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Author: Jon Becker

  • Which Crosstown Team Would Be Best?

    By JON BECKER

    Yesterday, SNY’s Andy Martino tweeted a question to his followers: Would an All-New York team, made up of players from the Mets and Yankees, win the World Series?

    I tend to think yes, and pretty easily to boot. But would the New York Mankees (Yets? Metsees?) be best of the crosstown teams? Let’s find out by making three teams, one for each of the three cities with two teams, and comparing. Let’s start with the offenses:

    STARTING LINEUPS

     New YorkLos AngelesChicago
    CGary Sanchez (NYY)Will Smith (LAD)Willson Contreras (CHC)
    1BPete Alonso (NYM)Cody Bellinger (LAD)Anthony Rizzo (CHC)
    2BGleyber Torres (NYY)Max Muncy (LAD)Yoan Moncada (CWS)
    3BGio Urshela (NYY)Justin Turner (LAD)Kris Bryant (CHC)
    SSAmed Rosario (NYM)Corey Seager (LAD)Javier Baez (CHC)
    LFJeff McNeil (NYM)Alex Verdugo (LAD)Kyle Schwarber (CHC)
    CFAaron Hicks (NYY)Mike Trout (LAA)Jason Heyward (CHC)
    RFMichael Conforto (NYM)Kole Calhoun (LAA)Nicholas Castellanos (CHC)
    DHAaron Judge (NYY)Shohei Ohtani (LAA)Jose Abreu (CWS)

    We’re aware that we’re cheating by putting Moncada at second base,  where he hasn’t played all season. But he played there last year, so it works in that regard.Here’s where each offense ranks in some macro-level stats this year:

    ADDENDUM: We’d also add DJ LeMahieu, David Fletcher and Tim Anderson as utility players if we had such a spot; Fletcher and LeMahieu have been excellent while playing multiple positions, and Anderson has been very good but not quite as good as Baez.

    Hard-Hit Rate

    Note that our hard-hit rate, unlike others’, uses all balls in play and strikeouts as the denominator, not just balls in play.

    1. Los Angeles (35%)
    2. New York (31%)
    3. Chicago (29%)

    Defensive Runs Saved

    This only includes DRS at the player’s position listed, not their total. Most notably, this removes all of Bellinger’s DRS as a right fielder.

    1. Los Angeles (28)
    2. Chicago (-15)
    3. New York (-24)

    The LA team didn’t have any eye-popping numbers, but they did have a positive Runs Saved from every single player, led by Verdugo’s +6 in left field. They would also get a spike if we added in the Dodgers and Angels combined work in shifts (the Dodgers lead the majors in Shift Runs Saved)

    The Chicago team was brought down by Heyward (-6) and Castellanos (-6), and Moncada (who was -5 in 2018). New York’s only positive contributor is McNeil (+1) with Rosario (-14) and Torres (-5) its biggest detractors. Neither New York team has performed well in defensive shifts this season.

    Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)

    Only offensive WAR is considered for the DHs

    1. Los Angeles (27.7)
    2. New York (19.6)
    3. Chicago (18.4)

    Unsurprisingly, having Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger on your team certainly helps your overall production. In fact, 1B and CF are the only two positions where the LA team leads in WAR. New York has a stronghold in LF (4.5 WAR to LA’s 3.2) and Chicago dominates up the middle on the infield (a combined 8.1 WAR to LA’s 5.2 and NY’s 3.6).

    So it’s a clean sweep for Los Angeles on the hitting side–let’s see if other teams can make up ground with pitching.

     New YorkLos AngelesChicago
    SP1Jacob deGrom (NYM)Clayton Kershaw (LAD)Lucas Giolito (CWS)
    SP2Noah Syndergaard (NYM)Walker Buehler (LAD)Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
    SP3Marcus Stroman (NYM)Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD)Cole Hamels (CHC)
    SP4Domingo German (NYY)Kenta Maeda (LAD)Yu Darvish (CHC)
    SP5Zack Wheeler (NYM)Rich Hill (LAD)Jon Lester (CHC)
    RP1Aroldis Chapman (NYY)Kenley Jansen (LAD)Alex Colome (CWS)
    RP2Adam Ottavino (NYY)Hansel Robles (LAA)Aaron Bummer (CWS)
    RP3Zack Britton (NYY)Ty Buttrey (LAA)Brandon Kintzler (CHC)

    Different group of players, same exercise: let’s compare some stats:

    Hard-Hit Rate Allowed

    1. New York (24%)
    2. Chicago (25%)
    3. Los Angeles (28%)

    It was really hard to cobble together a rotation for Los Angeles made up entirely of Dodgers–the Angels really have no starting pitchers of note. That lack of depth really hurt the LA team, namely with the inclusion of Buttrey, whose hard-hit rate is 34%. Surprisingly, Maeda leads the LA pitchers with a 21% hard-hit rate allowed, and Kershaw brings up the rear of the rotation with a 31% rate.

    Wins Above Replacement (Baseball-Reference)

    1. New York (18.7)
    2. Chicago (18.5)
    3. Los Angeles (14.5)

    0.2 WAR is well within the margin of error for Wins Above Replacement, so you really can’t go wrong when deciding between New York or Chicago for which pitching staff has been best this year. The lack of depth for Los Angeles hurts it once again, with the last two starting pitcher spots combining for just 2.2 WAR, compared to 2.5 for Chicago and 3.9 for New York.

    And now, the three hybrid groups ordered by who has the most total Wins Above Replacement:

    1. Los Angeles (42.2)
    2. New York (38.3)
    3. Chicago (36.9)

    This is pretty close! Keep in mind we haven’t added in bench players yet — we’ve focused on who the primary players would be — so perhaps New York or Chicago could make up a little ground there (as one reader pointed out, D.J. LeMahieu fits best as a New York utility man). I don’t think you could go wrong with picking any of the three teams. But for me personally, it’s hard to go against the team that has Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, who could very well end up as the MVPs of their respective leagues. But that’s just who I’d pick right now.

    Looking ahead, I’d be very tempted to pick the New York team, whose position players are all young, and whose pitching staff is loaded with potential. Contrasted with the Chicago team (which has a fairly aged pitching staff) and the Los Angeles team (whose pitching staff is rife with injury concerns even for its younger players), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the New York collection of players end up being the best a few years down the line.

    For more MLB content, take a look at some of our other MLB blog posts and for more information about Sports Info Solutions, visit our website.

  • Analyzing the Impact Bats Added at the Trade Deadline

    By Jon Becker

    The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, and as is usually the case, it was pitching that dominated the headlines. Trevor Bauer went to the Cincinnati Reds, Shane Greene to the Atlanta Braves, and Zack Greinke to the Houston Astros. While there weren’t names quite as big or seasons quite as good acquired on the offensive side of things, there were still a small handful of meaningful position players acquired. Let’s take a look at some of them.

    OF/DH Franmil Reyes, traded from San Diego Padres to Cleveland Indians

    Reyes has been one of the most under-the-radar hitters in baseball this year, with a 34% hard-hit rate that puts him in the top 50 among the nearly 200 batters with 300-plus at-bats. His 27 home runs this year gives him 43 for his career in under 600 at-bats, though interestingly enough he’s hit only 18 doubles and driven in 77 runs. The righty swinger actually does most of his damage against same-sided pitching, with a 36% hard-hit rate against such pitchers (25% against southpaws) and 24 of his 27 round-trippers.

    A big factor in the Padres’ willingness to trade Reyes was likely his poor defense, which our Sam Weber wrote about yesterday. He’ll probably spend most of his time in Cleveland as the designated hitter.

    RF Nicholas Castellanos, traded from Detroit Tigers to Chicago Cubs

    Despite this being the most homer-happy season in MLB history, Castellanos hasn’t quite gotten the memo, hitting just 11 home runs after clubbing 23 last year. He has hit 37 doubles, to lead MLB, only 9 off of his career-high with one-third of the season still to be played. The Cubs’ biggest offensive woes have come against lefties, and Castellanos will definitely help there. He’s hitting .347 this year when holding the platoon advantage, with four of his home runs and a 43% hard-hit rate. That hard-hit rate puts him just outside the top 10 of the 200+ hitters with at least 50 at-bats against lefties.

    One thing that ought to worry the Cubs, though, is Castellanos’ defense; he’s improved, but has still been well below average, with a -6 DRS after -19 last year. The acquisition will also give Jason Heyward more time in center and less in right; Heyward’s fifth amongst right fielders with 9 DRS, but has cost the Cubs six runs when playing up the middle.

    RF Yasiel Puig, traded from Reds to Indians

    It’s been a weird season for Puig, who slashed just .218/.268/.391 through the end of May but was excellent in the next two months, batting .290/.340/.568. His hard-contact rate has improved a lot as well; it’s been 33% over the last two months after having a hard-hit ball in less than a quarter of his at-bats prior. Similarly to new teammate Reyes, he’s a bit of a reverse-splits hitter: his batting average is 14 points higher against lefties but his hard-hit rate is almost two percentage points higher against righties, against whom he’s hit 17 of his 22 home runs.

    Puig, unlike the other two names above, is an above-average fielder, with 3 DRS in right field this year and four outfield assists, with runners taking the extra base on less than 50% of opportunities. Puig has 16 Good Fielding Plays, one shy of the MLB lead at the position. He does sometimes try to do too much — he has 13 Defensive Misplays & Errors — but that doesn’t offset his positives.

    INF/OF Eric Sogard, traded from Toronto Blue Jays to Tampa Bay Rays

    The most out-of-nowhere impact trade candidate on the market, Sogard parlayed a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays into an excellent .300/.363/.477 slashline, hitting 10 home runs in 330 plate appearances after slugging just 11 in over 1,700 career plate appearances prior. He hasn’t hit the ball particularly hard, with a hard-hit rate of just over 30%, but that still represents a career high. He’s also been excellent at using the whole field, pulling just 37% of batted balls and hitting 63% up the middle or to the left side.

    The bespectacled Sogard has started games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field this year.  He’s cost his teams four runs at second base, and has been +1 at the other positions.

  • Go Long! The Best Deep Passers In 2018

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    By Jon Becker

    There are plenty of exciting things to observe during a game of football: long runs for touchdowns, long interception returns, and long field goal kicks, just to name a few. Seeing strength and stamina get pushed to its limits is fun! And so, I thought it’d be fun to revisit my colleague Mark Simon’s post from December on which quarterbacks performed the best on long passes, with the new season soon to come.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    Who attempted the long pass the most?

    As you’d expect, the leader was walking highlight reel and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, who attempted 82 such passes. He didn’t lead by all that much, though, with Aaron Rodgers (78) of the Green Bay Packers and Ben Roethlisberger (77) of the Pittsburgh Steelers close behind. Here’s the top 10:

    Patrick Mahomes82
    Aaron Rodgers78
    Ben Roethlisberger77
    Andrew Luck67
    Baker Mayfield66
    Matt Ryan65
    Eli Manning64
    Mitchell Trubisky64
    Case Keenum64
    Russell Wilson61

    Who’s the most successful with them?

    It takes a ton of arm strength to throw the long pass consistently; it might take even more precision to be successful with it consistently. 31 quarterbacks attempted at least 30 deep passes, but only 11 of them were at at least 40%–it’s obviously quite a bit harder to complete a long pass than a short one! The ageless New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (52%) was the only field general to have more completions than incompletions on the deep ball. Here’s the top 10 of those 31 with at least 30 attempts:

    Drew Brees52.0%
    Russell Wilson47.5%
    Jared Goff47.5%
    Patrick Mahomes42.7%
    Derek Carr42.3%
    Eli Manning42.2%
    Andrew Luck41.8%
    Deshaun Watson41.8%
    Matt Ryan41.5%
    Philip Rivers40.7%

    Who was at the bottom of this list? The three with the lowest completion percentage on deep balls were Cam Newton (23.5%), Sam Darnold (23.6%) and Joe Flacco (25%).

    Who threw the most catchable deep balls?

    Our Video Scouts evaluate whether passes are thrown on-target. The leaderboard is similar to the completion percentage leaderboard with a few exceptions. Drew Brees (66%) and Jared Goff (64%) rank 1-2. Philip Rivers, who ranked No. 10 in completion percentage, moves to No. 3 in throwing catchable balls (63%). Case Keenum of the Washington Redskins, who ranked No. 18 in completion percentage, slots in at No. 4 (59%). Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan (59%) are No. 5 and 6.

    Who Went The Deepest on Average?

    In our closest competition yet, Prescott just barely edged out Roethlisberger in most yards per deep completion last season. Prescott averaged 41.67 yards per completion, whereas Roethlisberger was at 41.63 yards. Not far behind were Ryan Tannehill (39 Y/C) and Carson Wentz (38 Y/C).

    Who Got the Best Results?

    Roethlisberger narrowly missed being atop a couple of the above leaderboards, but he leads in perhaps the most important: touchdowns. Roethlisberger was alone at the top of the list with 11 touchdowns on deep passes, with Mahomes and Wilson one behind him. Roethlisberger did have three interceptions on such attempts, though; the only QB with a perfect ratio and at least 30 deep pass attempts was Rodgers, whose 8 touchdowns came without an interception.

    Who Was Best Overall?

    Roethlisberger would be a good choice, as would Mahomes or Rodgers. But our Total Points metric determines that Wilson was, in fact, the most valuable passer on deep balls. Here’s our Alex Vigderman explaining Total Points for QBs:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Here’s every quarterback with a positive Points Earned on deep passes. Notice Big Ben’s placement:

    Russell Wilson35.2
    Patrick Mahomes33.5
    Aaron Rodgers31.8
    Drew Brees24.5
    Matt Ryan22.3
    Philip Rivers20.6
    Baker Mayfield19.2
    Matthew Stafford18.9
    Andrew Luck18.2
    Jared Goff16.8
    Eli Manning16.0
    Kirk Cousins15.5
    Marcus Mariota12.8
    Deshaun Watson11.9
    Dak Prescott8.9
    Carson Wentz8.6
    Derek Carr7.9
    Case Keenum7.5
    Ben Roethlisberger6.7
    Blake Bortles6.3
    Jameis Winston2.6
    Mitchell Trubisky2.0

    For more stats like the ones in this article, sign up for a free trial of the SISDataHub by clicking here. For more information about Sports Info Solutions, click here.

  • The Longest Active Homerless Streaks

    This year, baseballs have been flying over fences at a record pace, with 4,215 home runs entering Thursday’s games, 29 more than there were for the entire 2014 season.

    There are 556 non-pitchers who have taken at least one trip to the plate in 2019; 456 of them have at least one long ball. The math there says that 100 guys haven’t gotten the memo about the ball being “juiced”, though some of them have gotten very few plate appearances. Some of them, though, have gotten hundreds. Here’s who’s gone the longest without taking a trot around the bases.

    Billy Hamilton, KC (378 PA without a HR; last HR was August 29, 2018)

    A wholly unsurprising name to lead the list, Hamilton has yet to hit a home run in Royals blue, and it might stay that way with the trade deadline just six days away and teams likely coveting his glove, arm and speed. He’s never been much of a hitter (.624 career OPS, .553 this season), but his previous career-low in home runs is three, and his OPS is 10 points lower than his previous career low.

    The closest he’s come to a homer since taking Freddy Peralta deep to lead off the Reds’ turn at bat last August was this double last month, which hit the warning track on a fly but wasn’t hit all that hard (97 mph exit velocity).

    Another fun Hamilton fact: despite his speed, he’s never hit an inside-the-park home run at the MLB level, but he does have a walk-off home run… against Josh Hader, no less!

    Matt Duffy, TB (334 PA without a HR; last HR was June 16, 2018)

    Injuries to his hamstring and back kept Duffy out of MLB action for 2019 until Tuesday, which is why he has only roughly a half-season’s worth of plate appearances in a thirteen-month span. Duffy’s still been pretty good since his last homer, though, with a .282 batting average and a 24% hard-hit rate. He came agonizingly close in his first game off the IL, stroking a double off of Chris Sale. Unfortunately for him, it was hit to the deepest part of the ballpark.

    Joey Wendle, TB (300 PA without a HR; last HR was August 19, 2018)

    Unfortunately for the Rays, they’ve got two infielders on this list, and unlike Duffy, Wendle has not gotten good results recently. In games since the one in which he hit his last homer, he’s hitting a respectable .266 with a 28% hard-hit rate, but this season those figures are down to .209 and 22%. He might’ve come even closer to a homer than Duffy, roping a belt-high changeup to the warning track in Baltimore just a couple weeks ago, at nearly 100 MPH off the bat.

    Jon Jay, CWS (261 PA without a HR; last HR was July 15, 2018)

    Jay, like Hamilton, has seen his drought span multiple teams, spending the latter half-or-so of 2018 with the Diamondbacks before signing with the White Sox in the offseason. And like Duffy, he was limited by injury. A hip injury that turned into a groin injury that led to some knee and back ailments pushed Jay’s Sox debut back to June 24, and despite his lack of power output, he’s produced a .743 OPS in 89 plate appearances, thanks to a .317 batting average. Jay’s performed eerily similarly to Wendle since his last longball, with a .270 average and a 28% hard-hit rate.

    Jay’s had a couple of close calls: he hit a 410-foot double high off the center field wall in Kansas City just last week, and a long flyout a few weeks prior, necessitating a leaping grab from Max Kepler.

    Joe Panik, SF (181 PA without a HR; last HR was May 28, 2019)

    Hey, someone who’s actually got a home run this year! Panik’s had a season to forget; his OPS was .700 following that game on May 28th, but since then it’s just .548, dropping his season OPS to a well-below-average .626. There are positives in that time, though: his K-BB ratio is an excellent 16-to-14, and his hard-hit rate is north of 30%.

    Panik’s come closer than anyone in the top five to ending his drought, crushing a middle-middle fastball for a triple, 101 MPH off the bat, on June 26th. Unfortunately, it came to the deepest part of Oracle Park, high off the archways near Triples Alley. His next homer will have to wait.

    Here’s who rounds out the top 10:

    PlayerTeamDate of Last HRPA Since Last HR
    Tim LocastroARZN/A (0 MLB HR)174
    Tony WoltersCOL5/22/2019148
    Nicky LopezKC6/13/2019141
    David FletcherLAA6/15/2019139
    Mallex SmithSEA6/16/2019138

     

  • No Worse For Wear: The Best at Taking HBPs Like a Champ

    By Jon Becker

    All stats through Sunday’s games

    Hit by pitches are obviously pretty common, with about one every one-and-a-quarter games this season (1198 of them in the first 1,490 games). Some players are more prone than others; the Reds’ Derek Dietrich has gotten hit 22 times in just 260 plate appearances!

    It doesn’t seem fun to walk to the plate and have an 8% chance of getting drilled by a projectile, but that’s a big part of his game. I don’t want to investigate who’s gotten hit the most or at the greatest rate, though; that’s easy enough for anyone to find on their own.

    What I do want to know is this: who’s most adept at getting hit by pitches without getting harmed by pitches?

    SIS has been tracking player injuries since the onset of the 2015 season. With each injury, our Video Scouts assign an Injury Severity on a scale of 1 to 5, which is then validated by our expert, a former clinical research specialist. This is completely separate from any diagnosis, and is based almost entirely on observing the player’s reaction. The most basic way to describe each level of severity is:

    1: No visible reaction, no stoppage of play
    2: Slight visible reaction, possible delay in game
    3: Definite visible reaction, longer delay of game
    4: Looks very painful, gets trainer visit, needs extensive time to recover
    5: Very bad injury, basically immobile, needs help leaving field

    So, with those descriptions in mind, I wanted to categorize hit-by-pitch types. It’s an inexact science, but I decided to group severity types 1 and 2 together, calling them “No Big Deal Hit By Pitches” (NBD HBP, for short).

    These are hit by pitches where a batter doesn’t react much if at all, and is no worse for wear as he takes his base almost immediately. When dividing their NBD HBP by all HBP, we can get a percentage of HBP where the batter was basically totally fine.

    Amazingly, of the 167 players to be hit by at least 15 pitches since 2015, 29 of them (17%) haven’t had a hit-by-pitch of severity 3 or greater, for a perfect 100% “NBD HBP rate.” Here are those players (Reminder: all stats through Sunday):

    PlayerTeam(s)HBP
    Jon JaySTL/SD/CHC/KC/ARZ/CWS36
    Adam EatonCWS/WSH34
    Joc PedersonLAD33
    Russell MartinTOR/LAD32
    Chase UtleyPHI/LAD29
    J.T. RealmutoMIA/PHI25
    Chris DavisBAL24
    Jose PerazaLAD/CIN24
    Lucas DudaNYM/TB/KC/ATL24
    Jung Ho KangPIT23
    Joey VottoCIN22
    Curtis GrandersonNYM/LAD/TOR/MIL/MIA22
    Paul GoldschmidtARZ/STL22
    Brian AndersonMIA22
    Yolmer SanchezCWS20
    Aaron AltherrPHI/SFG/NYM19
    Matt OlsonOAK18
    Logan MorrisonSEA/TB/MIN18
    Chase HeadleyNYY/SD18
    Joe PanikSF17
    Jose BautistaTOR/ATL/NYM/PHI17
    Mitch MorelandTEX/BOS17
    Addison RussellCHC16
    Ryan BraunMIL15
    Cesar HernandezPHI15
    Whit MerrifieldKC15
    Neil WalkerPIT/NYM/MIL/NYY/MIA15
    Scooter GennettMIL/CIN15
    Jake LambARZ15

    Bringing up the rear of the list is Jean Segura, who has reacted with a severity of 3 or greater on 12 of his 28 hit-by-pitches (43%). Only six of the 167 players have an NBD HBP rate below 70%. The league-average rate is 89% since we’ve begun tracking severity (103 of the players who’ve been plunked at least 15 times are above the league average).

    When looking at the above list and considering our injury severity system in general, it’s important to note that severity doesn’t necessarily line up with diagnoses or long-term effects or whether or not the player had to go on the Injured List.

    Segura isn’t necessarily the most unlucky of our sample of 167 players, but he has reacted to hit-by-pitches the worst severely, on average. Everyone reacts to injuries differently, and this isn’t a measure of toughness or mental fortitude so much as it is an exercise in determining who’s “best” at not getting too hurt by baseballs being hurled right at them.

  • Which Starting Pitchers Have Had Their Hard-Hit Rates Change the Most?

    by Jon Becker

    On Friday, I identified which hitters have changed their hard-hit rates the most from 2018 to 2019, whether it came in the form of a large increase or large decrease. Now, I’d like to do the same with starting pitchers.

    Note that this version of hard-hit rate is calculated as Hard-hit balls/(At-Bats + Sacrifice Flies). Our denominator rewards a pitcher for strikeouts. The denominator on Statcast and FanGraphs is “Batted Balls” which does not reward the pitcher for a strikeout.

    The number you get from the calculation allows you to say “Pitcher X has allowed a hard-hit ball in Y% of the at-bats against him.”

    I’ll start with the three pitchers who’ve improved their hard-hit rate the most. I set a minimum of 400 at-bats against in 2018 and 200 this season; 95 pitchers fit that criteria, though not all are starting pitchers this season.

    1. Lucas Giolito, 26.5% to 20.2% (6.3% decrease)

    It would be hard to argue that Giolito isn’t the most improved pitcher this season, and his large drop in hard-hit rate reflects that. His ERA has been nearly halved (6.13 to 3.15), with his K% almost doubling (16% to 30%). His most dramatic improvement has come with his signature pitch, the changeup: his hard-hit rate has dropped 11% on that pitch, from 27% to 16%.

    2. Cole Hamels, 30.9% to 25.8% (5.1% decrease)

    The Chicago renaissance continues for the veteran southpaw, who’s surely hoping that he won’t be on the shelf for too much longer with a mild oblique strain. In close to a full season’s worth of starts as a Cub, Hamels has been as good as ever:

    29 starts, 2.71 ERA, 176 IP, 146 H, 171 K, 58 BB, 15 HR allowed

    His hard-hit rate since being traded to the Cubs is 26.7%, putting him in 22nd place of the 64 pitchers who have at least 500 at-bats against in that time.

    3. Stephen Strasburg, 22.0% to 17.0% (5.0% decrease)

    Strasburg was 15th out of the 95 pitchers in our pool with his 22% had-hit rate in 2018, which is obviously excellent, but he’s taken it to another level in 2019. His 17% hard-hit rate is over 3% ahead of Giolito for best in MLB this year of the 95 qualifiers; the gap between him and Giolito is bigger than the gap between Giolito and Max Scherzer, who’s in 12th place.

    Strasburg’s elite hard-hit rate puts him in company with much smaller samples–his hard-hit rate is similar to relievers Aaron Bummer, Kyle Crick and Jake Diekman, who’ve faced about 40% of the batters Strasburg has.

    And now for the arms whose hard-hit rates have gone up the most:

    1. Nick Pivetta, 22.6% to 33.5% (10.9% increase)

    A common pick by analysts to break out in 2019 following a 2018 where he struck out 188 batters in 164 innings and, the Phillies righty has unfortunately gone backward this season, with an ugly 5.81 ERA in 12 starts and just 54 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings. He’s been a bit better after a short minors stint, with a 4.84 ERA in eight starts, but he’s allowed 11 homers and still has a hard-hit rate of 28.4% in that time.

    2. Mike Foltynewicz, 24.5% to 35.2% (10.7% increase)

    Folty’s currently in AAA after an abysmal 11 starts with the big league club after coming off the IL, wherein he struck out just 7.6 batters per 9 (down from 9.9 last season). He allowed 16 homers in 59 1/3 innings, just one fewer than he allowed all of last season, when he completed 183 innings and faced almost three times as many batters. His time down at Gwinnett has gone somewhat better, with a 4.08 ERA in 17 2/3 innings, along with 19 strikeouts and four walks. He’s allowed 22 hits, but no home runs.

    3. Kyle Freeland, 24.8% to 34.7% (9.9% increase)

    Every year, we see pitchers who take pretty large steps back, but none in recent memory have fallen harder and faster than Freeland, who’s elicited memories of Steve Blass and Ricky Romero. After a 2.85 ERA in 2018 led to a fourth-place Cy Young Award finish and a staggering 8.4 WAR (per Baseball-Reference), Freeland began this year with a 7.13 ERA in 12 starts, allowing 16 home runs. He was then sent down to AAA to try to work out those kinks… where he then had an ERA of 8.80 in 6 starts. Undeterred, the Rockies brought him back up for a start on Saturday; he gave up nine hits and five runs in four innings, with a hard-hit rate of 30% (6-for-20).

    Here’s the top 10 pitchers and bottom 10 pitchers in hard-hit rate change.

    PitcherHardHitRate 2018HardHitRate 2019HHR Change
    Lucas Giolito26.5%20.2%-6.3%
    Chris Stratton33.9%28.5%-5.4%
    Stephen Strasburg22.0%17.0%-5.0%
    Kenta Maeda26.3%21.4%-4.9%
    Luis Castillo28.5%23.8%-4.7%
    Shane Bieber32.7%28.4%-4.3%
    Zack Greinke30.6%26.6%-4.0%
    Mike Minor29.6%25.9%-3.7%
    Tyler Mahle31.7%28.1%-3.6%
    Dylan Bundy25.1%21.8%-3.3%

    Largest Increase

    Jake Arrieta21.6%29.9%8.3%
    Zach Eflin22.0%30.6%8.6%
    Vince Velasquez23.3%32.1%8.8%
    J.A. Happ22.2%31.0%8.8%
    Justin Verlander18.2%27.2%9.0%
    Aaron Nola17.6%26.6%9.0%
    CC Sabathia21.5%30.6%9.1%
    Kyle Freeland24.8%34.7%9.9%
    Mike Foltynewicz24.5%35.2%10.7%
    Nick Pivetta22.6%33.5%10.9%

  • Which Batters Have Changed Their Hard-Hit Rate The Most?

    By Jon Becker

    Now that we’re after the All-Star Game and have seen more than half of 2019’s regular season games come and go, we’ve got a plenty large sample to evaluate players this season. One of my favorite things to do is look at players who’ve changed drastically–positively or negatively–from season to season. Today, I’ll be taking a look at the batters who’ve changed their hard hit rates the most, for better or for worse.

    Note that this version of hard-hit rate is calculated as Hard-hit balls/(At-Bats + Sacrifice Flies). Our denominator penalizes a hitter for strikeouts. Those you would see from Statcast and on FanGraphs use a denominator of “Batted Balls” which does not incorporate strikeouts.

    The number you get from our calculation allows you to say “Player X has recorded a hard-hit ball in Y% of his times at bat.”

    Let’s start with the top three hard-hit rate improvements, from the 2018 season to the first half of this season. A minimum of 400 at-bats last season and 200 at-bats this season are required to qualify.

    1. Scott Kingery, 19.2% to 34.7% (15.5% increase)

    When you increase your triple-slash from .226/.267/.338 (.605 OPS) to .292/.344/.545 (.889 OPS), you have to have changed something. For Kingery, that’s hitting the ball way harder. He’s made an even more dramatic increase against left-handed pitching, raising his hard-hit rate against southpaws from 16.9% to 53.7%. That’s the highest hard-hit rate against lefties this year of those with at least 50 at-bats against them.

    2. Cody Bellinger, 29.3% to 42.7% (13.4% increase)

    As Mark Simon noted on Monday, the NL’s leader in OPS+ and leader in DRS amongst non-catchers and its leading MVP candidate is also its leader in hard-hit rate. He was middle of the pack in 2018 (75th out of 179 hitters with at least 400 at-bats), but has been anything but this season. His most pronounced change has been against sliders, raising his hard-hit rate against those pitches from 28.2% to 50%. He has the highest hard-hit rate this season against that pitch type (minimum 25 at-bats ending with sliders).

    3. Josh Bell, 26.9% to 38.1% (11.2% increase)

    Perhaps the biggest breakout of the season, Bell came into the season with a career OPS of .784 and a WAR  of 2.2 (per Baseball-Reference), largely due to well-below-average defense at first base. This season? A 1.024 OPS and 3.0 WAR to go along with vastly improved defense (-9 DRS last year, 0 this year). The switch-hitting Bell has gotten better from both sides of the plate, with a 11.1 percentage-point increase as a righty and 10.9 percentage-point jump from the left side.

    And now, for those who’ve seen their hard-hit rates plummet the most:

    1. Jackie Bradley Jr., 29.3% to 22.9% (6.4% decrease)

    Bradley’s put his March/April funk (.406 OPS) behind him, slashing .272/.377/.497 (.874 OPS) since May 1, but his hard-hit rate hasn’t quite rebounded yet. His hard-hit rate since the beginning of May is actually lower than his season average, at 21.4%.

    2. Rougned Odor, 33.4% to 27.4% (6% decrease)

    After a slightly below-average season in 2018 (.253/.326/.424, for a 97 OPS+), Odor’s production has cratered in 2019, as he is batting just .198/.264/.407 (an OPS+ of 69). The lefty swinger actually hasn’t been much worse against same-sided pitching (a 4 percentage-point decrease), but righties have given him trouble (a 6.9 percentage-point decrease). Fortunately for Odor, he’s still just 25 years old, so there is time to improve.

    3. Matt Carpenter, 35.4% to 29.6% (5.8% decrease)

    Of the three trailers on this list, Carpenter was by far the best in 2018, putting up a  .257/.374/.523 triple-slash, setting a career high with 36 homers, and finishing 9th in NL MVP voting. He’s currently in the midst of his first career below- average season (88 OPS+) and has struck out in almost a quarter of his plate appearances, by far the highest rate of his career. 

    Here’s the top 15 and bottom 15:

    Batter 20182019Change
    Scott Kingery19.2%34.7%15.5%
    Cody Bellinger29.3%42.1%12.8%
    Josh Bell26.7%37.9%11.2%
    Carlos Santana27.3%38.0%10.7%
    Justin Smoak23.2%33.6%10.4%
    Cesar Hernandez17.9%27.6%9.7%
    Jonathan Schoop20.5%29.9%9.4%
    Anthony Rendon32.3%41.1%8.8%
    Rhys Hoskins25.0%33.0%8.0%
    George Springer26.1%34.0%7.9%
    Yasmani Grandal29.3%37.2%7.9%
    Ozzie Albies28.2%35.5%7.3%
    Nomar Mazara28.6%35.8%7.2%
    Dansby Swanson26.6%33.7%7.1%
    Marcus Semien25.8%32.7%6.9%
    Freddie Freeman32.7%39.6%6.9%
    Nick Markakis35.6%33.2%-2.4%
    Edwin Encarnacion30.8%28.1%-2.7%
    Freddy Galvis30.2%26.4%-3.8%
    Mitch Haniger28.0%24.0%-4.0%
    Nick Ahmed30.8%26.8%-4.0%
    Stephen Piscotty33.5%29.0%-4.5%
    David Peralta37.7%33.0%-4.7%
    Yonder Alonso28.9%24.2%-4.7%
    Todd Frazier30.4%25.6%-4.8%
    Lorenzo Cain31.5%26.7%-4.8%
    Andrew McCutchen32.5%27.4%-5.1%
    Nicholas Castellanos36.3%31.2%-5.1%
    Matt Carpenter35.3%29.9%-5.4%
    Rougned Odor33.3%27.1%-6.2%
    Jackie Bradley Jr.29.1%22.6%-6.5%

  • Which teams allow hard-hit balls least often?

    By Jon Becker

    In the final installation of our hard-hit balls series at the Sports Info Solutions Blog, we’ll take a look at which teams’ pitchers have allowed the lowest hard-hit rates.

    Note that this version of hard-hit rate is calculated as Hard-hit balls/(At-Bats + Sacrifice Flies). Our denominator rewards a pitcher for strikeouts. The denominator on Statcast and FanGraphs is “Batted Balls” which does not reward the pitcher for a strikeout.

    The number you get from the calculation allows you to say “Team X’s pitchers have allowed a hard-hit ball in Y% of the at-bats against them.”

    1. Nationals (24.4%)

    It figures that the team with the third-lowest starting pitcher ERA in baseball would do well by this metric, with Washington just edging out the next-closest team in hard-hit rate by two-tenths of a percentage point. As Mark Simon noted on Wednesday, Stephen Strasburg leads the majors with a ridiculously low 18.3% hard-hit rate. Max Scherzer (23.3%) is surprisingly not at the top. He’s actually a bit behind rotation-mate Anibal Sanchez (11th overall at 22.6%).

    2. Red Sox (24.6%)

    Boston may not have Stephen Strasburg’s MLB-best hard-hit rate, but they do have Chris Sale in fourth place (21.0%) and Eduardo Rodriguez in 6th place (21.5%). The BoSox are the best in baseball at limiting hard contact from right-handed batters, holding them to a 23.8% hard-hit rate. Matt Barnes is third-best among relievers with a 15.0% hard-hit rate allowed.

    3. White Sox (25.7%)

    Now this team sure is surprising. The White Sox have the fifth-highest ERA in baseball (5.04) and yet they’re in the 90th percentile at limiting hard contact. It sure helps that they have Lucas Giolito’s 20.1% hard-hit rate, leading the American League and behind only Strasburg in all of Major League Baseball. Lefty reliever Aaron Bummer doesn’t qualify for the individual pitcher leaderboard (he doesn’t have 200 AB against), but if we reduced the minimum to 100 AB against, he’d rank 5th in baseball (16.5%).

    4. Rays (25.9%)

    Tampa Bay might be unorthodox with how it uses its pitching staff, but they are getting good results out of it. Blake Snell leads their qualified pitchers with a 21.8% hard-hit rate, but all five of their qualifiers (Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Charlie Morton, Ryan Yarbrough, Jalen Beeks) all come in under 30%. Tyler Glasnow was under 20% before landing on the IL with a forearm strain, and reliever Emilio Pagan clocks in at 20.5%.

    5. Mets (26.6%)

    It’s been a season to forget for the Mets, but at least its pitching staff is elite at preventing rockets off the bat. Noah Syndergaard (21.6%) is ahead of ace Jacob deGrom (23.7%), with Zack Wheeler not too far behind at 24.8%. Oft-maligned closer Edwin Diaz is at 29.5%, almost double his 15.2% from 2018.

    Here’s where all 30 teams rank.

    1Nationals24.4%
    2Red Sox24.6%
    3White Sox25.7%
    4Rays25.9%
    5Mets26.6%
    6Cubs27.3%
    7Reds27.4%
    8Yankees27.6%
    9Astros27.7%
    10Brewers27.9%
    11Orioles27.9%
    12Indians28.1%
    13Dodgers28.3%
    14Pirates28.4%
    15Braves28.7%
    16Twins28.8%
    17Mariners29.0%
    18Marlins29.1%
    19Cardinals29.2%
    20Blue Jays29.3%
    21Rockies29.3%
    22Athletics29.5%
    23Phillies29.6%
    24Tigers30.1%
    25Diamondbacks30.3%
    26Padres30.4%
    27Angels30.8%
    28Royals30.9%
    29Giants31.3%
    30Rangers32.1%

  • MLB Leaderboard: Which teams hit the ball hard most often?

    By Jon Becker

    On Monday, Mark Simon investigated which hitters have hit the ball hard most often, unsurprisingly discovering that really good hitters hit the ball really hard quite often. Now, let’s zoom out and see which teams are crushing the ball on a consistent basis. Here’s a look at the top five teams.

    Note that this version of hard-hit rate is calculated as Hard-hit balls/(At-Bats + Sacrifice Flies). Our denominator penalizes a hitter for strikeouts. Those you would see from Statcast and on FanGraphs use a denominator of “Batted Balls” which does not incorporate strikeouts.

    The number you get from our calculation allows you to say “Team X has recorded a hard-hit ball in Y% of their times at bat.

    1. Dodgers (33.1%)

    This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise if you read Mark’s article; the Dodgers have both of the top two hitters in individual hard-hit rate (Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner) , another in the top ten (Alex Verdugo) and one more in the top 40 (Joc Pederson). The team feasts on changeups, with their 33% hard-hit rate against those pitches tops in the majors as well.

    2. Twins (32.9%)

    The team affectionately known as the #BombaSquad broke the MLB record with 166 home runs before the All-Star Break, and are on pace to become the first team in MLB history to hit 300 homers over a full season. Their highest-ranked hitter, Max Kepler, is just 24th in hard-hit rate, but it’s their top-to-bottom depth that has kept them just behind the Dodgers: they have three players (Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco) in the top 51. They’re also best in the league at crushing fastballs and sinkers, ranking first in MLB with a 36.3% hard-hit rate on those pitches.

    3. Angels (31.6%)

    Mike Trout’s the best player of this generation. Shohei Ohtani’s the best two-way player since Babe Ruth. Tommy La Stella parlayed his newfound power stroke into his first All-Star selection. So, here’s a surprising team leader for you: Albert Pujols. The future Hall-of-Famer bested all of his qualified teammates with a 37.83% hard-hit rate, just ahead of La Stella’s 37.81%. It’s a fairly small sample, but the team as a whole leads MLB with a 34.0% hard-hit-rate on splitters (17-for-50).

    4. Cardinals (31.3%)

    They haven’t gotten what they wanted out of Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter in terms of actual production, but they’ve gotten resurgent seasons from Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna and Dexter Fowler. Ozuna leads the way with a 37.4% hard-hit rate, though Yadier Molina is (quite surprisingly considering that he only has four homers and a .654 OPS) not far behind at 35.5%.

    5. Braves (31.2%)

    Now we’re back to a team with a more typical team leader in hard-hit rate, with Freddie Freeman leading the way (and 6th overall in the majors) with a hard-hit rate just under 40%. Six of their seven qualified hitters are over 30%, with Austin Riley coming up short at 27.3%. Atlanta has no problem hitting curveballs, as they’re the only team in baseball with a hard-hit rate above 30% against them.

    Here’s the full 30-team leaderboard.

    1Dodgers33.1%
    2Twins32.9%
    3Angels31.6%
    4Cardinals31.3%
    5Braves31.2%
    6Astros30.9%
    7Athletics30.8%
    8Brewers30.4%
    9Rangers30.4%
    10Diamondbacks29.9%
    11Rays29.0%
    12Giants28.6%
    13Indians28.6%
    14Phillies28.5%
    15Reds28.4%
    16Marlins28.1%
    17Blue Jays28.0%
    18Red Sox28.0%
    19Padres27.8%
    20Pirates27.7%
    21Tigers27.6%
    22Yankees27.6%
    23Royals27.0%
    24Rockies26.8%
    25Mets26.5%
    26Nationals26.4%
    27Cubs26.4%
    28Mariners25.5%
    29Orioles23.6%
    30White Sox23.3%

  • What’s The Deal With Bryce Harper?

    By Jon Becker

    All stats current through 6/26

    13 homers: pretty good! .364 OBP: pretty good! 23 doubles: pretty good! But, when your name is Bryce Harper, and you own the biggest free agent contract in major-league history … not too long after having one of the best seasons in major-league history … not too long after being perhaps the most hyped draft prospect in major-league history, that feels like a disappointment.

    It’s only been 80 games, and Harper can certainly be allowed something of a grace period as he adjusts to a new clubhouse, city and coaching staff, but regardless, his trends are alarming. Looking at the surface-level stats, when compared to last year, his triple-slash stats are down across the board; his slash-line in 2018 was .249/.393/.496, and it’s down to .246/.364/.457 this year. You probably knew that, though, and I’m not here to tell you what you already know! Let’s get a little more advanced.

    By the “plus” stats, each of which set the league average at 100, with those above 100 being better than league average (110 would be 10% better than league average, for example), Harper’s worsened as well:

    StatSource20182019
    OPS+Baseball-Reference134112
    wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created)FanGraphs135114
    DRC+ (Deserved Runs Created)Baseball Prospectus126105

    OPS+ and wRC+ both evaluate a batter’s results, whereas DRC+ attempts to be more predictive, and the latter stat shows that Harper’s performance has genuinely declined and isn’t just the result of bad luck. So, we’ve established that, no matter where or how you look, Harper’s output has decreased. Those are the results on a holistic, every plate-appearance level, and they’re worse but not hugely so. Let’s zoom in a little.

    Hitters see four-seam fastballs more than any other pitch, and that’s no exception even for a guy as feared as Harper. He’s seen 509 four-seamers this season–over one-third of the pitches he’s faced. His change in performance on those pitches? Now that’s staggering.

    Bryce Harper vs. Fastballs

    Stat20182019
    Slugging Percentage.645.505
    Isolated Power (SLG – AVG).340.222
    Batting Average on Balls in Play.355.414
    HR/FB%32.1%18.2%
    Miss%28.0%27.5%
    K%24.3%31.1%
    Hard-Hit Rate35.7%34.0%

    The chart above shows that despite squaring the ball up nearly as well on fastballs, and actually being more lucky on balls in play, Harper’s performance against fastballs has plummeted. It probably wasn’t fair to expect one out of every three fastballs hit to the outfield to continue to sail over the fence, but a HR/FB% of 18.2% is still above league average (15% this season). So, we can’t just expect a positive regression here. The results being what they are, what’s differed in the approach to change those results as compared to last season?

    Harper’s swinging at considerably more fastballs than last season, whether they’re inside the zone or outside of it. His Z-Swing% on fastballs is up from 67.0% to 72.1%, and his O-Swing% on fastballs has increased as well, from 18.6% to 22.8%. On those inside-the-zone swings, he’s making contact at almost exactly the same rate, so he’s not missing hitters’ pitches. What he is doing is swinging through far more pitches off the plate; his O-Contact% has tumbled to 51.0% after it was 73.0% last season. Sometimes it can be beneficial to swing and miss and give yourself another shot against a better pitch, but hitters as good as Harper are typically good at knowing their outside-the-zone strengths, and Harper’s missing a lot more pitches that he’s presumably swinging at because he thinks he can do damage, despite those pitches being out of the zone.

    It’s easy to sit here and say “Bryce, you’ve just got to make contact against fastballs more often!” But, when poring over the data and determining that’s the obvious answer, there’s not really much else to say. Whether Harper–known for changing his swing often–thinks that more tinkering is in order, or if he believes that his struggles will just sort themselves out with time, one thing’s for sure: he’s got to do more damage against the easiest pitch to hit in Major League Baseball.