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  • Stat of the Week: Scherzer, Strasburg similarities

    By Lindsay Zeck

    The following is an excerpt from a section on Pitcher Repertoires in the 2020 Bill James Handbook, which is on sale now at ACTA Sports and wherever you buy your books.

    Let’s talk about two pitchers, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals. Their career stats have been circulating this season for being nearly identical. Take a look:

    ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 H/9 HR/9
    Max Scherzer 3.20 1.092 10.6 2.4 7.4 1.0
    Stephen Strasburg 3.17 1.086 10.6 2.4 7.4 0.9

    It’s amazing to see the similarities in their career stats, but [in this section of the book] we can look at the pitches they threw this season to see if there are similarities here too.

    Both threw fastballs 48% of the time, with Scherzer edging out Strasburg in velocity by one mile per hour (94.9 to 93.9). It’s in their secondary pitches this season that we begin to see a difference. Scherzer’s was the slider which he threw 21% of the time (it was his most effective pitch), whereas Strasburg threw that pitch less than one percent of the time.

    His secondary pitch was a curveball that he threw 31% of the time with great effectiveness. Scherzer threw a curveball only nine percent of the time. Scherzer and Strasburg align again with their tertiary pitch, the changeup. They threw it 14% and 21% of the time, respectively.

    They have both seen a steady decline in their fastball usage. Scherzer threw the heat 72% of the time during his rookie season. Strasburg’s usage peaked at 73% in 2011—right after his Tommy John surgery.

    Speaking of Tommy John surgery—Scherzer is the only pitcher in the 2019 Nationals starting rotation not to have had it. Along with Strasburg, whose season ended abruptly in 2010, Patrick Corbin, Aníbal Sánchez, and sometimes starter Erick Fedde have all had the surgery. Corbin and Fedde both went under the knife in 2014.

    Scherzer’s career numbers give him a good chance at Hall of Fame enshrinement. We’ll see if Strasburg can pitch well enough in his 30s to someday share a common bond with Scherzer there too.

    For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.

  • Infield Defense in PARTs: A Major Update to Defensive Runs Saved Coming Soon

    A major update is coming soon to Baseball Info Solutions’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) system to improve our evaluation of infield defense.

    Currently, DRS does not account for infielder positioning, thus relying on one “Range & Positioning” component to assess a fielder’s ability to convert batted balls into outs. It also considers shift plays entirely as a team defense, attributing runs saved/lost to the team overall.

    That, however, is about to change. We’ll be breaking the DRS system into PARTs.

    PART stands for Positioning, Air Balls, Range, and Throwing. This new system isolates each of these elements for individual fielders. It also allows us to evaluate how individual players perform defensively in shifts. BIS has been charting pre-pitch infielder positioning since 2013, which makes it possible for positioning to be evaluated.

    Given that positioning is largely controlled by the team rather than individual player, it is now its own separate component. Positioning Runs Saved will be added to the team’s DRS total, but not the individual player’s total. Thus, an infielder’s DRS is now the sum of:

    * His Air Ball Runs Saved
    * His Range Runs Saved
    * His Throwing Runs Saved

    How does this change the way we think about infield defense? We are transitioning from evaluating “how often did a player make that play?” to “how often did a player make that play given where he was positioned?” Additionally, we’re able to evaluate all infield plays, not just ones involving an unshifted defense. The result, we believe, is a more accurate overall depiction of defensive performance.

    How do we actually estimate the effects of positioning? The system evaluates the chance a play would be made without considering fielder positioning (using information about the batted ball’s trajectory, location, and velocity and the batter’s speed) and compares it to the chance it would be made considering those variables and the fielder’s positioning. If a batted ball is estimated to be a high percentage out, but a fielder isn’t close to it, then the team will get penalized in the form of Positioning Runs Saved—but the fielder will not.

    What does all this look like in action? Let’s consider Matt Chapman of the Oakland A’s, one of baseball’s top defensive players.

    The current DRS system awarded him 18 Defensive Runs Saved for 2019. The new system, however, will have him at 34 Defensive Runs Saved. Stripping out positioning and including shift plays gives Chapman a significant boost.

    Here’s the breakdown at how we arrive at the new number:

    * Range Runs Saved: +19
    (+11 in non-shifts, +8 in shifts)

    * Throwing Runs Saved: +11
    (+10 in non-shifts, +1 in shifts)

    * Air Ball Runs Saved: 0

    * Other Runs Saved: +4
    (Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays, Double Plays, Bunts)

    * Total Defensive Runs Saved: +34

    What doesn’t get included here is positioning, and the system calculates that Chapman accumulated -13 Positioning Runs Saved (-10 in non-shifts, -3 in shifts). Again, this number will still be included in the team total, but the individual player will not be penalized for it.

    We can also see the gains for Chapman from including shift plays, as he was +8 for Range and +1 for Throwing in shifts. Even though the A’s shifted the least of any team per BIS charting, that’s a significant Runs Saved total that was previously uncredited to Chapman.

    This data for Chapman and all other Major League players will soon be rolling out on FieldingBible.com, and it will also be featured in The Fielding Bible – Volume V (coming in the spring of 2020) and in The Bill James Handbook 2020 (out November 1).

    Stay tuned for more information and updates regarding this improvement to DRS.

  • Modeling the Subjective: 2019 Gold Glove Awards

    By Chris Weikel and Sam Weber

    The Rawlings Gold Glove, given annually to the MLB players who exhibit superior defensive performances, is a fickle and ever-changing award. Despite how much weight the Gold Glove is granted when discussing Hall of Fame careers, its actual inputs are vague and amorphous. The award has long been voted upon by MLB managers and coaches, but since 2013, in an attempt to combat its subjectivity, the SABR Defensive Index metric has accounted for 25% of the vote.

    This statistic is a combination metric that integrates Ultimate Zone Rating’s (UZR) zone-based method with the hybrid play by play/zone based formula of Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Chris Dial’s Runs Effectively Defended. This change has allowed us to build a model that attempts to predict the award recipients, as we now have enough seasons of winner data under the new criteria.

    Due to the award’s 75% reliance on subjective voters, we first had to test whether any public defensive statistics were actually taken into account by these managers, as they hold the most weight. Below is a visualization for all the Pearson coefficients of major defensive metrics and Gold Glove winners, bucketed into three-year stretches since 2003, the first year that DRS was available.

    The original correlations start out very weak because in 2003 the voters’ buy-in for defensive metrics was almost nonexistent. But as time goes on, they slowly pick up more and more steam, with the 2013 shift to more analytical selection methods marking the final large jump in bucket 2. The current correlations convinced us that modeling this very subjective award is now possible, as long as we also take into account voter biases like previous award winners and flashiness (we used the Good Fielding Play component of DRS for this – SIS Video Scouts reward players for making notable plays that would not be acknowledged in a box score).

    Our final model is a binary logistic regression with variables ranging from the DRS components and UZR (up to September 23) to previous Gold Gloves won. The model also incorporates a Gold Gloves-per-age factor to help weed out aging winners, while adding extra weight to young stars.

    We performed rigorous 10-fold cross validation testing and determined our model to be the best predictor with a .97 sensitivity and .44 specificity. This may seem low, but for the training and validation set, the model does not realize that only one person at each position, in each league, can win each year; it just takes a winner as anyone over a certain probability cutoff set to pick the appropriate proportion of victors for that sample.

    We then filter the winners by probability and delegate the award to the top probability player in each league, at each position, each year who played enough innings to qualify. We excluded both catcher and pitcher as their limited metrics and far more unique defensive requirements require different modeling than the other fielders.

    The MLB uses three finalists to build up suspense, so here are our model’s projected Gold Glove winner and the top three finalists for each award. We also included extra information on the top probability earner.

    NL 1B:

    1. Paul Goldschmidt
    2. Anthony Rizzo
    3. Eric Hosmer

    AL 1B:

    1. Matt Olson
    2. Ronald Guzman
    3. Carlos Santana

    Overall Probability Leader 1B: Matt Olson

    Oakland’s Matt Olson is an artist. He makes an at-times-mundane position, first base, as exciting as shortstop. Anchoring one of the better defensive infields in the league, Olson allows teammates Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien to shine while also making quite a few highlight plays himself.

    He was by far the rangiest first baseman in the league, posting 12 runs saved from the Range and Positioning DRS component alone. Where Rizzo thrives is in handling difficult throws, securing 32 of these attempts for his teammates (second to Pete Alonso’s 33). Rizzo gets a huge bump here, but unfortunately the other aspects of his defense bring him back down to the pack.

    Our model sees Olson’s consistent, across-the-board production and decided it outweighs the previous Gold Glove resumes of Goldschmidt and Rizzo, so it selected him as the top contender.

    NL 2B:

    1. Kolten Wong
    2. Max Muncy
    3. Adam Frazier

    AL 2B:

    1. DJ LeMahieu
    2. Yolmer Sanchez
    3. Hanser Alberto

    Overall Probability Leader 2B: DJ LeMahieu*, Kolten Wong

    Although the Yankees’ DJ LeMahieu was the model’s selection at second base, we decided to discuss the second highest probability winner, Kolten Wong, because of LeMahieu’s significant use this season at multiple other positions, such as first and third. Even though Wong has never won a Gold Glove, he has been seen favorably by DRS. In the past two years, he’s taken a major step forward, accumulating 19 total runs saved last season and 14  this season (his previous high was 9 in 2014). Compared to LeMahieu, he also seems to handle difficult line drive outs well, amassing five of these GFPs compared to LeMahieu’s one at the position:

    NL 3B:

    1. Nolan Arenado
    2. Evan Longoria
    3. Brian Anderson

    AL 3B:

    1. Matt Chapman
    2. David Fletcher
    3. Kyle Seager

    Overall Probability Leader 3B: Nolan Arenado

    Nolan Arenado comes in as the overall probability favorite to win the Gold Glove at third base in 2019. Three 20-plus DRS seasons in the last six years have helped the Rockie win the NL award every year since 2013. His 2013 season was particularly stunning, amassing 14.6 UZR and 17.7 Fielding Runs Above Average to go along with his 30 total Runs Saved. Since our model takes into account the subjectivity of voting, Arenado is helped tremendously by the fact he’s won the NL award every year since 2013. Second overall was Oakland’s Matt Chapman, who’s arguably had better defensive seasons at third base in recent years, though he was still great in 2019:

    Year Name UZR FRAA DRS
    2017 Nolan Arenado 6.7 5 20
    2017 Matt Chapman 9.4 12.6 19
    2018 Nolan Arenado 5.8 9.1 5
    2018 Matt Chapman 10.9 15.6 29
    2019 Nolan Arenado 7.5 10.3 7
    2019 Matt Chapman 12.8 13.5 16

    With Chapman’s sole win coming last year, the model heavily favored a five-time Gold Glover in Arenado to be the top pick. That’s not to say Arenado hasn’t been superb throughout his career, as evidenced by plays like this one that will keep him a formidable force at the position for years to come:

    NL SS:

    1. Nick Ahmed
    2. Trevor Story
    3. Javier Baez

    AL SS:

    1. Andrelton Simmons
    2. Francisco Lindor
    3. Adalberto Mondesi

    Overall Probability Leader SS: Andrelton Simmons

    At shortstop, we have another case of a perennial winner taking home the overall top spot. Andrelton Simmons of the Angels comes in as the favorite at the position. A winner in 2013, 2017, and 2018, Simmons, for a period of time, was considered possibly the best defender in Major League Baseball. His range and ability to make tough ground ball outs (like this one) contribute strongly to his Good Fielding Play totals and other metrics like UZR.

    Like Arenado, his 2013 season was pretty remarkable. Simmons totaled 14.8 UZR, 27.2 FRAA and 41 DRS, the second-highest total for the statistic behind Kevin Kiermaier’s 2015 season.

    Last year’s NL winner Nick Ahmed came in at second and, like Chapman, was hurt by the model for not winning as many previous awards.

    NL LF:

    1. David Peralta
    2. Joc Pederson
    3. Marcel Ozuna

    AL LF:

    1. Alex Gordon
    2. Andrew Benintendi
    3. Michael Brantley

    Overall Probability Leader LF: David Peralta

    David Peralta would be our theoretical overall winner in left field. Peralta’s a name that may not have gotten a lot of attention playing in Arizona this year, but the 32-year-old outfielder was an anchor at the position. He put up an impressive 6.2 UZR and 10 defensive runs saved this season, considerably better than his runner up Alex Gordon, who only had a 3.2 UZR and -1 DRS. Again, we see an example of a six-time winner in Gordon being assisted by his previous prowess, but Peralta has performed well enough to win at a position that’s slightly devoid of talent.

    NL CF:

    1. Victor Robles
    2. Lorenzo Cain
    3. Harrison Bader

    AL CF:

    1. Kevin Kiermaier
    2. Jackie Bradley Jr.
    3. George Springer

    Overall Probability Leader CF: Kevin Kiermaier

    Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays comes in as the top probability winner, with Victor Robles behind him. Both have had strong seasons, with Kiermaier leading Robles in UZR, but Robles having 22 DRS compared to Kiermaier’s 13. With what’s become a theme of this piece, Kiermaier is helped by the model favoring players with previous wins, as he’s a two-time Gold Glover compared to Robles’ none. As previously mentioned, some of Kiermaier’s seasons have been remarkable, especially his 2015 campaign in which he totaled 42 DRS, the highest total since its inception in 2003. He’s certainly not a bad choice for the award by any means.

    NL RF:

    1. Jason Heyward
    2. Cody Bellinger
    3. Hunter Renfroe

    AL RF:

    1. Mookie Betts
    2. Josh Reddick
    3. Max Kepler

    Overall Probability Leader RF: Jason Heyward

    Right field turned out as effectively a tie between the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger and the Cubs’ Jason Heyward. Taking a quick look at their 2019 defensive stats , this might be a bit striking: Bellinger had 19 Runs Saved and a 9.5 UZR. Heyward had 7 Runs Saved and a 2.4 UZR.

    If we’re looking at this year’s numbers, the Gold Glove shouldn’t even be a contest between these two. Heyward, though, is helped tremendously, probably too much, by the fact he’s won five times by his age 29 season, whereas Bellinger has yet to win. Before any previous Gold Glove inputs were added to the model, Bellinger was the overall favorite to win, showing that subjectivity of voting and previous wins can play a major role in who ends up with the hardware.

    Conclusion

    This was our first attempt at building a Gold Glove model and it’s clear it needs some tweaking. It performs fairly well on most occasions but does tend to overvalue players who have won previous Gold Gloves. One potential way to fix this overemphasis on past winners is to eliminate more of the older years from the training data. We do need to go back in time relatively far in order to incorporate enough positive results in the sample, but voting in the pre-defensive index days was far more friendly to past winners than the current system (for example: Derek Jeter)

    Removing some of the pre-2013 years — along with adding team record as a small adjustment to account for more bias — could make the model more robust and accurate. Overall, our model appears to be a successful way to judge Gold Glove contenders. Nevertheless, the true measure of whether our model performed admirably won’t come until we see the final votes.

     

  • The Nationals are a different team (and outfield) defensively

    By Mark Simon

    The Astros are an elite defensive team. The Nationals are, in totality, an average one. They actually ranked 12th in a National League that was crowded with good defensive teams, in Defensive Runs Saved (18th overall).

    But you have to take that number with a grain of salt. The Nationals are a different team from the one that started 19-31. And one of the ways that they’re better is their defense. That’s been driven by two of their young standouts.

    Their star
    Rookie Victor Robles led all center fielders with 22 Runs Saved, passing Lorenzo Cain for the lead late in the season. Robles has a very good glove and a very good arm. His 11 Range & Positioning Runs Saved ranked third at the position and were the product of catching a number of balls in the shallowest part of the outfield that his fellow center fielders didn’t typically catch. The Nationals position him shallow, allowing him to make catches on shallow line drives and fly balls. They also put him in good position to throw. His nine Outfield Arm Runs Saved and 12 assists without the help of a cutoff man were the most among all outfielders.

    Through the team’s first 50 games, Robles had cost the Nationals one run with his defense in center field. The rest of the season, he saved an MLB-best 23.

    The ups and the downs
    Juan Soto is one of the game’s rising superstars. He’s come up with big hit after big hit this postseason. On the defensive side, Soto is capable of excellence. He had seven Range & Positioning Runs Saved in the regular season, and his phenomenal catch of a Clayton Kershaw line drive in an NLDS Game 2 win against the Dodgers helps validate those numbers.

    Soto’s issue is with his arm, which cost the Nationals five runs per our Outfield Arm Runs Saved stat. Forty-six runners took an extra base on a base hit he fielded. He didn’t throw out anyone all season.

    Through those first 50 games, Soto had cost the Nationals five runs. Despite the outfield arm issues, he found ways to save six runs the rest of the year. What looks to have happened (from a little bit of video review) is that the Nationals figured out how to best position Soto. That allowed him to make plays like this one on Harold Castro, a play with a 1% out probability because of the kind of batted ball it was, where it was hit, and how hard it was hit. And also this one on Yoan Moncada, where he had to sprint back and make an athletic reach to catch a ball with an 8% out probability.

    As the defense goes …
    This probably isn’t that surprising, but it fits for those who point out that you can’t judge the Nationals on their 19-31 start. Washington was tied with the Orioles for 28th in the majors in Runs Saved through May 23. Since then, the Nationals have saved 33 runs, which ranks sixth in that time.

    Robles and Soto were the sparks. We’ll see if they have one great series left in them.

  • What makes the Astros defense great?

    By Mark Simon

    This shouldn’t come as a surprise if you watched them during the ALCS: The Houston Astros led the American League in Defensive Runs Saved with 89 in 2019. Houston’s defensive excellence is the product of a collective effort. Thirty players on other teams had more Runs Saved than the Astros leader, George Springer, who had 11.

    Astros Defensive Keys
    * OF led MLB in Catch Rate on Flies & Liners
    * Infield led AL in Shift Runs Saved
    * Carlos Correa makes many great plays, few mistakes
    * Martin Maldonado, Robinson Chirinos: great pitch blockers
    * Zack Greinke: Nimble on the mound

    A great outfield

    But Springer was part of an outfield that combined to save 45 runs with its defense, the second-highest total in the majors and 19 runs more than the next-best AL team (the Yankees, 26).

    The Astros caught an MLB-high 62% of fly balls and line drives hit to the outfield (but not out of the ballpark) this season. Springer, Jake Marisnick, Josh Reddick, and Michael Brantley were the players integral to that.

    Springer split his time and his Runs Saved between center field (6 Runs Saved in 75 games) and right field (5 in 59). That was a big jump from 2018, when he cost his team five runs with his defensive play. He’s usually best on fly balls to the shallowest part of the outfield (you’ll see that’s a trend here). Watch him on deep balls in right field. The numbers indicate that’s not his strength.

    Marisnick is the team’s best ‘go back and get it’ outfielder, hence a valuable center fielder. He’s totaled at least 10 Runs Saved in a season as an outfielder four times. Since 2014, he ranks seventh among outfielders in Runs Saved despite ranking 60th in innings. He finished 2019 with five Runs Saved, with his strength being catching the shallow fly ball rather than the deep fly, as it had been in years past. The Astros have been using him as a defensive closer this postseason, bringing him in to protect late-game leads.

    Jake Marisnick on Shallow Fly Balls
    Opportunities* 78
    Plays Made 59
    Expected Plays Made 50
    Plays Above Expected 9**
    * Balls with Catch Probability >0%
    ** T-2nd among CF

    In Game 6 of the ALCS, he replaced Brantley (with Springer and Reddick moving so Marisnick could play center). But Brantley is no slouch. He made a great diving catch to preserve the Astros lead that game. Brantley tied for the lead among left fielders with 10 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019.

    The Astros play Brantley an average of four feet shallower than the average left fielder plays at Minute Maid Park. That likely helped him too in catching shallow flies, as he fared well above average in doing that. You saw that in the LCS catch.

    Springer just missed DJ LeMahieu’s game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 6. That kind of ball is one that Reddick has made his season on. He’s snagged five home run robberies this year (here’s one), matching Carlos Gomez (2013) and Lorenzo Cain (2019) for the most in a season since Sports Info Solutions began tracking them fully in 2004.

    Reddick’s nine Runs Saved in right field are largely boosted by those five catches. Otherwise, Reddick is a slightly above-average glove (he has a nice catch in Game 6 too). It will be worth watching how he throws. His Outfield Arm Runs Saved dipped from 3 to -3 from 2018 to 2019. He averaged five assists without a cutoff man from 2016 to 2018 but had only one unaided in 2019.

    Shifts key to infield success

    The Astros recorded 35 Shift Runs Saved in 2019, the third-highest total in the majors and easily the most in the American League. Houston put Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman in position to succeed, and those players made plays pivotal to the team’s success.

    Most Shift Runs Saved – 2019 Season
    Dodgers 48
    Diamondbacks 44
    Astros 35
    Cardinals 30

    There’s versatility there if needed. When Correa got hurt, Bregman moved from third base to shortstop and Gurriel moved from first base to third base. The team survived until Correa returned. When Correa’s healthy, you can see he is a difference maker with plays like the double play conversion in Game 6 of the ALCS.

    SIS tracks Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors using a set of rules devised by Bill James that rewards both Web Gem-type plays and things like a nifty double play turn and punishes for things like slipping and falling or failing to convert a makable double play.

    Correa averaged the most Good Fielding Plays per 1,000 innings and the fewest Defensive Misplays per 1,000 innings among shortstops in 2019. He’s the highlight reel star this year after Bregman played that role in years past.

    Carlos Correa vs. Trea Turner
    Good Fielding Plays Misplays & Errors
    Carlos Correa 25 9
    Trea Turner 16 35

    Bregman, Gurriel and Altuve are the consistent ones. Altuve’s not as nimble as he used to be, but Gurriel helps make up for that by the ground he covers at first base (and he helps his teammates out – Gurriel had only one Misplay & Error related to catching a throw).

    In all, the Astros turned 76% of ground balls and bunts into outs last season, the third-highest total in the majors.

    Pitch and Catch

    Behind the plate, the Astros split between Martin Maldonado and Robinson Chirinos. Maldonado is Cole’s personal catcher and could start if the Astros use a bullpen game again. Maldonado has a reputation of being one of the best defensive catchers in the game. He ranked among the best pitch blockers this season and is typically one of the leaders in pitch framing and basestealing deterrence, though he was just a smidge above average in both this season.

    Cole’s fine with that. He has a 1.30 ERA and a nearly 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the 90 1/3 innings Maldonado has caught him.

    Gerrit Cole By Catcher (includes postseason)
    Maldonado Chirinos
    ERA 1.3 2.44
    K-BB Ratio 7.6* 6.2
    Innings 90 1/3 103 1/3
    * 9.8 in regular season and LDS (137/14)

    Chirinos is a below-average pitch-framer and average when it comes to basestealing deterrence. However, he’s an outstanding pitch blocker. His 96% block rate on potential wild pitches was highest in the majors. Chirinos was Verlander’s personal catcher. He’s caught every pitch Verlander has thrown this season.

    As for the Astros pitchers, Cole and Verlander have one Misplay & Error between them and handle their positions well. They pale in comparison to Greinke, who might be the best fielding pitcher in baseball. He led all pitchers in putouts and tied Max Fried for the lead in assists. He also limited basestealers to 2-for-6 in stolen base attempts. This is something Greinke has been good at for a long time. He ranks second among pitchers in Defensive Runs Saved since the stat was first tracked in 2003.

    We know that the Astros can pitch and that their best defense is when the ball isn’t hit at all, which happens often for Cole and Verlander. But it’s a great luxury to have the defense they do. It puts them in position to win their second World Series in three seasons.

  • Scouting the future: Japan’s top players who may get posted down the road

    By Will Hoefer

    At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams. This piece, the last in our series, focuses on players who could be posted in future years.

    Part I – Position Players

    Part II – Pitchers

    Kohei Arihara, RHP, Nippon-Ham

    Age: 27 | Posting Eligibility: 2021

    Kohei Arihara has long been on the radar of Pacific Rim scouts, due in no small part to his rotation mate Shohei Ohtani drawing massive interest during his first three seasons as a pro. Nevertheless, Arihara has maintained the interest of MLB scouts well after the departure of Ohtani. The 27 year old right hander has ascended to ace status for the Fighters, and has enjoyed a breakout season on the strength of increased changeup usage that allows him to fare much better against left handed hitters. His 25.2 K% and 2.46 ERA this season are by far career highs, and it was encouraging to see him get to 160 innings pitched after a shoulder injury prior to the 2018 season limited him to 110 innings.

    Arihara features a four seamer with decent run and rise as his primary fastball, which will range anywhere from 88 to 95 MPH in a given start. It’s hard to get a great gauge of where he sits with, but his ability to maintain most of the higher range of his velocity late into games suggests he likes to mix speeds rather than try to blow hitters away.

    Against right handed hitters, Arihara goes to his slider and splitter to finish off plate appearances. The slider is his primary breaking ball, and an above-average offering with nice bite that is commanded well gloveside to the black. The splitter features good slashing movement that can get down and in on the shoetops of righties, but it can leak over the plate at times and projects more as an average offering.

    Against left handed batters, Arihara likes to go to his changeup and cutter. The cutter, which has been used less in recent years, is an average offering that Arihara can locate fairly well on the hands of lefties and generate weak contact. The changeup is the one true plus offering that Arihara features, as he demonstrates plus depth and fade with more consistent feel than the splitter. Rounding out his repertoire is a mid to high 80s two seamer that will likely be scrapped at the next level, along with an eephus curve that serves as a change of pace pitch.

    With only being a year away from that all too valuable sixth year of NPB service time, don’t expect Kohei Arihara to be posted until after the 2020 season. He has grown into his wide arsenal of offerings, and seems to have found a pitch mix that best suits him as a starter. Arihara demonstrates strong command of his three best pitches–an above average four seamer, a plus change, and a slider that flashes plus. That, along with his resourceful deployment of his lesser secondary offerings to keep hitters off balance, projects Arihara as a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team as soon as 2021.

     

    Kohei Arihara W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 15 8 164.1 2.46 0.92 0.8 25.2% 6.3%
    Career 52 41 703.1 3.79 1.22 1.0 17.8% 5.6%

    Masataka Yoshida, OF, Orix

    Age: 26 | Posting Eligibility: 2023

    The shining star in an otherwise bleak Orix sky, Masataka Yoshida is one of the best pure hitters in the NPB. He’s had back to back 25-home run seasons, is one of three qualified hitters to walk more than he struck out in 2019, and has been consistently among the leaders in OPS throughout his NPB career. The only thing Yoshida doesn’t do is run–he’s 9 for 14 in career stolen base attempts–but there are few better inside the batter’s box than this Buffaloes’ basher.

    Yoshida exhibits plus bat speed and plus raw power from the left side, with quiet lower half swing mechanics. His load gets a little long due to a hand hitch keeps him from getting out in front of the ball more on high velocity pitches, but he still has the hand quickness and feel for hitting to spray consistently and drive those pitches up the middle. Being able to get out in front and drive those balls pull side with some regularity is the next step. Defensively, Yoshida is limited to left field, as he has fringe average arm strength and foot speed. He moves very tentatively in the field and doesn’t seem to get good reads on fly balls, which projects him to have below average range.

    Yoshida’s power relative to his size, feel for hitting from the left side, and fringy defensive ability reminds me a lot of Texas Rangers’ DH/LF Willie Calhoun–whose offensive breakout in 2019 shows promise for Yoshida getting an offer to play everyday as a middle of the order masher. Due to a lower back injury that sidelined him for most of 2017, Yoshida is likely not going to gain the requisite six years of service time required to eligible for a major league contract in the posting process until after the 2022 season. Considering his value is almost entirely tied to his bat, he should be able to retain his value over the next three seasons provided he stays healthy–though it remains to be seen if Orix will be willing to post their superstar.

    Masataka Yoshida PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 610 .322 .413 .543 29 5 13.0% 10.5%
    Career 1734 .315 .401 .535 77 9 12.2% 11.8%

    Atsuki Taneichi, RHP

    Chiba Lotte (Posting: 2026)

    R/R 6-00, 183 lbs

    Date of Birth: 09/07/1998

    NOTE: Due to Taneichi’s age, I’ve decided to take a more pure scouting report approach to his entry in the series. We’ll cover his frame, mechanics, each pitch and his overall command, along with overall thoughts and a long term projection.

    Fastball: 40 (50), Slider: 45 (55), Splitter: 55 (60), Command: 40 (50)

    Build and Mechanics: 6’0”, 183 lbs. Mostly filled out, might be able to add a bit more muscle to his frame. Pitches out of a three-quarter armslot, shows good arm speed and extension with smooth lower-half mechanics; though shortening up his arm action might help him get a bit more zip on his fastball.

    Fastball: Sits 88-91, Tops out at 92. Could probably add some muscle onto his frame, but the velo is going to be no better than average. Can get plus run on it and has shown effectiveness getting weak contact working up in the zone. Gets good rise on his 4-seamer and good sink on 2-seamer.

    Slider: Average pitch that flashes above average bite and depth. Think it should be used more as a change of pace against lefties but should be an out pitch against righties as he refines his command of it.

    Splitter: Plus depth and fade, shows advanced feel but can leak it over the middle. Demonstrates an ability to tunnel it off of sinker against lefties and slice it down against righties.

    Command: Secondary command is developing, showing some difficulty getting over the top of his slider. Both split and slider will miss over the plate, but motion is repeatable and fluid enough to project an increase in hitting spots.

    Overall: Taniechi has been impressive as a second year out of high school in the NPB. His upside is limited due to a fastball with a strong movement profile but lackluster velocity, but he has a splitter that projects as plus along with a slider that should be a reliable out pitch versus righties. Secondary command is still a work in progress, but he generally keeps his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Refinement of his slider will be key for him. If he can consistently get over the top of it he has bottom of rotation upside in an MLB rotation.

    Atsuki Taneichi W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 8 2 116.2 3.24 1.41 0.8 26.7% 10.1%
    Career 8 6 155.0 3.95 1.42 0.9 24.1% 9.5%

     

  • Scouting some of Japan’s top potential MLB pitchers

    By Will Hoefer

    At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams.

    Kodai Senga, RHP, Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks

    Age: 26 | Free Agency Eligibility: 2022 | Posting Eligible?: Yes

    Kodai Senga doesn’t just possess some of the best raw stuff in Japan, he possesses some of the best raw stuff in the world. The 26 year old righthander has been electric in 2019. He leads all qualified starters with a 20.4 K-BB%, and his 11.5 K/9 rate also tops the NPB rotation leaderboard. 

    Senga typically averaged around 92 MPH on his heater during his previous four years as staff ace of the Hawks, but has seen his average fastball velocity jump to around 95-96 MPH in 2019, and will touch 98 and 99 routinely in starts. He’s still adjusting to his newfound velocity, and will either need to improve his ability to hit the corners or start attacking the zone more to blow hitters away with his premium velocity and plus spin.

    His main out pitch is a devastating forkball splitter, which has plus plus depth due to Senga’s innate ability to neutralize spin with how he grips the ball. Senga’s been working on a cutter in recent years, which has jumped up in velocity as well. It sits in the high 80s with average bite, but plays up by keeping hitters off his fastball and vice versa. His fourth pitch is an average slider with inconsistent shape and location that flashes above average. 

    Senga has top of the rotation upside, and would easily earn a nine-figure deal if he were posted this offseason. Unfortunately, SoftBank is one of the more intransigent teams when it comes to posting their players. Barring a drastic change of institutional practice, it seems that MLB franchises will have to wait until Senga is eligible for international free agency in 2022.

    Kodai Senga W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 13 8 180.1 2.79 1.16 0.9 30.6% 10.3%
    Career 55 29 733.1 2.77 1.12 0.9 28.4% 9.4%

    Tomoyuki Sugano, RHP, Yomiuri Giants

    Age: 29 | Free Agency Eligibility: 2022 | Posting Eligible?: Yes

    When consistency meets excellence in the NPB, it produces a pitcher like Tomoyuki Sugano. From 2014-2018, Sugano never had a season with an ERA lower than 2.33 or less than 150 innings pitched, and did it all for the Yomiuri Giants– the flagship franchise of the NPB. However, in 2019 Sugano has taken a step back. His ERA is a career high 3.89, he’s on pace to pitch fewer than 150 innings, and he’s averaging 1.3 homers per nine–more than double his career rate. 

    Sugano works off a fastball that sits 90-92 and tops out at 94 MPH. In later looks his fastball was sitting 89-91, but he still generates strong armside run and gets good sink on his two seamer. It’s lively enough to be an average pitch at present, though he has lost a tick on his heater and can’t really afford to lose any more velocity. His bread and butter is mixing that fastball with a pair of slider variations, both plus.

    The harder slider, which is classified as a cutter in some reports, has a nice tight hook and sharp gloveside bite. The more traditional slider has a more vertical hook that Sugano is able to finish down with regularly. He’ll mix in a hard forkball splitter that flashes plus depth, but the lack of consistent feel keeps it from projecting any more than an average pitch at the major league level.

    Like Senga, you can pretty much bank on Sugano not coming over to the majors until 2022. Yomiuri has made it very clear that they do not intend to post their players under the current posting agreement between MLB and NPB. That’s a shame, because Sugano still profiles as a No. 4 starter for an MLB team at present. But three years is a ways away, and any further loss of fastball velocity–particularly because of its correlation with an increased home run rate–could quell Sugano’s market abroad by the time he is eligible to negotiate with major league teams.

    Tomoyuki Sugano W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 11 6 136.1 3.89 1.25 1.3 20.8% 5.9%
    Career 87 47 1222.2 2.36 1.05 0.6 22.1% 5.1%

    Takahiro Norimoto, RHP, Rakuten Golden Eagles

    Age: 28 | Free Agency Eligibility: 2026 | Posting Eligible?: Yes

    If Senga’s strength is elite stuff, and Sugano’s strength is elite performance, Takahiro Norimoto strength is the blend of both. Rakuten’s ace has been stellar in his seven year career, posting a 3.06 ERA with a 25.3% K rate and a miniscule 6.1% BB rate in nearly 1200 career innings. Unfortunately, Norimoto’s season was delayed by offseason surgery to clean up his pitching elbow, which has limited his starts in 2019. The good news is that he’s been quite good in limited action since returning from the injured list, posting an ERA around 3 and showing the same level of stuff he had pre-injury.

    Norimoto works off a fastball that will sit in the 92-94 MPH range and touch 96. He exhibits very good rise on it, and does a good job hiding it in his delivery to give it the “sneaky hop” that makes hitters late on it. He’ll generally follow up with a variety of three secondary pitches–a slider, a cutter and a splitter.

    The slider and cutter will bleed into each other in terms of shape and velocity, and will often get classified together as one pitch. The cutter has more lateral bite and break than the slider. Flashes plus when he commands it glove side, but it will leak towards the middle. The slider grades out as plus, due to its plus downward break and Norimoto’s ability to command it to both sides of the plate. The splitter flashes plus when Norimoto can get it to dive from the middle of the plate, but inconsistent feel will cause it to spike or hang and keeps it from being plus. A curve and a straight change, both confidently used as change of pace pitches, round out his arsenal.

    It was reported during the summer that Norimoto signed a seven-year extension with Rakuten prior to the 2019 season. If Rakuten chooses not to post Norimoto over the next seven years, he won’t be heading to the majors until his age 36 season. However, given Norimoto’s previously stated desire to be posted, it has been speculated that perhaps Norimoto is still interested in a move to the majors, and sought this extension as a form of insurance. Norimoto at present projects as a No. 3 starter in a major league rotation, with No. 2 upside if he continues to demonstrate the stuff and command he has shown since returning from injury over a larger sample of time. 

    Takahiro Norimoto W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 7 5 83.0 2.49 0.98 0.9 24.5% 4.0%
    Career 82 63 1211.1 3.02 1.14 0.7 25.3% 6.2%

    Yudai Ono, LHP, Chunichi Dragons

    Age: 30 | Free Agency Eligibility: 2021 | Posting Eligible? Yes

    The longtime rock of the Dragons’ staff, Yudai Ono has been breathing fire in 2019. On the strength of a subtle increase in fastball velocity, Ono set a career high mark in strikeout rate while also cutting his walk rate down a half percent from career norms. This has helped him post a sparkling 2.63 ERA in over 174 innings pitched in the 2019 regular season. 

    Ono works primarily off a three pitch mix–fastball, splitter, slider. He’ll also mix in a get me over curveball once or twice a start, but those three pitches are what you need to prepare for when you step into the box. The fastball sits at 90 to 93 MPH, and will touch 94. It’s an average pitch with good rise that plays up a half grade due to Ono’s short arm action that hides the ball behind his head and makes batter late on it.

    The splitter is the better of his two secondaries, an out pitch against righties and a weak contact generator against lefties. It’s a hard offering, but the above average fade and depth makes it work despite the lack of velocity separation from the fastball. The slider is a high 70s slurvy offering that’s average at best, but still useful. It will get some whiffs from lefties early on, but the general goal of the pitch is to get hitters out in front and roll over on it, which Ono executes by consistently placing it over the outer edge of the zone. Occasionally a slider or splitter will leak out over the middle, or a fastball doesn’t get high enough. But as a whole, he generally commands all three pitches well to their spots and misses barrels when he does give up contact.

    Ono is not an international free agent until 2021, and it’s not clear if Chunichi is willing to post him, or if he is even interested in being posted. In years past, teams would have a hard time projecting Ono to pitch in anything greater than a relief role. He doesn’t have a very deep arsenal and lacks a plus pitch, making it hard to see him having success against MLB batters when he faces them a third time.

    However, with the advent of the opener strategy, pitchers with a similar profile have had success as the “longman”. I think Ono has enough command and deception to work in this role, where he can avoid having to face batters three times in a game.

    Yudai Ono W L IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 9 8 174.1 2.63 1.00 0.9 22.2% 6.6%
    Career 58 61 1046.1 3.25 1.20 0.8 18.6% 7.1%

    Pierce Johnson, RHP, Hanshin Tigers

    Age: 28 | Free Agency Eligibility: 2020 | Posting Eligible? N/A

    This strays mostly from my focus of domestic players, but outside of catcher Ryutaro Umeno there really aren’t any superlative natives on Hanshin’s roster. Johnson has put up eye-popping numbers in his first year in the NPB; among pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, he leads the league in ERA (1.43), FIP (1.52) and K-BB% (33.8). His stuff isn’t too much different than his stints in Chicago and San Fran; the curve is a little harder and the fastball lost a half tick or so. What is different is his pitch mix.

     Johnson has completely scrapped his cutter in favor of throwing more curveballs, going 50/50 with his fastball and curve. Sure enough, the curve was by far the most effective offering he had as a major leaguer–he had a .225 xwOBA against on his breaker, compared to a .312 xwOBA on the cutter and a .355 xwOBA on the fastball. He also had an average spin rate of 2946 RPM on that curveball, which was 6th among pitchers with at least 200 curveballs thrown from 2017-2018. This kind of overhaul in approach isn’t uncommon in the majors, and if you close your eyes and picture a pitcher scrapping a secondary fastball for a four seam+curve mix you’d probably visualize an Astros cap on his head. 

    What’s most fascinating isn’t that this happened, but where it happened. NPB teams are certainly more aware of analytical concepts like infield shifting and lineup construction than ever before, but this is the most prominent example in the NPB of a pitcher overhauling his repertoire to pitch off of his best pitch–even if it’s a curveball.

    Johnson, who’s on a one year deal for Hanshin making the equivalent of about $800,000, has made the adjustments that we’ve seen in so many breakouts in the States. However, he didn’t have to toil in the high minors to do it, and has at the very least a multi-million dollar market for his services in Japan. 

    Pierce Johnson G IP ERA WHIP HR/9 K% BB%
    2019 (NPB) 55 55.2 1.43 0.83 0.3 39.4 6.1
    Career (MLB) 38 44.2 5.44 1.41 1.0 19.7% 12.4%

     

  • Stat of the Week: 2019 MLB Defensive Runs Saved Leaders

    By Mark Simon

    With the regular season complete, let’s take a look at the MLB leaders in Defensive Runs Saved for 2019.

    Indians catcher Roberto Pérez headlines the list. His 29 Runs Saved were the most of any player. Pérez ranked first in Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (staff handling), and second in both Strike Zone Runs Saved (pitch framing) and Good Fielding Play Runs Saved (pitch blocking).

    Not surprisingly, the Athletics had the leader at both the corner infield spots. First baseman Matt Olson (14 Runs Saved) and third baseman Matt Chapman (18) each led at his position for the second straight season. In fact, all four infield spots featured repeat leaders. Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong (14) topped out there. Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed (19), who shared leader honors with Andrelton Simmons last season, was a solo leader this time around.

    The outfield is a bit crowded. Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers tied for the lead in right field with each saving 19 runs. Judge’s total would likely have been higher were he not limited to 92 games there due to injuries. Bellinger might have finished with more had the Dodgers not moved him to first base and center field.

    Nationals rookie Victor Robles saved 22 runs in center field, edging past Lorenzo Cain of the Brewers (20). Left field netted a three-way tie. Michael Brantley of the Astros, Mike Tauchman of the Yankees and David Peralta of the Diamondbacks each saved 10 runs.

    Robles’ 24 Runs Saved (22 in center field, 2 in right field), were the most of any outfielder, two more than Bellinger (who saved 3 runs in center field) and Hunter Renfroe of the Padres (13 Runs Saved in right field, 7 in center field, 2 in left field).

    Braves pitcher Max Fried rounds out the team as the leader there. Fried saved six runs. Among those he edged out were teammates Dallas Keuchel and Mike Soroka, who each had five.

    The Dodgers finished as the leading team with 135 Runs Saved, aided by an MLB-best 47 Runs Saved from shifts. They finished with a positive Runs Saved total at every position except third base.

    2019 Defensive Runs Saved Leaders
    Position Name DRS
     C Roberto Pérez 29
     1B Matt Olson 14
     2B Kolten Wong 14
     SS Nick Ahmed 19
     3B Matt Chapman 18
     LF (tie) David Peralta 10
     LF (tie) Michael Brantley 10
     LF (tie) Mike Tauchman 10
     CF Victor Robles 22
     RF (tie) Aaron Judge 19
     RF (tie) Cody Bellinger 19
     OF (Overall) Victor Robles 24
     P Max Fried 6
     Team Dodgers 135

    —

    We also close out the season by choosing the top defender for September. That honor goes to to versatile Phillies rookie outfielder Adam Haseley.

    Haseley saved 11 runs with his defense in September, the most of any player. He saved four runs apiece in center field and left field and also saved three runs in right field. His 13 Runs Saved this season were the most of any player who made his MLB debut in 2019 and were tied with Alex Verdugo of the Dodgers for second among rookies, trailing only Victor Robles (24).

    Haseley’s signature play of the month was a home run robbery against Freddy Galvis of the Reds on Sept. 4. It was one of seven Good Fielding Plays by Haseley as tracked by Sports Info Solutions Video Scouts. That was the most of any outfielder.

    Haseley was part of a Phillies outfield that showed huge improvement from 2018 to 2019. It went from costing the team 52 runs with its defense to saving 28 runs. The team’s Runs Saved total improved by 197 (from -146 to 51), the biggest year-to-year turnaround since Runs Saved began being tracked in 2003.

    Defensive Players of the Month
    Month Player Team, Pos
    March/April Lorenzo Cain Brewers CF
    May Cody Bellinger Dodgers OF-1B
    June Austin Hedges Padres C
    July Hunter Renfroe Padres OF
    August Javier Báez Cubs SS
    September Adam Haseley Phillies OF

    For more baseball content, check out the Sports Info Solutions Blog or the SIS Baseball Podcast.

  • How Each Postseason Contender Could Build Their Rosters for October

    By Corey Eiferman

    *All stats are as of September 23rd

    With the Major League Baseball postseason just a few days away, discussions are being held on which players should be on postseason rosters. Several times per postseason, you’ll hear a player say how it “takes 25 guys” to win one round, and hopefully, subsequent rounds of postseason. I aimed to try to use both recent history of the rosters of pennant winning teams, and the performance of the players of each team this year, to try to generate a hybrid of both a prediction and a suggestion of the rosters should look like.

    While teams will shuffle guys on and off their rosters between rounds, 50% of the last ten pennant winners carried 12 pitchers and 13 position players in the LCS and World Series. However, three of the last five World Series winners, the 2018 Red Sox, the 2016 Cubs, and 2015 Royals, carried 11 pitchers and 14 position players, showing that there is never an exact template, and there’s no right answer.

    The Red Sox didn’t shuffle their roster between rounds in 2018. The Cubs and Royals switched out one position player for another before the World Series. Both were notable cases- in 2016 Kyle Schwarber famously battled back from ACL surgery in April to hit .412 for the Cubs in the World Series. The Royals added Adalberto Mondesi in 2015. He became the first player to play in the modern-day World Series before his regular-season debut.

    I also looked at trends within the rosters of recent pennant winners. None of the last six pennant winners carried traditional Pinch Runners and Pinch Hitters, opting instead for players like Marwin Gonzalez, who embodied the evolution of the classic utility infielders into super-utility players.

    I looked at the teams that have clinched a spot as of Thursday. As an aside, all rosters are composed with the caveat that the team has hypothetically won their Division or their League’s Wild Card Game, and these are for the Divisional and Championship Series.:

    *denotes potential platoon

    New York Yankees

    Starting Pitchers, including “Piggyback” Tandems: James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino + J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia + Jonathan Loaisiga

    Bullpen: Aroldis Chapman, Adam Ottavino, Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, Chad Green, Luis Cessa,

    Lineup: C-Gary Sanchez, 1B-Edwin Encarnacion, 2B-D.J. LeMahieu, SS-Gleyber Torres, 3B- Gio Urshela, LF- Giancarlo Stanton, CF- Brett Gardner, RF- Aaron Judge, DH- Luke Voit

    Bench: Austin Romine, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Wade, Cameron Maybin

    Key decisions: Tandem starters; What to do with Didi Gregorius

    On September 17, a story by Tom Verducci for Sports Illustrated quoted Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone as saying he might use tandem starters or “piggyback” strategy in the playoffs, similar to how the 2017 Astros piggybacked Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr in Games 7 of both the 2017 ALCS and World Series.

    After Boone named offseason acquisition James Paxton as the only one who would make a traditional start in the playoffs, Masahiro Tanaka bounced back with his best start since August 27, in the Yankees’ AL East clinching game, possibly causing Boone to alter his plans again. Look for none of the quartet of Luis Severino, who is battling back from both a rotator cuff injury and a lat strain, Jonathan Loaisiga, recovering from a shoulder strain, and veterans CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ, to face more than 18 batters by design, as Boone navigates through the playoffs.

    Boone said he would carry six “key” relievers on top of his starters and piggybackers. The Yankees still possess a bullpen that could arguably be more intimidating than the mid-2010s Royals. The trio of closer Aroldis Chapman, Set-up Man Zack Britton, and 7th-inning man Tommy Kahnle all have accumulated more than 1.2 Win Probability Added.

    The Yankees are the only team to have nine players with an OPS+ of 110 this season (minimum 200 plate appearances). Their best offensive lineup would be one without Didi Gregorius starting. Gio Urshela has has been a revelation. Gregorius could come in for defense late in games, and the Yankees could shift LeMahieu over to first, and Torres over to second, while also subbing in the veteran Cameron Maybin for Giancarlo Stanton.

    Minnesota Twins

    Starting Pitchers: José Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez, Kyle Gibson

    Bullpen: Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Brusdar Graterol, Ryne Harper, Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Devin Smeltzer

    Lineup: C- Mitch Garver, 1B- C.J. Cron, 2B- Jonathan Schoop, SS- Jorge Polanco, 3B- Miguel Sano, LF- Eddie Rosario, CF- Max Kepler, RF- Marwin Gonzalez, DH- Nelson Cruz

    Bench: Jason Castro, Willians Astudillo, Luis Arraez, Ehire Adrianza

    Key decision: Bullpen composition

    Much has been written about the Twins’ offense, the team that might have most benefited from the possibly, allegedly, juiced balls. They are the first team with five players with 30 home runs, with Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano and Mitch Garver.

    In Garver’s surprising breakout, the Twins catcher’s barrel percentage went up 10 percentage points, his average exit velocity is up 2 MPH runs, and he snatched the starting job away from Jason Castro.

    Speaking of catchers (sort of) Willians Astudillo has played at least games at every position except pitcher, shortstop, and center field, and with injuries to Ehire Adrianza and Max Kepler, should bring that unique versatility to the roster.

    Going into the postseason, if you find a hot hand, you ride that hot hand. The Twins should make sure their postseason roster has a spot for Brusdar Graterol, who, as laid out by Baseball Prospectus’ Aaron Gleeman, only needed to throw one pitch to become the hardest throwing pitcher in Twins history. Graterol has hit 100 MPH in seven of his eight appearances since being called up in September.

    After struggling in his first-full season as a starter in 2016, Tyler Duffey’s been able to transition to being a reliever, with a curveball that could register anywhere between 70 and 88 mph. Left-handed Swingman Devin Smeltzer has reverse splits, limiting righties to a .721 OPS, with lefties at .869, so the Twins could carry two non-lefty specialists alongside closer Taylor Rogers. The inverse of Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak is a right-hander with reverse splits, and has pitched well whether he’s been an opener, long man, or a starter in just 22 1/3 innings.

    Houston Astros

    Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke

    Bullpen: Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Josh James, Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Framber Valdez

    Lineup: C- Robinson Chirinos, 1B- Yuli Gurriel, 2B- Jose Altuve, SS- Carlos Correa, 3B- Alex Bregman, LF- Michael Brantley, CF- George Springer, RF- Josh Reddick, DH- Yordan Alvarez

    Bench: Martin Maldonado, Aledmys Diaz, Jake Marisnick, Kyle Tucker, Myles Straw

    Key decisions: 3 starters or 4? Myles Straw’s role

    The 2009 Yankees were the only team in the modern-divisional era to win a World Series with just three Starting Pitchers. Following a September in which Wade Miley lasted, zero, one-third, and one inning in starts, the Astros might try to replicate that with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke. If that trio, containing two Cy Young winners and a pitcher drafted No. 1 overall, all pitch to their talent level, the Astros are very likely to hoist their second World Series trophy in three years, with more ease than those 2009 Yankees.

    If the Astros do go with three starters, they will still need some key outs from their bullpen. The 35-year-old sidearmer Joe Smith is in his 13th Major League Season. He has never had an ERA over 4.00, and has a 1.16 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP in 23 1/3 innings pitched this year, while battling back from Achilles surgery. Smith’s 54% ground ball rate (albeit in a small sample) is his highest since 2014, when he was with the Angels the year they snuck past the Athletics to win the AL West.

    Myles Straw could emerge as the next Kiké Hernandez or Chris Taylor, having saved one run at shortstop, center field, and left field this year. Kyle Tucker’s hot September may be forgotten amidst the otherworldly rookie season of Yordan Alvarez, but the outfielder has hit over .300 and slugged over .500 since his first start in right field in September.

    Atlanta Braves

    Starting Pitchers: Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Dallas Keuchel, Julio Teheran

    Bullpen: Mark Melancon, Shane Greene, Chris Martin, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Josh Tomlin, Sean Newcomb, Mike Foltynewicz

    Lineup: C*- Brian McCann/Tyler Flowers, 1B- Freddie Freeman, 2B- Ozzie Albies, SS- Dansby Swanson, 3B- Josh Donaldson, LF- Austin Riley, CF- Ronald Acuña, RF- Nick Markakis

    Bench: Johan Camargo, Ender Inciarte, Matt Joyce, Billy Hamilton

    Key decisions: Using Billy Hamilton; putting starters in the bullpen

    The Braves are easily the team with the best chance of preventing the Dodgers from making their third straight trip to the World Series. Their starting lineup is remarkably deep, with a mix of young stars players still in their primes, and veterans. Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Austin Riley are the first trio of players younger than 23 to each hit 15 home runs in a season.

    While a pennant winner hasn’t carried a player to strictly pinch run since the Royals in 2015, look for a player who began the year in Kansas City to do that for the Braves this year, Billy Hamilton. Even though his average sprint speed has dipped, he still ranks among the fastest 3% of players in that stat in baseball.

    The Braves will be armed with a better bullpen, at least on paper, than the Dodgers, after acquiring Chris Martin, Shane Greene, and Mark Melancon at the deadline. The trio got off to a rough start, as through August 14 their combined ERA with the Braves was 11.15, but they’ve collectively righted the ship, with a combined 1.85 ERA since.

    The front-end of the Braves’ bullpen could feature two of the Braves postseason starters from last season. Both righty Mike Foltynewicz and lefty Sean Newcomb struggled in the beginning of 2019, but Foltynewicz has a 2.35 ERA in 8 starts since returning from Gwinnett, and Sean Newcomb has a 2.80 ERA since being moved to the bullpen in May, Newcomb’s Runs Above Average on his curveball has improved from -0.6 to 2.6 this year.

    St. Louis Cardinals

    Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright

    Bullpen: John Brebbia, Giovanny Gallegos, John Gant, Ryan Helsley, Carlos Martinez, Andrew Miller, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Tyler Webb

    Lineup: C-Yadier Molina, 1B- Paul Goldschmidt, 2B- Kolten Wong, SS- Paul DeJong, 3B- Matt Carpenter, LF- Marcell Ozuna, CF- Harrison Bader, RF- Dexter Fowler

    Bench: Matt Wieters, Tommy Edman, Yairo Muñoz, Tyler O’Neill, Jose Martinez

    Key decisions: Roles for Ryan Helsley and Tommy Edman

    The Cardinals’ quietly ascended from being five games back as late as June 12, to holding sole possession of first place in the NL Central from August 23rd on. The Cardinals playoff teams usually feature a midseason bullpen addition. But not in 2019.

    The quartet of Carlos Martinez, John Brebbia, John Gant, and Giovanny Gallegos is the only set of four relievers with ERAs under 3.50 in the NL, who spent all of 2019 with that same team. The trade that sent Luke Voit to the Yankees will not be looked at as catastrophic for the Cardinals, as Gallegos is second in the MLB in WHIP with 0.80, and his slider is second in Runs Above Average to the Reds’ Robert Stephenson.

    One hot hand for the Cardinals down the stretch has been reliever Ryan Helsley. The fifth-round pick from Northeastern State is this year’s Cardinal to come out of nowhere and help the big club. The 24-year-old has a 2.41 ERA in 21 appearances, and has hit 100 MPH on the radar gun in 14 of them. The versatile Tommy Edman has hit .317 since August 1 while seeing playing time at every position except first, shortstop, and catcher. He’s at second base now while Kolten Wong recovers from a hamstring injury. The Cardinals will need to figure out where Helsley and Edman fit best come October.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Starting Pitchers: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Rich Hill

    Bullpen: Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Adam Kolarek, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias

    Starting Lineup: C-Will Smith, 1B- Max Muncy, 2B- Gavin Lux, SS- Corey Seager, 3B- Justin Turner, LF- A.J. Pollock, CF- Cody Bellinger, RF- Joc Pederson

    Bench: Russell Martin, David Freese, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Matt Beaty

    Key decision: Gavin Lux’s usage

    Right now, probably only Dave Roberts knows exactly how he’ll employ and move his players around, as in one game this year, he changed seven players positions before the top of the 10th, but top prospect Gavin Lux might have hit well enough to be inserted into the lineup at second base every game, à la Corey Seager in 2015. While Kiké Hernandez and Chris Taylor might be the two best super-utility men of the last few years, they will likely see fewer starts in years past, if Lux is entrenched as their second baseman, and with either Cody Bellinger or A.J. Pollock in center field.

    After hitting on numerous first round picks in recent years in Walker Buehler, Corey Seager, and Clayton Kershaw, a 12th-round pick has been another important rookie for the Dodgers’ offense. Matt Beaty, who has seen time at first, third, left, and right field, has slugged .479 in 253 plate appearances.

    In the end, the question will be whether the bridge to Kenley Jansen is sturdy enough to put the Dodgers over the top. Over the years, it seems like the Dodgers always have plenty of relievers who are well-above average in the regular season, but just can’t get it done in the most important moments in the postseason. This year, two frequently-used relievers, Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia, still have worrisome peripherals. Baez’ opponents’ swing percentage is at a career low 51%, and Garcia has a drastic separation between his ERA, which is sub 3.50, and his FIP, which is above 5.00, the only reliever with that distinguishable a separation.

    Washington Nationals
    Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez
    Bullpen: Sean Doolittle, Erick Fedde, Daniel Hudson, Tanner Rainey, Fernando Rodney, Hunter Strickland, Wander Suero
    Lineup: C- Yan Gomes, 1B- Howie Kendrick/Matt Adams/Ryan Zimmerman 2B*- Asdrubal Cabrera/Brian Dozier, SS- Trea Turner, 3B- Anthony Rendon, LF- Juan Soto, CF- Victor Robles, RF- Adam Eaton
    Bench: Kurt Suzuki, Michael A. Taylor, Gerardo Parra

    Key decisions: Bullpen composition and usage

    The last two times the Nationals were in the playoffs, in 2016, and 2017, they carried only 11 pitchers, which is something they can do again in 2019, simply because they don’t have 12 pitchers Davey Martinez should trust to get big outs in October. The Nationals are going to need their big three of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin to all go deep into games.

    The Nationals, like the Braves, made three relief acquisitions, and they haven’t worked out quite as well. Daniel Hudson has been dependable, but Roenis Elias is out with a hamstring strain, while old foe Hunter Strickland has an 8.59 ERA in September, far from the perfect form he displayed when he was called up in September of 2014 by the Giants on their way to a World Series. Elsewhere in the bullpen, walks have been a problem for Tanner Rainey, but his fastball does rank in the top five in the Majors among relievers with a 97.9 average velocity.

    You may think veteran Howie Kendrick may lack the power you’d want from a prototypical first baseman, but he still possesses some sneaky power with a .237 ISO (Slugging Percentage – Batting Average), which ranks 13th among 38 players with 300 Plate Appearances and 40% of games played at first base. Kendrick is hitting .341 this season, and .421 since his return from injury on August 12th, which should get him most, if not all the starts at first over sluggers Matt Adams and Ryan Zimmerman. While Victor Robles’ defensive breakout has been everything the Nationals fans’ have wanted lest no one forget that Michael A. Taylor is coming off two seasons where he collectively saved 18 runs, and is a perfect fourth outfielder for the playoffs.

    Milwaukee Brewers
    Pitching Staff: Matt Albers, Chase Anderson, Ray Black, Alex Claudio, Kyle Davies, Gio Gonzalez, Junior Guerra, Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Brandon Woodruff
    Lineup: C- Yasmani Grandal, 1B- Eric Thames, 2B- Keston Huira, SS- Orlando Arcia, 3B- Mike Moustakas, LF- Ryan Braun, CF- Lorenzo Cain, RF- Trent Grisham
    Bench: Manny Piña, Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez, Ben Gamel, Tyler Austin

    Key decisions: Use an opener?

    Everyone counted out the Milwaukee Brewers when they lost reigning NL MVP, Christian Yelich. Somehow, the Brewers went on a huge run in September. The run has drawn comparison to their late-September run to the NL Wild Card in 2008, led by the aforementioned, and soon-to-be-retiring CC Sabathia.

    First round pick Trent Grisham has filled in nicely for Yelich, hitting .265/.409/.529 since the rightfielder was injured. Tyler Austin, who was in the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup in 2018, is with his fourth team since, and has two big go-ahead RBIs this month.

    The Brewers might get as creative as they did last year, when they took on a postseason version of the Rays’ Opener strategy, including duping the entire baseball world when they used started Wade Miley as an opener. Jordan Lyles has become for the Brewers’ what Kelly Johnson was for the Mets, being acquired mid-season for the second straight year. The swingman has only started for the Brewers this year, after only relieving for them last year. Over the past two seasons, Lyles has a combined 4.86 ERA with the two teams he was acquired from, and a 2.62 ERA with the Brewers.

    Junior Guerra has transitioned into the bullpen nicely and could be key in getting the ball to Josh Hader at game’s end. He’s mixing his pitches as much as he did when he was a starter, he throws his fastball 60% of the time, with the distribution of two-seam and four-seam being almost almost even at 29% and 31%, his splitter at 22%, and his curveball at 19%.

    Whatever formula the general managers of each team do go with, the construction of rosters, whether for the regular season, the Wild Card Game, or for a postseason series, always fascinates me.

    While I might not be able to tell you who this year’s Steve Pearce will be, I can say that some of the decisions made will likely have significant ramifications on who wins the World Series.

  • Scouting some of Japan’s top potential major league hitters

    By Will Hoefer

    At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams.

    Our first section will focus on the best MLB-eligible hitters (eligible through the posting system). We’ll touch on pitchers in the next piece.

    There will be some notable exceptions from this series, mainly SS Hayato Sakamoto from Yomiuri, OF Seiya Suzuki from Hiroshima, and OF Yuki Yanagita from Fukuoka SoftBank. But whether it be lack of interest in leaving their current situation (Sakamoto), a more imminent posting candidate on their team (Suzuki), or injury concerns relative to a comparable teammate (Yanagita), I thought it was best to focus on one of their teammates instead of them.

    While the primary focus of this series is to examine the skills and performance of NPB players that I think are most likely to be on the radar of MLB organizations, it should not be taken strictly as a list of players coming to the United States to play baseball in 2020. External factors may contribute to the decisions of some. Also, 10 of the 12 players in this series can only be signed through the posting system. Since the new posting system was ratified in 2013 only five players have been signed through it.

    I hope you enjoy reading this series as much as I have enjoyed writing it. All of the players featured are fun to watch, and I hope this encourages you to learn more about leagues that are outside of affiliated and amateur baseball.

    Stats through September 24
    Tetsuto Yamada, 2B, Yakult

    Yamada is often referred to as the “Mike Trout of Japan.” He has accumulated 311 total runs since the start of the 2018 season, the most among NPB batters by quite a large margin. For comparison purposes, his compatriot Trout has led MLB hitters with 317 total runs over the same timeframe.

    Yamada mixes plus hitting and running ability with above average power that could be a plus if he can demonstrate more barrel control through the zone. He’s also a good defender at second base, registering 8 PART (Positioning, Airball, Range and Throwing) runs above average from the start of 2018 to present day action.

    The multi million dollar question, though, is will any MLB team be willing to match the supremely high posting fees Yakult asks for the right to negotiate a contract with Yamada. Yamada profiles as a middle of the order offensive threat with above average defensive at a premium position, which should command a nine figure payday on the open market when you factor in his relatively young age (27) among other options. The Giants make sense on paper, since they expressed an interest in going after Bryce Harper to jumpstart their rebuild last offseason and have a need in the middle infield.

    Tetsuto Yamada PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 514 .274 .403 .566 35 33 17.1% 19.1%
    Career 4260 .297 .401 .534 202 168 14.1% 17.1%

    Shogo Akiyama, OF, Seibu

    Shogo Akiyama is certainly a name to watch right now for MLB teams, as he is a free agent at the end of the 2019 season and won’t be subject to the posting system because he has over nine years of NPB service time. Seibu has reportedly offered a 4 year, ¥ 2 billion contract–the equivalent of $19 million USD–to try and keep their star player a Lion for years to come. This puts us in a unique situation to try and evaluate Akiyama’s market. Any MLB team that’s interested will likely need to see him as a starting outfielder for their club, lest he be willing to take a fairly significant pay cut to play in America.

    The good news on that front is that Akiyama has starting outfielder tools right now. His quick hands and good bat speed give him above-average game power and hit tools, albeit with some concerns about rigidity in his wrists and his occasional issues falling out of the batter’s box on contact. He’s an above-average runner in his early 30s, and while he does show good range and jumps in center, advanced defensive metrics–which should be taken with a grain of salt since they are a fairly new phenomenon in evaluating NPB players–are lukewarm at best and show a decline in Runs Saved from his earlier years in center field.

    Akiyama’s combination of strong on base skills and solid power, in addition to solid center field defense should be plenty to stick in the everyday lineup for a first division team in 2020. But there’s reason to believe that this is the beginning of a decline phase defensively for Akiyama, in which case interested teams might need to consider what a move to a corner spot long term would do to their valuation of him. Cleveland would be a strong fit, since it needs offensive in the outfield badly and could probably afford to give Oscar Mercado the reins in center field going forward.

    Shogo Akiyama PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 675 .305 .394 .474 20 12 11.6% 15.0%
    Career 5181 .301 .376 .454 116 112 9.9% 15.0%

    Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh, OF/1B/3B, Yokohama

    Tsutsugoh has long been viewed as a player who could immediately contribute to any MLB team. One look at his swing and you can see why. He exhibits the bat control and hand quickness of a plus hitter with the bat speed and lower half mechanics to generate plus power. He’s arguably the most polished hitter of any domestic hitter in the NPB, as there’s no wasted movement in his load and his wrists are loose and quick.

    There’s defensive issues that will cap his value. Tsutsugoh is a well below-average runner who shows poor reactions both in the infield and the outfield, though with his plus arm he could be hidden in right field with strong positioning. Yokohama has used him as a third baseman with some frequency this year, but he lacks the foot speed and reflexes necessary to field that position with any long term success.

    With that said, Tsutsugoh should be considered by teams as a DH/1B type if he ends up on the posting market. The White Sox, who not only have a massive hole at DH but will have to make a decision on whether or not they can afford to retain pending free agent first baseman José Abreu, make a lot of sense as a fit for Yokohama’s franchise slugger.

    Yoshitomo Tsutsugoh PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 553 .272 .388 .511 29 0 15.9% 25.3%
    Career 3426 .285 .382 .528 205 6 13.3% 20.8%

    Ryosuke Kikuchi, 2B/SS, Hiroshima

    Simply put, Ryosuke Kikuchi is one of Japan’s premier glovemen. He leads all NPB second basemen with 20 Defensive Runs Saved since the beginning of 2018–when BIS started keeping track of Runs Saved for NPB fielders. He’s got a plus-plus glove at second base, but he lacks the arm strength to really excel anywhere else on the diamond. He’d probably be OK at shortstop, but his best fit is an everyday role at the keystone.

    Kikuchi’s offensive contributions are light; he’s been a slightly above-average hitter in his career to date. He’s a very small guy–5’7”, 152 lbs–that puts the ball in the air too much. He shows decent bat speed, controls the plate, and demonstrates quick wrists when he’s in a groove that allows him to whip the bat through the zone and hit line drives.

    This approach also lets him take advantage of plus speed to beat out grounders and stretch hits for extra bases. When he starts trying to elevate he loses barrel control and doesn’t really have the requisite strength to take advantage of the juiced ball even if he did control the barrel well on elevated strikes.

    Kikuchi has expressed interest in a move to MLB via the posting system this offseason. He lacks the power to really contribute with his bat, but there are teams that could definitely use his defensive contributions at second base that could take the offensive hit. He’d profile as a bottom of the order contact nuisance that offers plus defense at second base.

    Ryosuke Kikuchi PA AVG OBP SLG HR SB BB% K%
    2019 595 .261 .312 .404 13 14 6.7% 16.6%
    Career 4671 .271 .315 .391 85 107 5.6% 16.2%