most receptions among receivers with 1 or fewer drops and possesses the 2nd-lowest drop rate at 1.2%. He makes catches at every level of the field, as shown by his 843 air yards, which rank 2nd in the country. Among WRs with at least 75 targets, he ranks 4th in yards per route run, 6th in 1st Down rate, and 6th in Receiver Rating.

    WR – Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee

    In his first year as a full-time starter, Hyatt exploded on the scene, highlighted by his 5-TD game in the upset victory over Alabama. He is tied-1st among FBS wide receivers in touchdowns (15), 4th in receiving yards (1,267), and 3rd in yards per reception (18.9) among those with at least 70 targets. His impact was also seen in more advanced stats as he leads FBS receivers in yards per target (13.9) and receiver rating (155.1) by a huge margin. Hyatt established himself as one of the best deep threats in college football this year and could be an early pick as he’s already declared for the NFL Draft.

    TE – Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

    Mayer’s 51 Total Points is 13 better than 2nd place among TEs this season. He leads all TEs in touchdown receptions with 9 and is the only player at the position to see more than 100 targets. Additionally, his 75 catchable targets and 67 receptions are 2nd most. Over the last two seasons, Mayer has solidified himself as one of the top tight ends in all of college football.

    OT – Darnell Wright, Tennessee

    Wright is tied for the lead among all OTs with 37 Total Points. He’s part of an offensive line unit at Tennessee that ranks 2nd in the country in pressure rate allowed and 6th in passing yards. Wright, himself, only has 5 blown blocks all season. His 0.6% Blown Block rate ties him for 10th-best among all OL with at least 700 snaps. As a run blocker, his 24 Total Points ranks him 8th-best among all FBS linemen.

    OT – Joe Alt, Notre Dame

    The massive, 2nd-year tackle out of Minnesota dominated for Notre Dame this season. He ranks top 10 among FBS tackles in Total Points (33) despite playing far fewer snaps than most of the other top tackles. His 0.3% Blown Block rate ranks 1st among FBS offensive linemen with at least 700 snaps. Alt made a big impact in the run game where he generated the 4th-most Total Points among all FBS linemen (25). South Bend will be glad to have him back next season and he should be a popular name on Preseason All-American teams.

    OG – Isaac Cochran, Air Force

    Leading all FBS offensive linemen in Total Points this season was Cochran with 45. The fifth-year player for Air Force was a major factor for the top rushing offense in the country. Air Force ran for more than 4,000 yards this season (excluding QB kneels) and Cochran’s 0.2% Blown Block rate on run plays was a key component. 

    OG – Hadley Panzer, Kansas State

    Panzer ranks 2nd behind fellow All-SIS member Isaac Cochran among OGs with 37 Total Points in 2022 and carries only a 1.8% Blown Block rate on the year. Panzer and Kansas State’s OL unit helped lead the Wildcats to a 10-win season and a Top 10 ranking. The unit also helped pave the way for the 10th-most rushing yards in FBS college football.

    OC – Olusegun Oluwatimi, Michigan

    Beginning his career at Air Force, before becoming a 3-year starter at Virginia, Oluwatimi had high expectations coming to Michigan, and he lived up to them. He won both the Rimington Award (college football’s top center) and the Outland Trophy (college football’s top interior lineman) in his only season in Ann Arbor. Unsurprisingly, he also dominated the metrics, leading FBS centers in Total Points (39). He also ranks top 10 in Blown Block rate (0.6%) among centers with at least 700 snaps and despite playing over 800 snaps, is 1st in Total Points per snap.

    First Team Defense

    Position Name School
    DT Jer’zhan Newton Illinois
    DT Jalen Carter Georgia
    EDGE Tyree Wilson Texas Tech
    EDGE Will Anderson Jr. Alabama
    LB Jaylan Ford Texas
    LB Cedric Gray North Carolina
    LB/DB John Marshall Navy
    CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU
    CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois
    S Jason Taylor II Oklahoma State
    S Brian Branch Alabama

    DT – Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois

    Newton was the most disruptive force on one of the best defenses in college football this year. He leads the team in TFLs and sacks and recovered two fumbles as well. He leads all FBS defensive tackles in Total Points (42) and was equally effective against the rush and against the pass, ranking 1st and 2nd among defensive tackles respectively in Total Points. The third-year player leads all defensive tackles in knockdowns and is 2nd in total pressures, highlighting his disruption.

    DT – Jalen Carter, Georgia

    Carter is part of a Georgia team that sees themselves back in the College Football Playoff for the second straight season. While playing in 10 games, although sparingly in most, he’s still managed to churn out 22 pressures, good for a top 20 mark among DTs; that’s a pressure rate of 10.8%, which ranks tied for 11th. When Carter is on the field and healthy, he’s a force to be reckoned with, a large reason why he’s a likely top-5 pick in the NFL Draft come April.

    EDGE – Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

    Wilson came on strong for the Red Raiders each of the past two seasons. His work on the field has led to him accepting an invitation to play in this year’s Senior Bowl. He’s collected 41 Total Points in 2022, which is helped by his 6.5 sacks and 40 pressures. The latter  is ranked top 15 nationally among edge defenders.

    EDGE – Will Anderson Jr., Alabama

    Anderson spent the majority of the year being double and triple-teamed, but still found a way to have a massive impact. He ranks top 10 in sacks and tackles for loss as well as leading all FBS defenders in pressures. He has averaged more than 1.5 TFLs per game for his CAREER and he is finally eligible for the NFL Draft. The likely top-5 draft pick and only 2-time All-SIS 1st-Teamer has been the most dominant defensive player in college football in back-to-back years and should be playing on Sundays next season.

    LB – Jaylan Ford, Texas

    Leading all FBS linebackers this season in Total Points (both off-ball and edge) is Ford with 66 Total Points. Teams have a positive percentage of just 31.5% on run plays when he’s in the game, 3rd-best among qualified FBS linebackers. Ford also ranks 2nd among FBS linebackers in Total Points in coverage (34). The first-year starter has double digit TFLs as well as 4 INTs and 3 FF. His well-rounded, impactful game earned him a spot on our All-American team.

    LB – Cedric Gray, North Carolina

    Gray’s 64 Total Points ranks 2nd amongst all front-seven defenders, trailing only Jaylan Ford. However, he tops Ford in Total Points in coverage (35). He also ranks 2nd in the country with 141 total tackles and is tied-3rd with 3 forced fumbles. Additionally, he possesses a mere 7.8% Broken+Missed Tackle rate and 2.7 yards average tackle depth.

    LB/DB – John Marshall, Navy

    One of the most exciting players in college football, Marshall finished the regular season top 5 in the FBS in TFLs with nearly 20 and 3rd in sacks at 11.5. Listed as a “Striker” on Navy’s roster, he lines up all over the field, primarily in the slot, but also seeing extensive time on the edge. He ranks 2nd among FBS safeties in Total Points (57) and has far more pressures (39) than any other defensive back, with the 2nd-highest at 16. Marshall’s versatility and play style make him a perfect fit for the LB/DB position and worthy of a 1st-Team selection.

    CB – Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, TCU

    The non-quarterback with the most Total Points (82) by a wide margin will be playing in the College Football Playoff. He ranks 2nd among FBS cornerbacks in coverage Total Points and 7th in run defense Total points, highlighting his impact. While he could be a little handsy (FBS-leading 8 pass interference calls), he’s still tied-2nd in the FBS with 0.5 yards per coverage snap with the 5th-lowest EPA per target (minimum 40 targets).

    CB – Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

    Witherspoon was part of an outstanding Illini defense in 2022, one that helped the team into a top 25 ranking for most of the season. Among DBs who have been targeted at least 40 times, Witherspoon far and away has the best Passer Rating Against (a ridiculous 1.0). He’s also 1st in yards per cover snap (0.4), 3rd in yards allowed (184), tied-7th in PBUs (14), and tied-10th in completions allowed (17).

    SAF – Jason Taylor II, Oklahoma State

    Taylor II was outstanding on the back end for a strong Oklahoma State squad this season. His 56 Total Points tied for 3rd-best among listed safeties. Among safeties who were targeted at least 25 times, his Passer Rating Against ranks 4th, yards per cover snap is tied-4th, and deserved catch rate is in the Top 10. Additionally, he consistently made plays on the ball, recording 6 interceptions and 9 PBUs.

    SAF – Brian Branch, Alabama

    Branch is tied-3rd in Total Points among safeties this season (56) and ranks 4th against the pass. He’s 2nd on Alabama in Total Points in coverage, Total Points against the run, and TFLs showing his value all over the field. The third-year player primarily lined up in the slot, but saw time out wide, in the box, at edge, and at safety as well. Per usual, another Alabama player will have a big NFL draft decision coming up.

    First Team Specialists

    Position Name School
    K Christopher Dunn NC State
    P Adam Korsak Rutgers
    Returner Nikko Remigio Fresno State

    K – Christopher Dunn, NC State

    Dunn is 2nd in the FBS in FG% after going 24-of-25 this season (minimum 10 attempts) and has converted the 2nd-most FGs. He is a perfect 14-of-14 under 40 yards, 2-of-2 over 50 yards (including tying a career long of 53 yards), and 30-of-30 on extra points. He has 9+ points six times this season and finished the regular season on the ultimate high-note after kicking a game-winning field goal against rival UNC in double-overtime.

    P – Adam Korsak, Rutgers

    The Ray Guy Award winner, Korsak put up some ridiculous numbers in 2022. His 32 punts inside the 20 is tied-1st, 14 punts inside the 10 is tied-2nd, 35 fair catches forced is tied-2nd, 44-yard net average is tied-7th, and 8 punts returned is tied-7th. However, the most ridiculous stat is the fact that Korsak and the Rutgers punt coverage unit allowed -11 punt return yards on the year. 75 punts, 8 returns, and negative return yards. What a season!

    Returner – Nikko Remigio, Fresno State

    Only four players returned two kicks/punts for touchdowns this season, and Remigio was one of them. Both of his return touchdowns came on punts (Derius Davis was the only other who had 2 PR TDs). He’s averaged 19.9 yards per punt return, nearly six yards more than Davis among players with double-digit punt returns. He was no slouch as a kick returner either. Across 23 kick returns, he accumulated 480 yards, or a 20.9 average.

    2nd Team All-SIS

    Position Name School
    QB Drake Maye North Carolina
    RB Mohamed Ibrahim Minnesota
    RB Quinshon Judkins Ole Miss
    WR Nathaniel Dell Houston
    WR Charlie Jones Purdue
    TE Brock Bowers Georgia
    OT Christian Duffie Kansas State
    OT Caleb Rogers Texas Tech
    OG Nick Broeker Ole Miss
    OG Zak Zinter Michigan
    OC John Michael Schmitz Minnesota

     

    Position Name School
    DT T.J. Jackson Troy
    DT Jonah Tavai San Diego State
    EDGE Jose Ramirez Eastern Michigan
    EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu USC
    LB Tommy Eichenberg Ohio State
    LB Ivan Pace Jr. Cincinnati
    LB/DB Tanner Ingle NC State
    CB Reddy Steward Troy
    CB Clark Phillips III Utah
    S Cole Bishop Utah
    S Sydney Brown Illinois

     

    Position Name School
    K Jake Moody Michigan
    P Ty Zentner Kansas State
    Returner Johnnie Lang Arkansas State

    Led by our leading Total Points getter Drake Maye, the 2nd Team is full of stars, as well. 

    The offense features the nation’s leader in receptions (Charlie Jones), the nation’s leader (tied) in receiving touchdowns (Nathaniel Dell), and arguably the best tight end in all of college football (Brock Bowers).

    The defense features the nation’s top 2 sack leaders (Tuli Tuipulotu & Joe Ramirez) and two of the players with the 2nd-most interceptions in the country (Clark Phillips III & Sydney Brown), while the special teams features the player with the nation’s most field goals made (Jake Moody). Additionally, for the second consecutive season Nick Broeker makes the team at OG and our 2nd-Team Returner hails from Arkansas State (Johnnie Lang).

    Honorable Mentions

    Position Name School
    QB Hendon Hooker Tennessee
    RB Zach Charbonnet UCLA
    WR Emeka Egbuka Ohio State
    WR Josh Downs North Carolina
    TE Dalton Kincaid Utah
    OT Cooper Hodges Appalachian State
    OT Davis Heinzen Central Michigan
    OG Cooper Beebe Kansas State
    OG Lokahi Pauole UCF
    OG Connor Finucane Army
    OC Hayden Gillum Kansas State
    DT Braden Fiske Western Michigan
    ED Owen Porter Marshall
    ED Andre Carter Western Michigan
    LB Jack Campbell Iowa
    CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon
    S Benjamin Morrison Notre Dame
    K Will Reichard Alabama
    P Tory Taylor Iowa
    P Jack Browning San Diego State
    Returner Jordan Byrd San Diego State
    Returner Derius Davis TCU
    Returner Anthony Gould Oregon State

    With this being our first year opening this up to a vote across our Football Operations department, we decided to list out some Honorable Mentions who just didn’t quite make the cut for the first two teams.

    Nine conferences plus Independents are represented by our teams. Our scouts put in a lot of hard work and dedication this season charting games and scouting players for every FBS team. After a successful reveal of our first annual All-SIS teams last year, we feel this was another great season of college football as shown by these selections.

    Total Points, stats, and ranks as of 12/14/2022