On this edition of the Off The Charts Football Podcast, Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) and Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) are joined by N. Jeremi Duru (@NJeremiDuru), an author and law professor who is an expert on the NFL and its head coach hiring practices as relates to People of Color. The group discusses how the NFL is doing in that regard (2:56), how owners often rush head coach hiring decisions and don’t know what they’re looking for (4:42), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a model for putting together a coaching room (9:31), and the idea of a hiring moratorium during the playoffs (14:24). With this being Black History Month, they also touch on the importance of knowing who Fritz Pollard is (21:04).
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) break down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 31-9 beatdown of the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. The episode opens with a throwback to last year’s prediction by FO readers that the Bucs would be the surprise team of the 2020 season (0:48) before moving on to why we shouldn’t be surprised that the Bucs won and dominated up front (2:35), the Mahomes-Brady matchup (9:50), and Brady’s legacy after winning his 7th Super Bowl at age 43 (13:25).
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) welcome Trey Wingo (@wingoz) to the show to discuss numerous NFL-related topics.
The group opens with a talk about last week’s conference championship games (1:02) before transitioning to a look at the Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers (10:56). The episode closes with discussion about which quarterbacks could be on the move (19:20), how Trey watches the game differently after spending time with both former players and Stats & Info people (25:42), and his favorite unheralded Super Bowl performer (27:22).
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) look at the two games for the NFL Conference Championship Round this weekend. Matt and Aaron go deep with breakdowns of the NFC Championship game between the Buccaneers and Packers (3:22) and the AFC title game between the Bills and Chiefs (11:21).
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) look at the four games for the NFL Divisional Round this weekend. The show opens with a brief discussion about the use of analytics during broadcasts (1:02) before moving on to preview this weekend’s matchups: Rams-Packers (3:12), Ravens-Bills (9:30), Browns-Chiefs (15:08), and Buccaneers-Saints (21:12).
There was some significant movement in our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings as the 2020 NFL regular season concluded.
One product of our system is that inactivity hurts. As such, Aaron Rodgers did enough in his Week 17 showing to edge past Patrick Mahomes into the No. 1 spot entering the playoffs. Rodgers had closed the gap considerably in Week 16, as Mahomes had his worst game by Points Above Average (PAA) in the last three seasons in the Chiefs’ win over the Falcons.
Rodgers has been what most quarterbacks have not been–ultra-consistent. He put up 10 straight games with a positive PAA, with his only negative being a -0.3 in Week 17 (in which three dropped interceptions served to counteract his stellar base-level stat line of 19-for-24 with four touchdowns).
Given that our tracking continues into the postseason, perhaps the debate over the World’s No. 1 Quarterback will get settled in the Super Bowl.
The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The
World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.
The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.
Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.
The Mahomes-Rodgers flip wasn’t the only notable change in our rankings. Take a look at our new Top 10:
1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Tom Brady
4. Deshaun Watson
5. Josh Allen
6. Russell Wilson
7. Derek Carr
8. Lamar Jackson
9. Ryan Tannehill
10. Kirk Cousins
Apparently Tom Brady still had something left. After throwing two interceptions in Week 1, Brady ranked 14th, and even after recovering from that, he was still in the No. 9 slot after throwing three interceptions against the Saints in Week 9.
But Brady got hot at the right time. He had his best and third-best games in the last three weeks of the season. He’s the leader among quarterbacks in PAA since Week 10, nearly nine points ahead of the closest quarterback, Lamar Jackson.
Much of Brady’s value since Week 10 has stemmed from late-down success. He has the most Points Earned of any quarterback on third and fourth downs in that span, due in part to his six third-down touchdowns, second-most of any quarterback. He was also among the best passers in terms of air yards per completion during that run.
Josh Allen’s ascent to No. 5 is also noteworthy. His career-best game by PAA came in Week 16 against the Patriots, one week after he had a big game against the Broncos. After starting the season as the No. 24 ranked quarterback, Allen moved into the top 10 after the Bills’ win in Week 4 against the Raiders. His only significant step back came when he threw two interceptions in a loss to the Cardinals, which dropped him from No. 7 to No. 10. But since Week 13, he’s had the fourth-highest PAA total of any quarterback. His leap to elite status will be tested this postseason.
Lamar Jackson took a circuitous route to his current No. 8 ranking. He started the season as the No. 6 quarterback, bumped to No. 4 after a big game against the Browns in Week 1. Then came a decrescendo including two of the worst games of the season, when he scored -16 PAA against the Bengals and -14 PAA against the Steelers. Jackson slipped all the way to No. 18 before making a steady climb. He’s held the No. 8 spot the last two weeks.
Jackson has been better with both the run and the pass during the Ravens’ five-game winning streak.
First 10 Games
Last 5 Games
Comp Pct
63%
67%
TD-Int
15-6
11-3
Sacks
24
5
Rush Yards Per Game
57.5
86
The most prominent drop in the rankings is Russell Wilson’s.
Wilson is often viewed as a Top-3 quarterback but has now slipped to No. 6 overall.
He started the season with seven straight games with a non-negative PAA. But he had five negative-PAA games in his last nine games. He finished the regular season with 13 interceptions and also hurt his rating with a pair of multi-fumble games in those last nine contests.
Here are the full rankings through the final week of the regular season.
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) look at the most important games for Wild Card weekend. Matt and Aaron go in chronological order examining the six games of this first round of the postseason: Colts-Bills (1:11), Rams-Seahawks (8:54), Buccaneers-Washington (12:51), Ravens-Titans (17:56), Bears-Saints (23:40), and Browns-Steelers (26:42).
Completing a deep pass can be a vital turning point in a game. In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season, the Titans needed to secure a victory against the Texans. They were tied with less than a minute left and it looked like the game would go into overtime. Then Ryan Tannehill completed a deep pass to A.J. Brown that allowed the team to kick a field goal and win the game.
That wasn’t the only such meaningful deep throw of 2020. There were plenty of them.
Who were the best NFL QBs at completing the long pass this season? This article will take a look at different stats ranging from usage to overall effectiveness.
For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated. Minimum of 25 deep pass attempts.
Most Deep Balls Attempted
A quarterback who is known as a risk taker will always keep a defense honest. That defense has to plan around the deep shots, leaving safeties back and loading the box at a lower rate.
Which quarterbacks have thrown deep the most so far in the 2020 season? The answer is in the table below:
Quarterback
Number of Throws
Tom Brady
83
Matt Ryan
75
Aaron Rodgers
72
Patrick Mahomes
66
Josh Allen
65
Ben Roethlisberger
65
Drew Lock
64
Matthew Stafford
62
Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady ends the year as the league-leader in deep passes attempted. With a head coach in Bruce Arians who loves to take deep shots, and a supporting cast of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown, this does not come as a surprise.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ended the 2020 season with an NFL-high 626 pass attempts and he likes to throw long, so it’s not shocking that he’s second on this list. Perhaps a surprise in the top eight is Drew Lock of the Broncos, a second-year signal caller, though he was known for his arm in college. While he threw the ball deep often, his on-target percentage of 50% was below league-average (52%) and ranked tied for 19th among our 32 qualifiers.
Highest On-Target Percentage
It is one thing to attempt deep passes; it is a whole other thing to be accurate on them. On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride.
Below is a table of the season leaders in On-Target Percentage on deep balls for 2020.
Quarterback
On-Target %
Cam Newton
70%
Aaron Rodgers
64%
Kirk Cousins
63%
Baker Mayfield
63%
Derek Carr
63%
Kyler Murray
61%
Daniel Jones
61%
League average: 52%
Patriots quarterback Cam Newton tops this list partly because of where we set our qualifier (25 attempts). He had 28 deep attempts in 2020 and had an on-target percentage of 70% on them. Among the more prolific deep throwers, it was tight at the top of the leaderboard. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers displayed MVP-like accuracy, while Baker Mayfield of the Browns and Kyler Murray of the Cardinals showed us that their future in this area looks bright.
For those wondering, Mitchell Trubisky (32%), Joe Flacco (39%) and Carson Wentz (39%) were the bottom three quarterbacks on the list. And for those looking for how each player’s completion percentage compares, check out this tweet from Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis.
Highest Touchdown Percentage
Touchdown percentage not only can tell you how successful a QB is at throwing deep, but also how successful their receivers are at finishing the explosive plays by scoring.
These QBs threw a touchdown at the highest rate when throwing the ball 20 or more yards downfield:
Quarterback
TD% (TDs Thrown)
Patrick Mahomes
18% (12)
Aaron Rodgers
17% (12)
Derek Carr
16% (9)
Deshaun Watson
16% (9)
Dak Prescott
15% (4)
Russell Wilson
15% (9)
Justin Herbert
15% (9)
League average: 10%
Having Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to has helped Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes top the NFL in TD percentage on long passes. Rodgers makes another appearance on a deep ball leaderboard, and he and Mahomes share the distinction of their receivers being in the top 10 in the league in dropped deep passes, so there were even more touchdowns left on the table.
A surprising name on this list is Dak Prescott, who missed most of the season due to injury but was incredibly prolific in the early going, leveraging his excellent receiver group and terrible defense.
Overall
Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as shared by Alex Vigderman:
The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.
A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped his team win the most when throwing the deep ball.
Of the lists we’ve shown, this is the one that best reflects overall value on long passes. Check out the league leaders below:
Rank
Player
Attempts
Points Earned
1
Aaron Rodgers
72
46.5
2
Tom Brady
83
28.9
3
Derek Carr
56
28.4
4
Deshaun Watson
58
26.2
5
Matthew Stafford
62
20.6
6
Kyler Murray
58
20
7
Daniel Jones
39
19.9
8
Russell Wilson
60
18.9
9
Patrick Mahomes
66
18.8
10
Justin Herbert
61
13.5
If the MVP race was determined by the deep ball, Rodgers would probably win it. He has been lights-out this season when throwing deep, making every leaderboard in this article.
Who do you think will make this list next year? Any under-the-radar names come to mind? Check back next season to find out!
Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) take an in-depth look at the final week of the NFL regular season.
Games they preview on a jam-packed show:
Steelers–Browns (8:10)
Titans-Texans (10:00)
Bengals-Ravens (11:00)
Colts –Jaguars (15:41)
Cowboys-Giants (19:03)
Washington-Eagles (20:44)
Packers-Bears (24:45)
Cardinals-Rams (27:17)
Matt then talks to Alex Vigderman (@VigManonCampus) about changes made to our flagship stat, Total Points, as relates to how it evaluates running backs.
Completing a deep pass is great for any offense. Not only do these plays flip the field, but they also increase the likelihood of scoring during the drive. Chunk plays lead to momentum shifts, and long touchdowns can often be the turning point a team needs to complete a comeback. This article will look to find out which college QBs were the best at throwing downfield during the 2020 season. Leaderboards found here will include draft-eligible players as well as underclassmen.
For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated. Minimum 30 deep attempts unless otherwise noted (62 QBs).Only regular season data is included in this article.
Most Deep Balls Attempted
Finding a QB that can make all the necessary throws can be hard for a college organization; but once they find one, it opens up so much for a football team’s offense. Not only does it allow for more deep passes, but it also allows for more explosive plays and chunk gains. These QBs are the leaders in deep throw attempts for the 2020 season:
Quarterback
School
Number of Throws
Dillon Gabriel
UCF
69
D’Eriq King
Miami FL
63
Layne Hatcher
Arkansas State
62
Kyle Trask
Florida
60
Sam Ehlinger
Texas
59
Levi Lewis
Louisiana Lafayette
58
Carson Strong
Nevada
56
Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh
56
Dillon Gabriel leads the list of most deep pass attempts. This isn’t surprising given UCF’s high-powered offense and quick playing style. Florida’s Kyle Trask is near the top and worth noting. His most successful week throwing deep was against Alabama, where he completed 6 deep passes for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns. Trask is a Heisman finalist and has a chance to be the first Gator Heisman winner since Tim Tebow won the award in 2007.
Highest On-Target Percentage
On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride. The quarterbacks that make up this list were the most accurate on throws downfield, giving their guys the best chance at coming down with the ball. Here are the most accurate college quarterbacks on deep passes:
Quarterback
School
On-Target % (Attempts)
Zach Wilson
BYU
72% (50)
Trevor Lawrence
Clemson
70% (40)
Spencer Rattler
Oklahoma
69% (49)
Kyle Trask
Florida
68% (60)
Mac Jones
Alabama
67% (47)
Dillon Gabriel
UCF
66% (69)
Jake Haener
Fresno State
64% (34)
A lot of big names make this list, with Zach Wilson leading the group with a 74% on-target throw rate. Trevor Lawrence is the potential No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He has been incredible throwing the deep ball, returning an accurate pass on 28 of 40 long balls. He has shown massive improvement in this aspect of his game. Last season, Lawrence’s on-target percentage on deep balls was 48%, 22 percentage points lower than this year’s rate.
Highest Touchdown Percentage
Touchdown percentage tells you the rate in which a quarterback threw for a touchdown on deep passes. This can show you not only the accuracy of these throws, but also which receiving cores are finishing these plays with scores. Here are the QBs with the highest touchdown percentages for the 2020 season:
Quarterback
School
TD% (TDs Thrown)
Mac Jones
Alabama
30% (14)
Malik Willis
Liberty
21% (9)
Spencer Rattler
Oklahoma
20% (10)
Dillon Gabriel
UCF
20% (14)
Carson Strong
Nevada
19% (11)
Grant Wells
Marshall
19% (9)
Kedon Slovis
USC
18% (7)
Mac Jones has dominated this season, including on deep passes, where he has a 30% touchdown rate. For comparison, last year’s No. 1 pick, Joe Burrow, threw a touchdown on 28% of his deep passes during his historic senior season.
Highest IQR
IQR is SIS’ proprietary stat for quarterbacks. It works like QB Rating but factors out things outside of the QB’s control. This includes dropped passes (which they receive positive credit for) and dropped interceptions (which they receive negative credit for).
Here are the QBs with the highest IQR on deep passes for the 2020 season:
Quarterback
School
IQR
Zach Wilson
BYU
133.8
Spencer Rattler
Oklahoma
126.1
Dillon Gabriel
UCF
125.6
Kyle Trask
Florida
122.9
Carson Strong
Nevada
122.0
Devin Leary
NC State
121.5
Jake Haener
Fresno State
116.5
A lot of names on this list also made other lists. This makes sense given the nature of IQR. Zach Wilson has had a meteoric rise this year in the eyes of NFL scouts. His efficiency on the deep ball has put his hat in the ring with the other first round QBs. Trask is another name to keep in mind, as he joins Wilson in that same ring as a potential first-round draft pick.
Conclusion
Last season, Burrow wowed the country with his historic rise. The deep ball factored into his success, as he led college quarterbacks in deep ball touchdown percentage, and was top 5 in on-target percentage, lowest interception percentage, yards, and touchdowns. If the deep ball is any indication, this year’s draft class has considerable talent at the QB position. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Kyle Trask all excelled throwing deep but Mac Jones may be the best deep passer in this class.
