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  • SIS NFL Preview Week 12

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Marketing Associate:

    The Eagles have not beaten the Seahawks in Philadelphia since 1989. It gets worse from there. It sounds very unlikely that Eagles starting right tackle Lane Johnson will be cleared from concussion protocol in time for this Sunday’s game. Since Carson Wentz became the starting QB, the Eagles are 3-9 in games played without Johnson. First round rookie Andre Dillard (a natural left tackle) has been taking first team reps at right tackle. Look for the Seahawks to line up Jadeveon Clowney on the offense’s right side (where he has been most productive this season) against Dillard early and often.

    Jadeveon Clowney’s Pressure% by Side

    Side of OffensePass RushesPressure%
    Right20515.1%
    Left10613.2%

    Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Saints offense played as well against Tampa Bay as it has at any point this year with Drew Brees running it. But it’s time for a second wide receiver to step up. Tre’Quan Smith showed lots of promise as a rookie but has had a disappointing sophomore campaign, due largely to battling a series of injuries. Ted Ginn Jr. is back to dropping more passes than he catches. And there really isn’t a natural fourth receiver to speak of. Can TE Jared Cook potentially make a second wide receiver superfluous against Panthers LB Luke Kuechly, who excels in coverage?

    Luke Kuechly vs. Tight Ends

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtINTs + DefensedPass Defense Points Saved
    Luke Kuechly114.234.2

    New York Giants @ Chicago Bears – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Giants go on the road to face the Bears, where there is still uncertainty over who they will be facing at quarterback. Mitch Trubisky may want to tough it out though, as the Giants secondary is as good as it gets these days in terms of boosting the confidence of opposing quarterbacks. While the Bears’ running game is not very strong either, it will be interesting to see how the Giants choose their defensive personnel in what is looking to be a low-scoring affair.

    The Giants corners have been struggling in 2019

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt AllowedPass Defense Points Saved
    Janoris Jenkins517.59
    Deandre Baker469.8-15.7
    Grant Haley2110.0-3.8
    Corey Ballentine86.1-2.9

    Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills – 11/24 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After getting the offense back on track against the Dolphins last week, the Bills move on to play a much more competent defense in the Broncos this week. With Ty Nsekhe getting injured, the Bills will be forced to play Cody Ford full time at right tackle. Watch to see how Ford responds to the speed rush moves from Von Miller. This will be a real eye opener for a rookie that hasn’t seen many dominant pass rushers line up across from him to this point in his career. Expect this to be a low scoring game, but if Ford can hold his own, look for Josh Allen to continue his success after coming off AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

    Von Miller vs. Cody Ford

    PlayerPass RushesPressure% (Rank Among Edge Rushers min 200 Pass Rushes)
    Von Miller28013.9% (17th)



    PlayerPass Blocking SnapsBlown Block% (Rank Among Tackles min 200 Snaps)
    Cody Ford2114.3% (51st)

    Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots – 11/24 4:25 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Going up against the Dallas Cowboys, who will be without star linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, look for the Patriots offense to get back to what they do best with screens, checkdowns, and interior crossing routes. Look for James White to have a big game, even if he has been relatively quiet in recent weeks. The Patriots will look to get White in good matchups against Vander Esch’s replacement to get him out in space and open in short yardage situations

    James White’s Value by Route Type

    RouteTargetsYds/TgtsReceiving Points Earned
    Out67.04.1
    Wheel315.73.0
    Curl124.82.2

    Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers – 11/24 8:20 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Going into Week 11, five teams in the NFC have eight or more wins. With only six playoff spots available, the last stretch of the regular season will be affected heavily by this SNF matchup. Look for the Packers to try to mimic the Seahawks and Cardinals ability to stop the 49ers prolific run game in order to put the game into Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. Although Garoppolo has proven he is capable of winning a game on his own, the Packer’s defense should prove to be a tougher test, especially after coming off a bye week.

    Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Packers D in 4th Quarter/Overtime Performance

    PlayerAttCatchable Throw%INT% Positive%
    Jimmy Garoppolo6682%1.5%54%
    QBs vs. Packers Defense10370%3.9%45%

  • New football podcast: Week 12 preview

    LISTEN HERE

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) preview the most important games for Week 12 of the NFL season: Colts at Texans on Thursday Night Football (1:20), Packers at 49ers on Sunday Night Football (6:19), Seahawks at Eagles (15:23) and Cowboys at Patriots (19:04). John Verros (@VerrosJohn) closes the show with expert insight on the injury to Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa (25:06).

    You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com footballoutsiders.com sportsinfosolutionsblog.com SISDataHub.com.

     

  • Top prop odds in Colts vs Texans

    By Steven Schwartz

    The Indianapolis Colts offense is a complete mess for prop bettors heading into tonight’s game with the Houston Texans. The loss of Marlon Mack (fractured hand) leaves the backfield in a running-back-by-committee situation and at the wideout position, No.1 option T.Y. Hilton’s availability is still a question mark heading toward game time. Due to his injury status all of the prop bets odds for Colts receivers aren’t yet available. Neither are TD passes and interceptions for quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 24-12, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last four weeks (we went 2-2 last week). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Jacoby Brissett, over 19.5 completions, -118.

    Given the upheaval at running back, the “run-centric” Colts may have to throw the ball more often. Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins are nice backups, but they aren’t Marlon Mack. In addition, the Colts will have to outscore the Texans in Houston this Thursday. In their first matchup this season Brissett went 26-of-39 for 326 yards and four scores. SIS data analysis predicts 23 completions which means a fair over should be -321, but the line is just -118. This is our best option of the night.

    2) DeAndre Hopkins, over 6.5 receptions, -106.

    It’s been since September since Hopkins caught less than seven passes in a game. With six consecutive games of seven or more catches and averaging 11.3 targets, Hopkins should be a bigger favorite than he is to go over the total. Our data says 11.5 targets and 8.1 receptions, making him a -232 favorite to go over.

    3) Duke Johnson, score a TD, +286.

    Johnson shares the backfield work with Carlos Hyde, doing most of his damage catching passes. He’s been a solid contributor all season and has scored a touchdown in three of the past five games (one rushing, two receiving). SIS data sets a fair number at +203, but the current number is +286.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Deshaun Watson, 1.5, over -136/under +107

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Deshaun Watson, 0.5, over -129/under +105

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Jacoby Brissett, 19.5 completions, over -118/under -106

    Deshaun Watson, 22.5 completions, over -106/under -118

    Touchdown Scorers

    Indianapolis

    ————–

    Jack Doyle +140

    Zach Pascal +150

    Eric Ebron +165

    T.T. Hilton +180

    Jonathan Williams +200

    Jordan Wilkins +200

    Chester Rogers +275

    Marcus Johnson +300

    Nyheim Hines +275

    Jacoby Brissett +600

     

    Houston

    ————-

    DeAndre Hopkins +105

    Carlos Hyde +105

    Kenny Stills +180

    Deshaun Watson +225

    Darren Fells +275

    Duke Johnson +285

    Keke Coutee +350

    Jordan Akins +525

    DeAndre Carter +600

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Houston –

    Darren Fells, 2.5, over +116/under -148

    DeAndre Hopkins, 6.5, over -106/under -120

    Duke Johnson, 2.5, over -109/under -117

     

  • Which QB is best at throwing the intermediate pass?

    We’ve been writing about quarterbacks and long passes and receivers and long passes recently, so this week, we’re taking a look at another type of QB throw.

    By Kyle Rodemann

    Watching your team complete a 15-yard pass on 2nd-and-10 feels pretty good. The drive continues, the QB is looking sharp, and the chance to score increases. While most quarterbacks can make these kinds of throws in their sleep, some excel in certain categories when it comes to “intermediate passes.” This article will look into which QBs have excelled at these throws so far during the 2019 NFL season.

    For our purposes, intermediate passes are balls that are thrown between 11 and 19 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

     Most Attempts

    Some quarterbacks prefer to throw the deep ball, while others like to game manage and throw the ball closer to the line of scrimmage. Other QBs have the weapons and tools to attack defenses in the middle of the field, in-between the linebackers and the safeties.

    Below is a table that displays which current starting quarterbacks have thrown the intermediate pass the most:

    Quarterback Number of Throws
    Jameis Winston 95
    Jared Goff 95
    Philip Rivers 94
    Matt Ryan 71
    Dak Prescott 68
    Kyle Allen 67
    Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz 66

    Andy Dalton also belongs on this list, with 83 intermediate passes, but has been removed since he no longer starts in the NFL.

    If there is one thing that all these quarterbacks have in common, besides their ability to attack the middle of the field, it’s the fact that they each have specific receivers that are chain-movers. The top three passers in this list enjoy throwing the ball to: Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, and Keenan Allen, respectively. With talent like that to throw to, it’s no wonder these QBs throw the intermediate ball so often.

    Most Accurate

    Just because a QB throws the intermediate pass the most, doesn’t necessarily mean they are the most accurate on those attempts. That’s a spoiler for this next table that looks at the highest Catchable Throw Percentage among QBs who throw the ball 11 to 19 yards down the field.

    Check out the table below:

    Quarterback Catchable Throw %
    Dak Prescott 85% (58 of 68)
    Aaron Rodgers 82% (37 of 45)
    Derek Carr 81% (39 of 48)
    Josh Allen 77% (46 of 60)
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 75% (35 of 47)
    Jimmy Garoppolo 74% (46 of 62)
    Matt Ryan 73% (52 of 71)

    Jameis Winston, leading the league in these pass attempts, doesn’t even make an appearance on this list. In fact, Winston is throwing an accurate ball on 72% of his intermediate throws, just missing the cut behind Matt Ryan’s 73%.

    One surprise on this list is Josh Allen, who was seen as an inaccurate QB during his rookie season last year. Cole Beasley sure makes a difference and helped raise Allen’s Catchable Throw Percentage from 63% last season to 77% this season.

    Highest IQR

    “Independent Quarterback Rating” is a metric that removes blame on the quarterback when he does not deserve it. This means that when a pass is dropped, he will not be blamed and his IQR will be boosted. On the other hand, if an interception is dropped, he will be blamed and his IQR will take a hit.

    The table below shows the highest IQR among QBs for intermediate passes:

    Quarterback IQR
    Derek Carr 135.8
    Lamar Jackson 133.4
    Patrick Mahomes 128.5
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 123.8
    Kirk Cousins 121.9
    Aaron Rodgers 118.6
    Drew Brees 114.3

    Derek Carr tops the list of QBs in IQR on intermediate passes. He has been very accurate (81% Catchable Pass Percentage as seen above) and has made few mistakes (1 interception). Ryan Fitzpatrick makes his second appearance in this article with an impressive IQR of 123.8.

     Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the ball between 11 and 19 yards down the field. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as explained by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the intermediate pass.

     Check out the league leaders below:

    Quarterback Points Earned
    Dak Prescott 35.9
    Philip Rivers 35.5
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 29.7
    Derek Carr 27.9
    Jameis Winston 26.7
    Carson Wentz 25.1
    Patrick Mahomes 25.0

     Prescott has added the most when throwing the intermediate pass. This is his third appearance in this article, making him one of the best passers in the league at throwing the ball 11 to 19 yards downfield. Fitzpatrick and Carr, two QBs who are seen as lower-end starters, also show their value when throwing this type of pass.

    Conclusion

    The intermediate pass is not always easy. It often comes with throwing over the linebacker and in front of the safety. Not all QBs are great at these passes. Prescott, Carr, and Fitzpatrick are three quarterbacks who excel at these throws. Look for these successful passers to continue attacking the middle of the field, targeting their talented receivers to help move the chains.

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 11

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – 11/17 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After losing to the Browns last Sunday, the Bills will look to get back on track this weekend against the Dolphins to keep them in a comfortable position for a Wild Card playoff berth. The Dolphins have suddenly found their way, winning their last two matchups. It has been reported that Josh Allen got the “green light” this week from Coach McDermott. After their win against the Titans in week 5, it had seemed as if Allen was becoming more risk averse. Expect Allen to have a more aggressive approach on offense this Sunday especially with the Dolphins playing without their star corner Xavier Howard.

    Josh Allen vs. the Dolphins Defense on Deep Throws (20+ Yards)

    PlayerDeep AttemptsCatchable%Yds / AttTD / INT
    Josh Allen3639%7.71 / 3
    QB’s vs. Dolphins4949%11.96 / 2

     

    New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles – 11/17 1:00 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After their first loss of the season against the dynamic Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, the Patriots go on the road again for another big game against the Eagles. Look for the Patriots defense to try and correct the struggles they had last week against the run.

    Although the Eagles don’t have as dynamic of runners as the Ravens, the Patriots defense needs to lock in to stop Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, and the very capable runner, Carson Wentz. Look for Patriots LB Dont’a Hightower to have a big game. He had his best game in terms of number of tackles (12) against the Ravens and he will look to continue that success.

    Eagles Top Rushing Threats

    PlayerCarriesYards After Contact / CarryRushing Points Earned (NFL Rank)
    Jordan Howard1192.718.6 (5)
    Miles Sanders742.64.4 (36)

    Patriots Defense vs. the Run

    TeamCarriesYards After Contact / CarryRushing Points Saved (NFL Rank)
    Patriots1892.547 (29)

     

  • New football podcast: Previewing Week 11

    LISTEN HERE

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) discuss some of the biggest upsets from last week’s NFL slate (0:43) and preview the most important games for Week 11: Texans at Ravens (8:12), Jaguars at Colts (16:39) and Chiefs-Chargers from Mexico City (24:01). John Verros (@VerrosJohn) closes the show with injury updates on Emmanuel Sanders (30:51) and Tyler Lockett (32:37).

    You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com footballoutsiders.com sportsinfosolutionsblog.com SISDataHub.com.

     

  • Top prop odds for Steelers-Browns

    By Steven Schwartz

    The surging Pittsburgh Steelers head into Cleveland for an important matchup. It will be typical AFC North weather, cold and a bit windy, but no precipitation should affect the game.

    The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).

    Our overall record is 22-10, including 4-0,  3-1, 3-1, and 4-0 the last four weeks (feel free to go back and look – our posts come out every Thursday morning or early afternoon). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114

    We start off with the best pick of the night. Since their bye in Week 7, Rudolph has averaged 22.7 completions per game as the Steelers have gone on a four-game win streak. SISBets analysis has Rudolph completing 24.4 passes on 38.5 attempts and gives him a 78% chance of going over. That puts fair value at -358, but the current line is just -114.

    2) Diontae Johnson, 3.5 receptions, under +134

    While we like Rudolph to go over his completion total, we go the other way with wideout Diontae Johnson. That’s because the analysis shows Rudolph will be throwing a majority of his passes to his backs (13.6 targets) and tight ends (6.3 targets). With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington taking a big chunk of the remainder, our tool projects 2.9 receptions for Johnson and gives him a 67% chance of going under 3.5. Fair value should be -203, but we are getting +134.

    3) James Conner, score a TD, +130

    After missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, Conner is not listed on the most recent injury report and will return for the Thursday night contest. The star running back has scored in five of seven games this season with the only two teams to keep him out of the end zone being New England and San Francisco. The Browns defense isn’t in that elite class. SISBets data gives Conner a 59% chance to score (-146) while we are getting +130 from the casino.

    4) Mason Rudolph, over 1.5 touchdown passes, +145

    The Browns pass defense is stingy on yards allowed, but had yielded a generous 16 touchdown passes in nine games. Until last weekend when they held Josh Allen off the board (he ran for two scores), Cleveland had allowed at least two touchdown passes in six consecutive games. We make Rudolph a 51% favorite to throw for two scores and like the +145 the casino has posted.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Mason Rudolph, 1.5, over +145/under -182

    Baker Mayfield, 1.5, over +138/under -175

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Mason Rudolph, 0.5, over -182/under +145

    Baker Mayfield, 0.5, over -235/under +183

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Mason Rudolph, 20.5 completions, over -114/under -109

    Baker Mayfield, 20.5 completions, over -139/under +112

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    Pittsburgh

    ————–

    James Conner +130

    JuJu Smith-Schuster +210

    Jaylen Samuels +285

    Diontae Johnson +285

    James Washington +375

    Vance McDonald +350

    Trey Edmunds +700

    Mason Rudolph +1200

    Nick Vannett +1600

     

    Cleveland

    ————-

    Nick Chubb -167

    Kareem Hunt +210

    Odell Beckham Jr. +225

    Jarvis Landry +225

    Antonio Callaway +500

    Demetrius Harris +550

    Ricky Seals-Jones +750

    Rashard Higgins +750

    Baker Mayfield +750

    Dontrell Hilliard +1300

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Pittsburgh –

    JuJu Smith-Schuster, 4.5, over +124/under -155

    Diontae Johnson, 3.5, over -167/under +134

    Vance McDonald, 3.5, over +145/under -182

     

    Cleveland –

    Odell Beckham Jr., 4.5, over -152/under +122

    Jarvis Landry, 4.5, over -114/under -109

     

  • Which receivers are best at catching long passes?

    By Kyle Rodemann

    Deep threats can change how a defense plays a team. Instead of consistently loading the box to stop the run, safeties will have to play back to stop certain players from taking the top off the defense. There are certain receivers that excel at “going long.” These receivers are coveted by teams and often sought after. Players with rare speed are taken early in drafts even if they aren’t the best prospect at the position.

    This holds true with receivers, as teams are always looking for those burners that can change the momentum of the game in one play. This article will dive into which receivers are excelling at corralling deep throws so far during the 2019 season.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Opportunists

    Receivers can’t do anything if their quarterback isn’t throwing them the ball. When a quarterback trusts their receiver, they are more likely to throw one deep in order to flip the field. There have been many deep balls thrown so far in 2019, but which receiver is targeted most downfield? The table below shows the highest targeted receivers on throws at least 20 yards downfield:

    Receiver Deep Targets
    Kenny Golladay 25
    Mike Evans 21
    Curtis Samuel 19
    Keenan Allen 18
    Amari Cooper 17
    DJ Chark Jr. 17
    Will Fuller V 17

    Kenny Golladay leads the pack with a healthy 25 deep targets. Matthew Stafford chucks the ball downfield to Golladay on 35% of his targets! One receiver making a surprise appearance on this list is route-running technician Keenan Allen. He is normally seen as the safety net for Rivers, so it is surprising to see him on this list with 18 deep targets. Will Fuller V has seen 17 targets downfield even though he has missed part of the season due to injury. Look for his numbers to rise once he returns to the field.

    Taking Advantage

    Getting targets downfield is one thing, turning them into receptions is another. Some receivers excel at tracking the ball deep downfield, while others excel at winning 50/50 balls at the point of attack. Either style of play leads to receptions for chunk gains. The table below shows which receivers convert targets into receptions at the highest rate (minimum 10 deep targets):

    Receiver Completion %
    DJ Chark Jr. 65% (11-of-17)
    Amari Cooper 65% (11-of-17)
    Tyler Lockett 62% (8-of-13)
    DK Metcalf 62% (8-of-13)
    Larry Fitzgerald 60% (6-of-10)
    Stefon Diggs 56% (9-of-16)
    Allen Robinson 54% (7-of-13)

    DJ Chark Jr. and Amari Cooper are tied for the lead, catching 64.7% of the deep balls thrown their way. It comes as no surprise, as both receivers are elite at creating separation deep downfield. It should come as no surprise that Russell Wilson found his way into our deep throw leaders article (which can be found here), seeing how two of his top receivers catch 61.5% of the throws he sends their way.

    An interesting tidbit: while Allen has seen a large number of deep targets (18), he is actually last in completion percentage among receivers with at least 10 deep targets; he catches only 16.7% of those targets (3-of-18).

    Helping the QB Look Good

    A quarterback’s Rating can help put the success of a quarterback into a concrete number. This number can vary depending on the receiver that is targeted, and the depth of the target. Certain receivers help their quarterback by returning a high Rating when they are targeted on deep throws. The table below shows league leaders when receiving at least 10 deep throw targets:

    Receiver Receiver Rating
    DJ Chark Jr. 147.7
    Amari Cooper 147.7
    DK Metcalf 145.0
    Demarcus Robinson 135.4
    Adam Thielen 135.4
    Tyreek Hill 132.6
    Tyler Lockett 131.1

    Chark Jr. and Cooper again lead the pack with a 147.7 Rec. Rating. This means the quarterback throwing them the ball has a Rating of 147.7 when throwing them the deep ball. Wilson’s top targets, Metcalf and Lockett, are again both found on this list. It also comes as no surprise that Allen has a Rec. Rating of 25, second to last among receivers with at least 10 deep ball targets.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which receivers have made the largest positive impact while catching the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of receiving Points Earned is that each catch has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Dropping a pass will bury a receiver, while making contested catches will result in a higher Points Earned.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which receivers have helped their team win the most while catching the deep ball:

    Receiver Points Earned
    Kenny Golladay 16.0
    Tyreek Hill 14.8
    DJ Chark Jr. 14.7
    Amari Cooper 10.1
    Marquise Brown 9.9
    Terry McLaurin 9.9
    Mike Evans 8.9

    Golladay has had the largest positive impact among receivers when catching the ball downfield, with 16 Points Earned. Chark Jr. and Amari Cooper find themselves in another table, solidifying how dominant they have been while going long. Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin both make their first appearance on this table. Maybe this means their teams should be giving them more opportunities to catch deep bombs.

    Conclusion

    Successful field-stretching receivers are hard to come by. Those that excel at chasing down deep balls are nearly impossible to find. Chark Jr. and Cooper are two prime examples of receivers that are consistently targeted deep, and that consistently catch those deep targets.

    Other receivers who perform well when going long, such as Brown and  McLaurin, aren’t afforded the chance to display their talent at a high enough rate to truly take advantage of the deep ball. It will be interesting to see if these teams continue their deep ball tendencies, and it will be interesting to see how these leaderboards change from now until the end of the season.

    QB Leaderboards:

    Here’s an updated look at how quarterbacks are faring in on-target percentage and completion percentage on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Highest Catchable % – Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
    Name Catchable % Attempts
    Jacoby Brissett 74% 19
    Jimmy Garoppolo 65% 23
    Matt Ryan 63% 32
    Kirk Cousin 62% 37
    Deshaun Watson 62% 42
    Gardner Minshew 62% 34
    Aaron Rodgers 62% 52
    Russell Wilson 61% 44
    Daniel Jones 59% 32
    Dak Prescott 58% 48
    Highest Completion % – Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
    Name Comp % Attempts
    Russell Wilson 52% 44
    Jimmy Garoppolo 52% 23
    Tom Brady 51% 37
    Gardner Minshew 50% 34
    Dak Prescott 48% 48
    Kirk Cousins 46% 37
    Deshaun Watson 45% 42
    Kyler Murray 43% 42
    Patrick Mahomes 42% 42
    Matthew Stafford 41% 54
    Mitchell Trubisky 41% 27

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 10

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in teams’ tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this week’s upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Coming off the Bye week, it appears the Saints will have all of their offensive weapons to go against one of the league’s worst defenses. Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Tre’Quan Smith all practiced on Wednesday. The most important thing in this contest, against what should be an overwhelmed Falcons defense, is the Saints getting their roster back together and gearing up for the stretch run.

    The Value of Skill Players the Saints Should be Getting Back this Week

    PlayerTotal Points (2019)
    Alvin Kamara
    		12
    Tre’Quan Smith3
    Jared Cook 0

    Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Kendal Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With Kareem Hunt set to come back this week, there is concern for a Bills defense that has shown inside run defense deficiencies since their game against the Dolphins. With Hunt joining an already dominant Nick Chubb in the Cleveland backfield, one would expect the Browns to elect to employ a run-heavy offense on Sunday. There are a lot of other interesting matchups to look forward to in this game as well. The most exciting should be the Odell Beckham vs. Tre’Davious White matchup. With White coming up clutch week after week and Odell struggling to live up to his contract, this could be a big measuring stick game for both players.

    Tre’Davious White vs. Odell Beckham

    PlayerTargetsComp%
    		Yds / TargetReceiving Points Earned
    Odell Beckham6758%8.613.2
    PlayerTargetsComp% AllowedYds / Target AllowedPass Defense Points Saved
    Tre’Davious White3749%5.218.7

    New York Giants @ New York Jets – 11/10 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    It looks like this is the first time all season that the Giants will trot out a different starting offensive line than week one. Center Jon Halapio is doubtful and RT Mike Remmers is questionable, leaving Daniel Jones the most vulnerable he’s been so far this season. With Saquon Barkley only having 14 carries last week, expect there to be a heavy focus on feeding Barkley early and often to take pressure off of Daniel Jones and try and get Barkley and the rest of the offense back on track.

    Daniel Jones Clean Pocket vs. Pressured

    AttemptsComp%Yds / AttTD / INTIQR
    Clean Pocket
    		15769%%710 / 599.1
    Pressured10066%5.81 / 361.3

    Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers – 11/10 4:25 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Look for the Packers to want to come out fast in their return back to Lambeau. The Packers were flat from the get go in Week 9 and were unable to figure anything out the entire game. They allowed the Chargers poor run game to look as though it was one of the best in the NFL. Now they welcome in the Panthers and running back Christian McCaffrey, who is making his claim as an MVP candidate. Look for the Packers to start quick on offense in order to give the defense momentum and confidence to limit McCaffrey’s big play potential. The Packers defense has been one of the worst, if not the worst, in allowing big plays so this will not be an easy task for them to handle.

    Christian MCaffrey has Excelled on Inside and Off-Tackle Runs

    DirectionCarries
    		Yds / CarryYards After Contact
    		Rushing Points Earned
    Inside525.11366.3
    Off-Tackle885.91727.4

  • New football podcast: Seahawks-49ers, Antonio Brown & more

    Listen here

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome FO Assistant Editor Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) to the show to preview Week 10 of the NFL season. The trio discusses the latest Antonio Brown drama (0:41) and previews the most important games of the week: Seahawks-49ers (4:04), Panthers-Packers (15:52) and Vikings-Cowboys (19:29).

    You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com footballoutsiders.com sportsinfosolutionsblog.com SISDataHub.com.