On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Coastal Carolina (@CoastalBaseball) outfielder Parker Chavers (@pchavers14). Parker was a preseason All-American and a two-time All-Sun Belt conference selection who missed the start of 2020 due to a shoulder injury. Prior to the injury he was ranked among college baseball’s top outfielders and was particularly praised for his arm strength. He’s viewed as anywhere from a Top 50 to Top 100 selection in this week’s MLB Draft.
Parker talks about how he’s feeling with the draft upcoming (2:16), what went into developing his arm and what has gone into rehabbing his torn labrum (2:31). He provides a self-scouting report on his defense, his hitting approach, and his power (6:58). He also explains why he models his game after Andrew Benintendi and Adam Eaton (10:55) and praises the coaches who helped him get to this point (13:17).
Mark is also joined by SIS Video Scout Associates Brandon Tew (@BrandonTeweets) and Corey Leaden (@cleaden24) (15:37). They dissect the top seven college baseball prospects in the draft, from first baseman Spencer Torkelson to outfielder Heston Kjerstad and pitcher Reid Detmers (18:56). They also provide tips to anyone looking to evaluate college baseball players (32:16).
The Sports Info Solutions Video Scouts recently conducted a two-round mock draft in conjunction with SIS’ college draft prospects series. Below is the two rounds of picks, along with a brief explanation on why each pick makes sense for that team (and links to scouting reports we’ve created on the top seven college prospects). While expected draft position is taken into account, picks are more so based on each team’s recent draft strategy, farm system composition and overall competitive outlook over the next few years.
While taking a first baseman at #1 is not typically the norm (Adrian Gonzalez, 2000), Torkelson’s plus hit and power tools that play to all fields are too tantalizing to pass up for Detroit.
Martin provides positional versatility. Having the opportunity to pair Adley Rutschman would gives the Orioles a huge boost of talent with two guys that can potentially be your No. 2 and No. 3 hitters for years to come.
The Marlins nab the the best fastball-slider combo (both plus-plus) in the draft in a dominant, sturdy SEC lefty. Lacy offers true ace potential to an already deep Marlins farm system, with his fastball that averages greater than 20″ of vertical movement, well above major league average.
Selected by Adam Sinkoe
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
4
Royals
Zac Veen
OF
Spruce Creek HS (FL)
With a plethora of promising young pitching prospects acquired in recent drafts, the Royals will use their early first round pick to take a high-upside high school bat for the second year in a row.
The Blue Jays have spent 7 of their last 8 first round picks on college players. They continue that trend by selecting the high floor, high ceiling SEC right-hander. With a plus fastball, three above-average secondary pitches and ideal size size, Hancock has the makings of a future ace.
Selected by Evan Dennis
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
6
Mariners
Max Meyer
RHP
Minnesota
With his combination of high-90s fastball and plus-plus slider, Meyer already has the stuff to be an MLB reliever this season if needed. Though lacking in size at just 6’0″ and 185 lbs, Meyer has shown he can be an effective starter, could project as a future front-line starter for the Mariners.
Pittsburgh couldn’t pass on the leader in home runs, runs, RBI, and total bases in all of college baseball through the 2020 shortened season. Gonzales will hope to join Kevin Newman in Pittsburgh to form a solid hitting duo in the middle of the infield for years to come.
The Padres should add to their minor league pitching depth with Detmers. He has a three-pitch mix with a devastating breaking ball. Detmers has the ability to become a front-to-mid rotation starter with his strong and durable frame.
Selected by Danny Jimenez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
9
Rockies
Robert Hassell
OF
Independence (TN)
The best pure hitter in the 2020 prep class Hassell has all the tools to be a solid MLB player and even a star. With a sweet lefty swing and an already advanced approach at the plate. Hassell, a gap-to-gap hitter couldn’t ask for a better home ballpark than Coors Field.
Selected by Brandon Tew
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
10
Angels
Garrett Crochet
LHP
Tennessee
Any of the 4 top tier college arms would have been a tremendous value here. The Angels need front-line pitching. Crochet’s fastball has increased from 91-95 to 96-100 mph while maintaining its high spin rates. Taking him this high is a moderate risk with safer college arms available.
Selected by Matt Skiba
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
11
White Sox
Nick Bitsko
RHP
Central Bucks East (PA)
The White Sox have built their foundation around power arms and bats as they have assumed the one of the better farm systems in baseball entering 2020. That recent trend will continue with Bitsko and his electric arsenal that reclassified from the 2021 class in January.
Selected by Tony Piraro
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
12
Reds
Garrett Mitchell
OF
UCLA
Mitchell has been on prospect boards ever since high school and has worked on his weaknesses during his time at UCLA increasing his prospect rank. He is a five-tool talent with the strongest tool being his speed. If he is still on the board at pick No. 12, expect the Reds to draft him for a steal.
Selected by Alex Courtney
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
13
Giants
Tyler Soderstrom
C
Turlock HS (CA)
One of the most polished prep bats in the draft, Soderstrom has impressed scouts with his athletic ability to move around the field. A 6’2 frame that will have the ability to fill out as he gets older, makeup off the charts, I believe San Francisco likes the high-ceiling prep bat here at 13.
Selected by Darren Trainor
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
14
Rangers
Tanner Burns
RHP
Auburn
Hiding in plain sight for much of his college career at Auburn, Burns consistently navigated the toughest SEC competition with great poise and success. While durability concerns loom, his experience and ability to command pitches at an advanced level makes him a great fit.
Kjerstad has received notoriety from scouts for being the best left-handed power hitter in this year’s draft class. Given the Phillies lack of organizational depth in the outfield, they search for long-term options alongside Bryce Harper in the outfield.
Selected byJoseph Wittreich
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
16
Cubs
Cade Cavalli
RHP
Oklahoma
The Cubs tend to draft college players early in drafts, and Cavalli fills the need for pitching depth in their rebuilding minor league system. He brings effortless velocity, a nasty curveball, and the potential to develop 2-3 more really solid pitches.
Selected by Vince DiSilvio
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
17
Red Sox
Bryce Jarvis
RHP
Duke
An organization in desperate need of starting pitching, the Red Sox try to get some help from a class loaded with it. Jarvis fits the starting pitching mold with four average-to-above offerings, and plus control. Also his dad Kevin played 13 seasons in the majors; his last with the Boston Red Sox.
Selected byCorey Leaden
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
18
D- Backs
Pete Crow-Armstrong
OF
Harvard- Westlake HS (CA)
Potential 5-tool outfielder, from a high school that has produced numerous major league players. A Vanderbilt commit; which are usually tougher to sign. The upside is worth the risk for the D-Backs holding another first round pick.
Selected by Justin Stine
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
19
Mets
Mick Abel
RHP
Jesuit (OR)
After letting Wheeler walk and trading away their fourth-and-sixth best prospects for Stroman, both pitchers, they double down on the position after drafting Matthew Allan in the second round last year hoping to replenish it.
Selected by Alexander Arcidiacono
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
20
Brewers
Patrick Bailey
C
NC State
An organization that is desperate for farm system talent gets their guy here at No. 20. Bailey a switch hitting catcher that has shown plus power in his time at NC State gives the Brewers another strong potential backstop in their minor league ranks.
Selected by Luke Iorio
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
21
Cardinals
Ed Howard
SS
Mount Carmel (IL)
Howard has good middle-infield defensive ability and offensive upside. The consensus for Howard is that he is a top-15 pick, so the Cardinals are glad to get him here at 21.
Selected by Allen Ho
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
22
Nationals
Cole Wilcox
RHP
Georgia
Wilcox honored his commitment to Georgia after the Nationals drafted him out of high achool in 2018. An organization that usually goes with college pitching in the first round, the Nationals should pounce on another chance to have Wilcox, and his mid-90s fastball.
Selected by Corey Eiferman
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
23
Indians
Austin Hendrick
OF
West Allegheny HS (PA)
Since 2016, The Indians have used all of their first-round picks on high school talent. They continue to go in that direction by taking Hendrick. Hendrick’s combination of athleticism and power give the Indians a potential high impact bat in the outfield.
Selected by Ben Jaffy
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
24
Rays
Casey Martin
SS
Arkansas
The Rays have one of the strongest farm systems in the MLB. They now have the ability to take a risk and draft someone with high upside. Casey Martin fits that mold with concerns about his hit ability, but an extremely high ceiling.
Selected by Chris Dominguez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
25
Braves
Jared Kelley
RHP
Refugio (TX)
In 2019 the Braves went safe in what was probably their last year with high picks for the foreseeable future. Kelley has a natural feel for the art of pitching and knows how to work the strike zone, both of which are traits that the Braves know how to develop and capitalize on.
Selected by Sales Pinckney
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
26
Athletics
Bobby Miller
RHP
Louisville
The Athletics have used their late first-round picks to pick high ceiling college talent and Miller fits that mold with two high velocity fastballs that he is able to blow by hitters. Miller ranks among the hardest throwers in this year’s Draft.
Selected by Bryan Borruso
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
27
Twins
Dillon Dingler
C
Ohio State
The draft can go a lot of ways for them and if given the opportunity to take Dingler, C, Ohio State, the Twins will to fill in the lack of depth they have behind the plate as an organization. Dingler is a catcher with pop who hit .291 in his sophomore effort with 14 extra base hits including 3 home runs.
Selected by Ethan Young
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
28
Yankees
Clayton Beeter
RHP
Texas Tech
Beeter features a fastball in the mid-90s that can reach the upper-90s. The 6’2″ right-hander had Tommy John surgery before his freshman season, and while there are concerns about his durability, his upside could be too much for the Yankees to pass on.
Selected by Brendon Baker
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
29
Dodgers
Austin Wells
C
Arizona
With defensive minded catcher Keibert Ruiz already in the system, an offensive first catcher is a great option for the Dodgers. Wells is a powerful left-handed hitter with above-average bat control that can be moved around in the field to ensure his bat is in the lineup.
Selected by Stephen Marciello
Competitive Balance Round A
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
30
Orioles
Justin Lange
RHP
Llano HS (TX)
Lange might be the biggest question mark in this draft. His velocity increased from low 90s to touching 100 but wasn’t super consistent in the shortened spring season. With the Orioles in the middle of a rebuild and still many years from a playoff run they have time to develop him.
Selected by Payton Kuhnel
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
31
Pirates
Slade Cecconi
Miami
Miami
The Pirates need some help in their starting pitching rotation, and Cecconi would be a perfect fit. Cecconi has a 4.09 ERA with 119 strikeouts in 101 1/3 innings in parts of 2 seasons with Miami, including a 3.80 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings in four starts.
Selected by Drew Onder
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
32
Royals
Carmen Mlodzinski
RHP
South Carolina
The Royals could go a number of different ways here, but since they grabbed a position player with their first selection, they will elect to draft a pitcher here and add to their stockpile of talented young arms. The Royals love their pitching prospects, and Mlodzinski is a first round talent.
Selected by Trey Lake
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
33
D-Backs
Justin Foscue
2B
Mississippi State
After going high risk high reward with first pick, the D-Backs go with a safer option here in a college bat with under slot potential. Foscue also offers infield defensive flexibility, and someone who should be a solid depth piece if not more.
Selected by Justin Stine
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
34
Padres
Isaiah Greene
OF
Corona HS (CA)
This left handed hitting outfielder will bring skills that the Padres are lacking at the major league level. Greene has an athletic built and is very fast on the base paths. He has the speed to be a major league center fielder.
Selected by Danny Jimenez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
35
Rockies
Aaron Sabato
1B
North Carolina
With the universal DH possibly on the horizon the Rockies could just take the best power bat available. Sabato has exceptional strength from the right-handed batter’s box, with average defense. He has a bat and approach that could flourish at Coors Field.
Selected by Brandon Tew
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
36
Indians
Seth Lonsway
LHP
Ohio State
The Indians have done a very good job of developing pitching. Lonsway possess one of the best curveballs in this year’s draft. Cleveland should feel confident that their development can help Lonsway make the most of his stuff and become a major league starter.
Selected by Ben Jaffy
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
37
Rays
Daniel Cabrera
OF
LSU
The only “weakness” in the Rays farm system (if there is any) involves too many question marks in the outfield. Drafting a pure hitter like Daniel Cabrera gives the Rays more optimism in that area.
Selected by Chris Dominguez
Round 2
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
38
Tigers
Nick Loftin
SS
Baylor
Loftin played five positions with Team USA last summer, showing off his plus instincts and a strong hit tool displayed with (Baylor, Cape Cod, Team USA).
Selected by Jeff Israel
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
39
Orioles
Chris McMahon
RHP
Miami
McMahon improved every year and had a 1.05 ERA in 25 innings pitched before play was stopped this year. At 6’2 217, he has a solid build and provides plus stuff to miss the big bats of the AL East.
Selected by Christian Chavez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
40
Marlins
Jordan Walker
3B
Decatur HS (GA)
Miami has shown a clear preference for high-risk high-reward players under the 2 years of new ownership, and with no third basemen in their top 30 prospects, prep bat Jordan Walker fits the bill.
Selected by Adam Sinkoe
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
41
Royals
Drew Romo
C
The Woodlands (TX)
The Royals have a recent track record of being able to sign away high school catchers (Melendez, 2017) and will take a chance they can do the same with Romo, a switch-hitting catcher.
Selected by Trey Lake
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
42
Blue Jays
Blaze Jordan
1B
DeSoto Central HS (MS)
More than just a plus-power hitter, he was the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2021 before reclassifying. Jordan comes with elite makeup and a very high ceiling.
Selected by Evan Dennis
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
43
Mariners
Yohandy Morales
3B
Braddock HS (FL)
With a lack of depth in their farm system at third base, the Mariners decide to draft a project player with high upside in Yohandy Morales. Standing at 6’4″, Morales already displays plus raw power.
Selected by Sam Waisanen
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
44
Pirates
Chase Davis
OF
Franklin HS (CA)
Chase Davis has a cannon for an arm and has been clocked throwing 99 mph from the outfield. This pick could prove to be a solid depth piece for the Pirates, but also has the potential to be a star.
Selected by Andrew Onder
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
45
Padres
Carson Montgomery
RHP
Windermere Prep HS (FL)
Carson has the ability to become a either a back of the bullpen pitcher or a front-end starter. The Padres could develop Carson to help out their pitching staff.
Selected by Danny Jimenez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
46
Rockies
Cade Horton
RHP/ SS
Norman (OK)
Signability is a major concern as he’s committed to play two sports at Oklahoma. The future Sooners QB might have a high asking price. Rockies get a compensation pick if they are unable to sign him.
Selected by Brandon Tew
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
47
White Sox
J.T Ginn
RHP
Mississippi State
Chicago’s love for SEC talent leads the White Sox to their prized pitching prospect from Mississippi State. In 2019, the Sox selected seven pitchers with their first 10 picks and it continues here in 2020.
Selected by Tony Piraro
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
48
Reds
C.J Van Eyk
RHP
Florida State
The Reds would more than likely use their second draft pick for a pitcher after picking up a much-needed outfielder in the first round. The Reds’ top prospects are mostly position players.
Selected by Alex Courtney
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
49
Giants
Jared Jones
RHP
La Mirada HS (CA)
Jones’s has a fairly strong commitment to Texas. San Francisco would be betting on the ceiling of the pure stuff that Jones possess as an 18-year-old with signability concerns.
Selected by Darren Trainor
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
50
Rangers
Alika Williams
SS
Arizona State
Sticking to the theme of adding seasoned college players with the ability to rise through the system quickly, Williams makes perfect sense here in Round 2 as a defensive minded shortstop
Selected by Andrew Delzotto
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
51
Cubs
Logan Allen
LHP
Florida International
With both Jose Quintana and Jon Lester’s contracts ending by 2022, the Cubs are going to need major league ready pitching soon, and there isn’t much of that in their farm system right now.
Selected by Vince DiSilvio
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
52
Mets
Hudson Haskin
OF
Tulane
He can help fill the Mets’ void in their farm system left by the Jared Kelenic trade. Specifically, none of their top 15 prospects are outfielders and only three are in the top 30 (according to MLB pipeline).
Selected by Alexander Arcidiacono
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
53
Brewers
Alex Santos
RHP
Mount St. Michael Academy (NY)
The formula for winning baseball games today is clear: power. The Brewers add a young power arm here at pick 53 with Alex Santos. At just 18 years old Santos is already hitting 95 on the radar.
Selected by Luke Iorio
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
54
Cardinals
Dax Fulton
LHP
Mustang (OK)
Although their farm system top arms are all left handed (Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Genesis Cabrera), it’s only because they get Kwang Hyun Kim as the lone option for big leagues.
Selected by Allen Ho
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
55
Nationals
Cole Henry
RHP
LSU
Despite not having quite the experience, the Nationals shouldn’t shy away from using both of their first two picks on draft-eligible college sophomore pitchers.
Selected by Corey Eiferman
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
56
Indians
Masyn Winn
RHP/ SS
Kingwood (TX)
Winn is one of the rare prospects that has a legitimate future either as a pitcher or a position player. On the mound, he pairs a 98-mph fastball with a plus curveball and a changeup.
Selected by Ben Jaffy
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
57
Rays
Ben Hernandez
RHP
De La Salle Institute (IL)
Nothing wrong with having too much pitching! The Rays have been a model organization for developing pitchers for years. Hernandez adds to their already potentially strong future rotation.
Selected by Chris Dominguez
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
58
Athletics
Jeff Criswell
RHP
Michigan
Criswell maintained his stuff and velocity when transitioning from reliever to starter. If he can do a better job of locating his pitches, he could develop into a mid-rotation starter.
Selected by Bryan Borruso
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
59
Twins
Tanner Witt
RHP
Episcopal (TX)
At 6’6″ Witt is a long, young, high upside prospect. The trouble will be getting him to turn down his commitment to Texas which, if he does, could make him a steal late in the second round.
Selected byEthan Young
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
60
Dodgers
Jordan Westburg
SS
Mississippi State
Westburg is a big shortstop with a lot of power in his bat and plus defensive prowess. With the ability to also play third base, Westburg’s power bat will quickly carry him through the minors.
Selected by Stephen Marciello
Competitive Balance Round B
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
61
Marlins
Jared Shuster
LHP
Wake Forest
His steady improvement every year in college utilizing data and technology is telling about his aptitude. It gives him a good chance to reach his potential of solid middle of the rotation starter.
Selected by Adam Sinkoe
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
62
Tigers
Nick Garcia
RHP
Chapman University
Taking a Division III pitcher with little track record as a starter at No. 62 may seem a little out there, but Garcia’s stuff is worth this selection especially after a solid summer in the Cape Cod League.
Selected by Jeff Israel
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
63
Cardinals
Tommy Mace
RHP
Florida
After picking a left-handed pitcher with the second-round pick, the Cardinals could use a right-handed pitcher to bolster their minor league depth also featuring a plus cutter to build on.
Selected by Allen Ho
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
64
Mariners
Carson Tucker
SS
Mountain Pointe HS (AZ)
Brother of Pirates SS Cole Tucker, Carson is a lanky 6’2″ shortstop with plenty of room to develop. While not excelling in any one area, Tucker provides a well-balanced skillset across the board.
Selected by Sam Waisanen
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
65
Reds
Jake Eder
LHP
Vanderbilt
He has had troubles with consistency and placement during his time at Vandy, the team would surely look at honing in on the southpaw’s abilities. He would be a mistake to pass on at this point.
Selected by Alex Courtney
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
66
Dodgers
Burl Carraway
LHP
Dallas Baptist
Regarded as the best reliever and most MLB-ready player in this draft, this left-hander can reach the high 90s with the fastball with a plus-plus curveball can be an excellent addition to the Dodgers.
Selected by Stephen Marciello
Free Agent Compensation Picks
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
67
Giants
Daniel Susac
C
Jesuit HS (CA)
Although the Giants took Soderstrom in the first round and Joey Bart knocking on the door at the big league level, they are betting on Susac developing into a catcher with power and arm strength.
Selected by Darren Trainor
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
68
Giants
Caden Grice
OF/ LHP
Riverside HS (SC)
Teams that put heavy emphasis on algorithms on age, height, weight, skill rave about Grice who could go in the second round does have a commitment to Clemson but carries great upside.
Selected by Darren Trainor
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
69
Mets
Kyle Harrison
LHP
De La Salle (CA)
One of the best left-handers at this point in the draft, might as well gamble for a position that is relatively expensive to pay in free agency (LHP). He has a deceptive delivery, and good control.
Selected by Alexander Arcidiacono
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
70
Cardinals
Drew Bowser
3B
Harvard-Westlake (CA)
Cardinals can opt for offensive upside here to raise the ceiling for their big league lineup in the future. Bowser is still young enough at 18 and needs time to develop.
Selected by Allen Ho
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
71
Nationals
Gage Workman
3B
Arizona State
It’s impossible to replace the most vital position player on a World Series team, but with the departure of Anthony Rendon, the Nationals need to get some close-to-MLB ready talent at 3B.
Selected by Corey Eiferman
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
72
Astros
Nick Swiney
LHP
NC State
The Astros could use a LHP in their starting rotation and bullpen as well. He spent two seasons as a middle reliever for the Wolfpack where he went 11-1 and moved to the starting rotation in 2020.
2020 MLB Draft Top 5 College Baseball Prospect Rankings
Leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft,Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top 5collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player isgraded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation,and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if aplayer makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player intowhich he can develop.
Lacy is the best pitching prospect in the 2020 MLB Draft and it is because he turned himself into the unquestioned ace in College Station. Lacy rocketed up draft rankings and on the radar of scouts based on what he did his sophomore season. Lacy had a stellar campaign tossing a 2.13 ERA in 15 starts, led Division I in fewest hits allowed per 9 innings (5.0), and ranked eighth in strikeouts per 9 (13.2). Showing swing-and-miss ability, that also produces weak contact as batters rarely square his pitches.
Throwing with a fluid motion Lacy stays on balance and in rhythm. He creates a great downhill plane out of his high 3/4 arm slot. With Lacy shifting over more to the third base side of the pitching rubber he has been able to increase his downward movement while hiding the ball very well behind his back leg. He glides more to the arm side of his body towards first base and this causes him to throw across his body as he uncoils to the plate with max effort. Although, that might scare some injury-wise, his durable frame and build can hold up with this delivery and the added deception only elevates his pitches.
Throwing a plus fastball with increased velocity and vertical break, Lacy has also improved the spin rate of the pitch. This leads to an explosive fastball in the mid-’90s that stays at the top of the zone and misses bats. Lacy can easily reach back and hit 97 mph.
Lacy could have one of the best 4-seamers in baseball in a few years. His new and improved slider truly launched his draft stock. Arguably, the best projectable pitch in this draft. Lacy’s slider is more gyroscopic in spin, meaning it spins like a football spiraling towards the plate as gravity causes the ball to pull down to the ground. The result is a wipeout slider that ducks underneath the bat of a righty and down-and-away from lefties while being hard and tight.
Lacy is special because he can manipulate the spin on this pitch. He can get a tighter spin on the ball or more of a sweeping action to it. He can also turn the slider into more of a cutter depending on the situation and how he wants to attack a hitter but it is at its best when it’s hard and diving to the plate.
Lacy’s favorite pitch to throw is his changeup, a circle change with great depth and run, without losing arm action on the pitch allowing it to still look like a fastball at release. He still needs more consistency with the pitch but Lacy’s willingness to throw it to start at-bats as well as to end them is a promising sign.
Lacy’s command and control is the biggest issue. With a 4.4 BB/9, his Sophmore season he did improve that mark over the first three starts of this season lowering it slightly to 3.0. Unfortunately, the season was cut short after those three starts. The control and command issues are concerning as Lacy continues to work on honing his powerful offerings.
Although, he looked to turn the corner in this aspect during his last start of the season. Throwing seven innings of no-hit ball while striking out 13 against a New Mexico State lineup that featured Nick Gonzales and some other pro prospects.
He was pinpoint accurate during the start commanding his fastball and slider well. Lacy has a proven track record of striking out the best competition in college baseball carving up the SEC last season. His command has been suspect, but the performance against New Mexico State to end his college career only highlights Lacy can command the zone.
Summation:
A highly-competitive, elite, pitching prospect with two plus pitches that have a real chance to be 70 on the 20-80. Lacy lacks consistent command right now but has shown flashes of excellent control and command. With an advanced understanding of how to pitch and three potential above-average offerings depending on the development of his changeup. A potential dominant top of the rotation starter and future ace. Lacy is so dominant at points that if he reaches his true potential, he could start an All-Star game at some point in his MLB career.
Projection:
All-Star potential starter, with an elite fastball and slider combo, that possesses a solid four-pitch mix
2020 MLB Draft Top 5 College Baseball Prospect Rankings
Leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft,Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top 5collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player isgraded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation,and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if aplayer makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into, which he can develop.
Not many baseball players can say they have broken a record that Barry Bonds held. That is what Torkelson did his freshman year at Arizona State launching 25 HR for the Sun Devils. Torkelson displayed great raw power in the batter’s box and followed up that performance with 23 HR in his sophomore season in Tempe. Torkelson has turned himself into the consensus number 1 pick on June 10.
Standing with a slightly open stance, Torkelson shifts his weight to his back leg as his front leg stays in rhythm as the pitcher starts to release the baseball. This allows Torkelson to explode towards the baseball with maximum energy and power. The power and bat speed is effortless as Torkelson never overswings and extends himself as a hitter.
With a tiny stride back towards the mound to square himself up. Torkelson then drops the bat head on the ball and whips the bat through the zone with a compact and smooth swing. With the elite bat speed Torkelson routinely lets outside pitches travel deeper into the zone and does not force anything as he drives the ball to the right side of the diamond.
Relaxed at the plate and extremely loose and comfortable, Torkelson can turn on inside pitches with ease while still display the rare ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark the other way. The loft he creates on his swing is impressive as he skies massive fly balls over the fence.
Torkelson has the unique talent and shows it off with his game power and raw power during batting practice. Even when Torkelson does not square a ball up, he still has enough strength to drive the ball out from foul pole to foul pole.
The power might stand out when you watch Torkelson, but he is a complete hitter taking pitches with good plate discipline and showing a great understanding of what he wants to accomplish at the plate.
Torkelson’s advanced approach at the dish rarely has him fooled with the same pitches in back-to- back at-bats. He punishes pitchers for making mistakes with hanging breaking pitches but also has the bat control to foul off nasty ones to get to the next fastball in the at-bat.
Torkelson hits the ball hard often, with a career batting average of .337 and an OPS of 1.166 has elite potential at the next level with his bat. Torkelson’s maturity and mental makeup and approach to the game remind me of Anthony Rizzo who has been a mainstay in the middle of the lineup and at first base for the Cubs the unquestioned leader of that team. Torkelson has those similar qualities to the lefty which make him a special prospect.
The defense at first base is solid. Torkelson has worked hard to refine his defensive skills and as a very good athlete he shows off baseball athleticism routinely by making movements and motions look easy that other guys find more challenging on a ball field.
Torkelson has a good glove at first base and an average arm that is accurate, and while he most likely will stick at first baseand be above average, teams could opt to move him to left field if needed. It could be rather quickly too as he displays the type of power that the last two Rookies of the Year in the NL possess in Roñald Acuna Jr. and Pete Alonso.
Summation:
An elite first base prospect with devastating power from the right side. Torkelson’s power coupled with his approach at the plate and plate discipline makes him a can’t-miss power bat in this year’s draft. He has potential to be first player to the majors from this class. Torkelson has the power to put up massive HR totals in the MLB and could put up 40 or more on a regular basis.
Projection:
All-Star caliber 1B with all the tools to be an elite bat
Ceiling: Pete Alonso, a right-handed Anthony Rizzo
Leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
It’s tough to find a player in this draft with a more complete game then Austin Martin. A late-round pick in the 2017 Draft, Martin went on to Vanderbilt and was a major piece of the 2019 National Championship. In his time at Vanderbilt he played many positions after coming in as a shortstop from HS, he also played first base, second base, third base, and center field.
Over his 140 games played as a member of the Commodores he hit .368/ .474/ .532 while hitting 14 homers and 43 stolen bases. He struck out in only 12% of at-bats showing a strong ability to put ball into play, walking slightly more at 13%. Martin is a savvy baserunner being able to take more bases then his above average speed would expect.
Martin has a slightly open stance with a slight knee bend. He has quiet hands and utilizes a leg kick to generate power as loads up. Martin shows great bat speed, easily turning on pitches middle-in with a quick compact swing. He is a patient hitter with a plus hit tool and an especially good eye on pitches on other side of plate. Martin is very relaxed in the box, with a balanced swing and has a knack of hitting the ball to wherever it is pitched. His high baseball IQ is displayed by being a strong situational hitter when needed and is also shown on the basepaths.
Martin has defensive question marks as he has played many positions in his time at Vanderbilt. He seems to be finding a home in center field where his athleticism can shine.
Defense is more of a question then an actual weakness as he looks natural in center but will take some time to adjust wherever he plays. He has the potential to make the move to second as well given his background playing the infield. He has many above-average tools but nothing jumps out as plus outside of his hit tool.
Summation
A guy who will hit in any spot of the order. Can set the table very well with the ability to drive the ball. Also carries above-average power and speed to impact the game in many ways. Defense is unclear but looks best suited in the outfield. Second base is an option. He comes from a strong program and is used to playing in big games
Projection
An impactful player who will hit in the top third of order and can be deployed defensively to suit a team’s needs.
Over the 10 days leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
Not many players had a better 2019 then Nick Gonzales, who took home numerous awards across regular and summer league play. He’s a 2019 All- American, NCAA batting champ (hitting .432), and the Cape Cod League MVP. After his top-notch summer against baseball’s top prospects, he started 2020 with a blistering effort over 58 at-bats; he had 12 HR, and was batting .448 before season was cut short. There were questions about the level of competition Gonzales was facing at New Mexico State, but he put almost all those questions to rest after his MVP performance in the premier wood bat Cape Cod League.
Gonzales looks super-comfortable at the plate standing with an open stance shoulder-width apart and a slight bat waggle in his setup. The relaxed nature of his setup allows him to stay calm and fire his hands at the baseball later than other guys would. That means he lets the ball travel deeper in the zone and can stay back on breaking pitches longer. After the slight bat waggle, the lumber gets into an optimal position to square up the baseball. This allows Gonzales to end up with his energy heading toward the pitcher and in rhythm. Gonzales has great balance and is willing to work the count. An advanced hitter with a plan in every at-bat.
Almost every swing he takes is short and compact as he rarely overswings to try and produce power.
The raw power Gonzales has is greater than his in-game pop right now although he is progressing nicely and has the potential to reach average to slightly above-average power for his position. The New Mexico State product’s willingness to drive the ball gap-to-gap allows him to display some opposite-field power, which is a great sign that he can continue to add a power component to his bat. The way Gonzales takes pitches and always seems in rhythm again displays an advanced understanding at the plate that will help him early on his pro career.
Gonzales is an average defender, smooth and fluid at second base. He will make all the routine plays and works well to get around the baseball and keeps himself in control. However, when he gets to the ball, he is sure handed. He turns a quick pivot at second on double-plays and while his arm is below average the quickness with which he gets the ball out allows him to still make plays.
Summation
The best potential hit tool in the 2020 Draft, while all other tools are projected to be average. A top of the lineup guy, who will get on base at an incredible clip. The question lies in what can be developed of his other tools.
Projection
Everyday second baseman, who can be an elite leadoff guy.
Ceiling: Dustin Pedroia Floor: Tony Graffanino Draft Expectation: Top 10 Pick
Over the 10 days leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Baseball Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
Emerson Hancock spent all three seasons in Athens as a part of the rotation, after not signing with the Diamondbacks when they selected him the 38th round of the 2017 Draft out of high school. In his career at Georgia he made 33 appearances (all starts) where he accumulated 192 innings with 3.47 ERA and a record of 16-7, with 206 strikeouts and 55 walks (9.7 K per 9, 2.6 BB per 9). Hancock was the frontline guy most of his time at Georgia but had a couple poor starts during 2020 season. Due to the shortened season he made no SEC starts in his junior year of college.
He is a tall lanky starter, athletic body, and perfect frame for MLB. Hancock primarily delivers using a high leg kick and ¾ delivery; while featuring four above-average offerings (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup). His fastball sits in mid-90’s, topping out at 97, but does a real good job featuring all four options, and is willing to go to any pitch in strikeout situations. He’s greatly confident in his fastball, and his slider comes out hard sits mid-to- low 80s his best secondary pitch. He features his curveball a lot more in his third time through the order, while his changeup sits mid 80s with good arm-side run. He has great control which is displayed by 34-to-3 K-to-BB in his junior year. Hancock locates pitches to target, with great command.
His curveball is just average, with no big drop. But it is a capable pitch and he uses it well as a fourth option. It is a pitch to monitor as he continues his development through minor league baseball. Hancock features plus attributes in almost every other category. Hancock has a great pedigree, body, and athleticism, though there are some concerns regarding a lat injury in 2019 and his overall consistency. But I think he has a chance to be a potential Opening Day starter of the future for whatever team selects him.
Summation
All-Star caliber pitching prospect with three plus pitches and plus control. He has a fourth-pitch curveball when he needs it to face an order multiple times. He’s an elite SEC pitcher with a great body mixed with good athleticism, and is arguably the top pitcher in the draft .
Projection
All- Star potential starter with three plus pitches including a mid-90s fastball. High strikeout potential mixed with plus command and control.
Over the next 10 days leading up to the 2020 MLB Amateur Draft, Sports Info Solutions will be publishing a series of position-by-position scouting reports from two of our Video Scouts for the top-5 collegiate draft prospects and two honorable mentions. Each player is graded by the 20-80 scouting scale, given a comprehensive evaluation, and assigned a floor and a ceiling comparison, which indicate–if a player makes the Major Leagues–the range of the type of player into which he can develop.
Heston Kjerstad has been a premier college bat ever since he arrived in Fayetteville after being drafted out of high school in 2017 being taken in the 36th round by the Mariners. He has garnered numerous awards in his time at Arkansas from SEC Freshman of the year, and two years on the Golden Spikes watch list. He has been the heart of the lineup, and never missed a CWS during his time at the collegiate level. During the summer of 2019 he led team USA in BA, SLG, OBP, and tied for the team lead in home runs. Over his 67 AB during the shortened 2020 season he was batting .448/ .513/ .791 while hitting 6 home runs and lowering his strikeout percentage to 12% in this small sample.
Kjerstadlooks like a power hitter with good height, who could add more muscle as he matures. He has an upright stance with low hands and a complicated swing as he loads with a high leg kick as he brings the bat back and up. He finishes with a powerful swing as he brings his bat back through the zone to catch the ball out in front.
There are a lot of moving parts in his swing but it has produced major results among top-flight college competition. He has an aggressive approach and strikes out at an above average clip (19%). But the tradeoff is major power potential given his elite bat speed and strength going deep on average once every 16 AB over his college career. His lack of patience is a little worrisome but he still carries elite MLB power potential.
He is a below-average runner, with some acceleration that allows him to play average defense. He’s a fit for either corner spot at the next level, his arm is strong enough to stay in right. Kjerstad’s routes are not always the best but he makes most plays you would expect him to make. If he struggles in the outfield, he has an ideal body for 1B but will not be expected to be anything more than average in the field.
Summation
Kjerstad is an elite power bat who should stick in the heart of MLB order for many years. He played at ab elite program in Arkansas where he led them to CWS in both of his seasons. He’s an average pure hitter who should play league-average defense while hitting 30+ home runs consistently.
Projection
Everyday outfield starter in the middle of MLB lineup with potent power bat, while producing near league average performance in all other areas.
Photo: University of Louisville Athletic Department
Written by Brandon Tew
Analysis
Reid Detmers at Louisville has been one of the most impressive pitchers at the college level the last two seasons. Posting a 2.78 ERA in 2019 and a 1.23 ERA in the beginning of 2020 Detmers has been a dominant force in the ACC. Pitching against some of the best competition in the country, Detmers has proven he can strike out entire lineups, tossing a career-high 16 strikeouts against Georgia Tech last March and backing up that performance with a 15-strikeout showing against Wake Forest this March. Last postseason Detmers took the ball in game 1 of the Super Regionals against East Carolina and tossed a brilliant seven innings of one-run ball.
Throwing out of a ¾ arm slot Detmers has a smooth, effortless and very repeatable delivery. With a lean medium-sized build, he isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but the balance and ease at which he functions on the mound should lead to continued success as he works on honing his secondary offerings.
Detmers’ fastball is not going to blow a batter away at the MLB level. It sits around 89-92 mph with his fastball. His curveball is elite with a true 12-6 break the pitch comes in towards the plate in the low to mid 70s. He can drop it out of the sky at the top of the zone for a strike or snap it off into the dirt as a swing-and-miss pitch. His curveball will continue to be his go-to offering, especially as his changeup and slider progress. The ability to spin the baseball at a high level allows for considerable hope that he will be able to potentially possess an average slider that will keep batters honest.
Detmers’ control and command will be key with a pretty low walk rate of 2.3 per 9 innings in the 2019 season and 2.5 before the 2020 season was cut short. Detmers has shown good control throughout his time at Louisville. Pair that with his strikeouts and you could have a great combination on the mound.
The next step for Detmers is to tunnel his high four-seam fastball with his killer curveball. Then the development of a decent slider to go along with his fastball that he spots at the bottom of the zone. Detmers could also scrap the slider altogether and opt for a cutter, which he started throwing more in 2020. The command of his fastball and especially his curveball is what stands out for Detmers who is unafraid to throw his fastball to either side of the plate, while also breaking off a wicked curveball in any count.
Summation
Detmers is considered a top arm in the 2020 draft and with good command and the best breaking pitch in the draft, he should go high on June 10. A higher floor but lower ceiling guy, Detmers might be one of the safest picks in the 2020 draft. You know what you are going to get with him and, as a guy who might be able to throw with more effort while not sacrificing control, you might be getting even more than you imagined.
Projection
Mid-rotation guy with plus control, and an elite hook.
At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams. This piece, the last in our series, focuses on players who could be posted in future years.
Kohei Arihara has long been on the radar of Pacific Rim scouts, due in no small part to his rotation mate Shohei Ohtani drawing massive interest during his first three seasons as a pro. Nevertheless, Arihara has maintained the interest of MLB scouts well after the departure of Ohtani. The 27 year old right hander has ascended to ace status for the Fighters, and has enjoyed a breakout season on the strength of increased changeup usage that allows him to fare much better against left handed hitters. His 25.2 K% and 2.46 ERA this season are by far career highs, and it was encouraging to see him get to 160 innings pitched after a shoulder injury prior to the 2018 season limited him to 110 innings.
Arihara features a four seamer with decent run and rise as his primary fastball, which will range anywhere from 88 to 95 MPH in a given start. It’s hard to get a great gauge of where he sits with, but his ability to maintain most of the higher range of his velocity late into games suggests he likes to mix speeds rather than try to blow hitters away.
Against right handed hitters, Arihara goes to his slider and splitter to finish off plate appearances. The slider is his primary breaking ball, and an above-average offering with nice bite that is commanded well gloveside to the black. The splitter features good slashing movement that can get down and in on the shoetops of righties, but it can leak over the plate at times and projects more as an average offering.
Against left handed batters, Arihara likes to go to his changeup and cutter. The cutter, which has been used less in recent years, is an average offering that Arihara can locate fairly well on the hands of lefties and generate weak contact. The changeup is the one true plus offering that Arihara features, as he demonstrates plus depth and fade with more consistent feel than the splitter. Rounding out his repertoire is a mid to high 80s two seamer that will likely be scrapped at the next level, along with an eephus curve that serves as a change of pace pitch.
With only being a year away from that all too valuable sixth year of NPB service time, don’t expect Kohei Arihara to be posted until after the 2020 season. He has grown into his wide arsenal of offerings, and seems to have found a pitch mix that best suits him as a starter. Arihara demonstrates strong command of his three best pitches–an above average four seamer, a plus change, and a slider that flashes plus. That, along with his resourceful deployment of his lesser secondary offerings to keep hitters off balance, projects Arihara as a middle of the rotation starter for an MLB team as soon as 2021.
Kohei Arihara
W
L
IP
ERA
WHIP
HR/9
K%
BB%
2019
15
8
164.1
2.46
0.92
0.8
25.2%
6.3%
Career
52
41
703.1
3.79
1.22
1.0
17.8%
5.6%
Masataka Yoshida, OF, Orix
Age: 26 | Posting Eligibility: 2023
The shining star in an otherwise bleak Orix sky, Masataka Yoshida is one of the best pure hitters in the NPB. He’s had back to back 25-home run seasons, is one of three qualified hitters to walk more than he struck out in 2019, and has been consistently among the leaders in OPS throughout his NPB career. The only thing Yoshida doesn’t do is run–he’s 9 for 14 in career stolen base attempts–but there are few better inside the batter’s box than this Buffaloes’ basher.
Yoshida exhibits plus bat speed and plus raw power from the left side, with quiet lower half swing mechanics. His load gets a little long due to a hand hitch keeps him from getting out in front of the ball more on high velocity pitches, but he still has the hand quickness and feel for hitting to spray consistently and drive those pitches up the middle. Being able to get out in front and drive those balls pull side with some regularity is the next step. Defensively, Yoshida is limited to left field, as he has fringe average arm strength and foot speed. He moves very tentatively in the field and doesn’t seem to get good reads on fly balls, which projects him to have below average range.
Yoshida’s power relative to his size, feel for hitting from the left side, and fringy defensive ability reminds me a lot of Texas Rangers’ DH/LF Willie Calhoun–whose offensive breakout in 2019 shows promise for Yoshida getting an offer to play everyday as a middle of the order masher. Due to a lower back injury that sidelined him for most of 2017, Yoshida is likely not going to gain the requisite six years of service time required to eligible for a major league contract in the posting process until after the 2022 season. Considering his value is almost entirely tied to his bat, he should be able to retain his value over the next three seasons provided he stays healthy–though it remains to be seen if Orix will be willing to post their superstar.
Masataka Yoshida
PA
AVG
OBP
SLG
HR
SB
BB%
K%
2019
610
.322
.413
.543
29
5
13.0%
10.5%
Career
1734
.315
.401
.535
77
9
12.2%
11.8%
Atsuki Taneichi, RHP
Chiba Lotte (Posting: 2026)
R/R 6-00, 183 lbs
Date of Birth: 09/07/1998
NOTE: Due to Taneichi’s age, I’ve decided to take a more pure scouting report approach to his entry in the series. We’ll cover his frame, mechanics, each pitch and his overall command, along with overall thoughts and a long term projection.
Build and Mechanics: 6’0”, 183 lbs. Mostly filled out, might be able to add a bit more muscle to his frame. Pitches out of a three-quarter armslot, shows good arm speed and extension with smooth lower-half mechanics; though shortening up his arm action might help him get a bit more zip on his fastball.
Fastball: Sits 88-91, Tops out at 92. Could probably add some muscle onto his frame, but the velo is going to be no better than average. Can get plus run on it and has shown effectiveness getting weak contact working up in the zone. Gets good rise on his 4-seamer and good sink on 2-seamer.
Slider: Average pitch that flashes above average bite and depth. Think it should be used more as a change of pace against lefties but should be an out pitch against righties as he refines his command of it.
Splitter: Plus depth and fade, shows advanced feel but can leak it over the middle. Demonstrates an ability to tunnel it off of sinker against lefties and slice it down against righties.
Command: Secondary command is developing, showing some difficulty getting over the top of his slider. Both split and slider will miss over the plate, but motion is repeatable and fluid enough to project an increase in hitting spots.
Overall: Taniechi has been impressive as a second year out of high school in the NPB. His upside is limited due to a fastball with a strong movement profile but lackluster velocity, but he has a splitter that projects as plus along with a slider that should be a reliable out pitch versus righties. Secondary command is still a work in progress, but he generally keeps his fastball out of the middle of the zone. Refinement of his slider will be key for him. If he can consistently get over the top of it he has bottom of rotation upside in an MLB rotation.
At SIS, part of our baseball operation involves collecting data on all of the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) games. We’ll be sharing detailed profiles on a player from each of these teams.
Kodai Senga doesn’t just possess some of the best raw stuff in Japan, he possesses some of the best raw stuff in the world. The 26 year old righthander has been electric in 2019. He leads all qualified starters with a 20.4 K-BB%, and his 11.5 K/9 rate also tops the NPB rotation leaderboard.
Senga typically averaged around 92 MPH on his heater during his previous four years as staff ace of the Hawks, but has seen his average fastball velocity jump to around 95-96 MPH in 2019, and will touch 98 and 99 routinely in starts. He’s still adjusting to his newfound velocity, and will either need to improve his ability to hit the corners or start attacking the zone more to blow hitters away with his premium velocity and plus spin.
His main out pitch is a devastating forkball splitter, which has plus plus depth due to Senga’s innate ability to neutralize spin with how he grips the ball. Senga’s been working on a cutter in recent years, which has jumped up in velocity as well. It sits in the high 80s with average bite, but plays up by keeping hitters off his fastball and vice versa. His fourth pitch is an average slider with inconsistent shape and location that flashes above average.
Senga has top of the rotation upside, and would easily earn a nine-figure deal if he were posted this offseason. Unfortunately, SoftBank is one of the more intransigent teams when it comes to posting their players. Barring a drastic change of institutional practice, it seems that MLB franchises will have to wait until Senga is eligible for international free agency in 2022.
When consistency meets excellence in the NPB, it produces a pitcher like Tomoyuki Sugano. From 2014-2018, Sugano never had a season with an ERA lower than 2.33 or less than 150 innings pitched, and did it all for the Yomiuri Giants– the flagship franchise of the NPB. However, in 2019 Sugano has taken a step back. His ERA is a career high 3.89, he’s on pace to pitch fewer than 150 innings, and he’s averaging 1.3 homers per nine–more than double his career rate.
Sugano works off a fastball that sits 90-92 and tops out at 94 MPH. In later looks his fastball was sitting 89-91, but he still generates strong armside run and gets good sink on his two seamer. It’s lively enough to be an average pitch at present, though he has lost a tick on his heater and can’t really afford to lose any more velocity. His bread and butter is mixing that fastball with a pair of slider variations, both plus.
The harder slider, which is classified as a cutter in some reports, has a nice tight hook and sharp gloveside bite. The more traditional slider has a more vertical hook that Sugano is able to finish down with regularly. He’ll mix in a hard forkball splitter that flashes plus depth, but the lack of consistent feel keeps it from projecting any more than an average pitch at the major league level.
Like Senga, you can pretty much bank on Sugano not coming over to the majors until 2022. Yomiuri has made it very clear that they do not intend to post their players under the current posting agreement between MLB and NPB. That’s a shame, because Sugano still profiles as a No. 4 starter for an MLB team at present. But three years is a ways away, and any further loss of fastball velocity–particularly because of its correlation with an increased home run rate–could quell Sugano’s market abroad by the time he is eligible to negotiate with major league teams.
If Senga’s strength is elite stuff, and Sugano’s strength is elite performance, Takahiro Norimoto strength is the blend of both. Rakuten’s ace has been stellar in his seven year career, posting a 3.06 ERA with a 25.3% K rate and a miniscule 6.1% BB rate in nearly 1200 career innings. Unfortunately, Norimoto’s season was delayed by offseason surgery to clean up his pitching elbow, which has limited his starts in 2019. The good news is that he’s been quite good in limited action since returning from the injured list, posting an ERA around 3 and showing the same level of stuff he had pre-injury.
Norimoto works off a fastball that will sit in the 92-94 MPH range and touch 96. He exhibits very good rise on it, and does a good job hiding it in his delivery to give it the “sneaky hop” that makes hitters late on it. He’ll generally follow up with a variety of three secondary pitches–a slider, a cutter and a splitter.
The slider and cutter will bleed into each other in terms of shape and velocity, and will often get classified together as one pitch. The cutter has more lateral bite and break than the slider. Flashes plus when he commands it glove side, but it will leak towards the middle. The slider grades out as plus, due to its plus downward break and Norimoto’s ability to command it to both sides of the plate. The splitter flashes plus when Norimoto can get it to dive from the middle of the plate, but inconsistent feel will cause it to spike or hang and keeps it from being plus. A curve and a straight change, both confidently used as change of pace pitches, round out his arsenal.
It was reported during the summer that Norimoto signed a seven-year extension with Rakuten prior to the 2019 season. If Rakuten chooses not to post Norimoto over the next seven years, he won’t be heading to the majors until his age 36 season. However, given Norimoto’s previously stated desire to be posted, it has been speculated that perhaps Norimoto is still interested in a move to the majors, and sought this extension as a form of insurance. Norimoto at present projects as a No. 3 starter in a major league rotation, with No. 2 upside if he continues to demonstrate the stuff and command he has shown since returning from injury over a larger sample of time.
The longtime rock of the Dragons’ staff, Yudai Ono has been breathing fire in 2019. On the strength of a subtle increase in fastball velocity, Ono set a career high mark in strikeout rate while also cutting his walk rate down a half percent from career norms. This has helped him post a sparkling 2.63 ERA in over 174 innings pitched in the 2019 regular season.
Ono works primarily off a three pitch mix–fastball, splitter, slider. He’ll also mix in a get me over curveball once or twice a start, but those three pitches are what you need to prepare for when you step into the box. The fastball sits at 90 to 93 MPH, and will touch 94. It’s an average pitch with good rise that plays up a half grade due to Ono’s short arm action that hides the ball behind his head and makes batter late on it.
The splitter is the better of his two secondaries, an out pitch against righties and a weak contact generator against lefties. It’s a hard offering, but the above average fade and depth makes it work despite the lack of velocity separation from the fastball. The slider is a high 70s slurvy offering that’s average at best, but still useful. It will get some whiffs from lefties early on, but the general goal of the pitch is to get hitters out in front and roll over on it, which Ono executes by consistently placing it over the outer edge of the zone. Occasionally a slider or splitter will leak out over the middle, or a fastball doesn’t get high enough. But as a whole, he generally commands all three pitches well to their spots and misses barrels when he does give up contact.
Ono is not an international free agent until 2021, and it’s not clear if Chunichi is willing to post him, or if he is even interested in being posted. In years past, teams would have a hard time projecting Ono to pitch in anything greater than a relief role. He doesn’t have a very deep arsenal and lacks a plus pitch, making it hard to see him having success against MLB batters when he faces them a third time.
However, with the advent of the opener strategy, pitchers with a similar profile have had success as the “longman”. I think Ono has enough command and deception to work in this role, where he can avoid having to face batters three times in a game.
This strays mostly from my focus of domestic players, but outside of catcher Ryutaro Umeno there really aren’t any superlative natives on Hanshin’s roster. Johnson has put up eye-popping numbers in his first year in the NPB; among pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, he leads the league in ERA (1.43), FIP (1.52) and K-BB% (33.8). His stuff isn’t too much different than his stints in Chicago and San Fran; the curve is a little harder and the fastball lost a half tick or so. What is different is his pitch mix.
Johnson has completely scrapped his cutter in favor of throwing more curveballs, going 50/50 with his fastball and curve. Sure enough, the curve was by far the most effective offering he had as a major leaguer–he had a .225 xwOBA against on his breaker, compared to a .312 xwOBA on the cutter and a .355 xwOBA on the fastball. He also had an average spin rate of 2946 RPM on that curveball, which was 6th among pitchers with at least 200 curveballs thrown from 2017-2018. This kind of overhaul in approach isn’t uncommon in the majors, and if you close your eyes and picture a pitcher scrapping a secondary fastball for a four seam+curve mix you’d probably visualize an Astros cap on his head.
What’s most fascinating isn’t that this happened, but where it happened. NPB teams are certainly more aware of analytical concepts like infield shifting and lineup construction than ever before, but this is the most prominent example in the NPB of a pitcher overhauling his repertoire to pitch off of his best pitch–even if it’s a curveball.
Johnson, who’s on a one year deal for Hanshin making the equivalent of about $800,000, has made the adjustments that we’ve seen in so many breakouts in the States. However, he didn’t have to toil in the high minors to do it, and has at the very least a multi-million dollar market for his services in Japan.
