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  • Stat of the Week: Andrelton Simmons wins Tournament of Defensive Excellence

    By Mark Simon

    After a week of intense competition in Twitter polls,
    Andrelton Simmons won the SIS
    Tournament of Defensive Excellence, as the best defensive player of the 21st
    century.
    He survived our 32 player field, beating Mark Buehrle, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Andruw Jones, and
    then Matt Chapman in head-to-head voting matchups.

    Simmons was set to pass Adrian Beltre as the all-time
    leader in Defensive Runs Saved this season. He’s at 193, nine off the lead, in
    nearly 10,000 fewer innings than Beltre played. Defensive Runs Saved dates back
    to 2003, but even if we go back to 2000, Simmons is the leader in
    Baseball-Reference.com’s Defensive Wins Above Replacement, ahead of Beltre and Yadier
    Molina.

    We should have known in 2012 that we would be talking
    about Simmons as one of the game’s great defenders. That season he saved 19 runs
    defensively … in only 49 games. That was the second-highest total for a shortstop in MLB. He
    led all shortstops in Runs Saved in four of the next six seasons and finished second in the other two. Last season, Simmons played only 102 games at
    shortstop due to an ankle injury, but still finished a highly-respectable
    fifth. His six-year run of Fielding Bible Award wins was snapped.

    Simmons has the single-season record for Runs Saved at any position with
    40 in 2017. If you want to learn more about how that happened,
    click here. It
    was basically the result of being equally amazing on balls hit in the
    shortstop-third base hole and against balls hit up the middle. That’s
    really hard to do.

    The signature for Simmons has been fielding balls hit to his right.
    Over the last seven seasons, he’s 98 plays above average against them.
    His rate of getting outs on balls hit to his right was 65% compared to the MLB
    average of 57%. More specifically, year-in and year-out, what Simmons brings is
    consistency. He’s been at least 10 plays above average on balls hit to his right
    in six of the last seven seasons.

    Simmons’ rate of double play conversions is also
    consistent. Since 2012, he’s saved 20 runs when considering his double play
    rate and volume. The closest shortstop to that is Alexei Ramirez at 11 Runs
    Saved.

    Lastly, since 2012 Simmons has saved 16 runs from Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays. These are based on the observations of our Video Scouts who have about 30 types of Good Plays and about 60 types of Misplays to choose from when there is a specific type of consequence on a play—recording an unexpected out or denying a baserunner advancement on Good Fielding Plays, and the loss of an out or allowing baserunner advancement on Defensive Misplays.

    There are three types of Good Fielding Plays in which Simmons’ performance has far exceeded expectations. Simmons has 29 assists to throw out
    baserunners in non-relay situations against an expected total of 15. He has 34
    “Quick double play pivots” against an expected total of 14, and 20 instances of
    “Started a double play quickly” against an expected total of 15. Those three types of Good Fielding Plays account
    for a good chunk of those 16 Runs Saved.

    Simmons has been the best player at arguably the hardest
    position to play in baseball pretty much since the first time he played in a
    game for the Braves. Maybe 25 years from now, someone will have come along to
    pass Simmons, but for now, he’s the voters’ choice for best defensive player of the 21st century.

  • Defense in-depth: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto

    By NICK RABASCO

    As we wait for the MLB season to start, I thought it might be interesting to do defensive scouting reports on some notable players.

    You’ve likely read scouting reports that cover the strengths and weaknesses of a player as a hitter or baserunner, but you probably don’t know much about their defense, other than maybe that they’re a good defender or a bad defender. I’m here to help.

    I’m a former collegiate baseball player at East Stroudsburg University working at SIS as a Senior Video Scout. I watched a lot of baseball in 2019 and am familiar with the MLB player universe at an advanced level.

    So let’s start by looking at a couple of young stars– Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto. What do they do well? What do they need work on?

    These reports are based on considerable video study from the 2019 season.

    Ronald Acuña Jr.

    Acuña is an exciting young player that has room for improvement defensively.

    He tends to struggle to get great reads and jumps on balls hit in front of him. He ends up being forced to adjust his routes on these plays. He also plays too aggressively at times, as he dives and slides for some balls that he has no chance to catch.

    Luckily, Acuña possesses great speed that helps make up for some of his shaky routes and bad reads. Another weakness is that a few too many balls clank off his glove on plays that are 50/50. It seems like his head may be moving too much when he is sprinting towards a ball, causing the ball to look like it’s moving.

    One of his strengths is getting to balls that are behind him. He tends to get better jumps on these balls and has a good sense of where the warning track and wall are, especially for his age. He also has a tremendous arm that can play at any outfield spot.

    In summary: Acuña is an exciting outfielder that should be able to stay in center field until his speed starts to abandon him a little bit.

    The analytics: Acuña finished tied for 16th among outfielders with 11 Defensive Runs Saved. He saved 3 runs in left field, 3 runs in center field, and 5 runs in right field.

    Juan Soto

    Soto is a solid left fielder that lacks elite speed but makes up for it with a good feel for the position. He still makes some mistakes that you would expect a young player to make, like being too aggressive with dives on balls hit in front of him. He also tries to deceive runners by flashing his glove a bit too much on balls that could be trying to catch.

    Soto has an advanced feel for the warning track and wall, as he made a bunch of leaping catches at the wall last year, both on balls hit behind and on balls hit to his right in foul territory. He struggles more on hard-hit balls behind him, as his first step is often in on these, which is to be expected for a younger player.

    His routes are much better and smoother when going laterally, rather than back or in. His arm is not very strong, and it’s easy to see why he has stayed in left field.

    In summary: Soto should be able to be a steady left fielder for a while who won’t save a ton of runs but also won’t cost many either.

    The analytics: Soto finished with 0 Defensive Runs Saved last season. He saved 6 runs with Range & Positioning, which tied for fourth among left fielders, but his arm cost him five runs (the other run lost came from Good Fielding PLays & Defensive Misplays).

  • You won’t see a better pitch: The most dominant curveballs

    By Mark Simon

    We paid tribute to the changeup last week – looking at some of the best a pitcher had and what that pitch was like on that pitcher’s best day. Today, we move on to the curveball, a pitch that can make hitters look silly, both by inducing wild swings and freezing hitters unable to adjust to the change in speed and movement that they see.

    We went through season statlines for the time we’ve been tracking this thoroughly (since 2004) and picked seven pitchers whose curveballs performed amazingly well, then found what that pitch was like at its very best. We’ve detailed that below

    Ben Sheets

    One game to remember: May 16, 2004 (Brewers vs Braves)

    Sheets’ Line: 9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 18 K, 1 BB

    The curveball: 39 strikes on 44 pitches(!), 14 misses on 30 swings; Braves 0-for-18, 14 K against it

     This is the very best curveball game in our system and is arguably the best pitch thrown in any game of any type. Sheets was dealing that day, setting a Brewers single-game record with 18 strikeouts. There was nothing wasted for Sheets, who totaled only 116 pitches. Home plate umpire Doug Eddings, long known as a pitcher-friendly umpire, showed a wide plate early on and Sheets took full advantage. Braves hitters were left to flail away and had little chance against the sharp-breaking hook.

    “His strike efficiency ratio was huge,” said Brewers manager Ned Yost with a smile. “That’s a big word. I don’t know what it means, but he was throwing a lot of strikes.”

     A.J. Burnett

     One game to remember:  April 22, 2005 (Marlins vs Reds)

    Burnett’s line: 6 IP, 2 R, 4 H, 13 K, 5 BB

    The curveball: 28 strikes on 45 pitches, 14 misses on 15 swings(!); Reds 0-for-12, 12 K against it

    Okay, so this is far from Burnett’s best start overall given that he allowed two runs and walked five, but we’re talking about best performances by one pitch, and this one is ridiculous.

    Reds hitters swung at 15 Burnett curves and missed on 14 of them! That pitch must have had some kind of movement that day.

    “Thank god I had a curveball,” Burnett told reporters afterwards. “Some of the at-bats, they were sitting on it and it was still pretty good.”

     Erik Bedard

    One game to remember: July 20, 2007 (Orioles vs Athletics)

    Bedard’s line: 7 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 11 K, 3 BB

    The curveball: 30 strikes on 38 pitches, 10 misses on 21 swings; Athletics 0-for-13, 8 K against it

    Erik Bedard’s curveball is one that might be forgotten, perhaps because he preferred to stay out of the limelight and didn’t talk to the press much during his 11-year career, and because his career swung abruptly to decline phase. But in 2007 Bedard was one of the top young pitchers in baseball and his curveball dominated. In this game, he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning.

    “The guy is dominating and he’s making it look easy and he’s throwing all his pitches for strikes,” said Orioles manager Dave Trembley.

    Games like this were what made Bedard look like a future star. The Orioles wound up trading him at just the right time, netting prospects Adam Jones and Chris Tillman in a deal with the Mariners. Bedard’s curveball would pay off for them in more ways than one.

    Adam Wainwright

    One game to remember: July 1, 2009 (Cardinals vs Giants)

    Wainwright’s line:  9 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 12 K, 3 BB

    The curveball: 27 strikes on 36 pitches, 11 misses on 23 swings; Giants 0-for-16, 10 K against it

    Yeah, we know we could pick Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS when Adam Wainwright sent the Cardinals to the World Series by striking out Carlos Beltran on the best curveball of his life. But we’re looking for games with sustained dominance and that one doesn’t meet that criteria.

    This one is pretty good, a game in which Wainwright went nine, but got a no-decision because the game went extra innings. His 12 strikeouts, 10 of which came with the curveball, were a career high.

    One point made by Post-Dispatch writer Derrick Goold that is an underrated factor in looking at curveball success was that Wainwright was helped by the “nimbleness” of Yadier Molina, who could adeptly block any hook that Wainwright spiked. Catchers deserve credit for good curveballs too.

    Charlie Morton

    One game to remember:  June 25, 2014 (Pirates vs Rays)

    Morton’s line: 7 IP, 3 R, 4 H, 11 K, 1 BB

    The curveball:  22 of 34 for strikes, 12 misses on 18 swings; Rays 0-for-11, 8 K against it

     You could pick any number of starts from Morton’s 2019 season, as he held opponents to a .151 batting average with the curveball and recorded 275outs with the pitch, the most with a curveball by any pitcher in MLB.

    What’s funny though is that Morton’s single best start with the curveball (in terms of outs recorded without allowing a baserunner) came against his former team when he was with the Pirates. It was then that Morton showed the kind of glimmer that shone brightly the last couple of seasons. Yes, he lost, 5-1 to David Price, but after a shaky beginning in which he allowed three runs in the first inning, Morton was basically untouchable for the last six.

    Morton has since made major refinements to his game, reducing the use of his sinker for a four-seamer that he could throw consistently at 94 to 95 mph. At this point in his career, he’s got the pitch mix that works best for him, which allows the curveball he threw in this start to thrive now.

    Corey Kluber

    One game to remember: August 8, 2017 (Indians vs Rockies)

    Kluber’s line:  9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 11 K, 0 BB

    The curveball: 26 strikes on 33 pitches, 13 misses on 22 swings; Rockies 0-for-13, 7 K against it

    This start was peak Corey Kluber, though it was a bit overshadowed by the Indians scoring four runs with two outs in the ninth inning to win the game. Had that not happened, Kluber would have suffered a 1-0 loss despite one of the best starts of his career. This was the 13th start in a 14-start run in which he struck out at least eight hitters in each game. He’s the only pitcher known to do that who isn’t named Pedro Martinez (had a 16 and a 15-start streak) and Randy Johnson (a 17, a 15, and a 14).

    Kluber had a lot of starts like this in 2017. Opponents went 26-for-256 with 143 strikeouts in at-bats against his curveball that season. By Fangraphs’ pitch value stat, which measures how effectively a pitch saves runs, his curveball that season saved more runs than any other curveball in the last 16 seasons.

    Lance McCullers

    One game to remember: 2017 ALCS Game 7 (Astros vs Yankees)

    McCullers’ line: 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 6 K, 1 BB

    The curveball: 31 strikes on 41 curveballs, 10 misses on 26 swings, Yankees 1-for-12, 6 K against it

    So as we’ve been doing this, we’ve looked for starts and we’ve looked for ones in which the pitcher didn’t allow a baserunner. But we’ve made all the exceptions here for the four scoreless innings of relief by McCullers in the winner-take-all Game 7 of the ALCS. McCullers threw 41 curveballs among his 54 pitches, including the last 24 pitches he threw in the game. The Yankees managed a harmless single, but nothing more.  Of the 12 outs he got to earn the save, 11 came with the curveball, a pitch that got an endorsement from the highest of sources.

    “It’s special to watch,” said Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan afterwards.

    The same could be said of all of these listed.

  • Could a shortened MLB season give us surprising contenders?

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    A lot about the 2020 MLB season is uncertain.

    When will it start?

    How many games will be played?

    Will they play at all?

    If they do play, is there a chance the structure of games is modified to fit in a more representative number of games?

    Let’s assume there is a season, but it’s something notably short of a full one. The fun part about a shortened season (acknowledging that we’re talking about less fun overall) is that there’s a much greater chance of a team sneaking into the playoff picture that you wouldn’t have expected. We see more upsets in five-game series than we do in seven-game series, so what about an 81-game season versus a full one?

    Let’s see just how much a short season could throw things off, and how the shorter the season gets, the more chaos we might see.

    For this exploration I created simulated seasons by drawing random games from the actual 2019 game-by-game results. The simulated seasons have durations ranging from 162 all the way down to 27. Because I didn’t have the time or inclination to do these simulations with fully-balanced schedules, some teams ended up with more or fewer games than the target number. To balance that out a bit, I simulated 200 seasons of each length and only used the 100 most balanced.

    Once I had 100 simulated seasons of a given number of games per team, I took a rough estimate of the playoff-worthy teams by taking the top 10 teams by win percentage in each pseudo-season. Because these are all simulations anyway, I made the perfect-sphere-rolling-down-a-frictionless-inclined-plane of baseball seasons by removing divisions and just labeling the top 10 teams by win percentage as playoff caliber. Last season, for example, that would have put the Indians in the playoffs and left the Brewers out.

    Here’s one way to think about how shortening the season might affect competitive balance. For each season duration, how many teams would make the “playoffs” at least once in a hundred simulations? At least ten times? Twenty?

    Teams That Made the Playoffs at Least N Times in 100 Simulations

    By Number of Games in Season

    Season Length

    Made Playoffs
    Once

    		Made Playoffs
    10 Times    		Made Playoffs
    20 Times
    27 Games28 Teams21 Teams15 Teams
    54 Games23 Teams16 Teams15 Teams
    81 Games19 Teams15 Teams12 Teams
    108 Games16 Teams13 Teams12 Teams
    135 Games15 Teams11 Teams11 Teams
    * “Playoffs” meaning that the team ranked among the top 10 teams by Win%

     

    So what do we get from this table?

    • Shorter seasons give bottom-feeders a fighting chance. While half the league made the “playoffs” at least once in a hundred 135-game seasons, every team but two made it at least once in a 27-game season (sorry Tigers and Marlins fans).
    • If you want something more than a fighting chance, you really do have to be a better-than-average team even in a ridiculously short season. Even in a preposterously short season, only half the league had even a one-in-five shot at making the “playoffs.”
    • If we are looking at a nice clean half season, the middle class of teams should expect to have a shot, but we should really just focus our attention on the teams that would normally be in Wild Card contention anyway.

  • You won’t see a better pitch: The most dominant changeups

    By Mark Simon

    In addition to tracking defense in great detail, Sports Info Solutions tracks many things related to pitching and hitting. Our pitching database is complete back to 2004 and allows us to look at the effectiveness of pitches both on a seasonal and by-game basis.

    With that in mind, we thought we’d take a statistical look at the pitchers with the best pitches by pitch type. We’re using a combination of things as our guide, most notably the FanGraphs Pitch Values leaderboards (whose aim is to show which pitches saved the most runs).

    ESPN’s Baseball Tonight used to have a segment called Baseball Tonight called “That’s Nasty!” These are the pitches that were the most worthy of showing.

    We’re starting with the changeup to … change things up a bit (plenty of time to look at best fastballs and such). We’ll give you a tidbit to explain why the pitcher is on the list and then share the pitcher’s best (or most memorable game) with the pitch in terms of outs recorded without allowing a hit, walk, or hit by pitch.

    Cole Hamels

    The stat: Hamels is the standard-setter here. He has the highest Pitch Value with his changeup of any pitcher over the 16-season span from 2004 to 2019.

    One game to remember:  July 30, 2007 (Phillies vs Cubs)

    Hamels line: 8 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 8 K, 2 BB

    The changeup:  37 of 47 for strikes, 12 misses on 29 swings; Cubs 0-for-15, 6 K against it

    Hamels set a precedent for excellence early in his career, as this start came from his second season. The stories from that day were of how Hamels’ second start at Wrigley Field went better than his last appearance there, prior to which he sliced his left index finger with a knife (and then allowed nine runs in two innings). All Hamels’ fingers were working well in this game, as his changeup baffled the Cubs in a 4-1 win.

    There were even better days ahead for Hamels at Wrigley Field. He’d go on to pitch a no-hitter there in 2015.

    Johan Santana

    The stat: Santana has four of the top eight seasons in changeup Pitch Value in the five-year period from 2004 to 2008.

    One game to remember: September 27, 2008 (Mets vs Marlins)

    Santana’s line: 9 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 9 K, 3 BB

    The changeup:  28 of 42 for strikes, 12 misses on 22 swings, 8 K – Marlins 0-for-13 against it

    Throughout his career, Johan Santana was considered to have one of the best changeups in MLB, one that led him to two Cy Young Awards with the Twins and a no-hitter with the Mets.

    This may have been his best day with that pitch. With the Mets in the midst of a second consecutive late-season collapse, Santana shut out the Marlins on the next-to-last day of the season. Yes, the Mets lost the next day and missed the playoffs, but this game is well-remembered for Santana’s amazing effort.

    What made it particularly impressive? It was later revealed that he made this start with a torn meniscus in his knee.

    Tim Lincecum

    The stat: Lincecum held hitters to a .119 batting average against his changeup in 2009. That’s the lowest batting average against the pitch by any of the more than 200 pitchers who recorded at least 150 outs with it in a season (think of those as your changeup “superusers”)

    One game to remember: April 28, 2010 (Giants vs Phillies)

    Lincecum’s line: 8 1/3 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 11 K, 1 BB

    The changeup:  31 of 40 for strikes, 14 misses on 30 swings, 9 K – Phillies 0-for-15 against it

     For a few years, Tim Lincecum’s starts were appointment viewing and his changeup (called a splitter by some and often confused with his slider) was a big reason why. Lincecum could make dominant lineups look meek, like he did against the Phillies for almost all of this game.

    In 2009, the pitch saved Lincecum 33.7 runs, per FanGraphs’ Pitch Value stats. That’s the most for any pitcher’s changeup in this 16-season span.

    Lincecum once told the San Francisco Chronicle of his changeup “If guys are going to continue to take swings like that and continue to be fooled, I guess I’ll keep throwing it.”

    The Phillies would score three runs in the ninth inning to tie and then win in extra innings, but Lincecum and the Giants got them back by beating them in the NLCS on the way to a World Series title.

    James Shields

    The stat: Shields’ changeup had the second-highest Pitch Value with his changeup from 2007 to 2013

    One game to remember: June 24, 2011 (Rays vs Astros)

    Shields’ line: 9 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 9 K, 1 BB

    The changeup:  28 of 33 for strikes, Astros 0-for-17, 5 K against it

    In his prime, James Shields was a workhorse capable of throwing 250 innings a season and going deep into games because of a great pitch mix. The changeup was his money pitch and in this game it overwhelmed an Astros team that finished 56-106.

    This wasn’t so much a swing-and-miss pitch for Shields as it was one that induced ill-timed swings. The pitch netted him 18 of the 27 outs, though only five that were by strikeout.

    “There’s no superlative that I can give you that is adequate,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told reporters.

    Said then-Rays third baseman Evan Longoria: “It shouldn’t be that easy.”

     Félix Hernández

    The stat: From 2009 to 2014, Félix Hernández had the second-highest Pitch Value for a changeup in MLB. In that span, he won a Cy Young Award, twice led the AL in ERA and led the league in Hits per Nine Innings three times.

    One game to remember: June 8, 2014 (Mariners vs Rays)

    Hernandez’s line: 7 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 15 K, 1 BB

    The changeup: 22 of 36 for strikes, 13 misses on 20 swings, Rays 0-for-12, 10 K against it

    Yes, the opponent was the Rays, but this wasn’t Felix Hernandez’s perfect game. It was perfect for his changeup, which helped him to 15 strikeouts. It’s amazing what a difference three miles-per-hour can make. Hernandez allowed four hits (and a walk) and netted only six outs with a fastball that averaged 91 MPH. The changeup averaged 88 and was untouchable.

    “The man was outstanding,” said Rays manager Joe Maddon. “That changeup was a fastball until the last moment, then it became a changeup. I think he was better than when he threw the perfect game”

    Danny Salazar

    The stat: Salazar had the highest Pitch Value for a changeup of any pitcher from 2015 to 2017. Opponents hit .142, .143, and .157 against it in those three seasons.

    One game to remember: May 10, 2015 (Indians vs Twins)

    Salazar’s line: 7 IP, 1 R, 1 H, 11 K, 0 BB

    The changeup: 31 of 40 for strikes – Twins 0-for-17, 9 K against it

    There was a time not long ago when Danny Salazar was considered one of the top young pitchers in baseball and his changeup was considered one of the best pitches in the game.

    “My changeup is weird,” Salazar told me in 2016. “It feels like a string and then it drops or goes inside or outside. By throwing every pitch as if it’s the last pitch I throw, it’s helping me. I’m aggressive. It’s hard to hit. When I would just try to throw it for a strike at a low velocity, they’d do damage to it. My arm angle is the same for every pitch. It makes it tougher for the hitter to guess what I’m throwing.”

    This was one of his best days, a dominant game against the Twins in which their hitters flailed repeatedly against the pitch. After a leadoff home run by Brian Dozier, Salazar retired 21 straight hitters and struck out six in a row in one stretch. This was the fifth start in a five-start stretch in which Salazar overcame the control bugaboo that had plagued him earlier in his career. To that point in the season, he had 48 strikeouts and 5 walks.

    Luis Castillo

    The stat: Castillo’s prolific changeup recorded 161 strikeouts in 2019, more than double the pitcher with the next-highest total (Stephen Strasburg 76).

    One game to remember: August 5, 2019 (Reds vs Angels)

    Castillo’s line: 7 IP, 2 R, 3 H, 13 K, 1 BB (highlights here)

    The changeup: 33 of 51 for strikes, 18 misses on 28 swings, 11 K, 1 BB – Angels 0-for-14 against it

    It was at its very best in this game, almost completely unhittable. Sure Mike Trout tagged him for a home run in the sixth inning. But the rest of the Angels lineup had almost no chance. His 11 strikeouts with the changeup match the most by a pitcher in a game in the last 16 seasons (Johan Santana and Alex Cobb also had 11)

    “He’s a joy to catch,” Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart said afterwards. “There  were a few times I didn’t even put down a sign. He knew what he wanted to throw, and he threw it.”

  • A closer look at the 2 best defensive seasons we’ve tracked

    By Mark Simon

    Who represents the ultimate in defensive excellence?

    That’s going to be a theme of some of the things we share this week, as we peek under the hood of Defensive Runs Saved in an attempt to better educate you on how the stat works.

    To do that, let’s start with this question: Who has had the best season in that statistic?

    The answers shouldn’t surprise you if you watch baseball highlights regularly.

    NameSeason/TeamDefensive Runs Saved
    Andrelton Simmons2017 Angels40
    Kevin Kiermaier2015 Rays38
    Matt Chapman2019 Athletics34
    Gerardo Parra2013 Diamondbacks33
    8 tied with 30

    We’ll go in-depth on the top two.

     Andrelton Simmons, 2017 (40 Defensive Runs Saved)

    Simmons has been amazing since his MLB debut in 2012, winning six straight Fielding Bible Awards from 2013 to 2018. If you’re curious for when Simmons was at his very best, the answer is 2017 when he finished with 40 Defensive Runs Saved (up from 32 in the previous version of the system).

    Nearly all of Simmons’ value that season was attributable to incredible range. Let’s illustrate:

    Here’s a look at how Simmons fared on every ball hit in which he had a >0 chance of making a play. When Simmons had a ball hit right at him, he was similar to most other shortstops in baseball. Most of those plays get made by anyone. But where Simmons distinguished himself in that he could scamper in either direction to get a lot more balls in the hole and up the middle than other shortstops could get.

     Plays MadeOpportunitiesSuccess RatePlays Made Above Expected
    Hit To His Left15322668%26
    Hit Straight On11612394%3
    Hit To His Right13821066%17

    The 26 plays above average on balls hit to his left (most often those hit up the middle) are the most in either direction for any shortstop since we started tracking this in 2013.

    Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was as good in 2016, making 25 plays above expectations on balls hit to his left, but he was only 3 plays above average on all other balls. In 2017, Simmons was 20 plays above expectations on balls hit straight on and to his right.

    To further make the point about Simmons’ excellence:

    Simmons made 55 plays on balls with historical out rates greater than 0, but less than 50%.

    The average shortstop would have made 40.

    Simmons made 27 plays on balls with out rates less than 30%.

    The average shortstop would have made 15.

    Simmons made 11 plays on balls with out rates less than 15%.

    The average shortstop would have made 6.

    Remember that these are plays in which hits are erased and outs are recorded. Make them in bulk as Simmons did and you wind up with astronomical Runs Saved totals.

    If you want to see what the best Defensive Runs Saved season looks like highlight-wise, check out this YouTube compilation of Simmons’ 2017.

    Kevin Kiermaier, 2015 (38 Defensive Runs Saved)

    Kiermaier’s 38 Runs Saved in 2015 are the most by an outfielder not just since 2013, but also since we first began tracking the stat in 2003. This is the season in which Kiermaier was at his healthiest. He played in 148 games in center, which is his highest total by more than 20 games.

    Kiermaier led all outfielders with 24 jumping catches that season. No other outfielder had more than 13. He used his elite closing speed to record 103 sprinting catches. No other outfielder had more than 79.

    As a result, he was able to pursue deep balls with a fervor unmatched by anyone else that season, which more than made up for a below-average plays saved rating on the shallowest fly balls. In other words, saving would-be doubles, triples and (twice) home runs was much more beneficial than letting a few extra singles fall in.

    Looking at this from a perspective similar to that used for Simmons, and looking specifically at balls hit to the deepest parts of the ballpark:

    Kiermaier made 147 plays on deep balls with a greater than zero chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 128.

    Kiermaier made 17 plays on deep balls with less than a 50% chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 7.

    Kiermaier made 9 plays on deep balls with less than 30% chance of being an out.

    The average center fielder would have made 2.

    We should point out that Kiermaier’s Runs Saved was also aided greatly by his throwing arm. He had nine assists without the help of a cutoff man, the most among center fielders. He also allowed 48% of runners to advance on hits, below the 54% average at the position. That combined to net him 7 Runs Saved because of the cumulative impact of his work.

    If you want to see Kiermaier’s highlight reel from that season, click here.

    In the end, what did it for Kiermaier and Simmons was that they were on the field a lot and when they were on the field, they were at their best.

    Over time, that adds up to greatness.

    Some of you may remember that Kiermaier had 42 Defensive Runs Saved in 2015 in the earlier version of the stat. The total dropped because of a new centering technique implemented by the PART system to ensure the sum of all DRS at a position in a season adds to zero (or close to it).

  • What to Expect Now That Shifts are Included in Defensive Runs Saved

    By Alex Vigderman

    You might have heard that we have a new Defensive Runs Saved as of this offseason. The nice thing is that even with 2020 baseball lagging behind a bit, these changes were implemented all the way back to 2013. What sort of fun can we have with that data?

    Well, one of the big-ticket changes that we made was to add shift plays back into player evaluation. Since the start of the shifting boom in 2012, we eliminated from evaluation any plays with a shift on. However, as shifts started representing roughly half of all balls in play as recently as this season, that became an untenable strategy. So now Defensive Runs Saved includes virtually all plays.

    How Much of an Impact Does Including Shift Plays Have?

    If shifts represent roughly half of balls in play, you shouldn’t be surprised that they have quite a bit of sway in our understanding of player value. Here’s how much that amount has changed over the years, using the proportion of total runs saved or cost (i.e. the absolute value of runs saved) that comes from shifts. This includes the Range and Throwing parts of the new PART System, because we don’t split performance on air balls in this way and positioning isn’t assigned to the player.

    Percent of Total Runs Saved or Cost on Shift Plays by Season, 2013-19 Infielders

    SeasonPercent of Total Runs Saved or Cost
    201311%
    201419%
    201525%
    201631%
    201730%
    201835%
    201943%

    At a player level, shift plays can be worth double-digit runs over the course of a season, although that’s only the very end of the spectrum. Who was affected the most?

    Most Runs Saved on Shift Plays, 2019 Infielders

    PlayerPosRuns Saved
    Kolten Wong2B14
    Paul DeJongSS12
    Kike Hernandez2B11
    Nolan Arenado3B11
    Javier BaezSS10

    Most Runs Cost on Shift Plays, 2019 Infielders

    PlayerPosRuns Saved
    Jurickson Profar2B-12
    Colin Moran3B-8
    Richie Martin Jr.SS-7
    Jorge PolancoSS-7
    Asdrubal Cabrera2B-7
    Gleyber Torres2B-7
    Rio Ruiz3B-7

     

    How Does Shift Performance Relate to Performance in a Standard Alignment?

    One thing you might notice from the leaders and trailers above is that the leaderboard tended to include players we already thought were strong defenders and the trailerboard tended not to. This all makes sense, because good players tend to be good regardless of the situation.

    Interestingly, in the aggregate our assumption seems to be misguided. Comparing the performance of players in shifts to their performance in standard alignments, the correlation is essentially non-existent.

    Correlation between Performance in Shifts and Standard Alignments, 2013-19 (using new PART System)

    DRS ComponentCorrelation between Shift and Standard
    Positioning0.03
    AirN/A (not calculated in shifts)
    Range0.13
    Throwing0.09

    Stats are all on a per-opportunity basis, and small samples are down-weighted when calculating the correlations

    This certainly is an odd finding, and the reason for it isn’t clear just yet. It’s possible that when players are re-positioned for a shift the distribution of their out rates transforms enough that while their actual skill isn’t changed, the way that their skill is reflected in their plus-minus-based statistics does, ahem, shift.

    There is just enough of a small positive correlation that over a full season of opportunities better players will tend to have positive Runs Saved in shifts and worse players will tend to have negative Runs Saved in shifts, but that’s about as much of a relationship that there is. This bears more investigation, but we wanted to at least report the finding and see where things go from there.

  • How will injured players be impacted by the layoff?

    By John Verros

    As we all know, the start of the 2020 MLB season has been indefinitely delayed. This is obviously best for everyone in terms of preventing the spread of the coronavirus, but what effect will this delay have on the players’ health outlook upon returning to play?

    It’s possible that this postponement will interrupt the typical two to three-month cycle of gradually ramping up workloads. Most players are assuredly staying in playing shape, but it is yet to be determined just how influential this break will be on the number of injuries we see within the first couple months of play. The last delay in the start of an MLB season was in 1995 – long before Sports Info Solutions started tracking injury data. It will be interesting to see the final impact once we are able to compare this season to the previous few.

    For some players this is a disruption in their normal cycle of work, but for several players this delay is a blessing in disguise. Below are six players who were either in need of an extra one to two months in order to get back to full health, or were questionable to make opening day.

    Miles Mikolas – Mikolas was shut down in late February with a right forearm flexor strain and had been expected to open the 2020 season on the injured list. This injury can be acute or it can develop over time through overuse. During his rehabilitation, Mikolas has undergone two PRP injections in order promote healing of the affected forearm flexor.

    While he was unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, the potential addition of a couple months could be just what was needed for Mikolas. Playing before an injury has healed can create a bigger problem, such as a ligament injury. The forearm flexors are known to protect the ligaments of the elbow. In a study done by Hodgins et al. (2017) 19.4% of MLB players required UCL reconstruction within 365 days of sustaining a forearm injury. Let’s hope this added time off will allow Miles to get the proper treatment he needs to get his arm correct.

    Mike Clevenger – Mike Clevinger underwent surgery on Feb. 14th to repair a partial tear of the medial meniscus in his left knee. He has made it a goal to return on the earlier end of his six- to eight-week timeframe.

    From the sounds of it, Clevinger underwent a partial meniscectomy. This surgery entails the removal of frayed or slightly torn pieces of the medial meniscus. This has a better outlook when compared to a meniscus repair, which involves suturing the torn pieces of the meniscus together. Rehab following meniscus repair surgery is more extensive than rehab after a partial meniscectomy because you have to allow the torn meniscus to heal. As a right-handed pitcher, this is Clevinger’s plant leg.

    This knee absorbs a large amount of force/stress every time he plants during a pitch. Even with a conservative approach we should see Clevinger available no later than the middle of May. I do not expect this injury to have a negative impact on his season.

    Aaron Judge – On March 6, Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his first right rib. Judge originally complained of soreness in his right shoulder/pectoral and now we know the cause was due to this rib fracture. The ribs are an uncommon site for a stress fracture, but through repetitive or intensified loading, they can possibly occur. Rib stress fractures typically appear as a weakened area in the bone due to the previously stated repetitive loading through the ribs causing the formation of microscopic cracks. That could explain why it took quite some time for the Yankees to pinpoint the cause of Judge’s pain.

    The majority of baseball players with this injury take several months of conservative rehab to heal fully. However, some players end up having symptoms similar to thoracic outlet syndrome (numbness and tingling down the affected arm). While TOS is not the norm in this situation, the result would be the removal of the first rib. It’s difficult to say at this point what Aaron Judge’s outlook for the 2020 season will be, but this additional time is certainly going to benefit his health.

    Giancarlo Stanton – Giancarlo Stanton was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his right calf on February 25. This injury typically takes 3-4 weeks to fully heal and is notorious for having a moderate risk of re-injury. Due to the delay of the season, the Yankees have been able to ensure the health of Stanton’s calf by taking his rehab process slowly.

    Stanton progressed from anti-gravity treadmill work (less strenuous than traditional treadmill) to throwing and on-field drills. Stanton appeared in only 18 regular-season games for the Yankees in 2019 due to multiple injuries, including a left biceps strain, left shoulder strain, left calf strain, partial quad tear, and a right knee PCL sprain. Let’s hope that Stanton is not only ready for the new start to the season, but is also able to stay healthy throughout the 2020 season.

    Nick Senzel – Senzel underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder back in September of 2019. He suffered the injury while crashing into the center field wall on August 31. Before the halt in play due to the virus, Senzel was already participating fully in Cactus League action as a designated hitter.

    However, he was not able to gain clearance to play in the field and that’s most likely in order to avoid having to make any long throws from the outfield. He’s been throwing from the outfield in drills, but it’s smart to bring him along gradually. This labrum injury will require constant maintenance from Senzel and the Reds training staff. Opening Day originally felt like he was putting his shoulder through unnecessary risk so this break could really pay off for the young outfielder.

    Justin Verlander – Due to this indefinite break, Justin Verlander and his team decided to take care of what sounds like a sports hernia. Though not confirmed yet, this issue has seemingly been an annoyance to him quite recently. I question whether he would have undergone this procedure on his groin if they were in the midst of a full regular season.

    There’s a six-week timeline associated with this “right groin surgery” which has led me to the belief of a sports hernia. Although a sports hernia may lead to a traditional, abdominal hernia, it is a different injury. A sports hernia is a strain or tear of any soft tissue in the lower abdomen/groin area. Particularly vulnerable are the tendons that attach the oblique muscles and thigh muscles (groin) to the pubic bone.

    I’m curious if his latissimus dorsi strain from early March was associated with this injury at all. His pitching mechanics possibly were altered due to his groin irritation. This is unlikely to impact Verlander during whatever is left of the 2020 season.

     

  • Fielding Bible Excerpt: Matt Chapman vs. Nolan Arenado

    The following is an excerpt from our new book, The Fielding Bible-Volume V, which is available for purchase now at ACTA Sports and Amazon.

    By Mark Simon

    The Fielding Bible—Volume IV included an essay analyzing who was the better third baseman: 2014 Gold Glove winner Kyle Seager or 2014 Fielding Bible Award winner Josh Donaldson.

    In the spirit of that essay, and using a similar methodology, we decided to look at another debate at the hot corner: Who is the better third baseman—Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado?

    This is a topic that has come up a few times in articles we’ve written. The support for Arenado is loud and proud, largely from Rockies fans, and understandably so, given that he’s won seven Gold Gloves in seven seasons in the major leagues. The support for Chapman is passionate but seems smaller in size, perhaps because he’s only played two-and-a-half seasons and is on a small-market team on the West Coast.

    Chapman has the overall edge in Defensive Runs Saved by a considerable margin whether we measure using 2019, the last two seasons, or the last three seasons, but that doesn’t necessarily satisfy those who like Arenado. So let’s look at this through the lens of different defensive components to show where the differences lie.

    We’ll use two years of data for our evaluation to account for Chapman’s two full seasons in the majors and to give both players a more sizable sample size than just 2019.

    Who has the better arm?

    Thanks to our new PART system, we have a few ways to measure this.

    Strictly going by Throwing Runs Saved, Chapman has an 18-8 edge. This makes sense intuitively if you’ve watched Chapman at all. He’s great at making throws from along the third base line right to the target at first base. Arenado has a good arm, but he doesn’t have the power behind his throws that Chapman does.

    In terms of accuracy, Arenado does come out a smidge ahead. Our Good Throw Rate stat looks at throws to first base and how often those throws resulted in an error, misplay, or good play by the first baseman to prevent an error.

    Arenado had 502 good throws, six throwing errors, two throwing misplays and 15 throws resulting in a good play by the first baseman. His Good Throw rating is 95.6% (502 good throws out of 525 opportunities).

    Chapman had 524 good throws, seven throwing errors, no throwing misplays and 24 throws resulting in a good play by the first baseman. His Good Throw rating is 94.4% (524 good throws out of 555 opportunities).

    Who covers more ground?

    To the eye, it may look like Chapman and Arenado are comparable in terms of their range. But the numbers indicate they are not.

    Chapman has a 38-17 Range Runs Saved edge over the last two seasons.

    Why is that?

    Let’s look at how each of them does on balls hit to their left, right, and straight on:

    Nolan Arenado by Direction, 2018-19
    Direction Plays Made Opps Plays Above Avg
    Left 279 495 27
    Straight On 279 314 7
    Right 113 181 -2

     

     Matt Chapman by Direction, 2018-19
    Direction Plays Made Opps Plays Above Avg
    Left 274 443 35
    Straight On 253 269 18
    Right 115 156 17

    Arenado supporters will likely point to Arenado’s signature—the barehand play. Indeed, Arenado had a 20-4 edge in barehand plays over Chapman last season (the only other third baseman with more than 10 in 2019 was Kris Bryant with 11) and a 38-11 advantage the last two seasons. But remember that those plays are taking away singles. Chapman’s specialty is defending would-be doubles, as noted by the success on balls hit to his right.

    Scout’s eye

    Throughout the season, SIS Video Scouts scrutinize every ball in play and assign a primary responsibility to one fielder on each ball. Then, they assign a 1-5 rating of the difficulty of each play, from a 1 representing a routine play that every fielder is expected to make to a 5 representing a play that the fielder had zero chance at making.

    The Scouts Defensive Rating awards credit or penalty for making plays relative to how frequently players at a position convert plays of similar difficulty. Those are then summed and debited for all plays on which the fielder was responsible to get the rating.

    Using the Scouts Defensive Rating system, Chapman had a 56.0 to 43.3 advantage in Plays Saved over Arenado over the last two seasons. The next-closest to them is Anthony Rendon, 20.9.

    Chapman’s advantage was basically negligible in plays with a 1 or 2 grade. He separated himself by converting 65-of-87 Grade 3 plays (74%) and 42-of-122 Grade 4 plays (34%), both of which were the highest conversion rates among third basemen.

    Arenado converted 58-of-89 Grade 3 (65%) and 45-of-146 Grade 4 (31%) plays. Not too shabby. But not quite Chapman.

    One other thing that our scouts do is chart Good Fielding Plays and Defensive Misplays & Errors. Good Fielding Plays are largely Web Gem-like defensive plays but also include things like keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a baserunner from taking an extra base. Misplays & Errors include all plays scored errors, along with things like failing to turn a double play because of a mishandled ball.

    Arenado leads Chapman in Good Fielding Plays over the last two seasons, 92-83, but also has more Misplays & Errors, 61-54. They essentially have the same ratio of Good Plays to Misplays & Errors, 1.5-to-1.

    Overall

    There are many good arguments to be made in Chapman’s favor in this discussion. In fact, you could make the case that the difference between the two is not close.

    The best argument for Arenado is the longevity one—let’s see Chapman do this for seven straight years. The fun of this will be watching whether Chapman can sustain playing at this incredible level given how injuries, wear-and-tear, and age could impact him down the road.

  • Q&A: Hall-of-Famer Ozzie Smith on Defensive Excellence

    Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith is arguably the greatest defensive shortstop of all-time. Known as ‘The Wizard’ for his ability to make impossible plays, Smith played 19 seasons with the Padres and Cardinals, winning a record 13 Gold Gloves, and a World Series with the Cardinals in 1982. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2002. He talked to Mark Simon last November.

    This essay is excerpted from The Fielding Bible-Volume V, available now from ACTASports.com and Amazon.com

    Simon: “What does the idea of defensive excellence mean to someone like you?”

    Smith: “Defensive excellence, as it is with everything, is trying to be as consistent as you can possibly be. When people talk to me about playing shortstop, the thing that comes to mind is great plays. But I think great plays are the result of keeping yourself in a position to make the routine play.

    So much of what I did, or any shortstop for that matter, was instinctive. It’s an instinctive position. A shortstop or middle infielder is somebody who should be able to cover ground and don’t have to play to a scouting report. The scouting report is still very important, but you still have to be able to make plays if a ball is in a certain area. For me, it’s freelancing and improvisation. It’s all those things melded into one that hopefully make you into a consistent player. Making the routine play every day. Great plays will take care of themselves.”

    Simon: “With that in mind, when you go into a series with a team like the 1985 Mets, what was the defensive preparation like for you and the manager, Whitey Herzog?”

    Smith: “I don’t think there’s any way to do it. You can have the best scouting report in the world. I can remember in 1982, the first game of the World Series against the Brewers. We went strictly by the scouting report. It seemed like we were out of position on every play. After that first game, we realized we just needed to do what it is we do. Everything is played off straight-up. We may shade one way or the other. There were very few guys that were strictly pull hitters. Guys like Dave Kingman, you could shade him a little bit more to pull than Tony Gwynn, who sprayed the ball all over. We still have to figure a way to get anybody out. That comes from being able to be improvisational, making plays that are not right in your vicinity.”

    Simon: “What do you think of the things that have come into play in the last 10 years with defensive positioning?”

    Smith: “Everything has its place as long as you don’t overcook it. The bottom line for me is being consistent in the things you do. As a team, it’s never going to change. If you want to be a good team, you need to be strong up the middle. You have to have a good center fielder, hopefully a good pitcher, catcher, shortstop, second baseman. If those things are solid, it gives you a good foundation to work from. But if you’re weak at those positions, and at being able to make that routine play every day, you’re going to struggle as a team.”

    Simon: “If you were going to tell someone watching the game what they should be looking for from a shortstop, what should they be looking for?”

    Smith: “It’s movement. A good shortstop, good infielder is gonna have good lateral movement left and right. Someone who always seems to be in the vicinity of where the ball is. A lot of that has to do with a pitcher pitching to his scouting report. If a pitcher can’t pitch to a scouting report and throws balls to where they’re not supposed to be thrown. I had a lot of fun with my pitchers because I’d tell them I was out there to catch their mistakes.

    That in reality is what it’s all about, to cover the mistakes your pitcher may make on any given day. I prided myself on being able to make and complete a play without being in the scouted position.”

    Simon: “The advanced defensive metrics surprise us sometimes and tell us something we didn’t know. In 2019, they liked Paul DeJong a lot and I was curious for your take on him as a shortstop.”

    Smith: “You know why? Because Paul DeJong was very consistent at making the routine play. That’s what a team depends on—when you go to the mound for a meeting, saying ‘Get a ground ball to this guy.’ That’s the guy you want to be. Paul DeJong is one of those players who’s not flashy, like Brandon Crawford of the Giants, but very consistent at what he does.

    I’ve had the chance to spend some time with Paul. He’s a bright, eager-to-learn young man who is just getting better and more consistent each year. That’s what we talked about.”

    Simon: “Do you feel the same about Kolten Wong?”

    Smith: “Kolten came into his own this year, won his first Gold Glove. I think you’ll see Paul do that as well. His consistency is something that can’t be ignored.”

    Simon: “Who do you see that reminds you of you?”

    Smith: “The position has changed so much from a defensive standpoint. From a prototypical shortstop standpoint, myself and Omar Vizquel probably paralleled each other more than anybody else because we were able to cover a lot of ground and not be dependent on positioning to make a play. I always looked at that as very, very important, to be able to cover mistakes, a bad hop or whatever. The ones who are able to do that are the ones who get a look at making the Hall of Fame.”

    Simon: “You played with a lot of players who young players would do well to emulate on defense. Can I get your take on a few, starting with Keith Hernandez?”

    Smith: “Best first baseman I ever played with. He made it easy for middle infielders because you didn’t have to be perfect with your throws. He had the improvisational ability at first base to know when to come off, when to stay on the bag. To me, a Hall of Famer.”

    Hernandez won 11 Gold Gloves, most of any first baseman

    Simon: “Willie McGee?”

    Smith: “Again, a guy who could cover mistakes. He covered a lot of ground in the outfield. Someone who was very consistent. You knew what you would get every day. That makes teams great.”

    McGee won three Gold Gloves in center field

    Simon: “Tony Pena?”

    Smith: “Great arm. A good defensive player. Fun to watch. One of those guys who came up at a time when catchers had the ability to throw a lot of runners out.”

    Pena won four Gold Gloves

    Simon: “Terry Pendleton?”

    Smith: “I’d rate him right there with Mike Schmidt at covering ground. He was one of the best at going back on the ball with his back to the infield. Surprising when you look at his size, you don’t see someone with great range or a great throwing arm. But he was very, very consistent.”

    Pendleton won three Gold Gloves

    Simon: “Is there someone from your era who doesn’t get his due defensively?”

    Smith: “I had a chance to play with Ken Oberkfell, who was also a great third baseman. They make the shortstop’s job a lot easier. It allows the shortstop to play more up the middle. It was easy playing over there because you knew that the ground to your right was covered. It allowed everybody else to move an extra step to their strength. When I look at the best teams I played with. The 1982 team and 1985 team were teams that moved in unison. If I moved a step, you moved a step. Ground was covered.

    That’s not taken into consideration, but when you look back, we operated as a unit. If I moved on the field, I had to let my second baseman, third baseman, first baseman know I moved. It makes everybody else’s job easier.”

    Simon: “When I was little, I watched The Baseball Bunch and I remember Ozzie Smith teaching me that ‘Wall Ball’ (throwing a ball against a wall and catching it) was a great way to practice. What tips would you give to a player who moved beyond ‘Wall Ball’ regarding learning the intricacies of shortstop?”

    Smith: “There’s no substitute for blood, sweat, and tears. As blessed as I was from a defensive standpoint with my hand-eye coordination, one of the favorite parts of my day was going out and taking ground balls. It put me in a certain place of peace. It was a release for me to do that. If there was a bad spot on the field, then it was important for me to know so I could anticipate a ball taking a hop in a certain place.

    Even when I played on AstroTurf, people say it’s easier because you got a true bounce. But you had to play around seams in the turf. In some places we played, the seams could be right in front of you. So you had to anticipate what the ball is going to do in a certain spot. That’s one of the reasons I took ground balls every day. One thing I try to tell kids today is that in life, you only get out what you put in. If you don’t put anything in, you shouldn’t be getting anything in return.”