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  • Assessing The NFL Awards Field Using Total Points And IQR

    Assessing The NFL Awards Field Using Total Points And IQR

    Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire

    We are (unofficially) halfway through the 2024 NFL season, so why not break down the current state of the awards markets. There are a lot of usual suspects at the top of the odds boards, like Josh Allen for MVP and T.J. Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, and some young stars at the top of the Rookie of the Year markets like Jayden Daniels and Jared Verse.

    Is a player required to reach a threshold of play at this point in the season to have a chance at winning their respective award at season’s end? Are the favorites the locked-in winners through only 8 weeks? Each award is different and can vary on a multitude of factors that are reflected on the voters ballot, such as current production and prior prestige.

    For our attempt, we dive into the world of Total Points and look at the ranking of past winners 8 weeks through the year to box in the set of candidates for 2024. The rank reflects where a player stood in their given award pool through 8 weeks of the regular season. For example, the OPOY rankings reflect an offensive player’s ranking without quarterbacks, as the award usually goes to the most productive non-quarterback (QB winners will be addressed). This attempt tries to answer if there is a certain production threshold required at this point to even have a chance at winning.

    The awards covered are MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Comeback Player of the Year has an additional sentimental layer factored in and cannot be assessed strictly by production.

    Without further ado, let’s dive in!

    Offensive Player of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank
    2016 Matt Ryan QB 3*
    2017 Todd Gurley RB 22
    2018 Patrick Mahomes QB 1*
    2019 Michael Thomas WR 16
    2020 Derrick Henry RB 3
    2021 Cooper Kupp WR 1
    2022 Justin Jefferson WR 7
    2023 Christian McCaffrey RB 11

    * Overall Offensive Total Points Ranking

    Recent history suggests that the OPOY winner can come from as far down as 16 with the exception of Todd Gurley in 2017, where he made the climb from 22nd to 1st! Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes both won while putting up historic offensive numbers at quarterback.

    Players that win this award push historic production numbers at their positions, like Mahomes breaking the passing yards record, Jefferson becoming the youngest player to lead the league in receptions and receiving yards, and Henry eclipsing 2,000 rushing yards in 2020.

    Somehow, someway, Derrick Henry is pushing historic numbers in his age 30 season with 946 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, both league bests from a rushing standpoint. This has propelled him to the top of the odds board as a +125 favorite.

    From a Total Points perspective, Henry is 2nd among offensive players, trailing James Conner (+40000!) Conner is Top 10 in rushing yards and has scored 4 touchdowns, but his league leading 36 broken and missed tackles propel him to the top of the Total Points leaderboard as he controls the means of production. 

    George Kittle, Najee Harris (2nd in broken and missed tackles himself), and the injured Chris Godwin round out the Top 5.

    Offensive Rookie of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank
    2016 Dak Prescott QB 1
    2017 Alvin Kamara RB 6
    2018 Saquon Barkley RB 1
    2019 Kyler Murray QB 2
    2020 Justin Herbert QB 2
    2021 Ja’Marr Chase WR 3
    2022 Garrett Wilson WR 8
    2023 C.J. Stroud QB 1

    There is a pretty stark trend for OROY. By this point in the season, a player has to be in the Top 10 and most likely in the Top 3. And given the current OROY Total Points leaderboard, there is a good chance this happens.

    Bo Nix has the top spot with 65 Total Points, followed by Jayden Daniels with 59 and Caleb Williams with 26. This may come as a surprise given Daniels is the clear cut favorite in the market at -400, followed by Williams at +1000 and Nix at +1400.

    From a counting stats perspective, Nix trails Daniels by 206 yards, but bests him by one passing touchdown. On the ground, Daniels has Nix beat by 191 yards and both have four rushing scores.

    The first non-QB on the list is Brock Bowers at 5th with 16 Total Points. Bowers leads the league (not just rookies) with 52 receptions and is just outside the Top 10 with 535 receiving yards.

    Defensive Player of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Included)

    		 Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Not Included)
    2016 Khalil Mack DE 113 51
    2017 Aaron Donald DT 53 22
    2018 Aaron Donald DT 2 1
    2019 Stephon Gilmore CB 1 NA
    2020 Aaron Donald DT 14 3
    2021 T.J. Watt OLB 24 9
    2022 Nick Bosa DE 34 14
    2023 Myles Garrett DE 7 3

    The Defensive Player of the Year award is a bit tricky to decipher because secondary players can accumulate Total Points at a much higher clip than any of the other positions. This is due to big plays that can happen on 1-on-1 opportunities like interceptions, touchdowns, etc. 

    When looking at the past few seasons, it is apparent that the winner is likely to be a pass rusher with prominent regard from prior performance. All of the players on the list were an All-Pro at one point prior to them winning the award.

    The Top 2 in Total Points on the non-secondary list are Fred Warner and T.J. Watt, respectively. Ironically, Warner has accumulated the majority of his Total Points on pass defense with 26 out of his 36 and leads all linebackers with 2 INTs. Watt is T-7th with 6.5 sacks and is Top 10 in both Pass Rush Total Points and Run Defense Total Points. 

    If Warner doesn’t keep up the Pass Coverage production and Watt continues the pace in both the Pass Rush and in Run Defense, Watt will take control of the top spot soon.

    Defensive Rookie of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Included)

    		 Total Points Rank (Secondary Not Included)
    2016 Joey Bosa DE 29 12
    2017 Marshon Lattimore CB 1 NA
    2018 Shaq Leonard LB 2 1
    2019 Nick Bosa DE 2 2
    2020 Chase Young DE 12 3
    2021 Micah Parsons DE 3 1
    2022 Sauce Gardner CB 1 NA
    2023 Will Anderson Jr. DE 5 2

    This one fits the best into a clear narrative. Other than 2016, all of the winners were either in the Top 3 in non-secondary Total Points rankings or were at the top of secondary rankings halfway through the year. 

    Projecting that to this season, we see a Top 3 of Jared Verse with 20 Total Points, Edgerrin Cooper with 12, and Laiatu Latu with 12. Verse is the odds on favorite to win at -120 with Latu at +600 next. Cooper is all the way down at +3000. Cooper is T-9th with 9 tackles for loss and is coming off his best game with 9 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and a forced fumble.

    Including secondary players, Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter are at the top of the leaderboard and both have been stalwarts in Houston’s secondary. Lassiter is leading the league in completion percentage allowed at 29%.

    MVP

    Year Player Total Points Rank  SIS Independent Quarterback Rating Rank
    2016 Matt Ryan 3 2
    2017 Tom Brady 1 4
    2018 Patrick Mahomes 1 2
    2019 Lamar Jackson 14 13
    2020 Aaron Rodgers 5 2
    2021 Aaron Rodgers 13 12
    2022 Patrick Mahomes 2 2
    2023 Lamar Jackson 3 3

    Only Lamar Jackson (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2021) were outside of the Top 10 at this point in the season when they won their MVP awards. All of the others were in the Top 5. Team success also plays a large role in this award, with all of the quarterbacks on the list except Matt Ryan leading their team to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

    In addition to Total Points, the last six winners of the MVP award went to the leader in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating at the end of the year and all but two (the same two above) were in the Top 4 through Week 8.

    Currently, Lamar is the Total Points leader with 92. The next closest is Joe Burrow with 69 followed by Nix, Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts to round out the Top 5. In IQR, Jackson once again has the lead at 121.8 followed by Josh Allen at 113.6. Sam Darnold, Burrow, and Jared Goff round out the Top 5.

    Josh Allen is the current favorite at +270, which makes sense from an IQR perspective. He does rank only 8th in Total Points and has some ground to make up on Jackson (+310) who is chasing his 3rd MVP and in the driver’s seat metrically.

    Conclusion

    Awards are difficult because the winners are determined by a person’s vote and not a machine, but there are metrics that certainly have high correlation when finding the winner. Total Points and IQR are good at this given we are looking for a range of players at this point in the season rather than pinpointing the winner. Only time will tell with over half of the season yet to go where the awards will land.

  • Analyzing NFL Win Totals with the SIS Prediction Model

    Analyzing NFL Win Totals with the SIS Prediction Model

    We’ve reached prediction season for the NFL. A big part of dissecting the upcoming season is analyzing the schedule and predicting which teams will overperform or underperform their expectations.

    Expectations these days come from the sportsbooks, especially through win totals. These markets have been posted and bettors have begun forming their stance on each individual team. The lines will move all offseason long, as more information and opinions will move the lines in one direction or another.

    At SIS, we have created a pre-game prediction model to predict the spreads, totals, team totals, and moneylines of each game using a multitude of data points that we collect. We also constructed the model to be able to run for the entire season, allowing us to run simulations on the season and create win total prices of our own. The model went 18-13-1 in over-under predictions on team’s preseason win totals last season.

    We have run our first simulation of the year and the Football R&D team selected their favorite wagering opportunities in the win total markets based on the model’s output. The three of us (Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver) each selected four hypothetical wagers we would make in a snake draft style on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.

    These are our model’s win total projections.

    Team DraftKings Win Total Model Projected Win Totals Difference
    Raiders 6.5 10.4 Over 3.9
    Saints 7.5 10.7 3.2
    Bears 8.5 10.7 2.2
    Lions 10.5 12.3 1.8
    Buccaneers 8.5 10.3 1.8
    Browns 8.5 9.8 1.3
    Packers 9.5 10.7 1.2
    Seahawks 7.5 8.7 1.2
    Jets 9.5 10.6 1.1
    Patriots 4.5 5.5 1
    Ravens 11.5 12.1 0.6
    Bills 10.5 11.1 0.6
    Giants 6.5 7.1 0.6
    Cowboys 10.5 11.1 0.6
    Rams 8.5 9 0.5
    Cardinals 6.5 6.9 0.4
    Bengals 10.5 10.9 0.4
    Texans 9.5 9.4 Under -0.1
    Panthers 5.5 5.2 -0.3
    Dolphins 9.5 9 -0.5
    Chiefs 11.5 10.9 -0.6
    Broncos 5.5 4.7 -0.8
    Steelers 8.5 7.4 -1.1
    Jaguars 8.5 7.4 -1.1
    Falcons 9.5 8.1 -1.4
    Chargers 8.5 6.9 -1.6
    49ers 11.5 9.8 -1.7
    Colts 8.5 6.1 -2.4
    Vikings 6.5 4 -2.5
    Titans 6.5 4 -2.5
    Commanders 6.5 3.2 -3.3
    Eagles 10.5 6.8 -3.7

    Model Overview (How did we get these numbers?)

    Our model utilizes 18 features that are a combination of game, team, and player level metrics. 

    Game level metrics include whether or not the game is in the postseason, weather predictions like wind speed and precipitation probability, and a home team indicator.

    Some of the team level metrics include weighted points for and points against averages, both offensive and defensive weighted penalty yards, and some possession metrics in the form of snaps per game or drive. Each of these metrics is computed for the team’s past 7 games, with the most recent weighted more heavily. 

    We use a weighted 16-game average with our Total Points for the player metrics. We calculate the average Total Points for each skill (Passer, Rusher, Pass Rush, etc.) for every player per snap, and then aggregate the projected values for each game to the team level using each player’s projected snap counts for the game.

    Then, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation to illustrate variance in player performance by simulating 1,000 games for each player. After each simulation, all of the metrics are incorporated into a Lasso regression model to predict the team’s point total. The distributions of the predictions are aggregated to an average and spread so that point estimates and alternate point estimates can be drawn from the distribution.

    Now that there are lines for each game, we can simulate 1,000 regular seasons based on the moneyline output and take the average win total for each team.

    Analyzing the Overs

    The Off The Charts podcast crew of Bryce Rossler, Alex Vigderman and I went through the over-under possibilities here and drafted the ones they felt best about (Listen to the episode here).

    They went with the Raiders, Saints, Browns, Packers, Patriots and Cardinals on the ‘over’ side (listen to the episode to find out who took whom and their reasoning).

    The model picked the Raiders and Saints to go over their Vegas win total by the widest margin. The Raiders are projected to have 10.4 wins and the Saints 10.7, good for 3.9 and 3.2 wins of value, respectively. 

    Both teams finished last season strong in regards to the various model inputs. The Saints are No. 1 in our Points For weighted average and No. 5 in Points Against weighted average, which goes back to the last 7 games played of last season. Additionally, Derek Carr ranks 2nd in the Passer Points per play weighted average coming into this season (5th if you include projected snap count).

    The Raiders added Gardner Minshew, who is 8th in Passer Points per play weighted average and will battle Aidan O’Connell for the starting QB spot. They also come into the season 9th and 6th in the Points For and Points Against weighted averages, respectively.

    The Browns and Packers come in at 1.3 and 1.2 wins above their current win totals of 8.5 and 9.5. The Browns will welcome back Deshaun Watson after catching lightning in a bottle with Joe Flacco at the end of last season. The Packers also finished strong, pushing the 49ers to the brink in the divisional round and are ranked second in recency-weighted Points For. 

    Our crew drafted both the Patriots and Cardinals even though the model total only slightly exceeded the DraftKings number. The reason: quarterback optimism.

    Unders

    After a total collapse at the end of last season, the Eagles come in with the most value towards the under, as they are projected to win only 6.8 games compared to a win total of 10.5. They rank 26th and 30th in recent points for and points against. 

    Bryce took both the Eagles and the Vikings, who are projected for 4 wins in our model when DraftKings has the over-under set at 6.5. Bryce doesn’t have faith in J.J. McCarthy and believes it will take him more than a season to get to a good place.

    “This is a player who doesn’t have a lot of reps at game speed,” Bryce said. “I know he started several years at Michigan but he’s not passing a lot in that offense. I think Year 1 in the NFL is going to be very rough. I know they feel like as an organization that they’ve found their quarterback. But I don’t see it in Year 1.”

    The Vikings defense also ranked in the bottom eight in points against, with a bottom-five rank in defensive Total Points over the full season.

    Two of the other unders taken in our “draft” were the Chargers, who have a 6.9 expected win value compared to their 8.5 wins total, and the 49ers, who have a 9.8 expected win value compared to a win total of 11.5. 

    The Chargers are in the midst of a small rebuild and culture change with a new coach, and our drafter, Alex, wants to see it to believe it with another new coaching staff and a reworked skill position group. 

    The 49ers, fresh off the Super Bowl loss, were in a few dogfights down the stretch in the playoffs, and the defense wasn’t as good as its reputation last year, hence the reasons for the differential. 

    “I look at their schedule … they get the AFC East, and they lump in the Chiefs,” James said on our podcast (that’s me!) “Improved NFC, Super Bowl hangover being real. I just think 11.5, that’s pretty high.”

    A Battle in Charlotte

    Two of our draftees, Alex and Bryce, will go head-to-head this season when it comes to the Carolina Panthers. 

    Bryce has taken the under 5.5 because he doesn’t see a scenario in which Bryce Young can be a good quarterback for this team.

    Alex, on the other hand, thinks the hate has gone too far, and has a little more optimism with a new head coach in Dave Canales (who improved the quarterback play of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith over the last few years).

    “This is my pick in the genre of ‘Rookie quarterback might take them somewhere,’” Alex said. “I think you could also have ‘Rookie quarterback is anomalously bad’ and people get kind of insane about it. A year ago people were feeling reasonably good about the rest of the team, offensive line and defense. I do think there’s an overreaction and they can get a little bit of a bounceback.”

    The model sides with Bryce by the slimmest of margins, projecting 5.2 wins to the win total of 5.5. 

    Check out the full Off the Charts Football Podcast here for more analysis!

    Follow us on Twitter at @football_SIS and check out the DataHub and DataHub Pro for access to all our stats.

  • Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Photo: Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    In Week 16, I hit with a Breece Hall, Cleveland Browns, Jake Browning combo. Last week was a rough one for the parlay, but you can’t win them all. We hit with Dak Prescott’s passing yardage total but missed on Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yardage totals. Williams finished 8 yards shy. Gibbs would have eclipsed his total if not for a penalty that negated a 35-yard run.

    Regardless, we’re 1-for-2 so far, so we’re off to a good start. Here are the 3 options that our models like this week as we hope our 3rd try is a charm.

    Underdog – Josh Allen Alternate Passing Yards, 275+ @ +185

    Our model projects Allen to throw for 271.2 yards on 37.4 attempts in Miami on Sunday night, both of which are the 2nd highest estimates this week. On the year, Allen’s 122.8 Passing Points Earned ranks 2nd in the NFL.

    Allen completed 84% of his passes while throwing for 320 yards against the Dolphins in Week 4. Miami will be without one of its top pass rushers this time around, as Bradley Chubb was lost last week to a season-ending knee injury. Chubb has the 20th-most Points Saved on pass rushes (23.5) of any defender league wide.

    Finding an underdog that gives me confidence this week was like finding a needle in a haystack. I would have preferred a different George Pickens yardage prop here (more on him below) with an even-money Josh Allen total below, but no other Pickens lines are currently available on DraftKings. 

    Even – George Pickens Receiving Yards, Over 50.5 @ -115

    Pickens has compiled 326 yards in the last 2 games as the favorite target with Mason Rudolph at the helm, reeling in 4-of-5 deep balls (passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield) aimed his way. 

    Our projection model has Pickens estimated to accrue 83 yards against the Ravens, good enough for the 2nd highest estimated total in the league, only 1.4 behind CeeDee Lamb. The 32.5 yard gap between his line and projection is also the largest such gap available on DraftKings for Week 18 (we specifically looked for an over here).

    And a heads-up that DraftKings published yardage props for Pickens after our article came out. An 80-yard prop is at +340 as of noon ET on Friday.

    Speaking of Rudolph, over the last 2 weeks he’s totaled the 3rd-most EPA. His projection of 286.2 yards is also our model’s highest estimated total for the week.

    With the Steelers only recently finding offensive success and fighting for their playoff lives, I expect them to rely heavily on the tools that have worked for them as of late.

    Heavy Favorite – Falcons @ Saints Alternate Total, Under 49.5 @ -302

    These teams combined for 39 points in a 25-14 Falcons victory in New Orleans. Our model indicates the price at Under 49.5 points should be -595, a gap that I expect to close significantly between now and kickoff on Sunday. 

    My main reasoning for this pick is that these are the teams with the 2 best pass coverage units in the NFL in terms of Total Points Per Play (as noted in our weekly look at matchups and mismatches). A high-scoring shootout is not likely.

    The current O/U for this matchup on DraftKings is set at 42, and I’ve teased this up to 49.5 to be my confidence pick this week. 

    Total Parlay Odds: 6.09-to-1

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:42 AM 1/4/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

     

  • Week 17 Parlay Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Dak Prescott

    Week 17 Parlay Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Dak Prescott

    Photo: Steven King/Icon Sportswire

    “There is no great genius without a touch of madness.” – Aristotle

    I may have been told by my boss to not be too arrogant, but unfortunately I couldn’t really hear him from up here on my high-horse. For I am the self-described Sultan of Spreads, Lord of Long-Odds, Paladin of Parlays, or more commonly known, the intern who won you $764.00 last week. Kiss the rings.

    To briefly recap; Jake Browning didn’t have his best stuff in Pittsburgh, but still cleared the 221.5 mark with ease after Cincinnati abandoned the run early. Cleveland dominated Houston in a game that was 36-7 midway through the 4th. And Breece Hall, my Underdog of the Week, gouged Washington for 191 total yards, passing his 100+ prop before halftime.

    All three lines saw a ton of movement prior to their respective kickoffs, but we locked in this parlay at +764. Based on a $100.00 weekly wager, that win gives us a running payout total of $864.00 heading into Week 17.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.

     

    Underdog – Jahmyr Gibbs Alternate Rushing Yards Over 66.5: +210

    Among running backs with 100+ carries, Gibbs is leading the league in yards per attempt (5.7) by almost half of a yard (.3). Over the last four weeks he’s averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and 76.5 yards per game. 

    Gibbs also has a broken or missed tackle on 27% of his rush attempts and is averaging 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, good enough for 2nd and 6th respectively among running backs with 100+ carries. He’s been better in both metrics over the last four weeks.

    While Gibbs is electric, he’s bankable because of the quality of the offensive line in Detroit. Four-fifths of the Lions’ starting offensive lineman are ranked in the top 25 for run blocking Total Points this season. 

    The only two other teams with four lineman in the top 25 of that list are the Eagles and Bills. Both teams rushed for 100+ yards in all three of their matchups with Dallas, including a 266 yard explosion from Buffalo in Week 15.

     

    Even – Kyren Williams Rushing Yards Over 94.5: -115

    Williams is averaging a league-best 120.2 yards per game since returning from injury Week 12, clearing 100 in 4 out of 5 contests. For the full season, he’s leading all rushers with 96.1 yards per game and 30 Total Points. He’s also averaging the 4th most yards per attempt among running backs with 100+ carries (5.1). 

    Across the ball, the Giants have given up 3rd most rushing yards (1,709) and the 4th highest yards per carry (4.6) to running backs. Their run defense has the 5th worst Total Points per play this season.

    Our model is projecting Williams to rush for 108.1 yards this week. That’s 13.6 yards above his current over/under line, and the largest such gap currently available on DraftKings.

     

    Heavy Favorite – Dak Prescott Alternate Passing Yards Over 250.5: -265

    Prescott has cleared the 250 passing yard mark in seven of nine games since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. On the year, he’s 3rd in the league in Independent Quarterback Rating (104.8) and 6th in yards per attempt (7.5) among passers with at least 100 attempts.

    According to our model, he’s projected to throw for 284.8 yards, the 2nd highest total this week. CeeDee Lamb is also projected by the same model to lead the league in receiving yardage against Detroit. Lamb is the only receiver projected to top the 100 yard mark, and is 18.5 yards ahead of our 2nd highest projection.

    Detroit, conveniently, is vulnerable to the big play. Their pass defense is allowing big-EPA pass plays at the 2nd highest rate and is allowing the 5th highest average air yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (284.5). Overall, the Lions are allowing the 11th worst passer rating against and 8th most pass yards per attempt (7.6).

     

    Total Parlay Odds: +621

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:47 AM 12/28/2023

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

  • Week 16 Parlay Picks – Breece Hall, the Browns, and Jake Browning

    Week 16 Parlay Picks – Breece Hall, the Browns, and Jake Browning

    Photo: John Rivera/Icon Presswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m going to try something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.

    Underdog: Breece Hall- Alternate Rushing + Receiving Yards, 100+: +225

    Our projections models project Breece Hall to pick up 58 yards on the ground and 42 yards through the air this week; 100 total yards right on the nose. 

    Washington has been awful against the run since trading away the majority of its starting defensive line prior to Week 9. The defense is allowing the 5th-most yards per carry (4.8) of any team in the league over that time frame. Hall has two 100-yard rushing games this year. Both came against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Bills and Broncos).

    The Commanders have also struggled to contain running backs in the passing game since those deadline moves, having given up the 2nd-most receiving yards (291) and 4th-most yards per reception (8.3) over that span. 

    On the flip side, Hall has 53 receptions this year, 3rd in the NFL. He also ranks 3rd in targets and 4th in receiving yards.

    Hall is also averaging just under 5 targets per game and has at least 5 receptions in 4 out of his last 5 contests. 

    Yes, the Jets rank 30th in both Passing and Rushing Total Points Per Play but their reliance on Hall in the passing game is what gives me the confidence to make him my underdog/superdog pick this week.

    Favorite: Cleveland Browns Moneyline: -148

    The Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The 33rd Team website, views the matchup between the Texans offensive line and Browns defensive line as the 2nd-largest Week 16 mismatch among all line matchups. 

    Myles Garrett has the second-most Points Saved (38) of any pass rusher and most Points Saved Per Play of any defensive lineman this year, and has been far from the only contributor up front. 

    With Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason both questionable and trending towards not playing this weekend for the Texans, expect the Browns defensive front to fare well against whichever backup QB Houston decides to roll with as its starter.

    Favorite: Jake Browning- Alternate Passing Yards Over 221.5: -170

    Since taking over as the Bengals starter in Week 12, Jake Browning has the 3rd-most Total Points (33.6), 2nd-highest EPA (22.1), 3rd-best passer rating (109.3), and 4th-highest IQR (111.3) in the entire league. 

    Browning has thrown for over 225 yards in every single game he’s started while averaging 295 per game. His completion percentage (74%), on-target percentage (80%) and catchable percentage (95%) are all top-tier. 

    Our models are currently projecting 250.9 yards passing from Browning this week, making his alternate over/under of 221.5 my confidence play.

    Total Parlay Odds: +764

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:10 AM 12/21/2023

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

  • What Utah State Needs To Do To Hang With Alabama

    What Utah State Needs To Do To Hang With Alabama

    Coming off a Mountain West Championship and 11 wins, Utah State has positioned itself as a top Group-of-5 program. In spite of the Aggies’ efforts, they sit as a 41.5 point underdog against Alabama this week.

    The Crimson Tide have not lost to a G5 opponent since 2007. Alabama has easily disposed of quality programs such as Fresno State and Colorado State in 2017 and Arkansas State, coached by the current Aggies head coach Blake Anderson, in 2018.

    But what can Utah State do to, if not win, increase its odds of an upset or hang in and play a (relatively) close game?

    In general, underdogs can play a few ways to help their chances. When overmatched, the disadvantaged team should look to increase the variance of results as much as possible. Running fewer plays, often by running the ball and keeping the clock moving, can accomplish this.

    Executing an offense or defense the opponent rarely sees also helps, as the underdog shifts the game into a paradigm of his expertise and of the favorite’s ignorance. Army does both by running a flexbone offense, a run-heavy scheme that almost no one else uses. In the past five seasons, the Black Knights and their triple option offense have taken Oklahoma and Michigan to overtime and lost by 14 or fewer to Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest.

    Unfortunately for Utah State, its style of play does not match that of an upset candidate. The Aggies averaged 76 plays per game last season, good for 7th in the nation, and passed on 47% of those. Schematically, Utah State’s offense descends from Art Briles’ offense at Baylor, just like those of Alabama’s yearly opponents Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. Tennessee and Ole Miss even joined Utah State in the top 10 in plays per game. Though the Aggies have some film to see how Alabama will defend their up-tempo, wide split offense, they will not catch the Tide by surprise.

    While the Aggies style of play does not lend itself to the upset, they can adjust what they normally do to avoid Alabama’s strengths and take advantage of Alabama’s weaknesses, as few as they may be. The Aggies should stick to the air whenever possible, as they were 43rd in PAA per play in 2021 when passing, but 114th when running. They also return Logan Bonner at quarterback, a player currently on the Maxwell Award Watch List.

    Within the passing game, Utah State can stick to short drops and rolling out the quarterback to neutralize Alabama’s pass rush, ranked third in PAA per play in 2021. Utah State’s base passing game already consists mostly of 1-step drops, making up 22 out of its 31 dropbacks against UConn last Saturday and 288 of its 505 dropbacks in 2021.

    Even with the second-most one-step drops in the FBS, the Aggies ranked 34th in the nation in PAA per play when dropping back one step, and 7th in Boom %. Utah State also returns Justin McGriff at wideout, who was 3rd in Boom %  and 12th in EPA per Target on 1-step drops (minimum 25 targets). The 6’6 receiver makes a great target for Bonner, such as on this Sluggo thrown for a 14-yard touchdown last Saturday.

    While Alabama has great players across its entire defensive line, Will Anderson Jr. stands out as the best. The Nagurski Award winner returns for another season, sending opposing coaches to the chalkboard to scheme around his presence. Rolling Logan Bonner away from Anderson may provide the quarterback more time to throw. The Aggies are no strangers to the rollout, doing so 38 times in 2021 and ranking 14th in yards per attempt and 10th in QB Rating when bootlegging.

    While the rollout eliminates half the field as an option to throw the ball, in a game where Utah State will have few personnel matchups it can win, rolling away from mismatches provides better opportunities than dropping back into pressure. Expect the Rollout Flood, as seen in the video below, to appear from time to time this Saturday, as well as the Rollout Smash.

    Defensively, the Aggies play man coverage much better than zone. In Cover 0, 1 and Man 2 in 2021 the Aggies averaged 0.40 Points Saved Per Play, while in Cover 2, 3, 4, and 6 they averaged just 0.05. They can also sit in Man 2 while rushing four, as they ranked 24th in Points Saved per play when only rushing four or fewer in 2021. Expect Utah State to line up with four down linemen, or a stand-up end at times, three linebackers, two corners, and two high safeties against the Crimson Tide offense.

    Alabama will attempt to unbalance the Utah State defense and break its two-high shell. The Crimson Tide aligning with trips or a tight end to one side forces the Aggies to make an uncomfortable decision. They can drop a safety to help in the run game vs a tight end or the short passing game vs trips and lose their best coverage in Man Cover 2 or they can keep their two-high shell and remain vulnerable to the run and short passing game.

    In the video below against the UConn Huskies, the Aggies choose the latter, bumping their cornerback into the box to play the run. UConn gets six yards by running at the cornerback, though they lost their quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson for the year on the run. Playing the two-high base should maximize Utah State’s abilities and minimize their faults, but no defense is perfect. Look for Alabama to exploit the defense’s weakness with its alignment.

    The Aggies ride into Tuscaloosa as heavy underdogs against the greatest program in college football. Nobody expects a close game, much less a win. Even if Utah State executes its gameplan, Alabama has enough talent to still win easily. But by sticking to his strengths and avoiding his weaknesses David can increase his odds of hanging with Goliath.

  • Providing Sharp Football Analysis on the Super Bowl

    Providing Sharp Football Analysis on the Super Bowl

    Check out our Super Bowl coverage at Sharp Football Analysis.

    Corey March takes a look at 3 Super Bowl prop bet options in which the numbers indicate a favorable option.

    “Kupp, who has proven the ability to beat any number. He’s gone over 100 yards in 13-of-20 games, including 8-of-11 since the injury to Robert Woods, and posted a combined 325 yards over his last two games.

    Kupp will put his technical mastery on display against a Bengals secondary that is slightly below average according to Pass Coverage Points Saved (ranked 19th). Even more problematic for the Bengals is that their biggest weakness has been guarding the slot, ranking dead-last with 137 yards per game allowed to slot receivers.”

    READ

    Stephen Polacheck looks at the Rams and Bengals offenses and asks the question: Are these teams predictable in what they do?

    “When thinking about key moments, many third and fourth downs with short yardages come back as pivotal talking points following a game. The Bengals’ personnel choice in this situation tips their play selection. 11 personnel features a 26% rushing rate, and 12 personnel returns an 88% rushing rate. Compare this to the Rams offense, which uses 11 personnel on 91% of these snaps but has a passing rate of only 57%.” 

     

    READ

  • Prop Possibilities: Chargers vs Raiders

    Prop Possibilities: Chargers vs Raiders

    By Steve Schwarz

    1) Josh Palmer, over 1.5 receptions, -140. (SISBets -761).

    This should be considered the best bet on the board.  Palmer has become an integral part of the offense, seeing five or more targets in three of the last four games. In each of those games, he caught at least three balls.

    SIS data projects Palmer to see 5.3 targets and catch 3.7 for 39.6 yards. DraftKings has the bet set at -140, but based on our analysis it should be -761.

    2) Justin Jackson, over 23.5 yards, -115.

    Austin Ekeler has been great this season, but Jackson has become his primary backup over the past three games, seeing double-digit rushing attempts in each game. He’s also averaged 63.7 yards in those games. The Chargers may lean on Ekeler a little more in this “win-and-you’re-in” game, but our analysis still sees Jackson rushing 7.3 times for 34.3 yards, well above the 23.5-yard level.

    3) Derek Carr, under 25.5 completions, -140.

    The Raiders prefer a balanced offense to Carr passing on every down, particularly if Darren Waller is out of the lineup (he’s a game-time decision due to a knee injury). Over the last three games, Carr has completed 25-or-less passes and overall he’s been below that mark in nine of 16 games.

    Our data predicts he’ll go 23-for-34 for 265 yards. A fair market value should be -234, but the line is set at -140.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

  • Prop Possibilities: Browns at Steelers

    Prop Possibilities: Browns at Steelers

    Our final set of picks for the season are for tonight’s Browns-Steelers game, with the Steelers still alive in the AFC Wild Card hunt. As always, we use the SIS projections and SISBets to guide us along. There are three good options on the board based on those numbers.

    Thank you as always for reading.

    1) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, +100.

    Though he isn’t in his prime anymore and may retire after the season is over, Roethlisberger has still averaged 24 completions per game. He’s benefited from quality receivers, and two good rookies, one at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and at running back (Najee Harris).

    The SIS analysis projects Ben to complete 25-of-39 passes for 257 yards, well above the 22.5 completions necessary for the over. Fair market value should be -245, but it’s set at +100 and is the best bet on the Monday Night docket.

    2) Najee Harris, over 24.5 receiving yards -110.

    Harris has not only been the workhorse running back in his first season, but he’s also been an integral part of the passing game. He’s averaged 5.8 targets per game and pulled down almost 4.5 balls a night.

    In this Week 17 matchup, we expect him for see 5 or 6 targets (the projection is 5.5) and catch 4 balls for 36 yards.

    3) Donovan Peoples-Jones, over 32.5 receiving yards -115.

    Peoples-Jones disappeared last week in Green Bay, but he’s been a big part of this offense since Odell Beckham Jr. was released after Week 9. In the five games since then, he’s seen 6.2 targets per game.

    SIS data projects he’ll have 3 receptions for 40 yards, more than 20% above the 32.5-yard level.

    * Season record: 16-24

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

  • Prop Possibilities: Titans vs 49ers

    Prop Possibilities: Titans vs 49ers

    Admittedly, there aren’t a lot of great options among our prop possibilities this week. But here are three we found using SISBets.com. We had a rough week last week, missing on all four of our selections but hopefully these will get us headed in the right direction.

    1) Ryan Tannehill, under 20.5 completions, -130.

    Tannehill has been without his two favorite receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for most of the second half of the season and it has shown in his passing totals. Brown hasn’t played since Week 11 and Jones has barely played since Week 9. Tannehill has cracked the 21-completion mark just twice in his last six games and one time was against a bad Houston Texans’ defense. The 49ers defense rushes the quarterback well and has been improving as they have gotten healthier.

    SIS data projects Tannehill to throw 28.2 times and complete just 18.7 for 206.9 yards.

    2) George Kittle, over 5.5 receptions, -130.

    Kittle is a top-three tight end and since returning to the lineup from an injury has been dominant. In the last three games he’s seen 33 targets and caught 28 for 425 yards and three scores.

    SIS analysis expects him to see 9.4 targets and catch 6.8 for 83.7 yards against a Titans pass defense which ranks 20th in yards allowed.

    3) Jimmy Garoppolo, over 1.5 rushing yards, -115.

    Garoppolo doesn’t run much, but he has run for more than 1.5 yards in six of the past eight games. Our data projects he’ll run 2.4 times for 8.8 yards against Tennessee well above the two yards needed for the over.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.