By now you’ve probably scanned the traditional NFL stats compiled by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Maybe you’ve even perused Pro Football Focus’ grades, or tried to dig in on the NFL’s Next Gen Stats site. We’re all trying to understand, first, how it is that these teams emerged from the […]
With a dearth of sports to bet on during this global pandemic, gamblers are undoubtedly desperate for something to bet on. Ordinarily, I’d use that as an explanation for this stat, which comes via Syracuse.com… “According to Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt, there are more bets on [Josh] Allen to win MVP right now than any other player … […]
The NFL, as we hear every year after the Super Bowl, is a copycat league. More often than not, teams will emulate the Super Bowl champion as they try to build out their organization. Winning the Lombardi Trophy is the ultimate goal, so why not steal ideas from the team that actually does it? This […]
The way the two teams in this year’s Super Bowl made it this far couldn’t be any more different. The Chiefs are only one year removed from an overtime loss in the AFC Championship, and rode one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks to the Super Bowl. The 49ers are only one year removed […]
Listen to any football coach talk about which aspects of the game matter most and they’ll undoubtedly bring up performance on third downs and in the red zone. Statistically speaking, those parts of the game are the most susceptible to noise. If projecting performance over a full season, performance on first and second down will […]
Over the last few years, the statistically-inclined football community has gotten really interested in pressure and how it relates to quarterback play. Of course, pressure often leads to sacks, but it also leads to off-platform throws. Intuitively, throws from a stable base are more likely to be accurate than throws where, above everything else, you’re […]
Earlier this year, we introduced the Total Points metric at FootballOutsiders.com. This stat was created to assess player value based on what a player is truly responsible for, using charting data and the Expected Points framework.