Returning former walk-on and junior college transfer Stetson Bennett, Georgia’s offense performed even better this year than last, going from .13 EPA (Expected Points Added) per play to .18 and from 6th to 4th among FBS teams. In comparison, TCU’s defense ranks 39th, an apparent mismatch on paper. But given the Horned Frog’s strengths and improvements, the Bulldogs may face trouble.

TCU runs the 3-3-5, almost always featuring a head-up nose on the center. At linebacker, Dee Winters aligns to the wide side of the field, Johnny Hodges the short, and Jamoi Hodge the middle. Safety Bud Clark aligns according to the receivers, Mark Perry away from the receivers, and Millard Bradford in the middle. Jim Thorpe award winner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton complete the secondary, locking down the corners.

While also their largest unit, the secondary ranks as the Horned Frogs best as well, at 11th in Total Points per play. The linebackers place lower at 42nd, and the defensive line even lower at 116th. In spite of the weakness up front, TCU rarely sends four or more to rush the passer, doing so only 45% of the time, the least in the FBS. Instead, the Horned Frogs normally sit in a three-high shell, from which they play Cover 3 on 34% of passes and Cover 1 on 35%.

Given their small, nickel personnel and relative lack of experience, with only four multi-year starters, the Horned Frogs look ill-suited to stop the Bulldogs smashmouth offense. TCU has  faced 12 personnel on only 20% of its defensive downs, but Georgia runs it on 59% of its downs. Its package also features two of the best tight ends in the country.

Brock Bowers and Dwayne Washington average .06 and .05 Total Points per play, both top-10 among tight ends with 400 or more snaps, and prove nearly impossible for linebackers to cover or safeties to shed. Bowers has even run the ball on a few occasions, toting the rock on jet sweeps, ends around and reverses. Despite their design for small, shifty, and fast receivers, these runs have netted the 6 ‘4, 230-pound Bowers 94 yards and 6.6 Total Points on 7 attempts. 

What TCU can handle

But surprisingly enough, TCU defends against two tight ends rather effectively, allowing -0.19 EPA per play against this package. To match run-heavy personnel on the field, the Horned Frogs compensate for their lack of size by quickly adjusting their alignment to the formation at hand. 

Given heavy packages, TCU can either go base, one-high and drop two safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, or drop Bradford into the box. Putting the two overhang safeties down low lets them force runs inside to the linebackers much more quickly, and moving Bradford’s positioning gives the Horned Frogs an extra body to stop the run. These adjustments also leave TCU’s coverage mostly intact, as it can rotate safeties to their proper spots depending on whether it calls zone or man.

Normally teams struggle when forced to adjust their base defense, but TCU has thrived in this situation. As a whole, switching defenses has actually improved the unit, not weakened it.

Transitioning from Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5 match quarters to Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 three-high base, the Horned Frogs have lowered their points allowed per game by 8.5, risen 85 spots in EPA per play and 78 spots in Total Points per play from last season. TCU continues to improve too, having increased its EPA per play ranking from 73rd to 28th and its Total Points per play ranking from 49th to 28th between their first and last seven games.

The Bulldogs have a lot of weapons

Were Georgia limited to 12 personnel and keeping the ball on the ground, TCU’s defense would pose severe problems for the Bulldog offense. But fortunately for the Bulldogs, they have more weapons at their disposal and other ways to attack the defense. 

Georgia has a reputation for smashmouth football, and given its personnel choices and EPA per run ranking (17th) it is deserved. But it earns more EPA per play out of 11 personnel than 12, and rank higher in EPA per pass (2nd) than they do per run. With Adonai Mitchell returning from injury and joining Ladd McConkey, the two tight ends, and Kenny McIntosh, the passing game should do even better.

Even more important for this matchup, these strengths of Georgia’s offense align with relative weaknesses of TCU’s defense. Even with five defensive backs on the field, the Horned Frogs allow .12 more EPA per play against 11 personnel than 12. Though TCU does defend the pass better than the run, Georgia’s EPA per play margin between the pass and run more than doubles that of the Horned Frog defense. To add to the Horned Frogs’ difficulties, certain sets and formations give the defense even more trouble.  

Against formations with different personnel to each side, for convenience called “unbalanced” formations and consisting of sets like trips, TCU allows only -.13 EPA per play. Facing balanced formations on the other hand, such as twins or a wideout and tight end to each side, the Horned Frogs give up .11 EPA per play. 

Exposing a potential weakness: Twins

At face value, this split seems rather strange, but judging from the Horned Frogs normal alignment, the issues become clear. TCU can align at least five in the box against unbalanced sets, align enough defensive backs over the receivers and fill the alleys if the offense runs outside. But against balanced sets, particularly twins, TCU must either keep only four in the box to stop the run, or match a safety, and one who will likely not have help, with a slot receiver. 

Unfortunately for TCU, Georgia produces .34 EPA per play from twins. Even worse for the Horned Frogs, the Bulldogs’ most basic play stresses the seams in their defense. Out of the twins set, Georgia likes to run the inside zone, but with a pre-snap RPO for the receivers running the bubble screen, quick screen, or hitch. Depending on the look of the defense, Bennett can either carry out the zone-read against a shorthanded, misaligned, or blitzing box or throw the screen against an understaffed secondary.

The empty set exacerbates the issues in pass defense that TCU faces versus twins. The Horned Frog defense must either forfeit space to the receivers, risk a receiver burning an isolated defensive back for a big gain, or both. In the Peach Bowl, Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh took advantage of the space against Ohio State to score a 25-yard touchdown off a tunnel screen. In the Fiesta Bowl, Michigan’s Ronnie Bell beat TCU’s backside safety for a 44-yard gain off a corner post.

Georgia will likely come out in 12 personnel and attempt to pound TCU into submission. The Horned Frogs could cave, but they have the scheme and the guts to stay in this game and force the Bulldogs to look for other answers. Georgia may find them, given enough time to test the right personnel, formations, and plays. But the TCU defense will not make it easy.

TCU’s offense has completely changed course from just a season ago, jumping from 65th to 5th in points per game and 36th to 15th in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play.  Georgia’s defense, on the other hand, has continued its dominance from last season, ranking 5th in points allowed per game and 10th in EPA per play. Despite their different histories and styles, both will play Monday for all the marbles. For the week leading up to it, both will project how the other will play and prepare for what they anticipate.

How TCU Aligns

Like most offenses Georgia has faced this season, TCU bases out of 11 personnel, running on 46% of its offensive plays. 10 personnel ranks second amongst TCU’s most frequently used packages at 29%. From both these packages the Horned Frogs go Twins and Trips, occasionally detaching the tight end in 11. 

As the only other package used more than 15% of the time, 12 personnel allows the Horned Frogs to put two tight ends to one side and twin receivers to the other.

For defenses whose fronts and secondaries align according to the same principles, they likely will have too few defenders over the tight ends or receivers, depending on which position they emphasize covering. Defenses that align the front according to the interior and secondary according to the receivers, also known as detaching the secondary, can better manage this. But not without costs. They still may struggle with defensive backs facing tight ends in the running game.

Approach

From these packages the Horned Frogs run the ball 52% of the time. TCU bases out of Inside Zone, but changes it up with Power and Outside Zone. Off these runs Max Duggan provides another threat, as he can keep the ball off the Zone Read, run the Power, or take the Draw. Emari Demercado may take the bulk of the carries depending on Kendre Miller’s condition, a tribute to TCU’s depth at running back but Miller’s absence would be a  blow nonetheless. 

When passing, Duggan takes a 3-step drop 47% of the time, 0/1 steps 32% of the time, with hardly any screens or rollouts. Snag, Shock, Switch, Stick, and Cross all play major roles in TCU’s passing repertoire, usually with Quentin Johnston as Duggan’s primary target.

Kirby Smart, the second Saban disciple Sonny Dykes will face this season,  runs a similar 3-4 scheme to Alabama. The nickel package, however, plays the most, with Javon Bullard on the field 63% of the time.

The Bulldogs will go four down quite often, with linebacker Robert Beal Jr. putting his hand in the dirt. Georgia primarily aligns its safeties in a two-high shell pre-snap, from which it rotates to Cover 3 on 48% of passing plays. When showing a one-high shell, the Bulldogs still run Cover 3, but can also mix it up with Cover 1, which they run on 37% of their plays. The Bulldogs also prefer Cover 1 when blitzing, which they do on 26% of passes.

Throughout the defense, none of the units exhibit glaring weaknesses. All three starting linebackers rank in the top 36% in Total Points per play among FBS linebackers with at least 300 snaps, including Smael Mondon Jr. at 13th. All starting defensive backs ranked in the top third of their position in Total Points per play, despite the primary players being two sophomores and two freshmen. But between starting three upperclassmen, featuring potential NFL draft first pick Jalen Carter, and ranking 12th among all FBS defensive lines in Total Points per play20, Georgia’s front three leads the defense.

Defending the spread rushing attack

Georgia’s strongest unit will need to come to play against TCU’s spread rushing attack. The Horned Frogs exposed the Michigan defense when its defensive line, the Wolverines strongest unit as well, failed to control the line of scrimmage. But blaming the unit’s performance for the defense’s woes fails to account for other issues.

Throughout the entire game Michigan played with two standup ends, a difficult position from which to defend the run. Other times its center, Alan Ali, would face no tackle aligned on him, allowing him to either get an easier double team or to block the linebacker without hindrance. Both of these alignment issues left open space for TCU’s best and most popular run, inside zone. Off the zone cutback, TCU gained 140 yards on 11 attempts, good for 9.1 Expected Points Added.

Georgia will likely put Robert Beal Jr. in a three-point stance throughout the night, as it looks to prevent such easy yards for the run game. To vary the front, the Bulldogs may also put the three down linemen in a bear front to take away the A and B gaps.

In addition to poor alignment, unnecessary risks doomed the Wolverines. Blitzing five, six, and even seven did not get the anticipated pressure, and instead left the secondary short-handed and exposed. 

With what they perceive as the talent advantage, the Bulldogs will not go abroad in search of monsters to slay. Instead, they will likely stay in the two-high shell until TCU either runs through their defensive line or dots the field with short passes. 

Choices

TCU may have room to do just this. Without playing the safety closer to the line of scrimmage, Georgia will either have an alley exposed or apex a linebacker to fill the space. Which they prefer to do will depend on the situation and each team’s respective performance. Early in the game the Bulldogs may keep a linebacker, most likely Smael Mondon Jr., closer to or in the box. As the game progresses that linebacker may align closer to the receivers.

Against the expected alignments and coverages, TCU has options. If Georgia keeps its two-high shell, TCU could align in trips and either run or pass to that open space. TCU tried this a few times against Michigan, with mixed results. Outside zone, Stick, and Snag appear the most likely candidates for this role in TCU’s playbook.

The Horned Frogs can also create similar opportunities by motioning its receivers across the formation. Georgia’s defensive backs often follow players in motion, and depending on whether this happens TCU can decide whether to attack to the numbers advantage toward or away from motion.

Ohio State did this incredibly well in their first drive against Georgia. In four plays, the Buckeyes utilized formations and motions that not only revealed flaws in the defense, but gave the Buckeyes insight into how the Bulldogs would align and cover the rest of the game. Not to mention, they also drove 71 yards and scored.

Counter approach

Even more basic than formations and plays, the Horned Frogs may change their personnel. Kirby Smart has built the Bulldogs to defend the SEC’s 11 personnel offense. Only four of their opponents this season used 10 personnel more than 7% of the time, compared to TCU’s 29%. By going 10 personnel, the Horned Frogs can put pressure on the linebacker and safety alignment, leaving either too few in the box or the open space in the alley.

Georgia’s defense expects to have the better talent in this game. But TCU’s offense has road graders as well, and given a great gameplan by Sonny Dykes and Garrett Riley, the Bulldogs may have to stray from their base to keep a lid on the Horned Frogs. With the close margin between the talents and schemes of each team, the TCU offense and Georgia defense will need to plan, execute, and perform to their greatest potential in order to take home the crown.