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Month: December 2019

  • Stat of the Week: The Fielding Bible All-Decade Team

    By Mark Simon

    Since 2006, Baseball Info Solutions has used The Fielding Bible Awards as its means of honoring the top defensive players in baseball. The Fielding Bible Awards have been voted on by a panel of experts – baseball writers, broadcasters, statistical analysts, and former major league players. Voting is based on both visual observation and performance in objective fielding metrics. With that in mind, we decided to take the voting from past Fielding Bible Awards and use it to come up with a team of the best defensive players in the 2010s.

    Our methodology for picking the All-Decade representatives was to use the Fielding Bible voting that was conducted annually throughout the decade. The player with the highest summed vote total from the 10 seasons was deemed the winner at that position. Note that for the years 2010 to 2012, each player’s vote total was multiplied by 1.2 to account for the use of 10 voters in those years compared to 12 in the other years.

    Fielding Bible Award Vote Leaders, 2010-2019
    PositionPlayer
    First BasePaul Goldschmidt
    Second BaseDustin Pedroia
    ShortstopAndrelton Simmons
    Third BaseNolan Arenado
    Left FieldAlex Gordon
    Center FieldLorenzo Cain
    Right FieldJason Heyward
    CatcherYadier Molina
    PitcherZack Greinke
    Multi-PositionJavier Báez

    Paul Goldschmidt starred for the Diamondbacks for most of the decade. His three Fielding Bible Awards (2013, 2015, 2017) were the most of anyone at first base in the 2010s. Goldschmidt’s 9.5 Scoop Runs Saved rank second to Freddie Freeman among first basemen this decade.

    Dustin Pedroia’s four Fielding Bible Awards (2011, 2013, 2014, 2016) are the most for any second baseman since BIS began presenting the honor in 2006. Known for a distinct and sizable crow hop that he combined with great anticipatory skills, Pedroia twice led the position in Defensive Runs Saved during the 2010s and had four straight seasons with at least 10 Runs Saved.

    Andrelton Simmons is the only player to win a Fielding Bible Award in six straight seasons. He did it in his first six full seasons in the major leagues (2013 to 2018). His 193 Defensive Runs Saved are the most of any player at any position for the decade, 115 more than the shortstop with the next-highest total (Brandon Crawford, 78).

    Nolan Arenado didn’t win a Fielding Bible Award until his third major league season, but once he did, he won three in a row (2015 to 2017). Arenado’s 105 Defensive Runs Saved were the most of any third baseman this decade, even though he didn’t start playing until 2013.

    Alex Gordon has had staying power. His four Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2013, 2014, 2018) are the most of any left fielder, edging Brett Gardner and Carl Crawford by one. His 45 Outfield Arm Runs Saved this decade were the key to his success. They are the most by any outfielder in the 2010s.

    Lorenzo Cain became the first center fielder to win the Fielding Bible Award in consecutive seasons (2018, 2019) and also won the Multi-Position award in 2014. Cain’s specialty has been chasing down the deep fly ball. In 2019 he tied the single-season mark for home run robberies (5) since BIS began tracking them in 2004.

    Jason Heyward’s consistently excellent defense won him three Fielding Bible Awards (2012, 2014, 2015). He reached double-digits in Defensive Runs Saved in right field in each of the first eight years of the decade. His 141 Runs Saved from Range & Positioning are more than double the next-highest total of any right fielder this decade.

    Yadier Molina won three Fielding Bible Awards in the 2000s and three more in the 2010s, giving him six in total. That ties Andrelton Simmons for the most such awards won. Molina set the mark for most Defensive Runs Saved by a catcher with 30 in 2013 (since tied by Roberto Pérez in 2019). He also totaled 29 in 2012 and 26 in 2010.

    Zack Greinke’s only Fielding Bible Awards came the last two seasons. But he’s been in the hunt frequently, finishing second four times this decade. Greinke’s kept himself in top shape and been a standout athlete throughout his career. That’s allowed him to get off the mound aggressively to make plays that other pitchers don’t make.

    Javier Báez won the Multi-Position award in three consecutive seasons (2016, 2017, 2018) so he comes out on top. This award comes with an asterisk in that it wasn’t given out until 2014. Had it been awarded for the entirety of the decade, there’s a chance that Ben Zobrist, who played excellent defense at second base and in the outfield, would have edged Báez out.

    For more statistical leaders, check out the 2020 Bill James Handbook and the Sports Info Solutions blog.

  • Using SIS Projections for this Sunday’s Draft Kings games

    By Cole Ratliff

    Week 17 is upon us, the last week for a full slate of games and another week for redemption.   I’ve done my research once again using SIS fantasy projections and other sources to come up with an optimal lineup for DraftKings.  This lineup is used for all the games on Sunday, excluding the Sunday night game between San Francisco and Seattle:

    DFS (DraftKings) Lineup: Sunday Games Excluding the Sunday night game

    • QB: Matt Ryan ATL – $6,500
      • The Falcons QB is due for a top fantasy performance this week.  He has averaged over 20 fantasy points the past four weeks and faces a Tampa Bay defense near the bottom of the league in passing defense.  Look for a lot of yards and TDs in this game as he could be the Top QB in Fantasy this week.
    • RB: Melvin Gordon LAC – $6,000
      • Last week I took Austin Ekeler, this week I take Gordon in the Chargers backfield.  Gordon gets his share of targets and with two one-yard TDs last week, he is the goal line option as well.  Look for those factors to add up the points this week against the division rival Chiefs.
    • RB: Miles Sanders PHI – $6,800
      • With a low salary relative to his production the past two weeks, Sanders was a must have.  He has scored 64.8 points the past two games and see no sign of slowing down. Being the lead back going against a weak New York Giants defense, Sanders will get plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers.
    • WR: Kenny Golladay DET – $6,300
      • Golladay seems to be a favorite of Rookie QB David Blough as has averaged nine targets the past three weeks.  Projected as a Top-5 Fantasy WR, he was a great pick given his relatively low salary compared to his production.
    • WR: Christian Kirk ARI – $4,700
      • To fit within the DraftKings budget, I took Kirk.  He will continue to get his good share of targets which afford him more playmaking opportunities.  Look for a bounce back week after an off week in Week 16.
    • WR: Golden Tate NYG – $5,100
      • With Daniel Jones back at QB, Tate saw 11 targets last week.  This week should be no different as he will be an integral part of the offense.  When given big target shares, Tate performs and puts up big points.
    • TE: Jack Doyle IND – $4,100
      • With our projections having Doyle as a Top-10 fantasy TE, I had to pick him.  The fact that he has a low salary and facing a middle of the pack defense in Jacksonville helped in the decision.
    • FLEX: Nick Chubb CLE – $7,500
      • Chubb has been the Browns best player and while he may have been slowed down by a Baltimore defense keying on him, don’t look for that this week.  Cincinnati has the worst ranked run defense in the league, so Chubb will get plenty of carries as the Browns try to keep their playoff hopes alive.
    • DEF: Green Bay Packers – $3,000
      • I went Packers defense simply because the Packers are Top-3 in INT rate and 12th in Sacks per pass attempt. Given that they are going up against a rookie QB with four games experience, their could be turnovers galore.

    It’s always tough to form a lineup given the salary restrictions.  My strategy this week was to hopefully pinpoint players that will get a lot of opportunities to score points and have proven when given those opportunities, they perform well and score lots of points. Good luck everyone playing this week. 

  • Introducing the turnover assist stat

    Football is the ultimate team sport, with the success of each play needing complete cooperation from every player on the offense or defense to properly execute their role. The NHL, MLS, and NBA all have an assist statistic, but the NFL only keeps track of assisted tackles and assisted sacks. I wanted to find a way to give defenders who have made plays that resulted in a turnover, but didn’t come up with it themselves, a trackable stat that goes beyond the box score. This is where turnover assists come in.

    I’ve defined turnover assists as plays where one defender assists another player on the defense in coming up with a turnover. Actions that count as assists include pressures on plays where there is an interception, deflected or defensed passes that are intercepted, and forced fumbles that are recovered by a teammate.

    League Leaders in Turnover Assists
    Rank Name Team Deflected Passes Pressures Forced Fumbles Total
    T-1 Danielle Hunter Vikings 0 3 3 6
    T-1 Shaquil Barrett Buccaneers 0 2 4 6
    T-2 Nick Bosa 49ers 0 5 0 5
    T-2 Matt Judon Ravens 0 3 2 5
    T-2 Whitney Mercilus Texans 0 2 3 5

     

    Looking at the league leaders in turnover assists, we see players who are primarily used as pass rushers, which isn’t surprising. Impressively, Hunter and Barrett have double the turnover assists of the entire Chargers defense, and the same number of assists as the Panthers. 

    Most turnover assists come from pressures and forced fumbles, things that pass rushers specialize in creating, but what about the players on the back end of the defense?

    League Leaders in Turnover Assists (DBs)
    Rank Name Team Deflected Passes Pressures Forced Fumbles Total
    1 Jabrill Peppers Giants 0 0 3 3
    T-2 Adrian Amos Packers 2 0 0 2
    T-2 Stephon Gilmore Patriots 2 0 0 2
    T-2 Darnell Savage Packers 1 1 0 2
    T-2 Budda Baker Cardinals 1 1 0 2
    T-2 Patrick Peterson Cardinals 1 0 1 2
    T-2 Minkah Fitzpatrick Dolphins/Steelers 1 0 1 2
    T-2 Brandon Carr Ravens 0 2 0 2
    T-2 Devin McCourty Patriots 0 1 1 2
    T-2 Jonathan Jones Patriots 0 0 2 2
    T-2 Nickell Robey-Coleman Rams 0 0 2 2

     

    Some of the top defensive backs in the NFL this season have not only come up with their own turnovers, but have helped their teammates produce them as well. Stephon Gilmore, Devin McCourty, and Jonathan Jones of the New England Patriots all have come up with two assists for their defense. Of the Patriots 36 takeaways, 19 of them have come off an assist from a teammate. This is no surprise given that Gilmore ranks third in Pass Defense Points Saved and McCourty ranks 17th.

    As a defense, the Patriots rank second in turnover assists, trailing only the Vikings who have assisted on 20 of their 30 takeaways. Led by Danielle Hunter’s 6 assists, the Vikings have had 12 different players assist on a turnover so far this season, tied with the Steelers for the most in the league. The Vikings will need their defense to keep working together if they are to get through a difficult playoff field in the NFC this postseason.

    The full teams leaderboard is below.

    Turnover Assists by Team
    Ranking Team Total Above/Below

    Average (11)
    1 Vikings 20 9
    2 Patriots 19 8
    T-3 Steelers 18 7
    T-3 Buccaneers 18 7
    5 49ers 17 6
    T-6 Seahawks 16 5
    T-6 Ravens 16 5
    8 Colts 15 4
    9 Texans 14 3
    T-10 Saints 12 1
    T-10 Rams 12 1
    T-12 Cowboys 11 0
    T-12 Browns 11 0
    T-12 Broncos 11 0
    T-12 Bears 11 0
    T-16 Packers 10 -1
    T-16 Giants 10 -1
    T-16 Chiefs 10 -1
    T-16 Bills 10 -1
    T-16 Bengals 10 -1
    T-21 Redskins 9 -2
    T-21 Lions 9 -2
    T-21 Jaguars 9 -2
    T-21 Eagles 9 -2
    T-21 Cardinals 9 -2
    26 Raiders 8 -3
    T-27 Titans 7 -4
    T-27 Jets 7 -4
    T-27 Falcons 7 -4
    T-27 Dolphins 7 -4
    31 Panthers 6 -5
    32 Chargers 3 -8

     

  • New football podcast: Week 17 preview

    Listen here

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) take a look at different playoff scenarios and preview the most important games for Week 17 of the NFL season: Eagles at Giants (1:54), Redskins at Cowboys (6:50), Titans at Texans (15:32) and 49ers at Seahawks (18:55).

    You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out

    sportsinfosolutions.com

    footballoutsiders.com

    sportsinfosolutionsblog.com

    SISDataHub.com.

  • Using SIS projections for this Sunday’s DFS possibilities

    By Cole Ratliff

    Week 16 is upon us, and for most fantasy leagues this is championship week.  Good luck to those who are in their league’s championship game. For those not competing for their league’s crown, there are still daily fantasy leagues with plenty of opportunities to win.  I’ve done my research using SIS fantasy projections and other sources to come up with an optimal lineup for DraftKings.  This lineup is used for the 11 games on Sunday and doesn’t include the three Saturday games:

    DFS (DraftKings) Lineup: Sunday Games

    • QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick – MIA – $6,000
      • Fitzpatrick has scored 20-plus points in three of his last four games, and he is facing a Cincinnati defense that is in the bottom five in the NFL in total yards per game and total yards per play given up.  With the addition of Fitzpatrick’s recent scrambling success (he leads the Dolphins in rushing!), he is a good QB play this week.
    • RB: Austin Ekeler – LAC – $6,100
      • When constructing this lineup, I started with Ekeler given his ability and relatively low salary.  Ekeler has been a quality receiver out of the backfield this season in addition to his contributions in the running game.  He leads all RBs in receiving yards and TDs, and is second in receptions. Along with that, the Raiders give up the most yards per passing play in the NFL.
    • RB: Joe Mixon – CIN – $6,600
      • Mixon is always a solid fantasy play as the No. 1 rush option in Cincinnati (he is fifth in rushing attempts in the NFL).  Going against the second-worst rushing defense by yards per game, Mixon promises to get plenty of chances against the Dolphins.
    • WR: Courtland Sutton – DEN – $6,200
      • Sutton’s combination of small salary and big target share is enticing.  Sutton and the Broncos are taking on the 31st-ranked pass defense in the Detroit Lions.  Look for QB Drew Lock to target Sutton early and often.
    • WR: Terry McLaurin – WAS – $6,200
      • McLaurin is a big play threat coming off a 130 yard and 1-TD performance, and this week should be a continuation of that.  With Dwayne Haskins continuing to improve, look for McLaurin to have a big day against the Giants.
    • WR: Diontae Johnson – PIT – $4,700
      • Johnson is my value play for this week.  He is projected as a top-15 option at a salary of only $4,700.  With Juju Smith-Schuster injured and ineffective, Johnson has stepped up as the primary target in Pittsburgh.  He will get plenty of targets against an average Jets pass defense.
    • TE: Jacob Hollister – SEA – $4,200
      • Hollister is a value at the TE position.  He is a touchdown-dependant option, but Arizona is the last ranked defense against the pass and against opposing tight ends, so Hollister could have a good day against a weaker defense.
    • FLEX: Leonard Fournette – JAX – $7,200
      • Fournette has been reliable all season in the run game, and he has been more involved in the pass game of late.  I think he could be headed towards a big week against the Falcons. His projection has him getting him getting close to 30 touches, and I can see him finishing top 3 among fantasy RBs this week.
    • DEF: Washington Defense – $2,800
      • Defense is usually my last pick because of priority.  The other position groups are more important and can yield more points.  Washington looks to be a good play here because it is top-10 in both sacks and takeaways.  If Daniel Jones starts, it could be good news for Washington as the rookie QB has committed 21 turnovers on the season.

     

    • Total Salary: $50,000

     

    I came in on the number on my salary this week.  Given each player projections and opponents, this could be a big Week 16.  I know everyone has different strategies when it comes to daily fantasy, but I like my approach this week of spreading out my salary to all positions instead of focusing my salary on two or three players.  Good luck everyone and I look forward to seeing how this lineup plays out.

    To purchase the SIS Fantasy Football projections for Week 16, go to this link.

  • Top Prop Bets for Saturday NFL Games

    By Steve Schwartz

    Instead of one Thursday night game, the NFL has provided a juicy three-game Saturday schedule for your enjoyment. Unfortunately, there are a lot of question marks for the Houston-Tampa Bay contest which limits our options in the opener, but we have found a number of favorable odds for you to take advantage in the final two games.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 25-21, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last eight weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.

    1) Cooper Kupp, under 4.5 receptions, +105

    Kupp has been targeted less often as the season has progressed, seeing an average of 10.9 targets through Week 8, but just 5.5 targets since. And in the first meeting between the two teams on October 13, he managed just four catches for 17 yards as the 49ers defense dominated the Rams offense. SIS analysis predicts just 3.5 receptions for the Rams slot receiver making a fair price -264, but we are getting +105.

    2) George Kittle, over 5.5 receptions, -137

    Kittle is coming off his best game of the season catching 13-of-17 targets. He’s caught at least six balls in five of the last six games and nine of 12 this season. In the first meeting with the Rams, he caught all eight targets that came in his direction. SIS data is expecting another big effort from Kittle, with 10.2 targets, 7.1 receptions and 91.9 yards. A fair price should be -247, but it’s currently just -137.

    3) Tom Brady, over 20.5 completions, -127

    The Patriots running games has been mostly nonexistent this season, which is why Tom Brady will likely finish the season with more than 600 passing attempts. As long as Julian Edelman is active, Brady will continue to fire early and often. He’s completed 20 or more passes in 10-of-15 games this season and our analysis predicts 37.4 passing attempts and 23.3 completions, covering the number easily. The fair price is -246, so it’s a bargain at -127.

    4) Cameron Brate, score a touchdown, +425

    The Buccaneers are running out of pass catchers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller will all be watching from the sidelines. That leaves wideout Breshad Perriman and a pair of tight ends, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, as the primary options. Brate has a history of getting into the end zone, having scored 20 times from 2016-2018. Brate scored on 16% of his receptions over that span and will be a solid option for Jameis Winston in Week 16. SIS data predicts 5.6 targets and 3.7 catches with a 39% chance of scoring. That means a fair price is +203, but we are getting +425.

    5) Cole Beasley, score a touchdown, +450.

    Beasley has become a touchdown scorer in Buffalo, having reached the end zone in six of the last nine Bills games. He has a great chance to add to the total in Week 16 as he should see plenty of work with deep threat John Brown likely to be covered by the Patriots top CB Stephon Gilmore. When the two teams played in September, Beasley saw 13 targets and caught seven balls. While he probably won’t see that many targets this time around, SIS data still shows a 37% chance to score. Take the +450.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Deshaun Watson, 1.5, odds not listed

    Jameis Winston, 1.5, odds not listed

    Josh Allen, 0.5, over -200/under +160

    Tom Brady, 1.5, over +117/under -148

    Jared Goff, 1.5, over +110/under -137

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -121/under -103

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Deshaun Watson, 0.5, odds not listed

    Jameis Winston, 0.5, odds not listed

    Josh Allen, 0.5, over -137/under +110

    Tom Brady, 0.5, over -109/under -115

    Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +135

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -124/under +100

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Deshaun Watson, not listed

    Jameis Winston, not listed

    Josh Allen, 17.5 completions, over -103/under -141

    Tom Brady, 20.5 completions, over -127/under -113

    Jared Goff, not listed

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 21.5 completions, over -103/under -140

    Touchdown Scorers

    Houston Texans

    ———————

    DeAndre Hopkins -106

    Carlos Hyde +120

    Will Fuller +130

    Kenny Stills +180

    Deshaun Watson +225

    Duke Johnson +260

    Darren Fells +325

    Tampa Bay

    —————

    Ronald Jones +150

    Breshad Perriman +145

    Peyton Barber +200

    Justin Watson +210

    O.J. Howard +240

    Cameron Brate +425

    Dare Ogunbowale +375

    Jameis Winston +800

    Buffalo

    ———

    John Brown +350

    Devin Singletary +220

    Josh Allen +250

    Cole Beasley +450

    Frank Gore +450

    New England Patriots

    —————————-

    Julian Edelman +200

    Sony Michel +110

    James White +225

    Rex Burkhead +325

    Mohamed Sanu +350

    N’Keal Harry +450

    Tom Brady +650

    Los Angeles Rams

    ————————

    Brandin Cooks +325

    Todd Gurley -106

    Cooper Kupp +225

    Robert Woods +275

    Malcolm Brown +325

    Tyler Higbee +325

    Gerald Everett +375

    Jared Goff +850

    San Francisco

    ——————

    Raheem Mostert +110

    George Kittle +130

    Emmanuel Sanders +180

    Deebo Samuel +180

    Matt Breida +285

    Tevin Coleman +300

    Kendrick Bourne +325

    Jimmy Garoppolo +800

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Buffalo at New England –

    James White, 4.5 receptions, over +100/under -125

    Cole Beasley, 4.5 receptions, over +121/under -152

    John Brown, 3.5 receptions, over -122/under -103

    Los Angeles at San Francisco –

    Deebo Samuel, 3.5 receptions, over +105/under -130

    Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5 receptions, over -155/under +125

    Cooper Kupp, 4.5 receptions, over -130/under +105

    Robert Woods, 4.5 receptions, over -148/under +117

    George Kittle, 5.5 receptions, over -137/under +110

  • Which NFL Teams Are Leading the League in Luck?

    By Mike Lounsberry

    A certain amount of luck is needed each week to win games in the NFL. One play can be the deciding factor between winning and losing, and a lucky bounce of the ball here and there can be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home in January. I wanted to take a look at which teams have been the luckiest through the first 15 weeks of the season.

    First, I need to explain the metrics I used to determine luck. I looked at the fumble recovery rate for each type of fumble–sack, rushing, and receiving–for every team, and then used this formula to determine Fumbles Recovered Above Expected:

    Fumbles Recovered Above Expected = Sum of (Team Fumble Recoveries – (Team Fumble Recovery Opportunities * NFL Average Recovery Rate for that Fumble Type))

    Fumbles Recovered Above Expected Leaders and Trailers
    Rank Team Sack Fumbles Above Expected Receiving Fumbles Above Expected Rushing Fumbles Above Expected Total Fumbles Above Expected
    1 Seahawks 3.0 -0.1 0.5 3.4
    2 Buccaneers 1.5 0.9 1.0 3.4
    3 Cowboys 1.0 -0.3 2.1 2.8
    …
    30 Bills -1.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0
    31 Dolphins -1.5 -0.6 -2.4 -4.6
    32 Falcons -0.5 -1.9 -2.9 -5.3

    Defenses can also benefit by lucking into what we’ll call unforced interceptions. Unforced interceptions include interceptions on throws that are both unpressured and inaccurate, dropped catches by offensive players that are intercepted, and interceptions by players that are blitzing.

    League Leaders in Unforced Interceptions
    Rank Team Total Unpressured Dropped Catches Blitzing
    1 Steelers 10 6 4 0
    2 Seahawks 9 4 4 1
    T-3 Bills 7 5 0 2
    T-3 Patriots 7 5 1 1
    League Trailers in Unforced Interceptions
    Rank Team Total Unpressured Dropped Catches Blitzing
    T-32 Cardinals 1 1 0 0
    T-32 Eagles 1 0 1 0
    T-32 Giants 1 1 0 0
    T-32 Lions 1 0 1 0
    T-32 Rams 1 0 1 0
    T-32 Texans 1 1 0 0

    To put it all together and determine which teams are the luckiest and unluckiest at getting turnovers, I used this formula:

    Turnovers Above Expected = (Unforced Interceptions – League Average Unforced Interceptions) + Fumbles Recovered Above Expected

    Rank Team Total
    1 Seahawks 8.6
    2 Steelers 7.4
    3 Buccaneers 3.6
    …
    30 Dolphins -4.4
    31 Cardinals -5.8
    32 Falcons -6.2

    The Seahawks have had the luckiest defense in the league through 15 weeks, with almost nine turnovers above their expected total, bolstered by their ability to be gifted interceptions by the opposing team’s offense, whether it be through quarterback or receiver error.

    On the other end of the spectrum are the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons defense has seen 14 fumbles but is dead last in the league in Total Fumbles Recovered Above Expected. In addition, they rank tied for 22nd in unforced interceptions above expected. They’ve benefited from a total of 6.2 turnovers fewer than expected. The Cardinals are right with them at 5.8 fewer turnovers than expected.

    Still, it might be fair to say that the Colts have had the worst Luck of all this year…

  • When a sack is not a sack (Part II)

    By Mike Churchward

    In June,  I wrote about a specific play in college football–in which a quirk in the NCAA scoring rules results in a sack not actually being scored as such. Now I’m sharing another type of play in which the logical scoring of the play should be a sack, but it is not.

    According to the 2019 NCAA statistical guide:

    “For plays that end either on the line of scrimmage or beyond, there is no pass sack credited, but rather it is considered a rushing play. There can be no pass sack (or tackle for loss) without loss of yardage.”  

    The reason why this ruling is significant is that there are plenty of sacks that also have fumbles. If the ball is fumbled forward to, or beyond, the line of scrimmage then the play is considered a rush and not a sack.

    This ruling does not include whether the ball is recovered by the offense or the defense, just that the ball is fumbled to, or beyond, the line of scrimmage. This means that the defender that hit the quarterback, and caused the fumble, does not get credit for a sack because the result of the play did not lose any yards.

    Much like our previous example, this play is a rarity, but it occurs enough to where it can affect this major statistical category.

    While Chase Young (who is the current leader in sacks) has not been affected by his rule, there are other notable players who have been. Alabama’s Anfernee Jennings (lost a sack vs South Carolina),  Oregon State’s Hamilcar Rashed Jr. (lost a sack vs Cal Poly), West Virginia’s Dante Stills (lost a sack vs Kansas) and Wisconsin’s Zack Baun (lost a sack vs Michigan) are just a few players whose sack totals have been affected by this obscure rule.

    The NFL addresses this type of play in a completely different manner.

    According the 2019 NFL Guide for Statisticians:

     “If a teammate or opponent recovers beyond the line of scrimmage, credit the passer with a sack for 0 yards.”

    This seems like a better way to record this play, as it gives credit to all the players that are involved in the play. The defender that hits the quarterback and causes the fumble will get credit for a 0-yard sack, a tackle for loss and a forced fumble.

    The way the NCAA handles this situation is shortchanging the defensive player who caused the fumble. The NCAA only gives credit for the fumble while the NFL appropriately assigns the correct defensive statistics to the right player. Once again, the two most popular levels of football do not agree on how to record a sack.

  • Top Prop Bets for Ravens vs. Jets

    By Steve Schwartz

    It will be cold in Baltimore Thursday night, but that shouldn’t bother these two northeast teams and the wind should not be a factor. However, in Week 15, when no player is completely healthy, pay attention to the active/inactive list before proceeding; some key players on the Ravens’ offense (Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews) have been limping around at practice this week.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 24-18, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last seven weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.

    1) Lamar Jackson, over 17.5 completions, -112.

    Jackson hasn’t completed more than 17 passes in seven games, but an injured quad is likely to keep his running to a minimum, forcing him to stay in the pocket and pass the ball more often. They could also try using more of Mark Ingram, but the Jets are No. 2 in rushing yards allowed … just 78.8 ypg. Meanwhile, New York is yielding 23.2 completions per game (23rd overall). Jackson should display his ability to throw from the pocket and cover this number easily. SIS analysis expects 21.2 completions making a fair price -380, but we are only paying -112. Best bet of the night.

    2) Le’Veon Bell, under 3.5 receptions, +118.

    Bell has seen just 16 targets over the past four games. That’s half the targets he saw in the first four games of the season. Bell is seeing less usage as time goes by, both rushing and receiving. SIS data sets his expected targets at 3.7 and receptions at 2.6. A fair market value for this prop bet is -279, but the actual number is +118.

    3) Robby Anderson, score a touchdown, +375.

    Anderson has finally started to look like the guy we thought he was. He’s caught a touchdown pass in three of the last four games. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been featuring him the past two games and because of this Anderson has racked up double-digit targets in both. We assume the 16-point favorite Ravens will be out front for most of the game and the Jets will play catch up which can only be good news for Anderson’s chances. SIS data gives the Jets star wideout a 34-percent chance to catch a touchdown pass which translates to a fair number at +286, but the casino offer is +375.

    4) Ty Montgomery, score a touchdown, +900.

    Montgomery has yet to score a touchdown this season, but the wide receiver-turned-running back figures to see a bigger role in Week 15 due to the absence of Bell’s primary backup Bilal Powell (ankle). Although Monty is also less than 100-percent, he is expected to play and could see close to double-digit touches, if active. SIS data suggests Bell will see a light workload, just 17 touches, opening the way for Montgomery. The casino odds of +900 are about three times what it should be.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -250/under +195

    Lamar Jackson, 1.5, over -175/under +138

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -192/under +150

    Lamar Jackson, 0.5, over +116/under -148

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Sam Darnold, 20.5 completions, over +100/under -128

    Lamar Jackson, 17.5 completions, over -112/under -112

    Touchdown Scorers

    New York Jets

    ——————-

    Le’Veon Bell +120

    Robby Anderson +375

    Jamison Crowder +325

    Daniel Brown +650

    Ty Montgomery +900

    Sam Darnold +900

    Baltimore

    ————-

    Mark Ingram -134

    Lamar Jackson -112

    Mark Andrews +150

    Marquise Brown +180

    Willie Snead IV +285

    Gus Edwards +325

    Hayden Hurst +350

    Nick Boyle +500

    Seth Roberts +600

    Justice Hill +650

    Miles Boykin +850

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    New York Jets –

    Jamison Crowder, 4.5, over +159/under -162

    Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -139/under +112

    Le’Veon Bell, 3.5, over -148/under -+118

    Baltimore –

    Marquise Brown, 3.5, over +129/under -162

  • Evaluating Infielder Throwing with the DRS PART System

    Baseball Info Solutions recently introduced a major update to Defensive Runs Saved that will be rolling out this offseason. We’re splitting DRS for infielders into Positioning, Air, Range, and Throwing components.

    In that introductory blog post, we mostly covered how this will affect the Positioning and Range components (which were previously reported together as one “Range & Positioning” metric). However, it’s also important to note how this system can estimate the value an infielder adds with his arm.

    So how do we calculate the Throwing component of the improved DRS?

    Using ball in play and positioning data charted by BIS Video Scouts, we estimate the chance that the play will be made at the point that the fielder obtains the ball, given the distance he must throw and how long he has to complete the play before the batter/runner reaches safely.

    This number is then subtracted from whether the play is made (0 or 1). That value gives us how many plays were saved by throwing, which is then multiplied by an expected run value to generate runs saved.

    Consider this play by Javier Baez. The chance that he would make the play from the point at which he obtained the ball – given his distance from first base and time to make the play – is estimated at approximately 39 percent. Baez made the play, so he’s credited with 0.61 plays saved (1 – 0.39).

    Baez is a standout with his strong throwing arm at shortstop. With our new methodology, he tied Matt Chapman at +11 Throwing Runs Saved to lead all infielders in 2019.

    Here’s a look at the top ten:

    Throwing Runs Saved Leaders, 2019

    Player Position Runs Saved
    Javier Baez SS 11
    Matt Chapman 3B 11
    Yolmer Sanchez 2B 8
    Amed Rosario SS 7
    Andrelton Simmons SS 7
    Jonathan Schoop 2B 7
    Nick Ahmed SS 7
    Tim Anderson SS 7
    Carlos Correa SS 6
    Kyle Seager 3B 6

    Over the past three seasons, the leaders are Nick Ahmed (+23), Kyle Seager (+23), Matt Chapman (+23), Jean Segura (+17), and Yolmer Sanchez (+17).

    This update to DRS allows us to not only split out the Positioning and Range components, but also to better understand an infielder’s value added with his arm. The data is now available on FieldingBible.com and will be featured in The Fielding Bible – Volume V (coming in the spring of 2020).

    Stay tuned for more information and updates regarding this improvement to DRS.