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  • Prop Possibilities: Chiefs at Chargers

    Prop Possibilities: Chiefs at Chargers

    By Steve Schwarz

    Good game tonight with the Chiefs and Chargers squaring off, so we’ve got four prop possibilities with the help of our tools at SISBets.com.

    For the record, we’re 15-18 on these picks this season but are 4-2 on our last 6.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Patrick Mahomes, under 25.5 completions, -105.

    The dynamic Mahomes we have come to know has disappeared during the Chiefs’ current six-game winning streak. Instead, we have a more conservative version. This version has cracked 300 just once in his last seven games and thrown fewer than 24 completions in five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass defense allows only 20.4 completions per game. SIS analysis projects Mahomes going 23.9-of-37.1 for 275.4 yards.

    2) Tyreek Hill, under 6.5 receptions, +105.

    With Mahomes throwing less and teams playing two-deep safeties to prevent the long pass, Hill’s numbers having suffered a bit. He has just six receptions in his last two games and 26 catches over his last five starts. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers (148) through 13 games.

    Our data predicts Hill to see 8.4 targets and catch 5.5 balls for 67.3 yards.

    3) Darrel Williams, over 14.5 rushing yards, -115.

    Williams has become an integral part of the Kansas City offense since Week 3 and has rushed for more than 14.5 yards in 10-of-his-last 11 games. The return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from an MCL sprain has reduced his workload, but Williams has still surpassed the number in two of three contests.

    SIS data projects Williams to get 6.2 rushing attempts for 25.7 yards, almost double the necessary amount for the over.

    4) Keenan Allen, under 75.5 receiving yards, -115.

    Allen missed the Week 14 contest due to a positive Covid-19 test, but he’s since had two negative tests and is expected to be on the field Thursday night.

    The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with Allen sidelined and the second-year star quarterback showed he could spread the ball around using wideouts Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, running back Austin Ekeler and his tight ends to perfection. Allen is still the No. 1 guy, but Herbert isn’t afraid to look elsewhere if he’s covered or likely double-covered for much of the night. The Chiefs held Allen to just 50 yards in their first meeting this season.

    Our analysis projects Allen with 7.2 targets and 4.9 receptions for just 53 yards, well below the 75.5 receiving yards total.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers

     

    Patrick Mahomes

    Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 2.5 TD passes +140, under -190

    Over 0.5 INTs +120, under -160

    Over 25.5 completions -130, under -105

     

    Justin Herbert

    Over 287.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 2.5 TD passes +155, under -210

    Over 0.5 INTs +115, under -115

    Over 25.5 completions -110, under -120

     

     

    TD Scorers

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, -110

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, +100

    Travis Kelce, +110

    Darrel Williams, +190

    Patrick Mahomes, +350

    Mecole Hardman, +360

    Brian Pringle, +360

    Demarcus Robinson, +550

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Austin Ekeler, -150

    Keenan Allen, +150

    Mike Williams, +175

    Jalen Guyton, +300

    Jared Cook, +300

    Justin Herbert, +400

    Joshua Palmer, +350

    Justin Jackson, +350

    Donald Parham Jr., +450

     

     

    Rushing Yards

     

    Kansas City –

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 56.5 yards -120, under -110

    Darrel Williams, over 14.5 yards -115, under -115

    Patrick Mahomes, over 18.5 yards -115, under -115

     

     

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Justin Herbert, over 15.5 yards, -115, under -115

     

     

    Receptions

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, over 6.5 receptions -140, under +105

    Travis Kelce, over 5.5 receptions -155, under +115

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 2.5 receptions +125, under -165

    Darrel Williams, over 2.5 receptions +115, under -155

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Mike Williams, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Jalen Guyton, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

    Austin Ekeler, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

     

     

    Receiving Yards

     

    Kansas City –

    Tyreek Hill, over 81.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Travis Kelce, over 65.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 13.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Darrel Williams, over 18.5 receiving yards -125, under -105

     

    Los Angeles Chargers –

    Keenan Allen, over 75.5 receiving yards -120, under -115

    Mike Williams, over 54.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

  • Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    Prop Recommendations: Steelers at Vikings

    A pivotal matchup between the two teams that failed to beat the Lions graces us on Thursday Night Football. What a matchup! In all seriousness, this game should be fairly competitive as the Vikings look to right the ship and the Steelers come off an important win against the Ravens. Analysis done using SISBets.com. Let’s get into the picks:

    1) Kirk Cousins, under 22.5 completions, under -105.

    Cousins has been good for the past month, averaging 303 passing yards and over two touchdowns, but he’ll be challenged in this one because he will likely be without his “security blanket” and “red zone specialist” Adam Thielen (high-ankle sprain). The Vikings’ opponent, the Steelers, are only allowing 21.9 completions per game and love to get after the quarterback – leading the league with 37 sacks. SIS analysis has Cousins going 20-for-32 for 243 yards and a fair market value for the under at -199.

    2) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, over -115.

    Most of the talk last week was about the possible future retirement of Roethlisberger, but he’s not done yet. He no longer has those monster games, but his floor is still high. He’s cracked 200 yards in 10 consecutive games, and using his impressive rookies at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and running back (Najee Harris) and his skilled wideouts he has averaged 24.5 completions. Our projection suggests he’ll go 25-for-38 for 263 yards.

    3) Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120.

    Over his last three games, McCloud has seen 18 targets, showing he’s becoming more involved in the offense. His yards aren’t there yet, but he’s still averaging 27.3 yards over that span. The Vikings’ pass defense has been pretty bad all season, allowing almost 190 yards to opposing wideouts per game. SIS analysis predicts McCloud to see 4.6 targets and catch 3.3 for 33.4 yards. That’s more than double what’s necessary to win the over.

     

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Pittsburgh at Minnesota

    Ben Roethlisberger

    Over 257.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -120, under -110

    Over 0.5 INTs -125, under -110

    Over 22.5 completions -115, under -115

    Kirk Cousins

    Over 254.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -110, under -120

    Over 0.5 INTs +110, under -145

    Over 22.5 completions -125, under -105

     

    TD Scorers

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, -135

    Diontae Johnson, +120

    Chase Claypool, +190

    Pat Freiermuth, +190

    Ray-Ray McCloud, +380

    James Washington, +500

    Benny Snell, +1300

    Ben Roethlisberger, +1600

    Minnesota –

    Alexander Mattison, -125

    Justin Jefferson, -105

    K.J. Osborn, +200

    Tyler Conklin, +225

    Dede Westbrook, +350

    Kene Nwangwu, +400

    Kirk Cousins +850

     

    Rushing Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Najee Harris, over 71.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    Receptions

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 3.5 receptions -150, under +115

    Diontae Johnson, over 6.5 receptions -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 3.5 receptions -130, under -105

    Pat Freiermuth, over 3.5 receptions -125, under -105

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 7.5 receptions +100, under -135

    Tyler Conklin, over 3.5 receptions -160, under +120

     

    Receiving Yards

    Pittsburgh –

    Chase Claypool, over 51.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Diontae Johnson, over 79.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Najee Harris, over 26.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Pat Freiermuth, over 36.5 receiving yards -110, under -120

    Ray-Ray McCloud, over 12.5 receiving yards -120, under -110

    Minnesota –

    Justin Jefferson, over 92.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    Tyler Conklin, over 39.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

    K.J. Osborn, over 41.5 receiving yards -125, under -115

  • Prop Recommendations: Cowboys vs Saints

    Prop Recommendations: Cowboys vs Saints

    by STEVE SCHWARZ

    Here are three props that are statistically favorable tonight based on the analysis done by SISBets.com.

    In the interests of full disclosure, our picks are 11-16 this season but we believe over the long haul that our numbers provide accurate and worthwhile insights.

     

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

     

    1) Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 receiving yards, -120.

    Elliott has been a large part of the Cowboys passing game of late, with six catches in each of the last two games. He cracked the 20-yard receiving mark in both games and in five of the last six contests. Based on SIS data, we expect Elliott to get 4.5 targets and catch 3.2 of them for 27.4 yards almost 50% more yards than needed to cover the over number.

     

    2) Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 receiving yards, -110.

    Starter Adam Trautman remains on the IR, which means Juwan Johnson should continue to get a majority of the tight end snaps. Johnson’s production has been inconsistent, but he’s averaging 12 yards per reception so likely only needs one catch to cover the 10.5-yard number.

    New starting quarterback Taysom Hill can hardly be worse than what we saw from Trevor Siemian on Thanksgiving Day. In fact, Hill produced three games last season where he threw for more than 230 yards in four starts. The change under center should help Johnson and we are projecting 2.9 targets, 1.9 receptions and 22.1 yards, more than double what is needed for the over.

     

    3) CeeDee Lamb, under 4.5 receptions, +120.

    It’s always a question mark when your receiver is likely to go head-to-head against Marshon Lattimore. Although he hasn’t been as good in 2021 as past seasons, Lattimore is still a tough customer for a receiver to take advantage of, particularly in front of a national television audience. SIS analysis sets Lamb’s totals with 5.7 targets and 3.7 receptions for 47.2 yards.

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, footbal, and basketballl data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

    Dallas at New Orleans

    Dak Prescott

    Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115

    Over 1.5 TD passes -230, under +170

    Over 0.5 INTs -105, under -130

    Over 24.5 completions -110, under -125

     

    Taysom Hill

    Over 209.5 yards -115, under -115

     

     

    TD Scorers

    Dallas –

    Ezekiel Elliott, -125

    CeeDee Lamb, +120

    Michael Gallup, +175

    Cedrick Wilson, +225

    Tony Pollard, +165

    Dalton Schultz, +180

    Amari Cooper, +180

    Dak Prescott, +450

     

    New Orleans –

    Alvin Kamara, +100

    Mark Ingram, +110

    Taysom Hill, +160

    Marquez Callaway, +220

    Tre’Quan Smith, +250

    Deonte Harris, +250

    Nick Vannett, +400

    Tony Jones, Jr., +650

    Ty Montgomery, +650

    Kenny Stills, +850

     

    Rushing Yards

    Dallas –

    Dak Prescott, over 8.5 yards -115, under -115

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tony Pollard, over 43.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    New Orleans –

    Taysom Hill, over 32.5 yards, -115, under -115

     

    Receptions

    Dallas –

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 2.5 receptions -170, under +125

    CeeDee Lamb, over 4.5 receptions -160, under +120

    Dalton Schultz, over 3.5 receptions -170, under +125

    Michael Gallup, over 3.5 receptions -140, under +105

    Tony Pollard, over 2.5 receptions +105, under -140

     

    Receiving Yards

    Dallas –

    Dalton Schultz, over 42.5 yards -115, under -115

    Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 yards -120, under -110

    Michael Gallup, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tony Pollard, over 16.5 yards -115, under -115

    Amari Cooper, over 47.5 yards -115, under -115

     

    New Orleans –

    Deonte Harris, over 33.5 yards -115, under -115

    Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 yards -110, under -120

    Marquez Callaway, over 30.5 yards -115, under -115

    Tre’Quan Smith, over 39.5 yards -115, under -115

  • Thanksgiving Football Props to Consider

    Thanksgiving Football Props to Consider

    By Steve Schwarz

    Happy Thanksgiving. Let’s see if we can use SISBets.com to make it an even happier one for you. Here are four prop possibilities from Thursday’s games.

    *Odds courtesy of DraftKings

    1) Stefon Diggs, under 6.5 receptions, -145.

    Diggs is coming off one of his worst games of the season, catching four balls for just 23 yards in a blowout loss to Indianapolis. He’s struggled for much of this season, having produced seven or more receptions just four times in 10 games. By contrast, he reached that level 11 times over 16 games in 2020. Additionally, the Saints have allowed the fewest receptions to wide receivers in the NFL, just 79 through 10 games.

    SIS data predicts Diggs will catch 4.8 of 7.1 targets for 61.8 yards. The oddsmakers have the under at -145, but the true odds should be -378.

    2) David Montgomery, over 16.5 receiving yards, -115.

    In 2020 Montgomery caught 54 balls for 438 yards over 15 games. He hasn’t been on the field much in 2021 due to injury, but he’s healthy now and with Andy Dalton under center, he’ll likely use Montgomery as his favorite check down option.

    SIS analysis has the running back catching 2.2 balls for 23 yards, almost 36% above the 17 yards required for the over.

    3) D’Andre Swift, over 33.5 receiving yards, -115.

    One of Swift’s best abilities is catching out of the backfield. He has 53 receptions for 420 yards and two scores this season. He’s caught 33-or-more yards in seven of 10 games.

    Our analysis projects Swift seeing 6.6 targets with 4.8 receptions for 46.3 yards. The odds are -115, but he should crush the over total easily.

    4) Tony Jones Jr., to score a touchdown, +450.

    If you are looking for a long shot which pays well, we recommend Jones Jr. to score a touchdown. The oddsmakers have set the odds at +450, but our data shows that with starter Alvin Kamara set to be inactive and Mark Ingram not at 100% (knee issues),

    Jones has a 21% chance of scoring on the ground and 17% through the air for a “fair market value” at +203.

     

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.

     

  • World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: Cousins is now No. 2!

    World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: Cousins is now No. 2!

    by MARK SIMON AND ALEX VIGDERMAN

    So this is the part where you tell us that our ratings are bananas.

    We like our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking Tool.

    It does what we want it to do. It takes a logical framework and turns out a list of the quarterbacks who fare best by our rules.

    We were used to the results we would get the last couple of years: Some combination of Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady as the No. 1, 2, and 3 quarterbacks. And then a veteran right behind them.

    Made sense.

    And then Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season happened. That’s where things get crazy.

    A reminder that The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is Points Above Average (PAA), which is the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

     

    Tom Brady (last week’s #1) and Aaron Rodgers (last week’s #2) didn’t play in Week 9. Brady stayed at No. 1 and Rodgers dropped to No. 3.

    Patrick Mahomes (#3) had a bad game.

    Matthew Stafford (#5) had a bad game.

    Derek Carr (#6) had a bad game.

    Lamar Jackson (#7) had a bad game.

    Kirk Cousins was just OK for the second straight week—barely above zero Points Above Average in both, which has caused his PAA/Snap rating that underlies this ranking to drop each time. But “just OK” in the context of everyone around him being mediocre meant that Cousins jumped from the No. 4 spot to No. 2.

    (As an aside, it was such a weird week that Colt McCoy and Trevor Siemien cracked the top ten quarterbacks for the week.)

    And replacing him at No. 4 was Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who had the best game by Points Above Average of any QB in 2021. Herbert jumped four spots in the rankings, leapfrogging some pretty experienced competition.

    So here’s our new (gulp!) Top 10 Quarterbacks rankings.

    1. Tom Brady
    2. Kirk Cousins
    3. Aaron Rodgers
    4. Justin Herbert
    5. Patrick Mahomes
    6. Matthew Stafford
    7. Kyler Murray
    8. Josh Allen
    9. Lamar Jackson (excluding his underwhelming performance Thu vs. MIA)
    10. Derek Carr

    We’ve been waiting for Cousins to drop since he jumped to the No. 4 spot in our rankings after Week 3. But he hasn’t done that. He’s posted a positive PAA in every game he’s played this season. Admittedly the last two weeks haven’t been great, but as we noted, not-great looks good when everyone around him is struggling and the other best performances come from the likes of Matt Ryan (currently No. 14).

    The Vikings are wasting a good-to-great year from Cousins with some of these nailbiter defeats. Or maybe what’s happened so far portends better things to come?

     

    Better things have come for Herbert, who ranked as low as No. 11 this season but now stands tall at No. 4. Having a bye after his worst game of the season (against the Ravens) was a blessing for Herbert, who has totaled 20 PAA the last two weeks against the Patriots and Eagles.

    Herbert was 32-of-38 for 356 yards and two touchdowns in the latter game against an Eagles defense that has repeatedly been chopped up by quarterbacks this season.

    He wasn’t terribly aggressive downfield, but boy was he effective, going 4-of-5 for 103 yards in that game on throws at least 15 yards downfield. That effectiveness has pervaded his 2021 campaign. His 21 PAA on passes at least 15 yards downfield is a near match for his 22 PAA on those passes in 2020, in which he (unsurprisingly) had twice as many attempts.

    And just for good measure, the second-year star added two sneaks for first downs on third and fourth down.

     

    Here is the full list for this week. If you have gripes about Cousins, here is the place where we’ll point out that Cousins, Rodgers, Herbert, and Mahomes are all bundled tightly enough together that it wouldn’t be surprising if the order changes every week for the next few. And given that Herbert was able to vault into that group with one great game among a morass of mediocrity, the same thing could cause someone like Stafford to enter the conversation as well.

     

    Rk Player PAA per 60 Last Week Rank Start Of Season Rank
    1 Tom Brady 5.6 1 3
    2 Kirk Cousins 4.8 4 9
    3 Aaron Rodgers 4.8 2 1
    4 Justin Herbert 4.7 8 10
    5 Patrick Mahomes 4.6 3 2
    6 Matthew Stafford 3.6 5 14
    7 Kyler Murray 3.1 10 15
    8 Josh Allen 3 9 6
    9 Lamar Jackson 3 7 12
    10 Derek Carr 2.9 6 7
    11 Russell Wilson 2.2 12 5
    12 Deshaun Watson 2 11 4
    13 Ryan Tannehill 1.9 13 8
    14 Matt Ryan 1.6 15 11
    15 Dak Prescott 0.9 14 17
    16 Teddy Bridgewater 0.9 16 18
    17 Baker Mayfield 0.2 17 13
    18 Jameis Winston -0.6 18 55
    19 Jalen Hurts -0.8 23 70
    20 Jacoby Brissett -0.8 20 21
    21 Joe Burrow -1.1 19 22
    22 Ryan Fitzpatrick -1.3 22 16
    23 Taysom Hill -1.3 25 20
    24 Cam Newton -1.7 26 19
    25 Trevor Siemian -1.9 30 N/A
    26 Mac Jones -1.9 24 N/A
    27 Jimmy Garoppolo -2 57 25
    28 Colt McCoy -2 50 51
    29 Tyrod Taylor -2 21 56
    30 Carson Wentz -2.1 62 81
    31 Tua Tagovailoa -2.1 27 50
    32 Chad Henne -2.2 28 29
    33 Mike White -2.2 31 N/A
    34 John Wolford -2.3 29 24
    35 Mason Rudolph -2.4 32 26
    36 Marcus Mariota -2.4 33 27
    37 C.J. Beathard -2.5 34 30
    38 Case Keenum -2.5 35 60
    39 Jeff Driskel -2.5 36 32
    40 Kyle Allen -2.6 38 35
    41 Gardner Minshew -2.6 37 33
    42 Blaine Gabbert -2.6 39 37
    43 Brett Hundley -2.6 40 36
    44 Matt Schaub -2.6 41 38
    45 Josh McCown -2.6 42 39
    46 Joe Webb -2.7 44 42
    47 Joshua Dobbs -2.7 45 43
    48 Blake Bortles -2.7 46 45
    49 Sean Mannion -2.7 48 46
    50 Chase Daniel -2.7 47 40
    51 AJ McCarron -2.7 49 48
    52 Matt Barkley -2.7 51 49
    53 Geno Smith -2.7 52 N/A
    54 Nate Sudfeld -2.8 53 52
    55 Garrett Gilbert -2.8 54 54
    56 Josh Rosen -2.8 55 58
    57 Brian Hoyer -2.8 56 59
    58 Chris Streveler -2.9 59 62
    59 Joe Flacco -2.9 60 63
    60 David Blough -2.9 58 61
    61 Tyler Huntley -2.9 61 57
    62 Jordan Love -3 N/A N/A
    63 Robert Griffin III -3 64 64
    64 Drew Lock -3 63 23
    65 Brett Rypien -3 65 65
    66 Jarrett Stidham -3.1 66 66
    67 Will Grier -3.1 67 69
    68 Ben DiNucci -3.1 68 68
    69 Nick Mullens -3.2 69 72
    70 Andy Dalton -3.2 72 47
    71 Alex Smith -3.3 71 74
    72 Jared Goff -3.3 70 31
    73 Brandon Allen -3.3 73 75
    74 Mike Glennon -3.4 74 73
    75 Ryan Finley -3.4 75 77
    76 Trey Lance -3.4 76 N/A
    77 Nick Foles -3.5 77 76
    78 Zach Wilson -3.5 78 N/A
    79 Cooper Rush -3.5 79 N/A
    80 Dwayne Haskins -3.8 80 78
    81 Daniel Jones -3.8 82 71
    82 Phillip Walker -3.9 83 67
    83 Jake Luton -3.9 81 79
    84 Mitchell Trubisky -4.2 85 80
    85 Trevor Lawrence -4.9 84 N/A
    86 Sam Darnold -4.9 86 82
    87 Justin Fields -5.5 87 N/A
    88 Davis Mills -5.5 88 N/A
    89 Ben Roethlisberger -5.8 89 53
    90 Taylor Heinicke -6.6 90 28
  • SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    SIS Football Newsletter: Week 9

    We’ve reached the halfway point of the season and things have started to go off the rails. Key injuries, illnesses, and tragedies have been grabbing headlines all week.

    The results on the field last week were just as polarizing. Four backup quarterbacks pulled off victories, highlighted by Mike White and the Jets toppling the AFC-leading Bengals, and Trevor Siemien coming on in relief to beat the defending champs.

    The Cardinals suffered a dramatic defeat to finally add a blemish to their record, but they held on as the Total Points Leaders.

    Power Rankings: Total Points per Game (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1000)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+650)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)
    4. Buffalo Bills  (+500)
    5. Dallas Cowboys  (+1000)

    FEATURED GAME – BRONCOS at COWBOYS

    Denver managed to stop a four-game skid but traded Von Miller at the deadline, leading to uncertainty about which direction their season is headed. Meanwhile, backup QB Cooper Rush pulled off an improbable win to send the Cowboys to 6-1, their best start since 2016.

    There is a significant contrast in the public perception of these two teams, and rightfully so based on the notes we highlighted in the intro. However, Denver (8th) ranks closer to Dallas (5th) in terms of Team Total Points than most would think.

    Dallas has a potent offense that’s eclipsed 20 points in all seven of its games, but Denver has allowed their opponents to reach that mark just twice.

    Denver’s already poor pass rush took a hit when they dealt Von Miller, so they’ll need to make up for it by limiting the Dallas rushing attack, something they’ve done well as the seventh-ranked run defense.

    The spread is set quite high at Dallas -10, and not very reflective of the advanced metrics. The public is heavily backing Dallas nonetheless; we’ll fade the public and side with Denver to cover.

    THE PICK:  BRONCOS +10


    Patrick Price Check: Where is Mahomes struggling this season?

    Is it time to press the panic button in Kansas City? Everyone was looking for the Chiefs to assert their dominance on Monday night, but the performance was hardly a confidence builder despite the winning result. With half the season left to play, FiveThirtyEight gives the two-time defending AFC champs a 51% chance to make the playoffs, and just a 2% chance to reclaim the Super Bowl title. This time last year those numbers were probably closer to 100% and 20%.

    It’s easy to place the blame on a defense that ranks 24th in Total Points, but we haven’t seen the same Patrick Mahomes that we’re used to seeing fill up the highlight reel. Instead we’ve seen him already match his career-high in turnovers (12).

    Mahomes ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned, just ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott. That’s a solid ranking and even more solid company, but it’s not up the level of expectation he set after finishing 1st, 3rd, and 1st in his three seasons.

    The game-by-game Passing Points Earned totals begin to look more troubling.

    Mahomes has logged 52 career regular season games with 15+ pass attempts. His last four games have all ranked among the 10 worst in his career and none of his 2021 performances have cracked his top-10.

    Focusing in on Mahomes’ performance by throw depth gives us more insight into where he’s struggling.

    In his first three seasons, Mahomes ranked as the top overall QB in terms of Passing Points Earned and was excelling at all levels of the field.

    His status has regressed at all three levels this season, but most notably, his intermediate passing rank has slipped from 1st all the way to 20th.

    Mahomes had registered a 71% On-Target Throw Rate on intermediate passes from 2018-20 but has seen that rate come in at just 63% through his first eight games (24th-best), while delivering 0 TDs and 2 INTs.

    Mahomes has also been much less effective under duress this season despite experiencing the lowest pressure rate of his career.

    His 44% Positive Play Rate under pressure from 2018-20 ranked second, only narrowly behind Deshaun Watson. That rate has dipped to 35% this season, representing another category where Mahomes has regressed from elite to league average.

    Here are Mahomes’ rate stats under pressure during each year of his career (pulled from the SIS DataHub Pro).

    Sign up for a 7-day free trial of the SIS DataHub Pro

    The Chiefs were handed a break with the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game, but Mahomes will have his hands full with the Packers defense that ranks top-10 in both Pass Rush and Pass Coverage Points Saved.


    Boom Goes the Dynamite: Spotlight on big play receivers

    When discussing the top fantasy receivers, there’s obviously no more important figure than Fantasy Points.

    It’s useful (and fun) to understand how Fantasy Points were scored to see who’s primed for continued success and who may flame out.

    We’re going to look at the top four receivers who have been piling up big play opportunities, and how well they’ve been converting them.

    The three metrics we’ll focus on are:
    (1) Boom Rate: The percentage of targets that result in 1+ EPA (expected points added)
    (2) End Zone Team Share: The percentage of the team’s passes into the end zone that have been thrown to this player.
    (3) Deep Ball Team Share: The percentage of the team’s deep passes (15+ air yards) that have been thrown to this player.

    #1 Ja’Marr Chase

    Chase was the runaway top choice; he ranks 2nd in deep ball team share, and 3rd in both Boom Rate and end zone team share.

    The Bengals have several talented receivers, but it’s clear that the rookie is Joe Burrow’s favorite option. Chase has 12 deep ball receptions, which is more than all of his teammates combined.

    #2  Marquise Brown

    No receiver has had more total big play chances than Hollywood Brown. Brown ranks 1st in end zone team share and 7th in deep ball team share.

    However, Brown hasn’t been as effective hauling in these opportunities. Brown has dropped four deep balls, one of which was in the end zone. This has contributed to his pedestrian Boom Rate that ranks just 25th/100.

    Brown has zero drops otherwise, so there’s plenty of hope for future upside here.

    #3  Adam Thielen

    Everyone seems to forget about Thielen on fantasy draft day and when constructing DFS lineups, but no receiver has racked up more end zone targets than his 25 over the last two seasons.

    Justin Jefferson was also a candidate for this list, evidence that the Vikings offense is funneled through their two top receivers. Thielen has the slight edge in both end zone targets (5 to 4) and deep ball targets (17 to 16).

    Aside from these two superstars, the rest of the Vikings team has combined for just two end zone targets and 10 deep ball targets.

    #4  Cooper Kupp

    Based on Kupp’s fantasy point production, it’s almost surprising he’s not higher on this list. Kupp has 37 more PPR points than the second-best fantasy receiver, Tyreek Hill, and that margin represents the gap between Hill and the 8th-ranked receiver.

    Kupp’s 27 PPR points per game is the highest average ever by a receiver through the first eight weeks.

    If there’s one area holding Kupp back, it’s been that he’s sharing a big chunk of the Rams end zone targets with his teammates. Kupp and Robert Woods each have six, while Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee have four apiece.

    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS Weekly Football Projections: SIS has launched weekly NFL and College Football projections on our website. You can get projections broken down by category for all fantasy-relevant players, and they’re also a great resource for prop betting.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 8 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 9.
    • Sharp Football: Check out our three prop bet recommendations for this Sunday’s games!
  • Off The Charts Podcast: Backup QB Revolution & Week 9 Preview

    Off The Charts Podcast: Backup QB Revolution & Week 9 Preview

    On today’s episode, Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) and Mark Simon (@markasimonsays) welcome Corey March (@corey_march1) back to the show to give a fantasy and gambling perspective on Week 9 of the NFL season. The group opens by looking at the success of backup QBs in Week 8 () before shifting to a recap of the Trade Deadline’s biggest moves (). They then preview the top games of NFL Week 9: Packers-Chiefs (), Titans-Rams (), and Vikings-Ravens () before closing with Scouts vs. Stats on Aaron Rodgers (). Thanks for listening. You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com and don’t forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com footballoutsiders.com sportsinfosolutionsblog.com SISDataHub.com

  • Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    Prop recommendations: Jets vs Colts

    By Steven Schwarz

    With just a few hours before kickoff, here are two quick prop plays that come recommended via use of SISBets.com and DraftKings.

    1) Michael Carter, score a touchdown, +160.

    It appears that the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to Michael Carter’s “takeover” of the Jets’ backfield. At SIS, our analysis predicts he’ll get 14 rushing attempts and six targets and will combine for 100 yards (55.5 rushing yards and 44.9 receiving yards) including a 73.3% chance of scoring a touchdown. He has scored in three of the last four games.

    Based on these numbers, Carter should be a -123 favorite to score, but the oddsmakers have him listed at +160.

    2) Jonathan Taylor, over 2.5 receptions, +125. SB -194

    We think of Taylor as a first- and second-down running back with Nyheim Hines as the receiving back, but in 2021, Taylor is doing double-duty. In addition to 15 rushing attempts per game, he’s caught at least three balls in 5-of-8 games this season and four-of-the-last five. SIS data has him getting 4.6 targets and catching 3.4 balls for 37 yards.

    A fair market price would be -194, but the current odds are +125.

  • SIS Football Newsletter – Week 7

    SIS Football Newsletter – Week 7

     

    Six weeks are in the books, and with the new 18-week season, this means we have an official one-third marker. Some of the bigger surprises so far include the Chiefs with a pedestrian 3-3 record and the Cardinals as the last remaining unbeaten team.

    Arizona minted an impressive 37-14 road victory against Cleveland (as 3-point underdogs), which vaulted them back into the top spot in the Total Points Power Rankings. Even following a loss to the Titans, it’s the Bills (+550) that DK Sportsbook has given the best odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

    Total Points Power Rankings (with Super Bowl odds):

    1. Arizona Cardinals (+1100)
    2. Los Angeles Rams (+850)
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600)
    4. Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
    5. Las Vegas Raiders (+10000)
    6. Buffalo Bills (+550)
    FEATURED GAME – BENGALS at RAVENS

    The Ravens were so impressive in Week 6 that they earned “winner stays on” treatment. Baltimore disposed of one sophomore phenom QB and will look to do the same with Joe Burrow as they welcome in the upstart Bengals for a divisional showdown.
    Last week, the Ravens were able to take advantage of a weak Chargers run defense (31st in Run Defense Points Saved). Baltimore posted nearly five yards per carry and moved the chains with 14 first downs on the ground. They should see a bit more resistance this week against the 10th-ranked Bengals run defense.

    This season, Cincinnati has either won or lost in nail-biting fashion, while Baltimore’s wins have mainly relied on late-game heroics.

    There’s also a savvy betting trigger favoring Cincinnati, with the majority of bets having come in on Baltimore (55%) while the bulk of money has backed the Bengals (66% per Action Network).

    The Ravens dominated this matchup last season with two wins that went for a combined score of 65-6, but we’re taking the points here and siding with a young Bengals team that has already matched their 2020 win total.

    THE PICK:  BENGALS +6.5

    Optimal Quarterback Play: Assessing Throw Depth vs Accuracy

    It’s no secret that success in today’s NFL is predicated on throwing the football. It should also come as no surprise that deeper throws are more productive than short ones. The least surprising of all is that accurate throws result in bigger gains.
    Aggressive and accurate downfield passing is the key to moving the chains and winning football games.

    The graphic below plots quarterbacks according to their average throw depth and accuracy.
    There are plenty of other factors at play, but it’s interesting to point out that the three teams with the highest average throw depth have a combined record of 13-5 while the three lowest on the chart come in at 4-12.

    Let’s dig in on a few standout QBs:

    Lamar Jackson leads all QBs with an average throw depth of 9.9 yards. He has been criticized for his inaccuracy in the past but has padded his aggressive play this season with the seventh best on-target throw rate (80%).

    Side note: Jackson also ranks seventh in rushing yards and first in missed tackles forced.

    Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater are the other two QBs who rank top-10 in both metrics. Wilson is a regular on this leaderboard, but few expected this from Bridgewater who has the reputation of an accurate, albeit conservative passer.

    Among 35 qualified passers, Bridgewater ranked last in average throw depth in 2019 and 27th in 2020. He now ranks fourth, which seems like a product of the Pat Schurmur offense after Drew Lock led the league in average throw depth last season.

    Target Acquired: Cornerbacks allowing the most production

    Last week we discussed the fantasy value of looking below the surface for stats that provide an advantage over the competition. Many DFS players are influenced by generic stats like the “opponent position rank” you’ll find on the DraftKings lineup page, but there’s more specific data out there that can provide contest-winning insight.

    We started by dissecting fantasy points allowed by offensive position, and this week we’ll dig into a few cornerbacks who are getting picked on by opposing offenses.

    Anthony Averrett
    Team: Baltimore Ravens
    Alignment: Left side of the offense (78%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Targeted on a league-high 43 passes.
    • Primary defender on 17% of passes against Baltimore.
    • Allowed a league-high seven completions of 15+ air yards
    • Allowed 67 PPR fantasy points (third-most)

    Matchup: Ja’Marr Chase ($6,200 on DK) has lined up on the left side of the offense on 70% of his snaps, which will put him opposite Averett on the majority of his routes this weekend. When on the field, Chase has seen a team-high 25% target share and he leads all receivers with eight deep ball receptions.

    Brandin Echols
    Team: New York Jets
    Alignment: Left side of the offense (100%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Primary defender on 19% of passes against New York (next highest is 12%)
    • Allowing 1.6 yards per coverage snap (third-worst)

    Matchup: Nelson Agholor has lined up on the left side of the offense on 70% of his snaps, which means he’ll draw the most coverage against Echols on Sunday. Agholor hasn’t provided much fantasy production this season, but at $3,700 on DK, he’s worth consideration if you’re looking for a budget WR.

    Xavien Howard
    Team: Miami Dolphins
    Alignment: Right side of the offense (73%)
    Key Metrics:

    • Primary defender on 16% of passes against Miami
    • Allowed a league-high 71 PPR fantasy points
    • Allowed a league-high four touchdowns
    • Allowing 14.7 yards per reception (10th-highest)

    Matchup: It’s shocking for Howard to appear here after finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2020. Howard plays a fair amount on the left side, but it’s reasonable to expect him to primarily shadow Calvin Ridley on Sunday given their lack of other wide receiver options. Many still associate Howard with last season’s dominance and therefore will not consider Ridley for their lineups, making him a contrarian play at a season-low price tag of $6,600 on DK.
    More from the SIS community
    • Weekly Total Points Statpack: Sign up to receive updated Total Points metrics delivered to your inbox weekly. Get a free, in-depth look at team strengths and weaknesses, and the top players at each position.
    • SIS DataHub Pro: The uncontested best research tool in the game. Sign up for a free seven-day trial to test drive this luxury vehicle. The SIS DataHub Pro has countless proprietary NFL and CFB stats, and dozens of advanced filters.
    • Sharp Football: Back at it with three more QB prop bets to target this week!
    • Week 7 Betting Opportunities: Alex Vigderman used SIS data to break downs three intriguing games to bet on this weekend.
    • Off The Charts: Tune in to this week’s podcast to hear us unpack Week 6 and look ahead to what’s to come in Week 7.
  • Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    Can’t We Just Celebrate Lamar Jackson’s Excellence?

    By BRYCE ROSSLER

    “The league will figure him out this year.”

    That was how anonymous league personnel chose to besmirch NFL MVP Lamar Jackson in an ESPN story this past offseason. Of course, this sentiment was as toothless as the shadowy figures who made it, and what was already a disqualifying thought looks even worse with Jackson once again playing at an MVP level. 

    Jackson’s excellence is nothing new, and neither is the ugly reality that black quarterbacks are held to a higher standard than their white counterparts.

    Codified language and dog whistling pervade discussions of Jackson’s game. The notion that he’s just a scrambler could be called a common misconception were it not for the fact that such a label is often deliberate and made in bad faith. Some even refer to Jackson as a ‘running back,’ which is football-illiterate at best and racist at worst.

    If you don’t believe me, consider how differently Jackson’s 2018 classmate Josh Allen has been talked about. Some of the criticism that still dogs the former applied to the latter earlier in his career. Allen was regarded as an inaccurate gunslinger who struggled to read the field and play within structure. 

    In 2021, Allen and Jackson both rank in the top five in both designed QB runs and scrambles, but Allen is worse than Jackson in adjusted time to throw, turnover-worthy play rate, and virtually every accuracy metric.

    And yet, so many were ready to accept that Allen was suddenly good after one (1) Pro Bowl season, despite struggling mightily at both the college and NFL levels until that point. Why, then, do some people continue to levy similar criticisms at a former Heisman winner and NFL MVP?

    Regardless, it would be a disservice to Jackson to focus on one specific player comparison. Through six games, Jackson ranks 2nd among all players in Total Points, 6th in Passing Total Points (5th on a per-play basis), and 5th in Rushing Total Points (and that includes running backs). And while it’s important to note that he’s outdueling many of his peers, he’s also outdoing himself.

    Jackson ranks in the top six in both Passing Total Points and Rushing Total Points.

    The Ravens signal-caller is performing even better than he did during his MVP season. His On-Target +/- rate is +3.4%, which ranks 7th in the league and is up more than a full percentage point from 2019 (+2.3%). 

    For those unfamiliar, that stat measures a quarterback’s accuracy taking into account the difficulty of the throw, including factors like distance, pressure, and coverage.

    Jackson’s turnover-worthy throw rate has slightly increased from 2019 (1.7%) to 2021 (2.1%), and that’s meaningful because that’s a couple potential extra turnovers a season. But he’s still among the ten best in this metric despite having gotten more aggressive about throwing deep and attacking the middle of the field, two danger areas for quarterbacks. His league-leading average depth of target (9.9) is up more than a full yard over 2019, and 59% of his passes have hit in the middle of the field, compared to 56% in 2019. And in case you were wondering, he’s still top ten at protecting the football across all touches if we include fumbles.

    He’s also operating with improved timing. While Jackson’s playstyle will never lend itself to a low adjusted time-to-throw stat, he’s getting the ball out 0.10 seconds faster than he did in 2020, the first year SIS began collecting snap to throw times. The average person rarely ever thinks about time in fractions of a second, but a split second is a long time in a game of inches While Jackson has never really struggled with seeing the field, this could be seen as a sign that he’s processing faster than he did before. 

    Of course, Jackson has never really had a problem playing from the pocket. He ranked 4th in 2019 in Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps from the pocket (13.7) and has continued that trend this year, ranking 5th (14.0).

    So, regardless of what your perception of these baselines was coming into this season, there’s a lot of statistical evidence to support the idea that Jackson, at age 24, is still improving. Furthermore, he’s just generally been more efficient than he was during his MVP campaign. His Passing Total Points / 60 Snaps has improved from 13.1 in 2019 (which ranked 5th) to 15.3 this year (4th).

    Of course, I would be remiss not to mention that he’s still arguably the most dynamic runner in the league. His broken + missed tackle rate of 33% comfortably leads the league by five percentage points, but I don’t want to harp too much on his running ability because Jackson is so much more than just a runner. 

    Jackson is one of the game’s brightest young stars and a legitimate dual-threat who is beating teams with his arm and his legs, both inside and outside of structure. He can hurt you from the pocket or on the move, and he’s a threat on designed runs and scrambles alike. Put simply: he’s damn hard to stop.

    There. I just figured Lamar Jackson out.