By MARK SIMON

Friday marks the 10^th anniversary of Roy Halladay’s perfect game for the Phillies against the Marlins. It was the first of two no-hitters that he would pitch that season, the other coming in the NLDS against the Reds. These were the signature starts of Halladay’s Hall of Fame career.

Some of the recent news on Halladay and his tragic death in a plane crash has been rather unpleasant. We’re not here to focus on that. We wanted to relive the perfect game, which you can watch at this link. We’ll enhance it with some of the data we collected that night.

Prelude

Halladay had gotten beaten up by the Red Sox in his last start, allowing seven runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched. But even with that, Halladay had been great through his first 10 starts of the season, pitching to a 2.22 ERA.

Nonetheless, it was noted during the broadcast that he had been working on some issues (later revealed by pitching coach Rich Dubee to be related to the first step in his delivery).

After all, the best pitchers tend to be perfectionists.

The cutter

Halladay threw 19 pitches, 11 for strikes in the first inning, the inning in which he looked least comfortable on an 85-degree Miami night (we might surmise he was still getting acclimated to his mechanical adjustments). He didn’t know it at the time, but he’d only get one run to work with, so he had to be on his game.

The Marlins started a good lineup that day. No. 3 hitter Hanley Ramirez was hitting over .300, as was No. 6 hitter Cody Ross. Ramirez (4-for-8) and Dan Uggla (4-for-7) each had prior success against Halladay in small samples.

Halladay’s changeup didn’t look great. He threw four in the first inning and got only one strike. His fastball was a little off too – only three strikes on seven pitches.

One pitch was perfect: His cutter. Five pitches, five strikes.

This pitch, whose grip was taught to him by its master, Mariano Rivera, was the biggest key to the perfect game.

He threw 27-of-34 cutters for strikes (79%). He netted only one missed swing, but 11 of the 18 takes against it were called strikes (more on that in a moment). The pitch got him 11 outs (the most of any of his pitch types that night), including five punch-outs, and yielded no baserunners.

The Man in Blue

After the game, Halladay credited catcher Carlos Ruiz for being integral to the result, saying he put his trust in every sign Ruiz flashed. But the path to a perfect game doesn’t just require a pitcher and catcher to be in sync. The pitcher also needs to be in sync with the home plate umpire, knowing what the man in blue will call and what he won’t.

This was Halladay’s lucky day.

You know how sometimes we’ll say of someone “That person just gets me.”

If you look at the numbers, it’s fair to say that Roy Halladay got Mike DiMuro. For his career, Halladay had a 2.17 ERA and four complete games in seven starts with DiMuro behind the plate.

The last three were a three-hit shutout of the Red Sox in 2009, the perfect game against the Marlins, and a 14-strikeout 8 2/3 inning gem against the Padres in 2011.

Halladay got 26 called strikes in this game and consistently worked the edges of the zone.

They were perfect pitches because the hitter’s instincts made them think ‘ball’ when the pitch was repeatedly called a strike. Credit Halladay for making the most of this aspect of the game. His location was just about perfect. He did this with Carlos Ruiz catching. Though Phillies pitchers raved about Ruiz’s ability to call a game, pitch framing was never a strength of his. In fact, from 2010 to 2011, Ruiz ranked tied for third-worst in our framing metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved.

The tone was set with the game’s first batter, Chris Coghlan. Halladay dotted the outside corner for a strike with his first pitch, then threw one to nearly the same spot on a 3-2 count. Ruiz made it look like it caught a little more plate than it did. DiMuro rung Coghlan up for the first of Halladay’s 11 strikeouts.

“I’m not a guy who really argues calls,” Coghlan said (Miami Herald). “I thought it was close – a ball – but obviously it was a strike to the umpire and that’s all that matters.”

The pitch had a 90% strike probability based on its horizontal and vertical location, the count, and how far the catcher had to move his target horizontally to catch the ball.

Coghlan had a better case on the 2-2 pitch he took for strike three and the 3-2 pitch that Hanley Ramirez took for strike three in the seventh inning. They were thrown to nearly the same spot and had the same strike probability, 22%.

Were they strikes? Well, they had a lot of tail on them. It’s a tough call for any umpire. Most umpires are reluctant to call strike three. DiMuro did it six times in this game. Makes sense given that by our tracking, he called extra strikes at the seventh-highest rate of any umpire in the major leagues in 2010 (2.4 per 150 pitches).

And as Coghlan says, it only matters how the umpire saw it.

Challenging Himself

Halladay danced a fine line in this game, even with a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate. He ran a three-ball count to seven batters. They saw a combined 11 pitches in which they needed one ball for a walk.

MLB pitchers retired 43% of hitters in plate appearances ending with a three-ball count.

Halladay retired 100%, 7-of-7, three with the fastball, three with the cutter, and one with the curve.

Batter	Count	Result
1st- Chris Coghlan	3-2	Strikeout Looking
1st- Hanley Ramirez	3-2	Ground out to second base
2nd- Jorge Cantu	3-2	Strikeout Swinging
5th- Dan Uggla	3-2	Flyout to center field
6th- Cameron Maybin	3-1	Ground out to shortstop
7th- Gaby Sanchez	3-2	Lineout to left field
7th- Hanley Ramirez	3-2	Strikeout Looking

Help in the Field

The Phillies were without both shortstop Jimmy Rollins and third baseman Placido Polanco, who were both out with injuries. They started Wilson Valdez at shortstop and Juan Castro at third base.

Valdez made one nice play, on a ground ball hit on a 3-1 pitch by speedy Cameron Maybin in the sixth inning. The out probability on the ball hit in the 5-6 hole was 73%. It was a tough play but one made well more often than not.

Castro’s presence was more prominent because he turned in the game’s best defensive play. In the eighth inning, Jorge Cantu hit a rocket in the shortstop-third base hole that had a 41% out probability. Castro made the play on one hop. If he didn’t field it, the ball would have been a base hit. But Castro made the play and threw Cantu out.

“He hit it pretty good,” Castro told reporters afterwards. “I was thinking to myself, ‘Every little ball that’s hit here, I have to dive for it. I was fortunate to get some glove and catch the ball.”

Of the 16 balls hit by the Marlins, these were the only two with less than a 90% out probability.

Castro also handled the final out of the game, going two steps to his left to field Ronny Paulino’s ground ball, and threw Paulino out easily.

Defense at third base was not Castro’s forte. He only played eleven games at third base that season and finished with -11 Defensive Runs Saved there for his career. Valdez was a better fit for his position. He saved 10 runs in his time as a part-time shortstop.

But what matters is that in this game, they were perfect.

Remembered Forever

Halladay would go on to win the NL Cy Young that season, leading the league in wins (21), innings pitched (250 2/3), complete games (9), and shutouts (4). It was one of a run of six straight seasons in which he made at least 30 starts every year and pitched to a 2.86 ERA.

At his Hall of Fame induction in 2019, Halladay’s wife, Brandy, gave a touching speech. We’ll let her words close this piece out.

“I think that Roy would want everyone to know that people are not perfect. We are all imperfect and flawed in one way or another. We all struggle, but with hard work, humility and dedication, imperfect people still can have perfect moments. Roy was blessed in his life and career to have some perfect moments. But I believe that they were only possible because of the man he strived to be, the teammate that he was, and the people he was so blessed to be on the field with.”

BY MARK SIMON

It would be super cool if we could use modern technology to look back at dominant pitching performances. We could further dissect Sandy Koufax’s perfect game in 1965 or something more recent, like Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout game in 1998.

But the kind of pitching and defensive data that we had available then pales to what we have now. Within our company in particular, we can tell you how often batted balls are turned into outs and how effective a pitcher’s pitches are dating to 2004 for just about any moment in any game.

And we can use a stat like Game Score, which measures starting pitcher effectiveness on a scale that usually ranges from 0 to 100 to pick the game we want to look at. For those unfamiliar, Game Score increases with each out and strikeout recorded and each inning completed, and decreases with walks, hits, and runs allowed.

The best-pitched game of the 21st century falls within our game-tracking window – Max Scherzer’s 17-strikeout, no-walk no-hitter for the Nationals against the Mets on October 3, 2015. That is one of the rare games that exceeded a 100 Game Score, coming in at 104.

Extenuating Circumstances

In reviewing the game, it’s important to note some of the extenuating circumstances, for one the weather, which Baseball-Reference lists at 54 degrees with 28 mile-per-hour winds blowing in from center field. A family member was at this game and texted during it that it was “sooooo cold.”

Those sorts of conditions don’t present themselves often. This is the only one with that wind condition and direction in the last eight years. It’s one of three such games this century (one of which was on a night in Texas with temperatures in the 90s).

Another thing to consider was that this was the second game of a doubleheader on the final Saturday of the season. The Mets had small stakes to play for–they were competing with the Dodgers for home-field advantage in their LDS matchup, but the lineup they put out didn’t show a sense of urgency in that regard.

Yoenis Céspedes, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and David Wright were not in the starting lineup, though all but Wright would appear in the game.

The No. 2 hitter, Ruben Tejada, and cleanup batter, Michael Cuddyer, had OPS’ around .700. The No. 6 through 8 hitters, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Kevin Plawecki, and Dilson Herrera, all were below .700. The Mets were willing to put this lineup out against a pitcher who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last start against the Reds.

But ridiculous dominance is still ridiculous dominance, regardless of weather or opposing lineup.

No Time At All

I did something rudimentary just out of curiosity, timing how long each inning lasted. If you have a short-attention span, Scherzer’s pitching performance is perfect for you. The nine Mets’ half-innings lasted a combined 37 minutes and 7 seconds from first pitch to last out. That’s a little over four minutes per half-inning.

Scherzer worked quickly throughout. He completed two half-innings in just under three minutes, with lengths not much longer than the two-minute commercial breaks between innings. Scherzer opened the game by striking out Curtis Granderson in 46 seconds. He ended it by getting Granderson to pop out in a five-pitch at-bat lasting one minute, 22 seconds.

No inning went longer than the sixth (which took 6 minutes, 6 seconds), and that one would have been shorter had Nationals first baseman Clint Robinson been able to scoop third baseman Yunel Escobar’s throw. The error for Escobar on Kevin Plawecki’s ground ball resulted in the Mets’ only baserunner of the game.

1st inning	4 minutes, 16 seconds
2nd inning	2 minutes, 26 seconds
3rd inning	4 minutes, 17 seconds
4th inning	3 minutes, 10 seconds
5th inning	2 minutes, 38 seconds
6th inning	6 minutes, 6 seconds
7th inning	4 minutes, 6 seconds
8th inning	4 minutes, 24 seconds
9th inning	5 minutes, 44 seconds

Dominance

Scherzer began the game with a 92 mph fastball, but the pitch popped repeatedly after that. His fastball averaged about 94 mph in the opening inning, but nearly 96 in the ninth.

For the game, the Mets swung at 40 Scherzer fastballs and missed 19. The 48% miss rate was the second-highest of his career (minimum 30 swings against it), trailing only a 2013 start against the Mets (19-of-39). With two strikes, Mets hitters swung 18 times at his fastball and missed on 12. From the looks of it on the game broadcast, most of those swings were very late.

Scherzer also had the best version of his slider, which completely threw off the Mets’ hitters’ timing. He threw 18 of 23 for strikes, resulting in eight outs, including seven against right-handed hitters. It was his primary out pitch against righties (he got the other five outs against them with fastballs).

A little help

Scherzer went to three balls on only two batters. He got Michael Conforto to ground out on a 3-1 pitch in the first inning and he struck out Kevin Plawecki on a 3-2 pitch in the third. Conforto was ahead 3-0, but Scherzer got a generous strike call from home plate umpire Tony Randazzo on an inside pitch with a 33% strike probability.

Plawecki’s at-bat was an odd one. On 2-2, he took a pitch that appeared to nick the outside corner. Plawecki started to walk back to the dugout. Scherzer began his usual stomp around the mound.

By our calculations, the pitch had an 83% strike probability, but Randazzo called it a ball. This was the only pitch with a greater than 50% strike probability that Randazzo called a ball the entire game.

Then on 3-2, Plawecki took a pitch that was further off the plate, one with a 25% strike probability, but Randazzo rang up strike three. That was one of five instances in which Randazzo called a pitch a strike that had less than a 50% strike probability.

It was bad enough for the Mets that Scherzer was at the top of his game on a cold, windy night with a depleted lineup against him. The home plate umpire wasn’t doing them many favors.

Easy peasy

The Mets put 11 balls into play against Scherzer, most of them meekly.

Their hitters reached base once, as previously mentioned when Escobar’s throw to first was not scooped by Robinson, allowing Plawecki to reach.

Escobar got the error, which resulted in a -.85 plays saved demerit on his register. In other words, a ground ball hit at that speed by a right-handed batter in Plawecki’s speed group (slow) where Escobar fielded it is turned into an out by the third baseman 85% of the time. This turned out to be one of the other 15%.

We should also point out that scooping throws was not Robinson’s forte. He had 9 scooped throws and 5 mishandled scoops for the season, an effectiveness rate of 64%. That ranked third-lowest in the majors (minimum 10 scoop opportunities).

Simply put: You can make a reasonable case that Scherzer should have pitched a perfect game.

We say that because on the 10 balls in play on which the Nationals recorded outs, there weren’t any tough plays from a statistical perspective.

Result	Probability Play Made
1st– Conforto groundout to 2B	93%
2nd– Cuddyer flyout to LF	77%
2nd– Johnson groundout to 1B	93%
3rd– Harvey groundout to 1B	100%
4th– Granderson lineout to 2B	83%
4th– Conforto flyout to LF	97%
5th– Cuddyer groundout to 2B	97%
6th– Herrera popout to 2B	100%
6th– Murphy groundout to 2B	70%
9th– Granderson popout to 3B	100%

The closest the Mets came to a hit was when Murphy hit a ground ball to the left of Dan Uggla. Uggla corralled it and, with the option of retiring Murphy at first or getting a force play at second, got the force out at second place. That play had a 70% chance of being made given the aforementioned parameters. And it was.

Scherzer struck out the next nine hitters after that. He wasn’t taking any more chances with his defense, save for Granderson’s game-ending weak popup, which had a 100% out probability.

Respect

Scherzer’s 17 strikeouts matched the most in a no-hitter (Nolan Ryan also had 17 in one of his 7 no-nos). The 104 Game Score is actually the second-best in a start of 9 innings or fewer, trailing only Wood’s 20-strikeout 105.

The opposition paid its respects to Scherzer’s performance. Mets manager Terry Collins said it succinctly: “He was great. We were bad.”

Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen called it “one of the greatest pitching performance in major league history.”

Seems like a fair claim to us.