On this episode of Off The Charts, Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) and John Todd (@therealjohntodd) review Week 3’s excitement and preview some of the most notable games of Week 4. Topics covered include:

Peyton and Eli Manning discussing man vs zone (1:05)

The struggles of rookie QBs Justin Fields and Zach Wilson (3:49)

The Jimmy Garroppolo/Trey Lance situation (6:58)

Kirk Cousins looks really good (12:05),

The Cowboys are good, but maybe not as good as we thought (14:04)

Better than they’ve shown – Seahawks and Chiefs (15:49)

Go for 2 when up by 7? (19:18)

Browns running back excellence (24:35)

Patriots/Bucs (25:51)

Rams/Cardinals (28:39)

Raiders/Chargers (32:58)

Ravens/Broncos (36:43)

Panthers/Cowboys (37:16)

Colts/Dolphins (37:39),

And the CB against whom QBs are struggling! (39:33)

Thanks for listening. Check out the SIS DataHub to help you go deeper and access the data you need to win.

Please rate and review us if you can. Stay safe and stay well.

By MARK SIMON AND ALEX VIGDERMAN
In the last season-plus, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has bounced around The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings a lot. He’s been as high as No. 4 and as low as No. 18. He ended the 2020 regular season at No. 8 but slipped to No. 12 to start 2021 after a rough game against the Bills in the AFC Divisional Round.

But he’s again gained ground after two strong starts to begin the 2021 season. Jackson’s now No. 7 after moving up five spots following a win over the Chiefs.

A reminder that The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, which as we previously noted is the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

The current Top 8 are

1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Tom Brady
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Deshaun Watson
5. Derek Carr (up 3)
6. Russell Wilson (down 1)
7. Lamar Jackson (up 5)
8. Justin Herbert (up 1)

A weird week for QB performances

Quarterback performances weren’t quite as impressive in Week 2 as they were in Week 1. Jackson’s was the second-best game by Points Above Average (PAA) for any quarterback last week, but eight games from Week 1 were better than Jackson’s.

By PAA, Daniel Jones had the best game in Week 2 (he had the third-highest percentage of catchable passes AND rushed for 95 yards). Jacoby Brissett, who came on after Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, ranked fourth, despite his team getting shut out. Brissett was 11-of-13 on third down and had the second-most Points Earned of any quarterback in those situations last week. He also gets credit for playing behind an offensive line that blew double-digit blocks in the passing game.

Weird week.

Top 8 maneuvering

The other big move among the Top 8 belonged to Derek Carr, who jumped three spots past Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, and Kirk Cousins. Carr had the third-highest PAA in Week 2 and continues to justify a ranking that is higher than many probably expected.

Allen’s drop from No. 6 to No. 10 is odd considering that his Bills beat the Dolphins, 35-0. Allen had the worst PAA showing for a starting quarterback who won in Week 2 (Justin Fields ranked lower but he didn’t start).

However, Allen completed only 17-of-33 passes. His percentage of passes that were catchable was second-lowest among quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts during the week (62%).

The kids (and some vets) were not alright

Speaking of Fields, Week 2 did a number on rookie quarterbacks, who had three of the four worst games last week by PAA (Matt Ryan was the lone veteran with them). As such, Fields (No. 79), Zach Wilson (No. 82), and Trevor Lawrence (No. 84) have long climbs ahead to respectability in these rankings.

Youngsters on the rise include Jones, who is now at No. 42 after a 25-spot jump and Justin Herbert, who moved up one spot into the Top 8.

Ryan continued to plummet, dropping to No. 17 as his Falcons are now 0-2. And Ben Roethlisberger, who has admitted he needs to be much, much better, now ranks No. 77. That’s a 24-spot drop since the start of the season.

The full rankings are below.

BY JAMES RODRIGUEZ

As we continue our series of articles on football injuries, I want to focus on two athletes that have different injury histories, production, and playing style. I will use one athlete’s injury-riddled campaign to guide a thought process for a current athlete battling a comparable injury.

We must begin with an anatomy lesson, and I promise I will keep this brief: 

The most common muscle groups injured are the groin, hamstring, quads, and calves. These lower-body muscles are susceptible to injury because they are long muscles that span the length of 2 joints. 

These muscles generate a tremendous amount of force to accelerate, run, jump, and cut. With all that power, these muscles can easily become tight, which makes them susceptible to strain under stresses that lengthen them. That is about as basic as I can sum it up for the purposes of this article.  

Keep in mind that these posts are written to be transferred and applied to other players not specifically highlighted. They are to be a guide on how to approach a situation. 

Exhibit A: Julio Jones. 

He is one of the best wide receivers to ever grace a football field. In addition to his accolades, he has played in at least 13 games in 8 of his 10 seasons. The exceptions are his third season when he broke his foot and last year when he tried to manage a hamstring injury. 

My most recent article went into depth on hamstring injuries and this situation will buffer that research-based take. Jones initially injured his hamstring during Week 2, 2020.

This is a breakdown of his 2020 campaign: 

Week 3– Out

Week 4- Reaggravates and limited to 21% of the snaps

Week 5– Out

Week 6-9- Very productive and effective

Week 10- Bye

Week 11- Reaggravates and limited to 36% of the snaps

Week 12- Out

Week 13– Effective return but subsequently shut down for the remainder of the season

Jones did prove that he could play with the muscle strain, but it was the management of it and the unpredictability of his performances that was so frustrating to fans. As previously discussed in our last article, the biggest risk factor for a hamstring strain is a history of a hamstring strain. 

That can be extrapolated to other muscles as well.

Which leads us into Exhibit B: Curtis Samuel.

If Jones was the apples in my metaphor, allow me to introduce Samuel as the oranges. And yes, I understand that these are two different injuries. Samuels’ being the groin and Jones’ being the hamstring, but they are both muscles and they follow the same tissue regeneration principles. We will use one athlete’s recovery to help explain our determination of how to handle the other. 

Samuel initially suffered his groin strain mid-June and slowly worked his way back to a full  practice by September 6 with the anticipation that he would be ready to play by Week 1. Two days later, he reaggravated his groin and was placed on IR. That is 12 weeks that the training staff was preparing Samuel for his eventual return only to have their plans foiled. 

Research states that a reaggravation of the initial injury can make the subsequent rehab duration longer by up to 30%. If that is the case, this recovery could take 12 to 16 weeks which would completely neutralize any value this season.

I don’t expect his recovery to take that long, but I also don’t anticipate him returning after the completion of his IR stint in Week 4.

Fantasy Ramifications

As he continues to progress through his rehab, reports will be glowing about his readiness to play. I caution you during this time as I will refer you to the story of Jones last season. 

If you had Jones on your team last year, you remember the frustrations of handling this situation. You likely played him on the weeks where he couldn’t finish the game because, well, he’s JULIO JONES. And you probably benefited from a mere 4 of his 6 productive games last season because he burned you in the others. 

You may grab Curtis to roster him, but the chances of you playing him his first week back are unfortunately lower than the chances of him reaggravating his injury.

If you have the roster flexibility at the time reports of Samuel’s return postulate, he can be your midseason flyer. If you are in a situation, where you need your roster spots to manage the bye weeks or you need a win to make the playoffs, he doesn’t need to be on your roster.

Best of luck to those athlete’s recoveries and to our fantasy teams as we negotiate the everchanging landscape.

By JAMES RODRIGUEZ

So, your top fantasy player experienced a hamstring strain, and his team is being coy about the details of his injury. In addition to their discretion, they refuse to give a timetable of his return and insist on keeping him questionable week after week impacting your ability to make a sound decision.

Do you play your star player and watch him be pulled after a series or do you sit him on your bench to watch him have a monster game? Wouldn’t it be easier if the team used one of their injured reserve spots to make your decision for you? If you’ve played fantasy football before, this is a predicament that we all know too well.

Don’t fret, for SIS is here to provide you with information to give you confidence about your injury decisions.

Let me get this disclaimer out of the way. As a Physical Therapist, I trust that the team and medical staff have the player’s best interest in mind when it comes to the rehab process and a safe return to play. Re-injury is a legitimate concern that teams must be cautious and aware of. They don’t need to concern themselves with our fantasy teams when releasing practice reports.

That’s where this article come into play. Thinks of this as your coach’s tendency sheet to make the right play call. I will share some research with you and give my opinion about the matter.

Hamstrings

The focus of today is hamstring strains.

According to research, 1/3 of all injuries are muscle related and the most common muscle involved are hamstrings. SIS has been tracking the data since 2018 and estimates that 15.5% of injuries involve lower-body muscles. Of that, the highest percentage involve the hamstrings at 7.8% which is supported by clinical data.

ACL tears, ankle dislocations, and Achilles tears are detrimental injuries, but we know how to handle these situations. It’s the nagging muscle strains that keep players out of the lineup without much clarity for weeks at a time.

Although each injury is unique, that doesn’t mean we cannot use observations and reported information to help us navigate the situation.

It is important that a short period of immobilization occurs to limit the overall damage. This means that it is important to be aware of any player that attempts to return to play after a “pull.” That immediate return could increase the damage which would lengthen the overall timeframe.

It may be frustrating to see a team be so cautious about a player’s return and make minimal progress throughout the rehab process but that is because, much like movie sequels, re-injuries are often worse than the original.

On average, a re-injury can take 30% longer to recover than the initial injury. In addition to that, the highest risk factor for a hamstring strain is a previous history of a hamstring strain.

As an example, a player that could have returned in three weeks but reaggravates their injury during Week 2, will take an additional four weeks to return. That puts them at six weeks total, doubling the original timeframe.

So, be patient with the teams that are being patient with their players, because I’d rather have my player back in my lineup with more confidence that they are in fact “ready.”

Let’s say you hear that your player underwent an MRI to assess the extent of the injury. You may be thinking, “that can’t be good.” Initial instincts suggest that but there is good evidence out there to get imaging performed as soon as possible to assess the extent of the damage.

And if the team uses MRIs throughout the rehab process, they are monitoring the athlete’s response to training so you can feel more confident in the eventual return to play.

To wrap this all up, as a Physical Therapist, I would plan on keeping that injured player on my bench until he completes a full game of action without any reports or visual signs of reaggravation.

To wrap this all up, as a Physical Therapist, I would plan on keeping that injured player on my bench until he completes a full game of action without any reports or visual signs of reaggravation.

If I hear a cautionary report stating that the athlete experienced a hiccup during the rehab, I will look to trade him away because I anticipate that this is going to be an ongoing issue.

Unfortunately, more injuries will occur and with that, more questions will arise. We’ll try to answer some of them here.

Recap

This is the final article in our series of pieces imagining an NFL Expansion Draft scenario.

In our first article, we laid out Protection Lists for each NFL team. In the following article, we detailed my picks with analysis and featured all 21 roster submissions we received.

Before we get into how the team would do based on our numbers, here’s a reminder of who I picked with the picks by NFL team and the projected depth chart.

Pick-by-Pick

Projected Depth Chart

(click to enlarge)

How Would This Team Do?

Alex Vigderman, Lead Football Researcher at SIS, crunched the numbers to see how our team would fare.

Obviously this team doesn’t have a real schedule, so he assumed their strength of schedule to be league-wide average at .500. He used WAR per snap from the last three seasons to project each player’s WAR for this season and used a Marcel-based system where he weighted 2020 performance as a 5, 2019 as a 3, and 2018 as a 1.

Additionally, he regressed everyone by one full season’s worth of replacement-level snaps both to downweight small-sample performances and to account for everyone being on a new team.

When all the numbers were crunched, this team would accumulate 9.1 expected wins in a 17-game season based on SIS-WAR.

While this may not make the playoffs, the team is competitive and does have a chance. An above .500 record would be a major win for an expansion team and something to build upon for the future.

Looking on an individual level, the top five players in Total WAR for this hypothetical season are: 

1) Teddy Bridgewater 

2) Carlton Davis 

3) Bryce Callahan 

4) Adam Theilen 

5) Chase Winovich. 

Out of the 56 players I had getting snaps during the season, 46 players finished with a positive WAR.

While I would love to assume all of my starters will play 100% of the snaps, we based snap counts on last year’s, making adjustments as to whether they would get more or less playing time on this team based on the projected depth chart, and also took into account that if a player has an injury history, they would likely miss time.

Looking Ahead

When looking at this roster, the focus was put into building a strong defense that can rush the passer and cover on the back end, and an offense that is strong along the offensive line. 

This team was assembled with a win-now mentality, but also with a look ahead to the future. With this roster, the team could go out and compete right away, but it also has the flexibility to make changes after Year 1, if needed. As it currently stands with these 64 players under contract, the team has just over $8 million of cap space.

There are some things to consider moving forward. 

First, some of the middle to back-end of the roster will likely be traded to accumulate future draft picks. The team automatically is given the No. 2 overall pick in the next draft, so using early picks and gaining more is definitely a priority. 

Additionally, a 16-man practice squad means there are still 5 spots that would need to be filled. That means the waiver wire will be watched closely and unsigned UDFAs will be signed to compete in camp and eventually fill out the practice squad.

Of the current roster, only 37 players are under contract for 2022. The 2022 Salary Cap ceiling has been set at $208.2 million, which leaves the team with more than $56.7 million in cap space going into the 2022 offseason. 

With a rookie salary pool that will cost approximately $16 million for 10 draftees, that leaves about $40 million to re-sign some key free agents, make a splash on one big UFA, and then fill out the back end of the roster. The team will definitely become much younger beginning in 2022.

If this was your team, how happy would you be with it? How well do you think they’ll do?

Tweet us at @sportsinfo_SIS and @ncoopdraft  and let us know