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  • Reintroducing FieldingBible.com

    By Jon Becker

    One of Sports Info Solutions owner John Dewan’s first and most impactful innovations was his creation of The Fielding Bible, which has published four volumes since the inception of Defensive Runs Saved in 2003. DRS and The Fielding Bible have been at the forefront of fielding analytics for over a decade and a half now, with DRS now appearing on the player pages at FanGraphs. And so, we are thrilled to announce the relaunch of FieldingBible.com!

    There are many sources and nuggets of information on the website, including past Fielding Bible Award winners and the Fielding Bible FAQ, which discusses the components of Defensive Runs Saved in great and easy-to-digest detail. But, if the numbers are your thing, the Statistics page is the place for you. Let’s take a look at what we think are the three best and most commonly used pages on that tab.

    DRS Leaderboard

    Want to know which outfielder has saved the most run with his arm? How about which fielder has the best combination of range and positioning? Or maybe you just want to know who the best player is across the board? The DRS Leaderboard can do all of that and more. Here are examples of some things you can find just by playing around with the filters at the top of the page and the sorting feature on the table (sort by a column by clicking on the column heading):

    • Padres catcher Austin Hedges has 11 Strike Zone Runs Saved this year, five more than the next-closest catcher (Buster Posey)
    • Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons has 188 Total Runs Saved since 2010, over twice as many as the next-best shortstop (Brandon Crawford, 78)
    • From 2003 until his career ended in 2008, Greg Maddux led all pitchers with 41 Range and Positioning DRS

    Fielding Bible Range & Positioning

    This page is where you can look even more in-depth at the Range & Positioning component of DRS. This includes looking at how a player performs depending on which direction he has to move, how a pitcher is at holding runners, or how many opportunities an outfielder has had to throw runners out on the bases, among many other things. Here are some more tidbits from that page:

    • The aforementioned Maddux was excellent at making plays to his right (+39 Plays Saved) and straight on (+16) over the last 6 years of his career, but was almost neutral (+1) to his left (meaning: along the first base side).
    • Dodgers right fielder and DRS darling Cody Bellinger has already accrued 19 Bases Saved in right this year, while runners have only taken nine extra bases on him in 38 opportunities (24%)
    • In his 2004 Gold Glove season, future Hall of Fame shortstop Derek Jeter posted a Plays Saved of -24 on plays to his right (balls in the shortstop-third base hole); he managed +7 in the final season of his career, 2014

    Fielding Bible Runs Saved

    This page is similar to the Fielding Bible Range & Positioning page, except that it gives a much more basic, zoomed-out view of a player’s performance by position and by season. If you’re only interested in the individual components of DRS, rather than the sub-components, this is where you want to be. For example:

    • Cubs infielder Javier Baez won the 2018 Fielding Bible Award for Multi-Position players; that year, his value was pretty evenly distributed (2 DRS as a 3B, 5 as 2B, 3 as SS)
    • Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto spent much of the offseason working on his pitch-framing, and that shows in the data; his Strike Zone Runs Saved was -2 in 2018 and is up to +1 this year. His 10 Runs Saved overall ranks second among catchers.
    • Athletics 3B and 2018 Fielding Bible winner Matt Chapman was elite at fielding bunts last season. He had 3 Bunt Runs Saved, most in MLB.

    We hope you enjoy the new FieldingBible.com!

     

  • A treetop view of what an MLB outfield needs

    By Jonah King

    When baseball teams construct their rosters, there are specific molds that players fall into based upon their position. Look across the league and you’ll notice most infield players have a certain build based upon their position. First basemen are tall and strong, built to hit the ball for miles. Shortstops are strong-armed, lean, and are able to react at a lightning-fast pace to track a ball lasered in their radius.

    There are always exceptions, but exceptions are mere circumstance when a player is exceptional despite a difference in genetic or physical makeup. The infield generally has a uniformity to it. The outfield is the wild west. It’s home to power sluggers like Bryce Harper and Joey Gallo, yet it also has room for defensive specialists like Ender Inciarte and Billy Hamilton.

    Ideally, every team would like to have a Mookie Betts or an Aaron Judge who combine defensive excellence with elite power and contact, but players of their stature are outliers. Generational talent is rare, and either you have one or you’re everybody else and your outfield combines fielding prowess and power.

    Most outfields will have their fielding specialist in center field. Left and right is where teams will stash their power guys if they have the luxury and ideal ballpark dimensions.

    To get a state of league outfielders, I compiled a list of every team’s starting outfielders (playing 60+ games) and gave each player a classification of either “fielding” or “power”. The classification was based upon a player’s perceived value to a team based upon statistics from previous seasons. The AL has nine more fielding based players versus power players while the NL has four more power players as compared to fielders.

    If a player has exceptional power and fielding ability, they are in the anomaly category. This exclusive club’s members: Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jr., Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger (78 games at CF). Three in the NL, three in the AL. If you had an anomaly player in your outfield, you had a winning record unless your team was the Angels. Sorry, Mike Trout. Speaking of Trout, he is the only one of that group to be a true center fielder.

    So let’s talk roster construction and which teams have valuable ideas terms of their outfield corp. There are 24 teams without a generational talent in their outfield. How can you find value on the margins within a limited budget in a smaller market? The answer might be within this year’s iteration of the Minnesota Twins.

    The Twins outfield this season has been a defensive haven. Byron Buxton is a yearly Gold Glover in center field. Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario might not be known defensive stalwarts, but they are making a difference on the defensive end this season. Rosario continues to contribute with his bat, but it’s been Kepler who has taken the next step up in terms of run production. Kepler is second on his team in wRC+.

    A healthy Buxton, the consistency of Rosario, and the emergence of Max Kepler. The equations equal out to three difficult outs at the plate, and runs being saved on the defensive side. Surprise AL MVP candidate Jorge Polanco and an inspired Jake Odorizzi immediately jump out on the stat sheet but this three-headed dragon outfield is who the Twins will rely upon to make a pennant run.

    One last note on the Twins is the age of their outfielders. Buxton is 25, Kepler is 26, and Rosario is 27. They are all at their athletic peak while also having room to develop their games. The Twins outfield is balanced in terms of fielding and hitting ability, but it’s achieving at a higher level than most balanced outfields by the quality of the players.

    The Phillies had the purest power-focused lineup last season and doubled down by moving Hoskins to the infield and replacing him with the immaculate Bryce Harper. The Phillies’ one defensive move was to add McCutchen in the twilights of his career who unfortunately has been lost recently to injury.

    The Phillies want to outscore you if they can’t outpitch you. Harper has reverted back to being an average defensive outfielder but the question the Phillies were struggling to answer was who was going to play with Harper. Enter another big bat in Jay Bruce. The Phillies’ power outfield formula may not be the perfect answer to building the league’s best outfield, but if they find success in this model, it’s an intriguing way to construct a roster.

    The Rangers are another ball club like the Phillies who have invested in power over speed in their outfield. They welcomed Hunter Pence’s still productive bat paired up with Shin-Soo Choo’s and Joey Gallo’s. There’s still some fielding quality in center with Delino DeShields but it’s been Gallo who’s saved the most runs defensively.

    The Padres could be the next Twins of next year if their outfield produces at the potential it contains. With options between Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot, and Franmil Reyes, the Padres are looking good if three players take a step up or leap in ability. If that group doesn’t pan out, the Padres still have a young promising power bat in Josh Naylor and Franchy Cordero eyeing a starting spot. Like the Twins are winning with youth, the Padres will have to rely on the same, especially in their outfield.

    The debate over which positions are the most valuable is a circular argument. The best teams are stacked with talent everywhere. But is there a surefire answer for how teams should build their outfields? The classic model of having a great fielder in center and power in the corner outfields is ideal. It can’t be discounted though that there are valuable fielders who can still produce.

    If there’s any grand statement to make about what type of outfielders you want your roster built around, the discussion revolves around whether your outfielders hit at a high level. Having the power production is ideal, but a lineup of three capable hitters in your outfield is a base recipe for success.

     

  • Inside the numbers on Urshela’s improvements

    By Joe Conklin

    A couple of weeks ago, Yankees third baseman Giovanny Urshela was facing hard-throwing Mets pitcher Zack Wheeler in the fourth inning of a Subway Series matchup. On an 0-1 pitch, Urshela crushed a 96-MPH four-seam fastball on the inner-third. He hit it 405 feet with an exit velocity (per Statcast) of 105.7 MPH.

    That home run wasn’t just helpful in a Yankees’ comeback win. It showed how far Urshela has come.

    Urshela has been performing well above his career numbers so far this year at the plate. In looking at the causes of his success at the plate, here are some interesting numbers I uncovered.

    Urshela has the reputation of a great defender and a below-average hitter. In 2015 and 2017, which are comparable in at bats and games to this year, his batting average was .225 and .224 respectively.

    Through Sunday, his batting average this season is .306. In some of the advanced stats he is also outperforming his 2015 and 2017 results by a lot.

    Urshela’s BABIP (batting average on ball in play) is .336, almost 100 points higher this year than his 2015 and 2017 years.

    Why the drastic increase in BABIP? Urshela’s hard and soft contact percentage have drastically changed this year.

    Probably the most telling statistic for his offensive increase is Urshela’s hard-contact percentage (Hard%). This is the percentage of time that a hitter makes hard contact on a batted ball. In 2015 and 2017, his hard-hit percentage was 22% and 24% respectively.

    In 2019, his rate of batted balls that are hard hit is 46%, over a 20-point increase from the previous comparable years. The batting average for all of baseball for Hard% contact is .526.

    His soft contact percentage (Soft%, which how often one of his batted balls was hit with low velocity and an unfavorable landing spot) in 2015 and 2017 was about 20%. Soft contact usually always ends in an out for the batter — the batting average for Soft% is .153 for all of Major League Baseball in 2019.

    In 2019, Urshela’s Soft% in is 8%, both a dramatic decrease from previous seasons and the lowest in the majors this season.

    Pairing his increase in Hard% with his decrease in Soft%, it makes sense he’s gotten better results.

    Urshela is also outperforming his previous year’s results on fastballs as well as pitches that are on the inner third of the strike zone.

    His average and slugging percentage are over 100 points higher than his 2017 and 2015 years.

     

    2015 2017 2019
    BA/Slug Pct vs Fastballs .216/.306 .267/.320 .342/.507
    BA/Slug Pct vs Inside Pitches .261/.326 .220/.322 .346/.654

    One interesting statistic that is unusual for major league hitters is that Urshela has been quite good when he’s behind in the count (as he was versus Wheeler).

    For example, he’s hitting .319 with three home runs in at-bats that end with counts of 0-1 (as the homer versus Wheeler was) or 1-2. He was a .207 hitter in those counts prior to this season.

    In the past, Urshela has been known largely for his glove, but this season his bat his outperformed his mitt. In fact, he’s at -3 Defensive Runs Saved this season, slightly below average for a third baseman. The perception of Urshela as a great defender may be due to a few terrific plays. But overall, he has not shown the success of an elite fielder, like Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado.

    However, if Urshela continues to hit the ball as hard as he has so far this season, he will continue to fill the void left at 3B when the Yankees lost Miguel Andujar for the season.

    Even with his -3 DRS he will still be an upgrade over Andujar who had a -25 DRS in 2018 and possibly provide just as much value with the bat.

  • The Effect of Outfield Position Changes on DRS

    The Effect of Outfield Position Changes on DRS

    By Andrew Kyne

    In 2018, Charlie Blackmon cost the Rockies 28 runs in center field, the worst Defensive Runs Saved mark in MLB. Of those 28 runs, 21 were lost by way of the Range & Positioning component of DRS. The only outfielder to cost his team more runs via Range & Positioning alone was Adam Jones (-25), then with the Orioles.

    Both Jones (now with Arizona) and Blackmon have been moved from center field to right field in 2019. And thus far, their defensive results — while still slightly below average — have been better. Both are at -3 DRS (about -6 per 1,000 innings).

    The numerical improvement as they move out of center field makes sense. DRS rates players relative to others at their position. They may have rated poorly among center fielders — but there are a lot of defensively-talented center fielders, and not as many defensively-talented corner outfielders. This idea is what constitutes the framework of positional adjustments for Wins Above Replacement.

    Let’s take a look at these positional effects with DRS. How do center fielders rate when they move to a corner? How do corner outfielders rate when they move to center?

    Dating back to when DRS began in 2003, I took all outfielders who played at least 700 innings (about half a season) at a position in one year and 700 innings at a different position the next year. I calculated each player’s Range & Positioning Runs Saved per 1,000 innings.

    Here are the differences in Year 1 and Year 2 Range & Positioning Runs Saved per 1,000 for outfielders who moved from center field to a corner spot:

    Of these 30 players, only four rated worse on a per-inning basis in Range & Positioning after moving to LF or RF. The average (represented by the dashed line) has been an improvement of 8 runs.

    That’s a lot.

    A player who can shift positions and perform better gives a team the flexibility to add a defender at his previous position that could be better than he was.

    Here are the differences for outfielders who moved from a corner to center, an understandably smaller sample:

    Of these 19 players, only five improved on a per-inning basis. The average has been a decline of 7 runs.

    And let’s also look at players who moved from one corner to the other:

    While there’s variation among these 23 players, the average difference is almost zero.

    There are various other factors that affect year-to-year performance, including aging and ballpark effects. And while the samples are fairly small, there’s an obvious numerical impact on moving an outfielder into or out of center field. We’re seeing that with Charlie Blackmon and Adam Jones, who should finish 2019 with much better DRS numbers than they did in 2018.

  • Who’s Hit More Homers Than Expected? Fewer?

    By Jon Becker

    Every batter loves hitting home runs, and every pitcher hates giving them up. On the flip side, hitting a ball to the warning track or knowing you “just missed it” as a hitter is surely infuriating while inducing a sigh of relief on the mound. On the scoreboard and in the basic stat logs, home runs are home runs, and outs are outs. But, with the help of batted ball data, SIS is able to assign an expected value on each ball in play. 

    This is similar to Statcast’s expected stats, though different inputs are used. Ours consider where the ball was hit and how far it was hit.

    For example, let’s take an absolute no-doubt home run: a ball in play that, based on ball speed, trajectory and location, will always be a home run. Something like this Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run. This is basically a home run anywhere. And since it actually was a home run, the difference between his actual home runs and his expected home runs for that at-bat was zero.

    Then you get wall-scrapers, like this Jason Heyward home run from earlier this week. So, he hit one more home run than expected. If the expected home run value had been, say, 0.05, he would have hit 0.95 more home runs than expected.

    If a player hit a well-struck ball that was caught at the warning track (or was any other result besides a home run) that had an expected home run value of 0.75, he would have hit 0.75 fewer home runs than expected for that plate appearance. So, to end up with a player’s season total, we add up their actual home run totals, and then subtract out their expected home run totals.

    First, let’s take a look at who’s sneaking more balls over the fence than we think they should be:

    PlayerTeamActual HRExpected HRDifference
    Rhys HoskinsPhillies149.84.2
    Alex BregmanAstros1813.94.1
    Hunter PenceRangers1410.13.9
    Jesse WinkerReds106.43.6
    Clint FrazierYankees117.53.4
    Gleyber TorresYankees1410.53.4

    And now, some hitters who are hitting the ball well quite often but not getting to trot around the bases as much as we’d expect them to:

    PlayerTeamActual HRExpected HRDifference
    Adam JonesDiamondbacks1216.2-4.4
    Brandon BeltGiants912.7-3.8
    Josh BellPirates1922.7-3.7
    Paul GoldschmidtCardinals1215.4-3.4
    Josh
    Donaldson    		Braves912.0-3.0
    Joe PanikGiants35.9-2.8

    When looking at the hitters’ names in isolation, there isn’t really much of a pattern as to who’s on the first table versus the second. Hoskins and Bregman are both well-known for raw power; so too are Goldschmidt and Donaldson. Winker isn’t exactly known for being a slugger; neither is Panik. But, when digging deeper, with plenty of help from video of the balls in play, we can see an obvious trend: the ballpark matters!

    Take a look at this home run that Hoskins hit off of Diamondbacks closer Greg Holland earlier this week. Yes, it went 365 feet and went at least five rows into the stands, but it was just under 99 miles per hour off the bat; he clearly didn’t get all of it. It looked like a more impressive home run than it was because of the ballpark and hit location, but the reality of the matter is that it wouldn’t have even been a home run at every ballpark.

    Now let’s watch a clip of Panik hitting a double. He hit that pretty well! In fact, it was just three miles per hour slower off the bat than Hoskins’ round-tripper. But, unfortunately for the Giants’ second baseman, his own home ballpark let him down.

    Oracle Park is well-known for its jet stream knocking down fly balls, and if you look closely, you can see that those flags above the wall are indeed blowing in a bit. And, of course, there’s the height of the wall itself; at 25 feet, it’s the tallest right field wall in the majors. And so, despite a high expected home run value (higher than two of his three home runs this season), Panik had to settle for two bases.

    There are so many variables that go into hitting a home run. Next time you see one sail just over the fence, ask yourself: how fortunate was the hitter to have hit that one?

  • Stat of the Week: Kevin Kiermaier’s amazing Defensive Runs Saved total

    Stat of the Week: Kevin Kiermaier’s amazing Defensive Runs Saved total

    By Mark Simon

    By now you know just how good Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays is in center field. He frequently amazes with great plays, chasing down fly balls all around the major leagues. The biggest issue with his game is in how often he’s been on the field, as he’s frequently dealt with injuries.

    But this season, Kiermaier has been healthy enough to save 11 runs, which ranks second among players at his position. With that, he’s moved into the top 10 in overall Defensive Runs Saved since the stat began being tracked in 2003.

    Kiermaier has more than 3,000 fewer innings played than anyone else in the top 10. If you prorate Kiermaier’s numbers, he’s averaging nearly 26 Runs Saved per 1,000 innings. Next-best among anyone on this list is Angels’ shortstop Andrelton Simmons, who is averaging 22 Runs Saved per 1,000.

    A check of Kiermaier’s player page at the relaunched FieldingBible.com shows that he is going for his fifth straight season finishing among the top center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved. You can see that a large part of Kiermaier’s value comes in tracking down fly balls hit to the deepest parts of the outfield.

    D6sHcNTWsAAWy-A.jpg:large

    Kiermaier made 53 more plays than the average center fielder would have made against the deep balls Kiermaier saw from 2015 to 2018, including three straight seasons of at least 10 plays saved. Additionally, you can see that Kiermaier gets supplemental value from both his arm (Throws) and Good Fielding Plays (GFP/DME) such as robbing home runs or cutting balls off in the gap to prevent advancement. You can also see Kiermaier’s season totals (Total) and rank, which show how he’s been consistently great even when he’s missed considerable time.

    Kiermaier isn’t the only active player to move into the top 10. Another center fielder, Lorenzo Cain, has saved 13 runs, the most at the position this season. He’s now in 10th place, just behind Kiermaier.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved
    Since Stat First Tracked in 2003
    Player DRS Innings
    1. Adrian Beltre 222 18,354
    2. Andrelton Simmons 188 8,383
    3. Yadier Molina 167 15,919
    4. Jason Heyward 145 10,735
    5. Chase Utley 141 15,260
    6. Albert Pujols 136 16,146
    T7. Mark Ellis 131 10,956
    T7. Brett Gardner 131 11,282
    9. Kevin Kiermaier 128 4,964
    10. Lorenzo Cain 125 8,009


    SIS has relaunched FieldingBible.com to be your source for defensive metrics and information. The site features daily updates of player stats and provides background on how our stats are collected and calculated.

  • New podcast episode: What does Moneyball look like in 2019?

    In this episode, Sports Info Solutions senior analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by three baseball writers – Susan Slusser (@susanslusser) of the San Francisco Chronicle, Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) of the Tampa Bay Times and Dan Hayes (@DanHayesMLB) of The Athletic.

    Slusser talks about how the Athletics are struggling to match the success of last season, particularly in relief pitching. Topkin discusses how the Rays operate in lock-step, from ownership down. Hayes explains how the Twins found untapped power both from their bats and their arms. Each also shares how the teams they cover find talent on the margins and how much they value defense.

    Mark is also joined by research associate Andrew Kyne, who explains the methodology and shares the results from his study on which teams position their infield best. Mark and Andrew answer listener mail, share who’s getting the best and worst results when they hit the ball hard and close the show with some Ridiculous Stat of the Day trivia. Tune in and play along!

  • Zack Greinke slider not what it once was

    By Eric Fitch

    Since 2015, Zack Greinke ranks 10th in the majors in Fangraphs Pitching WAR (17.1). But after a dominant 2015, Greinke’s pitch performances began to change. His changeup has often been his most effective pitch as opposed to other seasons in which he had that pitch and a great slider.

    Greinke slider began to slightly drop in production following the 2017 season, in which he threw the pitch 715 times, the most in the last five seasons.

    Below, is Greinke’s slash line from his slider in the past three seasons.

    SeasonBASlug PctOPS
    20170.1820.3550.582
    20180.2460.4150.693
    20190.2690.4330.711

    Perhaps Greinke has sensed that his slider isn’t as effective as it used to be. He’s throwing it less often. And it’s getting a lot fewer missed swings and chases.

     

    SeasonMiss RateChase Rate
    201744%50%
    201833%47%
    201924%41%

    Greinke’s solution to this issue has been throwing a slow curveball that seems to fool hitters (.106 opp BA) and maintaining an effective changeup (.171). We’ll see in the next four months if those continue to be effective and if he can figure out how to find value with his slider.

  • MLB’s Best Positioned Infields

    MLB’s Best Positioned Infields

    On the most recent episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast, our guest Joe Sheehan mentioned how teams like the Dodgers and Astros are aggressive in their positioning of defenders, whether they ultimately cross the lines that we draw to measure defensive shifts or not.

    With that in mind, let’s try to measure which teams have put their infielders in the best position to field groundballs.

    As mentioned a few weeks ago, Baseball Info Solutions charts the starting positions of infield defenders on grounders, in addition to batted ball information. Thus, we can calculate both the angle at which the ball was hit and the angle at which the fielders are standing.

    We divide the field into 90 degrees from foul line to foul line. Using the fielder and batted ball information, we can find the angle difference between where the ball was hit and where the closest fielder was standing.

    Since the first baseman will always be positioned near the bag and the other infielders are the ones being moved around, I only evaluated groundballs hit outside the first base area (the rightmost fifth of the infield). Additionally, I only looked at grounders hit at least 100 feet and not fielded by the pitcher or catcher.

    On a league-wide level, this plot shows the rate of getting an out on a play by how far the closest infielder was from the ball (laterally), in terms of angle difference.

    The trend is obvious: the farther your closest infielder is from the ball, the less likely an out is to be recorded.

    Within three degrees of the ball’s path is where the expected out rate climbs north of 85%. So, based on all of the criteria above, which teams have played the highest percentage of groundballs with an infielder within three degrees of the path of the ball?

    The Astros and Dodgers rank in the top ten (as expected), and other shift-heavy teams like the Rays, Pirates, and Yankees rate well. There are exceptions, however; the Cubs don’t shift much at all but have been well positioned, and the Orioles have rapidly increased their shift usage and rank at the bottom.

    But what if teams played with traditional, straight-up positioning on each of these grounders? With that positioning, what percentage of plays would they have an infielder close to the ball, and how does that compare to their actual percentages? Is there a benefit?

    Overall, teams have had a 2B, 3B, or SS within three degrees of the ball on 39% of these plays. If they played with straight-up positioning (using the average angles of infielders on non-shift plays), teams would have been close on 33% of these plays.

    The Diamondbacks have had the most benefit of moving their infielders around. They would have only been close on 30% of plays with traditional positioning, so their actual 41% rate is a significant boost.

    Consider this play from last week, where the Diamondbacks had the Mets’ J.D. Davis played perfectly. The shortstop and third baseman were positioned similarly to league average, but the second baseman moved over to the left side and the ball was hit right to him.

    The Reds (39% actual vs. 28% with traditional), Yankees (43% vs. 33%), Tigers (40% vs. 30%), and Astros (40% vs. 31%) have also gained significant advantages.

    The important takeaway is that nearly every team has had a higher percentage of close plays with their positioning compared to if they just used traditional positioning. The only team slightly worse off has been Boston, and the difference is basically zero (36.6% vs. 37.2%).

    Of course, this doesn’t speak to fielder quality. Range, arm, and other factors are important to out conversion as well. But from a positioning perspective, teams are doing what they can to put infielders in the proper areas to be as close to potential grounders as possible.

  • How does J.T. Realmuto have 10 Defensive Runs Saved?

    By Mark Simon

    There are currently five players with at least 10 Defensive Runs Saved this season. By far, the most surprising of that group is Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has exactly 10. The only catcher with more is Austin Hedges, whose defensive reputation far surpasses Realmuto.

    From 2016 to 2018, Realmuto cost the Marlins 25 runs with his catching. That 25 runs was actually attributable to our Adjusted Earned Runs Saved stat, which involves cross-comparing catcher ERA by starting pitcher with the other catchers on the team.

    For example, in 2016, Marlins pitchers had a 4.23 ERA with Realmuto catching and a 3.28 ERA with Jeff Mathis catching and almost every comparison of pitchers with both catchers favored Mathis, so he got rewarded and Realmuto got penalized. This is part of our stat to account for the game-calling aspect of catching.

    That’s been a non-issue for Realmuto in 2019. Phillies pitchers have a 4.22 ERA with him catching this season and a 4.27 ERA with Andrew Knapp behind the plate. This might not hold up all season, but for now, Realmuto is faring all right. He has 1 Adjusted Earned Run Saved.

    If we look at areas beyond this stat, Realmuto the Marlin doesn’t look as bad. He comes up as someone who was good at deterring basestealers (4 DRS), thwarting bunts (3 DRS), and blocking pitches (3 DRS), but poor at pitch framing (-10 DRS) in that three-season span.

    But now the question becomes – how did he go from this with the Marlins to great with the Phillies? Matt Gelb foreshadowed this with a look at Realmuto’s open-mindedness this spring. Realmuto seems to be following through.

    Stolen Base Runs Saved

    The first is a transformation into Yadier Molina-like status with throwing out baserunners. He’s caught 17-of-37 and has two pickoffs. The 17 caught stealing are three more than he had last season and only five shy of his career high of 22 in 2016.

    By our measures, that equates to seven Stolen Bases Saved, which has been worth 6 Runs Saved. That makes sense given that catching a runner stealing takes a runner out of scoring position.

    Good Fielding Play Runs Saved (Pitch Blocking)

    Our Video Scouts track every pitch a catcher blocks and fails to block in situations which a batter or baserunner can advance. At the end of the season, MLB average is 91 to 92 percent. The top catchers last season were Mathis, then of the Diamondbacks, Tucker Barnhart of the Reds, and Austin Barnes of the Dodgers, all at around 96%.

    Realmuto was at 90.5% — he had 380 successful blocks on 420 pitches. He was a little below average (after having previously rated well). The difference between Realmuto and the best catchers is that he blocked 380, they would have blocked a little more than 400. Twenty extra wild pitches and passed balls over a season costs runs.

    But this season, Realmuto has flipped back to positive form. His block rate is 95.2%. He’s doing well and he’s playing a lot, so as a result, that’s worth 3 Runs Saved.

    Pitch Framing

    Though Realmuto has rated poorly at getting extra strikes, he has been inching up. His Strike Zone Runs Saved totals were -5, -3, and -2 the last three seasons.

    This season, he’s a positive at 1 Run Saved. The difference comes from an improvement in a key area for a catcher – how often does he get a strike on a close pitch?

    For Realmuto, two seasons ago, he had a 15.5% called strike rate on pitches we deemed within two inches of one of the edges of the strike zone. This is a world where 17% is average and the leaders are in the low 20s. Realmuto got to 17% last season. So far in 2019, he’s at 18.2%.

    What’s the difference between his 18.2% now and his 15.5 of two seasons ago?

    Over a full season, Realmuto probably catches 4,000 of these pitches. A 2.7% differential equates to 108 more strikes.

    More strikes mean more favorable situations and more outs for his pitchers. Hence, positivity so far this season, negative numbers in the past.

    Add it all together

    To summarize, Realmuto’s 10 Defensive Runs Saved come from:

    6 for Stolen Bases

    3 for Pitch Blocking

    1 For Pitch Framing

    1 for Game Calling

    -1 for Bunts (which we didn’t discuss, but it’s based on two hits allowed on balls he fielded)

    That gives him 10, a huge improvement both over his past and what the Phillies have had of late. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

    For further breakdowns on Realmuto and other players, check out the SIS Baseball Podcast at this link