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  • Prop Possibilities: Chiefs at Chargers

    Prop Possibilities: Chiefs at Chargers

    By Steve Schwarz

    Good game tonight with the Chiefs and Chargers squaring off, so we’ve got four prop possibilities with the help of our tools at SISBets.com.

    For the record, we’re 15-18 on these picks this season but are 4-2 on our last 6.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Patrick Mahomes, under 25.5 completions, -105.

    The dynamic Mahomes we have come to know has disappeared during the Chiefs’ current six-game winning streak. Instead, we have a more conservative version. This version has cracked 300 just once in his last seven games and thrown fewer than 24 completions in five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass defense allows only 20.4 completions per game. SIS analysis projects Mahomes going 23.9-of-37.1 for 275.4 yards.

    2) Tyreek Hill, under 6.5 receptions, +105.

    With Mahomes throwing less and teams playing two-deep safeties to prevent the long pass, Hill’s numbers having suffered a bit. He has just six receptions in his last two games and 26 catches over his last five starts. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers (148) through 13 games.

    Our data predicts Hill to see 8.4 targets and catch 5.5 balls for 67.3 yards.

    3) Darrel Williams, over 14.5 rushing yards, -115.

    Williams has become an integral part of the Kansas City offense since Week 3 and has rushed for more than 14.5 yards in 10-of-his-last 11 games. The return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from an MCL sprain has reduced his workload, but Williams has still surpassed the number in two of three contests.

    SIS data projects Williams to get 6.2 rushing attempts for 25.7 yards, almost double the necessary amount for the over.

    4) Keenan Allen, under 75.5 receiving yards, -115.

    Allen missed the Week 14 contest due to a positive Covid-19 test, but he’s since had two negative tests and is expected to be on the field Thursday night.

    The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with Allen sidelined and the second-year star quarterback showed he could spread the ball around using wideouts Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, running back Austin Ekeler and his tight ends to perfection. Allen is still the No. 1 guy, but Herbert isn’t afraid to look elsewhere if he’s covered or likely double-covered for much of the night. The Chiefs held Allen to just 50 yards in their first meeting this season.

    Our analysis projects Allen with 7.2 targets and 4.9 receptions for just 53 yards, well below the 75.5 receiving yards total.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers

     

    Patrick Mahomes

    Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 2.5 TD passes +140, under -190

    Over 0.5 INTs +120, under -160

    Over 25.5 completions -130, under -105

     

    Justin Herbert

    Over 287.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 2.5 TD passes +155, under -210

    Over 0.5 INTs +115, under -115

    Over 25.5 completions -110, under -120

     

     

    TD Scorers

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, -110

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, +100

    Travis Kelce, +110

    Darrel Williams, +190

    Patrick Mahomes, +350

    Mecole Hardman, +360

    Brian Pringle, +360

    Demarcus Robinson, +550

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Austin Ekeler, -150

    Keenan Allen, +150

    Mike Williams, +175

    Jalen Guyton, +300

    Jared Cook, +300

    Justin Herbert, +400

    Joshua Palmer, +350

    Justin Jackson, +350

    Donald Parham Jr., +450

     

     

    Rushing Yards

     

    Kansas City –

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 56.5 yards -120, under -110

    Darrel Williams, over 14.5 yards -115, under -115

    Patrick Mahomes, over 18.5 yards -115, under -115

     

     

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Justin Herbert, over 15.5 yards, -115, under -115

     

     

    Receptions

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, over 6.5 receptions -140, under +105

    Travis Kelce, over 5.5 receptions -155, under +115

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 2.5 receptions +125, under -165

    Darrel Williams, over 2.5 receptions +115, under -155

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Mike Williams, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Jalen Guyton, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Austin Ekeler, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

     

     

    Receiving Yards

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, over 81.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Travis Kelce, over 65.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 13.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Darrel Williams, over 18.5 receiving yards -125, under -105

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, over 75.5 receiving yards -120, under -115

    Mike Williams, over 54.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

  • Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    A pivotal matchup between the two teams that failed to beat the Lions graces us on Thursday Night Football. What a matchup! In all seriousness, this game should be fairly competitive as the Vikings look to right the ship and the Steelers come off an important win against the Ravens. Analysis done using SISBets.com. Let’s get into the picks:

    1) Kirk Cousins, under 22.5 completions, under -105.

    Cousins has been good for the past month, averaging 303 passing yards and over two touchdowns, but he’ll be challenged in this one because he will likely be without his “security blanket” and “red zone specialist” Adam Thielen (high-ankle sprain). The Vikings’ opponent, the Steelers, are only allowing 21.9 completions per game and love to get after the quarterback – leading the league with 37 sacks. SIS analysis has Cousins going 20-for-32 for 243 yards and a fair market value for the under at -199.

    2) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, over -115.

    Most of the talk last week was about the possible future retirement of Roethlisberger, but he’s not done yet. He no longer has those monster games, but his floor is still high. He’s cracked 200 yards in 10 consecutive games, and using his impressive rookies at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and running back (Najee Harris) and his skilled wideouts he has averaged 24.5 completions. Our projection suggests he’ll go 25-for-38 for 263 yards.

    3) Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120.

    Over his last three games, McCloud has seen 18 targets, showing he’s becoming more involved in the offense. His yards aren’t there yet, but he’s still averaging 27.3 yards over that span. The Vikings’ pass defense has been pretty bad all season, allowing almost 190 yards to opposing wideouts per game. SIS analysis predicts McCloud to see 4.6 targets and catch 3.3 for 33.4 yards. That’s more than double what’s necessary to win the over.

     

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Pittsburgh at Minnesota

    Ben Roethlisberger

    Over 257.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -120, under -110

    Over 0.5 INTs -125, under -110

    Over 22.5 completions -115, under -115

    Kirk Cousins

    Over 254.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -110, under -120

    Over 0.5 INTs +110, under -145

    Over 22.5 completions -125, under -105

     

    TD Scorers

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, -135

    Diontae Johnson, +120

    Chase Claypool, +190

    Pat Freiermuth, +190

    Ray-Ray McCloud, +380

    James Washington, +500

    Benny Snell, +1300

    Ben Roethlisberger, +1600

    Minnesota –

    Alexander Mattison, -125

    Justin Jefferson, -105

    K.J. Osborn, +200

    Tyler Conklin, +225

    Dede Westbrook, +350

    Kene Nwangwu, +400

    Kirk Cousins +850

     

    Rushing Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, over 71.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    Receptions

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 3.5 receptions -150, under +115

    Diontae Johnson, over 6.5 receptions -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 3.5 receptions -130, under -105

    Pat Freiermuth, over 3.5 receptions -125, under -105

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 7.5 receptions +100, under -135

    Tyler Conklin, over 3.5 receptions -160, under +120

     

    Receiving Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 51.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Diontae Johnson, over 79.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 26.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Pat Freiermuth, over 36.5 receiving yards -110, under -120

    Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120, under -110

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 92.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Tyler Conklin, over 39.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    K.J. Osborn, over 41.5 receiving yards -125, under -115

  • Thanksgiving Football Props to Consider

    Thanksgiving Football Props to Consider

    By Steve Schwarz

    Happy Thanksgiving. Let’s see if we can use SISBets.com to make it an even happier one for you. Here are four prop possibilities from Thursday’s games.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Stefon Diggs, under 6.5 receptions, -145.

    Diggs is coming off one of his worst games of the season, catching four balls for just 23 yards in a blowout loss to Indianapolis. He’s struggled for much of this season, having produced seven or more receptions just four times in 10 games. By contrast, he reached that level 11 times over 16 games in 2020. Additionally, the Saints have allowed the fewest receptions to wide receivers in the NFL, just 79 through 10 games.

    SIS data predicts Diggs will catch 4.8 of 7.1 targets for 61.8 yards. The oddsmakers have the under at -145, but the true odds should be -378.

    2) David Montgomery, over 16.5 receiving yards, -115.

    In 2020 Montgomery caught 54 balls for 438 yards over 15 games. He hasn’t been on the field much in 2021 due to injury, but he’s healthy now and with Andy Dalton under center, he’ll likely use Montgomery as his favorite check down option.

    SIS analysis has the running back catching 2.2 balls for 23 yards, almost 36% above the 17 yards required for the over.

    3) D’Andre Swift, over 33.5 receiving yards, -115.

    One of Swift’s best abilities is catching out of the backfield. He has 53 receptions for 420 yards and two scores this season. He’s caught 33-or-more yards in seven of 10 games.

    Our analysis projects Swift seeing 6.6 targets with 4.8 receptions for 46.3 yards. The odds are -115, but he should crush the over total easily.

    4) Tony Jones Jr., to score a touchdown, +450.

    If you are looking for a long shot which pays well, we recommend Jones Jr. to score a touchdown. The oddsmakers have set the odds at +450, but our data shows that with starter Alvin Kamara set to be inactive and Mark Ingram not at 100% (knee issues),

    Jones has a 21% chance of scoring on the ground and 17% through the air for a “fair market value” at +203.

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

  • 3 Prop Bet Options for Patriots-Falcons

    3 Prop Bet Options for Patriots-Falcons

    By STEVEN SCHWARZ

    Three props for tonight’s game between the Patriots and Falcons, using SISBets.com to help us out. We’re trying to improve on our 8-12 season record and our putting our faith in these numbers.

    1)  Matt Ryan, over 21.5 completions, -110.

    It’s been a year of adjustments for the veteran Falcons’ quarterback, Matt Ryan, who lost Julio Jones to the Titans in an off-season trade and new No. 1 receiver Calvin Ridley to personal issues. But Ryan has been a solid option for most of the season with six multi-touchdown passing games and averaging 24 completions for 253 yards per game.

    He’s reached 22 or-more completions in six of nine starts this season and SIS analysis projects he’ll throw 37.3 times, completing 24.4 for 268 yards. The odds for the over are set at -110, but we think the real odds should be -249.

     

    2) Kendrick Bourne over 33.5 yards, -115.

    3) Kendrick Bourne over 2.5 receptions, -180.

    The former San Francisco 49ers’ receivers has been a solid contributor in his first season with the Patriots. For the season he’s averaging 4.3 targets, 3.3 receptions and 52 receiving yards per game.

    But looking closer at the numbers, after a slow start in the first two contests, he’s averaged 5.3 targets, 3.8 receptions and 61.6 yards. Last weekend he led all Patriots’ receivers in receptions (tied at 4) and yards (98).

    The Falcon’s pass defense has been suspect this season, allowing 1,311 yards and 11 touchdowns to opposing wideouts. SIS data projects Bourne will catch 3.7-of-5.2 targets for 48 yards making the over on both receptions and yards excellent plays for Thursday night.

     

    Quarterback Passing Yards

    ————————————

    Mac Jones, 251.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    Matt Ryan, 251.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Quarterback Passing TDs

    ———————————–

    Mac Jones, over 1.5 TDs, -130/under +100

    Matt Ryan, over 1.5 TDs, over +125/under -170

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————-

    Mac Jones, over 0.5, INTs, +120/under -160

    Matt Ryan, over 0.5 INTs, -160/under +120

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Mac Jones, over 23.5, +100/under -130

    Matt Ryan, over 21.5, -110/under -120

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    New England –

    Rhamondre Stevenson, -115

    Damien Harris, -115

    Hunter Henry, +120

    Jakobi Meyers, +140

    Kendrick Bourne, +225

    Nelson Agholor, +250

    Brandon Bolden, +300

    Jonnu Smith, +350

    Mac Jones, +600

    N’Keal Harry, +750

    Atlanta –

    Cordarrelle Patterson, +100

    Mike Davis, +180

    Kyle Pitts, +175

    Olamide Zaccheaus, +230

    Russell Gage, +275

    Wayne Gallman, +300

    Matt Ryan, +750

     

    Rushing Yards

    ——————-

    New England –

    Damien Harris, 57.5, over -115/under -115

    Mac Jones, 5.5, over -110/under -120

     

    Atlanta –

    Matt Ryan, 3.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Receiving Yards

    ———————

    New England –

    Hunter Henry, 33.5, over -115/under -115

    Jakobi Meyers, 55.5, over -115/under -115

    Kendrick Bourne, 33.5, over -115/under -115

    Nelson Agholor, 35.5, over -115/under -115

     

     

    Atlanta –

    Kyle Pitts, 65.5, over -115/under -115

    Olamide Zaccheaus, 34.5, over -115/under -115

    Russell Gage, 41.5, over -115/under -115

     

    Receptions

    ————–

    New England –

    Hunter Henry, 3.5, over +120/under -160

    Jakobi Meyers, 4.5, over -150/under +115

    Kendrick Bourne, 2.5, over -180/under +135

    Nelson Agholor, 3.5, over +140/under -190

     

    Atlanta –

    Kyle Pitts, 4.5, over -165/under +120

    Olamide Zaccheaus, 2.5, over -140/under +105

    Russell Gage, 3.5, over -130/under -105

  • SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and things have started to go off the rails. Key injuries, illnesses, and tragedies have been grabbing headlines all week.

    The results on the field last week were just as polarizing. Four backup quarterbacks pulled off victories, highlighted by Mike White and the Jets toppling the AFC-leading Bengals, and Trevor Siemien coming on in relief to beat the defending champs.

    The Cardinals suffered a dramatic defeat to finally add a blemish to their record, but they held on as the Total Points Leaders.

    Power Rankings: Total Points per Game (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1000)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+650)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)
    4. Buffalo Bills  (+500)
    5. Dallas Cowboys  (+1000)

    FEATURED GAME – BRONCOS at COWBOYS

    Denver managed to stop a four-game skid but traded Von Miller at the deadline, leading to uncertainty about which direction their season is headed. Meanwhile, backup QB Cooper Rush pulled off an improbable win to send the Cowboys to 6-1, their best start since 2016.

    There is a significant contrast in the public perception of these two teams, and rightfully so based on the notes we highlighted in the intro. However, Denver (8th) ranks closer to Dallas (5th) in terms of Team Total Points than most would think.

    Dallas has a potent offense that’s eclipsed 20 points in all seven of its games, but Denver has allowed their opponents to reach that mark just twice.

    Denver’s already poor pass rush took a hit when they dealt Von Miller, so they’ll need to make up for it by limiting the Dallas rushing attack, something they’ve done well as the seventh-ranked run defense.

    The spread is set quite high at Dallas -10, and not very reflective of the advanced metrics. The public is heavily backing Dallas nonetheless; we’ll fade the public and side with Denver to cover.

    THE PICK:  BRONCOS +10


    Patrick Price Check: Where is Mahomes struggling this season?

    Is it time to press the panic button in Kansas City? Everyone was looking for the Chiefs to assert their dominance on Monday night, but the performance was hardly a confidence builder despite the winning result. With half the season left to play, FiveThirtyEight gives the two-time defending AFC champs a 51% chance to make the playoffs, and just a 2% chance to reclaim the Super Bowl title. This time last year those numbers were probably closer to 100% and 20%.

    It’s easy to place the blame on a defense that ranks 24th in Total Points, but we haven’t seen the same Patrick Mahomes that we’re used to seeing fill up the highlight reel. Instead we’ve seen him already match his career-high in turnovers (12).

    Mahomes ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned, just ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. That’s a solid ranking and even more solid company, but it’s not up the level of expectation he set after finishing 1st, 3rd, and 1st in his three seasons.

    The game-by-game Passing Points Earned totals begin to look more troubling.

    Mahomes has logged 52 career regular season games with 15+ pass attempts. His last four games have all ranked among the 10 worst in his career and none of his 2021 performances have cracked his top-10.

    Focusing in on Mahomes’ performance by throw depth gives us more insight into where he’s struggling.

    In his first three seasons, Mahomes ranked as the top overall QB in terms of Passing Points Earned and was excelling at all levels of the field.

    His status has regressed at all three levels this season, but most notably, his intermediate passing rank has slipped from 1st all the way to 20th.

    Mahomes had registered a 71% On-Target Throw Rate on intermediate passes from 2018-20 but has seen that rate come in at just 63% through his first eight games (24th-best), while delivering 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Mahomes has also been much less effective under duress this season despite experiencing the lowest pressure rate of his career.

    His 44% Positive Play Rate under pressure from 2018-20 ranked second, only narrowly behind Deshaun Watson. That rate has dipped to 35% this season, representing another category where Mahomes has regressed from elite to league average.

    Here are Mahomes’ rate stats under pressure during each year of his career (pulled from the SIS DataHub Pro).

    Sign up for a 7-day free trial of the SIS DataHub Pro

    The Chiefs were handed a break with the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game, but Mahomes will have his hands full with the Packers defense that ranks top-10 in both Pass Rush and Pass Coverage Points Saved.


    Boom Goes the Dynamite: Spotlight on big play receivers

    When discussing the top fantasy receivers, there’s obviously no more important figure than Fantasy Points.

    It’s useful (and fun) to understand how Fantasy Points were scored to see who’s primed for continued success and who may flame out.

    We’re going to look at the top four receivers who have been piling up big play opportunities, and how well they’ve been converting them.

    The three metrics we’ll focus on are:
    (1) Boom Rate: The percentage of targets that result in 1+ EPA (expected points added)
    (2) End Zone Team Share: The percentage of the team’s passes into the end zone that have been thrown to this player.
    (3) Deep Ball Team Share: The percentage of the team’s deep passes (15+ air yards) that have been thrown to this player.

    #1 Ja’Marr Chase

    Chase was the runaway top choice; he ranks 2nd in deep ball team share, and 3rd in both Boom Rate and end zone team share.

    The Bengals have several talented receivers, but it’s clear that the rookie is Joe Burrow’s favorite option. Chase has 12 deep ball receptions, which is more than all of his teammates combined.

    #2  Marquise Brown

    No receiver has had more total big play chances than Hollywood Brown. Brown ranks 1st in end zone team share and 7th in deep ball team share.

    However, Brown hasn’t been as effective hauling in these opportunities. Brown has dropped four deep balls, one of which was in the end zone. This has contributed to his pedestrian Boom Rate that ranks just 25th/100.

    Brown has zero drops otherwise, so there’s plenty of hope for future upside here.

    #3  Adam Thielen

    Everyone seems to forget about Thielen on fantasy draft day and when constructing DFS lineups, but no receiver has racked up more end zone targets than his 25 over the last two seasons.

    Justin Jefferson was also a candidate for this list, evidence that the Vikings offense is funneled through their two top receivers. Thielen has the slight edge in both end zone targets (5 to 4) and deep ball targets (17 to 16).

    Aside from these two superstars, the rest of the Vikings team has combined for just two end zone targets and 10 deep ball targets.

    #4  Cooper Kupp

    Based on Kupp’s fantasy point production, it’s almost surprising he’s not higher on this list. Kupp has 37 more PPR points than the second-best fantasy receiver, Tyreek Hill, and that margin represents the gap between Hill and the 8th-ranked receiver.

    Kupp’s 27 PPR points per game is the highest average ever by a receiver through the first eight weeks.

    If there’s one area holding Kupp back, it’s been that he’s sharing a big chunk of the Rams end zone targets with his teammates. Kupp and Robert Woods each have six, while Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have four apiece.

    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS Weekly Football Projections: SIS has launched weekly NFL and College Football projections on our website. You can get projections broken down by category for all fantasy-relevant players, and they’re also a great resource for prop betting.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 8 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 9.
    • Sharp Football: Check out our three prop bet recommendations for this Sunday’s games!
  • Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    By Steven Schwarz

    With just a few hours before kickoff, here are two quick prop plays that come recommended via use of SISBets.com and DraftKings.

    1) Michael Carter, score a touchdown, +160.

    It appears that the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to Michael Carter’s “takeover” of the Jets’ backfield. At SIS, our analysis predicts he’ll get 14 rushing attempts and six targets and will combine for 100 yards (55.5 rushing yards and 44.9 receiving yards) including a 73.3% chance of scoring a touchdown. He has scored in three of the last four games.

    Based on these numbers, Carter should be a -123 favorite to score, but the oddsmakers have him listed at +160.

    2) Jonathan Taylor, over 2.5 receptions, +125. SB -194

    We think of Taylor as a first- and second-down running back with Nyheim Hines as the receiving back, but in 2021, Taylor is doing double-duty. In addition to 15 rushing attempts per game, he’s caught at least three balls in 5-of-8 games this season and four-of-the-last five. SIS data has him getting 4.6 targets and catching 3.4 balls for 37 yards.

    A fair market price would be -194, but the current odds are +125.

  • Top Prop Bet Options for Cardinals-Packers

    Top Prop Bet Options for Cardinals-Packers

    by STEVEN SCHWARZ

    This Thursday Night Football game between the Cardinals and Packers. should be a great matchup, perhaps even a preview of a Divisional Playoff game or Conference Championship. There’s a lot to look forward to as we watch Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers at work.

    But from a gambling perspective, there’s one caveat: Notice that Green Bay receiver odds for both receptions and yards are not available.

    There are too many question marks as of this writing related to who will be catching balls from  Rodgers. His main receiver Davante Adams, is sidelined with a positive Covid-19 test and Allen Lazard, as an unvaccinated close contact, has also been ruled out.

    The biggest question is whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) will be activated from the IR. No Packer is listed for over/under receptions and only tight ends and running back Aaron Jones are listed for receiving yards.

    With that, here are our picks:

    1) Kyler Murray, under 24.5 completions, under -105.

    Murray is playing at an MVP level, but the 24.5 completion level is too high. He has reached that total just twice in seven games and not since Week 3. DraftKings set the odds at -105, but the SIS data analysis predicts 22.5 completions for 244.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. The fair market value for this “under” should be -207.

    2) Zach Ertz, under 3.5 receptions, under -170.

    Ertz, traded from Philadelphia just a week ago, exploded onto the scene with a 47-yard touchdown catch and run and is just what the Cardinals needed. But he is one of many talented pass catchers on this team which includes; DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore. Running back Chase Edmonds also catches the ball well.

    Ertz is likely behind all five players on the target totem pole. Our analysis has Ertz seeing 3.7 targets and catching 2.3 balls for 24 yards. That sets the fair under value at -398, but at DraftKings it’s just -170.

    3) AJ Dillon, over 31.5 rushing yards, over -115.

    Dillon has become a significant part of the Packers running game as the season has progressed. He had 19 touches in the first three games this season, but that number jumped to 39 in the next three contests. The Cardinals have been very good near the goal line, allowing just one rushing touchdown, but they are middle-of-the-road in yards allowed (86.2 ypg). The SIS data expects Dillon to rush for 40.8 yards, well above the 31.5 yards needed for the over.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    Odds –

     

    Quarterback Passing Yards

    ————————————

    Aaron Rodgers, 255.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    Kyler Murray, 276.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Quarterback Passing TDs

    ———————————–

    Aaron Rodgers, over 1.5, TDs, -165/under +125

    Kyler Murray, over 2.5 TDs, +150/under -205

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————-

    Aaron Rodgers, over 0.5, INTs, +160/under -215

    Kyler Murray, over 0.5 INTs, +105/under -140

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Aaron Rodgers, over 24.5, -105/under -125

    Kyler Murray, over 24.5, -125/under -105

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, -120

    Randall Cobb, +225

    Robert Tonyan, +225

    Marquez Valdes-Scantling, +250

    AJ Dillon, +275

    Equanimeous St. Brown, +400

    Aaron Rodgers, +450

    Marcedes Lewis, +750

     

    Arizona –

    James Conner, +100

    DeAndre Hopkins, +110

    Kyler Murray, +140

    Zach Ertz, +175

    Chase Edmonds, +200

    AJ Green, +225

    Christian Kirk, +225

    Rondale Moore, +330

     

    Rushing Yards

    ——————-

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, 59.5, over -115/under -115

    Aaron Rodgers, 9.5, over -110/under -120

    AJ Dillon, 31.5, over -115/under -115

     

    Arizona –

    Chase Edmonds, 44.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    James Conner, 48.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    Kyler Murray, 28.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Receiving Yards

    ———————

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, 33.5, over -125/under -110

    Marcedes Lewis, 18.5, over -110/under -120

    Robert Tonyan, 35.5, over -120/under -110

     

    Arizona –

    AJ Green, 46.5, over -115/under -115

    Chase Edmonds, 22.5, over -115/under -115

    Christian Kirk, 45.5, over -110/under -120

    DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -115/under -115

    Rondale Moore, 3.5, over -110/under -120

    Zach Ertz, 30.5, over -115/under -115

     

    Receptions

    ————–

    Green Bay –

     

    Arizona –

    AJ Green, 3.5, over -135/under +100

    Chase Edmonds, 3.5, over +115/under -150

    Christian Kirk, 3.5, over -160/under +120

    DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -110/under -120

    Rondale Moore, 3.5, over +105/under -140

    Zach Ertz, 3.5, over +130/under -175

     

  • What the data shows: Prop Bet Possibilities for Eagles-Buccaneers

    What the data shows: Prop Bet Possibilities for Eagles-Buccaneers

    By Steven Schwarz

    Here are 3 prop bet options that jibe with what we can find on SIS Bets.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Chris Godwin, 5.5 receptions, under -110

    The Tampa Bay offense has been dominated by their air attack, but it’s pretty diverse with dangerous options everywhere even with tight end Rob Gronkowski sidelined. Godwin gets his fair share, but Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Giovani Bernard have kept Godwin from exploding for most of the season.

    We see that trend continuing and SIS data has Godwin seeing just 6.2 targets for which he’ll catch 4.5 receptions for 56.8 yards. Based on that data a fair market value for the under would be -237, but DraftKings has placed the odds at -110.

    2) Giovani Bernard, 1.5 receptions, over -150.

    Bernard has caught 15-of-17 targets this season. He’s grabbed at least two balls in all four games he’s played to date. That should continue in Week 6 as SIS analysis expects Bernard to catch 2.7 of his 3.6 targets for 24.5 yards.

    Fair market odds would put the true value at -302, but you’re only paying -150 at DraftKings.

    3) Kenneth Gainwell, 3.5 receptions, under -135.

    Gainwell continues to carve out a place in the Eagles’ offense and he’s done it primarily as a pass receiver out of the backfield, but he’s only caught more than three balls one time this season. He averages 2.8 receptions this season. Therefore, we like the under 3.5 receptions here. Fair market value should be -352 as we are projecting just 2.4 receptions for 24.9 yards.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

  • 3 Prop Bet Options for Rams-Seahawks

    3 Prop Bet Options for Rams-Seahawks

    by STEVEN SCHWARZ

    Three prop bet options for Thursday Night Football that rate favorably per SISBets.com

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Russell Wilson, under 24.5 completions, -125.

    This is the best prop bet on the board tonight. Wilson is averaging just 27.3 passing attempts per game, so the likelihood that he will complete 25 of them is minimal. Through four games he has yet to complete more than 23.

    The SIS data predicts Wilson will throw 30 times and complete just 20 for 223 yards.

    Based on this information, the actual odds for under 24.5 completions should be -475, but at DraftKings the number is set at -125. The math clearly favors this one.

     

    2) Cooper Kupp, over 6.5 receptions, -145.

    Through four games Kupp has been the hottest receiver in the league, producing 431 yards and five touchdowns on 42 targets and 30 receptions. He’s gotten double-digit targets in every game and only once has Kupp caught fewer than seven balls.

    The Seahawks’ pass defense hasn’t been very good, yielding the seventh-most completions, fifth-most yards and eighth-most touchdown passes. Kupp and Stafford should be a potent weapon.

    Our analysis predicts Kupp will see 12.5 targets, catch 8.9 balls for 102.9 yards. A fair number for the Kupp over should be -363, but we only have to give -145.

     

    3) Robert Woods, under 5.5 receptions, -135.

    Woods has been a disappointment this season and through the first four games has yet to catch six balls in a game.

    The primary reason is opportunity.

    Last season he averaged 8.1 targets, but through for games this season he’s getting only 6.3 targets.

    The SIS prediction analysis says he will see 5.6 targets, catch 3.8 balls for 42.5 yards.

    If correct, a fair number for the under would be -442, yet at DraftKings the number is set at -135.

     

    SIS has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Odds –

    Quarterback Passing Yards

    ————————————

    Matthew Stafford, over 298.5, -115/under -115

    Russell Wilson, over 266.5, -115/under -115

     

    Quarterback Passing TDs

    ———————————–

    Matthew Stafford, over 2.5, TDs, +130/under -175

    Russell Wilson, over 1.5 TDs, -155/under +115

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————-

    Matthew Stafford, over 0.5, INTs, +110/under -145

    Russell Wilson, over 0.5 INTs, +130/under -175

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Matthew Stafford, over 25.5, completions, -110/under -125

    Russell Wilson, over 24.5 completions, -105/under -125

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    Los Angeles Rams –

    Cooper Kupp, -130

    Darrell Henderson Jr., -110

    Robert Woods, +110

    Van Jefferson, +200

    Tyler Higbee, +200

    Sony Michel, +230

    DeSean Jackson, +300

    Matthew Stafford, +550

     

     

    Seattle –

    Chris Carson, -110

    Tyler Lockett, +100

    DK Metcalf, +105

    Alex Collins, +200

    Freddie Swaim, +200

    Russell Wilson, +300

    Gerald Everett, +350

    Will Dissly, +400

    Travis Homer, +450

    DeeJay Dallas, +450

     

     

    Rushing Yards

    ——————-

    Los Angeles –

    Darrell Henderson Jr., 64.5, over -115/under -115

    Matthew Stafford, 5.5, over -110/under -120

     

    Seattle –

    Chris Carson, 46.5, over -110/under -120

    Russell Wilson, 21.5, over -110/under -120

     

    Receiving Yards

    ———————

    Los Angeles –

    Cooper Kupp, 84.5, over -115/under -115

    Darrell Henderson Jr., 20.5, over -115/under -115

    Robert Woods, 60.5, over -115/under -115

    Tyler Higbee, 42.5, over -115/under -115

    Van Jefferson, 44.5, over -110/under -120

     

     

    Seattle –

    Chris Carson, 9.5, over -115/under -115

    DK Metcalf, 73.5, over -115/under -115

    Freddie Swaim, 21.5, over -110/under -120

    Tyler Lockett, 67.5, over -115/under -115

     

     

    Receptions

    ————–

    Los Angeles –

    Cooper Kupp, 6.5, over -145/under +110

    Darrell Henderson Jr., 2.5, over -180/under +135

    Robert Woods, 5.5, over +100/under -135

    Tyler Higbee, 3.5, over -125/under -105

    Van Jefferson, 3.5, over -110/under -120

    Seattle –

    Chris Carson, 1.5, over -140/under +105

    DK Metcalf, 5.5, over -150/under +115

    Freddie Swaim, 2.5, over +145/under -195

    Tyler Lockett, 5.5, over +100/under -130

     

     

  • SIS Named A Top Sports Betting Startup by Investors

    SIS Named A Top Sports Betting Startup by Investors

    With growth in the U.S. sports betting industry surging, Insider asked five prominent venture capitalists and angel investors which sports betting startups they thought would surge in the next 12 months.

    SIS made the list, as Insider’s Ashley Rodriguez spoke with angel investor Benjie Cherniak about the company.

    Here’s an excerpt from what she wrote.

    Sports Info Solutions

    What it does: Sports Info Solutions gathers and sells data on what’s happening in a game to sports teams, leagues, media companies, and operators.

    Investor Benjie Cherniak, who built and ran betting-data supplier Don Best earlier in his career, said Sports Info Solutions started restructuring about five months ago, following an investment round led by Audeo Capital.

    Cherniak is bullish on Sports Info Solutions because he thinks it can augment the data provided by giants like Sportradar and Genius Sports. Cherniak said Sports Info Solutions has been talking with sports-gambling operators about the gaps it can fill in their data.

    “We have a new energy within the organization,” Cherniak said. “Of all the companies I’m involved with … it’s the one that provides data insights and relevant metrics for the entire sports engagement space.”

    To read the rest of the article ($) and see the other companies that made the list, click here.