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  • SIS NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: Green Bay Packers

    SIS NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    Green Bay Packers

    The State of the Packers:

    A wild offseason in Green Bay after falling short in the playoffs at the hands of the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers’ question marks were squashed when he was handed a large extension, but subsequent cuts had to be made to satisfy the contract requirements, with many familiar names leaving Green Bay, including star WR Davante Adams.

    Green Bay needs WR desperately and has some gaps at RT and LB. The Packers have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds to address these issues. Could this be the year they finally take a WR in the first round?

    #22 Overall

    Treylon Burks – WR – Arkansas

    Burks will have to improve as a sharp route separator as his tree expands moving forward, but his body control, catching skills, and competitive speed make him an impact player at all levels of the field.

    Burks gives the Packers a highly athletic and alpha-type receiver to be their new #1.

    Chris Olave – WR – Ohio State

    Olave has the catch radius, catch skills, and tracking ability to be a threat at all levels of the field, but needs to become a cleaner route runner and get quicker out of breaks to take advantage of his full potential.

    Olave is a well-rounded WR that can win at any level, filling the void left by Davante Adams’ departure.

    Nakobe Dean – LB – Georgia

    Dean is a smart, rangy linebacker who excels against the run and pass at all three levels of the field, but a lack of length, and inconsistencies as a tackler and disengaging blockers may prove difficult for him from time to time.

    Dean’s smarts and speed would be a perfect complement to De’Vondre Campbell’s tackling ability, and likely becomes their green-dot wearer of the future.

    #28 Overall

    Jahan Dotson – WR – Penn State

    Dotson’s size and toughness limit him in certain situations, but his explosiveness and body control allow him to make spectacular plays at all levels of the field.

    Safe hands and an all-around game would give Rodgers reliability at one of the WR spots.

    Tyler Smith – OT – Tulsa

    Smith consistently puts defenders on the ground while using heavy hands and generating tons of movement in the run game, and while he should be tabbed as a starter, he needs to clean up the holding penalties and become a better space player.

    Smith is a dominant run blocker, with good strength and athleticism. Would be a likely candidate to start at RT immediately.

    Quay Walker – LB – Georgia

    Walker’s ability to defend the run and play in zone coverage make him an intriguing prospect at his size and athletic profile, and if he can continue to improve his instincts, he has the potential to be a high-level starter at the next level.

    Very similar to current MLB De’Vondre Campbell, Quay could sure up the linebacker room with high athleticism and a well-rounded game.

    #53 Overall

    Nicholas Petit-Frere – OT – Ohio State

    Petit-Frere’s lateral mobility, innate athleticism, hand use, and pedigree are strong traits to bank on at the next level, but he’ll need to improve in pass protection and overall consistency to see time as a starter.

    Great athlete, and comes with run game strength, and workable pass protection, all giving the line depth or a potential RT starter.

    Tariq Woolen – CB – UTSA

    Woolen’s gliding strides, elite athleticism, and superior length are difficult traits to teach, but he needs to match his play strength to his size and continue growing his natural coverage skills and comfortability to reach his high ceiling.

    A future starter with great athleticism, solves the Packers’ corner depth issue while getting an impact player.

    #59 Overall

    David Bell – WR – Purdue

    Bell needs to improve his route running separation skills, but his deep ball tracking and slippery ball carrying abilities should make for a multi-level threat and a reliable, alignment-versatile third option.

    Bell’s downfield abilities with his awesome YAC skills would make for a dynamic weapon not currently seen in the Packers WR room.

    Daniel Faalele – OT – Minnesota

    Faalele has the gargantuan size and surprising athleticism teams salivate over in a potential tackle, but he will need to continue to improve his body composition and his foot quickness to reach his high potential.

    Faalele being a giant, he could easily be an elite right tackle prospect, but needs to learn how to correctly use that size.

    #92 Overall

    Darrian Beavers – LB – Cincinnati

    Beavers is a powerful, smart, and versatile linebacker that teams look for in the Mike position, but will need to work on his man coverage skills and become more consistent stacking and shedding to see time as a starter.

    Beaver’s run game physicality and smarts to redplays and navigate trash would make an excellent MLB duo.

    Coby Bryant – CB – Cincinnati

    Bryant doesn’t have elite speed and needs to become a better tackler, but is an intelligent and athletic corner who has the field awareness and ball skills to be a long-time starter at the next level.

    Bryant’s smarts and ball-skills will make him a day 1 starter, even when the Packers are invested in their current corners.

    To learn more about the Packers and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: New England Patriots

    NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    New England Patriots

    The State of the Patriots:

    After failing to get past the Wild Card Round for the third year in a row, the Patriots will look to retool their team to get out of what has been uncharted territory in recent memory. After a highly successful 2021 draft, the Patriots and Bill Belichick will look to build upon that success in an ever improving AFC East division. 

    With losses in free agency and aging stars, the defensive side of the ball, especially in the back 7, is an area of concern that will need to be addressed in the draft. 

    On offense, finding second year quarterback Mac Jones a bona fide No. 1 receiver is crucial as well as retooling the team’s biggest strength from last season, the offensive line.

    #21 Overall

    Devin Lloyd – Will LB – Utah

    Lloyd has the speed, aggressive mindset, pass rushing ability, and defensive playmaking ability teams crave in a Will linebacker, and if he continues to hone his craft within the box, he has a very high ceiling.

    Lloyd’s versatility would fit perfectly into a Bill Belichick defense as he can make an immediate impact in coverage as well as rushing the passer.

    Trent McDuffie – CB – Washington

    McDuffie is a fluid athlete who has the speed, quickness, and transition ability to be a solid shutdown corner at the next level, though his size for the outside and limited on-ball production could be what holds him back.

    Adding a plus athlete with the upside of a shut down defender who can also make an impact in the run game will contribute to filling the void of losing top cornerback JC Jackson.

    Treylon Burks – WR – Arkansas

    Burks will have to improve as a sharp route separator as his tree expands moving forward, but his body control, catching skills, and competitive speed make him an impact player at all levels of the field.

    The Patriots have lacked production from a big bodied receiver after missing on former first round pick N’Keal Harry. Adding the toughness, ball skills, and big frame that Burks provides will give Mac Jones a great target in his offense.

    #54 Overall

    Tariq Woolen – CB – UTSA

    Woolen’s gliding strides, elite athleticism, and superior length are difficult traits to teach, but he needs to match his play strength to his size and continue growing his natural coverage skills and comfortability to reach his high ceiling.

    Woolen’s rare combination of athleticism and length will fit well in the Patriots versatile secondary. If he can develop his raw talent and can cash in on interception opportunities he can help fill the void of JC Jackson’s turnover production.

    Chad Muma – Mike LB – Wyoming

    Muma is an explosive player with ideal size and a motor that does not quit in order to make splash plays and contribute as a core special teamer, but he needs to refine his skills to make a consistent impact in all areas.

    Adding a high motor, agile, tackling machine to the second level of the defense will allow this defense to take the next step. Muma’s athleticism in the run game will provide a big boost in what was at best a sufficient tackling team last year.

    Darian Kinnard – OG – Kentucky

    Kinnard is a big, strong blocker with a mauling mentality in the run game, but needs to refine his footwork, hand accuracy, and overall technique in the pass game to be an effective starter at the next level.

    After losing both starting offensive guards from last season, the Patriots will have Michael Onwenu to fill one spot and will need to find a replacement opposite him. The Patriots were at their best when running the football and Kinnard figures to fit right in as his biggest strength is blocking upfield in the run game.

    #85 Overall

    Nik Bonitto – Edge – Oklahoma

    Bonitto is an athletic, rangy, bendy pass rusher who should excel at getting to the passer with his lack of strength and run game stoutness limiting him to just third downs early in his career at the next level.

    After signing Matt Judon in free agency last year, finding another stand-up pass rusher to fit in their 3-4 defense is important to the Patriots success. Bonitto’s athleticism and motor figures to fit well for the Patriots on third down and in definite pass situations.

    Alec Pierce – WR – Cincinnati

    Pierce has the size, speed, and big-play ability that teams want in an outside receiver, but his inability to consistently win 50/50 balls will limit his appeal to be a game-changing receiver.

    Adding Alec Pierce to the offense would provide Mac Jones with a down the field option to an otherwise short and intermediate passing game.

    Kerby Joseph – S – Illinois

    Joseph is a rangy, ball-hawking deep safety who has the smarts and skills to be a starter at the next level, though he’ll become more of a threat if he gets a little more physical and is willing to mix it up more often.

    Adding a ball-hawking defensive back now, will not only allow him to learn from Devin McCourty, but also help fill the turnover void left by the departed JC Jackson.

    To learn more about the Patriots and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: Cleveland Browns

    NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    Cleveland Browns

    The State of the Browns:

    It’s been a rollercoaster of an offseason for the Browns. First, they tell Baker Mayfield he’s their quarterback then they pursue Deshaun Watson. Watson tells the Browns they are out of the running, then reverses course and chooses to sign with the Browns. 

    Now, the Browns have both Watson and Mayfield on the roster at quarterback, as Mayfield is still waiting to see where his next destination is going to be. Not to mention they’ve also signed Jacoby Brissett and Joshua Dobbs. 

    In the meantime, the rest of the roster isn’t in terrible shape. A few hits in this year’s draft and the Browns could be set up nicely for a big run in 2022. However, they don’t have a 1st-round pick. What they do have is three picks on Day 2, which is where a lot of the meat in this class is located. Let’s check out some options for their three Day 2 picks.

    #44 Overall

    Quay Walker – LB – Georgia

    Walker’s ability to defend the run and play in zone coverage make him an intriguing prospect at his size and athletic profile, and if he can continue to improve his instincts, he has the potential to be a high-level starter at the next level.

    Cleveland’s current linebacker room is young and talented, but adding Walker to the mix would give them more depth and versatility with him being in the mix for the Mike job by year 2.

    Skyy Moore – WR – Western Michigan

    Moore is a lightning-quick receiver with room to grow and the innate skills that allow him to be a dynamic playmaker for a creative offense at the next level, especially if his refinement and development go as planned.

    The receiving corps has been spread a little thin since Odell Beckham was traded and Jarvis Landry left in free agency. Moore is a dynamic receiver who should step into a slot role right away and give Watson a strong weapon in the middle of the field.

    Travis Jones – DT – UConn

    Jones is a physical and technical defensive tackle who has the strength and hand use that transition to the NFL, though he needs to get more agile and improve as a pass rusher in order to see time on all three downs.

    While Jones isn’t rated in our Top 101, he’s still growing as a pass rusher, and one has to think getting out of UConn and into an NFL room will be a huge step in the right direction for him. He should fight for rotational snaps on the interior D-line right away.

    #78 Overall

    Cole Strange – OG/OC – Chattanooga

    Strange has the reactive athleticism to mirror defenders, consistent leg drive to move them, and the nastiness to finish through the whistle, but he’ll need to improve his balance, footwork, and awareness to maximize his potential.

    The Browns are in very good shape at the guard position, but lack some interior depth. Strange is a versatile player who can fill any of the interior offensive line positions, whether that be at guard or center.

    Josh Paschal – Edge – Kentucky

    Paschal is a strong run defender and brings power as a pass rusher, but needs to get much more consistent and detailed with his pass rush plan in order to really be a three-down player at the next level.

    Paschal wore a lot of hats on Kentucky’s defensive line, but lining him up at edge and letting him reduce down on occasion will be a huge benefit to the defensive front.

    #99 Overall

    Jelani Woods – TE – Virginia

    Woods is an adequate receiver and blocker with the smarts and physicality to see time as a backup tight end, though he’ll need to get faster and improve his functional strength once he gets to the next level.

    Woods went from rarely seeing passes in four years at Oklahoma State to having a breakout receiving campaign in his lone year at Virginia. Woods should bring another athletic option to the tight end room that still has David Njoku and Harrison Bryant.

    Coby Bryant – CB – Cincinnati

    Bryant doesn’t have elite speed and needs to become a better tackler, but is an intelligent and athletic corner who has the field awareness and ball skills to be a long-time starter at the next level.

    The 2021 Jim Thorpe Award winner is somewhat forgotten behind his teammate Sauce Gardner, but Bryant is a smart corner who has plenty of instincts and ball skills to be productive at the next level.

    To learn more about the Browns and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: Tennessee Titans

    NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    Tennessee Titans

    The State of the Titans:

    The Tennessee Titans secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC last year, but lost their 1st playoff game to the Bengals. Derrick Henry coming back from injury will be a welcomed sight, but losing Rodger Saffold creates a hole in their offensive line. Losing Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans will also have the Titans looking to bolster their linebacker depth.

    The skill positions are basically set, adding Robert Woods and Austin Hooper should help take pressure off of Henry. 

    The Titans are likely only a couple pieces away from being a threat in the AFC again and will look to improve their offensive line in the draft.

    #26 Overall

    Zion Johnson – Guard – Boston College

    Johnson is a plug-and-play left guard at the next level with the anchor and hand usage to pass protect at a high level and the scheme versatility to excel in the run game.

    The Titans have a hole at guard and Johnson can step in and start day 1. This isn’t the sexiest pick, but it works so well and Derrick Henry will be the first to welcome him.

    Kenyon Green – Guard – Texas A&M

    Green can have inconsistent hand placement and needs more refined technique against finesse rushers, but he is a physical and athletic guard with the footwork, sheer strength, and awareness to be a difference maker on the inside.

    Green will immediately improve the offensive line and has all the traits teams look for in a zone-scheme guard.

    #90 Overall

    Marcus Jones – Cornerback – Houston

    Jones is an excellent, fluid athlete with the speed, quickness, and mirror-match ability to excel at the next level, but his size and issues against bigger receivers may prove difficult to overcome from time to time.

    Jones’ ability to be a starting slot cornerback and a kick returner should make him a valuable player in his first year.

    Brian Asamoah – Linebacker – Oklahoma

    Asamoah makes up for his lack of size and play strength with explosive speed, an alpha-dog mentality, and desire to enforce his will on his opponents on his way to claiming a starting spot at the next level.

    The Titans lost some linebacker depth this offseason and Asamoah is a tone-setting linebacker that can elevate other players around him.

    To learn more about the Titans and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • Minnesota’s O-Line Dominates Metrics But Not Draft Boards

    Minnesota’s O-Line Dominates Metrics But Not Draft Boards

    The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been the embodiment of Big Ten football the last couple of seasons. They led the FBS in 2021 in the number of plays with 6 offensive linemen and 7 offensive linemen on a play, usually accompanied by a tight end or two as well. Their offensive line was the most experienced in college football with 204 combined starts between the 5 starters. Not only were they experienced, they were massive as well; bigger than the Minnesota Vikings’ offensive line. Unsurprisingly, the team was very effective at running the ball and the metrics illustrate that.

    When it comes to overall  Points Earned, all 5 Minnesota starters rank in the top 18 in the Big Ten for blocking with 4 players in the Top 8. While they did earn some points for pass blocking, the run blocking aspect is where they dominate. Minnesota has 5 of the top 6 Big Ten linemen when it comes to points earned for run blocking. With 4 of its 5 linemen in this year’s draft, why are those players not being talked about more?

    While metrics can tell a very interesting story, it can be easy to overlook the elements that factor into it. Minnesota is an extremely run-heavy team who also relies heavily on RPOs and has a stable of high-quality running backs. The entire offensive line was healthy for the whole year and they often had help blocking with massive tight ends or extra linemen. This isn’t to say the offensive line isn’t good, but rather that they are just perfectly situated to dominate in Minnesota’s offensive scheme.

    Cohesiveness between an offensive line is paramount to their success and Minnesota was able to keep a fairly consistent offensive line together over the last couple of years. Players understand each other’s assignments and how to communicate stunts and blitzes effectively. When the linemen are looked at individually compared to as a whole, there are some strengths and weaknesses that begin to emerge.

    Daniel Faalele is the best pro prospect on the Minnesota offensive line. He is an absolute mountain of a man with athleticism not seen in men his size very often. While he has been only playing football a few years, he shows immense potential. 

    One of the things Minnesota coaches is the 45-degree set. The offensive line treats the line of scrimmage like a 45-degree angle which allows the tackles to keep up with speed rushers on the outside, but leaves them vulnerable to inside moves. The vertical set is much more common in the NFL and this is a new technique for Faalele. Faalele showed a lot of upside while at Minnesota, but Minnesota’s offensive scheme is not what the NFL uses and he will need to adjust to this.

    Blaise Andries and Conner Olson both had a ton of starts in college and were very effective in their roles. They are being viewed as Day 3 picks at best with a good chance of going undrafted. 

    Similar to Faalele, Minnesota’s offensive scheme highlighted their strengths while masking any deficiencies. 

    Olson set the Big Ten record for most collegiate starts and was as durable as they come, but he’s close to his ceiling already and lacks fluidity in open spaces that teams want to see out of their interior linemen. 

    Andries was a valuable piece that could be moved just about anywhere and be counted on, but he doesn’t drive defenders off the ball and struggles with leverage on the interior. Sam Schlueter was another linemen who helped pave the way for Minnesota, but he received a low grade and likely saw his best football at the collegiate level. 

    These players had great college careers, but playing in a scheme that fit their strengths, and having the entire offensive line in sync was a big reason for their success.

    The Golden Gophers have not had an offensive linemen drafted to the NFL since 2006. That’s likely to end this year. Minnesota’s offensive line is filled with NFL-level players, but there will be plenty of players drafted higher or have bigger NFL roles that don’t show up as metric darlings. 

    Metrics are a great tool to dissect a game, a team, a player, but it is important to remember that these players are still humans with strengths and weaknesses. Evaluating a player requires individual film analysis along with metrics. While the Minnesota offensive line will be broken up and find various roles at the next level, it is fun to sit back and take in just how dominant they were together during the 2021 season.

  • NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: Houston Texans

    NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    Houston Texans

    The State of the Texans:

    There is not much positive to say going on in Houston, besides being free of the never-ending news cycle of Deshaun Watson rumors. Acquiring multiple years of extra draft picks, the Texans put themselves in a great spot to improve. 

    New head coach Lovie Smith looks to take a team in the bottom 5 of virtually all efficiency metrics, and turn it around. 

    Every position is a need for this team as they are certainly in “best player available” mode. Tytus Howard and Laremy Tunsil will be a capable blindside to incumbent QB Davis Mills, as well as Brandin Cooks as a No. 1 option, but both sides of the ball are desperate for talent.

    #3 Overall

    Kayvon Thibodeaux – Edge – Oregon

    Thibodeaux is a game-changing pass rusher and strong run defender who plays with heavy hands and good leverage, though he needs to improve his flexibility and run a hotter motor to become a more complete player.

    If a No. 1 overall talent is going to make it to pick number 3, Houston should spend no more than 30 seconds on the clock. The ceiling is too high.

    Evan Neal – OT – Alabama

    Neal is a young prospect with the rare combination of size and athletic ability that give him both a high floor and a Hall of Fame ceiling as a blind-side protector.

    Even with Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, Neal’s versatility and athletic abilities are too high to pass on. Get him on the team and figure out alignment later.

    #13 Overall

    Jordan Davis – DT – Georgia

    Davis is a powerful and physically imposing nose tackle with the ability to become a true game wrecker up the middle of the field as long as he improves his effort level and stamina.

    The heart of a dominant defense, Davis’ play style and build requires a ton of opposing line attention. He would make all other rusher’s lives easier while dominating on run defense.

    Jermaine Johnson II – Edge – Florida State

    With his pass rush ability, strength, and power, Johnson should make an instant impact at the next level, though he needs to become more consistent across all areas of the game to hit his full potential.

    A “best player available” selection for a team with virtually no pass rush. Johnson can step in Day 1 and play at an NFL level. 

    Garrett Wilson – WR – Ohio State

    Wilson has the speed, route running, and ballcarrying traits that excite teams, and if he can work on attacking the ball when it’s in the air and improving his ability along the sideline, he will be a strong starter very early in his NFL career.

    Wide receiver might not be a top priority, but a full audition for Davis Mills as a franchise QB requires more than just Brandin Cooks as a pass-catcher.

    #37 Overall

    David Ojabo – Edge – Michigan

    Ojabo is an excellent athlete with the speed, range, bend, and flexibility to be a force as a pass-rush specialist, but he needs to get stronger and just see more reps in order to develop into an all-around player at the next level.

    Give him all the time he needs to recover from the Achilles tear, and get a first round player at a massive discount.

    Quay Walker – LB – Georgia

    Walker’s ability to defend the run and play in zone coverage make him an intriguing prospect at his size and athletic profile, and if he can continue to improve his instincts, he has the potential to be a high-level starter at the next level.

    Walker’s diverse skill set and high athletic potential make him an easy “BPA” style pick.

    Sam Howell – QB – North Carolina

    Howell has the arm strength, mobility, and improvisational skills to be productive at the next level, but his lack of eye discipline, pocket awareness, and footwork might make it tough for him to be more than a circumstantial starter.

    Davis Mills may or may not be the answer to the Texans puzzle. But it isn’t often a QB with so much starting experience and production history is available in the 2nd round. 

    #68 Overall

    Troy Andersen – LB – Montana State

    Andersen’s versatility and FCS production may only be matched by his intangibles, but he’ll need to improve his play strength and continue growing his defensive comfortability to become more than a quality, position-fluid backup and special teamer.

    A dominant FCS linebacker who has repeatedly dominated in different draft events. Yes, please.

    Phidarian Mathis – DT – Alabama

    Mathis’ excellent length and consistent snap-to-whistle effort will get him playing time at the next level, but he’ll need to better utilize that length and improve the power in his lower half to become the three-down starter his tools suggest he could be.

    Mathis’ high work rate and competitiveness have led to excellent Total Points Ratings in both the run and pass game.

    #80 Overall

    Isaiah Spiller – RB – Texas A&M

    Spiller is a playmaker who has the vision, speed, and COD ability to become an all-down player at the next level, though he’ll need to shore up the ball-security mistakes and improve in pass pro to hit his full potential.

    Rather than a revolving door of veterans, the Texans can take a local hero and make him a centerpiece of an offense void of young talent.

    Ed Ingram – OG – LSU

    Ingram is gap-scheme-specific, and his limited athletic ability and finesse traits could hold him back if misutilized, but his pulling prowess, point-of-attack tenacity and power, and pass pro awareness should make him a starting-caliber NFL guard.

    The Texans’ usage of a gap-scheme running front gives them a valuable startable guard in Ingram, one that other teams can’t fit as well.

    To learn more about the Texans and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS: Denver Broncos

    NFL Draft Pick AnalySIS:
    Denver Broncos

    The State of the Broncos:

    The Broncos have put together some solid, young pieces over the past few years, such as Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy, and Patrick Surtain II. With a solid roster, they’ve seemed to be just a quarterback away. After an injury-decimated season in 2020, they went and got Teddy Bridgewater to compete with Drew Lock. Unfortunately, they had another injury-decimated season in 2021. 

    However, with an offseason trade for Russell Wilson, things are looking back up in Denver. Now that they have their quarterback, one more strong draft class could help push them over the edge in the AFC West. Even without a 1st-round pick, they still have plenty of picks in this draft. Let’s take a look at some options the Broncos should look into on Day 2.

    #64 Overall

    Tre McBride – TE – Colorado State

    McBride has the hands, catch radius and body control as a receiver with the willingness and competitiveness as a blocker to start at the next level, but inconsistent separation skills and run block effectiveness could hold him back.

    The trade of Noah Fant brings uncertainty to the tight end room in terms of receiving. McBride is a hometown kid who would fill that need and please the fanbase.

    Chad Muma – LB – Wyoming

    Muma is an explosive player with ideal size and a motor that does not quit in order to make splash plays and contribute as a core special teamer, but he needs to refine his skills to make a consistent impact in all areas.

    Muma is a versatile linebacker who will bring speed and range to the 2nd level of the Broncos defense, as he can learn behind Josey Jewell and then step in once his contract is up.

    Nik Bonitto – Edge – Oklahoma

    Bonitto is an athletic, rangy, bendy pass rusher who should excel at getting to the passer with his lack of strength and run game stoutness limiting him to just third downs early in his career at the next level.

    Denver’s pass rush seemed to weaken after the Von Miller trade happened. Bonitto is an athletic pass rusher who has a lot of upside and can be paired opposite of Bradley Chubb.

    #75 Overall

    Abraham Lucas – OT – Washington State

    Lucas is a big-bodied technician that wins with savvy and anticipation on the edge, though his lack of strength and athleticism will prevent him from being a consistent starter.

    Right tackle is still a question mark and Garrett Bolles isn’t getting any younger. So, Lucas would be a good swing tackle to bring versatility and depth to the tackle position with the hope he can take over when the time comes.

    Sean Rhyan – OT – UCLA

    Rhyan is strong and powerful, generating push in the run game and using accurate hand placement in pass pro, but heavy feet, a lack of quickness, and the inability to redirect against pass rushers pencil him in as a backup swing tackle.

    Rhyan is another swing tackle option who can even bump down to guard. With the question marks at right tackle, he could come in and be a solid backup and even fight for the job as a rookie.

    Greg Dulcich – TE – UCLA

    Dulcich isn’t the shiftiest route runner or most technically refined run blocker, but he’s a converted wide receiver with good competitive toughness and the strong all-around skill set of a potential starter.

    Dulcich still needs to improve his blocking, but he already has plus catching and RAC skills. A player who could develop into a complete tight end would be welcomed after the Fant trade.

    #96 Overall

    Alontae Taylor – CB – Tennessee

    Taylor has the speed, physicality, and cover skills to make an impact at the next level, with improvement playing off, with his transition, and his overall tackling ability in order to work himself into a starting role.

    Taylor fits the Cover-2 zone scheme the Broncos are likely to run. Not only does he have the speed and ball skills to make plays against the pass, but he’s also a willing run supporter.

    Justyn Ross – WR – Clemson

    Ross has the combination of size, athleticism, and quick-twitch to contribute in a variety of ways in a receiving room at the next level, but must overcome injury and production concerns to do so.

    Before Ross’s injury in 2020, he looked like a potential No. 1 receiver. While he still has starting-level traits, he’d be a perfect fit in the slot right away and help give Russell Wilson more firepower at the position.

    Kerby Joseph – S – Illinois

    Joseph is a rangy, ball-hawking deep safety who has the smarts and skills to be a starter at the next level, though he’ll become more of a threat if he gets a little more physical and is willing to mix it up more often.

    Joseph is the speedy, rangy safety that teams look for who will fit perfectly into the team’s 2-high scheme, and he can even roam as the single-high or drop down into the slot given the play call.

    To learn more about the Broncos and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • Evaluating Our Evaluations: How our Scouting Grades Have Fared So Far

    Evaluating Our Evaluations: How our Scouting Grades Have Fared So Far

    At SIS, we use a role-based grading scale for draft prospects. That means that we’re not as concerned about what round you should select a player; instead, we focus on the mix between the overall quality of the player and the kind of role he could take for an NFL franchise.

    Our grades are meant to be taken as a projection for the player by their second NFL season. There is a bit more detail than this, but as a rough guide, you can think of our grading scale this way:

    Grade Range Rough Description % of grades from 2019-21
    7.0-9.0 Blue Chip / All Pro 2%
    6.7-6.9 Strong Starter 17%
    6.5-6.6 Situational Starter 17%
    6.2-6.4 Role Player 36%
    6.1 or below Backup 28%


    These grade ranges, if calibrated appropriately, should bear themselves out in terms of both playing time and performance on the field. This might seem like an obvious thing to say, but it’s important when you’re in the business of analysis to check your assumptions and make sure they’re valid!

    The intent is, naturally, to project players accurately. But there are always players who find themselves in particularly good or bad situations in terms of playing time, so sticking too close to the starter/backup distinction is a bit rigid.

    Let’s take a few different angles and see how these grading ranges relate to NFL outcomes.

    For all of the below, I’ll be using results from the last three draft classes. I’ll also be lumping in the players with grades of 7.0 or higher with the group below, because that group is too small to analyze on its own (and small enough that it won’t bias the result).

    In the case of the 2021 class, they haven’t had a chance to play their second season, which means they haven’t had as much opportunity to make an impact. As a result, it’s fair to assume that we’re slightly underestimating the value of our grades by including these players. The 2021 quarterback class is a particularly apt example, given the mix of subpar opportunity and performance from all but Mac Jones.

    Relating Pre-Draft Grade to NFL Playing Time
    Here we’re taking the grade ranges from above and looking at how often players in each group get on the field. This is on a per-season basis to put the 2021 draftees on an even playing field, and uses position-specific quartiles that account for differences in typical snap counts by position.


    Per-Season Snap Count Percentiles, 2019-21 Draftees’ First Two Seasons

    Grade Range > 25% > 50% > 75%
    Strong Starter (6.7+) 82% 73% 50%
    Situational Starter (6.5-6.6) 68% 41% 22%
    Role Player (6.2-6.4) 47% 28% 9%
    Backup (6.1 or lower) 37% 19% 6%


    You can see that there are nice monotonic relationships. The top graded players are multiple times more likely to achieve snap counts in the 75th percentile than anyone with less rosy grades. Those graded as situational starters are more likely to be below the median than above it. And players with role player or backup grades are more likely to be in the bottom quartile than the upper three quartiles.

    It’s very likely that part of the reason that the players with “strong starter” grades are so much more likely to get substantial playing time is that teams are more likely to give top draft picks more opportunities. After all, two-thirds of those players have been drafted in the first two rounds—and nearly all of the players with a 6.9 grade or higher.

    Relating Pre-Draft Grade to NFL Performance
    To the previous point, it’s insufficient to judge a pick on playing time. So let’s take a similar angle, but instead use the player’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) per play.

    Analogous to the above, we’ll look at the odds of a player not making it onto the field, playing but being a sub-replacement contributor (i.e. recording a below-zero WAR), and being a solid contributor (i.e. recording an above-average WAR).

    Breakdown of performance of NFL draft prospects over the last three classes. In general, players with starting grades from SIS bomb out much less and have above-average results much more.

    Once again, we come to the encouraging conclusion that higher grades yield better NFL outcomes. But the picture is muddier this time around.

    In contrast to the rather dramatic and consistent trend for playing time, the relationship between pre-draft grade and performance is less stark. In particular, we find that there is a larger gap in per-play performance between the starter and backup grades than between the different backup-level grades. Higher grades correspond most strongly with getting onto the field and with being above average, but there are plenty of examples of sub-par performance regardless of the scouting grade.

    Takeaways and Next Steps

    We’re still in the early days of our scouting operation, but so far we are doing a good job in projecting a player’s likelihood of making an NFL impact. Keep an eye on a player’s grade within that range of 6.2 to 6.9, because the outcomes for that middle-to-upper-middle class of players can vary quite a bit. We can see an effect not only in playing time but also in performance.

    As discussed on the Off the Charts Podcast, we are really excited to look at this with more seasons of data and more targeted analysis of the value of specific positional factors. Players often land in spots that don’t allow them to achieve their projection (think Jordan Love in Green Bay as an extreme example), so we want to be able to make additional adjustments beyond taking the sample of draftees as a whole.

  • SIS NFL Draft Picks AnalySIS: Detroit Lions

    SIS NFL Draft Picks AnalySIS:
    Detroit Lions

    The State of the Lions:

    The Lions seem to have finally found the right combination of GM and Head Coach. While their record didn’t show it, the team competed and was in most games during 2021. Brad Holmes’ first draft class was a success, highlighted by Penei Sewell falling to No. 7.

    The roster is still in rough shape and has plenty of holes, but another good draft class in 2022 could really set this team up well for a run with strong, young talent as early as 2023. Some of the biggest needs are getting pass rush and secondary help on the defensive side and receiver help on offense. With four picks in the first 66 selections, they have a chance to pick up some solid talent. 

    #2 Overall

    Aidan Hutchinson – Edge – Michigan

    Hutchinson is the ideal modern NFL edge with a special blend of pass rush skills, athleticism, strength, hand use, and competitiveness that will make him a cornerstone player for an NFL franchise.

    There is still a ton of uncertainty with the No. 1 pick. If Hutchinson isn’t the pick, the Lions would be wise to go for the “hometown” player and grab Hutchinson, who should have no issue producing double-digit sack totals early in his career.

    Kayvon Thibodeaux – Edge – Oregon

    Thibodeaux is a game-changing pass rusher and strong run defender who plays with heavy hands and good leverage, though he needs to improve his flexibility and run a hotter motor to become a more complete player.

    If Hutchinson is gone, Thibodeaux is a great, next-best option. He’s arguably one of the most talented players in this draft class and has game-changing ability in both the pass and run games.

    Kyle Hamilton – S – Notre Dame

    Hamilton is a versatile safety who impacts all three levels of the field and is a rangy playmaker with the cover skills, speed, and athleticism to be an elite-level defender against both the run and pass.

    Not many players are 6’4”, 220 lbs. and can run, range, and locate the ball like he can. Hamilton would bring true athleticism to a secondary that desperately needs it.

    #32 Overall

    Matt Corral – QB – Ole Miss

    Corral is a mobile quarterback with great pocket awareness and athletic ability, but he must refine his spot-on accuracy to all levels and decision-making skills in order to become a reason you win games in the NFL.

    While QB isn’t out of the question at No. 2, it feels like it would make more sense at No. 32. If Corral is still around, he’s a great developmental option who has a quick release and some dual-threat ability.

    George Pickens – WR – Georgia

    Pickens is a big-bodied, big-play threat whose hands, tracking ability and competitiveness will make him a consistent contributor, especially once he learns an NFL route tree and if he becomes more dynamic after the catch.

    The receiving corps needs one more big-play option, and Pickens could be that guy. His blend of size, speed, and athleticism is rare.

    David Ojabo – Edge – Michigan

    Ojabo is an excellent athlete with the speed, range, bend, and flexibility to be a force as a pass-rush specialist, but he needs to get stronger and just see more reps in order to develop into an all-around player at the next level.

    Ojabo was poised to go much higher than here before the unfortunate Pro Day injury. Taking him here gives the team a 5th-Year Option on a player who likely will be “redshirting” his rookie year anyway.

    #34 Overall

    Christian Watson – WR – North Dakota State

    Watson is a quality receiver with the ability to take the top off the defense on any given snap, but needs to get stronger, improve his route running, and separate better in order to hit his potential.

    Another receiver with a solid blend of size, speed, and athleticism, if he transfers his skill set to the NFL game he could be a solid piece moving forward.

    Quay Walker – LB – Georgia

    Walker’s ability to defend the run and play in zone coverage make him an intriguing prospect at his size and athletic profile, and if he can continue to improve his instincts, he has the potential to be a high-level starter at the next level.

    Linebacker seems to have been a need for Detroit for years. Walker, one of the three Georgia linebackers, is versatile and can excel in both the run and pass game.

    Lewis Cine – S – Georgia

    Cine has very good tracking and ball skills with the speed and smarts to play on the back end, but his inconsistencies in run support and as a tackler may hold him back from reaching his full potential.

    Cine is a versatile playmaker who flies all over the field and isn’t afraid to lay a big hit, something the new coaching staff craves.

    #66 Overall

    Nik Bonitto – Edge – Oklahoma

    Bonitto is an athletic, rangy, bendy pass rusher who should excel at getting to the passer with his lack of strength and run game stoutness limiting him to just third downs early in his career at the next level.

    The Lions need pass rush help. Bonitto is an athletic pass rusher who, once he gets a little bigger and stronger, will be a great option to stand up on the edge in Detroit.

    Leo Chenal – LB – Wisconsin

    Chenal is a fantastic athlete, a jackhammer in the run game, and an impactful blitzer against the pass, but he needs more coverage experience and quicker instincts to reach a true three-down, three-level ceiling.

    Chenal is your classic thumping Mike linebacker. He needs to improve in coverage, but he’s going to play hard, play fast, and attack the line of scrimmage. Will fit perfectly into this locker room.

    Cole Strange – OG – Chattanooga

    Strange has the reactive athleticism to mirror defenders, consistent leg drive to move them, and the nastiness to finish through the whistle, but he’ll need to improve his balance, footwork, and awareness to maximize his potential.

    While the Lions offensive line is in one of the better places it’s been in for a while, it never hurts to have depth. Strange is no stranger to playing multiple positions, and will fit in as a perfect interior backup.

    To learn more about the Lions and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft Picks AnalySIS:Minnesota Vikings

    NFL Draft Picks AnalySIS:
    Minnesota Vikings

    The State of the Vikings:

    The Minnesota Vikings have a new head coach, Kevin O’Connell, and a new general manager, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, looking to establish their new regime with a strong draft. The Vikings switched to a 3-4 defense, and while their edge pairing is strong, they need some reinforcements along the defensive line and at cornerback. Their offense is essentially set at the skill positions, but their offensive line could still use some work, particularly at guard.

    #12 Overall

    Derek Stingley Jr. – CB – LSU

    Stingley has the man coverage, athleticism, and ball skills to be an NFL defense’s No. 1 cornerback, but his injury history and dip in on-field production since his freshman year are concerns that need to be vetted.

    The Vikings have a glaring need at cornerback and have a former All-Pro in Patrick Peterson to help mold Stingley into the high-upside player he can become.

    Kyle Hamilton – S – Notre Dame

    Hamilton is a versatile safety who impacts all three levels of the field and is a rangy playmaker with the cover skills, speed, and athleticism to be an elite-level defender against both the run and pass.

    Hamilton has been falling in recent projections, but he adds a ton of value on the back end of a defense and if the Vikings aren’t sold on Camryn Bynum as Harrison Smith’s running mate, the fellow Fighting Irishman offers a ton of value.

    #46 Overall

    DeMarvin Leal – DT – Texas A&M

    Leal is an athletic and agile defensive lineman at his size, who offers great versatility as a pass rusher but needs to work on his interior run defense to keep that flexibility on all three downs.

    With the Vikings moving to a 3-4, they need quality 5-techs who can handle the linemen and allow Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith to rush the passer. Leal could be a great fit with quality run defenders all around him to help take some of the run burden off his shoulders.

    Skyy Moore – WR – Western Michigan

    Moore is a lightning-quick receiver with room to grow and the innate skills that allow him to be a dynamic playmaker for a creative offense at the next level, especially if his refinement and development go as planned.

    Kevin O’Connell usually had three high-end receivers to work with while in Los Angeles and adding Moore to the Vikings offense would take them to another level. While K.J. Osborn did well in the role last year, Moore gives Cousins another explosive playmaker to utilize.

    #77 Overall

    Cole Strange – OG – Chattanooga

    Strange has the reactive athleticism to mirror defenders, consistent leg drive to move them, and the nastiness to finish through the whistle, but he’ll need to improve his balance, footwork, and awareness to maximize his potential.

    The Vikings had a revolving door of revolving doors at right guard last year, and Cole Strange could be a great fit. A small-school player who has the athleticism to work in a zone scheme and some much-needed nastiness.

    Greg Dulcich – TE – UCLA

    Dulcich isn’t the shiftiest route runner or most technically refined run blocker, but he’s a converted wide receiver with good competitive toughness and the strong all-around skill set of a potential starter.

    One of the underrated players on the Vikings’ 2021 team was Tyler Conklin, and with him moving on to the Jets, the Vikings could look for his replacement here. Pairing him with Irv Smith would give the Vikings flexibility and keep their offensive dynamic.

    To learn more about the Vikings and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.