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  • Top prop bet picks for Chargers-Raiders

    By Steve Schwartz

    Week 10 begins with an AFC West battle between the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) and the Oakland Raiders (4-4). The Chargers were expected to challenge for the division title before injuries to the defense derailed them but have won two straight as that same defense has held Chicago and Green Bay to a combined 27 points.

    Props are evaluated using SISBets.com – our overall record is 18-10, including 4-0,  3-1, and 3-1 the last three weeks. Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Tyrell Williams, under 3.5 receptions, under -114

    It’s been seven weeks since Tyrell Williams has caught more than three balls in a game. And since the start of 2018 he’s cracked four receptions in just five of 21 regular season games. He’ll face his old team, the Chargers, who are stingy with pass receptions having yielded just 20 completions per game which ranks 7th-lowest in the NFL. The addition of running back Josh Jacobs has made the Oakland offense much more balanced and receivers (other than tight end Darren Waller) have seen fewer opportunities. SIS data says Williams makes 2.5 catches and should be -313, but we only have to give -114.

    2) Austin Ekeler, under 4.5 receptions, under -112

    Since the return of Melvin Gordon, Ekeler has been trying to carve out a niche. In the first game he caught 15 balls, but since has averaged just four receptions per game. He’s also barely been part of the running game (though he had 12 carries last week). SISdata analysis puts Ekeler with 4.7 targets and 3.5 receptions which makes ‘under’ fair market value at -264, but the line is -112.

    3) Mike Williams, under 4.5 receptions, under -141

    Mike Williams has caught more than 4.5 balls in just two of eight games this season and just three times in 16 times last season. SIS data predicts 6.1 targets and 3.8 receptions, therefore -201 is fair market and the current number is -141.

    4) Philip Rivers, under 23.5 completions, under -118

    The Chargers have won their last two games without much production from Rivers. He’s thrown just 57 passes and completed 40 in wins over Chicago and Green Bay. In fact, he completes just 22.3 passes in wins this season and 26.8 completions in five losses this season. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites Thursday night. Our analysis shows he will throw 34 passes and complete 22. of them making the under value at -164 while the current odds are -118.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Philip Rivers, 1.5, over -157/under +125

    Derek Carr, 1.5, over -112/under -112

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Philip Rivers, 0.5, over -108/under -115

    Derek Carr, 0.5, over -106/under -118

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Philip Rivers, 23.5 completions, over -106/under -118

    Derek Carr, 21.5 completions, over -121/under -104

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    ————————–

    Chargers-

    Melvin Gordon -106
    Keenan Allen +120
    Hunter Henry +125
    Austin Ekeler +165
    Mike Williams +190
    Andre Patton +800
    Virgil Green +1050
    Justin Jackson +1500

    Philip Rivers                    +2200

     

     

    Raiders –

    Josh Jacobs -125
    Darren Waller +150
    Tyrell Williams +200
    Hunter Renfrow +260
    Foster Moreau +325
    Zay Jones +450
    Jalen Richard +650
    Derek Carr +1100
     

     

    		  
       
       

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, 5.5, over -109/under -114

    Hunter Henry, 5.5, over +114/under -141

    Austin Ekeler, 4.5, over -112/under -112

    Mike Williams, 4.5, over +114/under -141

    Melvin Gordon, 2.5, over -125/under +101

     

    Raiders –

    Darren Waller, 4.5, over -141/under +114

    Tyrell Williams, 3.5, over -109/under -114

     

     

  • Which quarterbacks are best at throwing long passes?

    By: Kyle Rodemann

    There is nothing quite like the deep ball in the NFL. The anticipation that builds from the moment the ball leaves the QB’s hand and drops in as a game-changing completion gets the blood pumping and adrenaline going. Thrill seekers who are looking for the most exciting games often look for the highest scoring games: and those games often come with big plays and long completions. But which quarterbacks should these thrill seekers be watching? This article will investigate which quarterbacks should be watched when it comes to the deep ball.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Gunslingers

    A “gunslinger” is a quarterback that takes chances downfield by taking deep shots to their receivers. These quarterbacks are notorious for throwing the deep ball. So far in 2019, there have been a handful of “gunslingers,” with the No. 1 spot attempting deep throws at a much higher rate than those who follow. Below is a table that shows which quarterbacks have thrown the deep ball the most at the halfway point of the 2019 season:

    Quarterback Number of Throws
    Matthew Stafford 54
    Aaron Rodgers 44
    Russell Wilson 42
    Dak Prescott 42
    Deshaun Watson 42
    Jameis Winston 42
    Phillip Rivers 42

     

    Matthew Stafford has thrown the deep ball the most, and by a large margin; he has done it 23% more than the next highest deep ball thrower, Aaron Rodgers. Stafford has always been a fan of the deep ball but has been leaning heavily on the explosive play during a season that has featured an inconsistent backfield. With the loss of lead back Kerryon Johnson, expect Stafford to continue taking shots downfield.

    The Precision Passers

    The table below will show which passers have been the most accurate on passes that travel at least 20 yards down the field. Catchable Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that should be caught by the receiver based on where the pass is placed. Here are the season leaders in Catchable Percentage on deep balls so far during 2019 (minimum 15 attempts):

    Quarterback Catchable %
    Jacoby Brissett 74%
    Jimmy Garoppolo 70%
    Kirk Cousins 65%
    Daniel Jones 63%
    Matt Ryan 62%
    Russell Wilson 62%
    Deshaun Watson 62%

    This table looks a lot different when compared to the table displaying those quarterbacks who take the most shots. Some of the more timid quarterbacks are on this list, with Brissett only attempting 19 deep balls, and Garoppolo only attempting 20. On the flip side, there are only two players who belong on both lists: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. These two passers have taken plenty of shots and have been very accurate while doing so.

    In terms of who is completing the most deep passes, Garoppolo leads with a 60% completion rate (12-of-20). He’s followed by Wilson (23-of-42, 55%), Tom Brady (19-of-37, 51%), Minshew (17-of-34, 50%) and Dak Prescott (21-of-42, 50%). Brady already has one more completion on deep throws than he did all of last season, when he was 18-of-56 (32%).

    The Touchdown Machines

    Touchdown percentage looks at the percentage of deep throws that result in a touchdown. The following list can help determine where negative regression is possible, as a high touchdown percentage is often unsustainable.

    Quarterback TD%
    Jimmy Garoppolo 20%
    Case Keenum 20%
    Patrick Mahomes 19%
    Dak Prescott 17%
    Daniel Jones 17%
    Kirk Cousins 15%
    Tom Brady 14%
    Mason Rudolph 13%

    The long pass leader of last year, Patrick Mahomes, makes his first appearance on this list. It’s not surprising that it’s his first appearance, as he has battled with injury this season. It’s also not surprising to see him finding success while throwing deep, as he throws to one of the fastest players in the NFL in Tyreek Hill. One surprise on this list is Mason Rudolph. While he hasn’t attempted many passes downfield this season (only 23), his deep attempts are resulting in a touchdown on a surprising 13% of throws.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the deep ball. Check out the league leaders below:

    Quarterback Points Earned
    Russell Wilson 32.2
    Kirk Cousins 24.5
    Aaron Rodgers 21.6
    Gardner Minshew 18.9
    Dak Prescott 17.7
    Deshaun Watson 17.5
    Jimmy Garoppolo 14.0

     

    Russell Wilson has been phenomenal when throwing the deep ball. He leads the league by a hefty margin (7.7 points) when it comes to Points Earned. Wilson and Deshaun Watson, are the only players to make an appearance on three lists in this article, displaying their elite play when throwing passes at least 20 yards downfield. One surprise on this list is Gardner Minshew, who has a Points Earned total of 18.9, 1.4 points higher than Watson. At least in this regard, Minshew-mania is legit.

    Conclusion

    There are few players who truly excel at throwing the deep ball. Wilson and Watson are two players who continually throw the ball downfield, and who continually find success doing so. Quarterbacks who take shots try to will their team to a win. These plays can change momentum in the blink of an eye and are crucial to the success of many teams. We’ll see if these trends continue and if the quarterbacks on this list are still looking long well into January.

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 9

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills – 11/3 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After two weeks in a row that the defense was brought down to earth, there is potential for the same problem to affect the Bills again this week. The Bills have had trouble stopping runs between the ‘B’ gaps this season after the injury to DT Harrison Phillips. With the Redskins coming up, it is possible that the Bills will face a similar defensive task against Adrian Peterson and the Redskins’ hefty dose of Duo run designs. Especially after the departure of Jay Gruden, the Redskins have opted to put an emphasis on the running game under Interim Coach Bill Callahan.

    Adrian Peterson Has Been Elite on Duo Runs This Season

    Carries (NFL Rank)Yards / Carry (NFL Rank)
    21 (2nd)4.3 (4th)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers – 11/3 4:25 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Bears, but fired their offensive coordinator the next day. The Chargers could be expected to come out fast against the Packers, as this move generally gives teams a boost. That being said it shouldn’t take long for the Packers to regain their step with the infamous home-field disadvantage of the Chargers stadium. With crowd attendance most likely in their favor, and the expected return of WR Davante Adams, look for the Packers to progressively control the game throughout all four quarters.

    Davante Adams’ Hopeful Return Could be a Big Boost for the Packers

    PlayerTargetsReceiving Points Earned
    Davante Adams3613.3
    All Other Packers WR’s1056.8

     

    New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens – 11/3 8:20 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The one knock against the Patriots stellar defense so far this year is the level of competition they have performed against. Without any games against top-tier offenses or quarterbacks, many people want to see how they will fare in a competitive game. This Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens will be that first game, as the Patriots go on the road to face QB Lamar Jackson. Look for the Pats to try and take away the running ability of Jackson and force him to be a pocket passer. Jamie Collins will most likely be given the role of the quarterback spy in the middle of the defense. Collins’ speed and athleticism allowing him to make plays sideline to sideline could be the difference in the game by neutralize the running ability of Jackson.

    Jamie Collins’ Bounce Back 2019 Performance

    Pass Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Run Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Total Points Saved (LB Rank)
    30 (3)10 (4)40 (2)

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants – 11/4 8:15 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the addition of Leonard Williams, if it wasn’t obvious before, the defensive line is far and away the strength of the Giants defense. Combined with DT Dexter Lawrence, the Giants now have two athletic space eaters up front that should hopefully alleviate some pressure from the rest of the Giants’ leaky defense. This new duo faces a tough task right away though; the Dallas offensive line is one of the best in football and will require the new-look defensive line of the Giants to carry the defense if they want any chance of winning this game

    How Leonard Williams Compares to His New Giants DL Teammates

    PlayerPass Rush Points SavedRun Defense Points SavedTotal Points Saved
    Dalvin Tomlinson31114
    Leonard Williams7512
    B.J. Hill6612
    Dexter Lawrence4610

     

  • How The Eagles Can Improve Miles Sanders’ Running Production

    By Michael Lounsberry

    The Eagles have received a fair amount of criticism due to the use of their two 2nd round draft picks from the 2019 NFL Draft, JJ Arcega-Whiteside of Stanford, and Miles Sanders the former backup to Saquon Barkley at Penn State. Many fans are upset at the lack of use Arcega-Whiteside is seeing, and on the opposite end of the spectrum, there have been calls for more of Sanders carries to go to Jordan Howard, the former Bears running back the Eagles traded for in the offseason.

    Howard seemed like the obvious choice through the first 7 games to get more carries, averaging 4.5 yards per carry while Sanders averaged only 3.5. Sanders has managed to contribute in other facets of the game however, returning kicks after the injuries of Corey Clement and Darren Sproles, and is currently third on the team in receiving yards.

    After such a great campaign in his final year at Penn State, what has caused this slow start for Sanders in the running game? Is it just a rookie playing like a rookie? Or is it something more correctable that can be fixed this season? I took a look at the blocking schemes employed by the Nittany Lions in 2018 and compared that to the blocking schemes the Eagles had used through the first 7 games of the 2019 season.

    Miles Sanders came out of a primarily zone blocking scheme at Penn State, with 73% of his carries in 2018 coming on plays with zone blocking and all of his carries in 2018 coming from the shotgun. As seen below, Sanders averaged 6.1 yards per rush on zone blocking attempts out of shotgun, and 4.3 yards per rush on rushing attempts with gap blocking out of shotgun.

    Miles Sanders – 2018 Season
    Zone Gap
    Attempts 160 54
    Yards 975 231
    Yards per Rush 6.1 4.3

    *This does not include 6 runs that were Draw plays that feature a unique blocking scheme

    So how have the Eagles used him so far this season?

    Miles Sanders – 2019 Season Week 1-7
    Zone Gap
    Attempts 40 23
    Yards 138 82
    Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.6
    Shotgun Zone Shotgun Gap
    Attempts 26 18
    Yards 109 39
    Yards Per Rush 4.2 2.2

    Through his first seven games on zone blocking plays, Sanders averaged a disappointing 3.5 yards per rush. While his average of 3.6 yards per carry with gap blocking was slightly better, this is misleading due to over half his production (40 yards) coming on only three “wham” runs against the Packers in week 4. If these three carries are removed from the sample, he averaged a lowly 2.1 yards per rush with gap blocking. These carries include all runs, shotgun and non-shotgun. When accounting for just runs out of shotgun, there is a pretty substantial increase to his yards per rush with zone blocking. On 26 zone blocking attempts out of shotgun, Sanders averaged 4.2 yards per rush. On zone blocking attempts not out of shotgun he averaged a mere 2.1 yards per rush.

    Sanders had only three carries against the Bills last week before leaving with an injury, but his first rushing touchdown of the season came early in the second half on a 65-yard zone blocked play out of shotgun. This run would significantly increase his yards per rush on the season, so I felt it necessary to include his stats through Week 7 as that gives a better idea of how the Eagles have used him and how he had played up until that carry.

    Logically it makes sense that Sanders would be most effective running out of shotgun on plays with zone blocking. This is what he primarily ran out of at Penn State, this is what he should be most familiar and comfortable with doing. His success in this system is why the Eagles drafted him. However, only 27 of his 66 rushing attempts (41%) this season have been runs with zone blocking out of shotgun.

    For Sanders to keep trending upwards in the running game, the Eagles need to continue to give him the type of carries that have been proven to work best for him so far this season.

  • Top props for 49ers-Cardinals

    By Steve Schwartz

    Week 9 begins in Arizona where the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers look to keep their record clean against an improving Arizona Cardinals squad. Be sure to check the status of star running back David Johnson (ankle) before doing anything. He’s missed all but three snaps in the past two games and I don’t expect him to be in this one either, but a late change could have an effect on some prop bets.

    Props are evaluated using SISBets.com – our overall record is 15-9, including 4-0 and 3-1 the last two weeks (the only wrong pick was a longshot on whether Case Keenum would score a touchdown). Odds from ParxCasino.com

    1) Jimmy Garoppolo, 18.5 completions, over -139.

    Garoppolo hasn’t cracked the 18-completion mark in either of the last two games, but I’m blaming extenuating circumstances more than the quarterback. A monsoon in Washington led to little passing and an easy shutout win and last Sunday an early 21-point burst made passing an afterthought. In his first five games, he averaged 20.4 completions. The SISbets data makes a fair value at -330 on this prop bet and we are only paying -139.

    2) Kenyan Drake, score a touchdown +260.

    The newest Cardinals back will get some immediate work because he’s the most talented of what remains after injuries to Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). It’s Drake or last week’s signings Zach Zenner and Alfred Morris. Our numbers say Drake should be +150, but here we are getting much more than that at +260.

    3) Kyler Murray, 0.5 interceptions, under +134.

    Murray has gone four consecutive games without throwing an interception after throwing four in the first four games. He learns quickly. He’ll likely be under a heavy rush for the 49ers front line in this one, but that just means he won’t be throwing late over the middle which frequently is a very bad thing for under bettors. Instead he’ll use his legs after the first read and run. Run Kyler run! We make fair market value at -122 and we are getting +134.

    4) Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5 touchdown passes, under +133.

    “Jimmy G” has just nine touchdown passes in seven games and even throwing out the monsoon game in Week 7, he’s still averaging just 1.5 touchdown passes per game. Meanwhile, the undefeated 49ers have rushed for 13 scores on the ground this season. We make a fair number at -110, but we are getting +133 here. Take it.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -167/under +133

    Kyler Murray, 1.5, over +168/under -215

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -112/under -112

    Kyler Murray, 0.5, over -167/under +134

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Jimmy Garoppolo, 18.5 completions, over -139/under +112

    Kyler Murray, 20.5 completions, over -106/under -118

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    ————————–

    San Francisco –

    Tevin Coleman -125
    George Kittle +120
    Emmanuel Sanders +175
    Jeff Wilson +210
    Raheem Mostert +210
    Matt Breida +210
    Deebo Samuel +260
    Marquise Goodwin +300

    Dante Pettis                    +450

    Jimmy Garoppolo          +700

     

    Arizona –

    David Johnson +150
    Larry Fitzgerald +250
    Kenyan Drake +260
    Christian Kirk +275
    Kyler Murray +375
    Zach Zenner +375
    Damiere Byrd +450
    Alfred Morris +550

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    San Francisco –

    George Kittle, 5.5, over -165/under +132

    Emmanuel Sanders, 4.5, over +143/under -180

    Marquise Goodwin, 2.5, over +183/under -235

    Deebo Samuel, 2.5, over -155/under +124

     

    Arizona –

    Larry Fitzgerald, 3.5, over -125/under +101

    Christian Kirk, 4.5, over +114/under -141

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 8

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New York Giants @ Detroit Lions – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Giants travel to Detroit this week in a game that Daniel Jones needs to turn things around. Ball security must be a point of emphasis, as Jones cannot afford to keep turning the ball over at his current rate if the Giants want to be competitive for the rest of the season. Of course he is a rookie making rookie mistakes, but he must start sensing pressure in the pocket better and placing more emphasis on ball security when his internal quarterback clock ticks down

    Daniel Jones vs. Pressure

    AttemptsComp%Yds / AttTDs / INTsPassing Points Earned (Rank)
    7153.50%6.10 / 35 (20th)

     

    Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills – 10/7 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After they escaped with a victory against the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Dolphins, the Bills look to play to their competition yet again with the Eagles coming up. If the Bills want to have success this week, the focus should be for the offensive line to give Josh Allen time to pick apart the Eagles secondary. If the Bills offensive line can hold up against the Eagles front, Allen should be comfortable enough to start making the intermediate to deep throws that got him drafted so high in the 2018 NFL Draft

    Noah Gatsik, SIS Operations Associate:

    The biggest mismatch in this game will be John Brown vs. anybody the Eagles put out there to cover him. Expect a monster week against an Eagles secondary that has more holes in it than an afghan blanket.

    John Brown vs. Eagles Secondary (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    John Brown2713.815
    WR’s vs. Eagles8011.835

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints – 10/27 1:00 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    In spite of the possibility that Drew Brees starts in Week 8, it’s the health of other starters–Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith on offense, and Eli Apple on defense–that is the biggest question for the Saints as they host the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The loss of Cook could be big, as the Cardinals have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the entire league.

    Saints TE Depth vs. Cardinals Defense

    PlayerTargetsYds / Tgt

    Receiving

    Points Earned

    Josh Hill167.64
    TE’s vs. Cardinals6310.125

     

    Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots – 10/27 4:25 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Once again the Patriots are coming off a dominating defensive performance, in which they forced five turnovers by Sam Darnold. Going into this week’s matchup against the Browns, look for safety Devin McCourty to continue his success. McCourty leads the NFL in interceptions (5) and has also been utilized in a variety of roles. Aside from his normal deep safety position, McCourty saw many snaps against the Jets where he lined up in the box, as well as a handful in the slot. The versatile McCourty, along with the rest of the stellar Patriots defense, will look to help keep the Patriots undefeated on Sunday.

    Devin McCourty’s Performance (2019)

    TargetsYds / TgtINT’sPass Defense Points Saved (Rank)
    122.5525 (1st)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs – 10/27 8:20 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    As the Packers head on the road for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Chiefs, look for much needed secondary help to be found in rookie safety, Darnell Savage Jr. Savage, who has missed the past couple games with an ankle injury, is back to full participation in practice. The Packers defense has allowed too many big plays in the passing game recently against the Lions and Raiders. Now that they are facing perhaps the most explosive offense in the NFL, Savage should make a huge difference with his cross-field speed.

    Packers’ Safeties in Coverage (Throws 10+ Yards Downfield)

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtINTs + Pass DefensedPass Defense Points Saved
    Darnell Savage Jr.5037
    All Other Safeties1210.631

     

  • Top prop bets for Vikings-Redskins

    By Steve Schwartz

    The streaking Minnesota Vikings, coming off three wins in a row and averaging 36 ppg over that span, host Washington, who have only one win this season (Miami), and are a huge 15.5-point underdog in this one. Weather will not be a factor in the domed U.S. Bank Stadium.

    Here’s a look at some of the top props, using SISBets.com and odds from Parx Casino. You can get 10 free queries on prop percentages by registering.

    We are 12-8 in our picks so far after going 4-0 last week.

    1) Jeremy Sprinkle, under 2.5 receptions, -124.

    Sprinkle is getting playing time because the oft-injured Jordan Reed is hurt again and Vernon Davis is dealing with a concussion and questionable for Week 8. Sprinkle has yet to catch more than two passes in any game this season and the team has a total of 21 receptions from all its tight ends combined or three per game. The Redskins are a run-first offense and our statistics say he should see 2.3 targets and 1.5 receptions. The under should be -423, but it’s just -124.

    2) Stefon Diggs, over 5.5 receptions, over +100.

    Without Adam Thielen (hamstring), Diggs should see more than his normal target level and since Kirk Cousins has gotten hot over the past three games, he’s averaged 7.7 targets and 5.7 receptions. At +100 the casino has this as an even money bet, but our analysis makes Diggs a -171 favorite, with 9 targets and 6.5 catches.

    3) Kirk Cousins, over 21.5 completions, +100.

    Apparently they haven’t been paying attention to Cousins over the past four weekends. He has surprassed 21.5 completions in four consecutive games. And now he’s playing his former team, who messed around with his contract, franchising him twice when he really just wanted to leave. Karma is a b****. SIS Bets is predicting 23.8 completions. A fair market value for this prop bet should be -205, but it’s currently at +100.

    4) Case Keenum, score a touchdown, +2200.

    This one is a bet you only make if you are playing with “house” money. It’s a longshot, but not as long a shot as the casino would have you think. There is about a 10-percent chance according to our numbers that the Washington quarterback will run one in, but we are offered 22-1 odds. Keenum hasn’t rushed for a touchdown this season, but in 16 starts last season for Denver, he did it twice.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Props list

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Case Keenum, 1.5, over +142/under -180

    Kirk Cousins, 1.5, over -124/under +100

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Case Keenum, 0.5, over -152/under +122

    Kirk Cousins, 0.5, over +119/under -148

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Case Keenum, 19.5 completions, over -124/under +100

    Kirk Cousins, 21.5 completions, over +100/under -124

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    ————————–

    Washington –

    Adrian Peterson +225
    Wendell Smallwood +225
    Terry McLaurin +285
    Vernon Davis +500
    Paul Richardson +500
    Jeremy Sprinkle +500
    Trey Quinn +550
    Case Keenum +2200

     

    Minnesota –

    Dalvin Cook -225
    Stefon Diggs -121
    Olabisi Johnson +180
    Kyle Rudolph +200
    Alexander Mattison +285
    Irv Smith Jr. +325
    Laquon Treadwell +550
    Kirk Cousins +600
    Ameer Abdullah +800

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Washington –

    Paul Richardson, 2.5, over +100/under -124

    Jeremy Sprinkle, 2.5, over +100/under -124

    Trey Quinn, 3.5, over -120/under -105

    Terry McLaurin, 4.5, over +108/under -134

     

    Minnesota –

    Irv Smith Jr., 2.5, over +140/under -177

    Kyle Rudolph, 2.5, over -143/under +115

    Dalvin Cook, 3.5, over +105/under -130

    Olabisi Johnson, 3.5, over -118/under -106

    Stefon Diggs, 5.5, over +100/under -124

     

     

  • Evaluating NFL Offenses using Expected Points

    By: Robert Simpson

    In the article, “Evaluating NFL Defenses using Expected Points,” the notion of Expected Points Added per Drive (EPA/D)  is explained, demonstrating how assessing the difference between starting Expected Points (EP) and ending EP on a particular drive can measure a team’s defensive success. If you have not read this article, it is highly recommended to understand the principles discussed in this article, and can be found here.

    Applying Expected Points to Offense

    Once one understands how to evaluate defensive performance based on Expected Points Added per Drive, it is easy to apply this concept conversely to create an offensive measurement. Like its defensive counterpart, the offensive metric is derived from taking the ending EP and subtracting the starting EP. The only difference here is that the higher the measurement, the better the offense. Offensive EPA/D measures how many Expected Points an offense added per drive, on average, over the course of the 2018 NFL season.

    Ranking NFL Offenses

    The table below ranks NFL offenses for the 2018 season based on EPA/D and juxtaposes this ranking with three traditional metrics for measuring offensive success: yards per game, points per game, and turnovers.

    Team EPA/D Rank EPA/D YPG Rank PPG Rank TO Rank
    Kansas City Chiefs 1 1.65 1 1 T-7
    New Orleans Saints 2 1.39 8 3 T-3
    Los Angeles Rams 3 1.29 2 2 T-11
    Atlanta Falcons 4 0.94 6 10 T-7
    Indianapolis Colts 5 0.94 7 5 T-22
    Pittsburgh Steelers 6 0.933 4 T-6 26
    Los Angeles Chargers 7 0.92 11 T-6 T-11
    New England Patriots 8 0.92 5 4 T-7
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 0.83 3 12 32
    Carolina Panthers 10 0.81 10 T-14 19
    Seattle Seahawks 11 0.75 18 T-6 1
    Houston Texans 12 0.71 15 11 T-3
    Philadelphia Eagles 13 0.69 14 18 T-20
    Green Bay Packers 14 0.69 12 T-14 2
    Baltimore Ravens 15 0.51 9 13 T-16
    New York Giants 16 0.48 17 16 T-11
    Chicago Bears 17 0.45 21 9 T-22
    Dallas Cowboys 18 0.44 22 22 T-5
    Cincinnati Bengals 19 0.39 26 17 T-5
    Denver Broncos 20 0.34 19 24 18
    Cleveland Browns 21 0.33 13 20 T-22
    Detroit Lions 22 0.32 24 25 T-11
    San Francisco 49ers 23 0.25 16 21 T-30
    Minnesota Vikings 24 0.20 20 19 T-17
    Tennessee Titans 25 0.14 25 27 T-7
    Oakland Raiders 26 0.11 23 28 T-22
    Washington Redskins 27 0.10 28 29 T-11
    Miami Dolphins 28 -0.11 31 26 T-21
    New York Jets 29 -0.23 29 23 29
    Jacksonville Jaguars 30 -0.30 27 31 28
    Buffalo Bills 31 -0.38 30 30 T-30
    Arizona Cardinals 32 -0.699 32 32 27

     

    One team that stands out in these rankings is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In terms of yards per game, the Bucs had a prolific offense, third best in the NFL. However, they struggled to put as many points on the board as they should have because of their plethora of turnovers.

    Tampa Bay turned the ball over a league-worst 35 times over the course of the regular season, just under one turnover every five drives. That abysmal turnover rate was largely due to the highly volatile play of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the NFL’s turnover leader since 2017, Jameis Winston (tied with Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr). Despite this terrible turnover rate, the Bucs still ranked No. 9 in offensive EPA/D. It will be interesting to see if this offense can reduce its mistakes and reach greater heights under new head coach Bruce Arians.

    At first glance, a No. 4 overall ranking for the Atlanta Falcons seems too high, as they sit at No. 6, 10, and tied for 7th in yards, points, and turnovers, respectively. A deeper look at the numbers reveals that the Falcons ranked tied for last in the NFL in both starting expected points and offensive drives. On average, Atlanta started each offensive drive from its own 26-yard line and had 1.01 starting expected points. In contrast, the Saints started their offensive drives on average from their own 31-yard line, the league’s best mark, while touting 1.33 starting expected points. This amounts to a deficit of .32 expected points per drive, or 54 points over the course of the season. That 54-point differential would move the Falcons from No. 10 in points to No. 4.

    The NFL average amount of offensive drives across the 2018 season was approximately 179, while Atlanta only had 168. Adding their 1.0 average starting expected points to their .94 offensive EPA/D and multiplying the result by these 11 missed drives, the Falcons missed out on more than 21 points on the season by not having these opportunities. This poor starting field position and low number of drives is mostly due to Atlanta’s subpar, injury-riddled defense. Using the defensive EPA/D ranking, its defense was the second worst in the NFL.

    Conclusion

    A variety of factors contribute to a team’s offensive success, from the performance of the quarterback to the ability of individual linemen, but the effect of field position cannot be understated. Using offensive EPA/D distinguishes truly elite offenses from those who have unproportionally benefitted from the field position provided by their defense and special teams. Offensive EPA/D also accentuates the importance of avoiding turnovers and paints a better picture of offensive performance as a whole. 

     

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 7

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Cyril Zackary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Raiders sit squarely in the AFC playoff picture at 3-2, but have a daunting test coming off a bye as they travel to Lambeau Field. Derek Carr ranks fifth among all quarterbacks with a Catchable Throw% of 81%, but his average throw depth sits at a lowly 5.6 yards. Jon Gruden is scheming to get the ball out of his hands quickly to put them in manageable down and distance situations. Stringing together long, methodical drives will be the recipe to knock off Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the road.

    Derek Carr vs Aaron Rodgers

    PlayerAvg Throw DepthCatchable Throw%

    Passing

    Total Points Earned

    Derek Carr5.681%31
    Aaron Rodgers7.475%45

     

    Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the probable returns of Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram this week against Arizona, expect Daniel Jones to get back on track. Although Jones has faced stronger defenses the past three weeks, he’s also been without arguably the best weapon in the league in Barkley. The return of Barkley should elevate Jones’ game and make throws that haven’t been so easy the past three weeks much more manageable. The porous Arizona defense should help Jones return to his week 3 form as well.

    Daniel Jones Passing Performance by Week

    WeekCatchable Throw%Yds/AttIQRPassing Total Points Earned
    381%9.3112.87.2
    484%7.3680.7
    584%4.898.45.7
    671%5.243-8.1

     

    Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – 10/20 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Coming up against the Dolphins this week, look for the Bills to finally find their groove on the offensive side of the ball. Meshing the Bills top 5 defense with a consistent offense should be the goal. And this could be the week the Bills finally find their offensive identity with the return of RB Devin Singletary and the recent emergence of WR Duke Williams who caught all of his targets in his first NFL game.

    How the Bills Top QB/RB/WR Trio Has Performed in 2019

    PlayerTotal Points EarnedPosition Rank
    QB Josh Allen034th
    RB Frank Gore1825th
    WR John Brown1116th

     

    New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears – 10/20 4:25 PM ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Saints have held the football 33 minutes or more in each of the past three weeks, which has coincided with (relatively) dominant defensive efforts. As strong as the Bears’ defense has been, they are allowing a completion percentage of 70%, which is ranks 28th in the league. Look for Sean Payton to continue to emphasize a run-heavy and easy-completions-offense once again to maintain ball control in what figures to be another low-scoring matchup.

    Saints Top Targets (w/ Alvin Kamara out) on Short Passes (7 or Fewer Yards Downfield) Since Week 2

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiver RatingReceiving Total Points Earned
    Michael Thomas376.7121.48.6
    Jared Cook134.2110.6-0.7

     

    New England Patriots @ New York Jets – 10/21 8:15 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout on the Patriots:

    The storyline going into the Patriots Monday Night game against the Jets is who Tom Brady will throw the ball to. New England’s top three receivers, including Julian Edelman, are all less than 100%. Number four receiver Jakobi Meyers and punt returner Gunner Olszewski were forced into big roles at receiver for the majority of last week’s game. Look for the reliable James White to have a big game along with Edelman. The Patriots offense has been bailed out of games because of how well the defense has been playing. Brady will look to right the ship on offense by throwing the ball to his most reliable and trusted targets.

    Brady’s Most Reliable Weapons

    PlayerTargetsYds / TgtReceiving Total Points Earned
    Julian Edelman558.211.4
    James White395.77.4

    Zac Stempler, SIS Football Video Scout on the Jets:

    Sam Darnold is back and the Jets have erased that zero in the win column. The main thing to watch is if this offense can continue its momentum against, quite possibly, the stingiest defense in the league. Many thought Adam Gase’s offense would be built around quick passes.  However, with the return of Darnold, the offense was able to stretch the field with WR’s Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder. Look for this to continue in a tough battle against the undefeated Patriots. A valiant effort against their rival would go a long way for the confidence of the team moving forward.

    Sam Darnold vs. All Other Jets QB’s on Throws 15+ Yards Downfield

    PlayerAttCatchable Throw%Yds/AttPassing Total Points Earned
    Sam Darnold1457%17.13.7
    Other Jets QB’s1136%7.5-7.7

     

  • How Good Is the Patriots’ Defense, Really?

    By Brian Reiff

    The Patriots are again one of the NFL’s top teams. Not something that’s surprising to anyone, but the way in which they’re doing it has made headlines.

    The Patriots’ defense has been other-worldly this season, ranking first by an assortment of metrics: points allowed, yards per play, total yards allowed (among teams that have played six games), turnovers forced, Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A), and pretty much any other stat you can find on Pro-Football Reference. In fact, the Patriots are so good that they’re actually forcing turnovers on a higher percentage of drives (20%) than they’re allowing the opposing team to score (6%).

    Even when looking at more advanced metrics, the Patriots still come out on top. A good way to measure performance is through Expected Points, specifically looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) per 60 plays. By this metric, the Patriots have still been the top defense, but their gap at the top is narrower than some might’ve thought.

    2019 EPA Allowed Per 60 Plays Leaders

    TeamEPA Allowed Per 60 Plays
    Patriots-22.2
    49ers-19.8
    Bills-9.6
    Titans-6.0
    Vikings-5.4

    A negative number here is good for the defense, indicating the offense was losing an average of 22.2 Expected Points every time they ran a game’s worth of plays against the Patriots defense. However, the 49ers are right there with them, with both enjoying a large lead over the rest of the league.

    However, there is still a notable factor being left out of this analysis. The Patriots have played one of the easiest schedules in the league, feasting on the likes of the Steelers (2-4), Dolphins (0-5), Jets (1-4), Redskins (1-5) and Giants (2-4). Has their defense actually been as good as the number show, or have they just played bad teams that have inflated their numbers?

    To determine this, we can look at what the Patriots’ opponents have done in their games against teams other than the Patriots.

    For example, the Jets averaged -28.8 EPA per 60 plays against the Patriots, but they’ve averaged -15.0 EPA per 60 plays in the rest of their games against the Bills, Browns, Eagles and Cowboys. With those numbers, we could say that the Patriots were 13.8 points better than an “average” team was against the Jets (the Jets have likely not played an exactly “average” schedule, but in the aggregate among all teams it should be close enough).

    All of the Patriots’ opponents this season have combined to average -5.4 EPA per 60 plays in their games against teams that weren’t the Patriots, which ends up being the second-lowest mark by a team (the Cowboys’ opponents have averaged -7.2 EPA per 60 plays). If we take the Patriots’ overall number (-22.2) and compare it against their opponents’ average (-5.4), we see that the Patriots’ defense was 16.8 points better than an average team. Doing this for all teams, we can produce an opponent-adjusted leaderboard that should provide a better answer to the question of which defense has reigned supreme in the NFL so far this season.

    2019 EPA Allowed Per 60 Plays Leaders
    Adjusted for Opponent

    TeamEPA Allowed Per 60 PlaysOpponent Avg EPA Per 60 PlaysDiff
    49ers-19.8-1.8-18.0
    Patriots-22.2-5.4-16.8
    Panthers-5.43.6-9.0
    Titans-6.01.8-7.8
    Steelers-4.23.0-7.2

    Three of the top five teams remain the same, but there is a new leader—the San Francisco 49ers. After adjusting for the teams they’ve played, the 49ers have actually stifled their opponents more so than the Patriots, despite trailing behind them in the raw numbers (albeit slightly). The Patriots are a close second, so it’d be improper to say their defense hasn’t been great. However, it’s clear that the two teams comprise a top-two rather than the Patriots sitting alone at the top.

    For more advanced NFL stats, visit the SIS DataHub and for more information about Sports Info Solutions, visit our website.