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  • Inside The Rockets’ Late-Season Surge

    Inside The Rockets’ Late-Season Surge

    Photo: Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire

    When Alperen Şengün was escorted off the court in a wheelchair it was a common assumption that the Rockets’ season had effectively ended. Up to that day on March 10th, Şengün had arguably been the team’s most impactful player.

    Sitting at 29-35 on the season, the Rockets’ were 4.5 games behind the 10th place Warriors. Instead of having this be a disappointing end to an encouraging season, the Rockets won another 9 games in a row, pushing their streak to an impressive eleven games.

    The Rockets’ streak was largely fueled by their offensive improvement that a new lineup brought forth.

    Increased Spacing

     The Rockets quickly shifted to a starting lineup that featured more spacing and less size. Second year forward Jabari Smith slid down to center, while rookie Amen Thompson was promoted to the starting 5.

    As a result of this change, Houston has seen an increase in operating space on the court. By using player-tracking data, we can gauge how much space the team has on offense based on the location of their players, creating a convex hull.

    Before Şengün went down with injury, Houston ranked 20th in convex hull, with the team being slightly more spaced during minutes where Şengün was on the bench. Since the injury, the Rockets have skyrocketed up to 6th in the league, creating significantly more space on offense.

    As a product of this newfound spacing the Rockets have had the 2nd-best offensive efficiency in the league and are handling created advantages more competently.

    Pre Şengün Injury Post Şengün Injury
    Offensive Efficiency 113.5 (24th) 121.8 (2nd)
    Advantages Inherited* 108.3 (22nd) 113.5 (10th)
    Advantages Maintained** 39.5 (22nd) 20.7 (11th)

    *Advantages Inherited: Player’s inherit at least a semi-advantageous situation in their on-ball chance.

    **Advantage Maintained: Player inherits at least a semi-advantage and at minimum maintains their team’s advantage on their on-ball chance.

    Jalen Green’s Ascension

    Jalen Green has had an up-and-down career throughout his first three seasons in the league. Always an explosive athlete, Green’s shooting and decision making have been two of his biggest areas of improvement since his time with the G-League Ignite.

    Even before the change in the starting lineup, Green was in the process of elevating his game to another level. Throughout the month of March, Green had upped his 3-point volume and percentage. Along with this, his actual effective field goal percentage was an impressive 6.3% higher than his expected effective field goal percentage (something we track).

    The young guard’s improvement is not only due to some hot shooting, he has increased his on ball opportunities and advantages created as shown below:

    Pre Şengün Injury (minimum 1000 possessions) Post Şengün Injury (minimum 250 possessions)
    Ball-Handler Opps* (per 100 possessions) 58 (79th percentile) 70 (88th)
    Advantages Created** (per 100 possessions) 11.6 (72nd percentile) 15.1 (87th percentile)

    *Opps: Number of on-ball opportunities given the user-defined filters.

    **Advantage Created: Player creates an advantage for their team; an advantage is deemed to be created if the team can generate a high-value shot off of the player’s action.

    If Green can come close to sustaining this level of play, it would alter not only their outlook for the end of the season, but significantly brighten their long term future.

    Amen Thompson Fitting In

     Rookie Amen Thompson has been living up to his middle name, “XLNC” (pronounced “Excellence”) with his recent play. Thompson has molded his game to fit the Rockets needs throughout the season.

    Starting off as a steady defender off the bench, Thompson has steadily improved and has been rewarded with a bigger role as the season has progressed. First stepping in for injured starter Fred VanVleet as the team’s nominal point guard. Now Thompson is once again a starter, but this time acting as more of a big than a guard.

    With the absence of a traditional center, Thompson has found a new opportunity to act as the team’s screener in pick & rolls. Putting him in actions as the screener limits his liability as a shooter while placing him in the optimal situation to show off his passing and explosion.

     

    Pre Şengün Injury (minimum 500 possessions) Post Şengün Injury (minimum 250 possessions)
    Screener Opps (per 100 possessions) 2.9 (17th percentile) 18 (75th percentile)
    Advantages Created as a Screener (per 100 possessions) .1 (18th percentile) 1.3 (83rd percentile)

     

    Thompson has proved to be a dual threat on the roll, being able to make passing reads on the short roll or use his explosion to finish through the rotating help at the rim.

    Screening is not the only thing Thompson does like a big man either. Among  guards, Thompson ranks in the 98th percentile in contested offensive rebounds and the 89th percentile in contested defensive rebounds, respectively.

    Amen Thompson has clearly found great success in his new role, which speaks to his multifaceted skill set, and it will be of great interest to see how this role grows and changes into next season.

    Looking Ahead

    The Rockets will continue their strong push towards the Play-In, with a crucial game against Golden State on Thursday. Whether they make the Play-In or not should not be the deciding point on whether this season was a success.

    This team improved massively compared to last season. It withstood and adapted to one of its most important players getting injured.

    There is even a possibility that it found an ideal way to play and can use that information to shape its roster this offseason and beyond.

  • How The Milwaukee Bucks Offense Has Changed Under Doc Rivers

    How The Milwaukee Bucks Offense Has Changed Under Doc Rivers

    Photo: Ric Tapia/Icon Presswire

    The Milwaukee Bucks surprised the basketball world when they parted ways with Head Coach Adrian Griffin. After his 30-13 start to the season, the Bucks replaced Griffin with Doc Rivers, who won a championship in 2008 with the Boston Celtics and has since had stints with the Los Angeles Clippers and Philadelphia 76ers. 

    Despite Griffin’s seemingly successful start to the regular season, Milwaukee presumably brought Rivers in to shake things up and better position themselves for a run to the NBA Finals. 

    But what exactly has changed with Milwaukee in the 26 games since Rivers took over?

    Damian Lillard: Offensive Engine

    For starters, Rivers’ offense in Milwaukee has put Damian Lillard in more situations to create and initiate. After Rivers’ first game as coach, Giannis Antetokounmpo told reporters, “[Rivers] emphasized like, go more to Dame. When I have the ball, kick the ball ahead to Dame. Set more screens, roll out of the post, dribble handoffs – he wants more and we have to do it more. Because at the end of the day, when Dame has the ball in his hands…we can cause some damage”. 

    A look at this table shows an increase in on-ball opportunities and in Lillard getting the first crack at an on-ball opportunity.

    Damian Lillard

    Under Griffin Under Rivers
    On-ball opportunities per 100 possessions 67 (35th in NBA*) 82 (7th*)
    Possessions with first on-ball opportunity 47% 58%

    *Minimum 1,000 offensive possessions.

    Giannis Still A Focal Point

    Lillard’s uptick in opportunities has been achieved without sacrificing opportunities for Antetokounmpo. Here’s the table for Giannis.

    Giannis Antetokounmpo

    Under Griffin Under Rivers
    On-ball opportunities per 100 possessions 67 (34th in NBA*) 74 (19th*)
    Possessions with first on-ball opportunity % 36% 39%

    When either Lillard or Giannis are on the court, one of them has the first on-ball opportunity 72.5% of the time under Doc, up from 66% before he was hired.

    Ball Movement and Spacing

    As on-ball opportunities for their star players increase, Milwaukee is generally playing at a faster pace with more ball movement. Under Griffin, Milwaukee posted the lowest totals in the NBA for both on-ball opportunities (about 269 per 100 possessions) and passes (almost 99 per 100). These figures have seen a sizable increase under Rivers. On-ball opportunities have increased by 19 per 100 possessions. Passes are up about 17 per 100.

    With the increase in ball movement, the Bucks are having their players catch the ball in more advantageous positions. The Bucks went from ranking 27th in the NBA in inherited advantages* per 100 possessions to 21st. They’ve also jumped from 24th to 15th in maintained advantages** per 100. The table below shows the difference in inherited advantages for Milwaukee’s key role players:

    Inherited Advantages per 100

    Under Griffin Under Rivers
    Bobby Portis 12.4 13.7
    Brook Lopez 10.2 11
    Malik Beasley 9 10.3

    *Advantage Inherited: Player inherits at least a semi-advantageous situation in their on-ball Opportunity.

    **Advantage Maintained: Player inherits at least a semi-advantage and at minimum maintains their team’s advantage on their on-ball Opportunity.

    When asked by reporters about Lillard and Antetokounmpo’s playmaking, Rivers said, “They’re very unselfish. They know that they’re in the action, but they know it’s team action. So, they’re just making the simple pass to the open guy.”

    Milwaukee’s increased spacing during Rivers’ tenure could be one reason the team has improved at inheriting and maintaining advantages. Through player-tracking data, we can create convex hulls of the offensive shape (essentially, how spaced out the offensive perimeter players are). 

    Before Rivers became coach, the Bucks had the 6th-highest average convex hull in the NBA. With Doc in charge, the Bucks’ average convex hull ranks 1st.

    Conclusion

    Although the Bucks got off to a bit of a slow start with Rivers at head coach (they lost 5 of his first 6 games but are 13-7 since), they still hold the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference and a 2.5-game lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Central Division.

    It’s still yet to be seen if their offensive changes will lead to playoff success, but Milwaukee and Rivers are seemingly trying to model what their offense will look like in a potential playoff run, where Lillard and Antetokounmpo will need to be at their best to make a push for an NBA Championship.

  • Making Victor Wembanyama’s Case For Defensive Player of the Year

    Making Victor Wembanyama’s Case For Defensive Player of the Year

    Photo: Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire

    When Victor Wembanyama entered the NBA this past October, it was clear that with his unprecedented combination of size, mobility, and instincts, it was only a matter of time before he became one of the league’s premier defenders. 

    Few suspected that the timeframe in question would be measured in weeks, not years, including the Las Vegas betting lines, which gave him the 30th-best odds to win Defensive Player of the Year, just below Kelly Oubre. But as this season enters its final stretch, Wembanyama is widely considered to be the strongest challenger to Rudy Gobert’s push for his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award. 

    Rim Protector

    His meteoric rise into the top echelon of NBA defenders starts with his absolute dominance protecting the rim. Despite playing on a minutes restriction for much of the season, Wembanyama leads the league in total blocks by a substantial margin, having collected 45 more than the 2nd-place Chet Holmgren.

    It’s no surprise that Wemby puts a lid on the rim anytime he’s around it. Since the Spurs moved Zach Collins to the bench and Wembanyama to full-time center in early December, he has graded out in the 99th percentile for blocks around the rim and the 99th percentile in Contest Impact*.

    *Contest Impact: The reduction of expected points caused by the quality of a player’s contest. 

    But one reason his block numbers are so high is that unlike more traditional big men, Wembanyama’s rejection radius extends far beyond the rim. 

    Wembanyama ranks in the 99th percentile for blocks and 87th percentile for defensive field goal percentage allowed on shots in the paint, and in the 95th percentile for total blocks against midrange shots this season. 

    Simply put: if a shot is going up anywhere past the three-point line, there’s no one in the league more likely to block it than Wemby. 

    Disruptor

    Where the rookie’s defensive maturation really pops is in the pick and roll. There’s a strong case to be made that Wembanyama has been the most complete pick and roll defender in the league this season, not just in terms of rim protection, where he ranks in the 99th percentile, but also as a disrupter. 

    According to SIS data, Wembanyama’s steal, deflection, and rim deterrence* as the screen defender in ball screen situations are all in the 98th percentile or higher, and what makes him unique for a big man is that his shot contest numbers are just as dominant when defending ball handlers.

    *Rim Deterrence: An active scoring attempt by the opposing ball-handler is abandoned due to the defender’s presence.

    Wembanyama isn’t limited to simply being a dominant on-ball presence, though. He is also an elite help defender, already standing as one of the most effective weak-side rim protectors in the league, while showing impressive instincts and timing on rotations and playing passing lanes.

    For the season, take a look at his ranks 

    Category Percentile Rank
    Steals 87th
    Deflections 97th
    Rim Deterrence 99th

    These show that he’s not just a disruptor in ball screen situations,  his length and timing, his very presence, changes the geometry of the floor. No pass or shot is safe around his 8-foot wingspan.

    Webanyama vs Gobert

    While his case is strong and growing stronger by the day, there are clear hurdles Wemby still has to overcome if he wants to take home the hardware: most notably, the chasm between his team’s defensive rating and Gobert’s Timberwolves, and the inherent conservatism of the award’s voters. 

    For the first point, while it’s true that the Spurs have been a lackluster defensive team this year on the whole, Wembanyama stands as far and away the person most responsible for them being below average rather than worst in the league. 

    This season the Spurs have a defensive rating of 122 and a 57% defensive field goal percentage with Wembanyama off the floor compared to 114 and 55% with him on. 

    Since the move to full-time center, the team’s defensive rating has gone from 22nd in the league to 18th, while the team’s defensive rating with him on the floor has improved even further, to 112. 

    While that is still a far cry from the Timberwolves’ league-leading 109 defensive rating, it does illustrate that there are few players, if any, who single-handedly swing their team’s defensive outlook the way Wembanyama does.

    Tough for a young’un

    As for the second obstacle mentioned, it’s no easy feat for a young player to make real noise in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.

    No one younger than 23 has ever won DPoY in the NBA. In fact, since 2000, the only players 21 or younger to even crack the top five of voting are Kobe Bryant (2000), Anthony Davis (2014 and 2015), Jarrett Allen (2019), and Evan Mobley (2023).

    Alvin Robertson (1985) is the only 2nd-year player to ever win the award, and Leonard is the only player since 1992 to win in the 4th year of his career or earlier. The defining defenders of this generation (Dwight Howard, Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert) all won in year five. Joel Embiid was second in voting as a 2nd-year player, but he was already 23 and 4 years past his draft date at the time.

    There’s a good reason for this. 

    NBA defense is very difficult, and even the best defenders need time to learn, refine, and start dominating. Similarly, quantifying defensive impact can be difficult, requiring synthesis of multiple individual and team metrics, plus a heavy dose of the eye test, to approach anything like a well-rounded conclusion, which lends itself to voters wanting a large sample size before making declarations on young players.

    There are many barriers to a rookie winning – or even being runner-up for – the coveted award, but if there was ever a player capable of beating out those odds, it’s Wembanyama.

  • CEBL and SIS Name Huddle As Offical Betting Technology Partner of CEBL

    CEBL and SIS Name Huddle As Offical Betting Technology Partner of CEBL

    The Canadian Elite Basketball League (CEBL) and its official data provider, Sports Info Solutions (SIS), announced Thursday that Huddle has been named an official betting technology partner of the CEBL.

    Beginning in 2024, Huddle, a next-generation technology provider for gaming operations, will have the rights to leverage CEBL marks exclusively within the sports betting category. They will collect real-time game data from SIS and have the ability to launch CEBL sports betting and fantasy markets, while establishing and maintaining all live odds features within their created products.

    “As we continue our efforts to grow the game in Canada and across the world, this new partnership with Huddle will provide basketball fans more unique and entertaining engagement options and experiences with our CEBL brand,” said Mike Morreale, Commissioner and Co-Founder of the CEBL. “We’d like to thank our partners at SIS for helping broker this deal and fueling this project with their real-time data collection and distribution abilities.”

    “We couldn’t be happier to have Huddle joining us in supporting the CEBL as we deliver innovative basketball data and betting opportunities to fans of the CEBL and basketball globally,” said Dan Hannigan-Daley, CEO of Sports Info Solutions.

    “Our partnership with SIS and the CEBL is a game-changer. Huddle is eager to utilize our advanced technology to craft a market-leading InPlay betting experience, featuring an innovative single-game parlay product,” said Dylan Mitchard, VP of Business Development for Huddle Tech. “By aligning with the product parity of other top-tier global basketball leagues, we aim to elevate fan engagement and contribute to the sustained growth of the CEBL. This collaboration signifies a commitment to delivering unparalleled value to fans and enhancing the league’s position in the sports betting landscape.”

    The 2024 CEBL season tips off Tuesday, May 21 at 7 p.m. local / 9 p.m. ET when the Calgary Surge host provincial rival the Edmonton Stingers at Scotiabank Saddledome. Season tickets and flex packs are now available league wide with priority seating access and preferred pricing. Ticket information for all CEBL games can be found by visiting cebl.ca/tickets.

    About the CEBL
    A league created by Canadians for Canadians with a mission to develop Canadian players, coaches, sports executives, and referees, the CEBL boasts the highest percentage of Canadian players of any pro league in the country with 73% of its 2023 rosters being Canadian. Players bring experience from the NBA, NBA G League, top international pro leagues, the Canadian National team program, and top NCAA programs as well as U SPORTS. Fourteen players have signed NBA contracts following a CEBL season, and numerous CEBL players attend NBA G League training camps every year. The CEBL season runs from May through August. More information about the CEBL is available at CEBL.ca and @cebleague on Instagram, Twitter, TikTok, LinkedIn, Facebook & YouTube.

    About Sports Info Solutions
    Pioneers in the sports data space since 2002, Sports Info Solutions has been a leader in collecting, analyzing and distributing the deepest data sets and insights to professional sports teams across the MLB, NBA and NFL. The mission of SIS is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sports leagues, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at sportsinfosolutions.com.

    About Huddle
    Huddle provides automated pricing and trading services with leading uptime and accuracy to increase turnover and improve margins. Driven by the prowess of legacy proprietary product developed by DeckPrism Sports, Huddle offers industry leading pricing for core, derivative, micro and player prop markets. Their Same Game Parlay product now live for every major US Sport offering full market combinations for both pre-game and in-play. For more information, visit huddle.tech.

  • SIS Announces Partnership with BetVictor to Supply CEBL Data and Odds

    SIS Announces Partnership with BetVictor to Supply CEBL Data and Odds

    TORONTO, ON– May 23, 2023 – Sports Info Solutions (SIS) has announced a partnership with BetVictor to supply Canadian Elite Basketball League (CEBL) data and odds.

    Building upon the partnership established between SIS and the CEBL in 2022, SIS has developed new tools and capabilities for the CEBL, inclusive of data collection and data visualisations living on CEBL.ca along with the distribution of real-time CEBL data and odds, with special emphasis on delivering an innovative experience surrounding the Target Score finish.

    Dan Hannigan-Daley, CEO of Sports Info Solutions, said, “As the CEBL enters its 5th season, it has been great to collaborate with the league and unlock new and improved experiences for their operations team, consumers and, of course, sports bettors. We’re ecstatic to partner with a global betting leader like BetVictor and take the fan experience to the next level ”

    BetVictor and the CEBL announced their partnership last week, naming BetVictor as the official sports betting partner of the League.  

    Matt Scarrott, Director of Emerging Markets at BetVictor said, “We are proud and delighted to be the official sports betting partner of the CEBL. This new and exciting partnership with SIS, and the rich and real-time sport data, insights and odds supplied by them, will help us establish ourselves in Ontario and take the product onto the next level for CEBL fans.”

     

    SIS enhances collaboration between CEBL and BetVictor, enabling fans to utilize their extensive data for Money Line, Point Spreads, and Over/Under bets in the upcoming CEBL season.

    ###

     

    About SIS

    Pioneers in the sports data space since 2002, their mission is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sports leagues, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at www.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    About CEBL

    A league created by Canadians for Canadians, the CEBL is Canada’s pre-eminent professional basketball league. The league has the highest percentage of Canadian players of any professional league

     in the country, with 75 percent of its rosters being Canadian. Players bring experience from the NBA, NBA G League, top international leagues, the Canadian National team program, and top NCAA programs as well as U SPORTS. The only First Division Professional League Partner of Canada Basketball, the CEBL season runs from May through August.

    About BetVictor 

    BetVictor is an online gambling company and B2B solutions provider licensed in the UK, Germany, Ireland, Gibraltar, Malta, the Isle of Man and Ontario. Founded in 1946, the privately owned gambling operator employs more than 650 people worldwide with its global headquarters based in Gibraltar.

    Offering sportsbook, casino and bingo, BetVictor is committed to protecting customers from gambling related harm and is dedicated to improving the gambling experience by leveraging in-house developed technology and innovative products.

     

    CONTACTS:

    SIS

    Kelsea Benoit

    kbenoit@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com

  • NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

    NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview

    With the Eastern Conference Playoffs beginning today, we wanted to break down each first-round matchup using our proprietary data. Each tile chart below outlines how teams faired in their head-to-head matchups this season including all possessions played, and all metrics given are Per 100 Possessions and do not include garbage time unless otherwise stated.

    For a primer on Advantage Creation and some of the other metrics mentioned in these articles, check out our Twitter @SIS_Hoops and reach out if you have any questions!

    Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs Miami Heat (8)

    The Milwaukee Bucks defense is once again an elite unit, ranking 3rd in Opponent Points Per Chance (1.007), contesting the most shots in the league, and placing 1st in Adjusted Def Shooting Foul Rate (13.2), where players are penalized for fouls drawn by the offense.

    The Bucks are primed to make an up-and-down Miami Heat offense work for every basket. A good helping of the Heat’s scoring comes by way of the foul line, where they rank 6th in free throw rate this season (22.4).

    Shots in the paint outside of the restricted area, where Milwaukee gives up the most looks of any team in the league (8.6) and Miami happens to be the league leader in shot frequency (7.3) with a 49.6% FG% (6th), could be the battleground where this series is decided.

    Flipping ends of the court, Miami has been able to deter opponents from shooting at the rim, ranking 1st in Opponent Rim Attempts (30.5). Once opponents get there, however, Erik Spoelstra’s squad has not contested well, ranking 29th in Above Average Rim Contest % (32.6%). With the immense rim pressure that Giannis Antetokounmpo puts on defenses — ranking in the 99th percentile in rim FGAs with 18.0 and in the 83rd percentile in rim TS% at 70.4% — the points in the paint battle will be of paramount importance. Keeping Giannis away from the rim will prove difficult as he is 2nd overall in Advantage Creation (36.5), but Giannis’ TS% falls to the 11th percentile when rim FGAs are removed (43.1%).

    Boston Celtics (2) vs Atlanta Hawks (7)

    The Boston Celtics measure as one of the best offenses this season, ranking 1st in Expected Offensive Rating (104.2) and 2nd in Points Per Chance (1.116). It is hard to envision how the Atlanta Hawks slow Boston’s attack, as the Hawks rank 26th in Expected Defensive Rating (104.0) and 19th in Points Per Chance (1.046). Additionally, the Celtics rank in the top 10 in Advantage Creation (8th, 74.7) and are the best in the NBA at maintaining those advantages throughout the possession (1st, 34.3), while the Hawks rank 26th in Advantage Prevention (29.5).

    Because their chances of stopping the Celtics are low, the Hawks’ best path to victory involves outscoring the Celtics. Since the All-Star Break, the Hawks rank 2nd in Offensive Rating (122.1) and are led by one of the NBA’s most prolific Advantage Creators, Trae Young, who ranks 2nd in the league this season with 33.3 Advantages Created per 100 Possessions.

    And while the Celtics’ defense is very good, the team has allowed the 2nd most advantages per 100 possessions against Isolations, a place where two Hawks thrive. In Isolation, Young creates 4.9 Advantages per 100 Possessions (94th Percentile) and Murray creates 3.5 per 100 Possessions (88th Percentile).

    If he can create advantages, Young is capable of getting good shots for himself and his teammates. Young averages 22.4 Potential Assists per 100 Possessions (99th Percentile), but the main question will be if the Hawks can convert on those shots, where they have been inconsistent all season.

    Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs Brooklyn Nets (6)

    Since the Brooklyn Nets traded away superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the deadline, this series presents one of the largest star disparities: MVP favorite Joel Embiid and former Net James Harden versus Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie. For the Nets to pull off the upset, they will need all of their players to contribute on both ends of the floor.

    Since the All-Star Break, the Nets have struggled on the offensive end, but they have shown some promising signs on the defensive end, ranking 6th in Above Average Contest % (32.2%), which includes Blocks, Alters, and Plus contests, 1st in Least Defensive Miscues (6.12), and 1st in Least Advantages Allowed (45.0).

    While these are great signs for Brooklyn’s future, it will be much more difficult to execute in these areas against Embiid, who is in the 96th percentile for Advantages Created (27.4) and the 92nd percentile for Points Per Chance (1.181) and a Philadelphia 76ers team that ranks 6th in eFG% against Above Average Contests (38.4%).

    A particular area of interest with Embiid is the fact that Philadelphia ranks 1st in the NBA in Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate (13.8), where players get additional credit for fouls they draw. However, last season we saw the Sixer’s Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate decrease in the postseason.

    Lastly, how the Nets choose to guard Embiid is key – Claxton had a great year on defense, rating in the 98th percentile for Defensive Points Per Chance (0.944), the 95th percentile in Foul% on Contests (8.3%), and the 98th percentile in Advantage Prevention (12.8), but defending Embiid is a lot to ask of the young center.

    Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs New York Knicks (5)

    This matchup will be defined by how the Knicks’ offense fares against the Cavaliers’ defense.

    The Cleveland Cavaliers measured as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA according to SIS data, ranking 2nd in Defensive Rating (106.4) and 1st in Expected Defensive Rating (98.6). This indicates that they forced their opponents into difficult shots by driving down the value of those shots through high-quality contests.

    The Cavs rank 1st overall in Above-Average Contest % (37.4%), and they avoid below-average contests (3rd, 13.6%) and fouling (6th, 12.0%). On the other side of the matchup, the Knicks rank 22nd in eFG% against Above-Average Contests, which means they will have to convert those shots at a higher rate than they did in the regular season or create more open looks if they are going to challenge the Cavaliers’ indomitable defense.

    Additionally, the Knicks rank 4th in SIS Offensive Rating (119.2) but only 21st in Points Per Chance (1.057). The key to their success is in the SIS Advanced 4 Factors where the Knicks rank 2nd in Adjusted Shooting Foul Rate, they rank 3rd in Adjusted Turnover Rate, where players are penalized for unforced turnovers, and most importantly, they rank 1st in Contested Offensive Rebound %.

    The Knicks’ offensive rebounding will be key to their success, but it will not come easily as the Cavaliers rank 1st in Contested Defensive Rebound %. Who controls the glass when the Knicks are on offense could be a significant factor in the outcome of this series.

    Huge thanks to Matt Bolaños, Noah Thro, Connor Ayubi, Blake Benjamin, Rebecca MaWhinney, and Stewart Zahn for helping pull together research for these previews!

  • NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview

    NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview

    With the Western Conference Playoffs beginning today, we wanted to break down each first-round matchup using our proprietary data. Each tile chart below outlines how teams faired in their head-to-head matchups this season including all possessions played, and all metrics given are Per 100 Possession and do not include garbage time unless otherwise stated.

    For a primer on Advantage Creation and some of the other metrics mentioned in these articles, check out our Twitter @SIS_Hoops and reach out if you have any questions!

    Denver Nuggets (1) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

    The Denver Nuggets enter the playoffs with a powerhouse offense, ranking 2nd in Offensive Rating (119.5), 1st in eFG% (57.3%), and 3rd in Expected Points Per Chance (1.081). That potent unit is led by two-time MVP and current MVP candidate Nikola Jokic, who ranks 10th in Advantage Creation (28.1) and 3rd in eFG% Above Expected (+12.7%).

    Despite placing 3rd in the league in Advantages Prevented (33), the Minnesota Timberwolves will have their hands full with the efficient Denver attack, especially absent defensive stalwart Jaden McDaniels, out due to a hand injury, who placed in the 78th percentile in Advantages Prevented (7.7) and 81st percentile in positive Defensive Playmaking (3.2).

    Offensively, Minnesota has struggled with overall efficiency (111.1, 25th in the league), but the team’s offensive process has been better than the results, evidenced by the 16th-best Expected Offensive Rating (102.2) and 11th-most Advantages Created (72.9).

    While Minnesota has also maintained advantages relatively well (28.9, good for 11th in the league), Naz Reid, the team’s most prolific maintainer of advantages (8.4, good for 100th percentile), is sidelined for this series following wrist surgery. Making good on the team’s advantage creation absent its best connector/play finisher will be a crucial inflection point in this series.

    However, Denver’s defense could present an opportunity for Minnesota as Denver sits just 22nd in Expected Defensive Rating (103.3). While Jokic buoys one of the league’s premier offenses, he bears some blame for Denver’s porous defense, as his 15.6 advantages allowed place in the 0th percentile among qualified players.

    To make matters worse, Denver struggles to cover for its defensive lapses due to lacking off-ball defensive talent, ranking 25th in Off-Ball Advantages Prevented (10.4). If the Nuggets cannot tighten up their defense, they could leave a small window open for Minnesota.

    Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (7)

    With major roster turnover since the All-Star Break and LeBron missing time, the full-strength Lakers are still a bit of an unknown, but looking at their data since the All-Star Break will paint a better picture of what we can expect from this squad in the Playoffs.

    Dangerous and efficient when they push the pace, both the Lakers and the Grizzlies rank in the Top 5 in Points Per Chance in Transition at 1.552 and 1.515 respectively, and they average more than 10 Transition Possessions per 100 at 10.8 and 10.1 respectively. We can expect both teams to get out in transition; however, LA has been much better at defending in Transition ranking 1st in Opponent Points Per Chance (1.124) so it will be interesting to see if the Grizzlies can still take advantage in Transition.

    Moving into the halfcourt, both teams are effective at actively deterring shots at the rim with Memphis ranking 3rd overall (0.56) and LA ranking 3rd since the trade deadline (0.74), but this could have an outsized impact on Memphis’s offense as they are 2nd in the NBA in FGA at the Rim (40.3) and even though are the 24th most efficient team on these shots (62.7% TS%), these attempts still contribute to efficient offense overall.

    To keep the Grizzlies away from the rim, the Lakers will need to contain Ja Morant who is 5th in the NBA in Advantage Creation (32.9). They have the personnel to help prevent advantages with Anthony Davis (95th Percentile) and Jarred Vanderbilt (78th Percentile), but containing Ja will be a team effort.

    On the flip side, LeBron is also one of the NBA’s most prolific advantage creators ranking 8th (28.9), but Memphis is well positioned to defend anchored by Jaren Jackson Jr. who is in the 99th percentile for Advantages Prevented (13.1).

    Sacramento Kings (3) vs Golden State Warriors (6)

    The Sacramento Kings have reached the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, and they will face one of the most successful playoff teams of the last decade in the Golden State Warriors, but make no mistake, the Kings have been the better team this year. However, questions remain about which version of the Warriors we will see as the team reintegrates All-Star Andrew Wiggins, who missed the final 25 games of the season due to personal reasons, into the rotation.

    The Kings were the most potent offense in the NBA this season with an Offensive Rating of 119.9, but they ranked as only the 7th best in Expected Offensive Rating (103.4). They made up the difference by shooting the 4th best eFG% above expected (+2.9%). Led by De’Aaron Fox, who ranks 16th in Advantage Creation (25.3), the Kings were the 4th best team at creating advantages this season, averaging 76.4 per 100 possessions.

    The Warriors will need to slow down the Kings’ offense, and they have shown that capability defensively, ranking 4th in Expected Defensive Rating (99.6), 4th in Least Advantages Allowed, and 2nd in Above Average Contest % (35.1%). That last element could prove pivotal, as the Kings have the best eFG% in the league against Above Average Contests (41.3%).

    On the other side of the ball, the Warriors boast a prolific offense with the following rankings:

    6th in Points Per Chance (1.103)

    3rd in eFG% Above Expected (+3.1%)

    2nd in Advantage Creation (77.6)

    They’re led by Stephen Curry, who is 15th in Advantage Creation (25.7) and 4th in eFG% Above Expected (+10.8%). As has been the case throughout Golden State’s dynasty, the team struggles with turnovers, ranking 29th in Adjusted Turnover % (17.1%), where players get penalized for unforced turnovers.

    While the Kings do not force a lot of turnovers, they have been solid on the defensive end, ranking 4th in Least Defensive Miscues (7.8) and 4th in Above Average Contest % (33.4%). Though Sacramento’s quality contests may be mitigated as the Warriors have the 6th best eFG% against Above Average Contests (38.4%). Ultimately, this matchup may come down to which team can hit more tough shots.

    Phoenix Suns (4) vs Los Angeles Clippers (5)

    Very little data exists on the current version of the Phoenix Suns, who are undefeated in 8 games with Kevin Durant in the lineup, but for this analysis, we will look at what both teams have done since February’s trade deadline.

    Given the talent on these teams, it is no surprise that they both rank in the Top 10 in Advantage Creation (Phoenix 10th at 75.4 and Los Angeles 4th at 78.4); however, losing Paul George to a knee sprain, who averages 21.8 Advantages Created Per 100 (12th in the among all players), leaves a big hole for the Clippers to fill.

    Both teams subsist off a similar shot diet, ranking in the top 10 in Pull-up Jumpers per 100 (Phoenix 1st at 17.7 and Los Angeles 8th at 14.7), but Phoenix has an edge as it leads the league shooting 45.2% on these shots. The Clippers, on the other hand, are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the NBA across all shot types, ranking 2nd in eFG% (58.3%) and 2nd in True Shooting (61.6%), but they struggle to take care of the ball (26th in Adj Turnover %), which hurts their overall offensive efficiency.

    Outside of scoring, Phoenix has the upper hand, leading in both Adjusted TOV% (2nd vs 26th), and Offensive Rebound % (8th vs 23rd). On the other end of the floor, the Clippers have struggled to stay solid on defense, ranking 27th in Least Advantages Allowed (54.8) and 26th in Least Defensive Miscues (10.76) compared to the Suns, who rank 17th (49.5) and 9th (8.58) respectively.

    Lastly, if games get close down the stretch, a factor that could come into play is that the Suns and Clippers rank 5th and 6th respectively in Points Per Chance on Baseline/Sideline Out of Bounds Plays (Phoenix at 1.168 and Los Angeles at 1.165).

    Huge thanks to Matt Bolaños, Noah Thro, Connor Ayubi, Blake Benjamin, Rebecca MaWhinney, and Stewart Zahn for helping pull together research for these previews!

  • NBA Podcast debut: “Playing In Space” with Henry Ward

    NBA Podcast debut: “Playing In Space” with Henry Ward

    This week, SIS Basketball is launching its podcast Playing in Space.
    The show, hosted by Basketball Strategy Analyst Henry Ward, covers the NBA with conversations on league-wide trends through a philosophical lens, driven by insights derived from SIS’s NBA data.
    While some NBA coverage can tend to hover on league-wide happenings, many of which take place off the court, “Playing in Space” will focus more on what’s going on in between the lines and how our data can help tell those stories.
    In addition, the show will host philosophical discussions about better understanding the processes that go into basketball decision-making across the sport.
    In Episode 1, Henry is joined by Senior Basketball Strategy Analyst Max Carlin for a discussion of what the SIS Basketball group has been up to recently and to dive into some analysis of players and teams who found themselves in motion at the trade deadline.
    The two begin by walking through how their work on the NBA side differs from work they’ve done in the past and how it’s helped them develop their views on basketball at large.
    They then get into granular discussions on the development of Tyrese Haliburton, the fit of Domantas Sabonis on the Kings, the Celtics trade for Derrick White, James Harden joining forces with Joel Embiid in Philadelphia and Ben Simmons’ role with the Nets, before closing with an overview on a couple of other moves.

  • Stat of the Week: A Fresh Look at NBA Assists

    Stat of the Week: A Fresh Look at NBA Assists

    While we patiently wait for the MLB lockout to end and for baseball to begin, we thought we’d update you on some of the cool work we’re doing in another sport.

    In 2020, Sports Info Solutions expanded its sport coverage to include college basketball (you might recall this Stat of the Week). In 2021, we further expanded to fully cover the NBA.

    We’re doing the same kind of thing for basketball that we are for baseball – digging deeper to provide insights that help with player evaluation and game strategy. A team of 16 Video Scouts is watching every play of every game, charting things that have never been charted before.

    We’re often dealing with the world of opportunities.

    When judging whether an NBA player is a good passer, we look to his assist total. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. What about the instances in which that player created an opportunity for an uncontested shot?

    That’s the kind of thing that we’re tracking.

    If you want to learn more of the specifics, check out this article, which includes explanations and video review.

    But let’s get to the leaderboard.

    The top three NBA players at creating uncontested looks for their teammates are three of the game’s top stars, Luka Dončić, Trae Young, and Chris Paul.

    Here’s the top 10:

    A reminder that whether the shooter made or missed the shot is not factored in here. What you can garner from this is that Dončić is the best at creating a lot of high-quality opportunities for his teammates, doing so more than any other player on a per-possession basis.

    Just missing the cut on the leaderboard is the NBA’s rookie leader in this stat, 19-year-old Australian-born point guard Josh Giddey of the Thunder (5.4). Though the Thunder are near the bottom of the Western Conference, Giddey’s passing skills have provided prominent value.

    Beyond the Top 10, one player for whom this stat is educational is Cory Joseph of the Pistons. The Pistons currently have the worst record in the NBA and though Joseph’s numbers are unimpressive on the surface, he ranks 26th at 4.4 potential assists on open shots per 100 possessions. At age 30, it seems like Joseph still has something left to offer in terms of aiding his teammates’ shot creation.

    For more basketball stats and insights, follow the SIS Hoops team on Twitter and be on the lookout for their Playing in Space podcast, which debuts next week.
  • Sports Info Solutions Announces Website Launch and Rebrand

    Sports Info Solutions Announces Website Launch and Rebrand

    ALLENTOWN, Pa.  – SIS, a leading sports data and analytics provider, has completed an extensive rebranding effort in response to continued growth and expansion into new data markets. The rebrand includes a new website, company logo, color palette, refreshed positioning, more informative product descriptions, and an exciting company video, which can be viewed on the SIS website homepage: www.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    For the last 20 years, SIS has been a trusted provider of in-depth, rich sports data to major league teams, sports media, and fans. Powered by proprietary software and a team of analysts combing through game footage for the smallest details, SIS gives teams, sportsbooks, bettors, and fantasy players the edge they need.

    Energized by the proliferation of sports data and analytics across pro sports and by continued expansion of sports betting through legislation and regulation in the U.S., SIS will take advantage of the tremendous market opportunity. Its reputation for fast, extremely reliable data is proven with its impressive and loyal customer base.

    “This rebrand has been a long time in the making, and we’re thrilled to introduce our new look to our clients and customers,” said CEO Dan Hannigan-Daley. “SIS’ updated logo and narrative better represents the quality of data, our people and our products. We’re expanding into new markets with our deep data sets, including sports betting, and this rebrand positions us as reliable, innovative leaders in the industry.”

    SIS’ updated look and use of unique, dynamic sports imagery is sure to provide an engaging experience for partners and sports fans alike. SIS partnered with Team, a Brooklyn-based strategic design studio, to creatively execute the update.

    About SIS:

    Our mission is to enrich and optimize the decision-making process for sports teams, sportsbooks, and sports fans. Learn more at www.sportsinfosolutions.com.