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  • SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and things have started to go off the rails. Key injuries, illnesses, and tragedies have been grabbing headlines all week.

    The results on the field last week were just as polarizing. Four backup quarterbacks pulled off victories, highlighted by Mike White and the Jets toppling the AFC-leading Bengals, and Trevor Siemien coming on in relief to beat the defending champs.

    The Cardinals suffered a dramatic defeat to finally add a blemish to their record, but they held on as the Total Points Leaders.

    Power Rankings: Total Points per Game (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1000)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+650)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)
    4. Buffalo Bills  (+500)
    5. Dallas Cowboys  (+1000)

    FEATURED GAME – BRONCOS at COWBOYS

    Denver managed to stop a four-game skid but traded Von Miller at the deadline, leading to uncertainty about which direction their season is headed. Meanwhile, backup QB Cooper Rush pulled off an improbable win to send the Cowboys to 6-1, their best start since 2016.

    There is a significant contrast in the public perception of these two teams, and rightfully so based on the notes we highlighted in the intro. However, Denver (8th) ranks closer to Dallas (5th) in terms of Team Total Points than most would think.

    Dallas has a potent offense that’s eclipsed 20 points in all seven of its games, but Denver has allowed their opponents to reach that mark just twice.

    Denver’s already poor pass rush took a hit when they dealt Von Miller, so they’ll need to make up for it by limiting the Dallas rushing attack, something they’ve done well as the seventh-ranked run defense.

    The spread is set quite high at Dallas -10, and not very reflective of the advanced metrics. The public is heavily backing Dallas nonetheless; we’ll fade the public and side with Denver to cover.

    THE PICK:  BRONCOS +10


    Patrick Price Check: Where is Mahomes struggling this season?

    Is it time to press the panic button in Kansas City? Everyone was looking for the Chiefs to assert their dominance on Monday night, but the performance was hardly a confidence builder despite the winning result. With half the season left to play, FiveThirtyEight gives the two-time defending AFC champs a 51% chance to make the playoffs, and just a 2% chance to reclaim the Super Bowl title. This time last year those numbers were probably closer to 100% and 20%.

    It’s easy to place the blame on a defense that ranks 24th in Total Points, but we haven’t seen the same Patrick Mahomes that we’re used to seeing fill up the highlight reel. Instead we’ve seen him already match his career-high in turnovers (12).

    Mahomes ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned, just ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. That’s a solid ranking and even more solid company, but it’s not up the level of expectation he set after finishing 1st, 3rd, and 1st in his three seasons.

    The game-by-game Passing Points Earned totals begin to look more troubling.

    Mahomes has logged 52 career regular season games with 15+ pass attempts. His last four games have all ranked among the 10 worst in his career and none of his 2021 performances have cracked his top-10.

    Focusing in on Mahomes’ performance by throw depth gives us more insight into where he’s struggling.

    In his first three seasons, Mahomes ranked as the top overall QB in terms of Passing Points Earned and was excelling at all levels of the field.

    His status has regressed at all three levels this season, but most notably, his intermediate passing rank has slipped from 1st all the way to 20th.

    Mahomes had registered a 71% On-Target Throw Rate on intermediate passes from 2018-20 but has seen that rate come in at just 63% through his first eight games (24th-best), while delivering 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Mahomes has also been much less effective under duress this season despite experiencing the lowest pressure rate of his career.

    His 44% Positive Play Rate under pressure from 2018-20 ranked second, only narrowly behind Deshaun Watson. That rate has dipped to 35% this season, representing another category where Mahomes has regressed from elite to league average.

    Here are Mahomes’ rate stats under pressure during each year of his career (pulled from the SIS DataHub Pro).

    Sign up for a 7-day free trial of the SIS DataHub Pro

    The Chiefs were handed a break with the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game, but Mahomes will have his hands full with the Packers defense that ranks top-10 in both Pass Rush and Pass Coverage Points Saved.


    Boom Goes the Dynamite: Spotlight on big play receivers

    When discussing the top fantasy receivers, there’s obviously no more important figure than Fantasy Points.

    It’s useful (and fun) to understand how Fantasy Points were scored to see who’s primed for continued success and who may flame out.

    We’re going to look at the top four receivers who have been piling up big play opportunities, and how well they’ve been converting them.

    The three metrics we’ll focus on are:
    (1) Boom Rate: The percentage of targets that result in 1+ EPA (expected points added)
    (2) End Zone Team Share: The percentage of the team’s passes into the end zone that have been thrown to this player.
    (3) Deep Ball Team Share: The percentage of the team’s deep passes (15+ air yards) that have been thrown to this player.

    #1 Ja’Marr Chase

    Chase was the runaway top choice; he ranks 2nd in deep ball team share, and 3rd in both Boom Rate and end zone team share.

    The Bengals have several talented receivers, but it’s clear that the rookie is Joe Burrow’s favorite option. Chase has 12 deep ball receptions, which is more than all of his teammates combined.

    #2  Marquise Brown

    No receiver has had more total big play chances than Hollywood Brown. Brown ranks 1st in end zone team share and 7th in deep ball team share.

    However, Brown hasn’t been as effective hauling in these opportunities. Brown has dropped four deep balls, one of which was in the end zone. This has contributed to his pedestrian Boom Rate that ranks just 25th/100.

    Brown has zero drops otherwise, so there’s plenty of hope for future upside here.

    #3  Adam Thielen

    Everyone seems to forget about Thielen on fantasy draft day and when constructing DFS lineups, but no receiver has racked up more end zone targets than his 25 over the last two seasons.

    Justin Jefferson was also a candidate for this list, evidence that the Vikings offense is funneled through their two top receivers. Thielen has the slight edge in both end zone targets (5 to 4) and deep ball targets (17 to 16).

    Aside from these two superstars, the rest of the Vikings team has combined for just two end zone targets and 10 deep ball targets.

    #4  Cooper Kupp

    Based on Kupp’s fantasy point production, it’s almost surprising he’s not higher on this list. Kupp has 37 more PPR points than the second-best fantasy receiver, Tyreek Hill, and that margin represents the gap between Hill and the 8th-ranked receiver.

    Kupp’s 27 PPR points per game is the highest average ever by a receiver through the first eight weeks.

    If there’s one area holding Kupp back, it’s been that he’s sharing a big chunk of the Rams end zone targets with his teammates. Kupp and Robert Woods each have six, while Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have four apiece.

    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS Weekly Football Projections: SIS has launched weekly NFL and College Football projections on our website. You can get projections broken down by category for all fantasy-relevant players, and they’re also a great resource for prop betting.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 8 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 9.
    • Sharp Football: Check out our three prop bet recommendations for this Sunday’s games!
  • World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: Matthew Stafford & Kyler Murray Soar

    World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: Matthew Stafford & Kyler Murray Soar

    By MARK SIMON AND ALEX VIGDERMAN

    Let’s take stock of where our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings stand at the midpoint of the NFL season.

    This is a good week to do so, as the rankings are basically a match for what they were entering the Week 8 games.

    A reminder that The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average (PAA), which is the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

    The most interesting story is not so much the jockeying for position between the top three quarterbacks, who currently are Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. We’ve already talked about Kirk Cousins in this space, but Matthew Stafford’s ascent to the No. 5 spot and Kyler Murray’s move into the Top 10 are worthy of discussion as well.

    Here’s the current Top 10

    1. Tom Brady
    2. Aaron Rodgers
    3. Patrick Mahomes
    4. Kirk Cousins
    5. Matthew Stafford
    6. Lamar Jackson
    7. Derek Carr
    8. Justin Herbert
    9. Kyler Murray
    10. Josh Allen

    When Stafford was traded from the Lions to the Rams, there was a buzz that the Rams made out very well and that we would finally get to see the best of what Stafford (and Sean McVay) had to offer.

    He’s done that. He’s No. 1 in the NFL with 84 Points Earned and only Tyrod Taylor’s game-plus to start the year leads him in Points Above Average Per Snap this season.

    In a Week 8 in which backup quarterbacks thrived and Brady, Mahomes, and Rodgers all had negative Points Above Average, Stafford thrived. He had the highest PAA of anyone last week, topping Geno Smith and Mike White (wow) by more than 50% of their totals. With Rodgers out this week, he’s a sitting target for Stafford to try to pass if he can have a good game against the Titans.

    Among the 33 quarterbacks that have attempted at least 100 passes this season, Stafford ranks

     

    2nd in touchdown percentage (8.1%)

    1st in sack percentage (2.5%)

    1st in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.6)

     

    Of those, the sack percentage is most notable. Stafford was sacked 38 times last season. He’s averaged less than one sack per game in 2021.

    Stafford has 11 touchdowns and one interception on passes traveling fewer than 10 yards downfield. His 12 Points Above Average Per 100 Plays on those passes is consistent with his 2019 season, but miles ahead of 2020, when he was essentially average. For comparison, Jared Goff posted 8.6 PAA/100 on those throws in 2020.

    We should point out that Stafford is getting some help from his receivers. He’s 21st in catchable pass percentage  (84.6%) and 26th in on-target percentage (73.7%), numbers that aren’t necessarily unexpected given his average throw depth of 8.8 yards, which is in the top ten. His receivers rank third in the NFL in Points Earned per Play in part because of what they’ve been able to do to bring in and make hay with those passes.

    On deep balls, Kyler Murray takes the crown–he has the most Points Earned in total and per-play. He’s at No. 9 in our rankings and we’re guessing there’s a clamoring that he’d be higher. Murray’s downfield passing accuracy this season has been impressive. His catchable pass percentage on throws at least 15 yards downfield is 81%. Only two quarterbacks rate better–Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow—with both doing so on fewer attempts.

    There’s no comparison between Murray’s current accuracy and his past accuracy on these passes, which makes Murray’s ascent pretty easily explainable.

     

    Passes At Least 15 Yards Downfield

    Catchable Pass Pct Completions
    2019 64% 45
    2020 67% 39
    2021 81% 32*

    * 8 games

     

    Here are the full rankings.

    Rank Rank PAA per 60 Rk LastRk StartOfSeasonRk
    1 Tom Brady 0.0929 1 1 3
    2 Aaron Rodgers 0.088 2 2 1
    3 Patrick Mahomes 0.0859 3 3 2
    4 Kirk Cousins 0.0848 4 4 9
    5 Matthew Stafford 0.0821 5 5 14
    6 Lamar Jackson 0.0642 6 6 12
    7 Derek Carr 0.0636 7 7 7
    8 Justin Herbert 0.0588 8 10 10
    9 Kyler Murray 0.057 9 9 15
    10 Josh Allen 0.056 10 8 6
    11 Deshaun Watson 0.0383 11 11 4
    12 Russell Wilson 0.0356 12 12 5
    13 Ryan Tannehill 0.0334 13 13 8
    14 Dak Prescott 0.0158 14 14 17
    15 Matt Ryan 0.0134 15 15 11
    16 Teddy Bridgewater 0.0094 16 16 18
    17 Baker Mayfield -0.0065 17 19 13
    18 Jameis Winston -0.0072 18 18 55
    19 Joe Burrow -0.0119 19 17 22
    20 Jacoby Brissett -0.0167 20 20 21
    21 Tyrod Taylor -0.0213 21 23 56
    22 Ryan Fitzpatrick -0.0213 22 22 16
    23 Jalen Hurts -0.0233 23 27 70
    24 Mac Jones -0.024 24 21 N/A
    25 Taysom Hill -0.0241 25 24 20
    26 Cam Newton -0.0278 26 25 19
    27 Tua Tagovailoa -0.0351 27 26 50
    28 Chad Henne -0.0364 28 28 29
    29 John Wolford -0.0372 29 29 24
    30 Trevor Siemian -0.0382 30 39 N/A
    31 Mike White -0.0382 31 70 N/A
    32 Mason Rudolph -0.0395 32 30 26
    33 Marcus Mariota -0.0398 33 31 27
    34 C.J. Beathard -0.0411 34 32 30
    35 Case Keenum -0.0416 35 33 60
    36 Jeff Driskel -0.0423 36 35 32
    37 Gardner Minshew -0.0423 37 36 33
    38 Kyle Allen -0.0426 38 37 35
    39 Blaine Gabbert -0.0435 39 38 37
    40 Brett Hundley -0.0438 40 39 36
    41 Matt Schaub -0.0439 41 40 38
    42 Josh McCown -0.044 42 41 39
    43 Nathan Peterman -0.0445 43 42 44
    44 Joe Webb -0.0445 44 43 42
    45 Joshua Dobbs -0.0445 45 44 43
    46 Blake Bortles -0.0446 46 45 45
    47 Chase Daniel -0.0446 47 46 40
    48 Sean Mannion -0.0447 48 47 46
    49 AJ McCarron -0.0451 49 48 48
    50 Colt McCoy -0.0452 50 49 51
    51 Matt Barkley -0.0453 51 50 49
    52 Geno Smith -0.0458 52 76 N/A
    53 Nate Sudfeld -0.0462 53 51 52
    54 Garrett Gilbert -0.0464 54 52 54
    55 Josh Rosen -0.0473 55 53 58
    56 Brian Hoyer -0.0473 56 54 59
    57 Jimmy Garoppolo -0.0483 57 78 25
    58 David Blough -0.0484 58 55 61
    59 Chris Streveler -0.0485 59 56 62
    60 Joe Flacco -0.0487 60 57 63
    61 Carson Wentz -0.0493 61 34 81
    62 Tyler Huntley -0.0494 62 58 57
    63 Robert Griffin III -0.0506 63 59 64
    64 Brett Rypien -0.0507 64 60 65
    65 Drew Lock -0.0508 65 61 23
    66 Jarrett Stidham -0.0513 66 62 66
    67 Will Grier -0.0519 67 63 69
    68 Ben DiNucci -0.0525 68 64 68
    69 Nick Mullens -0.054 69 66 72
    70 Alex Smith -0.0544 70 67 74
    71 Andy Dalton -0.0545 71 68 47
    72 Jared Goff -0.0548 72 65 31
    73 Brandon Allen -0.0558 73 69 75
    74 Mike Glennon -0.0575 74 71 73
    75 Trey Lance -0.0577 75 72 N/A
    76 Ryan Finley -0.0581 76 73 77
    77 Nick Foles -0.0585 77 74 76
    78 Zach Wilson -0.0591 78 75 N/A
    79 Cooper Rush -0.0593 79 N/A N/A
    80 Dwayne Haskins -0.0636 80 79 78
    81 Jake Luton -0.0654 81 80 79
    82 Daniel Jones -0.0656 82 77 71
    83 Phillip Walker -0.0668 83 81 67
    84 Mitchell Trubisky -0.0708 84 82 80
    85 Trevor Lawrence -0.0716 85 83 N/A
    86 Sam Darnold -0.0796 86 84 82
    87 Justin Fields -0.0873 87 88 N/A
    88 Davis Mills -0.0952 88 85 N/A
    89 Ben Roethlisberger -0.103 89 86 53
    90 Taylor Heinicke -0.1125 90 87 28

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Off The Charts Podcast: Backup QB Revolution & Week 9 Preview

    Off The Charts Podcast: Backup QB Revolution & Week 9 Preview

    On today’s episode, Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) and Mark Simon (@markasimonsays) welcome Corey March (@corey_march1) back to the show to give a fantasy and gambling perspective on Week 9 of the NFL season. The group opens by looking at the success of backup QBs in Week 8 () before shifting to a recap of the Trade Deadline’s biggest moves (). They then preview the top games of NFL Week 9: Packers-Chiefs (), Titans-Rams (), and Vikings-Ravens () before closing with Scouts vs. Stats on Aaron Rodgers (). Thanks for listening. You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com footballoutsiders.com sportsinfosolutionsblog.com SISDataHub.com

  • Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    By Steven Schwarz

    With just a few hours before kickoff, here are two quick prop plays that come recommended via use of SISBets.com and DraftKings.

    1) Michael Carter, score a touchdown, +160.

    It appears that the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to Michael Carter’s “takeover” of the Jets’ backfield. At SIS, our analysis predicts he’ll get 14 rushing attempts and six targets and will combine for 100 yards (55.5 rushing yards and 44.9 receiving yards) including a 73.3% chance of scoring a touchdown. He has scored in three of the last four games.

    Based on these numbers, Carter should be a -123 favorite to score, but the oddsmakers have him listed at +160.

    2) Jonathan Taylor, over 2.5 receptions, +125. SB -194

    We think of Taylor as a first- and second-down running back with Nyheim Hines as the receiving back, but in 2021, Taylor is doing double-duty. In addition to 15 rushing attempts per game, he’s caught at least three balls in 5-of-8 games this season and four-of-the-last five. SIS data has him getting 4.6 targets and catching 3.4 balls for 37 yards.

    A fair market price would be -194, but the current odds are +125.

  • Top Prop Bet Options for Cardinals-Packers

    Top Prop Bet Options for Cardinals-Packers

    by STEVEN SCHWARZ

    This Thursday Night Football game between the Cardinals and Packers. should be a great matchup, perhaps even a preview of a Divisional Playoff game or Conference Championship. There’s a lot to look forward to as we watch Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers at work.

    But from a gambling perspective, there’s one caveat: Notice that Green Bay receiver odds for both receptions and yards are not available.

    There are too many question marks as of this writing related to who will be catching balls from  Rodgers. His main receiver Davante Adams, is sidelined with a positive Covid-19 test and Allen Lazard, as an unvaccinated close contact, has also been ruled out.

    The biggest question is whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) will be activated from the IR. No Packer is listed for over/under receptions and only tight ends and running back Aaron Jones are listed for receiving yards.

    With that, here are our picks:

    1) Kyler Murray, under 24.5 completions, under -105.

    Murray is playing at an MVP level, but the 24.5 completion level is too high. He has reached that total just twice in seven games and not since Week 3. DraftKings set the odds at -105, but the SIS data analysis predicts 22.5 completions for 244.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. The fair market value for this “under” should be -207.

    2) Zach Ertz, under 3.5 receptions, under -170.

    Ertz, traded from Philadelphia just a week ago, exploded onto the scene with a 47-yard touchdown catch and run and is just what the Cardinals needed. But he is one of many talented pass catchers on this team which includes; DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore. Running back Chase Edmonds also catches the ball well.

    Ertz is likely behind all five players on the target totem pole. Our analysis has Ertz seeing 3.7 targets and catching 2.3 balls for 24 yards. That sets the fair under value at -398, but at DraftKings it’s just -170.

    3) AJ Dillon, over 31.5 rushing yards, over -115.

    Dillon has become a significant part of the Packers running game as the season has progressed. He had 19 touches in the first three games this season, but that number jumped to 39 in the next three contests. The Cardinals have been very good near the goal line, allowing just one rushing touchdown, but they are middle-of-the-road in yards allowed (86.2 ypg). The SIS data expects Dillon to rush for 40.8 yards, well above the 31.5 yards needed for the over.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    Odds –

     

    Quarterback Passing Yards

    ————————————

    Aaron Rodgers, 255.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    Kyler Murray, 276.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Quarterback Passing TDs

    ———————————–

    Aaron Rodgers, over 1.5, TDs, -165/under +125

    Kyler Murray, over 2.5 TDs, +150/under -205

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————-

    Aaron Rodgers, over 0.5, INTs, +160/under -215

    Kyler Murray, over 0.5 INTs, +105/under -140

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Aaron Rodgers, over 24.5, -105/under -125

    Kyler Murray, over 24.5, -125/under -105

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, -120

    Randall Cobb, +225

    Robert Tonyan, +225

    Marquez Valdes-Scantling, +250

    AJ Dillon, +275

    Equanimeous St. Brown, +400

    Aaron Rodgers, +450

    Marcedes Lewis, +750

     

    Arizona –

    James Conner, +100

    DeAndre Hopkins, +110

    Kyler Murray, +140

    Zach Ertz, +175

    Chase Edmonds, +200

    AJ Green, +225

    Christian Kirk, +225

    Rondale Moore, +330

     

    Rushing Yards

    ——————-

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, 59.5, over -115/under -115

    Aaron Rodgers, 9.5, over -110/under -120

    AJ Dillon, 31.5, over -115/under -115

     

    Arizona –

    Chase Edmonds, 44.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    James Conner, 48.5 yards, over -115/under -115

    Kyler Murray, 28.5 yards, over -115/under -115

     

    Receiving Yards

    ———————

    Green Bay –

    Aaron Jones, 33.5, over -125/under -110

    Marcedes Lewis, 18.5, over -110/under -120

    Robert Tonyan, 35.5, over -120/under -110

     

    Arizona –

    AJ Green, 46.5, over -115/under -115

    Chase Edmonds, 22.5, over -115/under -115

    Christian Kirk, 45.5, over -110/under -120

    DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -115/under -115

    Rondale Moore, 3.5, over -110/under -120

    Zach Ertz, 30.5, over -115/under -115

     

    Receptions

    ————–

    Green Bay –

     

    Arizona –

    AJ Green, 3.5, over -135/under +100

    Chase Edmonds, 3.5, over +115/under -150

    Christian Kirk, 3.5, over -160/under +120

    DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -110/under -120

    Rondale Moore, 3.5, over +105/under -140

    Zach Ertz, 3.5, over +130/under -175

     

  • SIS Football Newsletter – Week 7

    SIS Football Newsletter – Week 7

     

    Six weeks are in the books, and with the new 18-week season, this means we have an official one-third marker. Some of the bigger surprises so far include the Chiefs with a pedestrian 3-3 record and the Cardinals as the last remaining unbeaten team.

    Arizona minted an impressive 37-14 road victory against Cleveland (as 3-point underdogs), which vaulted them back into the top spot in the Total Points Power Rankings. Even following a loss to the Titans, it’s the Bills (+550) that DK Sportsbook has given the best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

    Total Points Power Rankings (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1100)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+850)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600)
    4. Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
    5. Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)
    6. Buffalo Bills (+550)
    FEATURED GAME – BENGALS at RAVENS

    The Ravens were so impressive in Week 6 that they earned “winner stays on” treatment. Baltimore disposed of one sophomore phenom QB and will look to do the same with Joe Burrow as they welcome in the upstart Bengals for a divisional showdown.
    Last week, the Ravens were able to take advantage of a weak Chargers run defense (31st in Run Defense Points Saved). Baltimore posted nearly five yards per carry and moved the chains with 14 first downs on the ground. They should see a bit more resistance this week against the 10th-ranked Bengals run defense.

    This season, Cincinnati has either won or lost in nail-biting fashion, while Baltimore’s wins have mainly relied on late-game heroics.

    There’s also a savvy betting trigger favoring Cincinnati, with the majority of bets having come in on Baltimore (55%) while the bulk of money has backed the Bengals (66% per Action Network).

    The Ravens dominated this matchup last season with two wins that went for a combined score of 65-6, but we’re taking the points here and siding with a young Bengals team that has already matched their 2020 win total.

    THE PICK:  BENGALS +6.5

    Optimal Quarterback Play: Assessing Throw Depth vs Accuracy

    It’s no secret that success in today’s NFL is predicated on throwing the football. It should also come as no surprise that deeper throws are more productive than short ones. The least surprising of all is that accurate throws result in bigger gains.
    Aggressive and accurate downfield passing is the key to moving the chains and winning football games.

    The graphic below plots quarterbacks according to their average throw depth and accuracy.
    There are plenty of other factors at play, but it’s interesting to point out that the three teams with the highest average throw depth have a combined record of 13-5 while the three lowest on the chart come in at 4-12.

    Let’s dig in on a few standout QBs:

    Lamar Jackson leads all QBs with an average throw depth of 9.9 yards. He has been criticized for his inaccuracy in the past but has padded his aggressive play this season with the seventh best on-target throw rate (80%).

    Side note: Jackson also ranks seventh in rushing yards and first in missed tackles forced.

    Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater are the other two QBs who rank top-10 in both metrics. Wilson is a regular on this leaderboard, but few expected this from Bridgewater who has the reputation of an accurate, albeit conservative passer.

    Among 35 qualified passers, Bridgewater ranked last in average throw depth in 2019 and 27th in 2020. He now ranks fourth, which seems like a product of the Pat Schurmur offense after Drew Lock led the league in average throw depth last season.

    Target Acquired: Cornerbacks allowing the most production

    Last week we discussed the fantasy value of looking below the surface for stats that provide an advantage over the competition. Many DFS players are influenced by generic stats like the “opponent position rank” you’ll find on the DraftKings lineup page, but there’s more specific data out there that can provide contest-winning insight.

    We started by dissecting fantasy points allowed by offensive position, and this week we’ll dig into a few cornerbacks who are getting picked on by opposing offenses.

    Anthony Averrett
    Team: Baltimore Ravens
    Alignment: Left side of the offense (78%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Targeted on a league-high 43 passes.
    • Primary defender on 17% of passes against Baltimore.
    • Allowed a league-high seven completions of 15+ air yards
    • Allowed 67 PPR fantasy points (third-most)

    Matchup: Ja’Marr Chase ($6,200 on DK) has lined up on the left side of the offense on 70% of his snaps, which will put him opposite Averett on the majority of his routes this weekend. When on the field, Chase has seen a team-high 25% target share and he leads all receivers with eight deep ball receptions.

    Brandin Echols
    Team: New York Jets
    Alignment: Left side of the offense (100%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Primary defender on 19% of passes against New York (next highest is 12%)
    • Allowing 1.6 yards per coverage snap (third-worst)

    Matchup: Nelson Agholor has lined up on the left side of the offense on 70% of his snaps, which means he’ll draw the most coverage against Echols on Sunday. Agholor hasn’t provided much fantasy production this season, but at $3,700 on DK, he’s worth consideration if you’re looking for a budget WR.

    Xavien Howard
    Team: Miami Dolphins
    Alignment: Right side of the offense (73%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Primary defender on 16% of passes against Miami
    • Allowed a league-high 71 PPR fantasy points
    • Allowed a league-high four touchdowns
    • Allowing 14.7 yards per reception (10th-highest)

    Matchup: It’s shocking for Howard to appear here after finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2020. Howard plays a fair amount on the left side, but it’s reasonable to expect him to primarily shadow Calvin Ridley on Sunday given their lack of other wide receiver options. Many still associate Howard with last season’s dominance and therefore will not consider Ridley for their lineups, making him a contrarian play at a season-low price tag of $6,600 on DK.
    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS DataHub Pro: The uncontested best research tool in the game. Sign up for a free seven-day trial to test drive this luxury vehicle. The SIS DataHub Pro has countless proprietary NFL and CFB stats, and dozens of advanced filters.
    • Sharp Football: Back at it with three more QB prop bets to target this week!
    • Week 7 Betting Opportunities: Alex Vigderman used SIS data to break downs three intriguing games to bet on this weekend.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 6 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 7.
  • Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    By BRYCE ROSSLER

    “The league will figure him out this year.”

    That was how anonymous league personnel chose to besmirch NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in an ESPN story this past offseason. Of course, this sentiment was as toothless as the shadowy figures who made it, and what was already a disqualifying thought looks even worse with Jackson once again playing at an MVP level. 

    Jackson’s excellence is nothing new, and neither is the ugly reality that black quarterbacks are held to a higher standard than their white counterparts.

    Codified language and dog whistling pervade discussions of Jackson’s game. The notion that he’s just a scrambler could be called a common misconception were it not for the fact that such a label is often deliberate and made in bad faith. Some even refer to Jackson as a ‘running back,’ which is football-illiterate at best and racist at worst.

    If you don’t believe me, consider how differently Jackson’s 2018 classmate Josh Allen has been talked about. Some of the criticism that still dogs the former applied to the latter earlier in his career. Allen was regarded as an inaccurate gunslinger who struggled to read the field and play within structure. 

    In 2021, Allen and Jackson both rank in the top five in both designed QB runs and scrambles, but Allen is worse than Jackson in adjusted time to throw, turnover-worthy play rate, and virtually every accuracy metric.

    And yet, so many were ready to accept that Allen was suddenly good after one (1) Pro Bowl season, despite struggling mightily at both the college and NFL levels until that point. Why, then, do some people continue to levy similar criticisms at a former Heisman winner and NFL MVP?

    Regardless, it would be a disservice to Jackson to focus on one specific player comparison. Through six games, Jackson ranks 2nd among all players in Total Points, 6th in Passing Total Points (5th on a per-play basis), and 5th in Rushing Total Points (and that includes running backs). And while it’s important to note that he’s outdueling many of his peers, he’s also outdoing himself.

    Jackson ranks in the top six in both Passing Total Points and Rushing Total Points.

    The Ravens signal-caller is performing even better than he did during his MVP season. His On-Target +/- rate is +3.4%, which ranks 7th in the league and is up more than a full percentage point from 2019 (+2.3%). 

    For those unfamiliar, that stat measures a quarterback’s accuracy taking into account the difficulty of the throw, including factors like distance, pressure, and coverage.

    Jackson’s turnover-worthy throw rate has slightly increased from 2019 (1.7%) to 2021 (2.1%), and that’s meaningful because that’s a couple potential extra turnovers a season. But he’s still among the ten best in this metric despite having gotten more aggressive about throwing deep and attacking the middle of the field, two danger areas for quarterbacks. His league-leading average depth of target (9.9) is up more than a full yard over 2019, and 59% of his passes have hit in the middle of the field, compared to 56% in 2019. And in case you were wondering, he’s still top ten at protecting the football across all touches if we include fumbles.

    He’s also operating with improved timing. While Jackson’s playstyle will never lend itself to a low adjusted time-to-throw stat, he’s getting the ball out 0.10 seconds faster than he did in 2020, the first year SIS began collecting snap to throw times. The average person rarely ever thinks about time in fractions of a second, but a split second is a long time in a game of inches While Jackson has never really struggled with seeing the field, this could be seen as a sign that he’s processing faster than he did before. 

    Of course, Jackson has never really had a problem playing from the pocket. He ranked 4th in 2019 in Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps from the pocket (13.7) and has continued that trend this year, ranking 5th (14.0).

    So, regardless of what your perception of these baselines was coming into this season, there’s a lot of statistical evidence to support the idea that Jackson, at age 24, is still improving. Furthermore, he’s just generally been more efficient than he was during his MVP campaign. His Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps has improved from 13.1 in 2019 (which ranked 5th) to 15.3 this year (4th).

    Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that he’s still arguably the most dynamic runner in the league. His broken + missed tackle rate of 33% comfortably leads the league by five percentage points, but I don’t want to harp too much on his running ability because Jackson is so much more than just a runner. 

    Jackson is one of the game’s brightest young stars and a legitimate dual-threat who is beating teams with his arm and his legs, both inside and outside of structure. He can hurt you from the pocket or on the move, and he’s a threat on designed runs and scrambles alike. Put simply: he’s damn hard to stop.

    There. I just figured Lamar Jackson out.

  • New Off The Charts: What Has The Most Watchability?

    New Off The Charts: What Has The Most Watchability?

    On today’s episode, Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) and Alex Vigderman (@vigmanoncampus) do a thorough review of NFL Week 6 and look ahead to Week 7.

    First up on the topics list is a Total Points Power Ranking (), followed by a closer look at the go-for-it approach of the Bills against the Titans ().

    Matt and Alex then discuss the staying power of the Cardinals, Bengals, and Raiders ().

    The guys then preview Ravens-Bengals (), Titans-Chiefs (), Eagles-Raiders (), and Saints-Seahawks (), with a focus on the game elements with the highest watchability factor.

    We close with another Scouts vs Stats take on which NFL broadcasters provide the most interesting insight in each area ().

  • SIS Football Newsletter – Week 6

    SIS Football Newsletter – Week 6

    by COREY MARCH

    The Bills prevailed in last week’s heavyweight matchup against the Chiefs by exposing their soft defense. As a result, Buffalo (+250) jumped ahead of Kansas City (+350) as the favorites to win the AFC per DK Sportsbook.

    According to this week’s Weekly Total Points StatPack, the Chiefs are the league’s worst defense. Arizona defended their unblemished record but it wasn’t enough to hold off Tampa Bay from swooping in to claim the title as “#1 Team in Total Points”.

    Total Points Power Rankings (Top-5):

    1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    2. Arizona Cardinals
    3. Buffalo Bills
    4. Los Angeles Rams
    5. Denver Broncos

    > If you like the SIS Football Newsletter, subscribe to have it emailed to you each week.

    FEATURED GAME – CHARGERS at RAVENS

    Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are each coming off spectacular Week 5 performances, complete with late game heroics. The Chargers and Ravens each sit at 4-1 and are favorites to win two of the most hotly-contested divisions. Both teams have had to overcome fourth quarter deficits in four-of-five games, so depending on who you ask, their impressive records are either lucky or that much more impressive.

    The Ravens had their record-tying streak of 43 straight 100-yard rushing games snapped last week. This is an opportunity to get their running game back on track against a Chargers run defense that ranks last in several key categories including 158 yards per game and 3.4 average yards before contact. There are a few betting indicators to follow here, too. The public is all over LAC with 80% of tickets coming in on the underdog (per Action Network). This game also falls into an age-old betting trap: a 1:00pm start for a west coast team.

    THE PICK:  RAVENS -2.5


    Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady: A Tale of Two Aging QBs

    Rewind to Week 13 last season. The Steelers entered with a perfect record and some expectation they would finish the regular season that way. The Buccaneers limped into their bye at 7-5, losers of three of their last four, and fresh off a defeat against the Chiefs where they surrendered 269 receiving yards to Tyreek Hill.

    My how things have changed.

    After their undefeated 11-0 start, the Steelers have gone 3-8 in their last 11 games leading up to today.

    Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 13-1 over that span, which included seven consecutive wins out of their bye that culminated in a Super Bowl title.

    The driving force between these two diverging teams has been their quarterback play.

    44-year-old Tom Brady has led the league by a wide margin with 146 Passing Points Earned, while the opposite is true for 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger, who has distanced himself in last at minus-21.

    Roethlisberger and Brady had produced similar results through the first 12 weeks last season, but it’s been a much different story from that point forward.

    Weeks 1-12 (2020)
    Ben:   49% Positive Play Rate  |  23% Boom Rate  |  14% Bust Rate
    Tom:  49% Positive Play Rate  |  25% Boom Rate  |  13% Bust Rate

    Weeks 13-Playoffs (2020), Weeks 1-5 (2021)
    Ben:   44% Positive Play Rate  |  17% Boom Rate  |  17% Bust Rate
    Tom:  53% Positive Play Rate  |  28% Boom Rate  |  13% Bust Rate

    Their willingness to throw downfield has also set them apart. Dating back to last season, Brady has thrown past the sticks on a robust 49% of his throws, while Roethlisberger checks in at just 39% (NFL avg = 41%).

    Despite being five years his elder, it appears Brady has a lot more left in the tank than Big Ben.


    PPR Points Allowed by Position

    In today’s competitive fantasy football space, it’s no longer enough to broadly categorize an opposing defense as “good” or “bad” based on the total numbers of yards or points allowed.

    We have the capability to slice and dice data to generate splits that give us all kinds of deeper insight.

    Here we will look at total PPR fantasy points allowed through the air, broken down by four position groups: Slot Receivers, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends, and Running Backs in that order:

    Highlighted are the teams that have allowed the most and fewest points by position group. For example, WFT has allowed the most points to Slot Receivers, while Buffalo has allowed the fewest.

    An interesting takeaway from looking at the numbers is the percentage of PPR points scored by each position group:

    • Slot: 35%
    • Wide: 26%
    • TE: 21%
    • RB: 18%
    More from the SIS community
    • Sharp Football: Back at it with three more QB prop bets to target this week, plus a bonus pick you won’t want to miss for Monday Night Football.
    • Most Valuable CB: Trevon Diggs is catching a lot of attention (and footballs), but he isn’t the most valuable cornerback in the league – learn who is and why.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 5 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 6.
  • World’s #1 QB: Justin Herbert Makes His Move

    World’s #1 QB: Justin Herbert Makes His Move

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    Earlier this week, Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus tweeted the names of nine quarterbacks that everyone should have in their Top 10 QB list.

    SIS’s World’s #1 QB Rankings differ slightly from that list, but that’s partly due to some extenuating circumstances.

    Here’s where we stand after Week 5:

    SIS World’s #1 Quarterback Rankings Through Week 5 2021

    1. Patrick Mahomes
    2. Tom Brady
    3. Aaron Rodgers
    4. Kirk Cousins
    5. Lamar Jackson (up by 1)
    6. Justin Herbert (up by 2)
    7. Josh Allen (up by 2)
    8. Deshaun Watson (down by 3)
    9. Matthew Stafford (up by 1)
    10. Russell Wilson (down by 3)
    11. Kyler Murray (up by 1)
    …
    14. Dak Prescott

    A reminder that The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average (PAA), which is the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight

     

    As the model looks at multiple years of data, availability plays a big part in a player’s ranking. That explains why Russell Wilson fell a bit (and will continue to fall through his injury absence). Dak Prescott has the same fate, thanks to his 2020 shoulder injury. And we know the story with Deshaun Watson, who has slowly dropped down the rankings as the season has gone on.

    Kirk Cousins crashes the party at 4, which we probably understand is overstating his talent relative to the names behind him, but is reflective of a consistency in availability and performance that he hadn’t attained previously.

    Given recent returns, it’s very likely that Cousins’ hold on that 4 spot isn’t long for this world. We have already written about Lamar Jackson’s big year in this space, and he went ahead in Week 5 and had his best game by Points Above Average since his MVP season. Throwing for more than 10 yards per attempt on 40 attempts with four touchdowns and no interceptions will do that for you.

    Justin Herbert is the next name to have crashed the preseason top 10. He’s posted two of the five best starts of his (admittedly brief) career in just the last three games, trailing only Jackson and Cousins in Passing PAA in that span. He hasn’t been quite as hyper-efficient as Jackson, but his 128.5 Independent Quarterback Rating since Week 3, and that’s with more attempts than all but one of the players with a similarly impressive rating (that darn Tom Brady…).

    Conveniently enough, Herbert and Jackson face off in Baltimore in Week 6, so expect to see some fireworks.

    Another thing to watch out for this week is the fight for the #1 spot. Patrick Mahomes has quickly lost his strangehold on the position after poor performances in two of his last four games, leaving him vulnerable to being supplanted this week (that darn Tom Brady…).

    In case you are curious, here are the complete rankings through Week 5. We’re using Points Above Average per 60 snaps to give a sense for what each player’s weekly average is; in essence, the number of points he contributes above an average QB in each start.

    Player PAA/60 Rk Last Start of Season
    Patrick Mahomes 6.65 1 1 2
    Tom Brady 6.60 2 2 3
    Aaron Rodgers 5.30 3 3 1
    Kirk Cousins 4.63 4 4 9
    Lamar Jackson 4.57 5 6 12
    Justin Herbert 4.06 6 8 10
    Josh Allen 3.75 7 9 6
    Deshaun Watson 3.28 8 5 4
    Matthew Stafford 3.20 9 10 14
    Russell Wilson 2.96 10 7 5
    Kyler Murray 2.45 11 12 15
    Derek Carr 2.33 12 11 7
    Teddy Bridgewater 1.67 13 13 18
    Dak Prescott 0.71 14 14 17
    Ryan Tannehill 0.46 15 15 8
    Matt Ryan 0.39 16 16 11
    Baker Mayfield -0.47 17 17 13
    Jacoby Brissett -0.85 18 24 21
    Ryan Fitzpatrick -0.94 19 18 16
    Jameis Winston -0.99 20 22 55
    Tyrod Taylor -1.00 21 19 56
    Joe Burrow -1.19 22 21 22
    Taysom Hill -1.22 23 20 20
    Mac Jones -1.39 24 25 N/A
    Cam Newton -1.45 25 23 19
    John Wolford -2.15 26 27 24
    Daniel Jones -2.19 27 28 71
    Jimmy Garoppolo -2.21 28 29 25
    Jalen Hurts -2.22 29 26 70
    Mason Rudolph -2.34 30 30 26
    Marcus Mariota -2.35 31 31 27
    Chad Henne -2.38 32 32 29
    C.J. Beathard -2.44 33 33 30
    Geno Smith -2.49 34 41 N/A
    Jeff Driskel -2.50 35 35 32
    Gardner Minshew -2.51 36 36 33
    Kyle Allen -2.56 37 37 35
    Tua Tagovailoa -2.59 38 38 50
    Blaine Gabbert -2.60 39 39 37
    Brett Hundley -2.62 40 40 36
    Matt Schaub -2.63 41 41 38
    Josh McCown -2.63 42 42 39
    Chase Daniel -2.67 43 43 40
    Nathan Peterman -2.67 44 44 44
    Joe Webb -2.67 45 45 42
    Joshua Dobbs -2.67 46 46 43
    Blake Bortles -2.68 47 47 45
    Sean Mannion -2.68 48 48 46
    AJ McCarron -2.72 49 49 48
    Matt Barkley -2.72 50 50 49
    Colt McCoy -2.73 51 51 51
    Nate Sudfeld -2.80 52 52 52
    Garrett Gilbert -2.80 53 53 54
    Tyler Huntley -2.83 54 54 57
    Josh Rosen -2.87 55 55 58
    Brian Hoyer -2.89 56 56 59
    Case Keenum -2.92 57 57 60
    Jared Goff -2.93 58 34 31
    David Blough -2.96 59 59 61
    Chris Streveler -2.96 60 60 62
    Joe Flacco -2.99 61 61 63
    Robert Griffin III -3.08 62 62 64
    Drew Lock -3.11 63 63 23
    Brett Rypien -3.12 64 64 65
    Jarrett Stidham -3.17 65 65 66
    Carson Wentz -3.17 66 74 81
    Phillip Walker -3.19 67 66 67
    Will Grier -3.20 68 67 69
    Ben DiNucci -3.22 69 68 68
    Nick Mullens -3.35 70 69 72
    Alex Smith -3.41 71 70 74
    Andy Dalton -3.43 72 71 47
    Brandon Allen -3.50 73 73 75
    Nick Foles -3.68 74 75 76
    Mike Glennon -3.68 75 72 73
    Ryan Finley -3.70 76 76 77
    Trey Lance -3.82 77 58 N/A
    Dwayne Haskins -3.98 78 77 78
    Zach Wilson -4.16 79 78 N/A
    Jake Luton -4.19 80 80 79
    Mitchell Trubisky -4.47 81 82 80
    Davis Mills -5.30 82 86 N/A
    Trevor Lawrence -5.36 83 84 N/A
    Sam Darnold -5.39 84 81 82
    Justin Fields -5.81 85 85 N/A
    Ben Roethlisberger -6.07 86 83 53
    Taylor Heinicke -6.13 87 79 28