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Author: John Shirley

  • Stat-Based NFL Player Comparisons for the 2020 QB Class

    By: John Shirley

    Within the 2020 SIS Rookie Handbook, we provided a look at how well some player-level quarterback metrics correlate between the NCAA and the NFL. The following table and excerpt from the Handbook summarizes the results:

    Correlation of QB Rate Metrics

    MetricNFL Year-to-Year (n=71)Final NCAA Season to NFL Career (n=20)
    Scramble%0.760.50
    ADoT0.410.40
    Catchable%0.480.33
    ADoC0.330.29
    Comp%0.490.22
    Sack%0.340.04
    EPA/DB0.330.04
    TD/INT0.320.03
    Y/A0.310.00

    “The metrics that correlate the highest year-to-year are the ones that measure what quarterbacks have the most control over: accuracy (Catchable%), aggressiveness (ADoT), and the decision to scramble (Scramble%). These are also the same things that have a high correlation from college to the NFL. Performance value metrics have much lower year-to-year correlations and NCAA to NFL correlations, most likely due to the fact that these measure overall offensive performance instead of direct quarterback performance.“

    “SIS’s Total Points value metric shows relative stability at the NFL level (correlation = .45), but as we only have NCAA Total Points data for 2018 and 2019, we do not have a large enough sample to model a relationship. This is also a drawback for all of the quarterback metrics, as any relationship based on a sample size of 20 should be taken as a first glimpse and not gospel.”

    Using this information, we can see that the top five metrics (Scramble%, ADoT, Catchable%, ADoC, and Completion%) show some relationship between a player’s performance in college and his performance in the NFL. By using these metrics and historical college data from previous draft classes, we can compare this season’s quarterback prospects to the college performance of current NFL players. We’ll use a similarity score on the scale of 0 to 100, with a higher number representing a more similar player.

    Results

    SIS Rookie Handbook Position RankPlayerMost Similar PlayerSimilarity Score
    1Joe BurrowBaker Mayfield73
    2Tua TagovailoaDwayne Haskins86
    3Justin HerbertDeshaun Watson92
    4Jordan LoveSam Darnold81
    5Jacob EasonDrew Lock89
    6Jake FrommCooper Rush88
    7Tyler HuntleyJake Browning69
    8Jalen HurtsKyler Murray74
    9Anthony GordonGardner Minshew II84
    10Steven MontezDaniel Jones87

     

    SeasonPlayerScramble%ADoTCatchable%ADoCComp%
    2017Baker Mayfield5.7%10.788.3%8.170.5%
    2019Joe Burrow7.4%9.191.2%7.776.3%

    Joe Burrow’s closest statistical comparison is fellow Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Although, this is one of the weaker comparisons among the group. This is mainly due to how incredible Burrow’s season was. There are not many other quarterbacks that can compare to his high-level accuracy, while also pushing the ball down the field with an ADoT of 9.1.

    SeasonPlayerScramble%ADoTCatchable%ADoCComp%
    2018Dwayne Haskins5.0%7.985.3%6.370.0%
    2019Tua Tagovailoa4.0%8.387.8%6.171.4%

    If this result surprises you because of the difference in stature between the two quarterbacks, maybe their similar stat lines convince you otherwise. It’s worth noting that if we include height as a variable in our model, Deshaun Watson becomes Tua’s strongest comparison.

    SeasonPlayerScramble%ADoTCatchable%ADoCComp%
    2016Deshaun Watson4.0%8.585.1%5.667.0%
    2019Justin Herbert4.0%8.483.4%5.866.7%

    Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson have the highest similarity score among the group, and when you look at their near-identical key statistics, it’s easy to see why. That said, if the 4 inch difference height between the two is too much for you to see past (pun intended), our height-inclusive model pegs Daniel Jones as most similar to Herbert, albeit with a similarity score of just 77.

    How It Works

    The first part of creating the similarity scores is to normalize the five input metrics, which essentially means that we are adjusting them so that they are all on the same scale of 0 to 1.

    We can then input the normalized metrics into the distance formula, which compares all players to each other and measures how far apart each player is based on the inputs. So, players with similar metrics will have short distances, while players with wildly different performances will be far apart.

    The final part of the process is to create a similarity score out of the distances. This will be done by using the formula: 1 / (1+Distance). The final output will be a similarity score on the scale of 0 to 100, with a higher number representing a more similar player.

    This doesn’t mean each player will have a similar NFL career path as their comparison. But, it can be a fun and useful way of analyzing prospects. For more in-depth stats and full scouting reports on the entire 2020 draft class purchase the 2020 SIS Rookie Handbook.

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 12

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Marketing Associate:

    The Eagles have not beaten the Seahawks in Philadelphia since 1989. It gets worse from there. It sounds very unlikely that Eagles starting right tackle Lane Johnson will be cleared from concussion protocol in time for this Sunday’s game. Since Carson Wentz became the starting QB, the Eagles are 3-9 in games played without Johnson. First round rookie Andre Dillard (a natural left tackle) has been taking first team reps at right tackle. Look for the Seahawks to line up Jadeveon Clowney on the offense’s right side (where he has been most productive this season) against Dillard early and often.

    Jadeveon Clowney’s Pressure% by Side

    Side of OffensePass RushesPressure%
    Right20515.1%
    Left10613.2%

    Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Saints offense played as well against Tampa Bay as it has at any point this year with Drew Brees running it. But it’s time for a second wide receiver to step up. Tre’Quan Smith showed lots of promise as a rookie but has had a disappointing sophomore campaign, due largely to battling a series of injuries. Ted Ginn Jr. is back to dropping more passes than he catches. And there really isn’t a natural fourth receiver to speak of. Can TE Jared Cook potentially make a second wide receiver superfluous against Panthers LB Luke Kuechly, who excels in coverage?

    Luke Kuechly vs. Tight Ends

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtINTs + DefensedPass Defense Points Saved
    Luke Kuechly114.234.2

    New York Giants @ Chicago Bears – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Giants go on the road to face the Bears, where there is still uncertainty over who they will be facing at quarterback. Mitch Trubisky may want to tough it out though, as the Giants secondary is as good as it gets these days in terms of boosting the confidence of opposing quarterbacks. While the Bears’ running game is not very strong either, it will be interesting to see how the Giants choose their defensive personnel in what is looking to be a low-scoring affair.

    The Giants corners have been struggling in 2019

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt AllowedPass Defense Points Saved
    Janoris Jenkins517.59
    Deandre Baker469.8-15.7
    Grant Haley2110.0-3.8
    Corey Ballentine86.1-2.9

    Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After getting the offense back on track against the Dolphins last week, the Bills move on to play a much more competent defense in the Broncos this week. With Ty Nsekhe getting injured, the Bills will be forced to play Cody Ford full time at right tackle. Watch to see how Ford responds to the speed rush moves from Von Miller. This will be a real eye opener for a rookie that hasn’t seen many dominant pass rushers line up across from him to this point in his career. Expect this to be a low scoring game, but if Ford can hold his own, look for Josh Allen to continue his success after coming off AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

    Von Miller vs. Cody Ford

    PlayerPass RushesPressure% (Rank Among Edge Rushers min 200 Pass Rushes)
    Von Miller28013.9% (17th)



    PlayerPass Blocking SnapsBlown Block% (Rank Among Tackles min 200 Snaps)
    Cody Ford2114.3% (51st)

    Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots – 11/24 4:25 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Going up against the Dallas Cowboys, who will be without star linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, look for the Patriots offense to get back to what they do best with screens, checkdowns, and interior crossing routes. Look for James White to have a big game, even if he has been relatively quiet in recent weeks. The Patriots will look to get White in good matchups against Vander Esch’s replacement to get him out in space and open in short yardage situations

    James White’s Value by Route Type

    RouteTargetsYds/TgtsReceiving Points Earned
    Out67.04.1
    Wheel315.73.0
    Curl124.82.2

    Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers – 11/24 8:20 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Going into Week 11, five teams in the NFC have eight or more wins. With only six playoff spots available, the last stretch of the regular season will be affected heavily by this SNF matchup. Look for the Packers to try to mimic the Seahawks and Cardinals ability to stop the 49ers prolific run game in order to put the game into Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. Although Garoppolo has proven he is capable of winning a game on his own, the Packer’s defense should prove to be a tougher test, especially after coming off a bye week.

    Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Packers D in 4th Quarter/Overtime Performance

    PlayerAttCatchable Throw%INT% Positive%
    Jimmy Garoppolo6682%1.5%54%
    QBs vs. Packers Defense10370%3.9%45%

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 11

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – 11/17 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After losing to the Browns last Sunday, the Bills will look to get back on track this weekend against the Dolphins to keep them in a comfortable position for a Wild Card playoff berth. The Dolphins have suddenly found their way, winning their last two matchups. It has been reported that Josh Allen got the “green light” this week from Coach McDermott. After their win against the Titans in week 5, it had seemed as if Allen was becoming more risk averse. Expect Allen to have a more aggressive approach on offense this Sunday especially with the Dolphins playing without their star corner Xavier Howard.

    Josh Allen vs. the Dolphins Defense on Deep Throws (20+ Yards)

    PlayerDeep AttemptsCatchable%Yds / AttTD / INT
    Josh Allen3639%7.71 / 3
    QB’s vs. Dolphins4949%11.96 / 2

     

    New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles – 11/17 1:00 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After their first loss of the season against the dynamic Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, the Patriots go on the road again for another big game against the Eagles. Look for the Patriots defense to try and correct the struggles they had last week against the run.

    Although the Eagles don’t have as dynamic of runners as the Ravens, the Patriots defense needs to lock in to stop Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, and the very capable runner, Carson Wentz. Look for Patriots LB Dont’a Hightower to have a big game. He had his best game in terms of number of tackles (12) against the Ravens and he will look to continue that success.

    Eagles Top Rushing Threats

    PlayerCarriesYards After Contact / CarryRushing Points Earned (NFL Rank)
    Jordan Howard1192.718.6 (5)
    Miles Sanders742.64.4 (36)

    Patriots Defense vs. the Run

    TeamCarriesYards After Contact / CarryRushing Points Saved (NFL Rank)
    Patriots1892.547 (29)

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 10

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Coming off the Bye week, it appears the Saints will have all of their offensive weapons to go against one of the league’s worst defenses. Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Tre’Quan Smith all practiced on Wednesday. The most important thing in this contest, against what should be an overwhelmed Falcons defense, is the Saints getting their roster back together and gearing up for the stretch run.

    The Value of Skill Players the Saints Should be Getting Back this Week

    PlayerTotal Points (2019)
    Alvin Kamara
    		12
    Tre’Quan Smith3
    Jared Cook 0

    Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Kendal Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With Kareem Hunt set to come back this week, there is concern for a Bills defense that has shown inside run defense deficiencies since their game against the Dolphins. With Hunt joining an already dominant Nick Chubb in the Cleveland backfield, one would expect the Browns to elect to employ a run-heavy offense on Sunday. There are a lot of other interesting matchups to look forward to in this game as well. The most exciting should be the Odell Beckham vs. Tre’Davious White matchup. With White coming up clutch week after week and Odell struggling to live up to his contract, this could be a big measuring stick game for both players.

    Tre’Davious White vs. Odell Beckham

    PlayerTargetsComp%
    		Yds / TargetReceiving Points Earned
    Odell Beckham6758%8.613.2
    PlayerTargetsComp% AllowedYds / Target AllowedPass Defense Points Saved
    Tre’Davious White3749%5.218.7

    New York Giants @ New York Jets – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    It looks like this is the first time all season that the Giants will trot out a different starting offensive line than week one. Center Jon Halapio is doubtful and RT Mike Remmers is questionable, leaving Daniel Jones the most vulnerable he’s been so far this season. With Saquon Barkley only having 14 carries last week, expect there to be a heavy focus on feeding Barkley early and often to take pressure off of Daniel Jones and try and get Barkley and the rest of the offense back on track.

    Daniel Jones Clean Pocket vs. Pressured

    AttemptsComp%Yds / AttTD / INTIQR
    Clean Pocket
    		15769%%710 / 599.1
    Pressured10066%5.81 / 361.3

    Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers – 11/10 4:25 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Look for the Packers to want to come out fast in their return back to Lambeau. The Packers were flat from the get go in Week 9 and were unable to figure anything out the entire game. They allowed the Chargers poor run game to look as though it was one of the best in the NFL. Now they welcome in the Panthers and running back Christian McCaffrey, who is making his claim as an MVP candidate. Look for the Packers to start quick on offense in order to give the defense momentum and confidence to limit McCaffrey’s big play potential. The Packers defense has been one of the worst, if not the worst, in allowing big plays so this will not be an easy task for them to handle.

    Christian MCaffrey has Excelled on Inside and Off-Tackle Runs

    DirectionCarries
    		Yds / CarryYards After Contact
    		Rushing Points Earned
    Inside525.11366.3
    Off-Tackle885.91727.4

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 9

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills – 11/3 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After two weeks in a row that the defense was brought down to earth, there is potential for the same problem to affect the Bills again this week. The Bills have had trouble stopping runs between the ‘B’ gaps this season after the injury to DT Harrison Phillips. With the Redskins coming up, it is possible that the Bills will face a similar defensive task against Adrian Peterson and the Redskins’ hefty dose of Duo run designs. Especially after the departure of Jay Gruden, the Redskins have opted to put an emphasis on the running game under Interim Coach Bill Callahan.

    Adrian Peterson Has Been Elite on Duo Runs This Season

    Carries (NFL Rank)Yards / Carry (NFL Rank)
    21 (2nd)4.3 (4th)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers – 11/3 4:25 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Bears, but fired their offensive coordinator the next day. The Chargers could be expected to come out fast against the Packers, as this move generally gives teams a boost. That being said it shouldn’t take long for the Packers to regain their step with the infamous home-field disadvantage of the Chargers stadium. With crowd attendance most likely in their favor, and the expected return of WR Davante Adams, look for the Packers to progressively control the game throughout all four quarters.

    Davante Adams’ Hopeful Return Could be a Big Boost for the Packers

    PlayerTargetsReceiving Points Earned
    Davante Adams3613.3
    All Other Packers WR’s1056.8

     

    New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens – 11/3 8:20 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The one knock against the Patriots stellar defense so far this year is the level of competition they have performed against. Without any games against top-tier offenses or quarterbacks, many people want to see how they will fare in a competitive game. This Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens will be that first game, as the Patriots go on the road to face QB Lamar Jackson. Look for the Pats to try and take away the running ability of Jackson and force him to be a pocket passer. Jamie Collins will most likely be given the role of the quarterback spy in the middle of the defense. Collins’ speed and athleticism allowing him to make plays sideline to sideline could be the difference in the game by neutralize the running ability of Jackson.

    Jamie Collins’ Bounce Back 2019 Performance

    Pass Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Run Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Total Points Saved (LB Rank)
    30 (3)10 (4)40 (2)

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants – 11/4 8:15 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the addition of Leonard Williams, if it wasn’t obvious before, the defensive line is far and away the strength of the Giants defense. Combined with DT Dexter Lawrence, the Giants now have two athletic space eaters up front that should hopefully alleviate some pressure from the rest of the Giants’ leaky defense. This new duo faces a tough task right away though; the Dallas offensive line is one of the best in football and will require the new-look defensive line of the Giants to carry the defense if they want any chance of winning this game

    How Leonard Williams Compares to His New Giants DL Teammates

    PlayerPass Rush Points SavedRun Defense Points SavedTotal Points Saved
    Dalvin Tomlinson31114
    Leonard Williams7512
    B.J. Hill6612
    Dexter Lawrence4610

     

  • How The Eagles Can Improve Miles Sanders’ Running Production

    By Michael Lounsberry

    The Eagles have received a fair amount of criticism due to the use of their two 2nd round draft picks from the 2019 NFL Draft, JJ Arcega-Whiteside of Stanford, and Miles Sanders the former backup to Saquon Barkley at Penn State. Many fans are upset at the lack of use Arcega-Whiteside is seeing, and on the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been calls for more of Sanders carries to go to Jordan Howard, the former Bears running back the Eagles traded for in the offseason.

    Howard seemed like the obvious choice through the first 7 games to get more carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while Sanders averaged only 3.5. Sanders has managed to contribute in other facets of the game however, returning kicks after the injuries of Corey Clement and Darren Sproles, and is currently third on the team in receiving yards.

    After such a great campaign in his final year at Penn State, what has caused this slow start for Sanders in the running game? Is it just a rookie playing like a rookie? Or is it something more correctable that can be fixed this season? I took a look at the blocking schemes employed by the Nittany Lions in 2018 and compared that to the blocking schemes the Eagles had used through the first 7 games of the 2019 season.

    Miles Sanders came out of a primarily zone blocking scheme at Penn State, with 73% of his carries in 2018 coming on plays with zone blocking and all of his carries in 2018 coming from the shotgun. As seen below, Sanders averaged 6.1 yards per rush on zone blocking attempts out of shotgun, and 4.3 yards per rush on rushing attempts with gap blocking out of shotgun.

    Miles Sanders – 2018 Season
    Zone Gap
    Attempts 160 54
    Yards 975 231
    Yards per Rush 6.1 4.3

    *This does not include 6 runs that were Draw plays that feature a unique blocking scheme

    So how have the Eagles used him so far this season?

    Miles Sanders – 2019 Season Week 1-7
    Zone Gap
    Attempts 40 23
    Yards 138 82
    Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.6
    Shotgun Zone Shotgun Gap
    Attempts 26 18
    Yards 109 39
    Yards Per Rush 4.2 2.2

    Through his first seven games on zone blocking plays, Sanders averaged a disappointing 3.5 yards per rush. While his average of 3.6 yards per carry with gap blocking was slightly better, this is misleading due to over half his production (40 yards) coming on only three “wham” runs against the Packers in week 4. If these three carries are removed from the sample, he averaged a lowly 2.1 yards per rush with gap blocking. These carries include all runs, shotgun and non-shotgun. When accounting for just runs out of shotgun, there is a pretty substantial increase to his yards per rush with zone blocking. On 26 zone blocking attempts out of shotgun, Sanders averaged 4.2 yards per rush. On zone blocking attempts not out of shotgun he averaged a mere 2.1 yards per rush.

    Sanders had only three carries against the Bills last week before leaving with an injury, but his first rushing touchdown of the season came early in the second half on a 65-yard zone blocked play out of shotgun. This run would significantly increase his yards per rush on the season, so I felt it necessary to include his stats through Week 7 as that gives a better idea of how the Eagles have used him and how he had played up until that carry.

    Logically it makes sense that Sanders would be most effective running out of shotgun on plays with zone blocking. This is what he primarily ran out of at Penn State, this is what he should be most familiar and comfortable with doing. His success in this system is why the Eagles drafted him. However, only 27 of his 66 rushing attempts (41%) this season have been runs with zone blocking out of shotgun.

    For Sanders to keep trending upwards in the running game, the Eagles need to continue to give him the type of carries that have been proven to work best for him so far this season.

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 8

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New York Giants @ Detroit Lions – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Giants travel to Detroit this week in a game that Daniel Jones needs to turn things around. Ball security must be a point of emphasis, as Jones cannot afford to keep turning the ball over at his current rate if the Giants want to be competitive for the rest of the season. Of course he is a rookie making rookie mistakes, but he must start sensing pressure in the pocket better and placing more emphasis on ball security when his internal quarterback clock ticks down

    Daniel Jones vs. Pressure

    AttemptsComp%Yds / AttTDs / INTsPassing Points Earned (Rank)
    7153.50%6.10 / 35 (20th)

     

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills – 10/7 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After they escaped with a victory against the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Dolphins, the Bills look to play to their competition yet again with the Eagles coming up. If the Bills want to have success this week, the focus should be for the offensive line to give Josh Allen time to pick apart the Eagles secondary. If the Bills offensive line can hold up against the Eagles front, Allen should be comfortable enough to start making the intermediate to deep throws that got him drafted so high in the 2018 NFL Draft

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Operations Associate:

    The biggest mismatch in this game will be John Brown vs. anybody the Eagles put out there to cover him. Expect a monster week against an Eagles secondary that has more holes in it than an afghan blanket.

    John Brown vs. Eagles Secondary (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    John Brown2713.815
    WR’s vs. Eagles8011.835

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    In spite of the possibility that Drew Brees starts in Week 8, it’s the health of other starters–Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith on offense, and Eli Apple on defense–that is the biggest question for the Saints as they host the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The loss of Cook could be big, as the Cardinals have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the entire league.

    Saints TE Depth vs. Cardinals Defense

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    Josh Hill167.64
    TE’s vs. Cardinals6310.125

     

    Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots – 10/27 4:25 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Once again the Patriots are coming off a dominating defensive performance, in which they forced five turnovers by Sam Darnold. Going into this week’s matchup against the Browns, look for safety Devin McCourty to continue his success. McCourty leads the NFL in interceptions (5) and has also been utilized in a variety of roles. Aside from his normal deep safety position, McCourty saw many snaps against the Jets where he lined up in the box, as well as a handful in the slot. The versatile McCourty, along with the rest of the stellar Patriots defense, will look to help keep the Patriots undefeated on Sunday.

    Devin McCourty’s Performance (2019)

    TargetsYds / TgtINT’sPass Defense Points Saved (Rank)
    122.5525 (1st)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs – 10/27 8:20 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    As the Packers head on the road for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs, look for much needed secondary help to be found in rookie safety, Darnell Savage Jr. Savage, who has missed the past couple games with an ankle injury, is back to full participation in practice. The Packers defense has allowed too many big plays in the passing game recently against the Lions and Raiders. Now that they are facing perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL, Savage should make a huge difference with his cross-field speed.

    Packers’ Safeties in Coverage (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtINTs + Pass DefensedPass Defense Points Saved
    Darnell Savage Jr.5037
    All Other Safeties1210.631

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 7

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Cyril Zackary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Raiders sit squarely in the AFC playoff picture at 3-2, but have a daunting test coming off a bye as they travel to Lambeau Field. Derek Carr ranks fifth among all quarterbacks with a Catchable Throw% of 81%, but his average throw depth sits at a lowly 5.6 yards. Jon Gruden is scheming to get the ball out of his hands quickly to put them in manageable down and distance situations. Stringing together long, methodical drives will be the recipe to knock off Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the road.

    Derek Carr vs Aaron Rodgers

    PlayerAvg Throw DepthCatchable Throw%

    Passing

    Total Points Earned

    Derek Carr5.681%31
    Aaron Rodgers7.475%45

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the probable returns of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram this week against Arizona, expect Daniel Jones to get back on track. Although Jones has faced stronger defenses the past three weeks, he’s also been without arguably the best weapon in the league in Barkley. The return of Barkley should elevate Jones’ game and make throws that haven’t been so easy the past three weeks much more manageable. The porous Arizona defense should help Jones return to his week 3 form as well.

    Daniel Jones Passing Performance by Week

    WeekCatchable Throw%Yds/AttIQRPassing Total Points Earned
    381%9.3112.87.2
    484%7.3680.7
    584%4.898.45.7
    671%5.243-8.1

     

    Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Coming up against the Dolphins this week, look for the Bills to finally find their groove on the offensive side of the ball. Meshing the Bills top 5 defense with a consistent offense should be the goal. And this could be the week the Bills finally find their offensive identity with the return of RB Devin Singletary and the recent emergence of WR Duke Williams who caught all of his targets in his first NFL game.

    How the Bills Top QB/RB/WR Trio Has Performed in 2019

    PlayerTotal Points EarnedPosition Rank
    QB Josh Allen034th
    RB Frank Gore1825th
    WR John Brown1116th

     

    New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears – 10/20 4:25 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Saints have held the football 33 minutes or more in each of the past three weeks, which has coincided with (relatively) dominant defensive efforts. As strong as the Bears’ defense has been, they are allowing a completion percentage of 70%, which is ranks 28th in the league. Look for Sean Payton to continue to emphasize a run-heavy and easy-completions-offense once again to maintain ball control in what figures to be another low-scoring matchup.

    Saints Top Targets (w/ Alvin Kamara out) on Short Passes (7 or Fewer Yards Downfield) Since Week 2

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiver RatingReceiving Total Points Earned
    Michael Thomas376.7121.48.6
    Jared Cook134.2110.6-0.7

     

    New England Patriots @ New York Jets – 10/21 8:15 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout on the Patriots:

    The storyline going into the Patriots Monday Night game against the Jets is who Tom Brady will throw the ball to. New England’s top three receivers, including Julian Edelman, are all less than 100%. Number four receiver Jakobi Meyers and punt returner Gunner Olszewski were forced into big roles at receiver for the majority of last week’s game. Look for the reliable James White to have a big game along with Edelman. The Patriots offense has been bailed out of games because of how well the defense has been playing. Brady will look to right the ship on offense by throwing the ball to his most reliable and trusted targets.

    Brady’s Most Reliable Weapons

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiving Total Points Earned
    Julian Edelman558.211.4
    James White395.77.4

    Zac Stempler, SIS Football Video Scout on the Jets:

    Sam Darnold is back and the Jets have erased that zero in the win column. The main thing to watch is if this offense can continue its momentum against, quite possibly, the stingiest defense in the league. Many thought Adam Gase’s offense would be built around quick passes.  However, with the return of Darnold, the offense was able to stretch the field with WR’s Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Look for this to continue in a tough battle against the undefeated Patriots. A valiant effort against their rival would go a long way for the confidence of the team moving forward.

    Sam Darnold vs. All Other Jets QB’s on Throws 15+ Yards Downfield

    PlayerAttCatchable Throw%Yds/AttPassing Total Points Earned
    Sam Darnold1457%17.13.7
    Other Jets QB’s1136%7.5-7.7

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 6

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings – 10/13 1:00 PM ET

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Operations Associate:

    Historically, Kirk Cousins has played his best against the Philadelphia Eagles. In eight career games against them, he has thrown 17 TDs to 5 INTs. The Eagles are still very short handed in the secondary in a matchup that is very favorable for the Vikings on paper. Last year when these 2 teams played, Diggs and Thielen combined for 17 catches, 206 yards, and a TD (Thielen 116 Yards and 1 TD). Given the recent well-known struggles of the Vikings passing attack in 2019, this is likely their best opportunity to get the passing offense back on track and right the ship (pun intended).

    Vikings Top WR’s Performance 2019

     TargetsTotal Points EarnedWR Rank
    Adam Thielen301312
    Stefon Diggs23-1108

     

    Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 10/13 9:30 AM ET

    Britton Mann , SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Panthers are traveling overseas to London this week for a divisional matchup against the Buccaneers. Christian McCaffrey has helped lead the team to victories the last few games by being the workhorse. The formula does not change this week. McCaffrey’s versatility in the offense is what makes this group dangerous. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage and will need to continue his barrage of receptions and tough carries to extend the Panthers winning streak.

    Christian McCaffrey’s Performance 2019 by Week

    WeekCarriesRushing Points EarnedTargetsReceiving Points Earned
    1193.5112.4
    216-5.061.2
    3242.241.0
    4275.1103.7
    5190.895.8
    Total (RB Rank)105 (1)6.6 (18)40 (2)14.1 (1)

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 5

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After giving up their first touchdown from scrimmage last week against the Bills, the Patriots defense will face the Redskins, who just named . LB Jamie Collins, who became an afterthought on the Cleveland Browns defense, has returned to the Patriots and become arguably the most versatile player on the roster. Collins played 100% of the defensive snaps last week, as well as over 70% of the special teams snaps. Collins already has a career high 3 interceptions, is nearing a career high with 3.5 sacks, and has scored a defensive touchdown.

    Jamie Collins’ Performance 2018 vs. 2019


    Season    		Pass Defense
    Total Points Saved    		Run Defense
    Total Points Saved    		Total Points SavedRank Among LB’s
    2018491298th
    2019187253rd

     

    Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    While it was just against the lowly Redskins, the Giants defense has some momentum to carry over into week five against the Vikings. With Kirk Cousins’ struggles along with the coming out party of Dalvin Cook this season, expect the Giants to stack the box this week and play a lot of man coverage on the outside, leaving their DBs on islands, and forcing Cousins to beat them instead.

    Dalvin Cook vs. Giants Defense on Runs Into a Stacked Box

    PlayerAttemptsYds/AttYds After Contact / Att
    Dalvin Cook346.44.1
    Vs. Giants Defense342.31.4

     

    Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Watch for Bills TE Dawson Knox this week with Patrick DiMarco possibly sidelined with a concussion. If DiMarco does not play, the Bills will be forced to decide if Knox has shown enough as a run blocker to be put in the backfield as a lead blocker in addition to his tight end duties. The Titans have a particularly strong secondary, so the Bills will want to keep the ball on the ground, especially if Josh Allen is not playing. If not, the Bills may have to avoid offensive play calls that require a lead blocker from the backfield. This could alter the game because of the Bills offensive consistency on the ground and inconsistencies in the passing game.

    Bills 2019 Rushing Success with and without a Lead Blocker

    Lead BlockerAttemptsEPA / Att
    No77-0.02
    Yes200.07

     

    Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers – 10/6 4:05 ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Broncos have been struggling to get their pass rush going so far this season. Now with Bradley Chubb out for the season, look for Philip Rivers and the Chargers to drop back early and often, even though they have struggled some in pass protection. If the Chargers can keep Von Miller from wreaking havoc on his own, Keenan Allen should continue his electric start to the 2019 campaign.

     Keenan Allen’s 2019 Performance So Far

    PlayerTargetsYardsReceiving
    Total Points Earned    		Rank Among WR’s
    Keenan Allen4845220.62nd

     

    Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers – 10/7 8:15 ET

    Cyril Zachary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The 49ers rank ninth overall on offense by Positive% (the percentage of plays that result in a positive EPA). Yet, they’ve ran the second-fewest plays in the NFL, ahead of only the Jets. Keeping up that efficiency will be difficult on Monday night, as they square up with their toughest opponent thus far. But with two full weeks of preparation, Kyle Shanahan should have the offense humming. The 49ers have been successful by dominating with a wide-zone attack and hitting on wide-open play-action concepts. If he can dial up a few big plays against Cleveland, San Francisco could start 4-0 for the first time since 1990.

    Play-Action Success, 49ers Offense vs. Browns Defense

    TeamDropbacksYds / AttNFL Rank
    49ers Offense3310.97th
    Vs. Browns Defense4711.528th